Public Health and Sport Sciences

Study on Health Impacts of Food Taxes and Subsidies affecting Ultra Processed Food

The SHIFTS-UPF project is a collaboration between the University of Exeter (grant holder), the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), the University of Oxford, and the University of Reading. The project aims to evaluate how fiscal policies, such as taxes on ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and subsidies for healthier alternatives, could influence dietary behaviour, health outcomes, health inequalities, and wider economic and environmental benefits.

The study will combine quantitative and qualitative approaches to understand both the potential impact and acceptability of these policies. We will analyse consumer purchasing data to examine patterns of UPF consumption and explore how these vary across population groups. The study involves working with and speaking to the public through a series of focus groups discussions to understand perceptions of UPFs and the acceptability of fiscal measures, particularly among disadvantaged communities.

Working closely with policymakers and stakeholders and using deliberative methods the project will co-develop a range of realistic tax and subsidy scenarios. These scenarios will then be modelled to estimate their effects on dietary intake, disease outcomes, environmental indicators, and costs to households and the NHS.

Researchers at Exeter, LSHTM, Oxford, and Reading will contribute expertise in health economics, public health, behavioural science, and policy modelling. The team will adapt and extend existing consumer demand, health, and environmental models to capture the distinct role of UPFs in shaping health and sustainability outcomes.

The SHIFTS-UPF project will generate robust, policy-relevant evidence to inform future food policy, supporting efforts to improve population health, reduce health inequalities, and promote more sustainable food systems.

Research Team

This project brings together researchers across multiple institutions with expertise in public health, mixed methods, PPIE, health economics, and policy modelling.

  • Professor Rich Smith and Professor Antonieta Medina-Lara – Co-Principal Investigators and Dr Daniel Derbyshire – Co-Investigator, University of Exeter
  • Professor Laura Cornelsen – Co-Investigator, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
  • Dr Asha Kaur, Dr Ben Amies-Cull, Dr Michael Clark and Dr Jessica Renzella – Co-Investigators; Dr Smruti Bulsari, -Researcher, University of Oxford
  • Dr Cherry Law – Co-Investigator, University of Reading

The study team also includes two members of the public who work with us to ensure our research questions and methods are relevant and useful to the public and how to share the study findings. We will also work with a young person advisory group to get further input on the study methods and results. 

Plain English Summary

Some foods are made in factories using processes and ingredients we don’t usually use at home. These are called ultra-processed foods (UPFs). Examples include foods like fizzy drinks and packaged cakes that we already think may be bad for our health, as well as staples like some bread or yoghurts.

Eating too many UPFs is linked to health problems such as obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. This also increases costs for the NHS. UPFs can also harm the environment, as they often require more energy, water, and packaging than fresh foods.

Food prices influence what people buy and eat. Making UPFs more expensive, or healthier foods cheaper, could help people make healthier choices. Governments can do this through taxes and subsidies. By balancing out taxes and subsidies, we ideally would keep overall food spending the same or less, particularly for people on lower incomes.

Why are we doing this research?
We want to understand whether changing food prices can improve diets, reduce health problems, and lower NHS costs.

What will we do?
Our research combines reviewing existing evidence, working with the public and policymakers, and using computer models to estimate the potential impact of these changes.

We will study what people eat, how much they spend on UPFs, and how this affects their health. We will also explore how policies like taxes and subsidies might affect different groups of people.

Who are we?
We are researchers from four UK universities, working with members of the public, including young people, to guide the research.

How will we share the results?
We will share our findings through websites, social media, public events, and scientific publications to help inform government and industry decisions.

Scientific Summary

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are widely consumed and associated with adverse health outcomes, including obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, as well as increased NHS costs and environmental impacts. While fiscal policies such as taxes and subsidies have been used to reduce consumption of high fat, sugar and salt (HFSS) products, there is limited evidence on their effectiveness in targeting UPFs, which are defined by processing rather than nutrient content.

This project aims to evaluate the potential impact of fiscal policies—including taxes on UPFs and subsidies for healthier alternatives—on dietary behaviour, health outcomes, environmental sustainability, and economic costs, with a particular focus on health inequalities.

Throughout the course of the project, we will:

  • Analysis of Kantar consumer purchasing data to understand current purchasing patterns of ultra-processed foods (UPFs).
  • Review of the policy and scientific literature to identify UPF-related policies that have been proposed or implemented internationally.
  • Public focus groups to explore public views, concerns, and perceptions regarding UPFs and potential policy responses.
  • Deliberative engagement with policy and industry stakeholders to prioritise and co-design feasible fiscal policy scenarios.
  • Consumer demand modelling using the Quasi-Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) to estimate how consumers may respond to different policy scenarios.
  • Long-term population health modelling using the PRIMEtime model to estimate the health impacts of changes in UPF consumption.
  • Integration of findings to estimate how different policy scenarios may influence consumption patterns, health outcomes, and environmental impacts across population groups.

Building on existing expertise in modelling HFSS-related policies, we will adapt and extend established models to capture the unique characteristics of UPFs.

The project will generate robust, policy-relevant evidence to inform the design of fiscal strategies aimed at improving diet, reducing health inequalities, and lowering NHS and societal costs. Findings will be shared with policymakers, the public, and the research community to support evidence-based decision-making.