BACKGROUND: Expert opinion is that about 20% of emergency stroke patients should receive thrombolysis. Currently, 11% to 12% of patients in England and Wales receive thrombolysis, ranging from 2% to 24% between hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess how much variation is due to differences in local patient populations, and how much is due to differences in clinical decision-making and stroke pathway performance, while estimating a realistic target thrombolysis use. METHODS: Anonymised data for 246 676 emergency stroke admissions to 132 acute hospitals in England and Wales between 2016 and 2018 was obtained from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme data. We used machine learning to learn decisions on who to give thrombolysis to at each hospital. We used clinical pathway simulation to model effects of changing pathway performance. Qualitative research was used to assess clinician attitudes to these methods. Three changes were modeled: (1) arrival-to-treatment in 30 minutes, (2) proportion of patients with determined stroke onset times set to at least the national upper quartile, (3) thrombolysis decisions made based on majority vote of a benchmark set of hospitals. RESULTS: of the modeled changes, any single change was predicted to increase national thrombolysis use from 11.6% to between 12.3% to 14.5% (clinical decision-making having the most effect). Combined, these changes would be expected to increase thrombolysis to 18.3%, but there would still be significant variation between hospitals depending on local patient population. Clinicians engaged well with the modeling, but those from hospitals with lower thrombolysis use were most cautious about the methods. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning and clinical pathway simulation may be applied at scale to national stroke audit data, allowing extended use and analysis of audit data. Stroke thrombolysis rates of at least 18% look achievable in England and Wales, but each hospital should have its own target.

BackgroundStroke is a common cause of adult disability. Expert opinion is that about 20% of patients should receive thrombolysis to break up a clot causing the stroke. Currently, 11–12% of patients in England and Wales receive this treatment, ranging between 2% and 24% between hospitals.ObjectivesWe sought to enhance the national stroke audit by providing further analysis of the key sources of inter-hospital variation to determine how a target of 20% of stroke patients receiving thrombolysis may be reached.DesignWe modelled three aspects of the thrombolysis pathway, using machine learning and clinical pathway simulation. In addition, the project had a qualitative research arm, with the objective of understanding clinicians’ attitudes to use of modelling and machine learning applied to the national stroke audit.Participants and data sourceAnonymised data were collected for 246,676 emergency stroke admissions to acute stroke teams in England and Wales between 2016 and 2018, obtained from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme.ResultsUse of thrombolysis could be predicted with 85% accuracy for those patients with a chance of receiving thrombolysis (i.e. those arriving within 4 hours of stroke onset). Machine learning models allowed prediction of likely treatment choice for each patient at all hospitals. A clinical pathway simulation predicted hospital thrombolysis use with an average absolute error of 0.5 percentage points. We found that about half of the inter-hospital variation in thrombolysis use came from differences in local patient populations, and half from in-hospital processes and decision-making. Three changes were applied to all hospitals in the model: (1) arrival to treatment in 30 minutes, (2) proportion of patients with determined stroke onset times set to at least the national upper quartile and (3) thrombolysis decisions made based on majority vote of a benchmark set of 30 hospitals. Any single change alone was predicted to increase national thrombolysis use from 11.6% to between 12.3% and 14.5% (with clinical decision-making having the most effect). Combined, these changes would be expected to increase thrombolysis to 18.3% (and to double the clinical benefit of thrombolysis, as speed increases also improve clinical benefit independently of the proportion of patients receiving thrombolysis); however, there would still be significant variation between hospitals depending on local patient population. For each hospital, the effect of each change could be predicted alone or in combination. Qualitative research with 19 clinicians showed that engagement with, and trust in, the model was greatest in physicians from units with higher thrombolysis rates. Physicians also wanted to see a machine learning model predicting outcome with probability of adverse effect of thrombolysis to counter a fear that driving thrombolysis use up may cause more harm than good.LimitationsModels may be built using data available in the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme only. Not all factors affecting use of thrombolysis are contained in Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme data and the model, therefore, provides information on patterns of thrombolysis use in hospitals, but is not suitable for, or intended as, a decision aid to thrombolysis.ConclusionsMachine learning and clinical pathway simulation may be applied at scale to national audit data, allowing extended use and analysis of audit data. Stroke thrombolysis rates of at least 18% look achievable in England and Wales, but each hospital should have its own target.Future workFuture studies should extend machine learning modelling to predict the patient-level outcome and probability of adverse effects of thrombolysis, and apply co-production techniques, with clinicians and other stakeholders, to communicate model outputs.FundingThis project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme and will be published in full inHealth and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 10, No. 31. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BACKGROUND: Medication mismanagement is a major cause of both hospital admission and nursing home placement of frail older adults. Medication reviews by community pharmacists aim to maximise therapeutic benefit but also minimise harm. Pharmacist-led medication reviews have been the focus of several systematic reviews, but none have focussed on the home setting. REVIEW METHODS: to determine the effectiveness of pharmacist home visits for individuals at risk of medication-related problems we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Thirteen databases were searched from inception to December 2018. Forward and backward citation of included studies was also performed. Articles were screened for inclusion independently by two reviewers. Randomised controlled studies of home visits by pharmacists for individuals at risk of medication-related problems were eligible for inclusion. Data extraction and quality appraisal were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed where sufficient data allowed and narrative synthesis summarised all remaining data. RESULTS: Twelve RCTs (reported in 15 articles), involving 3410 participants, were included in the review. The frequency, content and purpose of the home visit varied considerably. The data from eight trials were suitable for meta-analysis of the effects on hospital admissions and mortality, and from three trials for the effects on quality of life. Overall there was no evidence of reduction in hospital admissions (risk ratio (RR) of 1.01 (95%CI 0.86 to 1.20, I2 = 69.0%, p = 0.89; 8 studies, 2314 participants)), or mortality (RR of 1.01 (95%CI 0.81 to 1.26, I2 = 0%, p = 0.94; 8 studies, 2314 participants)). There was no consistent evidence of an effect on quality of life, medication adherence or knowledge. CONCLUSION: a systematic review of twelve RCTs assessing the impact of pharmacist home visits for individuals at risk of medication related problems found no evidence of effect on hospital admission or mortality rates, and limited evidence of effect on quality of life. Future studies should focus on using more robust methods to assess relevant outcomes.

Objectives Randomised controlled trials in healthcare increasingly include economic evaluations. Some show small differences which are not statistically significant. Yet these sometimes come to paradoxical conclusions such as: 'the intervention is not clinically effective' but 'is probably cost-effective'. This study aims to quantify the extent of non-significant results and the types of conclusions drawn from them. Design Cross-sectional retrospective analysis of randomised trials published by the UK's National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme. We defined as 'doubly null' those trials that found non-statistically significant differences in both primary outcome and cost per patient. Paradoxical was defined as concluding in favour of an intervention, usually compared with placebo or usual care. No human participants were involved. Our sample was 226 randomised trial projects published by the Health Technology Assessment programme 2004 to 2017. All are available free online. Results the 226 projects contained 193 trials with a full economic evaluation. of these 76 (39%) had at least one 'doubly null' comparison. These 76 trials contained 94 comparisons. In these 30 (32%) drew economic conclusions in favour of an intervention. Overall report conclusions split roughly equally between those favouring the intervention (14), and those favouring either the control (7) or uncertainty (9). Discussion Trials with 'doubly null' results and paradoxical conclusions are not uncommon. The differences observed in cost and quality-adjustedlife year were small and non-statistically significant. Almost all these trials were also published in leading peer-reviewed journals. Although some guidelines for reporting economic results require cost-effectiveness estimates regardless of statistical significance, the interpretability of paradoxical results has nowhere been addressed. Conclusions Reconsideration is required of the interpretation of cost-effectiveness analyses in randomised controlled trials with 'doubly null' results, particularly when economics favours a novel intervention.

BACKGROUND: Missed hospital outpatient appointments is a commonly reported problem in healthcare services around the world; for example, they cost the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK millions of pounds every year and can cause operation and scheduling difficulties worldwide. In 2002, the World Health Organization (WHO) published a report highlighting the need for a model of care that more readily meets the needs of people with chronic conditions. Patient-initiated appointment systems may be able to meet this need at the same time as improving the efficiency of hospital appointments. OBJECTIVES: to assess the effects of patient-initiated appointment systems compared with consultant-led appointment systems for people with chronic or recurrent conditions managed in secondary care. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, and six other databases. We contacted authors of identified studies and conducted backwards and forwards citation searching. We searched for current/ongoing research in two trial registers. Searches were run on 13 March 2019. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised trials, published and unpublished in any language that compared the use of patient-initiated appointment systems to consultant-led appointment systems for adults with chronic or recurrent conditions managed in secondary care if they reported one or more of the following outcomes: physical measures of health status or disease activity (including harms), quality of life, service utilisation or cost, adverse effects, patient or clinician satisfaction, or failures of the 'system'. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened all references at title/abstract stage and full-text stage using prespecified inclusion criteria. We resolved disagreements though discussion. Two review authors independently completed data extraction for all included studies. We discussed and resolved discrepancies with a third review author. Where needed, we contacted authors of included papers to provide more information. Two review authors independently assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care 'Risk of bias' tool, resolving any discrepancies with a third review author. Two review authors independently assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: the 17 included randomised trials (3854 participants; mean age 41 to 76 years; follow-up 12 to 72 months) covered six broad health conditions: cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease. The certainty of the evidence using GRADE ratings was mainly low to very low. The results suggest that patient-initiated clinics may make little or no difference to anxiety (odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 1.12; 5 studies, 1019 participants; low-certainty evidence) or depression (OR 0.79 95% CI 0.51 to 1.23; 6 studies, 1835 participants; low-certainty evidence) compared to the consultant-led appointment system. The results also suggest that patient-initiated clinics may make little or no difference to quality of life (standardised mean difference (SMD) 0.12, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.25; 7 studies, 1486 participants; low-certainty evidence) compared to the consultant-led appointment system. Results for service utilisation (contacts) suggest there may be little or no difference in service utilisation in terms of contacts between the patient-initiated and consultant-led appointment groups; however, the effect is not certain as the rate ratio ranged from 0.68 to 3.83 across the studies (median rate ratio 1.11, interquartile (IQR) 0.93 to 1.37; 15 studies, 3348 participants; low-certainty evidence). It is uncertain if service utilisation (costs) are reduced in the patient-initiated compared to the consultant-led appointment groups (8 studies, 2235 participants; very low-certainty evidence). The results suggest that adverse events such as relapses in some conditions (inflammatory bowel disease and cancer) may have little or no reduction in the patient-initiated appointment group in comparison with the consultant-led appointment group (MD -0.20, 95% CI -0.54 to 0.14; 3 studies, 888 participants; low-certainty evidence). The results are unclear about any differences the intervention may make to patient satisfaction (SMD 0.05, 95% CI -0.41 to 0.52; 2 studies, 375 participants) because the certainty of the evidence is low, as each study used different questions to collect their data at different time points and across different health conditions. Some areas of risk of bias across all the included studies was consistently high (i.e. for blinding of participants and personnel and blinding of outcome assessment, other areas were largely of low risk of bias or were affected by poor reporting making the assessment unclear). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Patient-initiated appointment systems may have little or no effect on patient anxiety, depression and quality of life compared to consultant-led appointment systems. Other aspects of disease status and experience also appear to show little or no difference between patient-initiated and consultant-led appointment systems. Patient-initiated appointment systems may have little or no effect on service utilisation in terms of service contact and there is uncertainty about costs compared to consultant-led appointment systems. Patient-initiated appointment systems may have little or no effect on adverse events such as relapse or patient satisfaction compared to consultant-led appointment systems.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the application of clinical pathway simulation in machine learning, using clinical audit data, in order to identify key drivers for improving use and speed of thrombolysis at individual hospitals. DESIGN: Computer simulation modelling and machine learning. SETTING: Seven acute stroke units. PARTICIPANTS: Anonymised clinical audit data for 7864 patients. RESULTS: Three factors were pivotal in governing thrombolysis use: (1) the proportion of patients with a known stroke onset time (range 44%-73%), (2) pathway speed (for patients arriving within 4 hours of onset: per-hospital median arrival-to-scan ranged from 11 to 56 min; median scan-to-thrombolysis ranged from 21 to 44 min) and (3) predisposition to use thrombolysis (thrombolysis use ranged from 31% to 52% for patients with stroke scanned with 30 min left to administer thrombolysis). A pathway simulation model could predict the potential benefit of improving individual stages of the clinical pathway speed, whereas a machine learning model could predict the benefit of 'exporting' clinical decision making from one hospital to another, while allowing for differences in patient population between hospitals. By applying pathway simulation and machine learning together, we found a realistic ceiling of 15%-25% use of thrombolysis across different hospitals and, in the seven hospitals studied, a realistic opportunity to double the number of patients with no significant disability that may be attributed to thrombolysis. CONCLUSIONS: National clinical audit may be enhanced by a combination of pathway simulation and machine learning, which best allows for an understanding of key levers for improvement in hyperacute stroke pathways, allowing for differences between local patient populations. These models, based on standard clinical audit data, may be applied at scale while providing results at individual hospital level. The models facilitate understanding of variation and levers for improvement in stroke pathways, and help set realistic targets tailored to local populations.

BACKGROUND: We have previously modelled that the optimal number of comprehensive stroke centres (CSC) providing endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in England would be 30 (net 6 new centres). We now estimate the relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of increasing the number of centres from 24 to 30. METHODS: We constructed a discrete event simulation (DES) to estimate the effectiveness and lifetime cost-effectiveness (from a payer perspective) using 1 year's incidence of stroke in England. 2000 iterations of the simulation were performed comparing baseline 24 centres to 30. RESULTS: of 80,800 patients admitted to hospital with acute stroke/year, 21,740 would be affected by the service reconfiguration. The median time to treatment for eligible early presenters (

BACKGROUND: Robopets are small animal-like robots which have the appearance and behavioural characteristics of pets. OBJECTIVE: to bring together the evidence of the experiences of staff, residents and family members of interacting with robopets and the effects of robopets on the health and well-being of older people living in care homes. DESIGN: Systematic review of qualitative and quantitative research. DATA SOURCES: We searched 13 electronic databases from inception to July 2018 and undertook forward and backward citation chasing. METHODS: Eligible studies reported the views and experiences of robopets from residents, family members and staff (qualitative studies using recognised methods of qualitative data collection and analysis) and the effects of robopets on the health and well-being of care home residents (randomised controlled trials, randomised crossover trials and cluster randomised trials). Study selection was undertaken independently by two reviewers. We used the Wallace criteria and the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool to assess the quality of the evidence. We developed a logic model with stakeholders and used this as a framework to guide data extraction and synthesis. Where appropriate, we used meta-analysis to combine effect estimates from quantitative studies. RESULTS: Nineteen studies (10 qualitative, 2 mixed methods and 7 randomised trials) met the inclusion criteria. Interactions with robopets were described as having a positive impact on aspects of well-being including loneliness, depression and quality of life by residents and staff, although there was no corresponding statistically significant evidence from meta-analysis for these outcomes. Meta-analysis showed evidence of a reduction in agitation with the robopet "Paro" compared to control (-0.32 [95% CI -0.61 to -0.04, p = 0.03]). Not everyone had a positive experience of robopets. CONCLUSIONS: Engagement with robopets appears to have beneficial effects on the health and well-being of older adults living in care homes, but not all chose to engage. Whether the benefits can be sustained are yet to be investigated. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Robopets have the potential to benefit people living in care homes, through increasing engagement and interaction. With the robopet acting as a catalyst, this engagement and interaction may afford comfort and help reduce agitation and loneliness.

Purpose: Both intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and intra-arterial endovascular thrombectomy (ET) improve the outcome of patients with acute ischaemic stroke, with endovascular thrombectomy being an option for those patients with large vessel occlusions. We sought to understand how organisation of services affects time to treatment for both intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular thrombectomy. Method: a multi-objective optimisation approach was used to explore the relationship between the number of intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular thrombectomy centres and times to treatment. The analysis is based on 238,887 emergency stroke admissions in England over 3 years (2013–2015). Results: Providing hyper-acute care only in comprehensive stroke centres (CSC, providing both intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular thrombectomy, and performing >150 endovascular thrombectomy per year, maximum 40 centres) in England would lead to 15% of patients being more than 45 min away from care, and would create centres with up to 4300 stroke admissions/year. Mixing hyper-acute stroke units (providing intravenous thrombolysis only) with comprehensive stroke centres speeds time to intravenous thrombolysis and mitigates admission numbers to comprehensive stroke centres, but at the expense of increasing time to endovascular thrombectomy. With 24 comprehensive stroke centres and all remaining current acute stroke units as hyper-acute stroke units, redirecting patients directly to attend a comprehensive stroke centre by accepting a small delay (15-min maximum) in intravenous thrombolysis reduces time to endovascular thrombectomy: 25% of all patients would be redirected from hyper-acute stroke units to a comprehensive stroke centre, with an average delay in intravenous thrombolysis of 8 min, and an average improvement in time to endovascular thrombectomy of 80 min. The balance of comprehensive stroke centre:hyper-acute stroke unit admissions would change from 24:76 to 49:51. Conclusion: Planning of hyper-acute stroke services is best achieved when considering all forms of acute care and ambulance protocol together. Times to treatment need to be considered alongside manageable and sustainable admission numbers.

BACKGROUND: the need to better understand implementing evidence-informed dementia care has been recognised in multiple priority-setting partnerships. The aim of this scoping review was to give an overview of the state of the evidence on implementation and dissemination of dementia care, and create a systematic evidence map. METHODS: We sought studies that addressed dissemination and implementation strategies or described barriers and facilitators to implementation across dementia stages and care settings. Twelve databases were searched from inception to October 2015 followed by forward citation and grey literature searches. Quantitative studies with a comparative research design and qualitative studies with recognised methods of data collection were included. Titles, abstracts and full texts were screened independently by two reviewers with discrepancies resolved by a third where necessary. Data extraction was performed by one reviewer and checked by a second. Strategies were mapped according to the ERIC compilation. RESULTS: Eighty-eight studies were included (30 quantitative, 34 qualitative and 24 mixed-methods studies). Approximately 60% of studies reported implementation strategies to improve practice: training and education of professionals (94%), promotion of stakeholder interrelationships (69%) and evaluative strategies (46%) were common; financial strategies were rare (15%). Nearly 70% of studies reported barriers or facilitators of care practices primarily within residential care settings. Organisational factors, including time constraints and increased workload, were recurrent barriers, whereas leadership and managerial support were often reported to promote implementation. Less is known about implementation activities in primary care and hospital settings, or the views and experiences of people with dementia and their family caregivers. CONCLUSION: This scoping review and mapping of the evidence reveals a paucity of robust evidence to inform the successful dissemination and implementation of evidence-based dementia care. Further exploration of the most appropriate methods to evaluate and report initiatives to bring about change and of the effectiveness of implementation strategies is necessary if we are to make changes in practice that improve dementia care.

BACKGROUND: Expert opinion is often sought to complement available information needed to inform model-based economic evaluations in health technology assessments. In this context, we define expert elicitation as the process of encoding expert opinion on a quantity of interest, together with associated uncertainty, as a probability distribution. When availability for face-to-face expert elicitation with a facilitator is limited, elicitation can be conducted remotely, overcoming challenges of finding an appropriate time to meet the expert and allowing access to experts situated too far away for practical face-to-face sessions. However, distance elicitation is associated with reduced response rates and limited assistance for the expert during the elicitation session. The aim of this study was to inform the development of a remote elicitation tool by exploring the influence of mode of elicitation on elicited beliefs. METHODS: an Excel-based tool (EXPLICIT) was developed to assist the elicitation session, including the preparation of the expert and recording of their responses. General practitioners (GPs) were invited to provide expert opinion about population alcohol consumption behaviours. They were randomised to complete the elicitation by either a face-to-face meeting or email. EXPLICIT was used in the elicitation sessions for both arms. RESULTS: Fifteen GPs completed the elicitation session. Those conducted by email were longer than the face-to-face sessions (13 min 30 s vs 10 min 26 s, p = 0.1) and the email-elicited estimates contained less uncertainty. However, the resulting aggregated distributions were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: EXPLICIT was useful in both facilitating the elicitation task and in obtaining expert opinion from experts via email. The findings support the opinion that remote, self-administered elicitation is a viable approach within the constraints of HTA to inform policy making, although poor response rates may be observed and additional time for individual sessions may be required.

OBJECTIVES: the policy of centralising hyperacute stroke units (HASUs) in England aims to provide stroke care in units that are both large enough to sustain expertise (>600 admissions/year) and dispersed enough to rapidly deliver time-critical treatments (

Introduction: Demonstration of cost-effectiveness is an established hurdle for new treatments and technologies. However, evidence synthesis, including simulation modelling, can be very difficult in the absence of good quality research that addresses pertinent questions, and people with rare conditions may have to forego the best available treatments. We illustrate this point with regard to the current choice between intravitreal ranibizumab, verteporfin photodynamic therapy (VPDT) or combinations of these (combination therapy) for polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy. Methods: We developed a Markov model to simulate equivalent cohorts of 65-year-old patients over a lifetime horizon. We obtained costs from the NHS national tariff, and utility values based on unilateral visual function deterioration. We carried out deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to investigate the sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in the model parameters. Results: Our model predicts that both VPDT and combination therapy offer cost savings but lower clinical efficacy over a lifetime horizon at δ81 165 and δ14 826 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) respectively. VPDT monotherapy has a 99% chance of cost-effectiveness at a willingness to pay of δ30 000 per QALY gained. Combination therapy has a low (29%) probability of cost-effectiveness, however, this is heavily dependent on the modelled incidence of haemorrhagic adverse events. Conclusion: Based on the results of our model, VPDT might be commissioned according to a strict decision rule interpretation. The outcome regarding combination therapy is uncertain. These conclusions are dependent on the available evidence. There is considerable modelling and parameter uncertainty, which needs to be urgently addressed.

In informing decisions, utilising health technology assessment (HTA), expert elicitation can provide valuable information, particularly where there is a less-developed evidence-base at the point of market access. In these circumstances, formal methods to elicit expert judgements are preferred to improve the accountability and transparency of the decision-making process, help reduce bias and the use of heuristics, and also provide a structure that allows uncertainty to be expressed. Expert elicitation is the process of transforming the subjective and implicit knowledge of experts into their quantifiable expressions. The use of expert elicitation in HTA is gaining momentum, and there is particular interest in its application to diagnostics, medical devices and complex interventions such as in public health or social care. Compared with the gathering of experimental evidence, elicitation constitutes a reasonably low-cost source of evidence. Given its inherent subject nature, the potential biases in elicited evidence cannot be ignored and, due to its infancy in HTA, there is little guidance to the analyst wishing to conduct a formal elicitation exercise. This article attempts to summarise the stages of designing and conducting an expert elicitation, drawing on key literature and examples, most of which are not in HTA. In addition, we critique their applicability to HTA, given its distinguishing features. There are a number of issues that the analyst should be mindful of, in particular the need to appropriately characterise the uncertainty associated with model inputs and the fact that there are often numerous parameters required, not all of which can be defined using the same quantities. This increases the need for the elicitation task to be as straightforward as possible for the expert to complete.

This systematic review and synthesis of qualitative research explored contextual factors relevant to non-pharmacological interventions for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) in schools. We conducted meta-ethnography to synthesise 34 studies, using theories of stigma to further develop the synthesis. Studies suggested that the classroom context requiring pupils to sit still, be quiet and concentrate could trigger symptoms of ADHD, and that symptoms could then be exacerbated through informal/formal labelling and stigma, damaged self-perceptions and resulting poor relationships with staff and pupils. Influences of the school context on symptoms of ADHD were often invisible to teachers and pupils, with most attributions made to the individual pupil and/or the pupil's family. We theorise that this ‘invisibility’ is at least partly an artefact of stigma, and that the potential for stigma for ADHD to seem ‘natural and right’ in the context of schools needs to be taken into account when planning any intervention.

BACKGROUND: When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. METHODS: Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. RESULTS: Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30,000 per QALY threshold decreased by 74-86 % from the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Experts indicated that the histogram method was easier to use, but attributed a perception of more accuracy to the hybrid method. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of expert elicitation can decrease decision uncertainty. Here, choice of method did not affect the overall cost-effectiveness conclusions, but researchers intending to use expert elicitation need to be aware of the impact different methods could have.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical capacity planning methods that can take account of variations in patient complexity, admission rates and delayed discharges have long been available, but their implementation in complex pathways such as stroke care remains limited. Instead simple average based estimates are commonplace. These methods often substantially underestimate capacity requirements. We analyse the capacity requirements for acute and community stroke services in a pathway with over 630 admissions per year. We sought to identify current capacity bottlenecks affecting patient flow, future capacity requirements in the presence of increased admissions, the impact of co-location and pooling of the acute and rehabilitation units and the impact of patient subgroups on capacity requirements. We contrast these results to the often used method of planning by average occupancy, often with arbitrary uplifts to cater for variability. METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model using aggregate parameter values derived from routine administrative data on over 2000 anonymised admission and discharge timestamps. The model mimicked the flow of stroke, high risk TIA and complex neurological patients from admission to an acute ward through to community rehab and early supported discharge, and predicted the probability of admission delays. RESULTS: an increase from 10 to 14 acute beds reduces the number of patients experiencing a delay to the acute stroke unit from 1 in every 7 to 1 in 50. Co-location of the acute and rehabilitation units and pooling eight beds out of a total bed stock of 26 reduce the number of delayed acute admissions to 1 in every 29 and the number of delayed rehabilitation admissions to 1 in every 20. Planning by average occupancy would resulted in delays for one in every five patients in the acute stroke unit. CONCLUSIONS: Planning by average occupancy fails to provide appropriate reserve capacity to manage the variations seen in stroke pathways to desired service levels. An appropriate uplift from the average cannot be based simply on occupancy figures. Our method draws on long available, intuitive, but underused mathematical techniques for capacity planning. Implementation via simulation at our study hospital provided valuable decision support for planners to assess future bed numbers and organisation of the acute and rehabilitation services.

Objectives: the study sought to identify key design features that could be used to create a new framework for group-based health interventions. We designed and tested the first session of a group intervention for stroke survivors with aphasia which was aimed at nurturing new psychological connections between group members.
Setting: the intervention session, a participant focus group and interviews with intervention facilitators were held in a local community music centre in the South West of England.
Participants: a convenience sample of ten community-dwelling people with post-stroke aphasia participated in the session. Severity of aphasia was not considered for inclusion.
Intervention: Participants took part in a 90-minute group singing session which involved singing songs from a specially-prepared song book. Musical accompaniment was provided by the facilitators.
Primary and secondary outcome measures: Participants and group facilitators reported their experiences of participating in the session, with a focus on activities within the session related to the intervention aims. Researcher observations of the session were also made.
Results: Two themes emerged from the analysis, concerning experiences of the session (“developing a sense of group belonging”) and perceptions of its design and delivery (“creating the conditions for engagement”). Participants described an emerging sense of shared social identity as a member of the intervention group and identified fixed (e.g. group size, session breaks) and flexible (e.g. facilitator responsiveness) features of the session which contributed to this emergence. Facilitator interviews and researcher observations corroborated and expanded participant reports.
Conclusions: Engagement with health intervention content may be enhanced in group settings when intervention participants begin to establish positive and meaningful psychological connections with other group members. Understanding and actively nurturing these connections should be a core feature of a general framework for the design and delivery of group interventions.

BACKGROUND: the benefits of end-user involvement in health-care research are widely recognized by research agencies. There are few published evaluations of end-user involvement in systematic reviews. OBJECTIVES: (i) Describe end-user involvement in a complex mixed-methods systematic review of ADHD in schools, (ii) reflect on the impact of end-user involvement, (iii) highlight challenges and benefits experienced and (iv) provide suggestions to inform future involvement. METHODS: End-users were involved in all stages of the project, both as authors and as members of an advisory group. In addition, several events were held with groups of relevant end-users during the project. RESULTS: End-user input (i) guided the direction of the research, (ii) contributed to a typology of interventions and outcomes, (iii) contributed to the direction of data analysis and (iv) contributed to the robustness of the syntheses by demonstrating the alignment of interim findings with lived experiences. Challenges included (i) managing expectations, (ii) managing the intensity of emotion, (iii) ensuring that involvement was fruitful for all not just the researcher, (iv) our capacity to communicate and manage the process and (v) engendering a sense of involvement amongst end-users. CONCLUSIONS: End-user involvement was an important aspect of this project. To minimize challenges in future projects, a recognition by the project management team and the funding provider that end-user involvement even in evidence synthesis projects is resource intensive is essential to allow appropriate allocation of time and resources for meaningful engagement.

© 2016 SEBDA School-based non-pharmacological interventions are an important part of the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We aimed to systematically review qualitative literature relating to the experience of and attitudes towards school-based non-pharmacological interventions for ADHD. Systematic searches of 20 electronic databases were undertaken. Reviewers screened titles, abstracts and full reports of studies, before extracting data and critically appraising 33 included papers. Studies were synthesised using meta-ethnographic methods. Four-key interrelated themes were identified: (1) individualising interventions, (2) structure of interventions, (3) barriers to effectiveness, (4) perceived moderators and impact of interventions. The perceived effectiveness of interventions used in school settings is reported to vary. Therefore, flexible, tailored interventions ought to hold potential. However, highly individualised interventions may negatively affect children with ADHD. Findings point to the need for school-based interventions to take into account the wider school context, as well as core symptoms of ADHD.

Educational policy and the school effectiveness movement often involve rhetoric about the benefit of parent involvement in schools, but high quality relationships between parents and teachers are not always straightforwardly achieved, and this may be particularly true for parents of children presenting with academic problems and/or Social, Emotional and Behavioural Difficulties (SEBD). A systematic review of qualitative research was conducted to explore the school-related experiences of parents of pupils diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Six studies reported in seven papers met the inclusion criteria. High quality parent—teacher relationships were found to be the exception, with mothers feeling silenced and criticised. Findings show commonalities with wider research about parents, but identify additional grounds for conflict resulting from parental blame for a pupils’ disruptive behaviour, and the ambivalent nature of the concept of ADHD.

INTRODUCTION: Biologic therapies are efficacious but costly. A number of health economic models have been developed to determine the most cost-effective way of using them in the treatment pathway. These models have produced conflicting results, driven by differences in assumptions, model structure, and data, which undermine the credibility of funding decisions based on modeling studies. A Consensus Working Party met to discuss recommendations and approaches for future models of biologic therapies. METHODS: Our working party consisted of clinical specialists, modelers, and policy makers. Two 1-day meetings were held for members to arrive at consensus positions on model structure, assumptions, and appropriate data sources. These views were guided by clinical aspects of rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis and the principles of evidence-based medicine. Where opinions differed, we sought to identify a research agenda that would generate the evidence needed to reach consensus. RESULTS: We gained consensus in four areas of model development: initial response to treatment; long-term disease progression; lifetime costs and benefits; and model structure. Consensus was also achieved on some key parameters such as choices of outcome measures, methods for extrapolation beyond trial data, and treatment switching. A research agenda to support further consensus was also identified. CONCLUSION: Consensus guidance that fully reflects current evidence and clinical understanding was gained successfully. In addition, research needs have been identified. Such guidance can be updated as evidence develops and policy questions change and need not be prescriptive as long as deviations from consensus are clearly explained and justified. FUNDING: Arthritis Research UK and the UK Medical Research Council Network of Hubs for Trials Methodology Research.

BACKGROUND: Keratoconus is a progressive degenerative corneal disorder of children and young adults that is traditionally managed by refractive error correction, with corneal transplantation reserved for the most severe cases. UVA collagen crosslinking is a novel procedure that aims to prevent disease progression, currently being considered for use in the UK NHS. We assess whether it might be a cost-effective alternative to standard management for patients with progressive keratoconus. METHODS: We constructed a Markov model in which we estimated disease progression from prospective follow-up studies, derived costs derived from the NHS National Tariff, and calculated utilities from linear regression models of visual acuity in the better-seeing eye. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of possible variations in the model parameters. RESULTS: Collagen crosslinking is cost effective compared with standard management at an incremental cost of £ 3174 per QALY in the base case. Deterministic sensitivity analysis shows that this could rise above £ 33,263 per QALY if the duration of treatment efficacy is limited to 5 years. Other model parameters are not decision significant. Collagen crosslinking is cost effective in 85% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £ 30,000 per QALY. CONCLUSION: UVA collagen crosslinking is very likely to be cost effective, compared with standard management, for the treatment of progressive keratoconus. However, further research to explore its efficacy beyond 5 years is desirable.

AIM/BACKGROUND: to describe the two-stage prioritization process being used by the UK National Institute for Health Research's Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care for the South-West Peninsula (or PenCLAHRC) - a joint health service and university partnership and reflect on implications for the wider context of priority setting in health-care research. METHOD: PenCLAHRC's process establishes the priorities of Stakeholders including service users across a regional health system for locally relevant health services research and implementation. Health research questions are collected from clinicians, academics and service users in Devon and Cornwall (UK) using a web-based question formulation tool. There is a two-stage prioritization process which uses explicit criteria and a wide Stakeholder group, including service users to identify important research questions relevant to the south-west peninsula locality. RESULTS: to date, a wide variety of health research topics have been prioritized by the PenCLAHRC Stakeholders. The research agenda reflects the interests of academics, clinicians and service users in the local area. Potential challenges to implementation of the process include time constraints, variable quality of questions (including the language of research) and initiating and maintaining engagement in the process. Shared prioritization of local health research needs can be achieved between Stakeholders from a wide range of perspectives. CONCLUSIONS: the processes developed have been successful and, with minor changes, will continue to be used during subsequent rounds of prioritization. Engagement of Stakeholders in establishing a research agenda encourages the most relevant health questions to be asked and may improve implementation of research findings and take up by service users.

Very few discrete-event simulation studies follow up on recommendations with evaluation of whether modelled benefits have been realised and the extent to which modelling contributed to any change. This paper evaluates changes made to the emergency stroke care pathway at a UK hospital informed by a simulation modelling study. The aims of the study were to increase the proportion of people with strokes that undergo a time-sensitive treatment to breakdown a blood clot within the brain and decrease the time to treatment. Evaluation involved analysis of stroke treatment pre- and post-implementation, as well as a comparison of how the research team believed the intervention would aid implementation compared to what actually happened. Two years after the care pathway was changed, treatment rates had increased in line with expectations and the hospital was treating four times as many patients than before the intervention in half the time. There is evidence that the modelling process aided implementation, but not always in line with expectations of the research team. Despite user involvement throughout the study it proved difficult to involve a representative group of clinical stakeholders in conceptual modelling and this affected model credibility. The research team also found batch experimentation more useful than visual interactive simulation to structure debate and decision making. In particular, simple charts of results focused debates on the clinical effectiveness of drugs - an emergent barrier to change. Visual interactive simulation proved more useful for engaging different hospitals and initiating new projects.

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to describe mental health-related contact with educational professionals amongst children in the British Child and Adolescent Mental Health Survey (BCAMHS) 2004. Design/methodology/approach – BCAMHS 2004 was a community-based survey of 5,325 children aged 5-16, with follow-up in 2007. This paper reports the percentage of children with a psychiatric disorder that had mental health-related contact with education professionals (categorised as teachers or specialist education services) and the percentage with specific types of psychiatric disorders amongst those contacting services. Findings – Two-thirds (66.1 per cent, 95 per cent CI: 62.4-69.8 per cent) of children with a psychiatric disorder had contact with a teacher regarding their mental health and 31.1 per cent (95 per cent CI: 27.5-34.7 per cent) had contact with special education either in 2004 or 2007, or both. Over half of children reporting special education contact (55.1 per cent, 95 per cent CI: 50.0-60.2 per cent) and almost a third reporting teacher contact in relation to mental health (32.1 per cent, 95 per cent CI: 29.7-34.6 per cent) met criteria for a psychiatric disorder. Practical implications – Many children in contact with education professionals regarding mental health experienced clinical levels of difficulty. Training is needed to ensure that contact leads to prompt intervention and referral if necessary. Originality/value – This is the first paper to report on mental health-related service contact with education professionals in the 2004 BCAMHS survey along with its 2007 follow-up. It identifies high levels of teacher contact which represent challenges in supporting staff with training, resources and access to mental health services.

OBJECTIVES: to quantify and compare the treatment effects on three surrogate end points, progression-free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), and tumor response rate (TR) vs. overall survival (OS) based on a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of drug interventions in advanced colorectal cancer (aCRC). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched for RCTs of pharmacologic therapies in aCRC between 2003 and 2013. Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded based on a predefined form. Univariate and multivariate random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate pooled summary treatment effects. The ratio of hazard ratios (HRs)/odds ratios (ORs) and difference in medians were used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects on the surrogate end points and OS. Spearman ρ, surrogate threshold effect (STE), and R(2) were also estimated across predefined trial-level covariates. RESULTS: We included 101 RCTs. In univariate and multivariate meta-analyses, we found larger treatment effects for the surrogates than for OS. Compared with OS, treatment effects were on average 13% higher when HRs were measured and 3% to 45% higher when ORs were considered; differences in median PFS/TTP were higher than on OS by an average of 0.5 month. Spearman ρ ranged from 0.39 to 0.80, mean R(2) from 0.06 to 0.65, and STE was 0.8 for HRPFS, 0.64 for HRTTP, or 0.28 for ORTR. The stratified analyses revealed high variability across all strata. CONCLUSION: None of the end points in this study were found to achieve the level of evidence (ie, mean R(2)trial > 0.60) that has been set to select high or excellent correlation levels by common surrogate evaluation tools. Previous surrogacy relationships observed between PFS and TTP vs. OS in selected settings may not apply across other classes or lines of therapy.

Objective: This overarching synthesis brings together the findings of four systematic reviews including 138 studies focused on non-pharmacological interventions for ADHD used in school settings. These reviews considered the effectiveness of school-based interventions for ADHD, attitudes towards and experience of school-based interventions for ADHD, and the experience of ADHD in school settings. Method: We developed novel methods to compare the findings across these reviews inductively and deductively. Results: Key contextual issues that may influence the effectiveness and implementation of interventions include the relationships that pupils with ADHD have with their teachers and peers, the attributions individuals make about the etiology of ADHD, and stigma related to ADHD or intervention attendance. Conclusion: Although we found some positive effects for some outcomes and intervention categories, heterogeneity in effect size estimates and research evidence suggests a range of diverse contextual factors potentially moderate the implementation and effectiveness of school based interventions for ADHD.

Embodied health movements work on the boundary between lay and expert knowledge. Consumer groups, depending on their goals, may increase or decrease pharmaceuticalization. This paper reports a small case study about the retrospective evaluation of a specific second line treatment for type 2 diabetes by an existing patient involvement group. The group is part of a research collaboration between academia and the health service in England, and shares some characteristics of embodied health movements. We used the case study to explore whether an institutionally funded non activist patient group can make a more balanced contribution to drug licensing decisions than that made by either access-oriented or injury-oriented consumer groups, without being co-opted by an institutional agenda. The questions we wished to address were how this group evaluated existing mechanisms for licensing drugs; how they balanced scientific and lay knowledge; how they made their decisions; and how they viewed their experiences as panel members. The five panel members were interviewed before and after the panel discussion in July 2013. They were critical of current licensing processes, and used their own embodied experiences of medicines to evaluate expert knowledge. Their decisions on the panel were informed either by a balancing of benefits and harms, or by trust in experts. The case study suggests that such a group may have the potential both to balance the pro-pharmaceuticalization impact of access-oriented groups and to influence forms of pharmaceutical governance.

© 2014 SEBDA. Childhood psychiatric disorders are associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes including poor academic attainment. For some children these difficulties are recognised through school Special Educational Need procedures (SEN) but many others may remain unidentified and/or unsupported. In Britain, government data suggests disproportionate representation of children with a SEN among children permanently excluded from school. This review asks whether school-aged children with impairing psychopathology were more likely to be excluded from school than those without. Databases covering education, social sciences, psychology and medicine were searched, experts were contacted and bibliographies of key papers were hand-searched. Studies were included if the population covered school-aged children, and if validated diagnostic measures had been used to assess psychopathology. Children with impairing psychopathology had greater odds of exclusion compared to the rest of the school-age population: odds ratios range from 1.13 (95% CI: 0.55–2.33) to 45.6 (95% CI: 3.8–21.3). These findings however need to be considered in light of the paucity of the literature and methodological weaknesses discussed.

A Markov model was developed to predict the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab compared to macular laser therapy for diabetes patients with clinically significant macular oedema (CSMO). This study used outcome data from a randomised controlled trial, utility data and health states from a ranibizumab health technology assessment, and costs from the UK national tariff. A total of 37.73% of patients treated with bevacizumab in the model had a visual acuity of at least 76 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study Research Group (ETDRS) letters after four years, compared with 4.09% of laser therapy patients. Only 0.11% of bevacizumab patients were blind after four years compared with 6.45% of laser therapy patients. However, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £51,182, we predict that bevacizumab would not be cost-effective compared to laser therapy because of the influence of the NHS national tariff costs for monitoring patients and administering bevacizumab, and the inability of the EQ-5D measure to capture the impact of sensory deprivation on quality of life sufficiently. This study recommends significant caution when interpreting the results of cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions that involve vision-related interventions.

OBJECTIVE: Elderly residents with dementia commonly exhibit increased agitation at mealtimes. This interferes with eating and can be distressing for both the individual and fellow residents. This review examines the effectiveness of mealtime interventions aimed at improving behavioral symptoms in elderly people living with dementia in residential care. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Medline, PsycINFO, Embase, HMIC, AMED (OvidSP); CDSR, CENTRAL, DARE (Cochrane Library, Wiley); CINAHL (EBSCOhost); British Nursing Index (NHS Evidence); ASSIA (ProQuest); Social Science Citation Index (Web of Knowledge); EThOS (British Library); Social Care Online and OpenGrey from inception to November 2012. Forward and backward citation chases, hand searches of other review articles identified in the search, and key journals. TYPES OF STUDY: all comparative studies were included. Articles were screened for inclusion independently by 2 reviewers. Data extraction and quality appraisal were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second with discrepancies resolved by discussion with a third if necessary. Data were not suitable for meta-analysis so narrative synthesis was carried out. RESULTS: a total of 6118 articles were identified in the original search. Eleven articles were finally included. Mealtime interventions were categorized into 4 types: music, changes to food service, dining environment alteration, and group conversation. Study quality was poor, making it difficult to reach firm conclusions. Although all studies showed a trend in favor of the intervention, only 6 reported a statistically significant improvement in behavioral symptoms. Four studies suggest cumulative or lingering effects of music on agitated and aggressive behaviors. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence to suggest that mealtime interventions improve behavioral symptoms in elderly people with dementia living in residential care, although weak study designs limit the generalizability of the findings. Well designed, controlled trials are needed to further understand the utility of mealtime interventions in this setting.

Objective: to determine the effectiveness of mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) and mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) on psychological and physical outcomes for people with vascular disease. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Data sources: AMED, CINAHL, EMBASE, British Nursing Index, Medline, Web of Science, PsycINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Central, Social Sciences Citation Index, Social Policy and Practice, and HMIC from inception to January 2013. Review methods: Articles were screened for inclusion independently by two reviewers. Data extraction and quality appraisal were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second with discrepancies resolved by discussion with a third if necessary. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed. Results: Nine articles (from eight original randomised controlled trials) met eligibility criteria and were included in the final review. In total, 578 participants were enrolled across the trials, with participants presenting with prehypertension/hypertension (n. = 3 trials), type 1 or 2 diabetes (n. = 2), heart disease (n. = 2) and stroke (n. = 1). Meta-analyses, using standardised mean differences, showed evidence of reductions in stress (- 0.36; 95% CI - 0.67 to - 0.09; p. = 0.01), depression (- 0.35; 95% CI - 0.53 to - 0.16; p. = 0.003) and anxiety (- 0.50; 95% CI - 0.70 to - 0.29; p. < 0.001). Effects on physical outcomes (blood pressure, albuminuria, stress hormones) were mixed. Conclusion: Whilst populations with vascular disease appear to derive a range of psychological benefits from MBSR/MBCT intervention, the effects on physical parameters of disease are not yet established. More robust studies, with longer term follow-up, are required to ascertain full effectiveness of such intervention. © 2014.

Very few discrete-event simulation studies follow up on recommendations with evaluation of whether modelled benefits have been realised and the extent to which modelling contributed to any change. This paper evaluates changes made to the emergency stroke care pathway at a UK hospital informed by a simulation modelling study. The aims of the study were to increase the proportion of people with strokes that undergo a time-sensitive treatment to breakdown a blood clot within the brain and decrease the time to treatment. Evaluation involved analysis of stroke treatment pre- and post-implementation, as well as a comparison of how the research team believed the intervention would aid implementation compared to what actually happened. Two years after the care pathway was changed, treatment rates had increased in line with expectations and the hospital was treating four times as many patients than before the intervention in half the time. There is evidence that the modelling process aided implementation, but not always in line with expectations of the research team. Despite user involvement throughout the study it proved difficult to involve a representative group of clinical stakeholders in conceptual modelling and this affected model credibility. The research team also found batch experimentation more useful than visual interactive simulation to structure debate and decision making. In particular, simple charts of results focused debates on the clinical effectiveness of drugs - an emergent barrier to change. Visual interactive simulation proved more useful for engaging different hospitals and initiating new projects.

BACKGROUND: Antipsychotic medications are commonly used to manage the behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia. Several large studies have demonstrated an association between treatment with antipsychotics and increased morbidity and mortality in people with dementia. AIMS: to assess the effectiveness of interventions used to reduce inappropriate prescribing of antipsychotics to the elderly with dementia in residential care. METHOD: Systematic searches were conducted in 12 electronic databases. Reference lists of all included studies and forward citation searching using Web of Science were also conducted. All quantitative studies with a comparative research design and studies in which recognized methods of qualitative data collection were used were included. Articles were screened for inclusion independently by 2 reviewers. Data extraction and quality appraisal were performed by 1 reviewer and checked by a second with discrepancies resolved by discussion with a third if necessary. RESULTS: Twenty-two quantitative studies (reported in 23 articles) were included evaluating the effectiveness of educational programs (n = 11), in-reach services (n = 2), medication review (n = 4), and multicomponent interventions (n = 5). No qualitative studies meeting our inclusion criteria were identified. Eleven studies were randomized or controlled in design; the remainder were uncontrolled before and after studies. Beneficial effects were seen in 9 of the 11 studies with the most robust study design with reductions in antipsychotic prescribing levels of between 12% and 20%. Little empirical information was provided on the sustainability of interventions. CONCLUSION: Interventions to reduce inappropriate prescribing of antipsychotic medications to people with dementia resident in care homes may be effective in the short term, but longer more robust studies are needed. For prescribing levels to be reduced in the long term, the culture and nature of care settings and the availability and feasibility of nondrug alternatives needs to be addressed.

BACKGROUND: Limited attention has been paid in the literature to multiple component fall prevention interventions that comprise two or more fixed combinations of fall prevention interventions that are not individually tailored following a risk assessment. The study objective was to determine the effect of multiple component interventions on fall rates, number of fallers and fall-related injuries among older people and to establish effect sizes of particular intervention combinations. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsychInfo, Cochrane, AMED, UK Clinical Research Network Study Portfolio, Current Controlled Trials register and Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials register were systematically searched to August 2013 for randomised controlled trials targeting those aged 60 years and older with any medical condition or in any setting that compared multiple component interventions with no intervention, placebo or usual clinical care on the outcomes reported falls, number that fall or fall-related injuries. Included studies were appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Estimates of fall rate ratio and risk ratio were pooled across studies using random effects meta-analysis. Data synthesis took place in 2013. RESULTS: Eighteen papers reporting 17 trials were included (5034 participants). There was a reduction in the number of people that fell (pooled risk ratio = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.80 to 0.91) and the fall rate (pooled rate ratio = 0.80, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.89) in favour of multiple component interventions when compared with controls. There was a small amount of statistical heterogeneity (I(2) =20%) across studies for fall rate and no heterogeneity across studies examining number of people that fell. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials found evidence that multiple component interventions that are not tailored to individually assessed risk factors are effective at reducing both the number of people that fall and the fall rate. This approach should be considered as a service delivery option.

Childhood psychiatric disorders are associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes including poor academic attainment. For some children these difficulties are recognised through school Special Educational Need procedures (SEN) but many others may remain unidentified and/or unsupported. In Britain, government data suggests disproportionate representation of children with a SEN among children permanently excluded from school. This review asks whether school-aged children with impairing psychopathology were more likely to be excluded from school than those without. Databases covering education, social sciences, psychology and medicine were searched, experts were contacted and bibliographies of key papers were hand-searched. Studies were included if the population covered school-aged children, and if validated diagnostic measures had been used to assess psychopathology. Children with impairing psychopathology had greater odds of exclusion compared to the rest of the school-age population: odds ratios range from 1.13 (95% CI: 0.55-2.33) to 45.6 (95% CI: 3.8-21.3). These findings however need to be considered in light of the paucity of the literature and methodological weaknesses discussed. © 2014 © 2014 SEBDA.

OBJECTIVES: Licensing of, and coverage decisions on, new therapies should rely on evidence from patient-relevant endpoints such as overall survival (OS). Nevertheless, evidence from surrogate endpoints may also be useful, as it may not only expedite the regulatory approval of new therapies but also inform coverage decisions. It is, therefore, essential that candidate surrogate endpoints be properly validated. However, there is no consensus on statistical methods for such validation and on how the evidence thus derived should be applied by policy makers. METHODS: We review current statistical approaches to surrogate-endpoint validation based on meta-analysis in various advanced-tumor settings. We assessed the suitability of two surrogates (progression-free survival [PFS] and time-to-progression [TTP]) using three current validation frameworks: Elston and Taylor's framework, the German Institute of Quality and Efficiency in Health Care's (IQWiG) framework and the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3). RESULTS: a wide variety of statistical methods have been used to assess surrogacy. The strength of the association between the two surrogates and OS was generally low. The level of evidence (observation-level versus treatment-level) available varied considerably by cancer type, by evaluation tools and was not always consistent even within one specific cancer type. CONCLUSIONS: Not in all solid tumors the treatment-level association between PFS or TTP and OS has been investigated. According to IQWiG's framework, only PFS achieved acceptable evidence of surrogacy in metastatic colorectal and ovarian cancer treated with cytotoxic agents. Our study emphasizes the challenges of surrogate-endpoint validation and the importance of building consensus on the development of evaluation frameworks.

OBJECTIVE: to examine the impact of gardens and outdoor spaces on the mental and physical well-being of people with dementia who are resident in care homes and understand the views of people with dementia, their carers, and care home staff on the value of gardens and outdoor spaces. DESIGN: Systematic review. METHODS: Fourteen databases were searched from inception to February 2013. Forward and backward citation chasing of included articles was conducted; 38 relevant organizations were contacted to identify unpublished reports. Titles, abstracts, and full texts were screened independently by 2 reviewers in a 2-stage process and were discussed with a third reviewer where necessary. Results were synthesized narratively. RESULTS: Seventeen studies were included: 9 quantitative, 7 qualitative, and 1 mixed methods. The quantitative studies were of poor quality but suggested decreased levels of agitation were associated with garden use. The views and experiences of the garden are discussed in relation to themes of how the garden was used, nature of interactions, impact/effect of the gardens, mechanisms/how the garden was thought to have an effect, and negatives (such as perception of the garden as a hazard and the limited staff time). CONCLUSION: There are promising impacts on levels of agitation in care home residents with dementia who spend time in a garden. Future research would benefit from a focus on key outcomes measured in comparable ways with a separate focus on what lies behind limited accessibility to gardens within the residential care setting.

OBJECTIVE: to quantify and compare the treatment effect and risk of bias of trials reporting biomarkers or intermediate outcomes (surrogate outcomes) versus trials using final patient relevant primary outcomes. DESIGN: Meta-epidemiological study. DATA SOURCES: all randomised clinical trials published in 2005 and 2006 in six high impact medical journals: Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, and PLoS Medicine. STUDY SELECTION: Two independent reviewers selected trials. DATA EXTRACTION: Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded according to a predefined form. Two reviewers independently checked data extraction. The ratio of odds ratios was used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects between the trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes, also adjusted for trial characteristics. A ratio of odds ratios >1.0 implies that trials with surrogate outcomes report larger intervention effects than trials with patient relevant outcomes. RESULTS: 84 trials using surrogate outcomes and 101 using patient relevant outcomes were considered for analyses. Study characteristics of trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes were well balanced, except for median sample size (371 v 741) and single centre status (23% v 9%). Their risk of bias did not differ. Primary analysis showed trials reporting surrogate endpoints to have larger treatment effects (odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.60) than trials reporting patient relevant outcomes (0.76, 0.70 to 0.82), with an unadjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.47 (1.07 to 2.01) and adjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.46 (1.05 to 2.04). This result was consistent across sensitivity and secondary analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Trials reporting surrogate primary outcomes are more likely to report larger treatment effects than trials reporting final patient relevant primary outcomes. This finding was not explained by differences in the risk of bias or characteristics of the two groups of trials.

The need to improve the nutrition of the elderly living in long term care has long been recognised, but how this can best be achieved, and whether (and which) intervention is successful in reducing morbidity is less well understood. The aim of this systematic review was to determine the effectiveness of mealtime interventions for the elderly living in residential care. Mealtime interventions were considered as those that aimed to change/improve the mealtime routine, practice, experience or environment. Following comprehensive searches, review and appraisal, 37 articles were included. Inadequate reporting in over half of the articles limited data quality appraisal. Mealtime interventions were categorised into five types: changes to food service, food improvement, dining environment alteration, staff training and feeding assistance. Meta-analysis found inconsistent evidence of effects on body weight of changes to food service (0.5 kg; 95% CI: -1.1 to 2.2; p=0.51), food improvement interventions (0.4 kg; 95% CI: -0.8 to 1.7; p=0.50) or alterations to dining environment (1.5 kg; 95% CI: -0.7 to 2.8; p=0.23). Findings from observational studies within these intervention types were mixed, but generally positive. Observational studies also found positive effects on food/caloric intake across all intervention types, though meta-analyses of randomised studies showed little evidence of any effects on food/caloric intake in food improvement studies (-5 kcal; 95% CI: -36 to 26; p=0.74). There was some evidence of an effect on daily energy intakes within dining environment studies (181 kcal/day, 95% CI: -5 to 367, p=0.06). The need to improve the nutrition of the elderly living in residential long term care is well recognised. This review found some evidence that simple intervention around various aspects of mealtime practices and the mealtime environment can result in favourable nutritional outcomes. Further large scale pragmatic trials, however, are still required to establish full efficacy of such interventions.

Interest is growing internationally in the potential benefits of patient and public involvement (PPI) in research. In the United Kingdom (UK) health and social care services are now committed to involving patients and service users in the planning, development and evaluation of their services. Many funders require PPI as a prerequisite for funding. What does healthcare operational research miss by not involving patients and the public in the development, refinement and implementation of models? We believe PPI is important for healthcare OR for model design and validation, and ethical and economic reasons. It also has a distinct contribution that goes beyond the incorporation of behavioural parameters into models. Case studies in neonatal care and a fractured neck of femur pathway highlight PPI’s contribution to model design and validation, but a recent conference session also identified a number of obstacles. We suggest a provisional model for the implementation of PPI in healthcare OR that emphasises a facilitative approach. We acknowledge this is a significant challenge, but argue that it must be met for ethical and economic reasons that are ultimately rooted in modellers’ construction of valid models. Crucially, it has the potential to enhance our ability to bring about change which can benefit health services and, most importantly, the patients they serve.

BACKGROUND: Elicitation is a technique that can be used to obtain probability distribution from experts about unknown quantities. We conducted a methodology review of reports where probability distributions had been elicited from experts to be used in model-based health technology assessments. METHODS: Databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the CRD database were searched from inception to April 2013. Reference lists were checked and citation mapping was also used. Studies describing their approach to the elicitation of probability distributions were included. Data was abstracted on pre-defined aspects of the elicitation technique. Reports were critically appraised on their consideration of the validity, reliability and feasibility of the elicitation exercise. RESULTS: Fourteen articles were included. Across these studies, the most marked features were heterogeneity in elicitation approach and failure to report key aspects of the elicitation method. The most frequently used approaches to elicitation were the histogram technique and the bisection method. Only three papers explicitly considered the validity, reliability and feasibility of the elicitation exercises. CONCLUSION: Judged by the studies identified in the review, reports of expert elicitation are insufficient in detail and this impacts on the perceived usability of expert-elicited probability distributions. In this context, the wider credibility of elicitation will only be improved by better reporting and greater standardisation of approach. Until then, the advantage of eliciting probability distributions from experts may be lost.

BACKGROUND: the cost to the NHS of missed or inappropriate hospital appointments is considerable. Alternative methods of appointment scheduling might be more flexible to patients' needs without jeopardising health and service quality. The objective was to systematically review evidence of patient initiated clinics in secondary care on patient reported outcomes among patients with chronic/recurrent conditions. METHODS: Seven databases were searched from inception to June 2013. Hand searching of included studies references was also conducted. Studies comparing the effects of patient initiated clinics with traditional consultant led clinics in secondary care for patients with long term chronic or recurrent diseases on health related quality of life and/or patient satisfaction were included. Data was extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Results were synthesised narratively. RESULTS: Seven studies were included in the review, these covered a total of 1,655 participants across three conditions: breast cancer, inflammatory bowel disease and rheumatoid arthritis. Quality of reporting was variable. Results showed no significant differences between the intervention and control groups for psychological and health related quality of life outcomes indicating no evidence of harm. Some patients reported significantly more satisfaction using patient-initiated clinics than usual care (p

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: to assess the effects of patient-initiated appointment systems compared with usual care in people with chronic or recurrent conditions managed in the secondary care setting. In particular, we are interested in whether these appointment systems can effectively manage disease without causing harm to patients and whether costs related to the provision of the service can be reduced compared with usual care.

BACKGROUND: Routine follow-up following uncomplicated surgery is being delivered by telephone in some settings. Telephone consultations may be preferable to patients and improve outpatient resource use. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of telephone consultations with face to face follow-up consultations, in patients discharged from hospital following surgery. METHODS: Seven electronic databases (including Medline, Embase and PsycINFO) were searched from inception to July 2011. Comparative studies of any design in which routine follow-up via telephone was compared with face to face consultation in patients discharged from hospital after surgery were included. Study selection, data extraction and quality appraisal were performed independently by two reviewers with consensus reached by discussion and involvement of a third reviewer where necessary. RESULTS: Five papers (four studies; 865 adults) met the inclusion criteria. The studies were of low methodological quality and reported dissimilar outcomes precluding any formal synthesis. CONCLUSIONS: There has been very little comparative evaluation of different methods of routine follow-up care in patients discharged from hospital following surgery. Further work is needed to establish a role for telephone consultation in this patient group.

BACKGROUND: Missed or inappropriate hospital appointments cost the UK National Health Service millions of pounds each year and delay treatment for other patients. Innovative methods of appointment scheduling that are more flexible to patient needs, may improve service quality and preserve resources. METHODS: a systematic review of the evidence for the clinical effectiveness of patient initiated clinics in managing long term care for people with chronic or recurrent conditions in secondary care. Seven databases were searched including MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO (using the OVID interface), the Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews and CENTRAL, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index (via the Web of Science interface) from inception to June 2013. Studies comparing patient initiated clinics with traditional consultant-led clinics in secondary care for people with long term chronic or recurrent diseases were included. Included studies had to provide data on clinical or resource use outcomes. Data were extracted and checked by two reviewers using a piloted, standardised data extraction form. RESULTS: Eight studies (n = 1927 individuals) were included. All were conducted in the UK. There were few significant differences in clinical outcomes between the intervention and control groups. In some instances, using the patient initiated clinics model was associated with savings in time and resource use. The risk of harm from using the patient initiated clinic model of organising outpatient care is low. Studies with longer follow-up periods are needed to assess the long term costs and the ongoing risk of potential harms. CONCLUSIONS: the UK policy context is ripe for evidence-based, patient-centred services to be implemented, especially where the use of health care resources can be optimised without reducing the quality of care. Implementation of patient initiated clinics should remain cautious, with importance placed on ongoing evaluation of long term outcomes and costs.

BACKGROUND: in the UK, approximately 10 000 people have cochlear implants, more than 99% with a unilateral implant. Evidence shows that adults implanted bilaterally may benefit from binaural advantages; however, systematic review evidence is limited. OBJECTIVES OF THE REVIEW: to conduct a systematic review to discover the evidence for effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using bilateral cochlear implants in adults with severe-to-profound hearing loss by comparing their effectiveness with unilateral cochlear implantation or unilateral cochlear implantation and acoustic hearing aid in the contralateral ear. TYPE OF REVIEW: Systematic review. SEARCH STRATEGY: This examined 16 electronic databases, plus bibliographies and references for published and unpublished studies. EVALUATION METHOD: Abstracts were independently assessed against inclusion criteria by two researchers, and disagreements were resolved. Selected papers were then retrieved and further independently assessed in a similar way. Included studies had their data extracted by one reviewer and checked by another. RESULTS: Searches yielded 2892 abstracts producing 19 includable studies. Heterogeneity between studies precluded meta-analysis. However, all studies reported that bilateral cochlear implants improved hearing and speech perception: one randomised controlled trial found a significant binaural benefit over the first ear alone for speech and noise from the front (12.6 ± 5.4%, P < 0.001) and when noise was ipsilateral to the first ear (21 ± 6%, P < 0.001); and another found a significant benefit for spatial hearing at 3 and 9 months post-implantation compared with pre-implantation [mean difference (sd) scores: 3 months = 1.46 (0.83-2.09), P < 0.01].Quality of life results varied, showing bilateral implantation may improve quality of life in the absence of worsening tinnitus. Limited cost-effectiveness evidence showed that bilateral implantation is probably only cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold above £62 000 per quality adjusted life year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite inconsistency in the quality of available evidence, the robustness of systematic review methods gives weight to the positive findings of included studies demonstrating that bilateral implantation is clinically effective in adults but unlikely to be cost-effective.

OBJECTIVE: in the U.K. people with diabetes are typically screened for retinopathy annually. However, diabetic retinopathy sometimes has a slow progression rate. We developed a simulation model to predict the likely impact of screening patients with type 2 diabetes, who have not been diagnosed with diabetic retinopathy, every 2 years rather than annually. We aimed to assess whether or not such a policy would increase the proportion of patients who developed retinopathy-mediated vision loss compared with the current policy, along with the potential cost savings that could be achieved. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We developed a model that simulates the progression of retinopathy in type 2 diabetic patients, and the screening of these patients, to predict rates of retinopathy-mediated vision loss. We populated the model with data obtained from a National Health Service Foundation Trust. We generated comparative 15-year forecasts to assess the differences between the current and proposed screening policies. RESULTS the simulation model predicts that implementing a 2-year screening interval for type 2 diabetic patients without evidence of diabetic retinopathy does not increase their risk of vision loss. Furthermore, we predict that this policy could reduce screening costs by ~25%. CONCLUSIONS: Screening people with type 2 diabetes, who have not yet developed retinopathy, every 2 years, rather than annually, is a safe and cost-effective strategy. Our findings support those of other studies, and we therefore recommend a review of the current National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines for diabetic retinopathy screening implemented in the U.K.

BACKGROUND: Spasticity is common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and is a major contributor to disability. Sativex®, an oromucosal spray containing cannabis-based medicinal products, has been found to be effective in reducing spasticity symptoms. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to estimate the cost effectiveness of Sativex® plus oral anti-spasticity medicines compared with the current standard treatment for moderate or severe spasticity in MS in the UK. METHODS: a Markov model was used to assess the costs and benefits of Sativex® plus oral anti-spasticity medicines or current standard treatment based on their effects on the quality of life of patients. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of costs per additional QALY gained over 5 years of treatment. One-way, multi-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties on the findings. RESULTS: in the base case, Sativex® plus oral anti-spasticity medicines resulted in incremental costs of £7600 and a QALY gain of 0.15 per person over 5 years (ICER = £49 300 per QALY).[year 2009 data for costs]. Findings were sensitive to the costs of Sativex® (price and dose) and differences in utilities between responders and non-responders. CONCLUSIONS: Using a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30 000 per QALY, Sativex® appears unlikely to be considered cost effective by UK funders of healthcare for spasticity in MS. This is unfortunate, since it appears that Sativex® use is likely to benefit some patients in the management of this common consequence of MS.

OBJECTIVE: • to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of degarelix vs luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogue (triptorelin) plus short-term antiandrogen treatment for advanced prostate cancer. METHODS: • We developed a decision analytic model based on a clinical trial and literature review. The two interventions evaluated were: (i) monthly injection of degarelix and (ii) 3-monthly triptorelin therapy plus short-term flutamide, cyproterone or bicalutamide treatment. • the model consisted of a decision tree monitoring a hypothetical cohort of patients aged 70 years from the start of hormonal treatment to the end of the first month, and a Markov model monitoring patients from the end of month 1 for a time horizon of 10 years (i.e. when 96% of patients are assumed to have died). • the base-case analysis assumed patients present with asymptomatic metastatic prostate cancer. Costs and outcomes were collected over the model time horizon. Outcome measures were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. • Sensitivity analyses (one-way and multi-way) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the uncertainties around the assumptions. RESULTS: • in the base-case analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for degarelix vs triptorelin plus antiandrogen was £59 000 per QALY gained. • the model was most sensitive to the rate of significant adverse events in the triptorelin plus antiandrogen group. The model was also sensitive to the assumed survival of patients with metastatic prostate cancer and the price of degarelix. • the results of the probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested that there was a low probability (9.6%) of degarelix being the most cost-effective treatment option when a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30 000 per QALY gained is assumed. CONCLUSION: • Degarelix is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to triptorelin plus short-term antiandrogen in the management of advanced prostate cancer with respect to the usual thresholds of cost-effectiveness used in the UK: £20 000-30 000 per QALY gained (used by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence). © 2011 the Authors. BJU International © 2011 BJU International.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of degarelix vs luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogue (triptorelin) plus short-term antiandrogen treatment for advanced prostate cancer. METHODS: We developed a decision analytic model based on a clinical trial and literature review. The two interventions evaluated were: (i) monthly injection of degarelix and (ii) 3-monthly triptorelin therapy plus short-term flutamide, cyproterone or bicalutamide treatment. The model consisted of a decision tree monitoring a hypothetical cohort of patients aged 70 years from the start of hormonal treatment to the end of the first month, and a Markov model monitoring patients from the end of month 1 for a time horizon of 10 years (i.e. when 96% of patients are assumed to have died). The base-case analysis assumed patients present with asymptomatic metastatic prostate cancer. Costs and outcomes were collected over the model time horizon. Outcome measures were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity analyses (one-way and multi-way) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the uncertainties around the assumptions. RESULTS: in the base-case analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for degarelix vs triptorelin plus antiandrogen was £59,000 per QALY gained. The model was most sensitive to the rate of significant adverse events in the triptorelin plus antiandrogen group. The model was also sensitive to the assumed survival of patients with metastatic prostate cancer and the price of degarelix. The results of the probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested that there was a low probability (9.6%) of degarelix being the most cost-effective treatment option when a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000 per QALY gained is assumed. CONCLUSION: Degarelix is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to triptorelin plus short-term antiandrogen in the management of advanced prostate cancer with respect to the usual thresholds of cost-effectiveness used in the UK: £20,000-30,000 per QALY gained (used by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence).

OBJECTIVES: the aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alemtuzumab (CAMPATH-1H) compared with conventional chemotherapy in people with T-cell prolymphocytic leukemia (T-PLL). METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic model to assess the costs and benefits of alemtuzumab or conventional therapy based on their effects on quality of life of patients. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio incorporating costs per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained over lifetime. Due to the limited data available, a large number of assumptions had to be made to construct the cost-utility model. One-way, multi-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to explore the impact of these uncertainties. Expected values of perfect information were also calculated for four specific scenarios. RESULTS: Depending on different key assumptions made, the PSA suggested distinct conclusions using a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 GBP per QALY gained. Using this threshold, the probability that alemtuzumab would be cost-effective varies from 0 percent to 53 percent for the four modeled scenarios. Population expected value of perfect information analysis suggests that resolving the parameter uncertainty in the analysis for people with T-PLL in the United Kingdom would have considerable value--up to 5.3 million euro. CONCLUSIONS: Alemtuzumab appears more likely to be cost-effective if used earlier in the course of T-PLL and where it replaces the use of multiple alternative therapies. However, cost-effectiveness is highly uncertain and future research is clearly justified. Nevertheless, our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of considering the cost-effectiveness of an agent despite the presence of significant uncertainty to provide appropriate assessment information to policy makers.

BACKGROUND: Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) is a form of cancer affecting the blood, characterised by excessive proliferation of white blood cells in the bone marrow and circulating blood. In the UK, an estimated 560 new cases of CML are diagnosed each year. OBJECTIVES: the purpose of this study was to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib in the treatment of people with imatinib-resistant (ImR) and imatinib-intolerant (ImI) CML. A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness literature, a review of manufacturer submissions and a critique and exploration of manufacturer submissions for accelerated phase and blast crisis CML were carried out and a decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib in chronic phase CML. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW METHODS: Key databases were searched for relevant studies from their inception to June 2009 [MEDLINE (including MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations), EMBASE, (ISI Web of Science) Conference Proceedings Citation Index and four others]. One reviewer assessed titles and abstracts of studies identified by the search strategy, with a sample checked by a second reviewer. The full text of relevant papers was obtained and screened against the full inclusion criteria independently by two reviewers. Data from included studies were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Clinical effectiveness studies were synthesised through narrative review. ECONOMIC EVALUATION METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analyses reported in manufacturer submissions to the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence were critically appraised and summarised narratively. In addition, the models for accelerated phase and blast crisis underwent a more detailed critique and exploration. Two separate decision-analytic models were developed for chronic phase CML, one simulating a cohort of individuals who have shown or developed resistance to normal dose imatinib and one representing individuals who have been unable to continue imatinib treatment owing to adverse events. One-way, multiway and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore structural and parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included in the systematic review. Chronic phase: effectiveness data were limited but dasatinib and nilotinib appeared efficacious in terms of obtaining cytogenetic response and haematological response in both ImR and ImI populations. In terms of cost-effectiveness, it was extremely difficult to reach any conclusions regarding either agent in the ImR population. All three models (Novartis, PenTAG and Bristol-Myers Squibb) were seriously flawed in one way or another, as a consequence of the paucity of data appropriate to construct robust decision-analytic models. Accelerated and blast crisis: all available data originated from observational single-arm studies and there were considerable and potentially important differences in baseline characteristics which seriously undermined any process for making meaningful comparisons between treatments. Owing to a lack of available clinical data, de novo models of accelerated phase and blast crisis have not been developed. The economic evaluations carried out by the manufacturers of nilotinib and dasatinib were seriously undermined by the absence of evidence on high-dose imatinib in these populations. LIMITATIONS: the study has been necessarily constrained by the paucity of available clinical data, the differences in definitions used in the studies and the subsequent impossibility of undertaking a meaningful cost-effectiveness analyses to inform all policy questions. CONCLUSIONS: Dasatinib and nilotinib appeared efficacious in terms of obtaining cytogenetic and haematological responses in both ImR and ImI populations. It was difficult to reach any cost-effectiveness conclusions as a consequence of the paucity of the data. Future research should include a three-way, double-blind, randomised clinical trial of dasatinib, nilotinib and high-dose imatinib.

Objective: to compare the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing the rate of acute paediatric hospital admissions. Design: Systematic review. Data sources: Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, the Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index Expanded from inception to September 2010; hand searches of the reference lists of included papers and other review papers identified in the search. Review methods: Controlled trials were included. Articles were screened for inclusion independently by two reviewers. Data extraction and quality appraisal were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second with discrepancies resolved by discussion with a third if necessary. Results: Seven papers were included. There is some evidence to suggest that short stay units may reduce admission rates. However, there is a general lack of detail in the reporting of interventions and the methods used in their evaluation which precludes detailed interpretation and extrapolation of the results. The authors found no evidence that the use of algorithms and guidelines to manage the admission decision was effective in reducing acute admission rates. Furthermore, the authors were unable to locate any eligible papers reporting the effects on admission rates of admission decision by paediatric consultant, telephone triage by paediatric consultant or the establishment of next day emergency paediatric clinics. Conclusion: There is little published evidence upon which to base an optimal strategy for reducing paediatric admission rates. The evidence that does exist is subject to substantial bias. There is a pressing need for high quality, well conducted research to enable informed service change.

OBJECTIVE: to compare the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing the rate of acute paediatric hospital admissions. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, the Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index Expanded from inception to September 2010; hand searches of the reference lists of included papers and other review papers identified in the search. REVIEW METHODS: Controlled trials were included. Articles were screened for inclusion independently by two reviewers. Data extraction and quality appraisal were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second with discrepancies resolved by discussion with a third if necessary. RESULTS: Seven papers were included. There is some evidence to suggest that short stay units may reduce admission rates. However, there is a general lack of detail in the reporting of interventions and the methods used in their evaluation which precludes detailed interpretation and extrapolation of the results. The authors found no evidence that the use of algorithms and guidelines to manage the admission decision was effective in reducing acute admission rates. Furthermore, the authors were unable to locate any eligible papers reporting the effects on admission rates of admission decision by paediatric consultant, telephone triage by paediatric consultant or the establishment of next day emergency paediatric clinics. CONCLUSION: There is little published evidence upon which to base an optimal strategy for reducing paediatric admission rates. The evidence that does exist is subject to substantial bias. There is a pressing need for high quality, well conducted research to enable informed service change.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: to maximize the benefits of thrombolysis, it is necessary not only to treat more patients, but to deliver treatment as early as possible. The aims of our study were to prospectively evaluate the clinical benefit from reducing delays in the emergency stroke pathway at our district hospital and examine outcomes from scenarios that include extension of the alteplase license. METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation from prospective data for patients with stroke arriving at our large district hospital. We modeled current practice and assessed the impact on stroke outcomes of measures to reduce in-hospital delays to alteplase treatment and of extensions to the European license for alteplase from 3 to 4.5 hours and to people aged >80 years. RESULTS: Extension of the time window to 4.5 hours increases the thrombolysis rate by 4%, yielding an additional 2 patients per year with minimal or no disability at 3 months. Time window extension is most effective when combined with a system of prealerts, achieving a thrombolysis rate of 15% and an additional 8 patients per year with minimal or no disability, increasing to 13 patients per year with extension of the license to patients >80 years. CONCLUSIONS: If implemented alone, extension of the time window for alteplase has only a modest additional population disability benefit, but this benefit can be increased 5-fold if time window extension is combined with substantial reductions to in-hospital delays.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Pooled analyses show benefits of intravenous alteplase (recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator) treatment for acute ischemic stroke up to 4.5 hours after onset despite marketing approval for up to 3 hours. However, the benefit from thrombolysis is critically time-dependent and if extending the time window reduces treatment urgency, this could reduce the population benefit from any extension. METHODS: Based on 3830 UK patients registered between 2005 to 2010 in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke-International Stroke Thrombolysis Registry (SITS-ISTR), a Monte Carlo simulation was used to model recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator treatment up to 4·5 hours from onset and assess the impact (numbers surviving with little or no disability) from changes in hospital treatment times associated with this extended time window. RESULTS: We observed a significant relation between time remaining to treat and time taken to treat in the UK SITS-ISTR data set after adjustment for censoring. Simulation showed that as this "deadline effect" increases, an extended treatment time window entails that an increasing number of patients are treated at a progressively lower absolute benefit to a point where the population benefit from extending the time window is entirely negated. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the benefit for individual patients treated up to 4.5 hours after onset, the population benefit may be reduced or lost altogether if extending the time window results in more patients being treated but at a lower absolute benefit. A universally applied reduction in hospital arrival to treatment times of 8 minutes would confer a population benefit as large as the time window extension.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib compared with high-dose imatinib for people with chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia, which are resistant to normal-dose imatinib and compared with interferon-α for people intolerant to imatinib, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. METHODS: an an area under the curve partitioned survival model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib. Clinical effectiveness evidence was taken mostly from single-arm trials. RESULTS: Both progression-free survival and overall survival are highly uncertain. In the base case, patients take nilotinib for much less time than dasatinib. Nilotinib is expected to dominate high-dose imatinib, yielding slightly more (0.32) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at slightly less cost (£11,100 [pound sterling]) per person. Dasatinib is predicted to provide slightly more (0.53) QALYs at substantially greater cost (£48,900), yielding a very high incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £91,500 QALY against high-dose imatinib. Cost-effectiveness, however, changes radically under the plausible assumption that the drugs are taken for the same time. For people intolerant to imatinib, nilotinib is expected to yield an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £104,700/QALY, and dasatinib £82,600/QALY compared with interferon-α. Further, both drugs represent poor value for money for a range of plausible structural assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: the model should be viewed as an exploratory analysis of the cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib because it relies on many assumptions. Whilst clinical data remains immature, the cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib for imatinib-resistant people is highly uncertain. Both nilotinib and dasatinib are highly unlikely to be cost-effective versus interferon-α for people intolerant to imatinib.

Our objective was to compare the effects on mental and physical wellbeing, health related quality of life and long-term adherence to physical activity, of participation in physical activity in natural environments compared with physical activity indoors. We conducted a systematic review using the following data sources: Medline, Embase, Psychinfo, GreenFILE, SportDISCUS, the Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, Arts and Humanities Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index--Science and BIOSIS from inception to June 2010. Internet searches of relevant Web sites, hand searches of relevant journals, and the reference lists of included papers and other review papers identified in the search were also searched for relevant information. Controlled trials (randomized and nonrandomized) were included. To be eligible trials had to compare the effects of outdoor exercise initiatives with those conducted indoors and report on at least one physical or mental wellbeing outcome in adults or children. Screening of articles for inclusion, data extraction, and quality appraisal were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second with discrepancies resolved by discussion with a third if necessary. Due to the heterogeneity of identified studies a narrative synthesis was performed. Eleven trials (833 adults) were included. Most participants (6 trials; 523 adults) were young students. Study entry criteria and methods were sparsely reported. All interventions consisted of a single episode of walking or running indoors with the same activity at a similar level conducted outdoors on a separate occasion. A total of 13 different outcome measures were used to evaluate the effects of exercise on mental wellbeing, and 4 outcome measures were used to assess attitude to exercise. Most trials (n = 9) showed some improvement in mental wellbeing on one or other of the outcome measures. Compared with exercising indoors, exercising in natural environments was associated with greater feelings of revitalization and positive engagement, decreases in tension, confusion, anger, and depression, and increased energy. However, the results suggested that feelings of calmness may be decreased following outdoor exercise. Participants reported greater enjoyment and satisfaction with outdoor activity and declared a greater intent to repeat the activity at a later date. None of the identified studies measured the effects of physical activity on physical wellbeing or the effect of natural environments on exercise adherence. The hypothesis that there are added beneficial effects to be gained from performing physical activity outdoors in natural environments is very appealing and has generated considerable interest. This review has shown some promising effects on self-reported mental wellbeing immediately following exercise in nature which are not seen following the same exercise indoors. However, the interpretation and extrapolation of these findings is hampered by the poor methodological quality of the available evidence and the heterogeneity of outcome measures employed. The review demonstrates the paucity of high quality evidence on which to base recommendations and reveals an undoubted need for further research in this area. Large, well designed, longer term trials in populations who might benefit most from the potential advantages of outdoor exercise are needed to fully elucidate the effects on mental and physical wellbeing. The influence of these effects on the sustainability of physical activity initiatives also awaits investigation.

OBJECTIVES: to assess how much competitive sport contributes to sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young athletes and the impact on population health if this group were to be screened in the UK. METHODS: Using reported and imputed incidence rates of SCD in athletes and non-athletes and false-negative and false-positive test rates reported in three key Italian screening studies, the authors calculated the population and attributable risk fractions of SCD in young athletes and the total population (athletes and non-athletes) aged 12-35 years before and after screening; the number of athletes needed to screen (NNS) to prevent one SCD and the sensitivity and the specificity of screening with electrocardiogram. Using these parameters, the authors developed a decision tree model based on the UK population aged 12-35 years to estimate the annual number of SCDs, the expected number of screening and diagnostic tests and the number of athletes disqualified from competitive sport per SCD prevented. RESULTS: Participation in competitive athletics contributes to 81.9% (62.4% to 91.6%) of SCD in athletes but only 26.6% (-20.3% to 55.8%) in the total population. After screening, the contribution in the total population falls to 7.2% (-10.7% to 22.4%). The NNS is 38 151 (20 534 to 267 380). A UK screening programme would result in 1 520 021 young athletes being screened, with 140 361 referred for diagnosis. of an expected 196 SCDs per year, 40 (6 to 74) would be prevented. For every life saved, 791 athletes would be disqualified. CONCLUSIONS: the impact of screening on reducing SCD in young athletes is only modest and would be achieved with significant harms to population health.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab, combined with interferon (IFN), sorafenib tosylate, sunitinib and temsirolimus in the treatment of people with advanced and/or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library, were searched up to September/October 2007 (and again in February 2008). REVIEW METHODS: Systematic reviews and randomised clinical trials comparing any of the interventions with any of the comparators in participants with advanced and/or metastatic RCC were included, also phase II studies and conference abstracts if there was sufficient detail to adequately assess quality. Results were synthesised narratively and a decision-analytic Markov-type model was developed to simulate disease progression and estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions under consideration. RESULTS: a total of 888 titles and abstracts were retrieved in the clinical effectiveness review, including reports of eight clinical trials. Treatment with bevacizumab plus IFN or sunitinib had clinically relevant and statistically significant advantages over treatment with IFN alone, in terms of progression-free survival and tumour response, doubling median progression-free survival from approximately 5 months to 10 months. Temsirolimus had similar advantages over treatment with IFN in terms of progression-free and overall survival, increasing median overall survival from 7.3 to 10.9 months [hazard ratio (HR) 0.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 0.92)], as did sorafenib in comparison with best supportive care in terms of overall survival, progression-free survival and tumour response, with a doubling of progression-free survival (HR 0.51; 95% CI 0.43 to 0.60). However, the last was associated with an increased frequency of hypertension and hand-foot skin reaction compared with placebo. No fully published economic evaluations of any of the interventions could be located. However, estimates from the PenTAG model suggested that none of the interventions would be considered cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Estimates of cost per QALY ranged from 71,462 pounds for sunitinib to 171,301 pounds for bevacizumab plus IFN. Although there are many similarities in the methodology and structural assumptions employed by PenTAG and the manufacturers of the interventions, in all cases the cost-effectiveness estimates from the PenTAG model were higher than those presented in the manufacturers' submissions. Cost-effectiveness estimates were particularly sensitive to variations in the estimates of treatment effectiveness, drug pricing (including dose intensity data), and health-state utility input parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with bevacizumab plus IFN and sunitinib has clinically relevant and statistically significant advantages over treatment with IFN alone in patients with metastatic RCC. In people with three of six risk factors for poor prognosis, temsirolimus had clinically relevant advantages over treatment with IFN, and sorafenib tosylate was superior to best supportive care as second-line therapy. The frequency of adverse events associated with bevacizumab plus IFN, sunitinib and temsirolimus was comparable with that seen with IFN, although the adverse event profile is different. Treatment with sorafenib was associated with a significantly increased frequency of hypertension and hand-foot syndrome. Estimates from the PenTAG model suggested that none of the interventions would be considered cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds per QALY.

BACKGROUND: Order communication systems (OCS) are computer applications used to enter diagnostic and therapeutic patient care orders and to view test results. Many potential benefits of OCS have been identified including improvements in clinician ordering patterns, optimisation of clinical time, and aiding communication processes between clinicians and different departments. Many OCS now include computerised decision support systems (CDSS), which are information systems designed to improve clinical decision-making. CDSS match individual patient characteristics to a computerised knowledge base, and software algorithms generate patient-specific recommendations. OBJECTIVES: to investigate which CDSS in OCS are in use within the UK and the impact of CDSS in OCS for diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering compared to OCS without CDSS. To determine what features of CDSS are associated with clinician or patient acceptance of CDSS in OCS and what is known about the cost-effectiveness of CDSS in diagnostic, screening or monitoring test OCS compared to OCS without CDSS. DATA SOURCES: a generic search to identify potentially relevant studies for inclusion was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CCTR), CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects), Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database, IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers) Xplore digital library, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and EconLit, searched between 1974 and 2009 with a total of 22,109 titles and abstracts screened for inclusion. REVIEW METHODS: CDSS for diagnostic, screening and monitoring test ordering OCS in use in the UK were identified through contact with the 24 manufacturers/suppliers currently contracted by the National Project for Information Technology (NpfIT) to provide either national or specialist decision support. A generic search to identify potentially relevant studies for inclusion in the review was conducted on a range of medical, social science and economic databases. The review was undertaken using standard systematic review methods, with studies being screened for inclusion, data extracted and quality assessed by two reviewers. Results were broadly grouped according to the type of CDSS intervention and study design where possible. These were then combined using a narrative synthesis with relevant quantitative results tabulated. RESULTS: Results of the studies included in review were highly mixed and equivocal, often both within and between studies, but broadly showed a beneficial impact of the use of CDSS in conjunction with OCS over and above OCS alone. Overall, if the findings of both primary and secondary outcomes are taken into account, then CDSS significantly improved practitioner performance in 15 out of 24 studies (62.5%). Only two studies covered the cost-effectiveness of CDSS: a Dutch study reported a mean cost decrease of 3% for blood tests orders (639 euros) in each of the intervention clinics compared with a 2% (208 euros) increase in control clinics in test costs; and a Spanish study reported a significant increase in the cost of laboratory tests from 41.8 euros per patient per annum to 47.2 euros after implementation of the system. LIMITATIONS: the response rate from the survey of manufacturers and suppliers was extremely low at only 17% and much of the feedback was classified as being commercial-in-confidence (CIC). No studies were identified which assessed the features of CDSS that are associated with clinician or patient acceptance of CDSS in OCS in the test ordering process and only limited data was available on the cost-effectiveness of CDSS plus OCS compared with OCS alone and the findings highly specific. Although CDSS appears to have a potentially small positive impact on diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering, the majority of studies come from a limited number of institutions in the USA. CONCLUSIONS: If the findings of both primary and secondary outcomes are taken into account then CDSS showed a statistically significant benefit on either process or practitioner performance outcomes in nearly two-thirds of the studies. Furthermore, in four studies that assessed adverse effects of either test cancellation or delay, no significant detrimental effects in terms of additional utilisation of health-care resources or adverse events were observed. We believe the key current need is for a well designed and comprehensive survey, and on the basis of the results of this potentially for evaluation studies in the form of cluster randomised controlled trials or randomised controlled trials which incorporate process, and patient outcomes, as well as full economic evaluations alongside the trials to assess the impact of CDSS in conjunction with OCS versus OCS alone for diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering in the NHS. The economic evaluation should incorporate the full costs of potentially developing, testing, and installing the system, including staff training costs. STUDY REGISTRATION: Study registration 61.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the cost-effectiveness of sorafenib (Nexavar, Bayer, Leverkusen, Germany) versus best supportive care (BSC) for second-line treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. METHODS: a decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of sorafenib. The clinical effectiveness of sorafenib versus BSC was taken from a recent randomized phase III trial. Utility values were taken from a phase II trial of sunitinib, using EQ-5D tariffs. Cost data were obtained from published literature and were based on current UK practice. The effect of parameter uncertainty on cost-effectiveness was explored through extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Compared to BSC, sorafenib treatment resulted in an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of pound75,398, based on an estimated mean gain of 0.27 QALYs per patient, at a mean additional cost of pound20,063 (inflated to 2007/2008). The probability that sorafenib is cost-effective compared to BSC at a willingness to pay threshold of pound30,000 per QALY is 0.0%. In sensitivity analysis, estimates of cost per QALY were sensitive to changes in the clinical effectiveness parameters, and to health state utilities and drug costs. CONCLUSIONS: Sorafenib has been shown to be clinically effective compared to BSC, offering additional health benefits; however, with a cost per QALY in excess of pound70,000, it may not be regarded as a cost-effective use of resources in some health-care settings.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the cost-effectiveness of temsirolimus compared to interferon-alpha for first line treatment of patients with advanced, poor prognosis renal cell carcinoma, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. METHODS: a decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of temsirolimus. The clinical effectiveness of temsirolimus compared with interferon-alpha and the utility values (using EQ-5D tariffs) were taken from a recent phase III randomized clinical trial. Cost data were obtained from published literature and based on current UK practice. The effect of parameter uncertainty on cost-effectiveness was explored through extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Compared to interferon-alpha, temsirolimus treatment resulted in an incremental cost per QALY gained of pound94,632; based on an estimated mean gain of 0.24 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient, at a mean additional cost of pound22,331 (inflated to 2007/8). The cost per QALY for patient subgroups ranged from pound74,369 to pound154,752. The probability that temsirolimus is cost-effective compared to interferon-alpha at a willingness to pay threshold of pound30,000 per QALY for all patient groups is expected to be close to zero. The cost per QALY was sensitive to the clinical effectiveness parameters, health state utilities, drug costs and the cost of administration of temsirolimus. CONCLUSIONS: Temsirolimus has been shown to be clinically effective compared to interferon-alpha offering additional health benefits, however, with a cost per QALY in excess of pound90,000, it may not be regarded as a cost-effective use of resources in some health care settings.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the effect of acoustic cueing using metronomes on the quality of life of people with moderate to severe Parkinson's disease. STUDY DESIGN: Pragmatic, single-blind, randomized cross-over trial. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-two people aged 50-85 years, in Hoehn and Yahr stage II-IV and on stable medication. Eight were lost to follow-up. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomized using concealed allocation to either an early group (n = 21) to receive an electronic metronome without therapy but limited support (5-10 minutes instruction and on-demand telephone assistance) for four weeks, or a late group (n = 21) to receive the same intervention at 10 weeks. In both groups the beat frequency was initially set to be comfortable for walking. OUTCOMES MEASURES: Primary and secondary outcomes were measured at baseline, 4, 10 and 14 weeks using the Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire 39 (PDQ-39), the Short Form 36 version 2 (SF-36 version 2) and a falls diary. RESULTS: There were positive effects in six domains of the SF-36 version 2 and eight domains of the PDQ-39, although only one mean difference was clinically important: the role limitation (emotional) domain of SF-36 version 2 (a mean difference of 3.77, 95% confidence interval (CI), -2.68 to 10.22), a secondary outcome. None of these changes were statistically significant. There were no statistically significant differences in falls rates over the study period. Ten participants (24%) wanted to continue with their metronomes at the end of the study. CONCLUSION: to demonstrate metronomes are beneficial on the role limitation domain of the SF-36 version 2 in people with moderate to severe Parkinson's disease a sample size of 600 would be required.

OBJECTIVE: in the UK approximately 3% of over 50 years olds and 8% of over 70 year olds have severe (794-94 dBHL) to deafness. As deafness increased, hearing aids become increasingly ineffective. Cochelear implants can provide an alternative treatment. OBJECTIVE OF REVIEW: to bring together the research evidence through the robustness of a systematic review of the effectiveness of unilateral cochlear implants for adults. We also sought to systematically review the published literature on cost-effectiveness. TYPES OF REVIEW: Systematic review. SEARCH STRATEGY: This examined 16 electronic databases, plus bibliographies and references for published and unpublished studies from inception to june 2009. EVALUATION METHOD: Abstracts were independently assessed against inclusion criteria by two researchers were compared and disagreements resolved. Included papers were then retrieved and further independently assessed in a similar way. Remaining studies had their data independently extracted by one of five reviewers and checked by another reviewer. RESULTS: from 1,580 titles and abstracts nine studies were included. These were of variable quality; some study's results should be viewed with caution. The studies were too hetrogeneous to pool the data. However, overall the results firmly supported the use of unilateral cochler implants for severe to profoundly deaf adults. Additionally, four UK based economic evaluations found unilateral cochlear implants to be cost-effectivene in adults at UK implants centres. CONCLUSION: the methodologically weak but universally positive body of effectiveness evidence supports the use of unilateral cochlear implants in adults. Previous economic evaluations indicate that such implants are likely to be cost-effective.

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rituximab for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) based upon a review of the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The manufacturer's searches for clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data were appropriate and included all relevant studies. The submission's evidence came from a single, unpublished, well-conducted randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (FC) alone for the first-line treatment of CLL. There was a statistically significant increase in progression-free survival (PFS) with R-FC compared with FC alone {median 39.8 months vs 32.2 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43 to 0.72]}. However, the initial significant treatment benefit for R-FC compared with FC for overall survival was not maintained at a slightly longer follow-up time [median 25.4 months; adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.09)]. Response rates, numbers of patients with event-free survival and duration of response all favoured treatment with R-FC. Additional evidence from a mixed-treatment comparison model indicated R-FC to be significantly superior to chlorambucil alone for both PFS and overall and complete response rates. The incidence of grade 3 or 4 adverse events was higher in the R-FC arm (77%) than in the FC arm (62%). Dose modifications were also more frequent in this arm, but this did not lead to differences in treatment discontinuation. Roche used a three-state Markov model (PFS, progressed and death) to model the cost-effectiveness of R-FC compared with FC and chlorambucil alone. The model used a cycle length of 1 month and a lifetime time horizon. The approach taken to modelling was reasonable and the sources and justification of estimates were generally sound. The base-case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 13,189 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for R-FC versus FC, and 6422 pounds per QALY for the comparison of R-FC versus chlorambucil, suggesting that R-FC is cost-effective at normal willingness-to-pay thresholds. One-way sensitivity analyses produced a range of ICERs from 10,249 pounds to 22,661 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus FC, and 5612 pounds and 6921 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus chlorambucil. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results matched the deterministic results very closely. However, the sensitivity analysis did not fully investigate the uncertainty associated with differential values across arms or with the structural assumptions of the model, and utility values were not drawn from an empirical study. The NICE guidance issued as a result of the STA states that: Rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) is recommended as an option for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in people for whom fludarabine in combination with cyclophosphamide (FC) is considered appropriate. Rituximab in combination with chemotherapy agents other than fludarabine and cyclophosphamide is not recommended for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rituximab for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) based upon a review of the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The manufacturer's searches for clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data were appropriate and included all relevant studies. The submission's evidence came from a single, unpublished, well-conducted randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (FC) alone for the first-line treatment of CLL. There was a statistically significant increase in progression-free survival (PFS) with R-FC compared with FC alone {median 39.8 months vs 32.2 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43 to 0.72]}. However, the initial significant treatment benefit for R-FC compared with FC for overall survival was not maintained at a slightly longer follow-up time [median 25.4 months; adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.09)]. Response rates, numbers of patients with event-free survival and duration of response all favoured treatment with R-FC. Additional evidence from a mixed-treatment comparison model indicated R-FC to be significantly superior to chlorambucil alone for both PFS and overall and complete response rates. The incidence of grade 3 or 4 adverse events was higher in the R-FC arm (77%) than in the FC arm (62%). Dose modifications were also more frequent in this arm, but this did not lead to differences in treatment discontinuation. Roche used a three-state Markov model (PFS, progressed and death) to model the cost-effectiveness of R-FC compared with FC and chlorambucil alone. The model used a cycle length of 1 month and a lifetime time horizon. The approach taken to modelling was reasonable and the sources and justification of estimates were generally sound. The base-case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 13,189 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for R-FC versus FC, and 6422 pounds per QALY for the comparison of R-FC versus chlorambucil, suggesting that R-FC is cost-effective at normal willingness-to-pay thresholds. One-way sensitivity analyses produced a range of ICERs from 10,249 pounds to 22,661 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus FC, and 5612 pounds and 6921 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus chlorambucil. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results matched the deterministic results very closely. However, the sensitivity analysis did not fully investigate the uncertainty associated with differential values across arms or with the structural assumptions of the model, and utility values were not drawn from an empirical study. The NICE guidance issued as a result of the STA states that: Rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) is recommended as an option for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in people for whom fludarabine in combination with cyclophosphamide (FC) is considered appropriate. Rituximab in combination with chemotherapy agents other than fludarabine and cyclophosphamide is not recommended for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

BACKGROUND: Annually an estimated 223 children in the UK are born with or acquire permanent profound bilateral deafness (PBHL >or= 95 dB). These children may gain little or no benefit from acoustic hearing aids. However, cochlear implants might enable them to hear. OBJECTIVES OF THE REVIEW: to bring together the diverse research in this area under the rigor of a systematic review to discover the strength of evidence when comparing the effectiveness of unilateral cochlear implants with non-technological support or acoustic hearing aids in children with PBHL. TYPE OF REVIEW: Systematic review. SEARCH STRATEGY: This examined 16 electronic data bases, plus bibliographies and references for published and unpublished studies. EVALUATION METHOD: Abstracts were independently assessed against inclusion criteria by two researchers, results were compared and disagreements resolved. Included papers were then retrieved and further independently assessed in a similar way. Remaining studies had their data independently extracted by one of five reviewers and checked by another reviewer. RESULTS: from 1,580 abstracts and titles 15 studies were included. These were of moderate to poor quality. The large amount of heterogeneity in design and outcomes precluded meta-analysis. However, all studies reported that unilateral cochlear implants improved scores on all outcome measures. Additionally five economic evaluations found unilateral cochlear implants to be cost-effective for profoundly deaf children at UK implant centres. CONCLUSIONS: the robustness of systematic review methods gives weight to the positive findings of 15 papers reporting on this subject that they individually lack; while an RCT to show this would be unethical.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combined resynchronisation and implantable defibrillator therapy for left ventricular dysfunction and explore subgroups in which such devices might be most cost-effective. DESIGN: Markov model-based economic evaluation. SETTING: UK NHS. PARTICIPANTS: a simulated mixed age cohort of NYHA class III and IV patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and prolonged QRS interval. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per quality adjusted life year gained over the patient lifetime. RESULTS: the incremental cost-effectiveness of resynchronisation therapy alone compared with optimal medical therapy was pound16,735 (95% CI: pound14,630 to pound20,333) with a 91% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of pound30,000. Compared with resynchronisation alone, the incremental cost-effectiveness of combined implantable defibrillator was pound40,160 (95% CI: pound26,645 to pound59,391) with only a 26% probability of cost-effectiveness at the pound30,000 threshold. In a direct comparison across three treatments (medical treatment, resynchronisation alone and combined resynchronisation with implantable defibrillator therapy) resynchronisation alone was found to be the most cost-effective option. CONCLUSION: Combined resynchronisation and implantable defibrillator therapy is not cost-effective for left ventricular dysfunction. Instead resynchronisation alone remains the most cost-effective policy option in this population. Combined devices are more likely to be cost-effective in the subgroups of younger patients or those with high risk of sudden cardiac death who would qualify for resynchronisation therapy.

BACKGROUND: Two new agents have recently been licensed for use in the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in Europe. This paper aims to systematically review the evidence from all available randomised clinical trials of sunitinib and bevacizumab (in combination with interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha)) in the treatment of advanced metastatic RCC. METHODS: Systematic literature searches were performed in six electronic databases. Bibliographies of included studies were searched for further relevant studies. Individual conference proceedings were searched using their online interfaces. Studies were selected according to the predefined criteria. All randomised clinical trials of sunitinib or bevacizumab in combination with IFN for treating advanced metastatic RCC in accordance with the European licensed indication were included. Study selection, data extraction, validation and quality assessment were performed by two reviewers with disagreements being settled by discussion. The effects of sunitinib and bevacizumab (in combination with IFN-alpha) on progression-free survival were compared indirectly using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling in Win BUGS, with IFN as a common comparator. RESULTS: Three studies were included. Median progression-free survival was significantly prolonged with both interventions (from approximately 5 months to between 8 and 11 months) compared with IFN. Overall survival was also prolonged, compared with IFN, although the published data are not fully mature. Indirect comparison suggests that sunitinib is superior to bevacizumab plus IFN in terms of progression-free survival (hazard ratios 0.796; 95% CI 0.63-1.0; P=0.0272). CONCLUSION: There is evidence to suggest that treatment with sunitinib and treatment with bevacizumab plus IFN has clinically relevant and statistically significant advantages over treatment with IFN alone in patients with metastatic RCC.

OBJECTIVES: to review the evidence on the clinical effects and associated treatment costs of surgical procedures and non-surgical devices for the management of non-apnoeic snoring. DATA SOURCES: Major electronic databases were searched for relevant studies published between 1980 and 2007. All treatment costs were estimated based on data from NHS reference costs, device manufacturers and clinical opinion. REVIEW METHODS: Studies were screened, data extracted and quality assessed according to standard methods. Results were broadly grouped according to the intervention and comparator when applicable, and further subgrouped according to the specific intervention type and study design. Results were combined using a narrative synthesis with relevant quantitative results tabulated. Differences between studies assessing the same intervention were explored narratively by examining differences in the intervention, study duration and study quality. RESULTS: the systematic review included 27 studies (three randomised controlled trials, two controlled clinical trials and 22 pre-post studies) reported in 30 publications assessing uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UP3) versus laser-assisted uvulopalatoplasty (LAUP), UP3 alone, LAUP alone, palatal stiffening techniques (Pillar implants and injection snoreplasty), radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of the soft palate or tongue base, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) devices and mandibular advancement splints (MAS). Studies were generally of a low methodological quality with small sample sizes. A total of 1191 patients was included. Both UP3 and LAUP reduced the number of snores per hour and produced a modest reduction in snoring loudness. UP3 was effective in reducing a number of subjectively reported snoring indices, but results on objective measures were equivocal. Limited evidence indicates that subjectively assessed snoring is improved after LAUP; no objective measures were assessed. RFA was associated with a reduction in partner-assessed snoring intensity, though evidence for an objective reduction in snoring sound levels was mixed. Pillar implants were moderately effective at reducing partner-rated snoring intensity, but had no effect on objective snoring indices. Use of CPAP reduced the number of snores per hour; no subjective measures were evaluated. Use of MAS improved objective snoring outcomes, including the maximal snoring sound volume, the mean snoring sound volume and the percentage of time spent in loud snoring; no subjective measures were evaluated. The cost for UP3 ranges from approximately 1230 pounds to approximately 1550 pounds. For LAUP the cost varies from 790 pounds to 2070 pounds depending on the number of stages of the procedure. The treatment costs associated with the use of Pillar implants range from 1110 pounds to 1160 pounds. The approximate annual treatment costs associated with the use of a CPAP machine and MAS are 220 pounds and 130 pounds respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlighted the paucity and poor quality of the evidence available on the effects of both surgical procedures and non-surgical devices for the management of primary snoring. Any conclusions to be drawn from the results are therefore somewhat tentative. There was no procedure that was clearly the least-cost option. Further research should focus on standardising methods of measuring outcomes and reporting, undertaking active controlled trials, and investigating the longer-term effects of treatments.

To review the evidence on the clinical effects and associated treatment costs of surgical procedures and non-surgical devices for the management of non-apnoeic snoring. Major electronic databases were searched for relevant studies published between 1980 and 2007. All treatment costs were estimated based on data from NHS reference costs, device manufacturers and clinical opinion. Studies were screened, data extracted and quality assessed according to standard methods. Results were broadly grouped according to the intervention and comparator when applicable, and further subgrouped according to the specific intervention type and study design. Results were combined using a narrative synthesis with relevant quantitative results tabulated. Differences between studies assessing the same intervention were explored narratively by examining differences in the intervention, study duration and study quality. The systematic review included 27 studies (three randomised controlled trials, two controlled clinical trials and 22 pre-post studies) reported in 30 publications assessing uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UP3) versus laser-assisted uvulopalatoplasty (LAUP), UP3 alone, LAUP alone, palatal stiffening techniques (Pillar implants and injection snoreplasty), radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of the soft palate or tongue base, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) devices and mandibular advancement splints (MAS). Studies were generally of a low methodological quality with small sample sizes. A total of 1191 patients was included. Both UP3 and LAUP reduced the number of snores per hour and produced a modest reduction in snoring loudness. UP3 was effective in reducing a number of subjectively reported snoring indices, but results on objective measures were equivocal. Limited evidence indicates that subjectively assessed snoring is improved after LAUP; no objective measures were assessed. RFA was associated with a reduction in partner-assessed snoring intensity, though evidence for an objective reduction in snoring sound levels was mixed. Pillar implants were moderately effective at reducing partner-rated snoring intensity, but had no effect on objective snoring indices. Use of CPAP reduced the number of snores per hour; no subjective measures were evaluated. Use of MAS improved objective snoring outcomes, including the maximal snoring sound volume, the mean snoring sound volume and the percentage of time spent in loud snoring; no subjective measures were evaluated. The cost for UP3 ranges from approximately 1230 pounds to approximately 1550 pounds. For LAUP the cost varies from 790 pounds to 2070 pounds depending on the number of stages of the procedure. The treatment costs associated with the use of Pillar implants range from 1110 pounds to 1160 pounds. The approximate annual treatment costs associated with the use of a CPAP machine and MAS are 220 pounds and 130 pounds respectively. This study highlighted the paucity and poor quality of the evidence available on the effects of both surgical procedures and non-surgical devices for the management of primary snoring. Any conclusions to be drawn from the results are therefore somewhat tentative. There was no procedure that was clearly the least-cost option. Further research should focus on standardising methods of measuring outcomes and reporting, undertaking active controlled trials, and investigating the longer-term effects of treatments.

Objectives: to investigate whether it is clinically effective and cost-effective to provide (i) a unilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people (using or not using hearing aids), and (ii) a bilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people with a single cochlear implant (unilateral or unilateral plus hearing aid). Data sources: Main electronic databases [MEDLINE; EMBASE; Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; CENTRAL; NHS EED; DARE; HTA (NHS-CRD); EconLit; National Research Register; and ClinicalTrials. gov] searched in October 2006, updated July 2007. Review methods: a systematic review of the literature was undertaken according to standard methods. A state-transition (Markov) model of the main care pathways deaf people might follow and the main complications and device failures was developed. Results: the clinical effectiveness review included 33 papers, of which only two were RCTs. They used 62 different outcome measures and overall were of moderate to poor quality. All studies in children comparing one cochlear implant with non-technological support or an acoustic hearing aid reported gains on all outcome measures, some demonstrating greater gain from earlier implantation. The strongest evidence for an advantage from bilateral over unilateral implantation was for understanding speech in noisy conditions (mean improvement 13.2%, p < 0.0001); those receiving their second implant earlier made greater gains. Comparison of bilateral with unilateral cochlear implants plus an acoustic hearing aid was compromised by small sample sizes and poor reporting, but benefits were seen with bilateral implants. Cochlear implants improved children's quality of life, and those who were implanted before attending school were more likely to do well academically and attend mainstream education than those implanted later. In adults, there was a greater benefit from cochlear implants than from nontechnological support in terms of speech perception. Increased age at implantation may reduce effectiveness and there is a negative correlation between duration of deafness and effectiveness. Speech perception measures all showed benefits for cochlear implants over acoustic hearing aids [e.g. mean increase in score of 37 points in noisy conditions (p < 0.001) with BKB sentences]; however, prelingually deafened adults benefited less than those postlingually deafened (mean change scores 20% versus 62%). For unilateral versus bilateral implantation, benefits in speech perception were significant in noisy conditions on all measures [e.g. 76% for HINT sentences (p < 0.0001)]. Quality of life measured with generic and disease-specific instruments or by interview mostly showed significant gains or positive trends from using cochlear implants. The Markov model base-case analysis estimated that, for prelingually profoundly deaf children, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for unilateral implantation compared with no implantation was £13,413 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Assuming the utility gain for bilateral implantation is the same for adults and children, the ICERs for simultaneous and sequential bilateral implantation versus unilateral implantation were £40,410 and £54,098 per QALY respectively. For postlingually sensorineurally profoundly deaf adults, the corresponding ICERs were £14,163, £49,559 and £60,301 per QALY respectively. Probabilistic threshold analyses suggest that unilateral implants are highly likely to be cost-effective for adults and children at willingness to pay thresholds of £20,000 or £30,000 per QALY. There are likely to be overall additional benefits from bilateral implantation, enabling children and adults to hold conversations more easily in social situations. Conclusions: Unilateral cochlear implantation is safe and effective for adults and children and likely to be cost-effective in profoundly deaf adults and profoundly and prelingually deaf children. However, decisions on the cost-effectiveness of bilateral cochlear implants should take into account the high degree of uncertainty within the model regarding the probable utility gain. © 2009 Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVES: to investigate whether it is clinically effective and cost-effective to provide (i) a unilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people (using or not using hearing aids), and (ii) a bilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people with a single cochlear implant (unilateral or unilateral plus hearing aid). DATA SOURCES: Main electronic databases [MEDLINE; EMBASE; Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; CENTRAL; NHS EED; DARE; HTA (NHS-CRD); EconLit; National Research Register; and ClinicalTrials.gov] searched in October 2006, updated July 2007. REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review of the literature was undertaken according to standard methods. A state-transition (Markov) model of the main care pathways deaf people might follow and the main complications and device failures was developed. RESULTS: the clinical effectiveness review included 33 papers, of which only two were RCTs. They used 62 different outcome measures and overall were of moderate to poor quality. All studies in children comparing one cochlear implant with non-technological support or an acoustic hearing aid reported gains on all outcome measures, some demonstrating greater gain from earlier implantation. The strongest evidence for an advantage from bilateral over unilateral implantation was for understanding speech in noisy conditions (mean improvement 13.2%, p < 0.0001); those receiving their second implant earlier made greater gains. Comparison of bilateral with unilateral cochlear implants plus an acoustic hearing aid was compromised by small sample sizes and poor reporting, but benefits were seen with bilateral implants. Cochlear implants improved children's quality of life, and those who were implanted before attending school were more likely to do well academically and attend mainstream education than those implanted later. In adults, there was a greater benefit from cochlear implants than from non-technological support in terms of speech perception. Increased age at implantation may reduce effectiveness and there is a negative correlation between duration of deafness and effectiveness. Speech perception measures all showed benefits for cochlear implants over acoustic hearing aids [e.g. mean increase in score of 37 points in noisy conditions (p < 0.001) with BKB sentences]; however, prelingually deafened adults benefited less than those postlingually deafened (mean change scores 20% versus 62%). For unilateral versus bilateral implantation, benefits in speech perception were significant in noisy conditions on all measures [e.g. 76% for HINT sentences (p < 0.0001)]. Quality of life measured with generic and disease-specific instruments or by interview mostly showed significant gains or positive trends from using cochlear implants. The Markov model base-case analysis estimated that, for prelingually profoundly deaf children, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for unilateral implantation compared with no implantation was 13,413 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Assuming the utility gain for bilateral implantation is the same for adults and children, the ICERs for simultaneous and sequential bilateral implantation versus unilateral implantation were 40,410 pounds and 54,098 pounds per QALY respectively. For postlingually sensorineurally profoundly deaf adults, the corresponding ICERs were 14,163 pounds, 49,559 pounds and 60,301 pounds per QALY respectively. Probabilistic threshold analyses suggest that unilateral implants are highly likely to be cost-effective for adults and children at willingness to pay thresholds of 20,000 pounds or 30,000 pounds per QALY. There are likely to be overall additional benefits from bilateral implantation, enabling children and adults to hold conversations more easily in social situations. CONCLUSIONS: Unilateral cochlear implantation is safe and effective for adults and children and likely to be cost-effective in profoundly deaf adults and profoundly and prelingually deaf children. However, decisions on the cost-effectiveness of bilateral cochlear implants should take into account the high degree of uncertainty within the model regarding the probable utility gain.

BACKGROUND: Precision is a recognised requirement of patient-reported outcome measures but no previous studies of the precision of methods for obtaining health state values from the general public, based on specific health state descriptions or vignettes, have been carried out. The methodological requirements of policy makers internationally is driving growth in the use of methods to obtain utilities from the general public to inform cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) analyses of health technologies being considered for adoption by health systems. METHODS: the precision of five comparisons of the outcomes of treatments, based on health state descriptions, was assessed against the results of clinical trials which showed a statistically and clinically significant improvement using an internet panel of members of the UK general public. Health states were developed to depict the baseline and post-treatment states from these exemplar clinical trials. Preferences for health states were obtained using bottom-up titrated standard gamble over the internet, and differences between summary health state values corresponding to the treatment and comparator groups within each exemplar study were compared. Results are considered in the context of various estimates for the minimally important difference in utility values. RESULTS: Participation among members of the internet panel in the five exemplars ranged from 27 to 59. In four of the five exemplars, the utility-based estimates of treatment benefit showed significant differences between groups and were greater than an assumed minimally important difference of 0.1. Mean utility differences between groups were: 0.23 (computerised cognitive behavioural therapy for depression, P < 0.001), 0.11 (hip resurfacing for hip osteoarthritis, P < 0.001), 0.0005 (cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia, P = 0.98), 0.15 (pulmonary rehabilitation for COPD, P < 0.001) and 0.11 (infliximab for Crohn's disease, P < 0.001). The confidence intervals around the estimates of utility-based treatment effect in three of the five examples did not exclude the possibility of a difference smaller than a minimally important difference of 0.1. Recent empirical evidence suggests a lower minimally important difference (0.03) may be more appropriate, in which case our results provide further reassurance of preservation of precision in health state description and valuation. CONCLUSIONS: the precision of estimates of treatment effects based on preference data obtained from disease-specific measurements in clinically significant studies of health technologies was acceptable using an internet-based panel of members of the general public and the standard gamble. Definition of the minimally important difference in utility estimates is required to adequately assess precision and should be the subject of further research.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the use of information graphics to display the outputs of health technology assessment (HTA) in the United Kingdom and proposes a more structured approach founded in an analysis of the decision-making requirements of the key stakeholders. METHODS: a scoping review of HTA reports was conducted to investigate current practice in the use of information graphics in HTA literature. A classification framework using dimensions of report section, graphical type, and originating research center was devised and used for a full content analysis of the graphical figures in the fifty most recent reports produced for the UK National Health Service's HTA process. RESULTS: Our survey shows that graphical tools are used extensively in HTA reports although less frequently than tables. Use of information graphics varies widely between different report sections and tends to follow conventional lines with little evidence of variance from established practice. The largest variance was found between the quantities of graphics used by different research centers responsible for authoring the reports. CONCLUSIONS: HTA makes extensive use of graphics; however, there is little evidence of a systematic or standardized approach, or of much innovation. Significant potential exists to explore the application of information graphics in this field, but there are many research challenges. A contextually based, structured approach to the design of effective information graphics in HTA is proposed as a basis both to investigate the application of existing graphical tools in HTA, and to explore the considerable scope for innovation.

OBJECTIVE: to describe the development of a multidimensional conceptual framework capable of drawing out the implications for policy and practice of what is known about public involvement in research agenda setting. BACKGROUND: Public involvement in research is growing in western and developing countries. There is a need to learn from collective experience and a diverse literature of research, policy documents and reflective reports. METHODS: Systematic searches of research literature, policy and lay networks identified reports of public involvement in research agenda setting. Framework analysis, previously described for primary research, was used to develop the framework, which was then applied to reports of public involvement in order to analyse and compare these. FINDINGS: the conceptual framework takes into account the people involved; the people initiating the involvement; the degree of public involvement; the forum for exchange; and methods used for decision making. It also considers context (in terms of the research focus and the historical, geographical or institutional setting), and theoretical basis. CONCLUSIONS: the framework facilitates learning across diverse experiences, whether reported in policy documents, reflections or formal research, to generate a policy- and practice-relevant overview. A further advantage is that it identifies gaps in the literature which need to be filled in order to inform future research about public involvement.

BACKGROUND: High-grade gliomas are aggressive brain tumours that are extremely challenging to treat effectively. The intracranial implantation of carmustine wafers (BCNU-W), which delivers chemotherapy directly to the affected area, may prolong survival in this population. However, no attention has yet been paid to the economic implications of BCNU-W in this setting. OBJECTIVE: to investigate the cost effectiveness of BCNU-W as an adjunct to surgery followed by radiotherapy, compared with surgery plus radiotherapy alone. Newly diagnosed, operable grade III and IV gliomas in a population with a mean age of 55 years were considered. METHODS: a Markov cost-utility model was developed in Microsoft Excel, adopting a UK NHS perspective. Transition probabilities and cost data (year 2004 values) were obtained from published literature or expert opinion. The model incorporated utility values, obtained from members of the public, reflecting the quality of life associated with high-grade glioma. The effects of uncertainty were explored through extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Surgery with the implantation of BCNU-W followed by radiotherapy costs pound sterling 54 500 per additional QALY gained when compared with surgery plus radiotherapy alone. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows a

BACKGROUND: Standard treatment for high grade glioma (HGG) usually entails biopsy or surgical resection where possible followed by radiotherapy. Systemic chemotherapy is usually only given in selected cases and its use is often limited by side effects. Implanting wafers impregnated with chemotherapy agents into the resection cavity represents a novel means of delivering drugs to the central nervous system (CNS) with fewer side effects. It is not clear how effective this modality is or whether it should be recommended as part of standard care for HGG. OBJECTIVES: to assess whether chemotherapeutic wafers have any advantage over conventional therapy for HGG. SEARCH STRATEGY: the following databases were searched: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Issue 2, 2007, MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCIENCE CITATION INDEX, Physician Data Query and the meta-Register of Controlled Trials. Reference lists of all identified studies were searched. The Journal of Neuro-Oncology was hand searched from 1999 to 2007, including all conference abstracts. Neuro-oncologists were contacted regarding ongoing and unpublished trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: Patients included those of all ages with a presumed diagnosis of malignant glioma from clinical examination and radiology. Interventions included insertion of chemotherapeutic wafers to the resection cavity at either primary surgery or for recurrent disease. Included studies had to be randomised controlled trials (RCTs). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Quality assessment and data extraction were undertaken by two review authors. Outcome measures included survival, time to progression, quality of life (QOL) and adverse events. MAIN RESULTS: in primary disease two RCTs assessing the effect of carmustine impregnated wafers (Gliadel(R)) and enrolling a total of 272 participants were identified. Survival was increased (hazard ratio (HR) 0.65 confidence interval (CI) 0.48 to 0.86 p = 0.003). In recurrent disease a single RCT was included assessing the effect of Gliadel(R) and enrolling 222 participants. It did not demonstrate a significant survival increase (HR 0.83 CI 0.62 to 1.10 p = 0.2). There was no suitable data for time to progression or QOL. Adverse events were not more common in either arm, and were presented in a descriptive fashion. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Gliadel(R) results in a prolongation of survival without an increased incidence of adverse events when used as primary therapy. There is no evidence of enhanced progression free survival (PFS) or QOL. In recurrent disease, Gliadel(R) does not appear to confer any added benefit. These findings are based on the results of three RCTs with approximately 500 patients in total.

OBJECTIVE: to assess the cost-effectiveness of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. DESIGN: Cost-utility model. SETTING: UK NHS. PATIENTS: One thousand 55-year-old men with Barrett's oesophagus. INTERVENTION: Surveillance programme: endoscopy and biopsy at 3 yearly intervals for non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus; low-grade dysplasia yearly; high grade-dysplasia 3 monthly. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, expected value of perfect information. RESULTS: Non-surveillance dominated surveillance (i.e. cost less and conferred more benefit), but there was substantial uncertainty around many of the model inputs. Probabilistic analyses showed that non-surveillance cost less and conferred more benefit in 75% of model runs. Surveillance was cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay in 11% of runs. For people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales, a value of pound6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. CONCLUSIONS: the PenTAG cost-utility model suggests that surveillance programmes do more harm than good.

Using a decision-analytic model, we evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals with cirrhosis. Separate cohorts with cirrhosis due to alcoholic liver disease, hepatitis B and hepatitis C were simulated. Results were also combined to approximate a mixed aetiology population. Comparisons were made between a variety of surveillance algorithms using alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) assay and/or ultrasound at 6- and 12-monthly intervals. Parameter estimates were obtained from comprehensive literature reviews. Uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In the mixed aetiology cohort, 6-monthly AFP+ultrasound was predicted to be the most effective strategy. The model estimates that, compared with no surveillance, this strategy may triple the number of people with operable tumours at diagnosis and almost halve the number of people who die from HCC. The cheapest strategy employed triage with annual AFP (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER): 20,700 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds per QALY the most cost-effective strategy used triage with 6-monthly AFP (ICER: 27,600 pounds per QALY gained). The addition of ultrasound to this strategy increased the ICER to 60,100 pounds per QALY gained. Surveillance appears most cost-effective in individuals with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis, potentially due to younger age at diagnosis of cirrhosis. Our results suggest that, in a UK NHS context, surveillance of individuals with cirrhosis for HCC should be considered effective and cost-effective. The economic efficiency of different surveillance strategies is predicted to vary markedly according to cirrhosis aetiology.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) alone and ICS used in combination with a long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA) in the treatment of chronic asthma in children aged under 12 years. DATA SOURCES: Major electronic bibliographic databases, e.g. MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched up to February/March 2006 (and updated again in October 2006). REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review of clinical and cost-effectiveness studies and economic analyses were carried out. A flexible framework was used to allow different types of economic analyses as appropriate, with either a cost comparison or cost-consequence comparison conducted. RESULTS: of 5175 records identified through systematic literature searching, 34 records describing 25 studies were included (16 were fully published randomised controlled trials, six were systematic reviews, and three were post-2004 conference abstracts). The most frequently reported relevant outcomes in the 16 RCTs were peak expiratory flow rate (13 trials), FEV1 (13 trials), symptoms (13 trials), adverse events or exacerbations (13 trials), use of rescue medication (12 trials), markers of adrenal function (e.g. blood or urine cortisol concentrations) (13 trials), height and/or growth rate (seven trials) and markers of bone metabolism (two trials). In the trials that compared low-dose ICS versus ICS and high-dose ICS versus ICS, no consistent significant differences or patterns in differential treatment effect among the outcomes were evident. Where differences were statistically significant at high doses, such as for lung function and growth, they favoured formoterol fumarate (FF), but this was generally in studies that did not compare the ICS at the accepted clinically equivalent doses. Differences between the drugs in impact on adrenal suppression were only significant in two studies. At doses of 200, 400 and 800 microg/day, beclometasone dipropionate (BDP) appears to be the current cheapest ICS product both with the inclusion and exclusion of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-propelled products. In the trials comparing ICS at a higher dose with ICS and LABA in combination, most outcomes favoured the combined inhaler. Only the combination inhaler, Seretide Evohaler, is slightly cheaper than the weighted mean cost of all types of ICS at increased dose except BDP 400 microg/day (including CFC-propelled products). Both the combination inhalers, Seretide Accuhaler and Symbicort Turbohaler, are more expensive than the weighted mean cost for all types of ICS at a two-fold increased dose. Compared with the lowest cost preparation for each ICS drug, all the combination inhalers are always more expensive than the ICS products at increased dose. CONCLUSIONS: the limited evidence available indicates that there are no consistent significant differences in effectiveness between the three ICS licensed for use in children at either low or high dose. BDP CFC-propelled products are often the cheapest ICS currently available at both low and high dose, and may remain so even when CFC-propelled products are excluded. Exclusion of CFC-propelled products increases the mean annual cost of all budesonide (BUD) and BDP, while the overall cost differences between the comparators diminish. There is very limited evidence available for the efficacy and safety of ICS and LABAs in children. From this limited evidence, there appear to be no significant clinical differences in effects between the use of a combination inhaler versus the same drugs in separate inhalers. There is a lack of evidence comparing ICS at a higher dose with ICS and LABA in combination and comparing the combination products with each other. In the absence of any evidence concerning the effectiveness of ICS at higher dose with ICS and LABA, a cost-consequence analysis gives mixed results. There are potential cost savings with the use of combination inhalers compared to separate inhalers. At present prices, the BUD/FF combination is more expensive than those containing FP/SAL, but it is not known whether there are clinically significant differences between them. A scoping review is required to assess the requirements for additional primary research on the clinical effectiveness of treatment for asthma in children under 5 years old. Such a review could also usefully include all treatment options, pharmacological and non-pharmacological, for asthma. A direct head-to-head trial that compares the two combination therapies of FP/SAL and BUD/FF is warranted, and it is important to assess whether the addition of a LABA to a lower dose of ICS could potentially be as effective as an increased dose of ICS alone, but also be steroid sparing. There is also a need for the long-term adverse events associated with ICS use to be assessed systematically. Future trials of treatment for chronic asthma in children should aim to standardise further the way in which outcome measures are defined. There should be a greater focus on patient-centred outcomes to provide a more meaningful estimation of the impact of treatment on asthma control. Methods of reporting also require standardisation.

BACKGROUND: High grade glioma (HGG) is an aggressive form of brain tumour the treatment of which usually entails biopsy or resection where possible followed by radiotherapy. Temozolomide is a novel oral chemotherapeutic drug that penetrates into the brain and has a low incidence of adverse effects. OBJECTIVES: to assess whether temozolomide holds any advantage over conventional therapy for HGG in either primary or recurrent disease settings. SEARCH STRATEGY: the following databases were searched: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) Issue 2, 2007. Medline, EMBASE, Science Citation Index, Physician Data Query and the Meta-Register of Controlled Trials. Reference lists of identified studies were searched. The Journal of Neuro-Oncology was hand searched from 1999 to 2007 including conference abstracts. Neuro-oncologists were contacted regarding ongoing and unpublished trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Interventions included the use of temozolomide during primary therapy or for recurrent disease. Patients included those of all ages with a proven pathological diagnosis of HGG. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Quality assessment and data extraction were undertaken by two review authors. Outcome measures included survival, time to progression, quality of life (QOL) and adverse events. MAIN RESULTS: in primary disease two RCTs were identified, enrolling a total of 703 patients, that investigated concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide in Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM). Temozolomide increased survival (hazard ratio (HR) 0.84, confidence interval (CI) 0.50 to 0.68, p < 0.001) and an increase in time to progression (HR 0.52 CI 0.42 to 0.64 p < 0.0001). This was without having a statistically significant negative effect on QOL and with a low incidence of early adverse events. Grade 3/4 haematological toxicity was found in 5 to14%. The long term effects of temozolomide are still to be assessed. In recurrent GBM a single trial enrolling 225 patients in total found that temozolomide did not increase overall survival but it did increase time to progression (HR 0.68 CI 0.51 to 0.90 p0.008). Severe adverse events were low in this setting. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Temozolomide is an effective therapy in GBM for prolonging survival and delaying progression as part of primary therapy without impacting on QoL and with a low incidence of early adverse events. The frequency and severity of late adverse events is unknown. In recurrent GBM it improves time to progression but not overall survival. These findings are from three good quality but non-blinded RCTs of over 900 patients in total.

AIM: This paper is a report of a systematic review and meta-ethnography of the experience of heavy menstrual bleeding. BACKGROUND: Heavy menstrual bleeding is common. Not all women seeking help have heavy menstrual bleeding as measured objectively and, conversely, some who do have this problem do not seek help. DATA SOURCES: Seven electronic databases were searched in 2004 and updated in 2008, and supplemented with hand-searching. METHOD: We identified four papers describing qualitative research among women with heavy menstrual bleeding. Key themes and concepts were extracted and synthesised using meta-ethnography, the key process of which is translation, identifying similar or contradictory findings in primary research. In the updated search three papers were identified. FINDINGS: Three papers were largely descriptive. These provided support for the fourth paper's conceptual framework of a lay model of heavy menstrual bleeding which shows little overlap with the traditional clinical definition. Details of physical, practical and emotional elements of this model were identified. A matrix of uncertainties were identified suggesting reasons why women may or may not seek medical help for heavy menstrual bleeding. Women and healthcare professionals may conspire to privilege blood loss over other symptoms and the disease model of heavy menstrual bleeding is little help to either. Two papers from the updated search were also largely descriptive. The third interpreted key elements of the lay model as relating to the need for concealment demanded by 'menstrual etiquette'. CONCLUSION: a lay model of heavy menstrual bleeding is proposed, detailing key physical, social and emotional impacts that women find problematic.

BACKGROUND: Key to delivering UK policies on clinical governance, evidence-based practice and value for money is Health Technology Assessment (HTA). Despite the provision of HTAs through the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), local health organizations still undertake HTA and make decisions based on them. In some regions, capacity is provided by centralized arrangements, but in others provision is ad hoc. This rapid needs assessment evaluates the provision of HTA in the south-west peninsula, and its scope, content and quality. METHODS: We used semi-structured interviews and documentary analysis to assess the need for HTA. RESULTS: HTAs are most commonly used by drug and therapeutics committees and joint formulary committees. The scope of technologies assessed was predominantly drugs. The quality of literature review in HTAs was variable and virtually none considered value for money. Informants felt there was insufficient provision of local HTAs. Local focus and clinical engagement were seen as key to the implementation of appraisal decisions, but this was threatened by weak links with commissioning and processes to prioritize decisions across primary care trusts. CONCLUSIONS: the quality of some HTAs poses a risk to clinical and corporate governance.

There are few clearly described utility studies in advanced ovarian cancer, despite the public health importance of condition and the need for preference based measures of quality of life in economic evaluation of the new treatments. We used data clustering techniques to develop health state descriptions based on data from 66 women who completed the EORTC QLQ-C30 over a six month period while receiving chemotherapy for ovarian cancer. The health state descriptions were presented to a group of members of the general public (n=38), via the internet, and preferences elicited using the standard gamble technique. Mean utility values ranged from 0.685 to 0.977, although the range of individual preferences was wider, including values as low as 0.125. This is the first study to use data clustering methods combined with internet preference elicitation in oncology. The resulting health state model is parsimonious, data driven, and incorporates quality of life items tailored to cancer. The estimates therefore meet the needs of policy makers while reflecting more accurately the experience of disease than those based on generic preference measures.

Objectives: to evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of surveillance of patients with cirrhosis [alcoholic liver disease (ALD)-, hepatitis B (HBV)- and C virus (HCV)-related], using periodic serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) testing and/or liver ultrasound examination, to detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), followed by treatment with liver transplantation or resection, where appropriate. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to March 2006. Review methods: a systematic review was carried out using standard methodological guidelines. A computerised decision-analytic model was then developed to compare various surveillance strategies. Results: No studies were identified that met the criteria of the systematic review. Based on the assumptions used in the model, the most effective surveillance strategy uses a combination of AFP testing and ultrasound at 6-monthly intervals. Compared with no surveillance, this strategy is estimated to more than triple the number of people with operable HCC tumours at time of diagnosis, and almost halves the number of deaths from HCC. On all effectiveness measures and at both testing frequencies, AFP- and ultrasound-led surveillance strategies are very similar. This may be because test sensitivity was varied according to tumour size, which means that AFP testing is capable of identifying many more small tumours than ultrasound. The best available evidence suggests that AFP tests will detect approximately six times as many small tumours as ultrasound. Increasing the frequency of either test to 6-monthly intervals is more effective than performing combined testing on an annual basis. The undiscounted lifetime cost of the surveillance strategies, including all care and treatment costs, ranges from £40,300 (annual AFP triage) to £42,900 (6-monthly AFP and ultrasound). The equivalent discounted costs are £28,400 and £30,400. Only a small proportion of these total costs results from the cost of the screening tests. However, screening test costs, and the cost of liver transplants and caring for people post-transplant, accounted for most of the incremental cost differences between alternative surveillance strategies. The results suggest that different surveillance strategies may provide the best value for money in patient groups of different cirrhosis aetiologies. The surveillance of people with HBV-related cirrhosis for HCC provides the best value for money, while surveillance in people with ALD-related cirrhosis provides the poorest value for money. In people with HBV-related cirrhosis, at an assumed maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of £30,000, both the deterministic and probabilistic cost-utility analyses suggest the optimal surveillance strategy would be 6-monthly surveillance with the combination of AFP testing and ultrasound. In contrast, for those with ALD-related cirrhosis, annual screening with AFP as a triage test is the only surveillance strategy that is likely to be considered cost-effective at this WTP. The probabilistic analysis implies that the estimated benefits of a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy will only be worth the cost in those with ALD when society's WTP for a QALY exceeds around £40,000. For people with HCV-related cirrhosis, the model suggests that the most cost-effective surveillance strategy at a WTP threshold of £30,000/ QALY would be surveillance with a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy. Conclusions: in a mixed-aetiology cohort, the most effective surveillance strategy is to screen each patient with AFP assay and ultrasound imaging on a 6-monthly basis. However, when costs are taken into account it is doubtful whether ultrasound should be routinely offered to those with blood AFP of less than 20 ng/ml, unless policy-makers are prepared to pay over £60,000 per QALY for the benefits achieved. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for HCC varies considerably depending on the aetiology of cirrhosis; it is much more likely to be cost-effective in those with HBV-related cirrhosis, and much less likely to be cost-effective in those with ALD-related cirrhosis. Further development of the model would help to enable refinement of an optimal screening strategy. Research into the use of contrast-enhanced ultrasound technology for HCC detection would also be valuable, as would research into the epidemiology and natural history of ALD-related cirrhosis. Studies are also needed to investigate the influence of cirrhosis aetiology on tumour AFP expression. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

To evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of surveillance of patients with cirrhosis [alcoholic liver disease (ALD)-, hepatitis B (HBV)- and C virus (HCV)-related], using periodic serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) testing and/or liver ultrasound examination, to detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), followed by treatment with liver transplantation or resection, where appropriate. Electronic databases were searched up to March 2006. A systematic review was carried out using standard methodological guidelines. A computerised decision-analytic model was then developed to compare various surveillance strategies. No studies were identified that met the criteria of the systematic review. Based on the assumptions used in the model, the most effective surveillance strategy uses a combination of AFP testing and ultrasound at 6-monthly intervals. Compared with no surveillance, this strategy is estimated to more than triple the number of people with operable HCC tumours at time of diagnosis, and almost halves the number of deaths from HCC. On all effectiveness measures and at both testing frequencies, AFP- and ultrasound-led surveillance strategies are very similar. This may be because test sensitivity was varied according to tumour size, which means that AFP testing is capable of identifying many more small tumours than ultrasound. The best available evidence suggests that AFP tests will detect approximately six times as many small tumours as ultrasound. Increasing the frequency of either test to 6-monthly intervals is more effective than performing combined testing on an annual basis. The undiscounted lifetime cost of the surveillance strategies, including all care and treatment costs, ranges from 40,300 pounds (annual AFP triage) to 42,900 pounds (6-monthly AFP and ultrasound). The equivalent discounted costs are 28,400 pounds and 30,400 pounds. Only a small proportion of these total costs results from the cost of the screening tests. However, screening test costs, and the cost of liver transplants and caring for people post-transplant, accounted for most of the incremental cost differences between alternative surveillance strategies. The results suggest that different surveillance strategies may provide the best value for money in patient groups of different cirrhosis aetiologies. The surveillance of people with HBV-related cirrhosis for HCC provides the best value for money, while surveillance in people with ALD-related cirrhosis provides the poorest value for money. In people with HBV-related cirrhosis, at an assumed maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 30,000 pounds, both the deterministic and probabilistic cost-utility analyses suggest the optimal surveillance strategy would be 6-monthly surveillance with the combination of AFP testing and ultrasound. In contrast, for those with ALD-related cirrhosis, annual screening with AFP as a triage test is the only surveillance strategy that is likely to be considered cost-effective at this WTP. The probabilistic analysis implies that the estimated benefits of a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy will only be worth the cost in those with ALD when society's WTP for a QALY exceeds around 40,000 pounds. For people with HCV-related cirrhosis, the model suggests that the most cost-effective surveillance strategy at a WTP threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY would be surveillance with a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy. In a mixed-aetiology cohort, the most effective surveillance strategy is to screen each patient with AFP assay and ultrasound imaging on a 6-monthly basis. However, when costs are taken into account it is doubtful whether ultrasound should be routinely offered to those with blood AFP of less than 20 ng/ml, unless policy-makers are prepared to pay over 60,000 pounds per QALY for the benefits achieved. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for HCC varies considerably depending on the aetiology of cirrhosis; it is much more likely to be cost-effective in those with HBV-related cirrhosis, and much less likely to be cost-effective in those with ALD-related cirrhosis. Further development of the model would help to enable refinement of an optimal screening strategy. Research into the use of contrast-enhanced ultrasound technology for HCC detection would also be valuable, as would research into the epidemiology and natural history of ALD-related cirrhosis. Studies are also needed to investigate the influence of cirrhosis aetiology on tumour AFP expression.

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) for people with heart failure and evidence of dyssynchrony by comparing cardiac resynchronisation therapy devices, CRT-P and CRT with defibrillation (CRT-D), each with optimal pharmaceutical therapy (OPT), and with each other. Electronic databases were searched up to June 2006. Manufacturer submissions to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) were also searched for additional evidence. Relevant data from selected studies were extracted, narrative reviews were undertaken and meta-analyses of the clinical trial data were conducted. A Markov model was developed. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analyses, threshold analyses, probabilistic sensitivity analyses and value of information analyses were carried out. Five randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, recruiting 3434 participants. Quality was good to moderate. Meta-analyses showed that both CRT-P and CRT-D devices significantly reduced the mortality and level of heart failure hospitalisations and they improved health-related quality of life in people with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III and IV heart failure and evidence of dyssynchrony (QRS interval. > 120 ms) who were also receiving OPT. A single direct comparison indicated that the effects of CRT-P and CRT-D were similar, with the exception of an additional reduction in sudden cardiac death (SCD) associated with CRT-D. On average, implanting a CRT device in 13 people would result in the saving of one additional life over a 3-year period compared with OPT. The NHS device and procedure cost of implanting a new CRT-P system (pulse generator unit and required leads) was estimated to be 5074 British pounds and that of a CRT-D system 17,266 British pounds. The discounted lifetime costs of OPT, CRT-P and CRT-D were estimated as 9375 British pounds, 20,804 British pounds and 32,689 British pounds, respectively. The industry submissions to NICE contained four cost-effectiveness analyses, of which two were more appropriate as reference cases. One used a discrete event simulation model that gave estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of CRT-P vs OPT of 15,645 British pounds per QALY. The other analysis was based on the results of the COMPANION trial and estimated an ICER of 2818 British pounds per QALY gained by CRT-P vs OPT and a cost per QALY gained of 22,384 British pounds for CRT-D vs OPT. Compared with OPT, the Markov model base case analysis estimated that CRT-P conferred an additional 0.70 QALYs for an additional 11,630 British pounds per person, giving an estimated ICER of 16,735 British pounds per QALY gained for a mixed age cohort (range 14,630-20,333 British pounds). CRT-D vs CRT-P conferred an additional 0.29 QALYs for an additional 11,689 British pounds per person, giving an ICER of 40,160 British pounds per QALY for a mixed age cohort (range 26,645-59,391 British pounds). The authors' ICERs are higher than those from the industry-submitted analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on 1000 simulated trials showed that, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 30,000 British pounds per QALY, in CRT-P versus OPT, CRT-P was likely to be cost-effective in 91.3% of simulations and that CRT-P was negatively dominated in 0.4% of simulations. It also showed that in CRT-P versus CRT-D, CRT-D was likely to be cost-effective in 26.3% of simulations and that CRT-P dominated CRT-D in 7.8% of simulations. The relative risk for SCD when CRT-D is compared with OPT is 0.44 in the base case. This treatment becomes cost-ineffective at a WTP threshold of 30,000 British pounds when this value is greater than 0.65. When both CRT-P and CRT-D were considered as competing technologies with each other and OPT (three-way probabilistic analysis), and at the same WTP, there was a 68% probability that CRT-P provided the highest expected net benefit. The WTP threshold would need to be above 40,000 British pounds before CRT-D provided the highest expected net benefit. The study found that CRT-P and CRT-D devices reduce mortality and hospitalisations due to heart failure, improve quality of life and reduce SCD in people with heart failure NYHA classes III and IV, and evidence of dyssynchrony. When measured using a lifetime time horizon and compared with optimal medical therapy, the devices are estimated to be cost-effective at a WTP threshold of 30,000 British pounds per QALY; CRT-P is cost-effective at a WTP threshold of 20,000 British pounds per QALY. When the cost and effectiveness of all three treatment strategies are compared, the estimated net benefit from CRT-D is less than with the other two strategies, until the WTP threshold exceeds 40,160 British pounds/QALY. Further research is needed into the identification of those patients unlikely to benefit from this therapy, the appropriate use of CRT-D devices, the differences in mortality and heart failure hospitalisation for NYHA classes I and II, as well as the long-term implications of using this therapy.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) for people with heart failure and evidence of dyssynchrony by comparing cardiac resynchronisation therapy devices, CRT-P and CRT with defibrillation (CRT-D), each with optimal pharmaceutical therapy (OPT), and with each other. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched up to June 2006. Manufacturer submissions to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) were also searched for additional evidence. REVIEW METHODS: Relevant data from selected studies were extracted, narrative reviews were undertaken and meta-analyses of the clinical trial data were conducted. A Markov model was developed. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analyses, threshold analyses, probabilistic sensitivity analyses and value of information analyses were carried out. RESULTS: Five randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, recruiting 3434 participants. Quality was good to moderate. Meta-analyses showed that both CRT-P and CRT-D devices significantly reduced the mortality and level of heart failure hospitalisations and they improved health-related quality of life in people with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III and IV heart failure and evidence of dyssynchrony (QRS interval >120 ms) who were also receiving OPT. A single direct comparison indicated that the effects of CRT-P and CRT-D were similar, with the exception of an additional reduction in sudden cardiac death (SCD) associated with CRT-D. On average, implanting a CRT device in 13 people would result in the saving of one additional life over a 3-year period compared with OPT. The NHS device and procedure cost of implanting a new CRT-P system (pulse generator unit and required leads) was estimated to be 5074 British pounds and that of a CRT-D system 17,266 British pounds. The discounted lifetime costs of OPT, CRT-P and CRT-D were estimated as 9375 British pounds, 20,804 British pounds and 32,689 British pounds, respectively. The industry submissions to NICE contained four cost-effectiveness analyses, of which two were more appropriate as reference cases. One used a discrete event simulation model that gave estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of CRT-P vs OPT of 15,645 British pounds per QALY. The other analysis was based on the results of the COMPANION trial and estimated an ICER of 2818 British pounds per QALY gained by CRT-P vs OPT and a cost per QALY gained of 22,384 British pounds for CRT-D vs OPT. Compared with OPT, the Markov model base case analysis estimated that CRT-P conferred an additional 0.70 QALYs for an additional 11,630 British pounds per person, giving an estimated ICER of 16,735 British pounds per QALY gained for a mixed age cohort (range 14,630-20,333 British pounds). CRT-D vs CRT-P conferred an additional 0.29 QALYs for an additional 11,689 British pounds per person, giving an ICER of 40,160 British pounds per QALY for a mixed age cohort (range 26,645-59,391 British pounds). The authors' ICERs are higher than those from the industry-submitted analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on 1000 simulated trials showed that, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 30,000 British pounds per QALY, in CRT-P versus OPT, CRT-P was likely to be cost-effective in 91.3% of simulations and that CRT-P was negatively dominated in 0.4% of simulations. It also showed that in CRT-P versus CRT-D, CRT-D was likely to be cost-effective in 26.3% of simulations and that CRT-P dominated CRT-D in 7.8% of simulations. The relative risk for SCD when CRT-D is compared with OPT is 0.44 in the base case. This treatment becomes cost-ineffective at a WTP threshold of 30,000 British pounds when this value is greater than 0.65. When both CRT-P and CRT-D were considered as competing technologies with each other and OPT (three-way probabilistic analysis), and at the same WTP, there was a 68% probability that CRT-P provided the highest expected net benefit. The WTP threshold would need to be above 40,000 British pounds before CRT-D provided the highest expected net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: the study found that CRT-P and CRT-D devices reduce mortality and hospitalisations due to heart failure, improve quality of life and reduce SCD in people with heart failure NYHA classes III and IV, and evidence of dyssynchrony. When measured using a lifetime time horizon and compared with optimal medical therapy, the devices are estimated to be cost-effective at a WTP threshold of 30,000 British pounds per QALY; CRT-P is cost-effective at a WTP threshold of 20,000 British pounds per QALY. When the cost and effectiveness of all three treatment strategies are compared, the estimated net benefit from CRT-D is less than with the other two strategies, until the WTP threshold exceeds 40,160 British pounds/QALY. Further research is needed into the identification of those patients unlikely to benefit from this therapy, the appropriate use of CRT-D devices, the differences in mortality and heart failure hospitalisation for NYHA classes I and II, as well as the long-term implications of using this therapy.

BACKGROUND: Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) is a common side effect of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and is associated with increased risk of fracture and cardiovascular events (CV). Current standard treatment includes dietary control, phosphate binders and vitamin D. However, many patients do not have their parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcium and phosphate levels controlled by this regimen. Cinacalcet is the first of a new class of calcimimetic drugs which suppress PTH production. Although there is convincing evidence of the impact of cinacalcet on serum biomarkers, the long-term clinical implications of treatment are less clear. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-utility of cinacalcet as an addition to standard treatment of SHPT compared with standard treatment alone. METHODS: a Markov model was developed to estimate the incremental cost-utility of cinacalcet. Uncertainty was explored through extensive sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Compared with standard treatment, cinacalcet incurs average additional lifetime costs of pound21,167 per person and confers an additional 0.34 quality adjusted life years, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of pound61,890 (approximately euro89,000) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis showed that cinacalcet was only likely to be considered cost-effective if the relative risk of mortality for people with very high levels of PTH was 2.2 compared with people whose PTH reached target levels, or if drug costs were considerably reduced. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed cinacalcet was very unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay in the National Health Service (NHS). CONCLUSION: Unless the cost of cinacalcet is considerably reduced, it is unlikely to be considered a cost-effective treatment for people with SHPT.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant carmustine wafers (BCNU-W) and also of adjuvant and concomitant temozolomide (TMZ), compared with surgery with radiotherapy. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched up to August 2005. REVIEW METHODS: Included trials were critically appraised for key elements of internal and external validity. Relevant data were extracted and a narrative synthesis of the evidence produced. Where possible, data on absolute survival at a fixed time point were meta-analysed using a random effects model. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to assess the cost-utility of the two interventions. The model compared BCNU-W or TMZ separately with current standard treatment with surgery and radiotherapy. The simulated cohort had a mean age of 55 years and was modelled over 5 years. RESULTS: Two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (n = 32, n = 240) and two observational studies of BCNU-W compared with placebo wafers as adjuvant therapy to surgery and radiotherapy for newly diagnosed high-grade glioma were identified. All the studies were in adults and provided data on 193 patients who had received BCNU-W. The RCT findings excluded under 65-year-olds and those with a Karnofsky Performance Status of less than 60. The largest multi-centre RCT suggested a possible survival advantage with BCNU-W among a cohort of patients with grade III and IV tumours, adding a median of 2.3 months [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.5 to 5.1]. However, analysis using per-protocol, unstratified methods shows this difference to be not statistically significant (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.03, p = 0.08). Long-term follow-up suggests a significant survival advantage using unstratified analysis. No difference in progression-free survival (PFS) was demonstrated. Subgroup analysis of those with grade IV tumours also showed no significant survival advantage with BCNU-W [hazard ratio (HR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.11, p = 0.20, unstratified analysis]. It is estimated that the cost of surgery and radiotherapy, with follow-up, treatment of adverse effects and end of life care is around 17,000 pounds per patient. Treatment with BCNU-W adds an additional 6600 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of BCNU-W costs an additional 6.6 million pounds and confers an additional 122 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). On average, that is 6600 pounds per patient for 0.122 QALYs (6.3 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is 54,500 pounds/QALY. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, BCNU-W was not cost-effective in 89% of the simulations assuming a willingness to pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY. In 15% of simulations, BCNU-W was dominated (i.e. did more harm than good, conferring fewer QALYs at greater cost). The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) suggests that it is very unlikely to be the most cost-effective option at normal levels of willingness to pay (11% probability at 30,000 pounds/QALY), only becoming likely to be the most cost-effective option at much higher levels of willingness to pay (50% probability at 55,000 pounds/QALY). Two RCTs (n = 130, n = 573) and two observational studies were included, giving evidence for 429 adult patients receiving TMZ. Currently, TMZ is licensed for use in those with newly diagnosed grade IV gliomas only. The RCTs excluded those with lower performance status and, in the larger RCT, those older than 70 years. TMZ provides a small but statistically significant median survival benefit of 2.5 months (95% CI 2.0 to 3.8), giving an HR of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.75, p < 0.001). At 2 years, 26.5% of patients treated with TMZ were alive compared with 10.4% of those in the control arm. Median PFS is also enhanced with TMZ, giving a median 1.9 months' advantage (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7, p < 0.001). No analysis of the subgroup of patients with confirmed grade IV tumours was undertaken. Subgroup analysis of patients by O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) activity showed a significant treatment advantage for those with reduced MGMT activity but not for those with normal activity, although this analysis was based on a selected sample of patients and the test used has proved difficult to replicate. A median gain of 6.4 (95% CI 4.4 to 9.5) more life-months is seen with TMZ among those with reduced MGMT, giving an HR of 0.51 (p < 0.007). PFS is increased by a median of 4.4 months (95% CI 1.2 to 6.3), giving an HR of 0.48 (p = 0.001). The model shows a cost per patient for being treated with surgery, radiotherapy and including adverse effects of treatment and end of life care of around 17,000 pounds per patient. TMZ in the adjuvant and concomitant phase adds an additional cost of around 7800 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of TMZ costs an additional 7.8 million pounds and confers an additional 217 QALYs. For the average patient this is 7800 pounds for an additional 0.217 QALYs (11 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case ICER is 36,000 pounds/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses shows that TMZ was not cost-effective in 77% of the simulations. The CEAC suggests that there is a 23% chance that TMZ is the most cost-effective option at a willingness to pay level of 30,000 pounds/QALY, rising to be more cost-effective than no TMZ at slightly higher levels (50% probability at 35,000 pounds/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: BCNU-W has not been proven to confer a significant advantage in survival for patients with grade III tumours when treated with the drug, compared with placebo. There does not appear to be a survival advantage for patients with grade IV tumours. No increase in PFS has been shown. Limited evidence suggests a small but significant advantage in both overall survival and PFS with TMZ among a mixed population with grade IV and grade III (7-8%) tumours. However, it remains unclear whether this is true in grade IV tumours alone. On the basis of best available evidence, the authors consider that neither BCNU-W nor TMZ is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS decision-makers. However, data for the model were drawn from limited evidence of variable quality. Tumour type is clearly important in assessing patient prognosis with different treatments. Grade IV tumours are commonest and appear to have least chance of response. There were too few grade III tumours included to carry out a formal assessment, but they appear to respond better and drive results for both drugs. Future use of genetic and biomarkers may help identify subtypes which will respond, but current licensing indications do not specify these. Further research is suggested into the effectiveness of these drugs, and also into areas such as genetic markers, chemotherapy regimens, patient and carer quality of life, and patient views on survival advantages vs treatment disadvantages.

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant carmustine wafers (BCNU-W) and also of adjuvant and concomitant temozolomide (TMZ), compared with surgery with radiotherapy. Electronic databases were searched up to August 2005. Included trials were critically appraised for key elements of internal and external validity. Relevant data were extracted and a narrative synthesis of the evidence produced. Where possible, data on absolute survival at a fixed time point were meta-analysed using a random effects model. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to assess the cost-utility of the two interventions. The model compared BCNU-W or TMZ separately with current standard treatment with surgery and radiotherapy. The simulated cohort had a mean age of 55 years and was modelled over 5 years. Two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (n = 32, n = 240) and two observational studies of BCNU-W compared with placebo wafers as adjuvant therapy to surgery and radiotherapy for newly diagnosed high-grade glioma were identified. All the studies were in adults and provided data on 193 patients who had received BCNU-W. The RCT findings excluded under 65-year-olds and those with a Karnofsky Performance Status of less than 60. The largest multi-centre RCT suggested a possible survival advantage with BCNU-W among a cohort of patients with grade III and IV tumours, adding a median of 2.3 months [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.5 to 5.1]. However, analysis using per-protocol, unstratified methods shows this difference to be not statistically significant (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.03, p = 0.08). Long-term follow-up suggests a significant survival advantage using unstratified analysis. No difference in progression-free survival (PFS) was demonstrated. Subgroup analysis of those with grade IV tumours also showed no significant survival advantage with BCNU-W [hazard ratio (HR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.11, p = 0.20, unstratified analysis]. It is estimated that the cost of surgery and radiotherapy, with follow-up, treatment of adverse effects and end of life care is around 17,000 pounds per patient. Treatment with BCNU-W adds an additional 6600 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of BCNU-W costs an additional 6.6 million pounds and confers an additional 122 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). On average, that is 6600 pounds per patient for 0.122 QALYs (6.3 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is 54,500 pounds/QALY. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, BCNU-W was not cost-effective in 89% of the simulations assuming a willingness to pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY. In 15% of simulations, BCNU-W was dominated (i.e. did more harm than good, conferring fewer QALYs at greater cost). The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) suggests that it is very unlikely to be the most cost-effective option at normal levels of willingness to pay (11% probability at 30,000 pounds/QALY), only becoming likely to be the most cost-effective option at much higher levels of willingness to pay (50% probability at 55,000 pounds/QALY). Two RCTs (n = 130, n = 573) and two observational studies were included, giving evidence for 429 adult patients receiving TMZ. Currently, TMZ is licensed for use in those with newly diagnosed grade IV gliomas only. The RCTs excluded those with lower performance status and, in the larger RCT, those older than 70 years. TMZ provides a small but statistically significant median survival benefit of 2.5 months (95% CI 2.0 to 3.8), giving an HR of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.75, p. <. 0.001). At 2 years, 26.5% of patients treated with TMZ were alive compared with 10.4% of those in the control arm. Median PFS is also enhanced with TMZ, giving a median 1.9 months' advantage (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7, p. <. 0.001). No analysis of the subgroup of patients with confirmed grade IV tumours was undertaken. Subgroup analysis of patients by O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) activity showed a significant treatment advantage for those with reduced MGMT activity but not for those with normal activity, although this analysis was based on a selected sample of patients and the test used has proved difficult to replicate. A median gain of 6.4 (95% CI 4.4 to 9.5) more life-months is seen with TMZ among those with reduced MGMT, giving an HR of 0.51 (p. <. 0.007). PFS is increased by a median of 4.4 months (95% CI 1.2 to 6.3), giving an HR of 0.48 (p = 0.001). The model shows a cost per patient for being treated with surgery, radiotherapy and including adverse effects of treatment and end of life care of around 17,000 pounds per patient. TMZ in the adjuvant and concomitant phase adds an additional cost of around 7800 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of TMZ costs an additional 7.8 million pounds and confers an additional 217 QALYs. For the average patient this is 7800 pounds for an additional 0.217 QALYs (11 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case ICER is 36,000 pounds/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses shows that TMZ was not cost-effective in 77% of the simulations. The CEAC suggests that there is a 23% chance that TMZ is the most cost-effective option at a willingness to pay level of 30,000 pounds/QALY, rising to be more cost-effective than no TMZ at slightly higher levels (50% probability at 35,000 pounds/QALY). BCNU-W has not been proven to confer a significant advantage in survival for patients with grade III tumours when treated with the drug, compared with placebo. There does not appear to be a survival advantage for patients with grade IV tumours. No increase in PFS has been shown. Limited evidence suggests a small but significant advantage in both overall survival and PFS with TMZ among a mixed population with grade IV and grade III (7-8%) tumours. However, it remains unclear whether this is true in grade IV tumours alone. On the basis of best available evidence, the authors consider that neither BCNU-W nor TMZ is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS decision-makers. However, data for the model were drawn from limited evidence of variable quality. Tumour type is clearly important in assessing patient prognosis with different treatments. Grade IV tumours are commonest and appear to have least chance of response. There were too few grade III tumours included to carry out a formal assessment, but they appear to respond better and drive results for both drugs. Future use of genetic and biomarkers may help identify subtypes which will respond, but current licensing indications do not specify these. Further research is suggested into the effectiveness of these drugs, and also into areas such as genetic markers, chemotherapy regimens, patient and carer quality of life, and patient views on survival advantages vs treatment disadvantages.

Objectives: to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006. Review methods: Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p < 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional £21, 167 and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £61,890/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in ah ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from £39,000 to £92,000/QALY. Conclusions: Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

Objectives: to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006. Review methods: Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p. <. 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional £21, 167 and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £61,890/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in ah ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from £39,000 to £92,000/QALY. Conclusions: Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

To establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006. Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p. <. 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional 21,167 pounds and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 61,890 pounds/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in an ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from 39,000 pounds to 92,000 pounds/QALY. Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes.

Background: Pimecrolimus was developed as an alternative to topical corticosteroids for treating eczema (atopic dermatitis) but its efficacy and safety compared with existing treatments remains unclear. Objectives: to assess the effects of topical pimecrolimus for treating eczema. Search strategy: We searched the Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register (to October 2006), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2006), MEDLINE (from 2003 to October 2006), and EMBASE (from 2005 to October 2006). We also contacted researchers and manufacturers in the field. Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials of 1.0% topical pimecrolimus used twice daily compared against other topical comparators for treating eczema. Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently examined each retrieved study for eligibility and extracted data for efficacy, tolerability and safety. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Main results: We included 31 trials (8019 participants) in the analysis. In short-term (≤ 6 weeks) trials, pimecrolimus cream was significantly more effective and well-tolerated than vehicle (cream base, but not containing pimecrolimus). In long-term trials (≥6 months), pimecrolimus was significantly better than vehicle in preventing flares (9 trials, 3091 participants, RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.64 at six months) and in improving quality of life. Pimecrolimus was significantly less effective than two topical corticosteroids, i.e. 0.1% triamcinolone acetonide for investigators' global assessment (1 trial, 658 participants, RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.83) and 0.1% betamethasone valerate for participants' global assessment (1 trial, 87 participants, RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.81) at three weeks. Pimecrolimus was also associated with significantly more overall withdrawals and skin burning. None of the trials reported on key adverse effects such as thinning of skin. Pimecrolimus was significantly less effective than 0.1% tacrolimus for investigators' global assessment at six weeks (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.74) and led to more withdrawals due to lack of efficacy (RR 2.37, 95% CI 1.10 to 5.08) based on two trials involving 639 participants, but there was no significant difference in proportions of participants experiencing any adverse events. Authors' conclusions: Topical pimecrolimus is less effective than moderate and potent corticosteroids and 0.1% tacrolimus. The therapeutic role of topical pimecrolimus is uncertain due to the absence of key comparisons with mild corticosteroids. Copyright © 2008 the Cochrane Collaboration. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BACKGROUND: Pimecrolimus was developed as an alternative to topical corticosteroids for treating eczema (atopic dermatitis) but its efficacy and safety compared with existing treatments remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: to assess the effects of topical pimecrolimus for treating eczema. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register (to October 2006), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2006), MEDLINE (from 2003 to October 2006), and EMBASE (from 2005 to October 2006). We also contacted researchers and manufacturers in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials of 1.0% topical pimecrolimus used twice daily compared against other topical comparators for treating eczema. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently examined each retrieved study for eligibility and extracted data for efficacy, tolerability and safety. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). MAIN RESULTS: We included 31 trials (8019 participants) in the analysis. In short-term (/=6 months), pimecrolimus was significantly better than vehicle in preventing flares (9 trials, 3091 participants, RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.64 at six months) and in improving quality of life. Pimecrolimus was significantly less effective than two topical corticosteroids, i.e. 0.1% triamcinolone acetonide for investigators' global assessment (1 trial, 658 participants, RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.83) and 0.1% betamethasone valerate for participants' global assessment (1 trial, 87 participants, RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.81) at three weeks. Pimecrolimus was also associated with significantly more overall withdrawals and skin burning. None of the trials reported on key adverse effects such as thinning of skin. Pimecrolimus was significantly less effective than 0.1% tacrolimus for investigators' global assessment at six weeks (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.74) and led to more withdrawals due to lack of efficacy (RR 2.37, 95% CI 1.10 to 5.08) based on two trials involving 639 participants, but there was no significant difference in proportions of participants experiencing any adverse events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Topical pimecrolimus is less effective than moderate and potent corticosteroids and 0.1% tacrolimus. The therapeutic role of topical pimecrolimus is uncertain due to the absence of key comparisons with mild corticosteroids.

BACKGROUND: Conventional treatments for atopic eczema include topical corticosteroids (TCS) and emollients. Pimecrolimus, an immunosuppressant, was licensed in the U.K. in 2003 as an alternative treatment of mild to moderate atopic eczema. OBJECTIVES: to assess the cost-utility of pimecrolimus as a treatment for mild and moderate atopic eczema when compared with conventional treatments which use TCS and emollients. METHODS: a Markov state-transition model was developed to represent the cyclical nature of atopic eczema and provide an economic analysis of cost-utility for treatment alternatives from the perspective of a third party payer (U.K. National Health Service). A range of methods was used to obtain data for transition probabilities, costs and quality of life. These included a systematic review of published effectiveness data, expert opinion, and a utility study conducted by the authors. Separate cohort analyses were modelled to distinguish between children and adult populations and between differing treatment patterns for facial and body eczema. One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (using Monte-Carlo simulation) were performed. RESULTS: Baseline cost-utility outputs from the model show that, in all tested scenarios, TCS dominate pimecrolimus (i.e. TCS are both cheaper and more effective). However, the differences in benefits between treatments output by the model are very small. Sensitivity analyses highlight the importance of cost variations in pimecrolimus. Where pimecrolimus is compared with emollient only it is probably cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30 000 UK pounds per quality-adjusted life year. CONCLUSIONS: There are likely to be few situations in which the use of pimecrolimus for the treatment of atopic eczema can be justified on economic grounds. Exceptions are likely to be in cases where TCS have been shown to be ineffective, unacceptable due to adverse events, or where a patient is unwilling to accept TCS treatment despite appropriate education and support and emollient alone is the alternative clinical option.

OBJECTIVES: to pilot using a panel of members of the public to provide preference data via the Internet METHODS: a stratified random sample of members of the general public was recruited and familiarized with the standard gamble procedure using an Internet based tool. Health states were periodically presented in "sets" corresponding to different conditions, during the study. The following were described: Recruitment (proportion of people approached who were trained); Participation (a) the proportion of people trained who provided any preferences and (b) the proportion of panel members who contributed to each "set" of values; and Compliance (the proportion, per participant, of preference tasks which were completed). The influence of covariates on these outcomes was investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: a panel of 112 people was recruited. 23% of those approached (n = 5,320) responded to the invitation, and 24% of respondents (n = 1,215) were willing to participate (net = 5.5%). However, eventual recruitment rates, following training, were low (2.1% of those approached). Recruitment from areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities was low. Eighteen sets of health state descriptions were considered over 14 months. 74% of panel members carried out at least one valuation task. People from areas of higher socioeconomic deprivation and unmarried people were less likely to participate. An average of 41% of panel members expressed preferences on each set of descriptions. Compliance ranged from 3% to 100%. CONCLUSION: it is feasible to establish a panel of members of the general public to express preferences on a wide range of health state descriptions using the Internet, although differential recruitment and attrition are important challenges. Particular attention to recruitment and retention in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities is necessary. Nevertheless, the panel approach to preference measurement using the Internet offers the potential to provide specific utility data in a responsive manner for use in economic evaluations and to address some of the outstanding methodological uncertainties in this field.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C is an important public health problem. The need for more intensified action to identify those infected with the virus has been recognized. Primary care is an important setting for case finding. OBJECTIVES: to estimate the cost utility of case finding for hepatitis C in primary care, specifically amongst former injecting drug users (IDUs). METHODS: a Markov model was developed to investigate the impact of case finding and treatment on progression of hepatitis C (HCV) in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 former IDUs. Comparison was made with a similar cohort in which no systematic case finding was implemented but spontaneous presentation for testing was allowed. Two scenarios were explored. The testing protocol utilized ELISA and PCR tests. Those eligible for treatment received combination therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Parameter estimates were obtained from literature searches and experts in the field. RESULTS: Few estimates of the uptake of HCV testing in primary care are available. Cost utility was estimated at around 16,000 pounds sterling/QALY for both scenarios. At a willingness to pay of 30,000 pounds sterling/QALY, there is approximately a 75% probability that the initiatives would be cost-effective. Choices regarding the utility data, discounting and the rates of spontaneous/re-presentation outside of a case-finding programme appear to be important areas of uncertainty in this model. CONCLUSION: Case finding for HCV in primary care is likely to be considered cost-effective but substantial uncertainties remain. Further research is needed on different approaches to case finding in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Functional endoscopic sinus surgery (FESS) has been used for >20 years for the management of sinus disease including the excision of nasal polyps. Our objective was to perform a systematic review of safety and effectiveness of FESS for the removal of nasal polyps. METHODS: the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, other databases, and websites were searched in January and December 2005 using key words for nasal polyps and endoscopic surgery. All randomized controlled trials, nonrandomized comparative studies, and case series studies that described outcomes associated with FESS for the excision of nasal polyps were included. Forty-two publications were included from the 632 (6.6%) articles initially identified. Two reviewers assessed validity of included studies and extracted relevant data. RESULTS: Three randomized controlled trials, 4 nonrandomized comparative studies, and 35 case series studies were included in the review. FESS was compared with endoscopic polypectomy, Caldwell-Luc, radical nasalization, and intranasal ethmoidectomy. In general, studies were of poor quality and lacked description of important variables influencing surgical outcome. Overall complications for FESS from case series studies ranged from 0.3 to 22.4% (median, 7.0%). Major complications ranged from 0 to 1.5% (median, 0%) and minor complications ranged from 1.1 to 20.8% (median, 7.5%). The potentially most serious complications were cerebrospinal fluid leaks, injury to the internal carotid artery, dural exposure, meningitis, bleeding requiring transfusion, periorbital/orbital fat exposure, and orbital penetration. Symptomatic improvement ranged from 78 to 88% for FESS compared with 43 to 84% for comparative procedures. From case series, symptomatic improvement ranged from 40 to 98% (median, 88%). CONCLUSION: FESS may offer some advantages in safety and effectiveness over comparative techniques, but wide variation in reported results and methodological shortcomings of studies limit the certainty of these conclusions. Wide variation in complication rates suggests the need for audit of existing practice. Additional high-quality studies with a fuller description of potential confounding factors and effect modifiers will help to define the effectiveness of FESS more clearly.

BACKGROUND: the completeness of preferences is assumed as one of the axioms of expected utility theory but has been subject to little empirical study. METHODS: Fifteen non-health professionals was recruited and familiarised with the standard gamble technique. The group then met five times over six months and preferences were elicited independently on 41 scenarios. After individual valuation, the group discussed the scenarios, following which preferences could be changed. Changes made were described and summary measures (mean and median) before and after discussion compared using paired t test and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. Semi-structured telephone interviews were carried out to explore attitudes to discussing preferences. These were transcribed, read by two investigators and emergent themes described. RESULTS: Sixteen changes (3.6%) were made to preferences by seven (47%) of the fifteen members. The difference between individual preference values before and after discussion ranged from -0.025 to 0.45. The average effect on the group mean was 0.0053. No differences before and after discussion were statistically significant. The group valued discussion highly and suggested it brought four main benefits: reassurance; improved procedural performance; increased group cohesion; satisfying curiosity. CONCLUSION: the hypothesis that preferences are incomplete cannot be rejected for a proportion of respondents. However, brief discussion did not result in substantial number of changes to preferences and these did not have significant impact on summary values for the group, suggesting that incompleteness, if present, may not have an important effect on cost-utility analyses.

BACKGROUND: Ciclesonide is a new inhaled corticosteroids licensed for the prophylactic treatment of persistent asthma in adults. Currently beclomethasone dipropionate, budesonide and fluticasone propionate are the most commonly prescribed inhaled corticosteroids for the treatment of asthma but there has been no systematic review comparing the effectiveness and safety ciclesonide to these agents. We therefore aimed to systematically review published randomised controlled trials of the effectiveness and safety of ciclesonide compared to alternative inhaled corticosteroids in people with asthma. METHODS: We performed literature searches on MEDLINE, EMBASE, PUBMED, the COCHRANE LIBRARY and various Internet evidence sources for randomised controlled trials or systematic reviews comparing ciclesonide to beclomethasone or budesonide or fluticasone in adult humans with persistent asthma. Data was extracted by one reviewer. RESULTS: Five studies met the inclusion criteria. Methodological quality was variable. There were no trials comparing ciclesonide to beclomethasone. There was no significant difference between ciclesonide and budesonide or fluticasone on the following outcomes: lung function, symptoms, quality of life, airway responsiveness to a provoking agent or inflammatory markers. However, the trials were very small in size, increasing the possibility of a type II error. One trial demonstrated that the combined deposition of ciclesonide (and its active metabolite) in the oropharynx was 47% of that of budesonide while another trial demonstrated that the combined deposition of ciclesonide (and its active metabolite) in the oropharynx was 53% of that of fluticasone. One trial demonstrated less suppression of cortisol in overnight urine collection after ciclesonide compared to fluticasone (geometric mean fold difference = 1.5, P < 0.05) but no significant difference in plasma cortisol response. CONCLUSION: There is very little evidence comparing CIC to other ICS, restricted to very small, phase II studies of low power. These demonstrate CIC has similar effectiveness and efficacy to FP and BUD (though equivalence is not certain) and findings regarding oral deposition and HPA suppression are inconclusive. There is no direct comparative evidence that CIC causes fewer side effects since none of the studies reported patient-based outcomes.

Objectives: to assess what is known about the effectiveness, safety, affordability, cost-effectiveness and organisational impact of endoscopic surveillance in preventing morbidity and mortality from adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's oesophagus. In addition, to identify important areas of uncertainty in current knowledge for these programmes and to identify areas for further research. Data sources: El ectronic databases up to March 2004. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK. Review methods: a systematic review of the effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus was carried out following methodological guidelines. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK were invited to contribute to a workshop held in London in May 2004 on surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. Small group discussion, using a modified nominal group technique, identified key areas of uncertainty and ranked them for importance. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a surveillance programme for patients with Barrett's oesophagus compared with no surveillance and to quantify important areas of uncertainty. The model estimates incremental cost-utility and expected value of perfect information for an endoscopic surveillance programme compared with no surveillance. A cohort of 1000 55-year-old men with a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus was modelled for 20 years. The base case used costs in 2004 and took the perspective of the UK NHS. Estimates of expected value of information were included. Results: No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or well-designed non-ra ndomised controlled studies were identified, although two comparative studies and numerous case series were found. Reaching clear conclusions from these studies was impossible owing to lack of RCT evidence. In addition, there was incomplete reporting of data particularly about cause of death, and changes in surveillance practice over time were mentioned but not explained in several studies. Three cost-utility analyses of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus were identified, of which one was a further development of a previous study by the same group. Both sets of authors used Markov modelling and confined their analysis to 50- or 55-year-old white men with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) symptoms. The models were run either for 30 years or to age 75 years. As these models are American, there are almost certainly differences in practice from the UK and possible underlying differences in the epidemiology and natural history of the disease. The costs of the procedures involved are also likely to be very different. The expert workshop identified the following key areas of uncertainty that needed to be addressed: the contribution of risk factors for the progression of Barrett's oesophagus to the development of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus; possible techniques for use in the general population to identify patients with high risk of adenocarcinoma; effectiveness of treatments for Barrett's oesophagus in altering cancer incidence; how best to identify those at risk in order to target treatment; whether surveillance programmes should take place at all; and whether there are clinical subgroups at higher risk of adenocarcinoma. Our Markov model suggests that the base case scenario of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus at 3-yearly intervals, with low-grade dysplasia surveyed yearly and HGD 3-monthly, does more harm than good when compared with no surveillance. Surveillance produces fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for higher cost than no surveillance, therefore it is dominated by no surveillance. The cost per cancer identified approaches £45,000 in the surveillance arm and there is no apparent survival advantage owing to high recurrence rates and increased mortality due to more oesophagectomies in this arm. Non-surveillance continues to cost less and result in better quality of life whatever the surveillance intervals for Barrett's oesophagus and dysplastic states and whatever the costs (including none) attached to endoscopy and biopsy as the surveillance test. The probabilistic analyses assess the overall uncertainty in the model. According to this, it is very unlikely that surveillance will be cost-effective even at relatively high levels of willingness to pay. The simulation showed that, in the majority of model runs, non-surveillance continued to cost less and result in better quality of life than surveillance. At the population level (i.e. people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales), a value of £6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus using expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analyses, if the surveillance is assumed to be relevant over 10 years. As with the one-way sensitivity analyses, the partial EVPI highlighted recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (ACO) after surgery and time taken for ACO to become symptomatic as particularly important parameters in the model. Conclusions: the systematic review concludes that there is insufficient evidence available to assess the clinical effectiveness of surveillance programmes of Barrett's oesophagus. There are numerous gaps in the evidence, of which the lack of RCT data is the major one. The expert workshop reflected these gaps in the range of topics raised as important in answering the question of the effectiveness of surveillance. Previous models of cost-effectiveness have most recently shown that surveillance programmes either do more harm than good compared with no surveillance or are unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay. Our cost-utility model has shown that, across a range of values for the various parameters that have been chosen to reflect uncertainty in the inputs, it is likely that surveillance programmes do more harm than good - costing more and conferring lower quality of life than no surveillance. Probabilistic analysis shows that, in most cases, surveillance does more harm and costs more than no surveillance. It is unlikely, but still possible, that surveillance may prove to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, however, shows that surveillance is unlikely to be cost-effective at either the 'usual' level of willingness to pay (£20,000-30,000 per QALY) or at much higher levels. The expected value of perfect information at the population level is £6.5 million. Future research should target both the overall effectiveness of surveillance and the individual elements that contribute to a surveillance programme, particularly the performance of the test and the effectiveness of treatment for both Barrett's oesophagus and ACO. In addition, of particular importance is the clarification of the natural history of Barrett's oesophagus. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2006. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVES: to assess what is known about the effectiveness, safety, affordability, cost-effectiveness and organisational impact of endoscopic surveillance in preventing morbidity and mortality from adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's oesophagus. In addition, to identify important areas of uncertainty in current knowledge for these programmes and to identify areas for further research. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases up to March 2004. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK. REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review of the effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus was carried out following methodological guidelines. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK were invited to contribute to a workshop held in London in May 2004 on surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. Small group discussion, using a modified nominal group technique, identified key areas of uncertainty and ranked them for importance. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a surveillance programme for patients with Barrett's oesophagus compared with no surveillance and to quantify important areas of uncertainty. The model estimates incremental cost--utility and expected value of perfect information for an endoscopic surveillance programme compared with no surveillance. A cohort of 1000 55-year-old men with a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus was modelled for 20 years. The base case used costs in 2004 and took the perspective of the UK NHS. Estimates of expected value of information were included. RESULTS: No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or well-designed non-randomised controlled studies were identified, although two comparative studies and numerous case series were found. Reaching clear conclusions from these studies was impossible owing to lack of RCT evidence. In addition, there was incomplete reporting of data particularly about cause of death, and changes in surveillance practice over time were mentioned but not explained in several studies. Three cost--utility analyses of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus were identified, of which one was a further development of a previous study by the same group. Both sets of authors used Markov modelling and confined their analysis to 50- or 55-year-old white men with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) symptoms. The models were run either for 30 years or to age 75 years. As these models are American, there are almost certainly differences in practice from the UK and possible underlying differences in the epidemiology and natural history of the disease. The costs of the procedures involved are also likely to be very different. The expert workshop identified the following key areas of uncertainty that needed to be addressed: the contribution of risk factors for the progression of Barrett's oesophagus to the development of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus; possible techniques for use in the general population to identify patients with high risk of adenocarcinoma; effectiveness of treatments for Barrett's oesophagus in altering cancer incidence; how best to identify those at risk in order to target treatment; whether surveillance programmes should take place at all; and whether there are clinical subgroups at higher risk of adenocarcinoma. Our Markov model suggests that the base case scenario of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus at 3-yearly intervals, with low-grade dysplasia surveyed yearly and HGD 3-monthly, does more harm than good when compared with no surveillance. Surveillance produces fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for higher cost than no surveillance, therefore it is dominated by no surveillance. The cost per cancer identified approaches pound 45,000 in the surveillance arm and there is no apparent survival advantage owing to high recurrence rates and increased mortality due to more oesophagectomies in this arm. Non-surveillance continues to cost less and result in better quality of life whatever the surveillance intervals for Barrett's oesophagus and dysplastic states and whatever the costs (including none) attached to endoscopy and biopsy as the surveillance test. The probabilistic analyses assess the overall uncertainty in the model. According to this, it is very unlikely that surveillance will be cost-effective even at relatively high levels of willingness to pay. The simulation showed that, in the majority of model runs, non-surveillance continued to cost less and result in better quality of life than surveillance. At the population level (i.e. people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales), a value of pound 6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus using expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analyses, if the surveillance is assumed to be relevant over 10 years. As with the one-way sensitivity analyses, the partial EVPI highlighted recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (ACO) after surgery and time taken for ACO to become symptomatic as particularly important parameters in the model. CONCLUSIONS: the systematic review concludes that there is insufficient evidence available to assess the clinical effectiveness of surveillance programmes of Barrett's oesophagus. There are numerous gaps in the evidence, of which the lack of RCT data is the major one. The expert workshop reflected these gaps in the range of topics raised as important in answering the question of the effectiveness of surveillance. Previous models of cost-effectiveness have most recently shown that surveillance programmes either do more harm than good compared with no surveillance or are unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay. Our cost--utility model has shown that, across a range of values for the various parameters that have been chosen to reflect uncertainty in the inputs, it is likely that surveillance programmes do more harm than good -- costing more and conferring lower quality of life than no surveillance. Probabilistic analysis shows that, in most cases, surveillance does more harm and costs more than no surveillance. It is unlikely, but still possible, that surveillance may prove to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, however, shows that surveillance is unlikely to be cost-effective at either the 'usual' level of willingness to pay ( pound 20,000-30,000 per QALY) or at much higher levels. The expected value of perfect information at the population level is pound 6.5 million. Future research should target both the overall effectiveness of surveillance and the individual elements that contribute to a surveillance programme, particularly the performance of the test and the effectiveness of treatment for both Barrett's oesophagus and ACO. In addition, of particular importance is the clarification of the natural history of Barrett's oesophagus.

To assess what is known about the effectiveness, safety, affordability, cost-effectiveness and organisational impact of endoscopic surveillance in preventing morbidity and mortality from adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's oesophagus. In addition, to identify important areas of uncertainty in current knowledge for these programmes and to identify areas for further research. Electronic databases up to March 2004. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK. A systematic review of the effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus was carried out following methodological guidelines. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK were invited to contribute to a workshop held in London in May 2004 on surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. Small group discussion, using a modified nominal group technique, identified key areas of uncertainty and ranked them for importance. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a surveillance programme for patients with Barrett's oesophagus compared with no surveillance and to quantify important areas of uncertainty. The model estimates incremental cost--utility and expected value of perfect information for an endoscopic surveillance programme compared with no surveillance. A cohort of 1000 55-year-old men with a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus was modelled for 20 years. The base case used costs in 2004 and took the perspective of the UK NHS. Estimates of expected value of information were included. No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or well-designed non-randomised controlled studies were identified, although two comparative studies and numerous case series were found. Reaching clear conclusions from these studies was impossible owing to lack of RCT evidence. In addition, there was incomplete reporting of data particularly about cause of death, and changes in surveillance practice over time were mentioned but not explained in several studies. Three cost--utility analyses of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus were identified, of which one was a further development of a previous study by the same group. Both sets of authors used Markov modelling and confined their analysis to 50- or 55-year-old white men with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) symptoms. The models were run either for 30 years or to age 75 years. As these models are American, there are almost certainly differences in practice from the UK and possible underlying differences in the epidemiology and natural history of the disease. The costs of the procedures involved are also likely to be very different. The expert workshop identified the following key areas of uncertainty that needed to be addressed: the contribution of risk factors for the progression of Barrett's oesophagus to the development of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus; possible techniques for use in the general population to identify patients with high risk of adenocarcinoma; effectiveness of treatments for Barrett's oesophagus in altering cancer incidence; how best to identify those at risk in order to target treatment; whether surveillance programmes should take place at all; and whether there are clinical subgroups at higher risk of adenocarcinoma. Our Markov model suggests that the base case scenario of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus at 3-yearly intervals, with low-grade dysplasia surveyed yearly and HGD 3-monthly, does more harm than good when compared with no surveillance. Surveillance produces fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for higher cost than no surveillance, therefore it is dominated by no surveillance. The cost per cancer identified approaches pound 45,000 in the surveillance arm and there is no apparent survival advantage owing to high recurrence rates and increased mortality due to more oesophagectomies in this arm. Non-surveillance continues to cost less and result in better quality of life whatever the surveillance intervals for Barrett's oesophagus and dysplastic states and whatever the costs (including none) attached to endoscopy and biopsy as the surveillance test. The probabilistic analyses assess the overall uncertainty in the model. According to this, it is very unlikely that surveillance will be cost-effective even at relatively high levels of willingness to pay. The simulation showed that, in the majority of model runs, non-surveillance continued to cost less and result in better quality of life than surveillance. At the population level (i.e. people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales), a value of pound 6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus using expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analyses, if the surveillance is assumed to be relevant over 10 years. As with the one-way sensitivity analyses, the partial EVPI highlighted recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (ACO) after surgery and time taken for ACO to become symptomatic as particularly important parameters in the model. The systematic review concludes that there is insufficient evidence available to assess the clinical effectiveness of surveillance programmes of Barrett's oesophagus. There are numerous gaps in the evidence, of which the lack of RCT data is the major one. The expert workshop reflected these gaps in the range of topics raised as important in answering the question of the effectiveness of surveillance. Previous models of cost-effectiveness have most recently shown that surveillance programmes either do more harm than good compared with no surveillance or are unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay. Our cost--utility model has shown that, across a range of values for the various parameters that have been chosen to reflect uncertainty in the inputs, it is likely that surveillance programmes do more harm than good -- costing more and conferring lower quality of life than no surveillance. Probabilistic analysis shows that, in most cases, surveillance does more harm and costs more than no surveillance. It is unlikely, but still possible, that surveillance may prove to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, however, shows that surveillance is unlikely to be cost-effective at either the 'usual' level of willingness to pay ( pound 20,000-30,000 per QALY) or at much higher levels. The expected value of perfect information at the population level is pound 6.5 million. Future research should target both the overall effectiveness of surveillance and the individual elements that contribute to a surveillance programme, particularly the performance of the test and the effectiveness of treatment for both Barrett's oesophagus and ACO. In addition, of particular importance is the clarification of the natural history of Barrett's oesophagus.

Objectives: to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of testing for hepatitis C (HCV) among former injecting drug users (IDUs). Data sources: Electronic databases 1996-October 2004. Trent Regional Database Study. Routine UK mortality data. Review methods: a decision analytic model was developed to investigate the impact of case-finding and treatment on progression of HCV disease in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 people. This was compared with a cohort in whom no systematic case-finding is implemented but spontaneous presentation for testing is allowed to occur. A group of epidemiological and clinical experts informed the structure of the model, which has three main components: (1) testing and diagnosis, (2) treatment, and (3) long-term consequences of infection. A fourth component, case-finding strategies, examines the potential impact of case-finding in three settings: prisons, general practice and drug services. Results: Case-finding for HCV is likely to prevent, for 1000 people approached, three cases of decompensated cirrhosis, three deaths due to HCV and one case of hepatocellular cancer (at 30 years). Twenty-five additional people are likely to undergo combination therapy as a result of initial case-finding. One liver transplant is likely to be prevented for 10,000 people included in case-finding. Case-finding is likely to cost, in the general case, around £760,000 more than a policy of not case-finding. The total cost of either strategy is high and driven predominantly by the cost of treatment with combination therapy (the costs of long-term consequences are heavily discounted owing to the duration of the model). Systematically offering testing to 1000 people would cost around £70,000. In terms of life-years gained, case-finding is likely to result in an additional life-year gained for an investment of £20,084. Taking impacts on quality of life into account gives an estimate for the cost-utility of case-finding as £16,514 per QALY the probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that, if NHS policy makers view £30,000 per QALY as an acceptable return on investment, there is a 74% probability that case-finding for HCV would be considered cost-effective. At £30,000 per QALY, the probability that case-finding would be considered cost-effective is 64%. In all analyses, the probability of case-finding being considered cost-effective at a level of £30,000 per QALY was high. Case-finding in drug services is likely to be the most expensive, owing to the high prevalence of cases in the tested population. Correspondingly, benefits are highest for this strategy and cost-effectiveness is similar, in average terms, to the general case. Case-finding in general practice by offering testing to the whole population aged 30-54 years is, paradoxically, estimated to be the least expensive option as only a small number of people accept the offer of testing and HCV prevalence in this group is much higher than would be expected from the general population. Two approaches to case-finding in prison were considered, based on the results of studies in Dartmoor and the Isle of Wight prisons. These differed substantially in the prevalence of cases identified in the tested populations. The analysis based on data from Dartmoor prison had the least favourable average cost-effectiveness of the strategies considered (£20,000 per QALY). Subgroup analyses based on duration of infection show that case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective in people whose infection is more long-standing and who are consequently at greater risk of progression. In people who were infected more than 20 years previously, case-finding yields benefits at around £15,000 per QALY Treatment effectiveness was modelled using estimates from randomised controlled trials and lower rates of viral response may be seen in practice. However, estimates of cost-effectiveness remained below £30,000 for all levels of treatment effectiveness above 58% of those shown in the relevant trials. The value of information analysis, based on assumptions that 10,000 people might be eligible for case-finding and that programmes would run for 15 years, suggests that the maximum value of further research into case-finding is in excess of £19 million. Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis shows that the utility estimates used in the model eclipse all other factors in terms of importance to parameter uncertainty. This is not surprising, since the point estimates for differences in utility between states and across the arms of the model are small. Conclusions: Case-finding for hepatitis C is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS commissioners. Although there remains considerable uncertainty, it appears unlikely that cost-effectiveness would exceed the levels considered acceptable. Further improvements in the effectiveness of treatments to slow or halt disease progression are likely to improve the cost-effectiveness of case-finding. Case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective if targeted at people whose HCV disease is probably more advanced. Further empirical work is required to specify, in practice, different approaches to case-finding in appropriate settings and to evaluate their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness directly. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2006. All rights reserved.

To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of testing for hepatitis C (HCV) among former injecting drug users (IDUs). Electronic databases 1996-October 2004. Trent Regional Database Study. Routine UK mortality data. A decision analytic model was developed to investigate the impact of case-finding and treatment on progression of HCV disease in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 people. This was compared with a cohort in whom no systematic case-finding is implemented but spontaneous presentation for testing is allowed to occur. A group of epidemiological and clinical experts informed the structure of the model, which has three main components: (1) testing and diagnosis, (2) treatment, and (3) long-term consequences of infection. A fourth component, case-finding strategies, examines the potential impact of case-finding in three settings: prisons, general practice and drug services. Case-finding for HCV is likely to prevent, for 1000 people approached, three cases of decompensated cirrhosis, three deaths due to HCV and one case of hepatocellular cancer (at 30 years). Twenty-five additional people are likely to undergo combination therapy as a result of initial case-finding. One liver transplant is likely to be prevented for 10,000 people included in case-finding. Case-finding is likely to cost, in the general case, around pounds sterling 760,000 more than a policy of not case-finding. The total cost of either strategy is high and driven predominantly by the cost of treatment with combination therapy (the costs of long-term consequences are heavily discounted owing to the duration of the model). Systematically offering testing to 1000 people would cost around pounds sterling 70,000. In terms of life-years gained, case-finding is likely to result in an additional life-year gained for an investment of pounds sterling 20,084. Taking impacts on quality of life into account gives an estimate for the cost-utility of case-finding as pounds sterling 16,514 per QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that, if NHS policy makers view pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY as an acceptable return on investment, there is a 74% probability that case-finding for HCV would be considered cost-effective. At pounds sterling 20,000 per QALY, the probability that case-finding would be considered cost-effective is 64%. In all analyses, the probability of case-finding being considered cost-effective at a level of pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY was high. Case-finding in drug services is likely to be the most expensive, owing to the high prevalence of cases in the tested population. Correspondingly, benefits are highest for this strategy and cost-effectiveness is similar, in average terms, to the general case. Case-finding in general practice by offering testing to the whole population aged 30-54 years is, paradoxically, estimated to be the least expensive option as only a small number of people accept the offer of testing and HCV prevalence in this group is much higher than would be expected from the general population. Two approaches to case-finding in prison were considered, based on the results of studies in Dartmoor and the Isle of Wight prisons. These differed substantially in the prevalence of cases identified in the tested populations. The analysis based on data from Dartmoor prison had the least favourable average cost-effectiveness of the strategies considered (pounds sterling 20,000 per QALY). Subgroup analyses based on duration of infection show that case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective in people whose infection is more long-standing and who are consequently at greater risk of progression. In people who were infected more than 20 years previously, case-finding yields benefits at around pounds sterling 15,000 per QALY. Treatment effectiveness was modelled using estimates from randomised controlled trials and lower rates of viral response may be seen in practice. However, estimates of cost-effectiveness remained below pounds sterling 30,000 for all levels of treatment effectiveness above 58% of those shown in the relevant trials. The value of information analysis, based on assumptions that 10,000 people might be eligible for case-finding and that programmes would run for 15 years, suggests that the maximum value of further research into case-finding is in excess of pounds sterling 19 million. Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis shows that the utility estimates used in the model eclipse all other factors in terms of importance to parameter uncertainty. This is not surprising, since the point estimates for differences in utility between states and across the arms of the model are small. Case-finding for hepatitis C is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS commissioners. Although there remains considerable uncertainty, it appears unlikely that cost-effectiveness would exceed the levels considered acceptable. Further improvements in the effectiveness of treatments to slow or halt disease progression are likely to improve the cost-effectiveness of case-finding. Case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective if targeted at people whose HCV disease is probably more advanced. Further empirical work is required to specify, in practice, different approaches to case-finding in appropriate settings and to evaluate their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness directly.

OBJECTIVES: Case series constitute a weak form of evidence for effectiveness of health technologies. However, for a variety of reasons, such studies may be included in health technology assessments. There are no clear criteria for assessing the quality of case series. We carried out an empirical investigation of the association between outcome frequency and methodological characteristics in a sample of health technology assessments. METHODS: Systematic reviews of functional endoscopic sinus surgery for nasal polyps, spinal cord stimulation for chronic back pain, and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass grafting for chronic stable angina were identified as containing more than forty case series. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second on population characteristics, outcomes, and the following methodological features: sample size, prospective/retrospective approach, consecutive recruitment, multi- or single-center organization, length of follow-up, independence of outcome measurement, and date of publication. Association between methodological features and outcome were explored in univariate and multivariate analyses using parametric and nonparametric tests and robust regression or analysis of variance/analysis of covariance, as appropriate. RESULTS: Included reviews contained between forty-two and seventy-six case series studies, involving 5 to 172,283 participants. Reporting of methodological features was poor and limited the analyses. In general, we found little evidence of any association between methodological characteristics and outcome. Sample size is used as an inclusion criterion in many reviews of'case series but was consistently shown to have no relationship to outcome in all analyses. A prospective approach was not associated with outcome. Insufficient data were available to explore consecutive recruitment. Mixed results were shown for length of follow-up, independence of outcome measurement, and publication date. CONCLUSIONS: We found little evidence to support the use of many of the factors included in tools used for quality assessment of case series. Importantly, we found no relationship between study size and outcome across the four examples studied. Isolated examples of a potentially important relationship between other methodological factors and outcome were shown, for example, blinding of outcome measurement, but these examples were not shown consistently across the small number of examples studied. Further research into the determinants of quality in case series studies is required to support health technology assessment.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the cost utility of imatinib compared with interferon (IFN)-alpha or hydroxycarbamide (hydroxyurea) for first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia. DESIGN AND SETTING: a cost-utility (Markov) model within the setting of the UK NHS and viewed from a health system perspective was adopted. Transition probabilities and relative risks were estimated from published literature. Costs of drug treatment, outpatient care, bone marrow biopsies, radiography, blood transfusions and inpatient care were obtained from the British National Formulary and local hospital databases. Costs (pound, year 2001-03 values) were discounted at 6%. Quality-of-life (QOL) data were obtained from the published literature and discounted at 1.5%. The main outcome measure was cost per QALY gained. Extensive one-way sensitivity analyses were performed along with probabilistic (stochastic) analysis. RESULTS: the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of imatinib, compared with IFNalpha, was pound26,180 per QALY gained (one-way sensitivity analyses ranged from pound19,449 to pound51,870) and compared with hydroxycarbamide was pound86,934 per QALY (one-way sensitivity analyses ranged from pound69,701 to pound147,095) [ pound1=$US1.691=euro1.535 as at 31 December 2002].Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 50% of the ICERs for imatinib, compared with IFNalpha, fell below a threshold of approximately pound31,000 per QALY gained. Fifty percent of ICERs for imatinib, compared with hydroxycarbamide, fell below approximately pound95,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: This model suggests, given its underlying data and assumptions, that imatinib may be moderately cost effective when compared with IFNalpha but considerably less cost effective when compared with hydroxycarbamide. There are, however, many uncertainties due to the lack of long-term data.

Objectives: to review the use of case series in National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) reports, to review systematically the methodological literature for papers relating to the validity of aspects of case series design, and to investigate characteristics and findings of case series using examples from the UK's Health Technology Assessment programme. Data sources: Electronic databases. NICE website. Reports produced as part of the UK's HTA programme. Review methods: NICE HTAs that used information from case series studies were obtained from the NICE website and a range of quality criteria applied. Searches of electronic databases, handsearched journals and the bibliographies of papers were made in order to find studies that assessed aspects of case series design, analysis or quality in relation to study validity. Hypotheses relating to the design of case series studies were developed and empirically investigated using four case examples from existing reports produced as part of the UK's HTA programme (functional endoscopic sinus surgery for nasal polyps, spinal cord stimulation for chronic back pain, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass grafting for chronic angina). Analysis was undertaken comparing studies within each review. Results: There was no consensus on which case series to include in HTAs, how to use them or how to assess their quality, despite them being used in 30% of NICE HTAs. No previous studies empirically investigating methodological characteristics of case series were found. However, it is possible that the search strategy failed to find relevant studies. Poor reporting of case series characteristics severely constrained analysis and there were insufficient data to investigate all the hypotheses. Findings were not consistent across the different topics and were subject to considerable uncertainty. All the examples in our analysis were surgical interventions, which are prone to additional confounding factors due to difficulties of standardisation compared with drug treatment. Our findings may not be generalisable outside the interventions studied. The case series reports included generally exhibited poor reporting of methodological characteristics. This constrained our analysis. The use of several methods of analysis has led to apparently discrepant results. Given the number of analysis performed, the usual level of significance (p = 0.05) should be viewed with caution. The most important limitation of this study is the small number of cases on which the findings are based. The results are therefore tentative and should be viewed with caution. Conclusions: Case series are incorporated in a significant proportion of health technology assessments. Quality criteria have been used to appraise the quality of case series and decide on their inclusion in reviews of studies using this design. In this small series of case studies drawn from HTAs carried out for the NHS HTA programme, little evidence was found to support the use of many of the factors included in quality assessment tools. Importantly, no relationship was found between study size and outcome across the four examples studied. Isolated examples of a potentially important relationship between other methodological factors and outcome were shown, such as blinding of outcome measurement, but these were not shown consistently across the small number of examples studied. This study is based on a very small sample of studies and should therefore be considered as exploratory. Further investigation of the relationship between methodological features and outcome is justified given the frequency of use of case series in health technology assessments. Further research into the methodological features of case series and their outcome is justified in a wider sample of technologies and larger sets of case series. Value of information analyses including case series could be explored. Further exploration of the differences between case series and randomised controlled trial results, preferably using registry or comprehensive case series data, would be valuable. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2005. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVE: to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three methods of inviting women with a long history of non-attendance to undergo cervical screening. METHODS: Randomized controlled trial and cost-effectiveness analysis. In all, 1140 women were identified from routine NHS screening records as having no smear for at least 15 years and randomly allocated to receive a telephone call from a nurse, a letter from a well-known celebrity (Claire Rayner) or letter from the local NHS Cervical Screening Commissioner. Uptake of screening was measured using routine data and attributed to interventions if occurring within three months. Uptake was compared with a control group. Costs of carrying out the interventions were noted from the perspective of the NHS and cost-effectiveness, as cost per additional attender, calculated. RESULTS: Uptake following all interventions was low: telephone call (1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-3.6%); celebrity letter (1.8, 95% CI 0.57-4.0%); commissioner letter (4.6, 95% CI 2.5-7.7%); control group (1.8, 95% CI 0.57-4.0%). There were no significant differences between groups. Telephone intervention was not possible in a quarter of women whose numbers were unlisted. Telephone intervention was the most expensive and least effective of the interventions. The commissioner letter yielded an additional attender within three months at an incremental cost of 23.21 pounds compared with taking no action. CONCLUSIONS: Neither a telephone call from a nurse nor a letter from a celebrity to encourage attendance for cervical screening were effective or cost-effective in women with a prolonged history of non-participation in the screening programme. A letter from the local cervical screening programme commissioner resulted in a small, non-significant increase in uptake. The low cost and ease of implementation of this intervention supports further research into its use in routine practice.

OBJECTIVE: to compare the effectiveness of two second generation endometrial ablation techniques (microwave and thermal balloon endometrial ablation) with first generation techniques of endometrial ablation to treat heavy menstrual bleeding in women. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Library (issue 3, 2002), the National Research Register, MEDLINE (1966 to August 2002), Embase (1980 to August 2002) and Web of Science Proceedings (all years). We also searched reference lists and contacted experts and manufacturers in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials and controlled trials of microwave endometrial ablation and thermal balloon endometrial ablation versus transcervical resection and rollerball ablation, alone or in combination, to treat heavy menstrual bleeding were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted data. As there was considerable clinical and methodological heterogeneity among the studies, meta-analysis was not undertaken and results are presented descriptively. RESULTS: Two randomised controlled trials of microwave endometrial ablation and eight trials (six randomised controlled trials) of thermal balloon endometrial ablation were included in the review. No significant differences were found between first and second generation techniques in terms of amenorrhoea, bleeding patterns, pre-menstrual symptoms, patient satisfaction or quality of life. Microwave endometrial ablation and thermal balloon endometrial ablation had significantly shorter operating and theatre times than first generation techniques. Adverse effects were few with all techniques, but there were fewer peri-operative adverse effects with second generation techniques. CONCLUSION: Microwave endometrial ablation and thermal balloon endometrial ablation are alternatives to first generation techniques for treating heavy menstrual bleeding. No head-to-head trials of microwave endometrial ablation and thermal balloon endometrial ablation have been undertaken and there is not yet enough evidence of differences in clinical effectiveness between these two techniques.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber pacemakers versus single-chamber atrial or single-chamber ventricular pacemakers in the treatment of bradycardia due to sick sinus syndrome (SSS) or atrioventricular block (AVB). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases and relevant Internet sites. Contact with device manufacturers and experts in the field. REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review was carried out of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). The quality of selected studies was appraised using standard frameworks. Meta-analyses, using random effects models, were carried out where appropriate. Limited exploration of heterogeneity was possible. Critical appraisal of economic evaluations was carried out using two frameworks. A decision-analytic model was developed using a Markov approach, to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber versus ventricular or atrial pacing over 5 and 10 years as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: the searches retrieved a systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness published in 2002, four parallel group RCTs and 28 cross-over trials. Dual-chamber pacing was associated with lower rates of atrial fibrillation, particularly in SSS, than ventricular pacing, and prevents pacemaker syndrome. Higher rates of atrial fibrillation were seen with dual-chamber pacing than with atrial pacing. Complications occurred more frequently in dual-chamber pacemaker insertion. The cost of a dual-chamber system, over 5 years, including cost of complications and subsequent clinical events in the population, was estimated to be around 7400 pounds. The overall cost difference between single and dual systems is not large over this period: around 700 pounds more for dual-chamber devices. The cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber compared with ventricular pacing was estimated to be around 8500 pounds per QALY in AVB and 9500 pounds in SSS over 5 years, and around 5500 pounds per QALY in both populations over 10 years. Under more conservative assumptions, the cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber pacing is around 30,000 pounds per QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that, under the base-case assumptions, dual-chamber pacing is likely to be considered cost-effective at levels of willingness to pay that are generally considered acceptable by policy makers. In contrast, atrial pacing may be cost-effective compared with dual-chamber pacing. CONCLUSIONS: Dual-chamber pacing results in small but potentially important benefits in populations with SSS and/or AVB compared with ventricular pacemakers. Pacemaker syndrome is a crucial factor in determining cost-effectiveness; however, difficulties in standardising diagnosis and measurement of severity make it difficult to quantify. Dual-chamber pacing is in common usage in the UK. Recipients are more likely to be younger. Insufficient evidence is currently available to inform policy on specific groups who may benefit most from pacing with dual-chamber devices. Further important research is underway. Outstanding research priorities include the economic evaluation of UKPACE studies of the classification, diagnosis and utility associated with pacemaker syndrome and evidence on the effectiveness of pacemakers in children.

OBJECTIVES: to consider the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pimecrolimus for mild to moderate atopic eczema and tacrolimus for moderate to severe atopic eczema compared with current standard treatment in adults and children. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases. Experts and the manufacturers of these agents were also approached for information. REVIEW METHODS: the systematic review was carried out using standard methodological guidelines and a stringent quality assessment strategy. A state transition (Markov) model was developed to estimate cost--utility of tacrolimus and pimecrolimus separately, compared with current standard practice with topical corticosteroids, (a) as first-line treatment and (b) as second-line treatment. Pimecrolimus was also compared to emollients only. RESULTS: the pimecrolimus trial reports were of varying quality; however when compared with a placebo (emollient), pimecrolimus was found to be more effective and to provide quality of life improvements. There is very little evidence available about pimecrolimus compared with topical corticosteroids. Compared with a placebo (emollient), both 0.03% and 0.1% tacrolimus were found to be more effective. Compared with a mild corticosteroid, 0.03% tacrolimus is more effective in children as measured by a 90% or better improvement in the Physician's Global Evaluation (PGE). Compared with potent topical corticosteroids, no significant difference in effectiveness is seen with 0.1% tacrolimus as measured by a 75% or greater improvement in the PGE. Minor application site adverse effects are common with tacrolimus. However, this did not lead to increased rates of withdrawal from treatment in trial populations. The PenTag economic model demonstrates a large degree of uncertainty, which was explored in both deterministic and stochastic analyses. This is the case for the cost-effectiveness of pimecrolimus and tacrolimus in first- or second-line use compared with topical steroids. In all cases immunosuppressant regimes were estimated to be more costly than alternatives and differences in benefits to be small and subject to considerable uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: There is limited evidence from a small number of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that pimecrolimus is more effective than placebo treatment in controlling mild to moderate atopic eczema. Although greater than for pimecrolimus, the evidence base for tacrolimus in moderate to severe atopic eczema is also limited. At both 0.1% and 0.03% potencies, tacrolimus appears to be more effective than the placebo treatment and mild topical corticosteroids. However, these are not the most clinically relevant comparators. Compared with potent topical corticosteroids, no significant difference was shown. Short-term adverse effects with both immunosuppressants are relatively common, but appear to be mild. Experience of long-term use of the agents is lacking so the risk of rare but serious adverse effects remains unknown. No conclusions can be confidently drawn about the cost-effectiveness of pimecrolimus or tacrolimus compared with active topical corticosteroid comparators. Areas for further research should focus on the effectiveness and safety of the treatments through good-quality RCTs and further economic analysis.

The objective of this article was to review the methods used to obtain quality-of-life (utility) weights reported in assessments carried out for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE).The design of the review was a cross-sectional survey. Health technology assessment (HTA) reports published on the NICE website up to May 2003 were reviewed. Data were extracted on the following: the approach to utility estimation (direct or indirect), how health states were described for indirect estimation, valuation techniques used (standard gamble [SG], time trade-off [TTO], visual analogue scale [VAS], etc.), whether uncertainty in utility estimates was explored in cost-utility analyses, and whether utility values were identified as a priority for further research by assessment authors.Fifty-six assessments were reviewed, of which 28 reported 45 cost-utility analyses. There was striking variation in the values used to describe different health states. Data from patients were used in 15 (33%) analyses, from the general public in 10 (22%) and from clinicians in 4 (9%). In 16 (36%) cases, the source for utility estimates was unclear. Health states were described using a range of generic and disease-specific measures, although the EQ-5D was used most frequently. In 25 analyses (56%), the valuation technique used was not reported. TTO was used in 11 (24%), SG in 3 (7%), magnitude estimation in 5 (11%) and VAS in 1 (2%). Sensitivity analyses based on utility values were reported in 25 cases (56%), more commonly in reports of analyses carried out by independent teams than technology sponsors although this may be subject to reporting bias. Further research into quality of life was recommended in 17 (61%) of the 28 assessment reports that contained at least one cost-utility analysis. Greater transparency and consistency are required in reporting the methods used to obtain quality-of-life weights in cost-utility analyses, and better sources of data are required. Methodological variation results in important differences in values. Therefore, caution must be exercised when comparing the results of different cost-utility analyses.

OBJECTIVE: to assess the cost effectiveness of the second-generation surgical treatments for heavy menstrual bleeding (microwave and thermal balloon endometrial ablation) compared with existing endometrial ablation techniques (transcervical resection and rollerball, alone or in combination) and hysterectomy. DESIGN: a state transition (Markov) cost-utility economic model. POPULATION: Women with heavy menstrual bleeding. METHODS: a Markov model was developed using spreadsheet software. Transition probabilities, costs and quality of life data were obtained from a systematic review of effectiveness undertaken by the authors, from published sources, and expert opinion. Cost data were obtained from the literature and from a NHS trust hospital. Indirect comparison of thermal balloon endometrial ablation versus microwave endometrial ablation or either second-generation endometrial ablation method versus hysterectomy, and comparison of second-generation versus first-generation techniques were carried out from the perspective of health service payers. The effects of uncertainty were explored through extensive one-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost effectiveness ratios based on cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, and cost effectiveness acceptability curves. RESULTS: Compared with first-generation techniques, both microwave and thermal balloon endometrial ablation cost less and accrued more QALYs. Hysterectomy was more expensive, but accrued more QALYs than all endometrial ablation methods. Baseline results showed that differences between microwave endometrial ablation and thermal balloon endometrial ablation were slight. Sensitivity analyses showed that small changes in values may have a marked effect on cost effectiveness. Probabilistic simulation highlighted the uncertainty in comparisons between different endometrial ablation options, particularly between second-generation techniques. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations in available data, the analysis suggests that second-generation techniques are likely to be more cost effective than first-generation techniques in most cases. Hysterectomy, where a woman finds this option acceptable, continues to be a very cost effective procedure compared with all endometrial ablation methods.

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the effectiveness of imatinib as first-line treatment for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) compared with interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha), hydroxyurea and bone marrow transplantation (BMT), and the cost-effectiveness of imatinib compared with IFN-alpha and hydroxyurea. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases. REVIEW METHODS: Selected studies and full-text articles were screened and rigorously selected. Survival was the key outcome measure. Surrogate outcome measures included haematological (blood) response and cytogenetic (bone marrow) response (CR). As no published cost-effectiveness studies were found that compared imatinib and IFN-alpha, an independent Markov model was constructed and this was compared with models submitted to the National Institute for Clinical Excellence by the manufacturer of imatinib. RESULTS: Intention-to-treat analysis showed that imatinib was associated with complete CR at 12 months follow-up of 68% compared with 20% for the IFN-alpha plus Ara-C group. The estimated proportion of people taking imatinib who had not progressed to accelerated or blast phases at 12 months was 98.5%, and 93.1% for IFN-alpha plus Ara-C. Overall survival was not statistically significantly different. Withdrawal due to side-effects was 2% for imatinib and 5.6% for IFN-alpha plus Ara-C. Cross-over due to intolerance was 0.7% and 22.8% for imatinib and for IFN-alpha plus Ara-C, respectively. Quality of life was better in the imatinib group than the IFN-alpha group when assessed at 1, 3 and 6 months. Median survival across the four IFN-alpha versus hydroxyurea studies was 66 and 56.2 months, respectively. Median complete CR was 6% for IFN-alpha and 0 for hydroxyurea. Median withdrawal due to side-effects was 24% and 4% for IFN-alpha and hydroxyurea, respectively. Four out of the five studies comparing BMT and IFN-alpha showed a long-term survival advantage for BMT over IFN-alpha, but a short-term disadvantage. In four of the five studies comparing BMT and IFN-alpha, median survival had not yet been reached in the BMT groups in 6--10 years. Median survival in the IFN-alpha arms ranged from 5.2 to 7 years. The BMT group gained a survival advantage over IFN-alpha at 3--5.5 years. In the BMT group death due to transplant-related complications ranged from 36 to 45%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of imatinib compared with IFN-alpha from the independent model was GBP26,180 per quality-adjusted-life-years (QALY) gained and was relatively robust. Imatinib was less cost-effective than hydroxyurea with an ICER of GBP86,934. CONCLUSIONS: Imatinib appears to be more effective than current standard drug treatments in terms of cytogenetic response and progression-free survival, with fewer side-effects. However, there is uncertainty concerning longer term outcomes, the development of resistance to imatinib, the duration of response and the place of imatinib relative to BMT. New issues are continually arising, such as optimal management pathways and combination therapies. Recommendations for research include: long-term follow-up data from the first- and second-line imatinib trials; investigation into specific subgroups, e.g. high-risk patients, the elderly, children or those eligible for BMT; long-term comparisons of imatinib with BMT performed in early stages of CML; the use of imatinib in combination with other therapies, and further detailed economic studies. Investigation of the impact of CML and imatinib on quality of life is also important.

Objectives: to look at the processes and outcomes of identification and prioritisation in both national and regional R&D programmes in health and elsewhere, drawing on experiences of success and failure. Also to identify the barriers to, and facilitators of, meaningful participation by consumers in research identification and prioritisation. Data sources: Electronic databases and interviews with UK consumers and research programme managers. Review methods: a framework was devised for examining the diverse ways of involving consumers in research. It identified key distinguishing features as: the types of consumers involved; whether consumers or researchers initiated the involvement; the degree of consumer involvement (consultation, collaboration or consumer control); forums for communication (e.g. committees, surveys, focus groups); methods for decision-making; and the practicalities for implementation. Context (institutional, geographical and historical setting) and underpinning theories were considered as important variables for analysing examples of consumer involvement. This innovative framework was then applied to the review data from reports selected for inclusion and interviews. Results: the study found 286 documents explicitly mentioning consumer involvement in identifying or prioritising research topics. of these, 91 were general discussions, some of which included a theoretical analysis or a critique of research agendas from a consumer perspective, 160 reported specific efforts to include consumers in identifying or prioritising research topics and a further 51 reported consumers identifying or prioritising research topics in the course of other work. Detailed reports of 87 specific examples were identified. Most of this literature was descriptive reports by researchers who were key actors in involving consumers. A few reports were written by consumer participants. Fewer still were by independent researchers. Our conclusions are therefore not based on rigorous research, but implications for policy are drawn from individual reports and comparative analyses. Conclusions: Productive methods for involving consumers require appropriate skills, resources and time to develop and follow appropriate working practices. The more that consumers are involved in determining how this is to be done, the more research programmes will learn from consumers and about how to work with them. Further success might be expected if research programmes embarking on collaborations approach well-networked consumers and provide them with information, resources and support to empower them in key roles for consulting their peers and prioritising topics. To be worthwhile, consultations should engage consumer groups directly and repeatedly in facilitated debate; when discussing health services research, more resources and time are required if consumers are drawn from groups whose main focus of interest is not health. These barriers can largely be overcome with good leadership, purposeful outreach to consumers, investing time and effort in good communication, training and support and thereby building good working relationships and building on experience. Organised consumer groups capable of identifying research priorities also need to find ways of introducing their ideas into research programmes. Further research is suggested to develop and evaluate different training methods, information and education and other support for consumers and those wishing to involve them; to address the barriers to consumers' ideas influencing research agendas; and to carry out prospective comparative studies of different methods for involving consumers. Research about collective decision-making would also be further advanced by addressing the processes and outcomes of consensus development that involves consumers. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2004. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVES: to look at the processes and outcomes of identification and prioritisation in both national and regional R&D programmes in health and elsewhere, drawing on experiences of success and failure. Also to identify the barriers to, and facilitators of, meaningful participation by consumers in research identification and prioritisation. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases and interviews with UK consumers and research programme managers. REVIEW METHODS: a framework was devised for examining the diverse ways of involving consumers in research. It identified key distinguishing features as: the types of consumers involved; whether consumers or researchers initiated the involvement; the degree of consumer involvement (consultation, collaboration or consumer control); forums for communication (e.g. committees, surveys, focus groups); methods for decision-making; and the practicalities for implementation. Context (institutional, geographical and historical setting) and underpinning theories were considered as important variables for analysing examples of consumer involvement. This innovative framework was then applied to the review data from reports selected for inclusion and interviews. RESULTS: the study found 286 documents explicitly mentioning consumer involvement in identifying or prioritising research topics. of these, 91 were general discussions, some of which included a theoretical analysis or a critique of research agendas from a consumer perspective, 160 reported specific efforts to include consumers in identifying or prioritising research topics and a further 51 reported consumers identifying or prioritising research topics in the course of other work. Detailed reports of 87 specific examples were identified. Most of this literature was descriptive reports by researchers who were key actors in involving consumers. A few reports were written by consumer participants. Fewer still were by independent researchers. Our conclusions are therefore not based on rigorous research, but implications for policy are drawn from individual reports and comparative analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Productive methods for involving consumers require appropriate skills, resources and time to develop and follow appropriate working practices. The more that consumers are involved in determining how this is to be done, the more research programmes will learn from consumers and about how to work with them. Further success might be expected if research programmes embarking on collaborations approach well-networked consumers and provide them with information, resources and support to empower them in key roles for consulting their peers and prioritising topics. To be worthwhile, consultations should engage consumer groups directly and repeatedly in facilitated debate; when discussing health services research, more resources and time are required if consumers are drawn from groups whose main focus of interest is not health. These barriers can largely be overcome with good leadership, purposeful outreach to consumers, investing time and effort in good communication, training and support and thereby building good working relationships and building on experience. Organised consumer groups capable of identifying research priorities also need to find ways of introducing their ideas into research programmes. Further research is suggested to develop and evaluate different training methods, information and education and other support for consumers and those wishing to involve them; to address the barriers to consumers' ideas influencing research agendas; and to carry out prospective comparative studies of different methods for involving consumers. Research about collective decision-making would also be further advanced by addressing the processes and outcomes of consensus development that involves consumers.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C is a major public health problem of increasing importance among injecting drug users, among whom screening has been proposed. We therefore estimated the cost utility of screening for hepatitis C infection among people with a history of injecting drug use in contact with drug misuse services. METHODS: a spreadsheet-based model of screening using ELISA followed by polymerase chain reaction tests and treatment using combination therapy with interferon alpha and ribavirin was developed. Parameters were informed by literature review, expert opinion and a survey of current screening practice in England. A range of one-way sensitivity analyses were carried out to explore uncertainty in the results for cost effectiveness. RESULTS: Screening for HCV is likely to yield benefits in the population concerned at around 28,000 pounds per quality adjusted life year. This estimate is reasonably stable when explored in extensive one-way sensitivity analysis but appeared sensitive to the proportion of HCV positive people who accept biopsy or treatment and the utility gains associated with successful drug treatment. Important other areas of uncertainty include the effects of mortality from other causes on the cost effectiveness of screening in this population and the time at which symptoms would have led to presentation in the absence of a screening programme. CONCLUSION: Screening for HCV in this population is moderately cost effective, although some caution must remain in accepting this estimate given the current uncertainties in this field, and further research is required.

BACKGROUND: Prisons are a potential setting for hepatitis C screening. This study describes prisoner flows through such screening for all prisoners entering Dartmoor prison between 1 January 1998 and 30 June 2001. METHODS: We identified numbers at each step of the screening pathway, from screening to result, referral, biopsy and outcome. We describe the proportions of those screened who were seropositive; seropositives who were confirmed virus-positive; virus-positive cases attending for biopsy; and virus-positive cases eligible for treatment. RESULTS: of 3034 entries into Dartmoor, 12 per cent were screened, with 16 per cent of these seropositive. Seventynine per cent of seropositive prisoners with a polymerase chain reaction result were confirmed virus-positive, and 27 per cent of these prisoners had a biopsy. Two prisoners were eligible for treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Screening uptake is low. Attrition rates are high, especially at the referral interface between the prison and specialist care. Finally, the yield of individuals eligible for treatment is low, at 7/1000 tested.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of microwave endometrial ablation (MEA) and thermal balloon endometrial ablation (TBEA) for heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB), compared with the existing (first-generation) endometrial ablation (EA) techniques of transcervical resection (TCRE) and rollerball (RB) ablation, and hysterectomy. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases, bibliographies of articles, and also experts in the field and relevant industry bodies were asked to provide information. REVIEW METHODS: a detailed search strategy was carried out to identify systematic reviews and controlled trials of MEA and TBEA versus first-generation techniques for EA. In addition to electronic database searching, reference lists were hand-searched and information sought from manufacturers of EA devices and by experts in the field. A deterministic Markov model was developed to assess cost-effectiveness. Data for the model were taken from a range of sources. RESULTS: the systematic review of first-generation EA techniques versus hysterectomy found that EA offered an alternative to hysterectomy for HMB, with fewer complications and a shorter recovery period. Satisfaction and effectiveness were high for both MEA and TBEA. Costs were lower with EA although the difference narrows over time. Second-generation EA techniques are an alternative treatment to first-generation techniques for HMB, and first-generation techniques are known to offer an alternative to hysterectomy. Although no trials of second-generation techniques and hysterectomy have been undertaken, it seems reasonable to assume that second-generation techniques also offer an alternative surgical treatment. Using the model to assess cost-effectiveness, costs were very slightly higher for MEA when compared to TBEA, and differences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were negligible. For MEA compared with transcervical resection of the endometrium (TCRE) and RB ablation, costs were slightly lower with MEA and MEA accrued very slightly more QALYs. Compared with hysterectomy, MEA costs less and accrues slightly fewer QALYs. For TBEA compared with TCRE and RB ablation, costs were lower with TBEA and TBEA accrued slightly more QALYs. Compared with hysterectomy, TBEA costs moderately less and accrues moderately fewer QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, there were few significant differences between the outcomes of first- and second-generation techniques including bleeding, satisfaction and QoL measures and repeat surgery rates. Second-generation techniques had significantly shorter operating and theatre times and there appear to be fewer serious perioperative adverse effects with second-generation techniques and postoperative effects are similar. Compared with hysterectomy, TCRE and RB are quicker to perform and result in shorter hospitalisation and faster return to work. Hysterectomy results in more adverse effects and is more expensive, although the need for retreatment leads this difference to decrease over time. Satisfaction with hysterectomy is initially higher, but there is no significant difference after 2 years. The economic model suggests that second-generation techniques are more cost-effective than first-generation techniques of EA for HMB. Both TBEA and MEA appear to be less costly than hysterectomy, although the latter results in more QALYs. Further research is suggested to make direct comparisons of the cost-effectiveness of second-generation EA techniques, to carry out longer term follow-up for all methods of EA in RCTs, and to develop more sophisticated modelling studies. Further research is also recommended into HMB to establish health-state utility values, its surgical treatment, convalescence, complications of treatment, symptoms and patient satisfaction.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: to estimate the cost utility (cost per QALY) of screening for hepatitis C (HCV) infection in people attending genito-urinary medicine clinics in England. METHODS: an epidemiological model of screening and diagnosis was combined with a Markov chain model of treatment with combination therapy to estimate cost utility. Parameters for the model were informed by literature review, expert opinion and a survey of current screening practice. RESULTS: the base case estimate was about pound 85,000 per QALY. Selective screening is more cost effective. If screening is restricted to only 20% or 10% of attenders, cost utility is estimated as pound 39,647 and pound 34,288 per QALY. If screening is restricted only to those with a history of injecting drug use, cost utility would be pound 27,138 per QALY. Estimates are particularly sensitive to acceptance rates for screening and treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Universal screening for HCV in GUM clinics is unlikely to be cost effective. There is limited evidence to support screening of people other than those with a history of injecting drug use and even this policy should be considered with some care and in the context of further research.

Objectives: to provide a systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) for the removal of nasal polyps. Data sources: Searches of electronic databases, websites and reference lists were made to identify relevant studies. Review methods; an extensive search was performed to identify all articles where FESS is used for the excision of nasal polyps. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion according to predefined criteria. Comparative studies were included if they were primary research, focused on FESS for the removal of nasal polyps, reported patient relevant outcomes and were published in English. In addition, case series studies were included if they met the above criteria and enrolled more than 50 patients with polyps. Data were then extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. A structured form was used to assess the internal and external validity of included studies. Comparative data were reported where available. Excluded case series and case reports were grouped and described. A group of nine ear, nose and throat (ENT) experts were selected, then using the literature and their own experience, they generated a list of priority research questions. Existing economic evaluations were sought and described. Results: of the 33 studies included, the randomised controlled trials and controlled trials reported overall symptomatic improvement that ranged from 78 to 88% for FESS compared with 43 to 84% for similar techniques (including polypectomy, Caldwell-Luc and intranasal ethmoidectomy). Disease recurrence was 8% for FESS compared with 14% for Caldwell-Luc and polyp recurrence was 28% for endoscopic ethmoidectomy compared with 35% for polypectomy. Revision surgery was reported in one study only and was the same for FESS and Caldwell-Luc procedures. Percentage of overall complications was reported in only one comparative study and was 1.4% for FESS compared with 0.8% for conventional procedures. The case series studies reported overall symptomatic improvement for patients with nasal polyps ranging from 37 to 99% (median 89%). For the mixed patient groups (with and without polypoid disease) overall symptomatic improvement ranged from 40 to 98% (median 88%). Total complications in the case series studies ranged from 22.4 to 0.3% (median 6%). Conclusions: the majority of studies report that symptoms improve following FESS with relatively few complications; however, only a small proportion of evidence is comparative. Results from non-comparative studies do not inform the choices that need to be made by ENT surgeons and commissioners. Health economics data are also lacking and therefore cannot inform these decisions. FESS may offer some advantages in effectiveness over comparative techniques, but there is enormous variation in the range of results reported and there are severe methodological limitations. There is a clear need for quality-controlled trials in order to answer questions regarding the effectiveness of FESS. A number of priority research questions from a selection of ENT surgeons within the UK are identified and presented.

Objectives: to provide a systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) for the removal of nasal polyps. Data sources: Searches of electronic databases, websites and reference lists were made to identify relevant studies. Review methods; an extensive search was performed to identify all articles where FESS is used for the excision of nasal polyps. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion according to predefined criteria. Comparative studies were included if they were primary research, focused on FESS for the removal of nasal polyps, reported patient relevant outcomes and were published in English. In addition, case series studies were included if they met the above criteria and enrolled more than 50 patients with polyps. Data were then extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. A structured form was used to assess the internal and external validity of included studies. Comparative data were reported where available. Excluded case series and case reports were grouped and described. A group of nine ear, nose and throat (ENT) experts were selected, then using the literature and their own experience, they generated a list of priority research questions. Existing economic evaluations were sought and described. Results: of the 33 studies included, the randomised controlled trials and controlled trials reported overall symptomatic improvement that ranged from 78 to 88% for FESS compared with 43 to 84% for similar techniques (including polypectomy, Caldwell-Luc and intranasal ethmoidectomy). Disease recurrence was 8% for FESS compared with 14% for Caldwell-Luc and polyp recurrence was 28% for endoscopic ethmoidectomy compared with 35% for polypectomy. Revision surgery was reported in one study only and was the same for FESS and Caldwell-Luc procedures. Percentage of overall complications was reported in only one comparative study and was 1.4% for FESS compared with 0.8% for conventional procedures. The case series studies reported overall symptomatic improvement for patients with nasal polyps ranging from 37 to 99% (median 89%). For the mixed patient groups (with and without polypoid disease) overall symptomatic improvement ranged from 40 to 98% (median 88%). Total complications in the case series studies ranged from 22.4 to 0.3% (median 6%). Conclusions: the majority of studies report that symptoms improve following FESS with relatively few complications; however, only a small proportion of evidence is comparative. Results from non-comparative studies do not inform the choices that need to be made by ENT surgeons and commissioners. Health economics data are also lacking and therefore cannot inform these decisions. FESS may offer some advantages in effectiveness over comparative techniques, but there is enormous variation in the range of results reported and there are severe methodological limitations. There is a clear need for quality-controlled trials in order to answer questions regarding the effectiveness of FESS. A number of priority research questions from a selection of ENT surgeons within the UK are identified and presented.

OBJECTIVES: to provide a systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) for the removal of nasal polyps. DATA SOURCES: Searches of electronic databases, websites and reference lists were made to identify relevant studies. REVIEW METHODS: an extensive search was performed to identify all articles where FESS is used for the excision of nasal polyps. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion according to predefined criteria. Comparative studies were included if they were primary research, focused on FESS for the removal of nasal polyps, reported patient relevant outcomes and were published in English. In addition, case series studies were included if they met the above criteria and enrolled more than 50 patients with polyps. Data were then extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. A structured form was used to assess the internal and external validity of included studies. Comparative data were reported where available. Excluded case series and case reports were grouped and described. A group of nine ear, nose and throat (ENT) experts were selected, then using the literature and their own experience, they generated a list of priority research questions. Existing economic evaluations were sought and described. RESULTS: of the 33 studies included, the randomised controlled trials and controlled trials reported overall symptomatic improvement that ranged from 78 to 88% for FESS compared with 43 to 84% for similar techniques (including polypectomy, Caldwell-Luc and intranasal ethmoidectomy). Disease recurrence was 8% for FESS compared with 14% for Caldwell-Luc and polyp recurrence was 28% for endoscopic ethmoidectomy compared with 35% for polypectomy. Revision surgery was reported in one study only and was the same for FESS and Caldwell-Luc procedures. Percentage of overall complications was reported in only one comparative study and was 1.4% for FESS compared with 0.8% for conventional procedures. The case series studies reported overall symptomatic improvement for patients with nasal polyps ranging from 37 to 99% (median 89%). For the mixed patient groups (with and without polypoid disease) overall symptomatic improvement ranged from 40 to 98% (median 88%). Total complications in the case series studies ranged from 22.4 to 0.3% (median 6%). CONCLUSIONS: the majority of studies report that symptoms improve following FESS with relatively few complications; however, only a small proportion of evidence is comparative. Results from non-comparative studies do not inform the choices that need to be made by ENT surgeons and commissioners. Health economics data are also lacking and therefore cannot inform these decisions. FESS may offer some advantages in effectiveness over comparative techniques, but there is enormous variation in the range of results reported and there are severe methodological limitations. There is a clear need for quality-controlled trials in order to answer questions regarding the effectiveness of FESS. A number of priority research questions from a selection of ENT surgeons within the UK are identified and presented.

To provide a systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) for the removal of nasal polyps. Searches of electronic databases, websites and reference lists were made to identify relevant studies. An extensive search was performed to identify all articles where FESS is used for the excision of nasal polyps. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion according to predefined criteria. Comparative studies were included if they were primary research, focused on FESS for the removal of nasal polyps, reported patient relevant outcomes and were published in English. In addition, case series studies were included if they met the above criteria and enrolled more than 50 patients with polyps. Data were then extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. A structured form was used to assess the internal and external validity of included studies. Comparative data were reported where available. Excluded case series and case reports were grouped and described. A group of nine ear, nose and throat (ENT) experts were selected, then using the literature and their own experience, they generated a list of priority research questions. Existing economic evaluations were sought and described. of the 33 studies included, the randomised controlled trials and controlled trials reported overall symptomatic improvement that ranged from 78 to 88% for FESS compared with 43 to 84% for similar techniques (including polypectomy, Caldwell-Luc and intranasal ethmoidectomy). Disease recurrence was 8% for FESS compared with 14% for Caldwell-Luc and polyp recurrence was 28% for endoscopic ethmoidectomy compared with 35% for polypectomy. Revision surgery was reported in one study only and was the same for FESS and Caldwell-Luc procedures. Percentage of overall complications was reported in only one comparative study and was 1.4% for FESS compared with 0.8% for conventional procedures. The case series studies reported overall symptomatic improvement for patients with nasal polyps ranging from 37 to 99% (median 89%). For the mixed patient groups (with and without polypoid disease) overall symptomatic improvement ranged from 40 to 98% (median 88%). Total complications in the case series studies ranged from 22.4 to 0.3% (median 6%). The majority of studies report that symptoms improve following FESS with relatively few complications; however, only a small proportion of evidence is comparative. Results from non-comparative studies do not inform the choices that need to be made by ENT surgeons and commissioners. Health economics data are also lacking and therefore cannot inform these decisions. FESS may offer some advantages in effectiveness over comparative techniques, but there is enormous variation in the range of results reported and there are severe methodological limitations. There is a clear need for quality-controlled trials in order to answer questions regarding the effectiveness of FESS. A number of priority research questions from a selection of ENT surgeons within the UK are identified and presented.

OBJECTIVE: to estimate the cost utility of treatment with combination therapy (ribavirin and interferon alpha) for hepatitis C compared with no treatment or monotherapy (interferon alpha) based on UK costs and clinical management. DESIGN: Decision analysis model using a Markov approach to simulate disease progression. SETTING: UK secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: Hypothetical cohort of patients with hepatitis C. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: Discounted cost per QALY for combination therapy over no treatment was 3791 pounds. Cost per QALY varied between 1646 pounds and 9170 pounds according to subgroup, with the lowest ratios being for genotype 2 or 3, women, those aged less than 40 years, and those with moderate hepatitis. The discounted cost per QALY of the combination over monotherapy was 3485 pounds. Similar findings were shown for subgroups as for the comparison with no treatment. One way sensitivity analysis showed that while drug costs were more important in the analysis than assumptions about disease progression or costs of treating hepatitis C disease, the results were robust to large changes in underlying assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Combination therapy for hepatitis C is a cost effective treatment option and is superior to monotherapy. Considerable uncertainties remain over the appropriate management strategies in the populations excluded from randomised controlled trials and in whom treatment is currently being considered in the UK.

The NHS Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme runs an annual process of identifying suggestions for health technology assessment. The objective of this paper is to describe and evaluate the relative importance of the different sources used by the program in 1998 to identify potential priorities. There were four different sources: a) a widespread consultation of healthcare commissioners, providers and consumers; b) research recommendations from systematic reviews; c) reconsidering previous research priorities which had not been taken forward for funding; and d) horizon scanning. Collectively, the four sources generated just over 1,100 HTA suggestions. By far the largest source of suggestions and priorities was the widespread consultation. However, the success rate of this source, in terms of being commissioned, was low. Research recommendations from systematic reviews provided the second largest source of priorities and the best success rate of all sources. Value was found from different sources for different healthcare areas.

OBJECTIVES: to model the likely cost utility of the prevalence round of a screening programme for hepatitis C (HCV) in intravenous drug users (IVDUs) in contact with services in the South and West health region of the UK. METHODS: Information on the prevalence of HCV, performance of diagnostic tests, and effectiveness of interferon alpha (IFN alpha) for treatment of chronic hepatitis were brought together with estimates of the costs of service provision. A simple spreadsheet model was used to estimate cost utility (cost/quality adjusted life year (QALY)). Assumptions (including use of ribavirin plus IFN alpha combination therapy) were tested by a one way sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: About 5600 IVDUs live in the region. A combination of enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing has high sensitivity and specificity for detecting HCV. There is excellent evidence that IFN alpha is effective in producing sustained normalisation of liver function and, by inference, eradicating HCV. Evidence for long term benefits comes from modelling studies based on progression of HBV or non-A, non-B hepatitis and is considerably less robust. The cost of the prevalence round of screening in IVDUs would be about 700,000 Pounds and is likely to identify about 1400 people, of whom about 270 would be eligible for treatment and 20 would respond to IFN alpha. This gives a cost/QALY of 9300 Pounds for the screening programme. However, much uncertainty around the estimates used to inform the cost utility calculation limits confidence in the value of screening IVDUs for HCV. Sensitivity analysis shows a range of possible cost utility from 3333 Pounds to 81,438 Pounds. Estimates are particularly sensitive to adherence to liver biopsy and treatment and to discounting of benefits. CONCLUSIONS: Although potentially cost effective, many important uncertainties surround the assumptions used to estimate the long term effectiveness of screening and treatment. There is insufficient evidence to inform policy development and further research is required in this rapidly changing field.