BACKGROUND: it is a stated ambition of many healthcare systems to eliminate delayed transfers of care (DTOCs) between acute and step-down community services. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to demonstrate how, counter to intuition, pursual of such a policy is likely to be uneconomical, as it would require large amounts of community capacity to accommodate even the rarest of demand peaks, leaving much capacity unused for much of the time. METHODS: Some standard results from queueing theory-a mathematical discipline for considering the dynamics of queues and queueing systems-are used to provide a model of patient flow from the acute to community setting. While queueing models have a track record of application in healthcare, they have not before been used to address this question. RESULTS: Results show that 'eliminating' DTOCs is a false economy: the additional community costs required are greater than the possible acute cost saving. While a substantial proportion of DTOCs can be attributed to inefficient use of resources, the remainder can be considered economically essential to ensuring cost-efficient service operation. For England's National Health Service (NHS), our modelling estimates annual cost savings of £117m if DTOCs are reduced to the 12% of current levels that can be regarded as economically essential. CONCLUSION: This study discourages the use of 'zero DTOC' targets and instead supports an assessment based on the specific characteristics of the healthcare system considered.

OBJECTIVES: While there has been significant research on the pressures facing acute hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been less interest in downstream community services which have also been challenged in meeting demand. This study aimed to estimate the theoretical cost-optimal capacity requirement for 'step down' intermediate care services within a major healthcare system in England, at a time when considerable uncertainty remained regarding vaccination uptake and the easing of societal restrictions. METHODS: Demand for intermediate care was projected using an epidemiological model (for COVID-19 demand) and regressing upon public mobility (for non-COVID-19 demand). These were inputted to a computer simulation model of patient flow from acute discharge readiness to bedded and home-based Discharge to Assess (D2A) intermediate care services. Cost-optimal capacity was defined as that which yielded the lowest total cost of intermediate care provision and corresponding acute discharge delays. RESULTS: Increased intermediate care capacity is likely to bring about lower system-level costs, with the additional D2A investment more than offset by substantial reductions in costly acute discharge delays (leading also to improved patient outcome and experience). Results suggest that completely eliminating acute 'bed blocking' is unlikely economical (requiring large amounts of downstream capacity), and that health systems should instead target an appropriate tolerance based upon the specific characteristics of the pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Computer modelling can be a valuable asset for determining optimal capacity allocation along the complex care pathway. With results supporting a Business Case for increased downstream capacity, this study demonstrates how modelling can be applied in practice and provides a blueprint for use alongside the freely-available model code.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reproduction number has become an essential parameter for monitoring disease transmission across settings and guiding interventions. The UK published weekly estimates of the reproduction number in the UK starting in May 2020 which are formed from multiple independent estimates. In this paper, we describe methods used to estimate the time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number for the UK. We used multiple data sources and estimated a serial interval distribution from published studies. We describe regional variability and how estimates evolved during the early phases of the outbreak, until the relaxing of social distancing measures began to be introduced in early July. Our analysis is able to guide localized control and provides a longitudinal example of applying these methods over long timescales. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

Worldwide eradication of chronic hepatitis B and C viruses by 2030 is a stated goal of the World Health Organization, UK government and the European Union. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening vs opportunistic screening for hepatitis B and C among migrant populations in the UK. Results of a previous clinical trial (HepFREE) carried out in London and Bradford were used to develop a combined decision tree and Markov simulation model. Despite a low response to invitations for vaccination, and a heterogeneous level of response between communities of different ethnic composition, this analysis shows that incentivised targeted screening is cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds over £8540 per incremental quality-adjusted life year over a lifetime. Furthermore, probabilistic analysis of input parameter uncertainty suggests that the intervention has a greater than 95% probability of being cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds under £30 000 per incremental quality-adjusted life year. These results strongly suggest that targeted screening should play a key part in the eradication of the hepatitis B and C viruses.

Delay or failure to view test results in a hospital setting can lead to delayed diagnosis, risk of patient harm, and represents inefficiency. Factors influencing this were investigated to identify how timeliness and completeness of test review could be improved through an evidence-based redesign of the use of clinical test review software.A cross-section of all abnormal hematology and biochemistry results which were published on a digital test review platform over a 3-year period were investigated. The time it took for clinicians to view these results, and the results that were not viewed within 30 days, were analyzed relative to time of the week, the detailed type of test, and an indicator of patient record data quality.The majority of results were viewed within 90 min, and 93.9% of these results viewed on the digital platform within 30 days. There was significant variation in results review throughout the week, shown to be due to an interplay between technical and clinical workflow factors. Routine results were less likely to be reviewed, as were those with patient record data quality issues.The evidence suggests that test result review would be improved by stream-lining access to the result platform, differentiating between urgent and routine results, improving handover of responsibility for result review, and improving search for temporary patient records. Altering the timing of phlebotomy rounds and a review of the appropriateness of routine test requests at the weekend may also improve result review rates.

ObjectiveThe Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists has advised that consolidation of birth centres, where reasonable, into birth centres of at least 6000 admissions per year should allow constant consultant presence. Currently, only 17% of mothers attend such birth centres. The objective of this work was to examine the feasibility of consolidation of birth centres, from the perspectives of birth centre size and travel times for mothers.DesignComputer-based optimisation.SettingHospital-based births.Population or sample1.91 million admissions in 2014–2016.MethodsA multiple-objective genetic algorithm.Main outcome measuresTravel time for mothers and size of birth centres.ResultsCurrently, with 161 birth centres, 17% of women attend a birth centre with at least 6000 admissions per year. We estimate that 95% of women have a travel time of 30 min or less. An example scenario, with 100 birth centres, could provide 75% of care in birth centres with at least 6000 admissions per year, with 95% of women travelling 35 min or less to their closest birth centre. Planning at local level leads to reduced ability to meet admission and travel time targets.ConclusionsWhile it seems unrealistic to have all births in birth centres with at least 6000 admissions per year, it appears realistic to increase the percentage of mothers attending this type of birth centre from 17% to about 75% while maintaining reasonable travel times. Planning at a local level leads to suboptimal solutions.

BACKGROUND: the prevalence of viral hepatitis (hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus) in migrants is higher than among the general population in many high-income countries. We aimed to determine whether incentivising and supporting primary-care physicians in areas with a high density of migrants increases the numbers of adult migrants screened for viral hepatitis. METHODS: HepFREE was a multicentre, open, cluster-randomised controlled trial in general practices in areas of the UK with a high density of migrants (Bradford, Yorkshire, and northeast and southeast London). Participants were adult patients (aged 18 years or older) in primary care, who had been identified as a first or second generation migrant from a high-risk country. General practices were randomly assigned (1:2:2:2:2) to an opportunistic screening (control) group or to one of four targeted screening (interventional) groups: standard (ie, hospital-based) care and a standard invitation letter; standard care and an enhanced invitation letter; community care and a standard invitation letter; or community care and an enhanced invitation letter. In control screening, general practitioners (GPs) were given a teaching session on viral hepatitis and were asked to test all registered migrants. In the intervention, GPs were paid a nominal sum for setting up searches of records, reimbursed for signed consent forms, and supported by a dedicated clinician. Patients who were eligible for testing and tested positive for viral hepatitis in the intervention groups were eligible to enrol in a second embedded trial of community versus hospital based care. The primary outcomes were the proportion of patients eligible for screening, the proportion of those eligible who were sent an invitation letter in the intervention groups, the uptake of viral hepatitis screening (in the intention-to-treat population), the proportion of patients who tested positive for viral hepatitis, the proportion who complied with treatment, and the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN54828633. FINDINGS: Recruitment and testing ran from Oct 31, 2013, to Feb 4, 2017, and each practice recruited for 18 consecutive calendar months. We approached 70 general practices in three areas with a high density of migrants, of which 63 general practices agreed to participate. Five practices withdrew and 58 practices were randomly assigned: eight to control and 50 to an intervention. In control practices, 26 046 (38·4%) of 67 820 patients who were initially registered were eligible for testing, as were 152 321 (43·3%) of 351 710 patients in the interventional groups in London and Bradford. of 51 773 randomly selected eligible patients in the intervention groups in London and Bradford, letters were sent to 43 585 (84·2%) patients. In the eight control general practices, screening was taken up by 543 (1·7%) of 31 738 eligible participants, which included 5692 newly registered patients. However, in the 50 general practices that used the intervention, screening was taken up by 11 386 (19·5%) of 58 512 eligible participants (including 6739 newly registered patients; incidence rate ratio 3·70, 95% CI 1·30-10·51; p=0·014) and this intervention was cost-effective. 720 (4·5%) of 15 844 patients who received a standard letter versus 1032 (3·7%) of 28 095 patients who received the enhanced letter were tested (0·70, 0·38-1·31; p=0·26). In the control group, 17 patients tested positive for viral hepatitis, as did 220 patients (one with a co-infection) in the intervention groups. In the embedded study, 220 patients were randomly assigned to either hospital-based care or community care; 80 (87·9%) of 91 patients in the hospital setting complied with treatment versus 105 (81·4%) of 129 patients in the community setting. The intervention was cost-effective at willingness to pay thresholds in excess of £8540. One serious adverse event (thyroiditis) was noted. INTERPRETATION: Screening migrants for viral hepatitis in primary care is effective if doctors are incentivised and supported. Community care is expensive and there is no evidence that this offers benefits in this setting or that bespoke invitation letters add value. We suggest that bespoke invitation letters should not be used, and we suggest that outreach, community-based services for migrants should not be developed. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Background
There is an inherent tension in neonatal services between the efficiency and specialised care that comes with centralisation and the provision of local services with associated ease of access and community benefits. This study builds on previous work in South West England to address these issues at a national scale.

Objectives
(1) to develop an analytical framework to address key issues of neonatal service configuration in England, (2) to investigate visualisation tools to facilitate the communication of findings to stakeholder groups and (3) to assess parental preferences in relation to service configuration alternatives.

Main outcome measures
The ability to meet nurse staffing guidelines, volumes of units, costs, mortality, number and distance of transfers, travel distances and travel times for parents.

Design
Descriptive statistics, location analysis, mathematical modelling, discrete event simulation and economic analysis were used. Qualitative methods were used to interview policy-makers and parents. A parent advisory group supported the study.

Setting
NHS neonatal services across England.

Data
Neonatal care data were sourced from the National Neonatal Research Database. Information on neonatal units was drawn from the National Neonatal Audit Programme. Geographic and demographic data were sourced from the Office for National Statistics. Travel time data were retrieved via a geographic information system. Birth data were sourced from Hospital Episode Statistics. Parental cost data were collected via a survey.

Results
Location analysis shows that to achieve 100% of births in units with ≥ 6000 births per year, the number of birth centres would need to be reduced from 161 to approximately 72, with more parents travelling > 30 minutes. The maximum number of neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) needed to achieve 100% of very low-birthweight infants attending high-volume units is 36 with existing NICUs, or 48 if NICUs are located wherever there is currently a neonatal unit of any level. Simulation modelling further demonstrated the workforce implications of different configurations. Mortality modelling shows that the birth of very preterm infants in high-volume hospitals reduces mortality (a conservative estimate of a 1.2-percentage-point lower risk) relative to these births in other hospitals. It is currently not possible to estimate the impact of mortality for infants transferred into NICUs. Cost modelling shows that the mean length of stay following a birth in a high-volume hospital is 9 days longer and the mean cost is £5715 more than for a birth in another neonatal unit. In addition, the incremental cost per neonatal life saved is £460,887, which is comparable to other similar life-saving interventions. The analysis of parent costs identified unpaid leave entitlement, food, travel, accommodation, baby care and parking as key factors. The qualitative study suggested that central concerns were the health of the baby and mother, communication by medical teams and support for families.

Limitations
The following factors could not be modelled because of a paucity of data – morbidity outcomes, the impact of transfers and the maternity/neonatal service interface.

Conclusions
An evidence-based framework was developed to inform the configuration of neonatal services and model system performance from the perspectives of both service providers and parents.

Future work
To extend the modelling to encompass the interface between maternity and neonatal services.

Patients presenting with chest pain at an emergency department in the United Kingdom receive troponin tests to assess the likelihood of an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Until recently, serial testing with two blood samples separated by at least six hours was necessary in order to analyse the change in troponin levels over time. New high-sensitivity troponin tests, however, allow the inter-test time to be shortened from six to three hours. Recent evidence also suggests that the new generation of troponin tests can be used to rule out AMI on the basis of a single test if patients at low risk of AMI present with very low cardiac troponin levels more than three hours after onset of worst pain. This paper presents a discrete event simulation model to assess the likely impact on the number of hospital admissions if emergency departments adopt strategies for serial and single testing based on the use of high-sensitivity troponin. Data sets from acute trusts in the South West of England are used to quantify the resulting benefits.

Diagnostic imaging services are essential to the diagnosis pathway for many patients arriving at hospital emergency departments with a suspected fracture. Commonly, these patients need to be seen again by a doctor or emergency nurse practitioner after an X-ray image has been taken in order to finalise the diagnosis and determine the next stage in the patients’ pathway. Here, significant waiting times can accrue for these follow-up consultations after radiographic imaging although the vast majority of patients are discharged. Research evidence from pilot studies suggests that patients with minor appendicular injuries could be safely discharged by a suitably qualified radiographer directly after imaging thereby avoiding queues for repeated consultation. In this study, we model patient pathways through an emergency department (ED) at a hospital in the South West of England using process mapping, interviews with ED staff and discrete event simulation (DES). The DES model allowed us to compare the current practice at the hospital with scenarios using radiographer-led discharge of patients directly after imaging and assess the reduction in patients’ length of stay in ED. We also quantified trade-offs between the provision of radiographer-led discharge and its effects, i.e. reduction in waiting times and ED workload. Finally, we discuss how this decision support tool can be used to support understanding for patients and members of staff.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical capacity planning methods that can take account of variations in patient complexity, admission rates and delayed discharges have long been available, but their implementation in complex pathways such as stroke care remains limited. Instead simple average based estimates are commonplace. These methods often substantially underestimate capacity requirements. We analyse the capacity requirements for acute and community stroke services in a pathway with over 630 admissions per year. We sought to identify current capacity bottlenecks affecting patient flow, future capacity requirements in the presence of increased admissions, the impact of co-location and pooling of the acute and rehabilitation units and the impact of patient subgroups on capacity requirements. We contrast these results to the often used method of planning by average occupancy, often with arbitrary uplifts to cater for variability. METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model using aggregate parameter values derived from routine administrative data on over 2000 anonymised admission and discharge timestamps. The model mimicked the flow of stroke, high risk TIA and complex neurological patients from admission to an acute ward through to community rehab and early supported discharge, and predicted the probability of admission delays. RESULTS: an increase from 10 to 14 acute beds reduces the number of patients experiencing a delay to the acute stroke unit from 1 in every 7 to 1 in 50. Co-location of the acute and rehabilitation units and pooling eight beds out of a total bed stock of 26 reduce the number of delayed acute admissions to 1 in every 29 and the number of delayed rehabilitation admissions to 1 in every 20. Planning by average occupancy would resulted in delays for one in every five patients in the acute stroke unit. CONCLUSIONS: Planning by average occupancy fails to provide appropriate reserve capacity to manage the variations seen in stroke pathways to desired service levels. An appropriate uplift from the average cannot be based simply on occupancy figures. Our method draws on long available, intuitive, but underused mathematical techniques for capacity planning. Implementation via simulation at our study hospital provided valuable decision support for planners to assess future bed numbers and organisation of the acute and rehabilitation services.

KEYNOTE PRESENTATIONS K1 Researching complex interventions: the need for robust approaches Peter Craig K2 Complex intervention studies: an important step in developing knowledge for practice Ingalill Rahm-Hallberg K3 Public and patient involvement in research: what, why and how? Nicky Britten K4 Mixed methods in health service research – where do we go from here? Gunilla Borglin SPEAKER PRESENTATIONS S1 Exploring complexity in systematic reviews of complex interventions Gabriele Meyer, Sascha Köpke, Jane Noyes, Jackie Chandler S2 can complex health interventions be optimised before moving to a definitive RCT? Strategies and methods currently in use Sara Levati S3 a systematic approach to develop theory based implementation interventions Anne Sales S4 Pilot studies and feasibility studies for complex interventions: an introduction Lehana Thabane, Lora Giangregorio S5 What can be done to pilot complex interventions? Nancy Feeley, Sylvie Cossette S6 Using feasibility and pilot trials to test alternative methodologies and methodological procedures prior to full scale trials Rod Taylor S7 a mixed methods feasibility study in practice Jacqueline Hill, David a Richards, Willem Kuyken S8 Non-standard experimental designs and preference designs Louise von Essen S9 Evaluation gone wild: using natural experimental approaches to evaluate complex interventions Andrew Williams S10 the stepped wedge cluster randomised trial: an opportunity to increase the quality of evaluations of service delivery and public policy interventions Karla Hemming, Richard Lilford, Alan Girling, Monica Taljaard S11 Adaptive designs in confirmatory clinical trials: opportunities in investigating complex interventions Munyaradzi Dimairo S12 Processes, contexts and outcomes in complex interventions, and the implications for evaluation Mark Petticrew S13 Processes, contexts and outcomes in complex interventions, and the implications for evaluation Janis Baird, Graham Moore S14 Qualitative evaluation alongside RCTs: what to consider to get relevant and valuable results Willem Odendaal, Salla Atkins, Elizabeth Lutge, Natalie Leon, Simon Lewin S15 Using economic evaluations to understand the value of complex interventions: when maximising health status is not sufficient Katherine Payne S16 How to arrive at an implementation plan Theo van Achterberg S17 Modelling process and outcomes in complex interventions Walter Sermeus S18 Systems modelling for improving health care Martin Pitt, Thomas Monks

The ever increasing pressures to ensure the most efficient and effective use of limited health service resources will, over time, encourage policy makers to turn to system modelling solutions. Such techniques have been available for decades, but despite ample research which demonstrates potential, their application in health services to date is limited. This article surveys the breadth of approaches available to support delivery and design across many areas and levels of healthcare planning. A case study in emergency stroke care is presented as an exemplar of an impactful application of health system modelling. This is followed by a discussion of the key issues surrounding the application of these methods in health, what barriers need to be overcome to ensure more effective implementation, as well as likely developments in the future.

Ambulance demand in South West England is increasing year-on-year, but the driving forces behind such increases are poorly understood. We developed a system dynamics model to simulate the factors that influence a call being made for an ambulance. We used data from the South West Ambulance Service NHS Foundation Trust (SWAST), the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and quantitative relationship data in both national and international literature to parameterise the model. We compared predicted ambulance demand over 12 months in the base case model with scenarios in which each influencing factor was removed in turn. The model predicts that the prevalence of regular falls among older people most influences the level of demand for ambulances. The model also predicts that the number of users of adult mental health services could be a significant contributor to ambulance demand. Additional focus on, and investment in, falls prevention strategies could help to significantly alleviate increasing levels of demand for ambulance services in South West England. Additionally, efforts to understand why those with mental health needs tend to use ambulances more than those without such needs could also be beneficial.

Very few discrete-event simulation studies follow up on recommendations with evaluation of whether modelled benefits have been realised and the extent to which modelling contributed to any change. This paper evaluates changes made to the emergency stroke care pathway at a UK hospital informed by a simulation modelling study. The aims of the study were to increase the proportion of people with strokes that undergo a time-sensitive treatment to breakdown a blood clot within the brain and decrease the time to treatment. Evaluation involved analysis of stroke treatment pre- and post-implementation, as well as a comparison of how the research team believed the intervention would aid implementation compared to what actually happened. Two years after the care pathway was changed, treatment rates had increased in line with expectations and the hospital was treating four times as many patients than before the intervention in half the time. There is evidence that the modelling process aided implementation, but not always in line with expectations of the research team. Despite user involvement throughout the study it proved difficult to involve a representative group of clinical stakeholders in conceptual modelling and this affected model credibility. The research team also found batch experimentation more useful than visual interactive simulation to structure debate and decision making. In particular, simple charts of results focused debates on the clinical effectiveness of drugs - an emergent barrier to change. Visual interactive simulation proved more useful for engaging different hospitals and initiating new projects.

Typically, fractured neck of femur patients admitted to an acute hospital are discharged to a community hospital for a period of rehabilitation after their treatment. However, there is concern that this might unnecessarily extend the total period of hospitalisation for these patients. Using data from a local acute hospital, we used discrete event simulation to predict the practicability of fractured neck of femur patients remaining in an acute hospital for their entire superspell (the overall length of stay across hospitals). We tested scenarios in which patient superspell duration was shortened, as well as a scenario in which no reduction in superspell length was observed. The model predicts that - even assuming that the superspell of fractured neck of femur patients could be significantly reduced - bed occupancy levels at the acute hospital would increase to operationally infeasible levels. Therefore, it is unlikely that fractured neck of femur patients could remain in a typical acute hospital unless there were sufficient increases in available resources.

Health and social care systems are facing major challenges worldwide, due in part to changes in demography and advances in technology and in part to changes in the structure and organisation of care delivery. The IMA Health 2013 conference brought together health care managers, clinicians, management consultants, and mathematicians, operational and health service researchers, statisticians and health economists from across the world with a view to bridging the gap between the respective communities, to exploring recent developments and identifying opportunities for further research. The eight selected papers of this special issue have been grouped into two broad categories. First, there are five papers that report on studies conducted in or relevant to care provision within hospitals. The three remaining papers concern studies aimed at problems related to care provided outside the hospital including long-term care, community based care services and public health. A key learning point arising from these papers and the discussions that took place during the conference is that the systems modelling community need not only to focus their efforts in developing new and improving the performance of existing algorithms, but also in achieving better integration with qualitative research methods and with various relevant strands of the social sciences (ethnography, organisation behaviour etc.). In any case, collaborative projects which engage directly with those involved both in delivering and receiving health care is key if modelling is to make a difference in tackling the messy and complex problems of health and social care.

Geographic modelling techniques provide a means of optimising the location of services, or understanding the potential impact of geographic service reconfigurations. In response to commissioner queries, we assessed the potential impact on patient travel time and attendances of the closure of four minor injury units (MIUs) in a locality of South West England. We used the MPMileCharter add-in for Microsoft MapPoint and the attendance records of 90252 minor injury unit patients to calculate car travel time data to the units in the locality. We then built a geographic model of the existing configuration of MIUs in Microsoft Excel, and used 'what if' analysis to determine the potential impact of the proposed closures. The model predicted that if the four MIUs were closed, there would be only a trivial increase in average travel time across all patients, but a significant increase of around 20 minutes per patient for those whose nearest unit was closed. The model also predicted that the closure of one of the MIUs could lead to significant increased demand at the walk-in centre located at the acute hospital. Using these results, the local commissioners decided to close only three of the four units.

A Markov model was developed to predict the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab compared to macular laser therapy for diabetes patients with clinically significant macular oedema (CSMO). This study used outcome data from a randomised controlled trial, utility data and health states from a ranibizumab health technology assessment, and costs from the UK national tariff. A total of 37.73% of patients treated with bevacizumab in the model had a visual acuity of at least 76 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study Research Group (ETDRS) letters after four years, compared with 4.09% of laser therapy patients. Only 0.11% of bevacizumab patients were blind after four years compared with 6.45% of laser therapy patients. However, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £51,182, we predict that bevacizumab would not be cost-effective compared to laser therapy because of the influence of the NHS national tariff costs for monitoring patients and administering bevacizumab, and the inability of the EQ-5D measure to capture the impact of sensory deprivation on quality of life sufficiently. This study recommends significant caution when interpreting the results of cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions that involve vision-related interventions.

Very few discrete-event simulation studies follow up on recommendations with evaluation of whether modelled benefits have been realised and the extent to which modelling contributed to any change. This paper evaluates changes made to the emergency stroke care pathway at a UK hospital informed by a simulation modelling study. The aims of the study were to increase the proportion of people with strokes that undergo a time-sensitive treatment to breakdown a blood clot within the brain and decrease the time to treatment. Evaluation involved analysis of stroke treatment pre- and post-implementation, as well as a comparison of how the research team believed the intervention would aid implementation compared to what actually happened. Two years after the care pathway was changed, treatment rates had increased in line with expectations and the hospital was treating four times as many patients than before the intervention in half the time. There is evidence that the modelling process aided implementation, but not always in line with expectations of the research team. Despite user involvement throughout the study it proved difficult to involve a representative group of clinical stakeholders in conceptual modelling and this affected model credibility. The research team also found batch experimentation more useful than visual interactive simulation to structure debate and decision making. In particular, simple charts of results focused debates on the clinical effectiveness of drugs - an emergent barrier to change. Visual interactive simulation proved more useful for engaging different hospitals and initiating new projects.

Interest is growing internationally in the potential benefits of patient and public involvement (PPI) in research. In the United Kingdom (UK) health and social care services are now committed to involving patients and service users in the planning, development and evaluation of their services. Many funders require PPI as a prerequisite for funding. What does healthcare operational research miss by not involving patients and the public in the development, refinement and implementation of models? We believe PPI is important for healthcare OR for model design and validation, and ethical and economic reasons. It also has a distinct contribution that goes beyond the incorporation of behavioural parameters into models. Case studies in neonatal care and a fractured neck of femur pathway highlight PPI’s contribution to model design and validation, but a recent conference session also identified a number of obstacles. We suggest a provisional model for the implementation of PPI in healthcare OR that emphasises a facilitative approach. We acknowledge this is a significant challenge, but argue that it must be met for ethical and economic reasons that are ultimately rooted in modellers’ construction of valid models. Crucially, it has the potential to enhance our ability to bring about change which can benefit health services and, most importantly, the patients they serve.

This paper addresses a key issue in the health OR literature, namely the apparent failure of OR modelling to become embedded and widely implemented within healthcare organisations. The research presented here is a case study to evaluate the adoption of one particular simulation modelling tool, Scenario Generator (S:G), which was developed by the SIMUL8 Corporation in a PPI partnership with the UK's National Health Service (NHS) Institute for Innovation and Improvement. The study involved semi-structured interviews with employees of 28 Primary Care Trusts who had all been engaged in some way with the initiative, with participants classified as 'Not Started', 'Given Up' and 'Actively Using'. This paper presents a brief summary of barriers and facilitators to the successful use of the S:G software, but its main purpose is to focus more broadly on factors influencing the successful adoption of simulation tools in general within healthcare organisations. The insights gained in this study are relevant to improving the uptake of OR modelling in general within the NHS. © 2013 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVE: in the U.K. people with diabetes are typically screened for retinopathy annually. However, diabetic retinopathy sometimes has a slow progression rate. We developed a simulation model to predict the likely impact of screening patients with type 2 diabetes, who have not been diagnosed with diabetic retinopathy, every 2 years rather than annually. We aimed to assess whether or not such a policy would increase the proportion of patients who developed retinopathy-mediated vision loss compared with the current policy, along with the potential cost savings that could be achieved. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We developed a model that simulates the progression of retinopathy in type 2 diabetic patients, and the screening of these patients, to predict rates of retinopathy-mediated vision loss. We populated the model with data obtained from a National Health Service Foundation Trust. We generated comparative 15-year forecasts to assess the differences between the current and proposed screening policies. RESULTS the simulation model predicts that implementing a 2-year screening interval for type 2 diabetic patients without evidence of diabetic retinopathy does not increase their risk of vision loss. Furthermore, we predict that this policy could reduce screening costs by ~25%. CONCLUSIONS: Screening people with type 2 diabetes, who have not yet developed retinopathy, every 2 years, rather than annually, is a safe and cost-effective strategy. Our findings support those of other studies, and we therefore recommend a review of the current National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines for diabetic retinopathy screening implemented in the U.K.

BACKGROUND: Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) is a form of cancer affecting the blood, characterised by excessive proliferation of white blood cells in the bone marrow and circulating blood. In the UK, an estimated 560 new cases of CML are diagnosed each year. OBJECTIVES: the purpose of this study was to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib in the treatment of people with imatinib-resistant (ImR) and imatinib-intolerant (ImI) CML. A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness literature, a review of manufacturer submissions and a critique and exploration of manufacturer submissions for accelerated phase and blast crisis CML were carried out and a decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib in chronic phase CML. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW METHODS: Key databases were searched for relevant studies from their inception to June 2009 [MEDLINE (including MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations), EMBASE, (ISI Web of Science) Conference Proceedings Citation Index and four others]. One reviewer assessed titles and abstracts of studies identified by the search strategy, with a sample checked by a second reviewer. The full text of relevant papers was obtained and screened against the full inclusion criteria independently by two reviewers. Data from included studies were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Clinical effectiveness studies were synthesised through narrative review. ECONOMIC EVALUATION METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analyses reported in manufacturer submissions to the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence were critically appraised and summarised narratively. In addition, the models for accelerated phase and blast crisis underwent a more detailed critique and exploration. Two separate decision-analytic models were developed for chronic phase CML, one simulating a cohort of individuals who have shown or developed resistance to normal dose imatinib and one representing individuals who have been unable to continue imatinib treatment owing to adverse events. One-way, multiway and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore structural and parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included in the systematic review. Chronic phase: effectiveness data were limited but dasatinib and nilotinib appeared efficacious in terms of obtaining cytogenetic response and haematological response in both ImR and ImI populations. In terms of cost-effectiveness, it was extremely difficult to reach any conclusions regarding either agent in the ImR population. All three models (Novartis, PenTAG and Bristol-Myers Squibb) were seriously flawed in one way or another, as a consequence of the paucity of data appropriate to construct robust decision-analytic models. Accelerated and blast crisis: all available data originated from observational single-arm studies and there were considerable and potentially important differences in baseline characteristics which seriously undermined any process for making meaningful comparisons between treatments. Owing to a lack of available clinical data, de novo models of accelerated phase and blast crisis have not been developed. The economic evaluations carried out by the manufacturers of nilotinib and dasatinib were seriously undermined by the absence of evidence on high-dose imatinib in these populations. LIMITATIONS: the study has been necessarily constrained by the paucity of available clinical data, the differences in definitions used in the studies and the subsequent impossibility of undertaking a meaningful cost-effectiveness analyses to inform all policy questions. CONCLUSIONS: Dasatinib and nilotinib appeared efficacious in terms of obtaining cytogenetic and haematological responses in both ImR and ImI populations. It was difficult to reach any cost-effectiveness conclusions as a consequence of the paucity of the data. Future research should include a three-way, double-blind, randomised clinical trial of dasatinib, nilotinib and high-dose imatinib.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: to maximize the benefits of thrombolysis, it is necessary not only to treat more patients, but to deliver treatment as early as possible. The aims of our study were to prospectively evaluate the clinical benefit from reducing delays in the emergency stroke pathway at our district hospital and examine outcomes from scenarios that include extension of the alteplase license. METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation from prospective data for patients with stroke arriving at our large district hospital. We modeled current practice and assessed the impact on stroke outcomes of measures to reduce in-hospital delays to alteplase treatment and of extensions to the European license for alteplase from 3 to 4.5 hours and to people aged >80 years. RESULTS: Extension of the time window to 4.5 hours increases the thrombolysis rate by 4%, yielding an additional 2 patients per year with minimal or no disability at 3 months. Time window extension is most effective when combined with a system of prealerts, achieving a thrombolysis rate of 15% and an additional 8 patients per year with minimal or no disability, increasing to 13 patients per year with extension of the license to patients >80 years. CONCLUSIONS: If implemented alone, extension of the time window for alteplase has only a modest additional population disability benefit, but this benefit can be increased 5-fold if time window extension is combined with substantial reductions to in-hospital delays.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Pooled analyses show benefits of intravenous alteplase (recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator) treatment for acute ischemic stroke up to 4.5 hours after onset despite marketing approval for up to 3 hours. However, the benefit from thrombolysis is critically time-dependent and if extending the time window reduces treatment urgency, this could reduce the population benefit from any extension. METHODS: Based on 3830 UK patients registered between 2005 to 2010 in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke-International Stroke Thrombolysis Registry (SITS-ISTR), a Monte Carlo simulation was used to model recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator treatment up to 4·5 hours from onset and assess the impact (numbers surviving with little or no disability) from changes in hospital treatment times associated with this extended time window. RESULTS: We observed a significant relation between time remaining to treat and time taken to treat in the UK SITS-ISTR data set after adjustment for censoring. Simulation showed that as this "deadline effect" increases, an extended treatment time window entails that an increasing number of patients are treated at a progressively lower absolute benefit to a point where the population benefit from extending the time window is entirely negated. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the benefit for individual patients treated up to 4.5 hours after onset, the population benefit may be reduced or lost altogether if extending the time window results in more patients being treated but at a lower absolute benefit. A universally applied reduction in hospital arrival to treatment times of 8 minutes would confer a population benefit as large as the time window extension.

This paper represents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of everolimus plus best supportive care (BSC) for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) which has progressed following or on vascular endothelial growth factor-targeted therapy (sunitinib, sorafenib, bevacizumab), compared to BSC alone. The submitting manufacturer's case for clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness was mainly based on a well-conducted randomised controlled trial (RCT), Renal Cell Cancer Treatment with Oral RAD001 Given Daily-1 (RECORD-1), comparing BSC plus everolimus with BSC plus placebo and a de novo economic model. The RCT indicated a marked statistically significant effect on progression-free survival. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) estimate was 52,000 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (this included a reduction in drug cost associated with an approved patient access scheme). The ERG undertook a critical appraisal of the submission. The ERG was generally in agreement with the submitting manufacturer concerning its estimates of effectiveness; however, there was greater concern surrounding the estimates of cost-effectiveness. The ERG judged that if potential errors in the model were corrected, the ICERs offered by the submitting manufacturer would overstate the cost-effectiveness of everolimus for the second-line treatment of metastatic RCC (that this ICER would be a higher value). Concerning the estimates of cost-effectiveness in RCC, the observations in the ERG report provide strong further support for research collecting rigorous estimates of utilities associated with the main health states likely to be experienced by patients with renal cell cancer. At the time of writing, NICE was yet to issue the Appraisal Consultation Document for this appraisal.

This paper presents a method for using online, task-based experiments to test information presentations. It was designed to provide important information as a basis for further research which might be conducted in the context of healthcare policy making. A tabulated, numerical presentation of information for a simplifed example of a cost-efectiveness decision task was compared to a presentation which also included graphical Isotype-style elements and vertical bars. The online study was accessed 244 times over a 36 day period. The data collected showed that the two presentation methods were largely similar in terms of average decision accuracy and time taken. However, performance was linked to the participants' preference for the presentations. The study recommends that online, task-based experiments can be used to compare information presentations, where a large number of people can be invited to take part. © 2010 John Benjamins Publishing Company.

Background: Screening markers are used in emergency departments (EDs) to identify children who should be assessed for possible physical abuse and neglect. We conducted three systematic reviews evaluating age, repeat attendance and injury type as markers for physical abuse or neglect in injured children attending EDs. Methods: We included studies comparing markers in physically abused or neglected children and non-abused injured children attending ED or hospital. We calculated likelihood ratios (LRs) for age group, repeat attendance and injury type (head injury, bruises, fractures, burns or other). Given the low prevalence of abuse or neglect, we considered that an LR of 10 or more would be clinically useful. Results: all studies were poor quality. Infancy increased the risk of physical abuse or neglect in severely injured or admitted children (LRs 7.7-13.0, 2 studies) but was not strongly associated in children attending the ED (LR 1.5, 95% CI: 0.9, 2.8; one study). Repeat attendance did not substantially increase the risk of abuse or neglect and may be confounded by chronic disease and socio-economic status (LRs 0.8-3.9, 3 studies). One study showed no evidence that the type of injury substantially increased the risk of physical abuse or neglect in severely injured children. Conclusions: There was no evidence that any of the markers (infancy, type of injury, repeated attendance) were sufficiently accurate (i.e. LR ≥ 10) to screen injured children in the ED to identify those requiring paediatric assessment for possible physical abuse or neglect. Clinicians should be aware that among injured children at ED a high proportion of abused children will present without these characteristics and a high proportion of non-abused children will present with them. Information about age, injury type and repeat attendances should be interpreted in this context. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

In 2004, the Peninsula Technology Assessment Group developed an economic model to assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus in preventing morbidity and mortality from oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The conclusion then was that surveillance was dominated (ie, cost more and conferred less health benefit) by non-surveillance in most scenarios and that surveillance was unlikely to be cost effective at usual levels of willingness to pay. The model outputs were highly sensitive, however, to several parameters for which the data were very uncertain. While there are now better estimates of some of the model inputs, such as cancer risk and quality of life, the revised values make it less likely that surveillance could prove cost effective. There remains considerable uncertainty around other key inputs. At present, there seems little reason to change our original conclusion that surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus is unlikely to be cost effective and a definitive answer may only be possible from clinical trials now in progress. As newer endoscopic techniques for treating Barrett's oesophagus and adenocarcinoma become more widely used, however, conventional surveillance programmes may no longer be undertaken, and revised economic models will be needed to assess the cost effectiveness of the new clinical pathways.

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rituximab for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) based upon a review of the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The manufacturer's searches for clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data were appropriate and included all relevant studies. The submission's evidence came from a single, unpublished, well-conducted randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (FC) alone for the first-line treatment of CLL. There was a statistically significant increase in progression-free survival (PFS) with R-FC compared with FC alone {median 39.8 months vs 32.2 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43 to 0.72]}. However, the initial significant treatment benefit for R-FC compared with FC for overall survival was not maintained at a slightly longer follow-up time [median 25.4 months; adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.09)]. Response rates, numbers of patients with event-free survival and duration of response all favoured treatment with R-FC. Additional evidence from a mixed-treatment comparison model indicated R-FC to be significantly superior to chlorambucil alone for both PFS and overall and complete response rates. The incidence of grade 3 or 4 adverse events was higher in the R-FC arm (77%) than in the FC arm (62%). Dose modifications were also more frequent in this arm, but this did not lead to differences in treatment discontinuation. Roche used a three-state Markov model (PFS, progressed and death) to model the cost-effectiveness of R-FC compared with FC and chlorambucil alone. The model used a cycle length of 1 month and a lifetime time horizon. The approach taken to modelling was reasonable and the sources and justification of estimates were generally sound. The base-case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 13,189 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for R-FC versus FC, and 6422 pounds per QALY for the comparison of R-FC versus chlorambucil, suggesting that R-FC is cost-effective at normal willingness-to-pay thresholds. One-way sensitivity analyses produced a range of ICERs from 10,249 pounds to 22,661 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus FC, and 5612 pounds and 6921 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus chlorambucil. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results matched the deterministic results very closely. However, the sensitivity analysis did not fully investigate the uncertainty associated with differential values across arms or with the structural assumptions of the model, and utility values were not drawn from an empirical study. The NICE guidance issued as a result of the STA states that: Rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) is recommended as an option for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in people for whom fludarabine in combination with cyclophosphamide (FC) is considered appropriate. Rituximab in combination with chemotherapy agents other than fludarabine and cyclophosphamide is not recommended for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rituximab for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) based upon a review of the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The manufacturer's searches for clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data were appropriate and included all relevant studies. The submission's evidence came from a single, unpublished, well-conducted randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (FC) alone for the first-line treatment of CLL. There was a statistically significant increase in progression-free survival (PFS) with R-FC compared with FC alone {median 39.8 months vs 32.2 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43 to 0.72]}. However, the initial significant treatment benefit for R-FC compared with FC for overall survival was not maintained at a slightly longer follow-up time [median 25.4 months; adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.09)]. Response rates, numbers of patients with event-free survival and duration of response all favoured treatment with R-FC. Additional evidence from a mixed-treatment comparison model indicated R-FC to be significantly superior to chlorambucil alone for both PFS and overall and complete response rates. The incidence of grade 3 or 4 adverse events was higher in the R-FC arm (77%) than in the FC arm (62%). Dose modifications were also more frequent in this arm, but this did not lead to differences in treatment discontinuation. Roche used a three-state Markov model (PFS, progressed and death) to model the cost-effectiveness of R-FC compared with FC and chlorambucil alone. The model used a cycle length of 1 month and a lifetime time horizon. The approach taken to modelling was reasonable and the sources and justification of estimates were generally sound. The base-case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 13,189 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for R-FC versus FC, and 6422 pounds per QALY for the comparison of R-FC versus chlorambucil, suggesting that R-FC is cost-effective at normal willingness-to-pay thresholds. One-way sensitivity analyses produced a range of ICERs from 10,249 pounds to 22,661 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus FC, and 5612 pounds and 6921 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus chlorambucil. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results matched the deterministic results very closely. However, the sensitivity analysis did not fully investigate the uncertainty associated with differential values across arms or with the structural assumptions of the model, and utility values were not drawn from an empirical study. The NICE guidance issued as a result of the STA states that: Rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) is recommended as an option for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in people for whom fludarabine in combination with cyclophosphamide (FC) is considered appropriate. Rituximab in combination with chemotherapy agents other than fludarabine and cyclophosphamide is not recommended for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

This article describes a multi-dimensional approach to the classification of the research literature on simulation and modelling in health care. The aim of the study was to analyse the relative frequency of use of a range of operational research modelling approaches in health care, along with the specific domains of application and the level of implementation. Given the vast scale of the health care modelling literature, a novel review methodology was adopted, similar in concept to the approach of stratified sampling. The results provide new insights into the level of activity across many areas of application, highlighting important relationships and pointing to key areas of omission and neglect in the literature. In addition, the approach presented in this article provides a systematic and generic methodology that can be extended to other application domains as well as other types of information source in health-care modelling. © 2009 Operational Research Society Ltd.

Objective: to review the evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of storing kidneys from deceased donors prior to transplantation, using cold static storage solutions or pulsatile hypothermic machine perfusion. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched in January 2008 and updated in May 2008 for systematic reviews and/or meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), other study designs and ongoing research. Sources included: Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, ISI Web of Knowledge, DARE, NRR, ReFeR, Current Controlled Trials, and (NHS) HTA. Bibliographies of articles were searched for further relevant studies, and the Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) and European Regulatory Agency Medical Device Safety Service websites were searched. Only English language papers were sought. Review methods: the perfusion machines identified were the LifePort Kidney Transporter® (Organ Recovery Systems) and the RM3 Renal Preservation System® (Waters Medical Systems). The cold storage solutions reviewed were: University of Wisconsin, ViaSpan™; Marshall's hypertonic citrate, Soltran™; and Genzyme, Celsior™. Each intervention was compared with the others as data permitted. The population was recipients of kidneys from deceased donors. The main outcomes were measures of graft survival, patient survival, delayed graft function (DGF), primary non-function (PNF), discard rates of non-viable kidneys, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Where data permitted the results of studies were pooled using meta-analysis. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to simulate the main post-transplantation outcomes of kidney graft recipients. Results: Eleven studies were included: three full journal published RCTs, two ongoing RCTs [European Machine Preservation Trial (MPT) and UK Pulsatile Perfusion in Asystolic donor Renal Transplantation (PPART) study], one cohort study, three full journal published retrospective record reviews and two retrospective record reviews published as posters or abstracts only. For LifePort versus ViaSpan, no significant differences were found for DGF, PNF, acute rejection, duration of DGF, creatinine clearance or toxicity, patient survival or graft survival at 6 months, but graft survival was better at 12 months post transplant with machine perfusion (LifePort = 98%, ViaSpan = 94%, p < 0.03). For LifePort versus RM3, all outcomes favoured RM3, although the results may be unreliable. For ViaSpan versus Soltran, there were no significant differences in graft survival for cold ischaemic times up to 36 hours. For ViaSpan versus Celsior, no significant differences were found on any outcome measure. In terms of cost-effectiveness, data from the MPT suggested that machine preservation was cheaper and generated more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), while the PPART study data suggested that cold storage was preferable on both counts. The less reliable deterministic outputs of the cohort study suggested that LifePort would be cheaper and would generate more QALYs than Soltran. Sensitivity analyses found that changes to the differential kidney storage costs between comparators have a very low impact on overall net benefit estimates; where differences in effectiveness exist, dialysis costs are important in determining overall net benefit; DGF levels become important only when differences in graft survival are apparent between patients experiencing immediate graft function (IGF) versus DGF; relative impact of differential changes to graft survival for patients experiencing IGF as opposed to DGF depends on the relative proportion of patients experiencing each of these two outcomes. Conclusions: the conclusions drawn for the comparison of machine perfusion with cold storage depend on which trial data are used in the model. Owing to the lack of good research evidence that either ViaSpan or Soltran is better than the other, the cheaper, Soltran, may be preferable. In the absence of a cost-utility analysis, the results of our meta-analysis of the RCTs comparing ViaSpan with Celsior indicate that these cold storage solutions are equivalent. Further RCTs of comparators of interest to allow for appropriate analysis of subgroups and to determine whether either of the two machines under consideration produces better outcomes may be useful. In addition, research is required to: establish the strength and reliability of the presumed causal association between DGF and graft, and patient survival; investigate the utility impacts of renal replacement therapy; determine what the additional cost, survival and QALY impacts are of decreased or increased non-viable kidneys when discarded pre transplantation; and identify a reliable measure for predicting kidney viability from machine perfusion. © 2009 Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVE: to review the evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of storing kidneys from deceased donors prior to transplantation, using cold static storage solutions or pulsatile hypothermic machine perfusion. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched in January 2008 and updated in May 2008 for systematic reviews and/or meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), other study designs and ongoing research. Sources included: Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, ISI Web of Knowledge, DARE, NRR, ReFeR, Current Controlled Trials, and (NHS) HTA. Bibliographies of articles were searched for further relevant studies, and the Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) and European Regulatory Agency Medical Device Safety Service websites were searched. Only English language papers were sought. REVIEW METHODS: the perfusion machines identified were the LifePort Kidney Transporter (Organ Recovery Systems) and the RM3 Renal Preservation System (Waters Medical Systems). The cold storage solutions reviewed were: University of Wisconsin, ViaSpan; Marshall's hypertonic citrate, Soltran; and Genzyme, Celsior. Each intervention was compared with the others as data permitted. The population was recipients of kidneys from deceased donors. The main outcomes were measures of graft survival, patient survival, delayed graft function (DGF), primary non-function (PNF), discard rates of non-viable kidneys, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Where data permitted the results of studies were pooled using meta-analysis. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to simulate the main post-transplantation outcomes of kidney graft recipients. RESULTS: Eleven studies were included: three full journal published RCTs, two ongoing RCTs [European Machine Preservation Trial (MPT) and UK Pulsatile Perfusion in Asystolic donor Renal Transplantation (PPART) study], one cohort study, three full journal published retrospective record reviews and two retrospective record reviews published as posters or abstracts only. For LifePort versus ViaSpan, no significant differences were found for DGF, PNF, acute rejection, duration of DGF, creatinine clearance or toxicity, patient survival or graft survival at 6 months, but graft survival was better at 12 months post transplant with machine perfusion (LifePort = 98%, ViaSpan = 94%, p < 0.03). For LifePort versus RM3, all outcomes favoured RM3, although the results may be unreliable. For ViaSpan versus Soltran, there were no significant differences in graft survival for cold ischaemic times up to 36 hours. For ViaSpan versus Celsior, no significant differences were found on any outcome measure. In terms of cost-effectiveness, data from the MPT suggested that machine preservation was cheaper and generated more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), while the PPART study data suggested that cold storage was preferable on both counts. The less reliable deterministic outputs of the cohort study suggested that LifePort would be cheaper and would generate more QALYs than Soltran. Sensitivity analyses found that changes to the differential kidney storage costs between comparators have a very low impact on overall net benefit estimates; where differences in effectiveness exist, dialysis costs are important in determining overall net benefit; DGF levels become important only when differences in graft survival are apparent between patients experiencing immediate graft function (IGF) versus DGF; relative impact of differential changes to graft survival for patients experiencing IGF as opposed to DGF depends on the relative proportion of patients experiencing each of these two outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: the conclusions drawn for the comparison of machine perfusion with cold storage depend on which trial data are used in the model. Owing to the lack of good research evidence that either ViaSpan or Soltran is better than the other, the cheaper, Soltran, may be preferable. In the absence of a cost-utility analysis, the results of our meta-analysis of the RCTs comparing ViaSpan with Celsior indicate that these cold storage solutions are equivalent. Further RCTs of comparators of interest to allow for appropriate analysis of subgroups and to determine whether either of the two machines under consideration produces better outcomes may be useful. In addition, research is required to: establish the strength and reliability of the presumed causal association between DGF and graft, and patient survival; investigate the utility impacts of renal replacement therapy; determine what the additional cost, survival and QALY impacts are of decreased or increased non-viable kidneys when discarded pre transplantation; and identify a reliable measure for predicting kidney viability from machine perfusion.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the use of information graphics to display the outputs of health technology assessment (HTA) in the United Kingdom and proposes a more structured approach founded in an analysis of the decision-making requirements of the key stakeholders. METHODS: a scoping review of HTA reports was conducted to investigate current practice in the use of information graphics in HTA literature. A classification framework using dimensions of report section, graphical type, and originating research center was devised and used for a full content analysis of the graphical figures in the fifty most recent reports produced for the UK National Health Service's HTA process. RESULTS: Our survey shows that graphical tools are used extensively in HTA reports although less frequently than tables. Use of information graphics varies widely between different report sections and tends to follow conventional lines with little evidence of variance from established practice. The largest variance was found between the quantities of graphics used by different research centers responsible for authoring the reports. CONCLUSIONS: HTA makes extensive use of graphics; however, there is little evidence of a systematic or standardized approach, or of much innovation. Significant potential exists to explore the application of information graphics in this field, but there are many research challenges. A contextually based, structured approach to the design of effective information graphics in HTA is proposed as a basis both to investigate the application of existing graphical tools in HTA, and to explore the considerable scope for innovation.

BACKGROUND: High-grade gliomas are aggressive brain tumours that are extremely challenging to treat effectively. The intracranial implantation of carmustine wafers (BCNU-W), which delivers chemotherapy directly to the affected area, may prolong survival in this population. However, no attention has yet been paid to the economic implications of BCNU-W in this setting. OBJECTIVE: to investigate the cost effectiveness of BCNU-W as an adjunct to surgery followed by radiotherapy, compared with surgery plus radiotherapy alone. Newly diagnosed, operable grade III and IV gliomas in a population with a mean age of 55 years were considered. METHODS: a Markov cost-utility model was developed in Microsoft Excel, adopting a UK NHS perspective. Transition probabilities and cost data (year 2004 values) were obtained from published literature or expert opinion. The model incorporated utility values, obtained from members of the public, reflecting the quality of life associated with high-grade glioma. The effects of uncertainty were explored through extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Surgery with the implantation of BCNU-W followed by radiotherapy costs pound sterling 54 500 per additional QALY gained when compared with surgery plus radiotherapy alone. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows a

To determine the clinical effectiveness of screening tests for physical abuse in children attending accident and emergency (A&E) departments in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: to assess the cost-effectiveness of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. DESIGN: Cost-utility model. SETTING: UK NHS. PATIENTS: One thousand 55-year-old men with Barrett's oesophagus. INTERVENTION: Surveillance programme: endoscopy and biopsy at 3 yearly intervals for non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus; low-grade dysplasia yearly; high grade-dysplasia 3 monthly. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, expected value of perfect information. RESULTS: Non-surveillance dominated surveillance (i.e. cost less and conferred more benefit), but there was substantial uncertainty around many of the model inputs. Probabilistic analyses showed that non-surveillance cost less and conferred more benefit in 75% of model runs. Surveillance was cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay in 11% of runs. For people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales, a value of pound6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. CONCLUSIONS: the PenTAG cost-utility model suggests that surveillance programmes do more harm than good.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) alone and ICS used in combination with a long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA) in the treatment of chronic asthma in adults and children aged over 12 years. DATA SOURCES: Major electronic bibliographic databases, e.g. MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched up to February/March 2006 (and updated again in October 2006). REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review of clinical and cost-effectiveness studies was conducted. Cost comparison and cost-consequence analyses were performed where appropriate. RESULTS: the assessment of clinical effectiveness was based on the 67 randomised controlled trials selected from the 5175 reports identified through the systematic literature search. The most frequently reported relevant outcomes were lung function, symptoms, use of rescue medication and adverse events. The trials varied considerably. In the trials that compared low-dose ICS versus ICS and high-dose ICS versus ICS, there were few significant differences in clinical effectiveness, although a few of the trials had assessed non-inferiority between the comparators rather than superiority. At doses of 400, 800 and 'high-level' doses of 1500 or 1600 microg/day, beclometasone dipropionate (BDP) appears to be the current cheapest ICS product both with the inclusion and exclusion of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-propelled products. A significant treatment benefit for combination ICS/LABA therapy across a range of outcomes compared with ICS alone was identified [when the ICS was double the accepted clinically equivalent dose of the ICS in the combination inhaler, and dry powder inhalers (DPIS) were used to deliver the drugs]. When a formoterol fumarate (FF)/salmeterol (SAL) combination inhaler and a budesonide (BUD)/FF combination inhaler were each compared with their constituent drugs delivered in separate inhalers, there were very few statistically significant differences between the treatments across the various efficacy outcomes and the rate of adverse events. Combination inhalers were more often cheaper than doubling the dose of ICS alone. However, the costs were highly variable and dependent on both the dose required and the preparation used in the trials. The estimated mean annual cost of FP/SAL combination varied from being 94 pounds cheaper to 109 pounds more expensive than the alternative of BUD at a higher dose. The BUD/FF combination varied from being 163 pounds cheaper to 66 pounds more expensive than the higher dose of either BUD or FP. When the combination inhalers were compared to each other, the results were mixed, with the FP/SAL combination significantly superior on some outcomes and the BUD/FF combination superior on others; however, meta-analysis showed that there were no significant differences between the two treatments in the rate of adverse events. Taking an ICS with a LABA as either of the two currently available combination products, FP/SAL and BUD/FF, is usually cheaper than taking the relevant constituent drugs in separate inhalers. At very high doses of BUD (1600 microg/day), however, the BUD/FF combination inhaler can be up to 156 pounds more expensive than having the same drugs in separate inhalers. In terms of the relative costs associated with taking one of the combination inhalers, at low dose (400 microg BUD or 200 microg FP/day) the cheapest combination inhaler is FP/SAL as a pressurised metered dose inhaler (pMDI) (Seretide Evohaler). However, this is only slightly cheaper than using BUD/FF as a DPI (Symbicort Turbohaler). At higher dose levels (800 microg BUD or 500 microg FP/day) FP/SAL as either pMDI aerosol (Seretide Evohaler) or a DPI (Seretide Accuhaler) is the cheapest combination product available, but again only slightly cheaper than the DPI BUD/FF combination (Symbicort Turbohaler). It should be highlighted, however, that the three head-to-head trials that compared the effects of FP/SAL with BUD/FF used the FP/SAL DPI combination inhaler, Seretide Accuhaler. CONCLUSIONS: the evidence indicates that there are few consistent significant differences in effects between the five ICS licensed for use in adults and adolescents over the age of 12 years, at either low or high dose. On average, BDP products currently tend to be the cheapest ICS available and tend to remain so as the daily ICS dose required increases. There is evidence that the addition of a LABA to an ICS is potentially more clinically effective than doubling the dose of ICS alone, although consistent significant differences between the two treatment strategies are not observed for all outcome measures. The cost differences between combination therapy compared with ICS monotherapy are highly variable and dependent on the dose required and the particular preparations used. For the combination therapies of ICS/LABA there are potential cost savings with the use of combination inhalers compared with separate inhalers, with few differences between the two treatment strategies in terms of effects. The only exception to this cost saving is with BUD/FF at doses higher than 1200 microg/day, where separate inhaler devices can become equivalent to or cheaper than combination inhalers. Neither of the two combination inhalers (FP/SAL or BUD/FF) is consistently superior in terms of treatment effect. A comparison of the costs associated with each combination therapy indicates that at low dose FP/SAL delivered via a pMDI is currently the cheapest combination inhaler but only marginally cheaper than BUD/FF delivered as a DPI. At higher doses, both the FP/SAL combination inhalers (PMDI and DPI) are marginally cheaper than BUD/FF (DPI). Future trials of treatment for chronic asthma should standardise the way in which outcome measures are defined and measured, with a greater focus on patient-centred outcomes. For informing future cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses from a UK NHS perspective, there is a need for longitudinal studies that comprehensively track the care pathways followed when people experience asthma exacerbations of different severity. Further research synthesis, quantifying the adverse effects of the different ICS, is required for treatment choices by patients and clinicians to be fully informed.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) alone and ICS used in combination with a long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA) in the treatment of chronic asthma in children aged under 12 years. DATA SOURCES: Major electronic bibliographic databases, e.g. MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched up to February/March 2006 (and updated again in October 2006). REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review of clinical and cost-effectiveness studies and economic analyses were carried out. A flexible framework was used to allow different types of economic analyses as appropriate, with either a cost comparison or cost-consequence comparison conducted. RESULTS: of 5175 records identified through systematic literature searching, 34 records describing 25 studies were included (16 were fully published randomised controlled trials, six were systematic reviews, and three were post-2004 conference abstracts). The most frequently reported relevant outcomes in the 16 RCTs were peak expiratory flow rate (13 trials), FEV1 (13 trials), symptoms (13 trials), adverse events or exacerbations (13 trials), use of rescue medication (12 trials), markers of adrenal function (e.g. blood or urine cortisol concentrations) (13 trials), height and/or growth rate (seven trials) and markers of bone metabolism (two trials). In the trials that compared low-dose ICS versus ICS and high-dose ICS versus ICS, no consistent significant differences or patterns in differential treatment effect among the outcomes were evident. Where differences were statistically significant at high doses, such as for lung function and growth, they favoured formoterol fumarate (FF), but this was generally in studies that did not compare the ICS at the accepted clinically equivalent doses. Differences between the drugs in impact on adrenal suppression were only significant in two studies. At doses of 200, 400 and 800 microg/day, beclometasone dipropionate (BDP) appears to be the current cheapest ICS product both with the inclusion and exclusion of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-propelled products. In the trials comparing ICS at a higher dose with ICS and LABA in combination, most outcomes favoured the combined inhaler. Only the combination inhaler, Seretide Evohaler, is slightly cheaper than the weighted mean cost of all types of ICS at increased dose except BDP 400 microg/day (including CFC-propelled products). Both the combination inhalers, Seretide Accuhaler and Symbicort Turbohaler, are more expensive than the weighted mean cost for all types of ICS at a two-fold increased dose. Compared with the lowest cost preparation for each ICS drug, all the combination inhalers are always more expensive than the ICS products at increased dose. CONCLUSIONS: the limited evidence available indicates that there are no consistent significant differences in effectiveness between the three ICS licensed for use in children at either low or high dose. BDP CFC-propelled products are often the cheapest ICS currently available at both low and high dose, and may remain so even when CFC-propelled products are excluded. Exclusion of CFC-propelled products increases the mean annual cost of all budesonide (BUD) and BDP, while the overall cost differences between the comparators diminish. There is very limited evidence available for the efficacy and safety of ICS and LABAs in children. From this limited evidence, there appear to be no significant clinical differences in effects between the use of a combination inhaler versus the same drugs in separate inhalers. There is a lack of evidence comparing ICS at a higher dose with ICS and LABA in combination and comparing the combination products with each other. In the absence of any evidence concerning the effectiveness of ICS at higher dose with ICS and LABA, a cost-consequence analysis gives mixed results. There are potential cost savings with the use of combination inhalers compared to separate inhalers. At present prices, the BUD/FF combination is more expensive than those containing FP/SAL, but it is not known whether there are clinically significant differences between them. A scoping review is required to assess the requirements for additional primary research on the clinical effectiveness of treatment for asthma in children under 5 years old. Such a review could also usefully include all treatment options, pharmacological and non-pharmacological, for asthma. A direct head-to-head trial that compares the two combination therapies of FP/SAL and BUD/FF is warranted, and it is important to assess whether the addition of a LABA to a lower dose of ICS could potentially be as effective as an increased dose of ICS alone, but also be steroid sparing. There is also a need for the long-term adverse events associated with ICS use to be assessed systematically. Future trials of treatment for chronic asthma in children should aim to standardise further the way in which outcome measures are defined. There should be a greater focus on patient-centred outcomes to provide a more meaningful estimation of the impact of treatment on asthma control. Methods of reporting also require standardisation.

BACKGROUND: Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) is a common side effect of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and is associated with increased risk of fracture and cardiovascular events (CV). Current standard treatment includes dietary control, phosphate binders and vitamin D. However, many patients do not have their parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcium and phosphate levels controlled by this regimen. Cinacalcet is the first of a new class of calcimimetic drugs which suppress PTH production. Although there is convincing evidence of the impact of cinacalcet on serum biomarkers, the long-term clinical implications of treatment are less clear. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-utility of cinacalcet as an addition to standard treatment of SHPT compared with standard treatment alone. METHODS: a Markov model was developed to estimate the incremental cost-utility of cinacalcet. Uncertainty was explored through extensive sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Compared with standard treatment, cinacalcet incurs average additional lifetime costs of pound21,167 per person and confers an additional 0.34 quality adjusted life years, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of pound61,890 (approximately euro89,000) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis showed that cinacalcet was only likely to be considered cost-effective if the relative risk of mortality for people with very high levels of PTH was 2.2 compared with people whose PTH reached target levels, or if drug costs were considerably reduced. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed cinacalcet was very unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay in the National Health Service (NHS). CONCLUSION: Unless the cost of cinacalcet is considerably reduced, it is unlikely to be considered a cost-effective treatment for people with SHPT.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant carmustine wafers (BCNU-W) and also of adjuvant and concomitant temozolomide (TMZ), compared with surgery with radiotherapy. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched up to August 2005. REVIEW METHODS: Included trials were critically appraised for key elements of internal and external validity. Relevant data were extracted and a narrative synthesis of the evidence produced. Where possible, data on absolute survival at a fixed time point were meta-analysed using a random effects model. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to assess the cost-utility of the two interventions. The model compared BCNU-W or TMZ separately with current standard treatment with surgery and radiotherapy. The simulated cohort had a mean age of 55 years and was modelled over 5 years. RESULTS: Two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (n = 32, n = 240) and two observational studies of BCNU-W compared with placebo wafers as adjuvant therapy to surgery and radiotherapy for newly diagnosed high-grade glioma were identified. All the studies were in adults and provided data on 193 patients who had received BCNU-W. The RCT findings excluded under 65-year-olds and those with a Karnofsky Performance Status of less than 60. The largest multi-centre RCT suggested a possible survival advantage with BCNU-W among a cohort of patients with grade III and IV tumours, adding a median of 2.3 months [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.5 to 5.1]. However, analysis using per-protocol, unstratified methods shows this difference to be not statistically significant (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.03, p = 0.08). Long-term follow-up suggests a significant survival advantage using unstratified analysis. No difference in progression-free survival (PFS) was demonstrated. Subgroup analysis of those with grade IV tumours also showed no significant survival advantage with BCNU-W [hazard ratio (HR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.11, p = 0.20, unstratified analysis]. It is estimated that the cost of surgery and radiotherapy, with follow-up, treatment of adverse effects and end of life care is around 17,000 pounds per patient. Treatment with BCNU-W adds an additional 6600 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of BCNU-W costs an additional 6.6 million pounds and confers an additional 122 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). On average, that is 6600 pounds per patient for 0.122 QALYs (6.3 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is 54,500 pounds/QALY. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, BCNU-W was not cost-effective in 89% of the simulations assuming a willingness to pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY. In 15% of simulations, BCNU-W was dominated (i.e. did more harm than good, conferring fewer QALYs at greater cost). The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) suggests that it is very unlikely to be the most cost-effective option at normal levels of willingness to pay (11% probability at 30,000 pounds/QALY), only becoming likely to be the most cost-effective option at much higher levels of willingness to pay (50% probability at 55,000 pounds/QALY). Two RCTs (n = 130, n = 573) and two observational studies were included, giving evidence for 429 adult patients receiving TMZ. Currently, TMZ is licensed for use in those with newly diagnosed grade IV gliomas only. The RCTs excluded those with lower performance status and, in the larger RCT, those older than 70 years. TMZ provides a small but statistically significant median survival benefit of 2.5 months (95% CI 2.0 to 3.8), giving an HR of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.75, p < 0.001). At 2 years, 26.5% of patients treated with TMZ were alive compared with 10.4% of those in the control arm. Median PFS is also enhanced with TMZ, giving a median 1.9 months' advantage (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7, p < 0.001). No analysis of the subgroup of patients with confirmed grade IV tumours was undertaken. Subgroup analysis of patients by O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) activity showed a significant treatment advantage for those with reduced MGMT activity but not for those with normal activity, although this analysis was based on a selected sample of patients and the test used has proved difficult to replicate. A median gain of 6.4 (95% CI 4.4 to 9.5) more life-months is seen with TMZ among those with reduced MGMT, giving an HR of 0.51 (p < 0.007). PFS is increased by a median of 4.4 months (95% CI 1.2 to 6.3), giving an HR of 0.48 (p = 0.001). The model shows a cost per patient for being treated with surgery, radiotherapy and including adverse effects of treatment and end of life care of around 17,000 pounds per patient. TMZ in the adjuvant and concomitant phase adds an additional cost of around 7800 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of TMZ costs an additional 7.8 million pounds and confers an additional 217 QALYs. For the average patient this is 7800 pounds for an additional 0.217 QALYs (11 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case ICER is 36,000 pounds/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses shows that TMZ was not cost-effective in 77% of the simulations. The CEAC suggests that there is a 23% chance that TMZ is the most cost-effective option at a willingness to pay level of 30,000 pounds/QALY, rising to be more cost-effective than no TMZ at slightly higher levels (50% probability at 35,000 pounds/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: BCNU-W has not been proven to confer a significant advantage in survival for patients with grade III tumours when treated with the drug, compared with placebo. There does not appear to be a survival advantage for patients with grade IV tumours. No increase in PFS has been shown. Limited evidence suggests a small but significant advantage in both overall survival and PFS with TMZ among a mixed population with grade IV and grade III (7-8%) tumours. However, it remains unclear whether this is true in grade IV tumours alone. On the basis of best available evidence, the authors consider that neither BCNU-W nor TMZ is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS decision-makers. However, data for the model were drawn from limited evidence of variable quality. Tumour type is clearly important in assessing patient prognosis with different treatments. Grade IV tumours are commonest and appear to have least chance of response. There were too few grade III tumours included to carry out a formal assessment, but they appear to respond better and drive results for both drugs. Future use of genetic and biomarkers may help identify subtypes which will respond, but current licensing indications do not specify these. Further research is suggested into the effectiveness of these drugs, and also into areas such as genetic markers, chemotherapy regimens, patient and carer quality of life, and patient views on survival advantages vs treatment disadvantages.

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant carmustine wafers (BCNU-W) and also of adjuvant and concomitant temozolomide (TMZ), compared with surgery with radiotherapy. Electronic databases were searched up to August 2005. Included trials were critically appraised for key elements of internal and external validity. Relevant data were extracted and a narrative synthesis of the evidence produced. Where possible, data on absolute survival at a fixed time point were meta-analysed using a random effects model. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to assess the cost-utility of the two interventions. The model compared BCNU-W or TMZ separately with current standard treatment with surgery and radiotherapy. The simulated cohort had a mean age of 55 years and was modelled over 5 years. Two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (n = 32, n = 240) and two observational studies of BCNU-W compared with placebo wafers as adjuvant therapy to surgery and radiotherapy for newly diagnosed high-grade glioma were identified. All the studies were in adults and provided data on 193 patients who had received BCNU-W. The RCT findings excluded under 65-year-olds and those with a Karnofsky Performance Status of less than 60. The largest multi-centre RCT suggested a possible survival advantage with BCNU-W among a cohort of patients with grade III and IV tumours, adding a median of 2.3 months [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.5 to 5.1]. However, analysis using per-protocol, unstratified methods shows this difference to be not statistically significant (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.03, p = 0.08). Long-term follow-up suggests a significant survival advantage using unstratified analysis. No difference in progression-free survival (PFS) was demonstrated. Subgroup analysis of those with grade IV tumours also showed no significant survival advantage with BCNU-W [hazard ratio (HR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.11, p = 0.20, unstratified analysis]. It is estimated that the cost of surgery and radiotherapy, with follow-up, treatment of adverse effects and end of life care is around 17,000 pounds per patient. Treatment with BCNU-W adds an additional 6600 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of BCNU-W costs an additional 6.6 million pounds and confers an additional 122 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). On average, that is 6600 pounds per patient for 0.122 QALYs (6.3 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is 54,500 pounds/QALY. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, BCNU-W was not cost-effective in 89% of the simulations assuming a willingness to pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY. In 15% of simulations, BCNU-W was dominated (i.e. did more harm than good, conferring fewer QALYs at greater cost). The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) suggests that it is very unlikely to be the most cost-effective option at normal levels of willingness to pay (11% probability at 30,000 pounds/QALY), only becoming likely to be the most cost-effective option at much higher levels of willingness to pay (50% probability at 55,000 pounds/QALY). Two RCTs (n = 130, n = 573) and two observational studies were included, giving evidence for 429 adult patients receiving TMZ. Currently, TMZ is licensed for use in those with newly diagnosed grade IV gliomas only. The RCTs excluded those with lower performance status and, in the larger RCT, those older than 70 years. TMZ provides a small but statistically significant median survival benefit of 2.5 months (95% CI 2.0 to 3.8), giving an HR of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.75, p. <. 0.001). At 2 years, 26.5% of patients treated with TMZ were alive compared with 10.4% of those in the control arm. Median PFS is also enhanced with TMZ, giving a median 1.9 months' advantage (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7, p. <. 0.001). No analysis of the subgroup of patients with confirmed grade IV tumours was undertaken. Subgroup analysis of patients by O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) activity showed a significant treatment advantage for those with reduced MGMT activity but not for those with normal activity, although this analysis was based on a selected sample of patients and the test used has proved difficult to replicate. A median gain of 6.4 (95% CI 4.4 to 9.5) more life-months is seen with TMZ among those with reduced MGMT, giving an HR of 0.51 (p. <. 0.007). PFS is increased by a median of 4.4 months (95% CI 1.2 to 6.3), giving an HR of 0.48 (p = 0.001). The model shows a cost per patient for being treated with surgery, radiotherapy and including adverse effects of treatment and end of life care of around 17,000 pounds per patient. TMZ in the adjuvant and concomitant phase adds an additional cost of around 7800 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of TMZ costs an additional 7.8 million pounds and confers an additional 217 QALYs. For the average patient this is 7800 pounds for an additional 0.217 QALYs (11 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case ICER is 36,000 pounds/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses shows that TMZ was not cost-effective in 77% of the simulations. The CEAC suggests that there is a 23% chance that TMZ is the most cost-effective option at a willingness to pay level of 30,000 pounds/QALY, rising to be more cost-effective than no TMZ at slightly higher levels (50% probability at 35,000 pounds/QALY). BCNU-W has not been proven to confer a significant advantage in survival for patients with grade III tumours when treated with the drug, compared with placebo. There does not appear to be a survival advantage for patients with grade IV tumours. No increase in PFS has been shown. Limited evidence suggests a small but significant advantage in both overall survival and PFS with TMZ among a mixed population with grade IV and grade III (7-8%) tumours. However, it remains unclear whether this is true in grade IV tumours alone. On the basis of best available evidence, the authors consider that neither BCNU-W nor TMZ is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS decision-makers. However, data for the model were drawn from limited evidence of variable quality. Tumour type is clearly important in assessing patient prognosis with different treatments. Grade IV tumours are commonest and appear to have least chance of response. There were too few grade III tumours included to carry out a formal assessment, but they appear to respond better and drive results for both drugs. Future use of genetic and biomarkers may help identify subtypes which will respond, but current licensing indications do not specify these. Further research is suggested into the effectiveness of these drugs, and also into areas such as genetic markers, chemotherapy regimens, patient and carer quality of life, and patient views on survival advantages vs treatment disadvantages.

Objectives: to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006. Review methods: Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p < 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional £21, 167 and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £61,890/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in ah ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from £39,000 to £92,000/QALY. Conclusions: Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

Objectives: to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006. Review methods: Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p. <. 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional £21, 167 and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £61,890/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in ah ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from £39,000 to £92,000/QALY. Conclusions: Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

To establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006. Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p. <. 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional 21,167 pounds and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 61,890 pounds/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in an ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from 39,000 pounds to 92,000 pounds/QALY. Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Conventional treatments for atopic eczema include topical corticosteroids (TCS) and emollients. Pimecrolimus, an immunosuppressant, was licensed in the U.K. in 2003 as an alternative treatment of mild to moderate atopic eczema. OBJECTIVES: to assess the cost-utility of pimecrolimus as a treatment for mild and moderate atopic eczema when compared with conventional treatments which use TCS and emollients. METHODS: a Markov state-transition model was developed to represent the cyclical nature of atopic eczema and provide an economic analysis of cost-utility for treatment alternatives from the perspective of a third party payer (U.K. National Health Service). A range of methods was used to obtain data for transition probabilities, costs and quality of life. These included a systematic review of published effectiveness data, expert opinion, and a utility study conducted by the authors. Separate cohort analyses were modelled to distinguish between children and adult populations and between differing treatment patterns for facial and body eczema. One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (using Monte-Carlo simulation) were performed. RESULTS: Baseline cost-utility outputs from the model show that, in all tested scenarios, TCS dominate pimecrolimus (i.e. TCS are both cheaper and more effective). However, the differences in benefits between treatments output by the model are very small. Sensitivity analyses highlight the importance of cost variations in pimecrolimus. Where pimecrolimus is compared with emollient only it is probably cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30 000 UK pounds per quality-adjusted life year. CONCLUSIONS: There are likely to be few situations in which the use of pimecrolimus for the treatment of atopic eczema can be justified on economic grounds. Exceptions are likely to be in cases where TCS have been shown to be ineffective, unacceptable due to adverse events, or where a patient is unwilling to accept TCS treatment despite appropriate education and support and emollient alone is the alternative clinical option.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C is an important public health problem. The need for more intensified action to identify those infected with the virus has been recognized. Primary care is an important setting for case finding. OBJECTIVES: to estimate the cost utility of case finding for hepatitis C in primary care, specifically amongst former injecting drug users (IDUs). METHODS: a Markov model was developed to investigate the impact of case finding and treatment on progression of hepatitis C (HCV) in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 former IDUs. Comparison was made with a similar cohort in which no systematic case finding was implemented but spontaneous presentation for testing was allowed. Two scenarios were explored. The testing protocol utilized ELISA and PCR tests. Those eligible for treatment received combination therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Parameter estimates were obtained from literature searches and experts in the field. RESULTS: Few estimates of the uptake of HCV testing in primary care are available. Cost utility was estimated at around 16,000 pounds sterling/QALY for both scenarios. At a willingness to pay of 30,000 pounds sterling/QALY, there is approximately a 75% probability that the initiatives would be cost-effective. Choices regarding the utility data, discounting and the rates of spontaneous/re-presentation outside of a case-finding programme appear to be important areas of uncertainty in this model. CONCLUSION: Case finding for HCV in primary care is likely to be considered cost-effective but substantial uncertainties remain. Further research is needed on different approaches to case finding in primary care.

Objectives: to assess what is known about the effectiveness, safety, affordability, cost-effectiveness and organisational impact of endoscopic surveillance in preventing morbidity and mortality from adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's oesophagus. In addition, to identify important areas of uncertainty in current knowledge for these programmes and to identify areas for further research. Data sources: El ectronic databases up to March 2004. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK. Review methods: a systematic review of the effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus was carried out following methodological guidelines. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK were invited to contribute to a workshop held in London in May 2004 on surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. Small group discussion, using a modified nominal group technique, identified key areas of uncertainty and ranked them for importance. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a surveillance programme for patients with Barrett's oesophagus compared with no surveillance and to quantify important areas of uncertainty. The model estimates incremental cost-utility and expected value of perfect information for an endoscopic surveillance programme compared with no surveillance. A cohort of 1000 55-year-old men with a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus was modelled for 20 years. The base case used costs in 2004 and took the perspective of the UK NHS. Estimates of expected value of information were included. Results: No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or well-designed non-ra ndomised controlled studies were identified, although two comparative studies and numerous case series were found. Reaching clear conclusions from these studies was impossible owing to lack of RCT evidence. In addition, there was incomplete reporting of data particularly about cause of death, and changes in surveillance practice over time were mentioned but not explained in several studies. Three cost-utility analyses of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus were identified, of which one was a further development of a previous study by the same group. Both sets of authors used Markov modelling and confined their analysis to 50- or 55-year-old white men with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) symptoms. The models were run either for 30 years or to age 75 years. As these models are American, there are almost certainly differences in practice from the UK and possible underlying differences in the epidemiology and natural history of the disease. The costs of the procedures involved are also likely to be very different. The expert workshop identified the following key areas of uncertainty that needed to be addressed: the contribution of risk factors for the progression of Barrett's oesophagus to the development of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus; possible techniques for use in the general population to identify patients with high risk of adenocarcinoma; effectiveness of treatments for Barrett's oesophagus in altering cancer incidence; how best to identify those at risk in order to target treatment; whether surveillance programmes should take place at all; and whether there are clinical subgroups at higher risk of adenocarcinoma. Our Markov model suggests that the base case scenario of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus at 3-yearly intervals, with low-grade dysplasia surveyed yearly and HGD 3-monthly, does more harm than good when compared with no surveillance. Surveillance produces fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for higher cost than no surveillance, therefore it is dominated by no surveillance. The cost per cancer identified approaches £45,000 in the surveillance arm and there is no apparent survival advantage owing to high recurrence rates and increased mortality due to more oesophagectomies in this arm. Non-surveillance continues to cost less and result in better quality of life whatever the surveillance intervals for Barrett's oesophagus and dysplastic states and whatever the costs (including none) attached to endoscopy and biopsy as the surveillance test. The probabilistic analyses assess the overall uncertainty in the model. According to this, it is very unlikely that surveillance will be cost-effective even at relatively high levels of willingness to pay. The simulation showed that, in the majority of model runs, non-surveillance continued to cost less and result in better quality of life than surveillance. At the population level (i.e. people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales), a value of £6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus using expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analyses, if the surveillance is assumed to be relevant over 10 years. As with the one-way sensitivity analyses, the partial EVPI highlighted recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (ACO) after surgery and time taken for ACO to become symptomatic as particularly important parameters in the model. Conclusions: the systematic review concludes that there is insufficient evidence available to assess the clinical effectiveness of surveillance programmes of Barrett's oesophagus. There are numerous gaps in the evidence, of which the lack of RCT data is the major one. The expert workshop reflected these gaps in the range of topics raised as important in answering the question of the effectiveness of surveillance. Previous models of cost-effectiveness have most recently shown that surveillance programmes either do more harm than good compared with no surveillance or are unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay. Our cost-utility model has shown that, across a range of values for the various parameters that have been chosen to reflect uncertainty in the inputs, it is likely that surveillance programmes do more harm than good - costing more and conferring lower quality of life than no surveillance. Probabilistic analysis shows that, in most cases, surveillance does more harm and costs more than no surveillance. It is unlikely, but still possible, that surveillance may prove to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, however, shows that surveillance is unlikely to be cost-effective at either the 'usual' level of willingness to pay (£20,000-30,000 per QALY) or at much higher levels. The expected value of perfect information at the population level is £6.5 million. Future research should target both the overall effectiveness of surveillance and the individual elements that contribute to a surveillance programme, particularly the performance of the test and the effectiveness of treatment for both Barrett's oesophagus and ACO. In addition, of particular importance is the clarification of the natural history of Barrett's oesophagus. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2006. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVES: to assess what is known about the effectiveness, safety, affordability, cost-effectiveness and organisational impact of endoscopic surveillance in preventing morbidity and mortality from adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's oesophagus. In addition, to identify important areas of uncertainty in current knowledge for these programmes and to identify areas for further research. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases up to March 2004. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK. REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review of the effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus was carried out following methodological guidelines. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK were invited to contribute to a workshop held in London in May 2004 on surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. Small group discussion, using a modified nominal group technique, identified key areas of uncertainty and ranked them for importance. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a surveillance programme for patients with Barrett's oesophagus compared with no surveillance and to quantify important areas of uncertainty. The model estimates incremental cost--utility and expected value of perfect information for an endoscopic surveillance programme compared with no surveillance. A cohort of 1000 55-year-old men with a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus was modelled for 20 years. The base case used costs in 2004 and took the perspective of the UK NHS. Estimates of expected value of information were included. RESULTS: No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or well-designed non-randomised controlled studies were identified, although two comparative studies and numerous case series were found. Reaching clear conclusions from these studies was impossible owing to lack of RCT evidence. In addition, there was incomplete reporting of data particularly about cause of death, and changes in surveillance practice over time were mentioned but not explained in several studies. Three cost--utility analyses of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus were identified, of which one was a further development of a previous study by the same group. Both sets of authors used Markov modelling and confined their analysis to 50- or 55-year-old white men with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) symptoms. The models were run either for 30 years or to age 75 years. As these models are American, there are almost certainly differences in practice from the UK and possible underlying differences in the epidemiology and natural history of the disease. The costs of the procedures involved are also likely to be very different. The expert workshop identified the following key areas of uncertainty that needed to be addressed: the contribution of risk factors for the progression of Barrett's oesophagus to the development of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus; possible techniques for use in the general population to identify patients with high risk of adenocarcinoma; effectiveness of treatments for Barrett's oesophagus in altering cancer incidence; how best to identify those at risk in order to target treatment; whether surveillance programmes should take place at all; and whether there are clinical subgroups at higher risk of adenocarcinoma. Our Markov model suggests that the base case scenario of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus at 3-yearly intervals, with low-grade dysplasia surveyed yearly and HGD 3-monthly, does more harm than good when compared with no surveillance. Surveillance produces fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for higher cost than no surveillance, therefore it is dominated by no surveillance. The cost per cancer identified approaches pound 45,000 in the surveillance arm and there is no apparent survival advantage owing to high recurrence rates and increased mortality due to more oesophagectomies in this arm. Non-surveillance continues to cost less and result in better quality of life whatever the surveillance intervals for Barrett's oesophagus and dysplastic states and whatever the costs (including none) attached to endoscopy and biopsy as the surveillance test. The probabilistic analyses assess the overall uncertainty in the model. According to this, it is very unlikely that surveillance will be cost-effective even at relatively high levels of willingness to pay. The simulation showed that, in the majority of model runs, non-surveillance continued to cost less and result in better quality of life than surveillance. At the population level (i.e. people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales), a value of pound 6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus using expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analyses, if the surveillance is assumed to be relevant over 10 years. As with the one-way sensitivity analyses, the partial EVPI highlighted recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (ACO) after surgery and time taken for ACO to become symptomatic as particularly important parameters in the model. CONCLUSIONS: the systematic review concludes that there is insufficient evidence available to assess the clinical effectiveness of surveillance programmes of Barrett's oesophagus. There are numerous gaps in the evidence, of which the lack of RCT data is the major one. The expert workshop reflected these gaps in the range of topics raised as important in answering the question of the effectiveness of surveillance. Previous models of cost-effectiveness have most recently shown that surveillance programmes either do more harm than good compared with no surveillance or are unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay. Our cost--utility model has shown that, across a range of values for the various parameters that have been chosen to reflect uncertainty in the inputs, it is likely that surveillance programmes do more harm than good -- costing more and conferring lower quality of life than no surveillance. Probabilistic analysis shows that, in most cases, surveillance does more harm and costs more than no surveillance. It is unlikely, but still possible, that surveillance may prove to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, however, shows that surveillance is unlikely to be cost-effective at either the 'usual' level of willingness to pay ( pound 20,000-30,000 per QALY) or at much higher levels. The expected value of perfect information at the population level is pound 6.5 million. Future research should target both the overall effectiveness of surveillance and the individual elements that contribute to a surveillance programme, particularly the performance of the test and the effectiveness of treatment for both Barrett's oesophagus and ACO. In addition, of particular importance is the clarification of the natural history of Barrett's oesophagus.

To assess what is known about the effectiveness, safety, affordability, cost-effectiveness and organisational impact of endoscopic surveillance in preventing morbidity and mortality from adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's oesophagus. In addition, to identify important areas of uncertainty in current knowledge for these programmes and to identify areas for further research. Electronic databases up to March 2004. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK. A systematic review of the effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus was carried out following methodological guidelines. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK were invited to contribute to a workshop held in London in May 2004 on surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. Small group discussion, using a modified nominal group technique, identified key areas of uncertainty and ranked them for importance. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a surveillance programme for patients with Barrett's oesophagus compared with no surveillance and to quantify important areas of uncertainty. The model estimates incremental cost--utility and expected value of perfect information for an endoscopic surveillance programme compared with no surveillance. A cohort of 1000 55-year-old men with a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus was modelled for 20 years. The base case used costs in 2004 and took the perspective of the UK NHS. Estimates of expected value of information were included. No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or well-designed non-randomised controlled studies were identified, although two comparative studies and numerous case series were found. Reaching clear conclusions from these studies was impossible owing to lack of RCT evidence. In addition, there was incomplete reporting of data particularly about cause of death, and changes in surveillance practice over time were mentioned but not explained in several studies. Three cost--utility analyses of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus were identified, of which one was a further development of a previous study by the same group. Both sets of authors used Markov modelling and confined their analysis to 50- or 55-year-old white men with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) symptoms. The models were run either for 30 years or to age 75 years. As these models are American, there are almost certainly differences in practice from the UK and possible underlying differences in the epidemiology and natural history of the disease. The costs of the procedures involved are also likely to be very different. The expert workshop identified the following key areas of uncertainty that needed to be addressed: the contribution of risk factors for the progression of Barrett's oesophagus to the development of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus; possible techniques for use in the general population to identify patients with high risk of adenocarcinoma; effectiveness of treatments for Barrett's oesophagus in altering cancer incidence; how best to identify those at risk in order to target treatment; whether surveillance programmes should take place at all; and whether there are clinical subgroups at higher risk of adenocarcinoma. Our Markov model suggests that the base case scenario of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus at 3-yearly intervals, with low-grade dysplasia surveyed yearly and HGD 3-monthly, does more harm than good when compared with no surveillance. Surveillance produces fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for higher cost than no surveillance, therefore it is dominated by no surveillance. The cost per cancer identified approaches pound 45,000 in the surveillance arm and there is no apparent survival advantage owing to high recurrence rates and increased mortality due to more oesophagectomies in this arm. Non-surveillance continues to cost less and result in better quality of life whatever the surveillance intervals for Barrett's oesophagus and dysplastic states and whatever the costs (including none) attached to endoscopy and biopsy as the surveillance test. The probabilistic analyses assess the overall uncertainty in the model. According to this, it is very unlikely that surveillance will be cost-effective even at relatively high levels of willingness to pay. The simulation showed that, in the majority of model runs, non-surveillance continued to cost less and result in better quality of life than surveillance. At the population level (i.e. people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales), a value of pound 6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus using expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analyses, if the surveillance is assumed to be relevant over 10 years. As with the one-way sensitivity analyses, the partial EVPI highlighted recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (ACO) after surgery and time taken for ACO to become symptomatic as particularly important parameters in the model. The systematic review concludes that there is insufficient evidence available to assess the clinical effectiveness of surveillance programmes of Barrett's oesophagus. There are numerous gaps in the evidence, of which the lack of RCT data is the major one. The expert workshop reflected these gaps in the range of topics raised as important in answering the question of the effectiveness of surveillance. Previous models of cost-effectiveness have most recently shown that surveillance programmes either do more harm than good compared with no surveillance or are unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay. Our cost--utility model has shown that, across a range of values for the various parameters that have been chosen to reflect uncertainty in the inputs, it is likely that surveillance programmes do more harm than good -- costing more and conferring lower quality of life than no surveillance. Probabilistic analysis shows that, in most cases, surveillance does more harm and costs more than no surveillance. It is unlikely, but still possible, that surveillance may prove to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, however, shows that surveillance is unlikely to be cost-effective at either the 'usual' level of willingness to pay ( pound 20,000-30,000 per QALY) or at much higher levels. The expected value of perfect information at the population level is pound 6.5 million. Future research should target both the overall effectiveness of surveillance and the individual elements that contribute to a surveillance programme, particularly the performance of the test and the effectiveness of treatment for both Barrett's oesophagus and ACO. In addition, of particular importance is the clarification of the natural history of Barrett's oesophagus.

Objectives: to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of testing for hepatitis C (HCV) among former injecting drug users (IDUs). Data sources: Electronic databases 1996-October 2004. Trent Regional Database Study. Routine UK mortality data. Review methods: a decision analytic model was developed to investigate the impact of case-finding and treatment on progression of HCV disease in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 people. This was compared with a cohort in whom no systematic case-finding is implemented but spontaneous presentation for testing is allowed to occur. A group of epidemiological and clinical experts informed the structure of the model, which has three main components: (1) testing and diagnosis, (2) treatment, and (3) long-term consequences of infection. A fourth component, case-finding strategies, examines the potential impact of case-finding in three settings: prisons, general practice and drug services. Results: Case-finding for HCV is likely to prevent, for 1000 people approached, three cases of decompensated cirrhosis, three deaths due to HCV and one case of hepatocellular cancer (at 30 years). Twenty-five additional people are likely to undergo combination therapy as a result of initial case-finding. One liver transplant is likely to be prevented for 10,000 people included in case-finding. Case-finding is likely to cost, in the general case, around £760,000 more than a policy of not case-finding. The total cost of either strategy is high and driven predominantly by the cost of treatment with combination therapy (the costs of long-term consequences are heavily discounted owing to the duration of the model). Systematically offering testing to 1000 people would cost around £70,000. In terms of life-years gained, case-finding is likely to result in an additional life-year gained for an investment of £20,084. Taking impacts on quality of life into account gives an estimate for the cost-utility of case-finding as £16,514 per QALY the probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that, if NHS policy makers view £30,000 per QALY as an acceptable return on investment, there is a 74% probability that case-finding for HCV would be considered cost-effective. At £30,000 per QALY, the probability that case-finding would be considered cost-effective is 64%. In all analyses, the probability of case-finding being considered cost-effective at a level of £30,000 per QALY was high. Case-finding in drug services is likely to be the most expensive, owing to the high prevalence of cases in the tested population. Correspondingly, benefits are highest for this strategy and cost-effectiveness is similar, in average terms, to the general case. Case-finding in general practice by offering testing to the whole population aged 30-54 years is, paradoxically, estimated to be the least expensive option as only a small number of people accept the offer of testing and HCV prevalence in this group is much higher than would be expected from the general population. Two approaches to case-finding in prison were considered, based on the results of studies in Dartmoor and the Isle of Wight prisons. These differed substantially in the prevalence of cases identified in the tested populations. The analysis based on data from Dartmoor prison had the least favourable average cost-effectiveness of the strategies considered (£20,000 per QALY). Subgroup analyses based on duration of infection show that case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective in people whose infection is more long-standing and who are consequently at greater risk of progression. In people who were infected more than 20 years previously, case-finding yields benefits at around £15,000 per QALY Treatment effectiveness was modelled using estimates from randomised controlled trials and lower rates of viral response may be seen in practice. However, estimates of cost-effectiveness remained below £30,000 for all levels of treatment effectiveness above 58% of those shown in the relevant trials. The value of information analysis, based on assumptions that 10,000 people might be eligible for case-finding and that programmes would run for 15 years, suggests that the maximum value of further research into case-finding is in excess of £19 million. Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis shows that the utility estimates used in the model eclipse all other factors in terms of importance to parameter uncertainty. This is not surprising, since the point estimates for differences in utility between states and across the arms of the model are small. Conclusions: Case-finding for hepatitis C is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS commissioners. Although there remains considerable uncertainty, it appears unlikely that cost-effectiveness would exceed the levels considered acceptable. Further improvements in the effectiveness of treatments to slow or halt disease progression are likely to improve the cost-effectiveness of case-finding. Case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective if targeted at people whose HCV disease is probably more advanced. Further empirical work is required to specify, in practice, different approaches to case-finding in appropriate settings and to evaluate their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness directly. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2006. All rights reserved.

To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of testing for hepatitis C (HCV) among former injecting drug users (IDUs). Electronic databases 1996-October 2004. Trent Regional Database Study. Routine UK mortality data. A decision analytic model was developed to investigate the impact of case-finding and treatment on progression of HCV disease in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 people. This was compared with a cohort in whom no systematic case-finding is implemented but spontaneous presentation for testing is allowed to occur. A group of epidemiological and clinical experts informed the structure of the model, which has three main components: (1) testing and diagnosis, (2) treatment, and (3) long-term consequences of infection. A fourth component, case-finding strategies, examines the potential impact of case-finding in three settings: prisons, general practice and drug services. Case-finding for HCV is likely to prevent, for 1000 people approached, three cases of decompensated cirrhosis, three deaths due to HCV and one case of hepatocellular cancer (at 30 years). Twenty-five additional people are likely to undergo combination therapy as a result of initial case-finding. One liver transplant is likely to be prevented for 10,000 people included in case-finding. Case-finding is likely to cost, in the general case, around pounds sterling 760,000 more than a policy of not case-finding. The total cost of either strategy is high and driven predominantly by the cost of treatment with combination therapy (the costs of long-term consequences are heavily discounted owing to the duration of the model). Systematically offering testing to 1000 people would cost around pounds sterling 70,000. In terms of life-years gained, case-finding is likely to result in an additional life-year gained for an investment of pounds sterling 20,084. Taking impacts on quality of life into account gives an estimate for the cost-utility of case-finding as pounds sterling 16,514 per QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that, if NHS policy makers view pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY as an acceptable return on investment, there is a 74% probability that case-finding for HCV would be considered cost-effective. At pounds sterling 20,000 per QALY, the probability that case-finding would be considered cost-effective is 64%. In all analyses, the probability of case-finding being considered cost-effective at a level of pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY was high. Case-finding in drug services is likely to be the most expensive, owing to the high prevalence of cases in the tested population. Correspondingly, benefits are highest for this strategy and cost-effectiveness is similar, in average terms, to the general case. Case-finding in general practice by offering testing to the whole population aged 30-54 years is, paradoxically, estimated to be the least expensive option as only a small number of people accept the offer of testing and HCV prevalence in this group is much higher than would be expected from the general population. Two approaches to case-finding in prison were considered, based on the results of studies in Dartmoor and the Isle of Wight prisons. These differed substantially in the prevalence of cases identified in the tested populations. The analysis based on data from Dartmoor prison had the least favourable average cost-effectiveness of the strategies considered (pounds sterling 20,000 per QALY). Subgroup analyses based on duration of infection show that case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective in people whose infection is more long-standing and who are consequently at greater risk of progression. In people who were infected more than 20 years previously, case-finding yields benefits at around pounds sterling 15,000 per QALY. Treatment effectiveness was modelled using estimates from randomised controlled trials and lower rates of viral response may be seen in practice. However, estimates of cost-effectiveness remained below pounds sterling 30,000 for all levels of treatment effectiveness above 58% of those shown in the relevant trials. The value of information analysis, based on assumptions that 10,000 people might be eligible for case-finding and that programmes would run for 15 years, suggests that the maximum value of further research into case-finding is in excess of pounds sterling 19 million. Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis shows that the utility estimates used in the model eclipse all other factors in terms of importance to parameter uncertainty. This is not surprising, since the point estimates for differences in utility between states and across the arms of the model are small. Case-finding for hepatitis C is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS commissioners. Although there remains considerable uncertainty, it appears unlikely that cost-effectiveness would exceed the levels considered acceptable. Further improvements in the effectiveness of treatments to slow or halt disease progression are likely to improve the cost-effectiveness of case-finding. Case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective if targeted at people whose HCV disease is probably more advanced. Further empirical work is required to specify, in practice, different approaches to case-finding in appropriate settings and to evaluate their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness directly.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber pacemakers versus single-chamber atrial or single-chamber ventricular pacemakers in the treatment of bradycardia due to sick sinus syndrome (SSS) or atrioventricular block (AVB). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases and relevant Internet sites. Contact with device manufacturers and experts in the field. REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review was carried out of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). The quality of selected studies was appraised using standard frameworks. Meta-analyses, using random effects models, were carried out where appropriate. Limited exploration of heterogeneity was possible. Critical appraisal of economic evaluations was carried out using two frameworks. A decision-analytic model was developed using a Markov approach, to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber versus ventricular or atrial pacing over 5 and 10 years as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: the searches retrieved a systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness published in 2002, four parallel group RCTs and 28 cross-over trials. Dual-chamber pacing was associated with lower rates of atrial fibrillation, particularly in SSS, than ventricular pacing, and prevents pacemaker syndrome. Higher rates of atrial fibrillation were seen with dual-chamber pacing than with atrial pacing. Complications occurred more frequently in dual-chamber pacemaker insertion. The cost of a dual-chamber system, over 5 years, including cost of complications and subsequent clinical events in the population, was estimated to be around 7400 pounds. The overall cost difference between single and dual systems is not large over this period: around 700 pounds more for dual-chamber devices. The cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber compared with ventricular pacing was estimated to be around 8500 pounds per QALY in AVB and 9500 pounds in SSS over 5 years, and around 5500 pounds per QALY in both populations over 10 years. Under more conservative assumptions, the cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber pacing is around 30,000 pounds per QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that, under the base-case assumptions, dual-chamber pacing is likely to be considered cost-effective at levels of willingness to pay that are generally considered acceptable by policy makers. In contrast, atrial pacing may be cost-effective compared with dual-chamber pacing. CONCLUSIONS: Dual-chamber pacing results in small but potentially important benefits in populations with SSS and/or AVB compared with ventricular pacemakers. Pacemaker syndrome is a crucial factor in determining cost-effectiveness; however, difficulties in standardising diagnosis and measurement of severity make it difficult to quantify. Dual-chamber pacing is in common usage in the UK. Recipients are more likely to be younger. Insufficient evidence is currently available to inform policy on specific groups who may benefit most from pacing with dual-chamber devices. Further important research is underway. Outstanding research priorities include the economic evaluation of UKPACE studies of the classification, diagnosis and utility associated with pacemaker syndrome and evidence on the effectiveness of pacemakers in children.

OBJECTIVES: to consider the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pimecrolimus for mild to moderate atopic eczema and tacrolimus for moderate to severe atopic eczema compared with current standard treatment in adults and children. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases. Experts and the manufacturers of these agents were also approached for information. REVIEW METHODS: the systematic review was carried out using standard methodological guidelines and a stringent quality assessment strategy. A state transition (Markov) model was developed to estimate cost--utility of tacrolimus and pimecrolimus separately, compared with current standard practice with topical corticosteroids, (a) as first-line treatment and (b) as second-line treatment. Pimecrolimus was also compared to emollients only. RESULTS: the pimecrolimus trial reports were of varying quality; however when compared with a placebo (emollient), pimecrolimus was found to be more effective and to provide quality of life improvements. There is very little evidence available about pimecrolimus compared with topical corticosteroids. Compared with a placebo (emollient), both 0.03% and 0.1% tacrolimus were found to be more effective. Compared with a mild corticosteroid, 0.03% tacrolimus is more effective in children as measured by a 90% or better improvement in the Physician's Global Evaluation (PGE). Compared with potent topical corticosteroids, no significant difference in effectiveness is seen with 0.1% tacrolimus as measured by a 75% or greater improvement in the PGE. Minor application site adverse effects are common with tacrolimus. However, this did not lead to increased rates of withdrawal from treatment in trial populations. The PenTag economic model demonstrates a large degree of uncertainty, which was explored in both deterministic and stochastic analyses. This is the case for the cost-effectiveness of pimecrolimus and tacrolimus in first- or second-line use compared with topical steroids. In all cases immunosuppressant regimes were estimated to be more costly than alternatives and differences in benefits to be small and subject to considerable uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: There is limited evidence from a small number of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that pimecrolimus is more effective than placebo treatment in controlling mild to moderate atopic eczema. Although greater than for pimecrolimus, the evidence base for tacrolimus in moderate to severe atopic eczema is also limited. At both 0.1% and 0.03% potencies, tacrolimus appears to be more effective than the placebo treatment and mild topical corticosteroids. However, these are not the most clinically relevant comparators. Compared with potent topical corticosteroids, no significant difference was shown. Short-term adverse effects with both immunosuppressants are relatively common, but appear to be mild. Experience of long-term use of the agents is lacking so the risk of rare but serious adverse effects remains unknown. No conclusions can be confidently drawn about the cost-effectiveness of pimecrolimus or tacrolimus compared with active topical corticosteroid comparators. Areas for further research should focus on the effectiveness and safety of the treatments through good-quality RCTs and further economic analysis.

OBJECTIVE: to assess the cost effectiveness of the second-generation surgical treatments for heavy menstrual bleeding (microwave and thermal balloon endometrial ablation) compared with existing endometrial ablation techniques (transcervical resection and rollerball, alone or in combination) and hysterectomy. DESIGN: a state transition (Markov) cost-utility economic model. POPULATION: Women with heavy menstrual bleeding. METHODS: a Markov model was developed using spreadsheet software. Transition probabilities, costs and quality of life data were obtained from a systematic review of effectiveness undertaken by the authors, from published sources, and expert opinion. Cost data were obtained from the literature and from a NHS trust hospital. Indirect comparison of thermal balloon endometrial ablation versus microwave endometrial ablation or either second-generation endometrial ablation method versus hysterectomy, and comparison of second-generation versus first-generation techniques were carried out from the perspective of health service payers. The effects of uncertainty were explored through extensive one-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost effectiveness ratios based on cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, and cost effectiveness acceptability curves. RESULTS: Compared with first-generation techniques, both microwave and thermal balloon endometrial ablation cost less and accrued more QALYs. Hysterectomy was more expensive, but accrued more QALYs than all endometrial ablation methods. Baseline results showed that differences between microwave endometrial ablation and thermal balloon endometrial ablation were slight. Sensitivity analyses showed that small changes in values may have a marked effect on cost effectiveness. Probabilistic simulation highlighted the uncertainty in comparisons between different endometrial ablation options, particularly between second-generation techniques. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations in available data, the analysis suggests that second-generation techniques are likely to be more cost effective than first-generation techniques in most cases. Hysterectomy, where a woman finds this option acceptable, continues to be a very cost effective procedure compared with all endometrial ablation methods.

OR methods and tools are being increasingly applied within the health services domain to support objective decision-making for the effective and efficient provision of resources. Healthcare modelling, however, is beset with many challenges and this paper examines a number of issues that define the primary challenges faced by the modeller in this field. It is fair to say that their resolution determines the likely success or failure of healthcare modelling in general. Working with a number of participating health service organizations, a proposed framework towards successful implementation has evolved and is presented in this paper.