Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of mortality across the Caribbean and similar regions. Structural determinants include a marked increase in the dependency on food imports, and the proliferation of processed foods, including sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). We focused on Jamaica as a case study and the health challenge of SSBs, and situated contemporary actions, experiences and policies within their historical context to investigate underlying drivers of commercial determinants of health and attempts to counter them. We asked: how can a historical perspective of the drivers of high level SSB consumption in Jamaica contribute to an enhanced understanding of the context of public health policies aimed at reducing their intake?.
Methods: an ethnographic approach with remote data collection included online semi-structured interviews and workshops with 22 local experts and practitioners of health, agriculture and nutrition in Jamaica and attending relevant regional public webinars on SSBs and NCD action in the Caribbean. Our analysis was situated within a review of historical studies of Caribbean food economies with focus on the twentieth century. Jamaican and UK-based researchers collected and ethnographically analysed the data, and discussed findings with the wider transdisciplinary team.
Results: We emphasise three key areas in which historical events have shaped contextual factors of SSB consumption. Trade privileged sugar as a cash crop over food production during Jamaica’s long colonial history, and trade deregulation since the 1980s through structural adjustment opened markets to transnational companies. These changes increased Jamaican receptiveness to the mass advertisement and marketing of these companies, whilst long-standing power imbalances hampered taxation and regulation in contemporary public health actions. Civil society efforts were important for promoting structural changes to curb overconsumption of SSBs and decentring such entrenched power relations.
Conclusion: the contemporary challenge of SSBs in Jamaica is a poignant case study of commercial determinants of health and the important context of global market-driven economies and the involvement of private sector interests in public health policies and governance. Historically contextualising these determinants is paramount to making sense of the sugar ecology in Jamaica today and can help elucidate entrenched power dynamics and their key actors.

AbstractBackgroundRemission of type 2 diabetes through weight loss is possible in a high proportion of persons with a recent diagnosis, but a major challenge is achieving sufficient weight loss.ObjectivesIn the first study of this type in the Caribbean, we investigated factors associated with successful weight loss in adults in a diabetes remission intervention. We hypothesized that differences in social support may have influenced differences in weight loss achieved by participants in the Barbados Diabetes Reversal Study (BDRS).MethodsA comparative case study was conducted. Quantitative data for the primary outcome measure of weight reduction (the participants’ baseline and 8-month weights) were assessed to identify the 6 participants with the highest and 6 participants with the lowest weight loss. The 8-week (low-calorie diet phase) and 8-month (weight maintenance phase) interview transcripts for each participant were then analysed via qualitative thematic analysis to explore factors related to social support.ResultsInformal and formal support were identified for both categories of participants. Cases were similar with respect to their sources of support however dissimilarities were found in (1) the depth of support received; (2) access to supportive environments and (3) diversity of social supportive networks. Participants in the top weight loss group reported consistency in the levels of support received over the low-calorie diet and weight maintenance phases of the study while the converse was true for those of the bottom weight loss group.ConclusionStudy findings suggest that individuals aiming at type 2 diabetes remission benefit from strong social support networks. These networks provide tangible assistance and facilitate the sharing and discussion of strategies for weight reduction. Future studies should facilitate in-depth understanding of how formal and informal supportive networks can aid sustained dietary diabetes remission and long-term weight maintenance.

Globalized food systems are a major driver of climate change, biodiversity loss, environmental degradation, and the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity in society. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are particularly sensitive to the negative effects of rapid environmental change, with many also exhibiting a heavy reliance on food imports and high burdens of nutrition-related disease, resulting in calls to (re)localize their food systems. Such a transition represents a complex challenge, with adaptation interventions in one part of the food system contingent on the success of interventions in other parts. To help address this challenge, we used group model-building techniques from the science of system dynamics to engage food system stakeholders in Caribbean and Pacific SIDS. Our aim was to understand the drivers of unhealthy and unsustainable food systems in SIDS, and the potential role that increased local food production could play in transformative adaptation. We present two causal loop diagrams (CLDs) considered helpful in designing resilience-enhancing interventions in local food systems. These CLDs represent 'dynamic hypotheses' and provide starting points that can be adapted to local contexts for identifying food system factors, understanding the interactions between them, and co-creating and implementing adaptation interventions, particularly in SIDS. The results can help guide understanding of complexity, assist in the co-creation of interventions, and reduce the risk of maladaptive consequences.

There is a scarcity of research on building nutrition-sensitive value chains (NSVCs) to improve diets and nutrition outcomes of populations in the Caribbean. This study contributes to filling this research gap by outlining a participatory approach to evaluating a NSVC model for “farm to fork” (F2F) school feeding in the Eastern Caribbean Island of St. Kitts. Using a combined group model building (GMB) and theory of change (ToC) approach, policy actors and other stakeholders (n = 37) across the school feeding value chain were guided through a facilitated process to evaluate the ToC underlying a series of F2F interventions designed to enhance childhood nutrition. Stakeholders at the workshop engaged collaboratively to create a causal map of interconnected “system factors” that help explain behaviors contributing to unhealthy eating among children that extended well-beyond the original F2F project ToC that had been used to inform interventions. Through this facilitated GMB process, stakeholders proposed additional food system interventions, and identified multiple “impact pathways” and “mediating influences” underlying local availability and consumption of nutritious foods in local school environments. Workshop participants were also able to identify leverage points where community-level efforts, alongside research interventions, may ensure that initiatives for building local NSVCs are ultimately institutionalized. Results of this study suggest that developing NSVCs for school feeding and food systems in the Caribbean requires both locally driven innovation and the leveraging of system-wide resources, with lessons for project intervention strategies.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have high burdens of nutrition-related chronic diseases. This has been associated with lack of access to adequate and affordable nutritious foods and increasing reliance on imported foods. Our aim in this study was to investigate dietary patterns and food insecurity and assess their associations with socio-demographic characteristics and food sources. We recruited individuals aged 15 years and above from rural and urban areas in Fiji (n = 186) and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) (n = 147). Data collection included a 24 h diet recall, food source questionnaire and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale. We conducted latent class analysis to identify dietary patterns, and multivariable regression to investigate independent associations with dietary patterns. Three dietary patterns were identified: (1) low pulses, and milk and milk products, (2) intermediate pulses, and milk and milk products and (3) most diverse. In both SIDS, dietary pattern 3 was associated with older age, regularly sourcing food from supermarkets and borrowing, exchanging, bartering or gifting (BEB). Prevalence of food insecurity was not statistically different across dietary patterns. In both SIDS, food insecurity was higher in those regularly sourcing food from small shops, and in SVG, lower in those regularly using BEB. These results complement previous findings and provide a basis for further investigation into the determinants of dietary patterns, dietary diversity and food insecurity in these settings.

Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a risk factor for amputation and systemic atherosclerotic disease. Barbados has a high diabetes prevalence, and 89% of diabetes-related hospital admissions are for foot problems. Foot examination is infrequent in Barbados primary care. The prevalence and potential risk factors for PAD in people with diabetes in Barbados were studied. Methods: Multistage probability sampling was used to select a representative population sample of people ≥25 years of age with known diabetes or fasting blood glucose ≥7 mmol/L or HbA1c ≥6.5%. We administered the Edinburgh claudication questionnaire and assessed the ankle brachial pressure index (ABI) and Doppler waveform in both dorsalis pedis and posterior tibial arteries. Participants were classified into categories based on ABI as follows: PAD ≤0.90 in any leg; borderline 0.91 to 0.99 in one leg and the other not ≤0.90 or >0.4; normal 1.00 to 1.40 in both legs; and non-compressible >1.40 in one leg and the other not ≤0.9. Waveforms crossing the zero-flow baseline were categorised as normal. Multivariable logistic regression assessed the associations of potential risk factors with PAD. Results: of 236 participants (74% response rate, 33% male, median age 58.6 years), 51% had previously diagnosed diabetes. of nine people with symptoms of definite or atypical claudication, four had PAD and one had non-compressible arteries. ABI prevalence (95% CI) was PAD 18.6% (13.8, 24.6), borderline 21.9% (16.6, 28.4), normal 55.5% (49.4, 61.5) and non-compressible 3.9% (1.6, 9.3). Increasing age and female gender were independently associated with PAD. Over 80% of normal legs (ABI 1.00 to 1.40) had normal posterior tibial and dorsalis pedis waveforms, while only 23% legs with PAD (ABI ≤0.90) had normal waveforms in both arteries (Kappa = 0.43). Conclusion: Asymptomatic PAD is common in people with diabetes and requires ABI screening to detect it. Female gender is associated with PAD.

UNLABELLED: Small Island Developing States (SIDS) share high burdens of nutrition-related conditions, including non-communicable diseases, associated with an increasing reliance on imported, processed foods. Improving health through increasing the production and consumption of local, nutritious foods is a policy objective of many SIDS governments. This study aimed to understand contemporary challenges and opportunities to strengthening local food systems in two case study settings, Fiji and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Fifty-two in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders involved in local food production. Interviews were analysed by both country teams using thematic analysis. Local food production networks in both settings included formal governance bodies as well as more informal connections through civil society and communities. Their main function was the sharing of resources and knowledge, but levels of trust and cooperation between the stakeholders varied in a market open to intense competition from imports. Local food production was hindered by few and slow investments by local governments, dated technology, and lack of knowledge. Stakeholders believed this marginalisation was occurring against a background of rising preferences for imported foods in the population, and increasing disinterest in employment in the sector. Despite the challenges, strong narratives of resilience and opportunity were highlighted such as national pride in local produce for commercialisation and local diets. Efforts to support local food production in SIDS should focus on strengthening governance structures to prioritise local produce over corporate and import markets, assist collaboration and co-learning, and support alternative agro-food practices. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: the online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-022-01281-0.

Small island developing states (SIDS) have a high burden of nutrition-related disease associated with nutrient-poor, energy-dense diets. In response to these issues, we assessed the effectiveness of nutrition-based interventions on nutritional status (under-nutrition) and metabolic health (over-nutrition) among persons in SIDS. We included SIDS-based nutrition studies with change in nutrition status (e.g. markers of anaemia) or metabolic status (e.g. markers of glycaemia) as outcomes. The PRISMA framework was applied and MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, OARE library, Web of Science, Scopus, ASSIA, EconLit, AGORA, AGRICOLA, AGRIS, WHO-EMRO, and LILACS were searched (2000–2020). Cochrane risk of bias (ROB) and Cochrane ROBINS-I tools assessed ROB for randomised and non-randomised studies, respectively. PROSPERO registration (CRD42021236396) was undertaken. We included 50 eligible interventions, involving 37,591 participants: 14 trials reported on nutritional status, 36 on metabolic health. Effective interventions, evaluated at the individual level, took a multifaceted approach for metabolic outcomes; while nutrition outcomes utilised supplements. Most intervention types were suitable for issues related to ‘over’ nutrition versus ‘under’ nutrition. Twenty-six studies (nutrition status (six); metabolic health (twenty)) were effective (p < 0.05). With the current rise of nutrition-related public health challenges, there is a need for further development and evaluation of these and related interventions at the population level.

BACKGROUND: Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, one in two people in Africa were food insecure. The burden of malnutrition remains high (e.g. childhood stunting, anaemia in women of reproductive age) or are increasing (e.g. overweight and obesity). A range of coordinated actions are required to improve this situation, including increasing local food production and consumption. The aim of this review was to provide a systematic and comprehensive overview of recently published research into the health, social, economic, and environmental impacts of community food production initiatives (CFPIs) in Kenya, Cameroon and South Africa. METHODS: We searched eight electronic databases covering health, social, environmental, economic and agricultural sciences. Primary research studies published from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2018 were considered. Data on geographic location, study design, type of CFPI and the impacts assessed were abstracted from eligible articles. FINDINGS: We identified 4828 articles, 260 of which required full-text review and 118 met our eligibility criteria. Most research was conducted in Kenya (53.4%) and South Africa (38.1%). The categories of CFPIs studied were (in order of decreasing frequency): crop farming, livestock farming, unspecified farming, fisheries, home / school gardens, urban agriculture, and agroforestry. The largest number of studies were on the economic and environmental impacts of CFPIs, followed by their health and social impacts. The health impacts investigated included food security, nutrition status and dietary intake. One study investigated the potential impact of CFPIs on non-communicable diseases. Over 60% of studies investigated a single category of impact. Not one of the studies explicitly used a theoretical framework to guide its design or interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings on research studies of CFPIs suggest the need for a greater focus on interdisciplinary research in order to improve understanding of the relationships between their health, environmental, economic, and social impacts. Greater use of explicit theoretical frameworks could assist in research design and interpretation, helping to ensure its relevance to informing coordinated intersectoral interventions and policy initiatives.

INTRODUCTION: Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) cut-offs associated with hyperglycemia may differ by ethnicity. We investigated the optimal BMI and WC cut-offs for identifying hyperglycemia in the predominantly Afro-Caribbean population of Barbados. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: a cross-sectional study of 865 individuals aged ≥25 years without known diabetes or cardiovascular disease was conducted. Hyperglycemia was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥5.6 mmol/L or hemoglobin A1c ≥5.7% (39 mmol/mol). The Youden index was used to identify the optimal cut-offs from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Further ROC analysis and multivariable log binomial regression were used to compare standard and data-derived cut-offs. RESULTS: the prevalence of hyperglycemia was 58.9% (95% CI 54.7% to 63.0%). In women, optimal BMI and WC cut-offs (27 kg/m2 and 87 cm, respectively) performed similarly to standard cut-offs. In men, sensitivities of the optimal cut-offs of BMI ≥24 kg/m2 (72.0%) and WC ≥86 cm (74.0%) were higher than those for standard BMI and WC obesity cut-offs (30.0% and 25%-46%, respectively), although with lower specificity. Hyperglycemia was 70% higher in men above the data-derived WC cut-off (prevalence ratio 95% CI 1.2 to 2.3). CONCLUSIONS: While BMI and WC cut-offs in Afro-Caribbean women approximate international standards, our findings, consistent with other studies, suggest lowering cut-offs in men may be warranted to improve detection of hyperglycemia. Our findings do, however, require replication in a new data set.

OBJECTIVE: to identify and describe summarized evidence on factors associated with diet and physical activity in low- and middle-income countries in Africa and the Caribbean by performing a scoping review of reviews. METHODS: We searched the Medline®, LILACS, Scopus, Global Health and Web of Science databases for reviews of factors associated with diet or physical activity published between 1998 and 2019. At least 25% of studies in reviews had to come from African or Caribbean countries. Factors were categorized using Dahlgren and Whitehead's social model of health. There was no quality appraisal. FINDINGS: We identified 25 reviews: 13 on diet, four on physical activity and eight on both. Eighteen articles were quantitative systematic reviews. In 12 reviews, 25-50% of studies were from Africa or the Caribbean. Only three included evidence from the Caribbean. Together, the 25 reviews included primary evidence published between 1926 and 2018. Little of the summarized evidence concerned associations between international health or political factors and diet or associations between any factor and physical activity across all categories of the social model of health. CONCLUSION: the scoping review found a wide range of factors reported to be associated with diet and physical activity in Africa and the Caribbean, but summarized evidence that could help inform policies encouraging behaviours linked to healthy diets and physical activity in these regions were lacking. Further reviews are needed to inform policy where the evidence exists, and to establish whether additional primary research is needed.

Consuming sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been associated with increased rates of obesity and type 2 diabetes, making SSBs an increasingly popular target for taxation. In addition to changing prices, the introduction of an SSB tax may convey information about the health risks of SSBs (a signalling effect). If SSB taxation operates in part by producing a health risk signal, there may be important opportunities to amplify this effect. Our aim was to assess whether there is evidence of a risk signalling effect following the introduction of the Barbados SSB tax. We used process tracing to assess the existence of a signalling effect around sodas and sugar-sweetened juices (juice drinks). We used three data sources: 611 archived transcripts of local television news, 30 interviews with members of the public, and electronic point of sales data (46 months) from a major grocery store chain. We used directed content analysis to assess the qualitative data and an interrupted time series analysis to assess the quantitative data. We found evidence consistent with a risk signalling effect following the introduction of the SSB tax for sodas but not for juice drinks. Consistent with risk signalling theory, the findings suggest that consumers were aware of the tax, believed in a health rationale for the tax, understood that sodas were taxed and perceived that sodas and juice drinks were unhealthy. However consumers appear not to have understood that juice drinks were taxed, potentially reducing tax effectiveness from a health perspective. In addition, the tax may have incentivised companies to increase advertising around juice drinks (undermining any signalling effect) and to introduce low-cost SSB product lines. Policymakers can maximize the impact of risk signals by being clear about the definition of taxed SSBs, emphasizing the health rationale for introducing such a policy, and introducing co-interventions (e.g. marketing restrictions) that reduce opportunities for industry countersignals. These actions may amplify the impact of an SSB tax.

CONTEXT: COVID-19 mitigation measures including border lockdowns, social distancing, de-urbanization and restricted movements have been enforced to reduce the risks of COVID-19 arriving and spreading across PICs. To reduce the negative impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures, governments have put in place a number of interventions to sustain food and income security. Both mitigation measures and interventions have had a number of impacts on agricultural production, food systems and dietary diversity at the national and household levels. OBJECTIVE: Our paper conducted an exploratory analysis of immediate impacts of both COVID-19 mitigation measures and interventions on households and communities in PICs. Our aim is to better understand the implications of COVID-19 for PICs and identify knowledge gaps requiring further research and policy attention. METHODS: to understand the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures and interventions on food systems and diets in PICs, 13 communities were studied in Fiji and Solomon Islands in July-August 2020. In these communities, 46 focus group discussions were carried out and 425 households were interviewed. Insights were also derived from a series of online discussion sessions with local experts of Pacific Island food and agricultural systems in August and September 2020. To complement these discussions, an online search was conducted for available literature. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Identified impacts include: 1) Reduced agricultural production, food availability and incomes due to a decline in local markets and loss of access to international markets; 2) Increased social conflict such as land disputes, theft of high-value crops and livestock, and environmental degradation resulting from urban-rural migration; 3) Reduced availability of seedlings, planting materials, equipment and labour in urban areas; 4) Reinvigoration of traditional food systems and local food production; and 5) Re-emergence of cultural safety networks and values, such as barter systems. Households in rural and urban communities appear to have responded positively to COVID-19 by increasing food production from home gardens, particularly root crops, vegetables and fruits. However, the limited diversity of agricultural production and decreased household incomes are reducing the already low dietary diversity score that existed pre-COVID-19 for households. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings have a number of implications for future policy and practice. Future interventions would benefit from being more inclusive of diverse partners, focusing on strengthening cultural and communal values, and taking a systemic and long-term perspective. COVID-19 has provided an opportunity to strengthen traditional food systems and re-evaluate, re-imagine and re-localize agricultural production strategies and approaches in PICs.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Physical Activity recommends adopting a systems approach to implementing and tailoring actions according to local contexts. We held group model-building workshops with key stakeholders in the Caribbean region to develop a causal loop diagram to describe the system driving the increasing physical inactivity in the region and envision the most effective ways of intervening in that system to encourage and promote physical activity. We used the causal loop diagram to inform how the WHO Global Action Plan on Physical Activity might be adapted to a local context. Although the WHO recommendations aligned well with our causal loop diagram, the diagram also illustrates the importance of local context in determining how interventions should be coordinated and implemented. Some interventions included creating safe physical activity spaces for both sexes, tackling negative attitudes to physical activity in certain contexts, including in schools and workplaces, and improving infrastructure for active transport. The causal loop diagram may also help understand how policies may be undermined or supported by key actors or where policies should be coordinated. We demonstrate how, in a region with a high level of physical inactivity and low resources, applying systems thinking with relevant stakeholders can help the targeted adaptation of global recommendations to local contexts.

Our objective was to describe, for the first time in an English-speaking Caribbean country, the contribution of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) to nutrients linked to non-communicable disease. Using a cross-sectional study design, dietary data were collected from two non-consecutive 24-h dietary recalls. Recorded food items were then classified according to their degree of processing by the NOVA system. The present study took place in Barbados (2012-13). A representative population-based sample of 364 adult Barbadians (161 males and 203 females) aged 25-64 years participated in the study. UPFs represented 40.5 % (838 kcal/d; 95 % CI 791, 885) of mean energy intake. Sugar-sweetened beverages made the largest contribution to energy within the UPF category. Younger persons (25-44 years) consumed a significantly higher proportion of calories from UPF (NOVA group 4) compared with older persons (45-64 years). The mean energy shares of UPF ranged from 22.0 to 58.9 % for those in the lowest tertile to highest tertile. Within each tertile, the energy contribution was significantly higher in the younger age group (25-44 years) compared with the older (45-64 years). One-quarter of persons consume ≥50 % of their daily calories from UPF, this being significantly higher in younger persons. The ultra-processed diet fraction contained about six times the mean of free sugars and about 0.8 times the dietary fibre of the non-ultra-processed fraction (NOVA groups 1-3). Targeted interventions to decrease the consumption of UPF especially in younger persons is thus of high priority to improve the diet quality of Barbadians.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have high and increasing rates of diet-related diseases. This situation is associated with a loss of food sovereignty and an increasing reliance on nutritionally poor food imports. A policy goal, therefore, is to improve local diets through improved local production of nutritious foods. Our aim in this study was to develop methods and collect preliminary data on the relationships between where people source their food, their socio-demographic characteristics and dietary quality in Fiji and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) in order to inform further work towards this policy goal. We developed a toolkit of methods to collect individual-level data, including measures of dietary intake, food sources, socio-demographic and health indicators. Individuals aged ≥15 years were eligible to participate. From purposively sampled urban and rural areas, we recruited 186 individuals from 95 households in Fiji, and 147 individuals from 86 households in SVG. Descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression were used to investigate associations. The mean dietary diversity score, out of 10, was 3.7 (SD1.4) in Fiji and 3.8 (SD1.5) in SVG. In both settings, purchasing was the most common way of sourcing food. However, 68% (Fiji) and 45% (SVG) of participants regularly (>weekly) consumed their own produce, and 5% (Fiji) and 33% (SVG) regularly consumed borrowed/exchanged/bartered food. In regression models, independent positive associations with dietary diversity (DD) were: borrowing/exchanging/bartering food (β = 0.73 (0.21, 1.25)); age (0.01 (0.00, 0.03)); and greater than primary education (0.44 (0.06, 0.82)). DD was negatively associated with small shop purchasing (-0.52 (95% CIs -0.91, -0.12)) and rural residence (-0.46 (-0.92, 0.00)). The findings highlight associations between dietary diversity and food sources and indicate avenues for further research to inform policy actions aimed at improving local food production and diet.

At the time of writing, it is unclear how the COVID-19 pandemic will play out in rapidly urbanising regions of the world. In these regions, the realities of large overcrowded informal settlements, a high burden of infectious and non-communicable diseases, as well as malnutrition and precarity of livelihoods, have raised added concerns about the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in these contexts. COVID-19 infection control measures have been shown to have some effects in slowing down the progress of the pandemic, effectively buying time to prepare the healthcare system. However, there has been less of a focus on the indirect impacts of these measures on health behaviours and the consequent health risks, particularly in the most vulnerable. In this current debate piece, focusing on two of the four risk factors that contribute to >80% of the NCD burden, we consider the possible ways that the restrictions put in place to control the pandemic, have the potential to impact on dietary and physical activity behaviours and their determinants. By considering mitigation responses implemented by governments in several LMIC cities, we identify key lessons that highlight the potential of economic, political, food and built environment sectors, mobilised during the pandemic, to retain health as a priority beyond the context of pandemic response. Such whole-of society approaches are feasible and necessary to support equitable healthy eating and active living required to address other epidemics and to lower the baseline need for healthcare in the long term.

Aim: in a high proportion of people with recently diagnosed Type 2 diabetes, a short (2–3-month) low-calorie diet is able to restore normal glucose and insulin metabolism. The aim of this study was to determine the feasibility of this approach in Barbados. Methods: Twenty-five individuals with Type 2 diabetes diagnosed within past 6 years, not on insulin, BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 were recruited. Hypoglycaemic medication was stopped on commencement of the 8-week liquid (760 calorie) diet. Insulin response was assessed in meal tests at baseline, 8 weeks and 8 months. Semi-structured interviews, analysed thematically, explored participants’ experiences. ‘Responders’ were those with fasting plasma glucose (FPG)

AIMS: to estimate the number of deaths attributable to diabetes in 20-79-year-old adults in 2019. METHODS: the following were used to estimate the number of deaths attributable to diabetes: all-cause mortality estimates from the World Health Organization life table, country level age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence in 2019 and relative risks of death in people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. RESULTS: an estimated 4.2 million deaths among 20-79-year-old adults are attributable to diabetes. Diabetes is estimated to contribute to 11.3% of deaths globally, ranging from 6.8% (lowest) in the Africa Region to 16.2% (highest) in the Middle East and North Africa. About half (46.2%) of the deaths attributable to diabetes occur in people under the age of 60 years. The Africa Region has the highest (73.1%) proportion of deaths attributable to diabetes in people under the age of 60 years, while the Europe Region has the lowest (31.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is estimated to contribute to one in nine deaths among adults aged 20-79 years. Prevention of diabetes and its complications is essential, particularly in middle-income countries, where the current impact is estimated to be the largest. Contemporary data from diverse populations are needed to validate these estimates.

The Caribbean island of Barbados has a high burden of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Dietary habits were last described in 2005. A representative population-based sample (n = 363, aged 25–64 years) provided two nonconsecutive 24-hr dietary recalls in this cross-sectional study. Mean daily nutrient intakes were compared with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Subgroup differences by age, sex, and educational level were examined using logistic regression. High sugar intakes exist for both sexes with 24% (95% CIs 18.9, 30.0) consuming less than the recommended

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. While upstream approaches to tackle NCD risk factors of poor quality diets and physical inactivity have been trialled in high income countries (HICs), there is little evidence from low and middle-income countries (LMICs) that bear a disproportionate NCD burden. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean are therefore the focus regions for a novel global health partnership to address upstream determinants of NCDs. PARTNERSHIP: the Global Diet and Activity research Network (GDAR Network) was formed in July 2017 with funding from the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Units and Groups Programme. We describe the GDAR Network as a case example and a potential model for research generation and capacity strengthening for others committed to addressing the upstream determinants of NCDs in LMICs. We highlight the dual equity targets of research generation and capacity strengthening in the description of the four work packages. The work packages focus on learning from the past through identifying evidence and policy gaps and priorities, understanding the present through adolescent lived experiences of healthy eating and physical activity, and co-designing future interventions with non-academic stakeholders. CONCLUSION: We present five lessons learned to date from the GDAR Network activities that can benefit other global health research partnerships. We close with a summary of the GDAR Network contribution to cultivating sustainable capacity strengthening and cutting-edge policy-relevant research as a beacon to exemplify the need for such collaborative groups.

Many Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean experience a triple burden of malnutrition with high rates of obesity, undernutrition in children, and iron deficiency anemia in women of reproductive age, driven by an inadequate, unhealthy diet. This study aimed to map the complex dynamic systems driving unhealthy eating and to identify potential points for intervention in three dissimilar countries. Stakeholders from across the food system in Jamaica (n = 16), St. Kitts and Nevis (n = 19), and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (n = 6) engaged with researchers in two group model building (GMB) workshops in 2018. Participants described and mapped the system driving unhealthy eating, identified points of intervention, and created a prioritized list of intervention strategies. Stakeholders were also interviewed before and after the workshops to provide their perspectives on the utility of this approach. Stakeholders described similar underlying systems driving unhealthy eating across the three countries, with a series of dominant feedback loops identified at multiple levels. Participants emphasized the importance of the relative availability and price of unhealthy foods, shifting cultural norms on eating, and aggressive advertising from the food industry as dominant drivers. They saw opportunities for governments to better regulate advertising, disincentivize unhealthy food options, and bolster the local agricultural sector to promote food sovereignty. They also identified the need for better coordinated policy making across multiple sectors at national and regional levels to deliver more integrated approaches to improving nutrition. GMB proved to be an effective tool for engaging a highly diverse group of stakeholders in better collective understanding of a complex problem and potential interventions.

OBJECTIVE: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been implemented widely. We aimed to use a pre-existing nutritional survey data to inform SSB tax design by assessing: (1) baseline consumption of SSBs and SSB-derived free sugars, (2) the percentage of SSB-derived free sugars that would be covered by a tax and (3) the extent to which a tax would differentiate between high-sugar SSBs and low-sugar SSBs. We evaluated these three considerations using pre-existing nutritional survey data in a developing economy setting. METHODS: We used data from a nationally representative cross-sectional survey in Barbados (2012-2013, prior to SSB tax implementation). Data were available on 334 adults (25-64 years) who completed two non-consecutive 24-hour dietary recalls. We estimated the prevalence of SSB consumption and its contribution to total energy intake, overall and stratified by taxable status. We assessed the percentage of SSB-derived free sugars subject to the tax and identified the consumption-weighted sugar concentration of SSBs, stratified by taxable status. FINDINGS: Accounting for sampling probability, 88.8% of adults (95% CI 85.1 to 92.5) reported SSB consumption, with a geometric mean of 2.4 servings/day (±2 SD, 0.6, 9.2) among SSB consumers. Sixty percent (95% CI 54.6 to 65.4) of SSB-derived free sugars would be subject to the tax. The tax did not clearly differentiate between high-sugar beverages and low-sugar beverages. CONCLUSION: Given high SSB consumption, targeting SSBs was a sensible strategy in this setting. A substantial percentage of free sugars from SSBs were not covered by the tax, reducing possible health benefits. The considerations proposed here may help policymakers to design more effective SSB taxes.

Background Although most countries face increasing population levels of obesity and diabetes their effect on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has not been often studied in small island developing states (SIDs) where obesity rates are among the highest in the world. We estimated the relative contributions of treatments and cardiovascular risk factors to the decline in CHD mortality from 1990 to 2012 in the Caribbean island, Barbados. Methods We used the IMPACT CHD mortality model to estimate the effect of increased coverage of effective medical/surgical treatments and changes in major CHD risk factors on mortality trends in 2012 compared with 1990. We calculated deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) for each model risk factor and treatment group. We obtained data from WHO Mortality database, population denominators from the Barbados Statistical Service stratified by 10-year age group (ages 25–34 up to 85 plus), population-based risk factor surveys, Global Burden of Disease and Barbados’ national myocardial infarction registry. Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results in 1990 the age-standardized CHD mortality rate was 109.5 per 100,000 falling to 55.3 in 2012. Implementation of effective treatment accounted for 56% DPPs (95% (Uncertainty Interval (UI) 46%, 68%), mostly due to the introduction of treatments immediately after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (14%) and unstable angina (14%). Overall, risk factors contributed 19% DPPs (95% UI 6% to 34%) mostly attributed to decline in cholesterol (18% DPPs, 95% UI 12%, 26%). Adverse trends in diabetes: 14% additional deaths(ADs) 95% UI 8% to 21% ADs) and BMI (2% ADs 95%UI 0 to 5% ADs) limited potential for risk factor gains. Conclusions Given the significant negative impact of obesity/diabetes on mortality in this analysis, research that explores factors affecting implementation of evidenced-based preventive strategies is needed. The fact that most of the decline in CHD mortality in Barbados was due to treatment provides an example for SIDs about the advantages of universal access to care and treatment.

Objectives in Barbados, high case fatality rates have been reported after myocardial infarction (MI) with higher rates in women than men. To explore this inequality, we examined documented pharmacological interventions for ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-STEMI (NSTEMI) and unstable and chronic angina in women and men. Design Prospective cohort registry data for STEMI and NSTEMI and retrospective chart review for unstable and chronic angina. Setting Tertiary care (acute coronary syndromes) and primary care (chronic angina) centres in Barbados. Participants for the years 2009-2016, a total of 1018 patients with STEMI or NSTEMI were identified via the prospective study. For unstable and chronic angina, 136 and 272 notes were reviewed respectively for the years 2010-2014. Outcome measures the proportions of patients prescribed recommended medication during the first 24 hours after an acute event, at discharge and for chronic care were calculated. Prescribed proportions were analysed by gender after adjustment for age. Results Between 2009 and 2016, for the acute management of patients with NSTEMI and STEMI, only two (aspirin and clopidogrel) of six drugs had documented prescription rates of 80% or more. Patients with STEMI (n=552) had higher prescription rates than NSTEMI (n=466), with gender differences being more pronounced in the former. Among patients with STEMI, after adjustment for age, diabetes, hypertension and smoking, men were more likely to receive fibrinolytics acutely, OR 2.28 (95% CI 1.24 to 4.21). Compared with men, a higher proportion of women were discharged on all recommended treatments; this was only statistically significant for beta-blockers: age-adjusted OR 1.87 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.00). There were no statistically significant differences in documented prescription of drugs for chronic angina. Conclusion Following acute MI in Barbados, the proportion of patients with documented recommended treatment is relatively low. Although women were less likely to receive appropriate acute care than men, by discharge gender differences were reversed.

Background: the World Health Organization has advocated for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as part of a broader non-communicable disease prevention strategy, and these taxes have been recently introduced in a wide range of settings. However, much is still unknown about how SSB taxes operate in various contexts and as a result of different tax designs. In 2015, the Government of Barbados implemented a 10% ad valorem (value-based) tax on SSBs. It has been hypothesized that this tax structure may inadvertently encourage consumers to switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We aimed to assess whether and to what extent there has been a change in sales of SSBs following implementation of the SSB tax. Methods: We used electronic point of sale data from a major grocery store chain and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) design to assess grocery store SSB and non-SSB sales from January 2013 to October 2016. We controlled for the underlying time trend, seasonality, inflation, tourism and holidays. We conducted sensitivity analyses using a cross-country control (Trinidad and Tobago) and a within-country control (vinegar). We included a post-hoc stratification by price tertile to assess the extent to which consumers may switch to cheaper sugary drinks. Results: We found that average weekly sales of SSBs decreased by 4.3% (95%CI 3.6 to 4.9%) compared to expected sales without a tax, primarily driven by a decrease in carbonated SSBs sales of 3.6% (95%CI 2.9 to 4.4%). Sales of non-SSBs increased by 5.2% (95%CI 4.5 to 5.9%), with bottled water sales increasing by an average of 7.5% (95%CI 6.5 to 8.3%). The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the uncontrolled results. After stratifying by price, we found evidence of substitution to cheaper SSBs. Conclusions: This study suggests that the Barbados SSB tax was associated with decreased sales of SSBs in a major grocery store chain after controlling for underlying trends. This finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. We found evidence to suggest that consumers may have changed their behaviour in response to the tax by purchasing cheaper sugary drinks, in addition to substituting to untaxed products. This has important implications for the design of future SSB taxes.

AIMS: to provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045. METHODS: a total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20-79 years. RESULTS: the global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than low-income countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to be 7.5% (374 million) in 2019 and projected to reach 8.0% (454 million) by 2030 and 8.6% (548 million) by 2045. CONCLUSIONS: Just under half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide and the number is projected to increase by 25% in 2030 and 51% in 2045.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a major cause of deaths globally, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of these deaths. 42% of NCD deaths are premature (occurring before the age of 70 years). As part of the United Nations 3rd Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on health and wellbeing, target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from NCDs by one third between 2015 and 2030. This target adds to the World Health Organization (WHO) target of reducing premature deaths from NCDs by 25% between 2010 and 2025. As diabetes is a major risk factor for CVD, it is important to account for the trends in diabetes when considering premature CVD mortality. We aimed to describe the global trends in diabetes prevalence and mortality, critically review the literature on the estimated attainability of the WHO and SDG targets, and determine if and how these studies accounted for trends in diabetes. Worldwide, the prevalence of diabetes is rising, with an estimated 9.0% global prevalence in adults aged 20-69 by 2030, and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) having the largest increase of the burden in absolute numbers and age-standardized prevalence. There is a lack of data from most LMICs on the excess CVD mortality associated with diabetes and therefore no consensus on the global risk of CVD mortality in people with diabetes. Where data do exist, there are discrepancies between studies on the direction of mortality trends from diabetes over time. We reviewed 12 studies that estimated the attainability of the WHO or SDG targets for premature NCD mortality. Seven of these considered the potential impacts of achieving the 2025 WHO risk factor targets. Six studies modelled the impact of current trends in risk factors, including diabetes, continuing toward the target dates. Four studies compared this 'business as usual' model with the attainment of the risk factor targets for the world as whole and individual regions, 2 studies for NCD mortality overall, and 2 specifically for CVD mortality. On the impact of diabetes with regards to attainment of the WHO or SDG targets for premature CVD mortality, the overall results were inconclusive. Some concluded that none of the countries or regions considered would meet the targets, and others predicted that in some areas, the targets would be met. Examining the potential impact of trends in diabetes on future CVD mortality rates in LMICs is limited by a relative lack of high quality studies, including on the age specific excess mortality associated with diabetes. Filling these data gaps will enable better estimates of the potential impacts on future CVD mortality of the rapidly increasing prevalence of diabetes in LMICs and help to better inform health policy and the attainment of SDG target 3.4.

Aims: to determine the prevalence and potential risk factors for diabetic peripheral neuropathy with a loss of protective sensation in Barbados. Methods: a representative population sample aged > 25 years with previously diagnosed diabetes or a fasting blood glucose ≥ 7 mmol/l or HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) was tested by 10 g monofilament at four plantar sites per foot and a 28 Hz tuning fork and neurothesiometer at the hallux. Data were adjusted to the age structure of people with diabetes in Barbados. Multivariable logistic regression assessed associations with peripheral neuropathy with a loss of protective sensation. Results: of 236 participants [74% response rate, 33% men, 91% black, median age 58.6 years, mean BMI 30.1 kg/m2, mean HbA1c 54 mmol/mol (7.1%)], 51% had previously diagnosed diabetes. Foot examination demonstrated that 25.8% (95% CI 20.2 to 31.5) had at least one insensate site with monofilament testing, 14.8% (95% CI 10.2 to 19.4) had an abnormal tuning fork test and 10.9% (95% CI 6.9 to 14.9) had a vibration perception threshold > 25 V. Peripheral neuropathy with a loss of protective sensation prevalence was 28.5% (95% CI 22.7 to 34.4) as indicated by monofilament with ≥ 1 insensate site and/or vibration perception threshold > 25 V. With previously diagnosed diabetes the prevalence was 36.4% (95% CI 27.7 to 45.2) with 98.4% of cases identified by monofilament testing. Increasing age, previously diagnosed diabetes, male sex and abdominal obesity were independently associated with peripheral neuropathy with a loss of protective sensation. Conclusions: over a third of people with previously diagnosed diabetes had evidence of peripheral neuropathy with a loss of protective sensation. Monofilament testing alone may be adequate to rule out peripheral neuropathy with a loss of protective sensation. Monofilament and neurothesiometer stimuli are reproducible but dependent on participant response.

Background Many studies have found an increased risk of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among those with diabetes mellitus (DM). However, evidence on whether the association is bidirectional remains sparse. This study investigates DM rates among those with and without prior tuberculosis (TB) disease as well as the reverse. Methods Data on a UK general practice population, between 2003 and 2009, were obtained from the Health Improvement Network database. A series of retrospective cohort studies were completed. Individuals were successively classified as 'exposed' or 'unexposed' to TB, PTB, extrapulmonary TB (EPTB) or DM. Multivariate negative binomial regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR) among each exposure group for outcomes of interest (TB, PTB, EPTB or DM in turn) adjusting for plausible confounding variables (age, sex, region, Townsend quintile and smoking status). Potential confounding due to ethnicity was adjusted for using McNamee's external method. Results DM risk was substantially raised among individuals with a history of TB disease (IRR 5.65 (95% CI 5.19 to 6.16)), PTB (IRR 5.74 (95% CI 5.08 to 6.50)) and EPTB (IRR 4.66 (95% CI 3.94 to 5.51)) compared with those without; results were attenuated after external adjustment for ethnicity (IRR 2.33 (95% CI 2.14 to 2.53)). TB risk was raised modestly among individuals with DM (IRR 1.50 (95% CI 1.27 to 1.76)) and was attenuated slightly after adjustment for ethnicity (IRR 1.26 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.48)). Conclusion DM risk was raised among those with previous TB disease; this finding has implications for follow-up and screening of patients with TB, who may be at high risk of developing DM or related complications.

OBJECTIVES: to conduct an analysis of the most recent data on diabetes and its risk factors by gender and other social determinants of health to understand why its prevalence is higher among women than men in the Caribbean; to inform policy agenda-setting for diabetes prevention and control in the Caribbean; and to identify gaps in the evidence that require further research. METHODS: a previous systematic review of the literature describing studies conducted in the Caribbean that presented the distribution of diabetes, its outcomes, and risk factors, by one or more social determinants, was updated to include sources from 1 January 2007 - 31 December 2016. Surveys by the World Health Organization (WHO) were also included. Where data were sufficient, meta-analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: a total of 8 326 manuscripts were identified. of those, 282 were selected for full text review, and 114, for abstraction. In all, 36 papers, including WHO-related surveys, had sufficient information for meta-analysis. More women compared to men were obese (OR: 2.1; 95%CI = 1.65 - 2.69), physically inactive (OR: 2.18; 95%CI = 1.75 - 2.72), and had diabetes (OR: 1.48; 95%CI = 1.25 - 1.76). More men smoked (OR: 4.27; 95%CI = 3.18 - 5.74) and had inadequate fruit and vegetable intake (OR: 1.37; 95%CI = 1.21 - 1.57). CONCLUSION: Thirty-six papers were added to the previously conducted systematic review; of those, 13 were added to the meta-analysis. Diabetes and its risk factors (primarily obesity and physical inactivity) continue to disproportionately affect women in the Caribbean. Smoking interventions should be targeted at men in this geographic area.

This report examines the experiences of Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean- Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, and in the Pacific- Fiji, Nauru, and Tonga with specific governmental regulatory measures to reduce the risk of obesity and associated diet-related chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), as well as the obstacles and opportunities encountered. Guided by the diet-related indicators of the World Health Organization (WHO) Noncommunicable Diseases Progress Monitor 2017, the authors reviewed legislation, country reports, articles, and the databases of WHO and the World Trade Organization to identify relevant regulatory measures and to establish the extent of implementation in the selected countries. Obesity prevalence ranged from 25.9% in Dominica to 41.1% in Tonga. The principal diet-related measures implemented by the selected countries were fiscal measures, such as sugar-sweetened beverage taxes and import duties to encourage greater consumption of healthy foods. Governmental action was weakest in the area of restrictions on marketing of unhealthy foods. If they are to reduce their current high rates of obesity and associated NCDs, Caribbean and Pacific states need to intensify implementation of diet-related regulatory measures, particularly in the area of marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages to children. Key implementation challenges include financial and staffing constraints and the need for increased political will to counter industry opposition and to allocate adequate financial resources to keep advancing this agenda.

Background: Prostate cancer remains the leading cause of cancer deaths among Caribbean men. However, little data exists on the influence of social factors on prostate cancer in the Caribbean setting. This article supports the 2011 Rio Political Declaration on addressing health inequalities by presenting a systematic review of evidence on the role of social determinants on prostate cancer in Caribbean men. It aims to determine the distribution, by known social determinants of health, of the frequency and adverse outcomes of prostate cancer among Caribbean populations. Methods: Observational studies reporting an association between a social determinant and prostate cancer frequency and outcomes were sought in MEDLINE, EMBASE, SciELO, CINAHL, CUMED, LILACS, and IBECS databases. Fourteen social determinants and 7 prostate cancer endpoints were chosen, providing 98 possible relationship groups exploring the role of social determinants on prostate cancer. Observational studies with > 50 participants conducted in Caribbean territories between 2004 and 2016 were eligible. The review was conducted according to STROBE and PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed. Results: from 843 potentially relevant citations, 13 articles from 9 studies were included. From these included studies, 24 relationships were reported looking at 11 distinct relationship groups, leaving 90 relationship groups (92% of all relationship groups) unexplored. Study heterogeneity and risk of bias restricted results to a narrative synthesis in most instances. Meta-analyses showed more diagnosed prostate cancer among men with less formal education (n = 2 studies, OR 1.60, 95%CI 1.18-2.19) and among men who were married (n = 3 studies, OR 1.54, 95%CI 1.22-1.95). Conclusions: This review highlights limited evidence for a higher occurrence of diagnosed prostate cancer among Caribbean men with lower levels of education and among men who are married. The role of social determinants on prostate cancer among Caribbean men remains poorly understood. Improvements in study quantity and quality, and reduced variability in outcomes and reporting are needed. This report represents the current evidence, and provides a roadmap to future research priorities for a better understanding of Caribbean prostate cancer inequalities.

Background: High sodium diets with inadequate potassium and high sodium-to-potassium ratios are a known determinant of hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The Caribbean island of Barbados has a high prevalence of hypertension and mortality from CVD. Our objectives were to estimate sodium and potassium excretion, to compare estimated levels with recommended intakes and to identify the main food sources of sodium in Barbadian adults. Methods: a sub-sample (n = 364; 25-64 years) was randomly selected from the representative population-based Health of the Nation cross-sectional study (n = 1234), in 2012-13. A single 24-h urine sample was collected from each participant, following a strictly applied protocol designed to reject incomplete samples, for the measurement of sodium and potassium excretion (in mg), which were used as proxy estimates of dietary intake. In addition, sensitivity analyses based on estimated completeness of urine collection from urine creatinine values were undertaken. Multiple linear regression was used to examine differences in sodium and potassium excretion, and the sodium-to-potassium ratio, by age, sex and educational level. Two 24-h recalls were used to identify the main dietary sources of sodium. All analyses were weighted for the survey design. Results: Mean sodium excretion was 2656 (2488-2824) mg/day, with 67% (62-73%) exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended limit of 2000 mg/d. Mean potassium excretion was 1469 (1395-1542) mg/d; < 0.5% met recommended minimum intake levels. Mean sodium-to-potassium ratio was 2.0 (1.9-2.1); not one participant had a ratio that met WHO recommendations. Higher potassium intake and lower sodium-to-potassium ratio were independently associated with age and tertiary education. Sensitivity analyses based on urine creatinine values did not notably alter these findings. Conclusions: in this first nationally representative study with objective assessment of sodium and potassium excretion in a Caribbean population in over 20 years, levels of sodium intake were high, and potassium intake was low. Younger age and lower educational level were associated with the highest sodium-to-potassium ratios. These findings provide baseline values for planning future policy interventions for non-communicable disease prevention.

OBJECTIVES: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a threat to social and economic development, including in the Caribbean. In 2007 the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) held the world's first-ever summit of heads of government on NCD prevention and control and issued the landmark Declaration of Port-of-Spain: Uniting to Stop the Epidemic of Chronic NCDs. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of a formal evaluation of the Declaration and to highlight key findings that could inform further implementation of the Declaration's 15 mandates. METHODS: the evaluation's six research objectives were decided through stakeholder engagement and assessed by concurrent quantitative and qualitative research methods, using the following four themes: 1) trends in risk factors, morbidity, and mortality; 2) national and Caribbean-wide policy responses, and factors associated with policy successes and difficulties; 3) the international impact of the Declaration; and 4) the potential for raising revenue from tobacco and alcohol taxation in order to support NCD prevention and control. RESULTS: There are marked disparities in NCD mortality and trends among the 20 CARICOM member countries and territories. No CARICOM member had fully implemented all of the Declaration's 15 mandates (which were monitored by 26 indicators), with 10 CARICOM members implementing fewer than half of the indicators, and with most members lacking a well-functioning multisectoral NCD Commission. Larger CARICOM members tended to have higher levels of implementation than did smaller members. Mandates that received active support from regional institutions tended to be better implemented by the CARICOM members than did mandates that lacked that kind of support. Feasible national tobacco and alcohol tax increases could more than cover the cost of implementing the World Health Organization NCD "best buy" interventions in the CARICOM member countries and territories. CONCLUSIONS: Priorities for further implementation of the mandates from the Port-of-Spain Declaration include establishing throughout the CARICOM member countries and territories fully functioning national bodies to support multisectoral action for NCD prevention; greater regional support in policy development and implementation for smaller countries; and greater targeted use of taxes on tobacco and alcohol to support NCD control and prevention.

OBJECTIVES: in 2007, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) convened the world's first-ever heads of government summit on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and issued the landmark Declaration of Port-of-Spain: Uniting to Stop the Epidemic of Chronic NCDs. Since then, ministry of health (MoH) focal points in each country have self-reported annually on their NCD efforts, using a 26-indicator grid created to assess implementation of the Declaration. Our objective was to assess the validity of those grid responses, as compared to information from in-depth interviews and document reviews. METHODS: Seven national case studies on policy responses to the Declaration were undertaken in 2015. In-depth, semistructured interviews were conducted with stakeholders from multiple sectors, including the MoH. Policy documents were also identified and reviewed. The results from the 2015 case studies were compared to the 2014 MoH focal point grid responses. Kappa statistics evaluated chance agreement. RESULTS: the information from the grid and from the case studies agreed closely. Out of a total of 182 indicators (26 each for seven countries), there was a lack of agreement on just 9 (4.9%). All the differences were between policy statements and implementation. Except for physical activity, kappa statistics indicated that agreement was good to excellent for all the clusters of the grid and for the grid as a whole, but with wide confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: in general, the monitoring grid accurately assessed the national situation, but with a possible tendency to overstate performance in some areas. These findings contributed to the design of a new, 50-indicator monitoring grid in 2016. Alongside these improvements, CARICOM countries face a substantial burden from having to complete many other required NCD reports, mainly for the Pan American Health Organization and the World Health Organization.

AIMS: with regards to insulin initiation in Barbados we explored primary care doctor (PCD) perception, healthcare system factors and predictors of PCD reluctance to initiate insulin. METHODS: PCDs completed a questionnaire based on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and a reluctance to initiate insulin scale. Using linear regression, we explored the association between TPB domains and the reluctance to initiate insulin scale. RESULTS: of 161 PCDs, 70% responded (75 private and 37 public sector). The majority felt initiating insulin was uncomplicated (68%) and there was benefit if used before complications developed (68%), but would not use it until absolutely necessary (58%). More private than public sector PCDs (p

BACKGROUND: Waist circumference (WC) thresholds derived from western populations continue to be used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) despite increasing evidence of ethnic variation in the association between adiposity and cardiometabolic disease and availability of data from African populations. We aimed to derive a SSA-specific optimal WC cut-point for identifying individuals at increased cardiometabolic risk. METHODS: We used individual level cross-sectional data on 24 181 participants aged ⩾15 years from 17 studies conducted between 1990 and 2014 in eight countries in SSA. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to derive optimal WC cut-points for detecting the presence of at least two components of metabolic syndrome (MS), excluding WC. RESULTS: the optimal WC cut-point was 81.2 cm (95% CI 78.5-83.8 cm) and 81.0 cm (95% CI 79.2-82.8 cm) for men and women, respectively, with comparable accuracy in men and women. Sensitivity was higher in women (64%, 95% CI 63-65) than in men (53%, 95% CI 51-55), and increased with the prevalence of obesity. Having WC above the derived cut-point was associated with a twofold probability of having at least two components of MS (age-adjusted odds ratio 2.6, 95% CI 2.4-2.9, for men and 2.2, 95% CI 2.0-2.3, for women). CONCLUSION: the optimal WC cut-point for identifying men at increased cardiometabolic risk is lower (⩾81.2 cm) than current guidelines (⩾94.0 cm) recommend, and similar to that in women in SSA. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these cut-points based on cardiometabolic outcomes.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 31 October 2017; doi:10.1038/ijo.2017.240.

Background Immigrants are sometimes found to have better health than locally born populations. We examined the mortality experience of South Asian origin and white European origin individuals living in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. Methods a linked 17-21 year mortality follow-up of a cross-sectional study of European (n=825) and South Asian (n=709) men and women, aged 25-74 years, recruited between 1993 and 1997. Poisson regression was used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for allcause mortality. Sensitivity analysis explored the possible effect of differences between ethnic groups in loss to follow-up. The impact of adjustment for established risk factors on MRRs was studied. Results South Asians had lower all-cause age-adjusted and sex-adjusted mortality than Europeans (MRR 0.70; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.85). There was higher loss to follow-up in South Asians. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that this did not account for the observed lower mortality. Adjustment for cardiometabolic, behavioural and socioeconomic characteristics attenuated but did not eliminate the mortality differences between South Asians and Europeans, although CIs now cross 1 (MRR 0.79; 95% CI 0.55 to 1.13). Conclusions South Asians had lower all-cause mortality compared with European origin individuals living in Newcastle upon Tyne that were not accounted for by incomplete mortality data. It is possible that such migrants to the UK have the resources and motivation to move in search of better opportunities and may be healthier and wealthier than those who remain in their country of origin. These findings challenge us to better understand and measure the factors contributing to their survival advantage.

Background Both fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c are recommended for the diagnosis of diabetes and prediabetes by the American Diabetes Association (ADA), and for diabetes by the World Health Organization. The ADA guidance is influential on clinical practice in many developing countries, including in the Caribbean and Latin America. We aimed to compare the prevalence and characteristics of individuals identified as having diabetes and prediabetes by FPG and HbA1c in a predominantly African ancestry Caribbean population. Methods a representative population-based sample of 1234 adults (≥25 years of age) resident in Barbados was recruited. Standard methods with appropriate quality control were used to collect data on height, weight, blood pressure, fasting lipids and history of diagnosed diabetes, and to measure fasting glucose and HbA1c. Those with previously diagnosed diabetes (n = 192) were excluded from the analyses. Diabetes was defined as: FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L or HbA1c ≥6.5%; prediabetes as: FPG ≥5.6 to < 7mmol/L or HbA1c ≥5.7 to < 6.5%. Results Complete data were available on 939 participants without previously diagnosed diabetes. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was higher, but not significantly so, by HbA1c (4.9%, 95% CI 3.5, 6.8) vs FPG (3.5%, 2.4, 5.1). Overall 79 individuals had diabetes by either measure, but only 21 on both. The prevalence of prediabetes was higher by HbA1c compared to FPG: 41.7% (37.9, 45.6) vs 15.0% (12.8, 17.5). Overall 558 individuals had prediabetes by either measure, but only 107 on both. HbA1c, but not FPG, was significantly higher in women than men; and FPG, but not HbA1c, was significantly associated with raised triglycerides and low HDL cholesterol. Conclusion the agreement between FPG and HbA1c defined hyperglycaemia is poor. In addition, there are some differences in the phenotype of those identified, and HbA1c gives a much higher prevalence of prediabetes. The routine use of HbA1c for screening and diagnosis in this population would have major implications for clinical and public health policies and resources. Given the lack of robust evidence, particularly for prediabetes, on whether intervention in the individuals identified would improve outcomes, this approach to screening and diagnosis cannot be currently recommended for this population.

Background: Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths among women in the Caribbean and accounts for >1 million disability adjusted life years. Little is known about the social inequalities of this disease in the Caribbean. In support of the Rio Political Declaration on addressing health inequities, this article presents a systematic review of evidence on the distribution, by social determinants, of breast cancer risk factors, frequency, and adverse outcomes in Caribbean women. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, SciELO, CINAHL, CUMED, LILACS, and IBECS were searched for observational studies reporting associations between social determinants and breast cancer risk factors, frequency, or outcomes. Based on the PROGRESS-plus checklist, we considered 8 social determinant groups for 14 breast cancer endpoints, which totalled to 189 possible ways (‘relationship groups’) to explore the role of social determinants on breast cancer. Studies with >50 participants conducted in Caribbean territories between 2004 and 2014 were eligible for inclusion. The review was conducted according to STROBE and PRISMA guidelines and results were planned as a narrative synthesis, with meta-analysis if possible. Results: Thirty-four articles were included from 5,190 screened citations. From these included studies, 75 inequality relationships were reported examining 30 distinct relationship groups, leaving 84% of relationship groups unexplored. Most inequality relationships were reported for risk factors, particularly alcohol and overweight/obesity which generally showed a positive relationship with indicators of lower socioeconomic position. Evidence for breast cancer frequency and outcomes was scarce. Unmarried women tended to have a higher likelihood of being diagnosed with breast cancer when compared to married women. While no association was observed between breast cancer frequency and ethnicity, mortality from breast cancer was shown to be slightly higher among Asian-Indian compared to African-descent populations in Trinidad (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.4) and Guyana (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6). Conclusion: Study quantity, quality, and variability in outcomes and reporting limited the synthesis of evidence on the role of social determinants on breast cancer in the Caribbean. This report represents important current evidence on the region, and can guide future research priorities for better describing and understanding of Caribbean breast cancer inequalities.

Background Depressive disorder is the largest contributor to years lived with disability in the Caribbean, adding 948 per 100,000 in 2013. Depression is also a major risk factor for suicidal behaviour. Social inequalities influence the occurrence of depression, yet little is known about the social inequalities of this condition in the Caribbean. In support of the 2011 Rio Political Declaration on addressing health inequities, this article presents a systematic review of the role of social determinants on depression and its suicidal behaviours in the Caribbean. Methods Eight databases were searched for observational studies reporting associations between social determinants and depression frequency, severity, or outcomes. Based on the PROGRESS-plus checklist, we considered 9 social determinant groups (of 15 endpoints) for 6 depression endpoints, totalling 90 possible ways ( € relationship groups') to explore the role of social determinants on depression. Studies with ≥50 participants conducted in Caribbean territories between 2004 and 2014 were eligible. The review was conducted according to STROBE and PRISMA guidelines. Results were planned as a narrative synthesis, with meta-analysis if possible. Results from 3951 citations, 55 articles from 45 studies were included. Most were classified as serious risk of bias. Fifty-seven relationship groups were reported by the 55 included articles, leaving 33 relationship groups (37%) without an evidence base. Most associations were reported for gender, age, residence, marital status, and education. Depression, its severity, and its outcomes were more common among females (except suicide which was more common among males), early and middle adolescents (among youth), and those with lower levels of education. Marriage emerged as both a risk and protective factor for depression score and prevalence, while several inequality relationships in Haiti were in contrast to typical trends. Conclusion the risk of bias and few numbers of studies within relationship groups restricted the synthesis of Caribbean evidence on social inequalities of depression. Along with more research focusing on regional social inequalities, attempts at standardizing reporting guidelines for observational studies of inequality and studies examining depression is necessitated. This review offers as a benchmark to prioritize future research into the social determinants of depression frequency and outcomes in the Caribbean.

AIM: the purpose of this study was to document in people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Barbados, attitudes and beliefs that may result in psychological insulin resistance. METHODS: a representative, population-based, sample of 175 eligible people with T2DM 25 years of age and over was surveyed by telephone. The 20-item insulin treatment appraisal scale (ITAS) was administered (score range 20 to 100 for positive to negative perceptions). RESULTS: 117 people participated (67% response rate, 32% male, mean age 66 years, 90% Black, 22% on insulin). of non-responders, 52 were not contactable and 6 were difficult to communicate with. Negative perceptions about insulin use included - meant a worsening of diabetes (68%), would worry family (63%), feared self-injection (58%), meant a failure in self-management (57%), injections were painful (54%), would be seen as being sicker (46%), increased hypoglycaemia risk (38%), required effort (34%), causes weight gain (27%), causes a deterioration in health (14%), and would have to give up enjoyable activities (10%). Positive perceptions were - helps good glycaemic control (78%), would prevent complications (61%) and improves health (58%). Mean total ITAS score (61.6, SD = 7.7) was lower for those on insulin compared to those not on insulin (53.7 vs. 63.8, p 

A 10% excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) was implemented in Barbados in September 2015. A national evaluation has been established to assess the impact of the tax. We present a descriptive analysis of initial price changes following implementation of the SSB tax using price data provided by a major supermarket chain in Barbados over the period 2014–2016. We summarize trends in price changes for SSBs and non-SSBs before and after the tax using year-on-year mean price per liter. We find that prior to the tax, the year-on-year growth of SSB and non-SSB prices was very similar (approximately 1%). During the quarter in which the tax was implemented, the trends diverged, with SSB price growth increasing to 3% and that of non-SSBs decreasing slightly. The growth of SSB prices outpaced non-SSBs prices in each quarter thereafter, reaching 5.9% compared to < 1% for non-SSBs. Future analyses will assess the trends in prices of SSBs and non-SSBs over a longer period and will integrate price data from additional sources to assess heterogeneity of post-tax price changes. A continued examination of the impact of the SSB tax in Barbados will expand the evidence base available to policymakers worldwide in considering SSB taxes as a lever for reducing the consumption of added sugar at the population level.

Aim: the study tested the hypothesis that doctors using an insulin information checklist during simulated insulin initiation would impart more information regarding insulin use. Methods: a total of 128 simulations were conducted. Doctors (n = 64) were recruited from practitioners recently completing internship (n = 19) and those established in primary care (n = 45). Both groups of doctors were strata randomized to control (n = 32) and intervention groups (n = 32), so that each group contained equal numbers. Doctors in each group experienced two identical simulations of insulin initiation with an intervening period of 10 min. Doctors in the intervention arm were introduced to an insulin initiation checklist, which they reviewed independently and utilized in the second simulation. Trained assessors captured the provision of education in 21 predefined educational areas. Differences in the change of the total education provided between the first and second simulations were assessed using linear regression. Results: the difference in the mean change of education provided between the first and second simulations within the 21 educational areas for the control and treatment groups was 9.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.8–11.1, P < 0.001] – an increase of 46.2%. The difference for the 15 areas relevant to pen use was 7.3 (95% CI: 6.2–8.4, P < 0.001) – an increase of 51.6%. Conclusions: the checklist resulted in doctors providing significantly more education applicable to syringe and insulin pen routes of insulin administration during simulations. Further research is needed on the checklist's impact on healthcare professionals and patient outcomes in the clinical context. (Clinical Trials Registry No: NCT02266303).

Background: Current understanding of population physical activity (PA) levels and sedentary behaviour in developing countries is limited, and based primarily on self-report. We described PA levels using objective and self-report methods in a developing country population. Methods: PA was assessed in a cross-sectional, representative sample of the population of Barbados (25-54 years), using a validated questionnaire (RPAQ) and individually calibrated combined heart rate and movement sensing monitors. The RPAQ collects information on recalled activity in 4 domains: home, work, transport, and leisure. Physical inactivity was defined according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines; sedentary lifestyle was defined as being sedentary for 8 h or more daily; PA overestimation was defined as perceiving activity to be sufficient, when classified as 'inactive' by objective measurement. Results: According to objective estimates, 90.5 % (95 % CI: 83.3,94.7) of women and 58.9 % (48.4,68.7) of men did not accumulate sufficient activity to meet WHO minimum recommendations. Overall, 50.7 % (43.3,58.1) of the population was sedentary for 8 h or more each day, and 60.1 % (52.8,66.9) overestimated their activity levels. The prevalence of inactivity was underestimated by self-report in both genders by 28 percentage points (95 % CI: 18,38), but the accuracy of reporting differed by age group, education level, occupational grade, and overweight/obesity status. Low PA was greater in more socially privileged groups: higher educational level and higher occupational grade were both associated with less objectively measured PA and more sedentary time. Variation in domain-specific self-reported physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) by educational attainment was observed: higher education level was associated with more leisure activity and less occupational activity. Occupational PA was the main driver of PAEE for women and men according to self-report, contributing 57 % (95 % CI: 52,61). The most popular leisure activities for both genders were walking and gardening. Conclusions: the use of both objective and self-report methods to assess PA and sedentary behaviour provides important complementary information to guide public health programmes. Our results emphasize the urgent need to increase PA and reduce sedentary time in this developing country population. Women and those with higher social economic position are particularly at risk from low levels of physical activity.

Background: the Caribbean has one of the largest cruise ship industries in the world, with close to 20 million visitors per year. The potential for communicable disease outbreaks on vessels and the transmission by ship between countries is high. Barbados has one of the busiest ports in the Caribbean. Our aim was to describe and analyse the epidemiology of illnesses experienced by passengers and crew arriving at the Bridgetown Port, Barbados between 2009 and 2013. Methods: Data on the illnesses recorded were extracted from the passenger and crew arrival registers and passenger and crew illness logs for all ships and maritime vessels arriving at Barbados' Ports and passing through its territorial waters between January 2009 and December 2013. Data were entered into an Epi Info database and most of the analysis undertaken using Epi Info Version 7. Rates per 100,000 visits were calculated, and confidence intervals on these were derived using the software Openepi. Results: There were 1031 cases of illness from over 3 million passenger visits and 1 million crew visits during this period. The overall event rate for communicable illnesses was 15.7 (95 % CI 14.4-17.1) per 100,000 passengers, and for crew was 24.0 (21.6-26.6) per 100, 000 crew. Gastroenteritis was the predominant illness experienced by passengers and crew followed by influenza. The event rate for gastroenteritis among passengers was 13.7 (12.5-15.0) per 100,000 and 14.4 (12.6, 16.5) for crew. The event rate for non-communicable illnesses was 3.4 per 100,000 passengers with myocardial infarction being the main diagnosis. The event rate for non-communicable illnesses among crew was 2.1 per 100,000, the leading cause being injuries. Conclusions: the predominant illnesses reported were gastroenteritis and influenza similar to previous published reports from around the world. This study is the first of its type in the Caribbean and the data provide a baseline for future surveillance and for comparison with other countries and regions.

BACKGROUND: Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. METHODS: Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. RESULTS: Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. DISCUSSION: CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically.

Data on disparities in mortality within low and middle income countries are limited, with little published data from the Caribbean or Central America. Our aim was to investigate disparities in overall and cause specific premature adult mortality in the multi-ethnic middle income country of Belize. Methods Mortality data from Belize 2008-2010 classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10 and the 2010 census stratified by age and ethnicity were used to calculate age, sex, and ethnic specific mortality rates for those 15-59 years, and life table analysis was used to estimate the probability of death between the ages of 15 and 59 (45q15). Results the probability of death among those aged 15 to 59 years was 18.1% (women 13.5%, men 22.7%). Creole and Garifuna ethnic groups have three times the 45q15 probability of death compared to Mayan and Mestizo groups (Creole 31.2%, Garifuna 31.1%, Mayan 10.2%, Mestizo 12.0%). This pattern of ethnic disparity existed in both sexes but was greater in men. The probability of death from injurieswas 14.8% among Creole men, more than twice the rate of other ethnicities and peaks among young Creole men. These deaths are dominated by homicides and unspecified deaths involving firearms Conclusions Marked disparities in mortality between ethnic groups exist in this Central American/Caribbean country, from rates that are typical of high-income countries to those of low-income countries. The pattern of these extreme differences likely suggests that they reflect underlying social determinants rooted in the country's colonial past.

Background: Transitions in medical education are emotionally and socially dynamic; this may affect learning. Students transitioning from preclinical to clinical training may experience negative consequences. Less is understood about students’ experiences during transitions within clinical training and influential factors. Methods: the authors used organizational socialization theory to explore a transition within the clinical years. Final-year medical students experienced a nine-week internal medicine clerkship; willing students participated. Students (n = 101; 97 %) completed a questionnaire with open-ended questions at the beginning and end of the clerkship and participated in six consecutive focus groups, until data saturation occurred (n = 37). Data were thematically analyzed. Results: Socialization was challenging. Many students experienced difficulty developing relationships with team members. Students with a positive attitude experienced a smoother transition. Many students were uncertain of their roles, concerned about the workload and desired guidance to meet clerkship demands. This transition resulted in varied outcomes from enjoyment, increased confidence and student development through to disinterest. Conclusion: Transitions within clinical training are complex. Faculty should focus on adequate socialization in a new clerkship as this may facilitate a smoother transition. This may necessitate orientations, staff training, and formal student support. Further research is needed on the impact of these recommendations on learning and well-being.

Objectives. We investigated changes in life expectancy (LE) and cause-specific mortality over time, directly comparing African-descent populations in the United States and the Caribbean. Methods. We compared LE at birth and cause-specific mortality in 6 disease groups between Caribbean countries with a majority (> 90%) African-descent population and US African Americans. Results. The LE improvement among African Americans exceeded that of Afro-Caribbeans so that the LE gap, which favored the Caribbean population by 1.5 years in 1990, had been reversed by 2009. This relative improvement among African Americans was mainly the result of the improving mortality experience of African American men. Between 2000 and 2009, Caribbean mortality rates in 5 of the 6 disease groups increased relative to those of African Americans. By 2009, mortality from cerebrovascular diseases, cancers, and diabetes was higher in Afro-Caribbeans relative to African Americans, with a diabetes mortality rate twice that of African Americans and 4 times that of White Americans. Conclusions. The Caribbean community made important mortality reductions between 2000 and 2009, but this progress fell short of African American health improvements in the same period, especially among men.

Objective: to describe the distribution of diabetes, hypertension and related behavioural and biological risk factors in adults in Barbados by gender, education and occupation. Design: Multistage probability sampling was used to select a representative sample of the adult population (≥25 years). Participants were interviewed using standard questionnaires, underwent anthropometric and blood pressure measurements, and provided fasting blood for glucose and cholesterol measurements. Standard WHO definitions were used. Data were weighted for sampling and non-response, and were age and sex standardised to the 2010 Barbados population. Weighted prevalence estimates were calculated, and prevalence ratios were calculated for behavioural and biological risk factors by demographic and socioeconomic group. Results: Study response rate was 55.0%, with 764 women, 470 men. Prevalence of obesity was 33.8% (95% CI 30.7% to 37.1%); hypertension 40.6% (95% CI 36.5% to 44.9%); and diabetes 18.7% (95% CI 16.2% to 21.4%). Compared with women, men were less likely to be obese (prevalence ratio 0.5; 95% CI 0.4 to 0.7), or physically inactive (0.5; 0.4 to 0.6), but more likely to smoke tobacco (4.1; 2.5 to 6.7) and consume large amounts of alcohol in a single episode (4.6; 2.7 to 7.6). Both diabetes (0.83; 0.65 to 1.05) and hypertension (0.89; 0.79 to 1.02) were lower in men, but not significantly so. In women, higher educational level was related to higher fruit and vegetable intake, more physical activity, less diabetes and less hypercholesterolaemia ( p 0.01-0.04). In men, higher education was related only to less smoking ( p 0.04). Differences by occupation were limited to smoking in men and hypercholesterolaemia in women. Conclusions: in this developing country population, sex appears to be a much stronger determinant of behavioural risk factors, as well as obesity and its related risks, than education or occupation. These findings have implications for meeting the commitments made in the 2011 Rio Political Declaration, to eliminate health inequities.

In today's globalized world, rapid urbanization, mechanization of the rural economy, and the activities of transnational food, drink and tobacco corporations are associated with behavioral changes that increase the risk of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). These changes include less healthy diet, lower physical activity, tobacco smoking and increased alcohol consumption. As a result, population health profiles are rapidly changing. For example, the global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus is expected to double by 2030, with 80% of adult cases occurring in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Many LMIC are undergoing rapid changes associated with developing high rates of NCD while concomitantly battling high levels of certain communicable diseases, including HIV, TB and malaria. This has population health, health systems and economic implications for these countries. This critical review synthesizes evidence on the overlap and interactions between established communicable and emerging NCD epidemics in LMIC. The review focuses on HIV, TB and malaria and explores the disease-specific interactions with prevalent NCDs in LMIC including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic renal disease, epilepsy and neurocognitive diseases. We highlight the complexity, bi-directionality and heterogeneity of these interactions and discuss the implications for health systems.

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings: Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion: Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives. © 2014 Mason et al.

BACKGROUND: Palestinian refugees have been a displaced group of people since 1948, many of whom are living in refugee camps in the Middle East. They are entitled to free health care from the United Nations Relief and Work Agency (UNRWA). They show a higher prevalence of diabetes than the population in their host countries in the Middle East. This study examined the realities of care for diabetic patients in UNRWA health clinics in Damascus, Syria. The aim was three-fold: to investigate the level of diabetes care, to probe patients' level of general understanding of their disease and its management, and to search for areas of potential improvement. METHODS: Data on patient education and care was gathered over a 1 month period from August 4, 2008 to September 4, 2008 using questionnaires and direct observation of the workflow at the clinics. Clinic-led care was observed by the study team using checklists during patient visits. All of the clinic staff and sampled patients were interviewed. The main areas of care assessed were: Patient follow-up; examination of eyes and feet; availability of medications; and patient education. A total of 154 people with diabetes were sampled from three refugee camps situated around Damascus. RESULTS: a total of 154 patients, three doctors and seven nurses composed the sample of the study. Foot examinations were almost always neglected by health staff and eye examinations were not offered by the UNRWA clinics. Interviews with patients showed that: 67% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.59-0.70) had to buy their medication at their own expense at least once due to medication shortage in the UNRWA clinics, 48% (95% CI: 0.40-0.55) displayed poor knowledge regarding the cause and exacerbating factors of diabetes, 65% (95% CI: 0.56-0.72) had not heard of insulin, and 43% (95% CI: 0.35-0.51) did not know for how long they needed to take their medications.

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: in 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: the salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Background: Although the association between cerebrovascular and coronary artery disease (CAD) is well known in high-income countries, this association is not well documented in black Africans. Aims: the aim of this study was to document electrocardiographic (ECG) evidence of CAD in stroke cases and controls and to identify other common ECG abnormalities related to known stroke risk factors in a community-based population of incident stroke cases in Tanzania, East Africa. Methods: This was a case-control study. Incident stroke cases were identified by the Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project. Age- and sex-matched controls were randomly selected from the background population. Electrocardiograms were manually analyzed using the Minnesota Coding System, looking for evidence of previous myocardial infarction (MI), atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter (AFl), and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). Results: in Hai, there were 93 cases and 241 controls with codable electrocardiograms, and in Dar-es-Salaam, there were 39 cases and 72 controls with codable electrocardiograms. Comparing cases and controls, there was a higher prevalence of MI and AF or AFl (but not LVH) in cases compared with controls. Conclusions: This is the first published study of ECG assessment of CAD and other stroke risk factors in an incident population of stroke cases in sub-Saharan Africa. It suggests that concomitant CAD in black African stroke cases is more common than previously suggested. © 2014 by National Stroke Association.

Background: Evidence suggests a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the Netherlands than in England, although generalized obesity prevalence is substantially lower in the Netherlands. Metabolic syndrome (MS) is more strongly associated with the risk of progression to T2D than generalized obesity. Therefore examining MS may help to better understand the differences in T2D between the two countries. We assessed whether the Dutch and English differences in T2D prevalence reflect similar differences in MS in Whites, South-Asian Indians and African-Caribbeans living in these two countries. Methods: Secondary analyses of population-based studies of 3010 participants aged 35-60 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the International Diabetes Federation criteria. Prevalence ratios (PRs) were estimated using regression models. Results: in general, the Dutch ethnic groups had a higher prevalence of MS than their English counterparts. Adjusted PRs were 1.37[95% confidence interval (CI)1.03-1.82] and 1.52 (1.06-2.19) in White-Dutch men and women compared to White-English men and women; 2.20 (1.14-4.26) and 1.46 (0.96-2.24) in Dutch-African-Caribbean men and women compared to English-African-Caribbean men and women and 0.97 (0.74-1.27) and 1.42 (1.00-2.03) in Dutch-Indian men and women compared with their English-Indian peers, respectively. Similar patterns were also observed for some MS components, e.g. raised fasting glucose in men and central obesity in women. Conclusion: the comparatively high prevalence of MS among Dutch ethnic groups may contribute to their high prevalence of T2D. The high levels of some MS components, e.g. raised fasting glucose in men and central obesity in women add to the high prevalence of MS in Dutch ethnic groups. © 2012 the Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Background. This study aimed to identify correlates of case fatality within an incident stroke population in rural Tanzania. Methods. Stroke patients, identified by the Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project, underwent a full examination and assessment around the time of incident stroke. Records were made of demographic data, blood pressure, pulse rate and rhythm, physical function (Barthel index), neurological status (communication, swallowing, vision, muscle activity, sensation), echocardiogram, chest X-ray and computed tomography (CT) head scan. Cases were followed up over the next 3 - 6 years. Results. In 130 incident cases included in this study, speech, language and swallowing problems, reduced muscle power, and reduced physical function were all significantly correlated with case fatality at 28 days and 3 years. Age was significantly correlated with case fatality at 3 years, but not at 28 days post-stroke. Smoking history was the only significant correlate of case fatality at 28 days that pre-dated the incident stroke. All other significant correlates were measures of neurological recovery from stroke. Conclusions. This is the first published study of the correlates of post-stroke case fatality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from an incident stroke population. Case fatality was correlated with the various motor impairments resulting from the incident stroke. Improving poststroke care may help to reduce stroke case fatality in SSA.

Aims: This study assessed the relationship between highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) duration and cardiometabolic disorders in HIV-infected Cameroonians. Methods: HIV-infected Cameroonians aged 21 years or above were cross-sectionally recruited at the Yaoundé Central Hospital, a certified HIV care centre, and their anthropometry, body composition (impedancemetry), fasting blood glucose (FBG) and lipid levels, and insulin sensitivity (IS; short insulin tolerance test) were measured. Results: a total of 143 participants with various durations of HAART [treatment-naïve (n= 28), 1-13 months (n= 44), 14-33 months (n= 35) and 34-86 months (n= 36)] were recruited. They were mostly women (72%), and had a mean age of 39.5 (SD: 9.8) years. Half (52%) were using a stavudine-containing regimen. There was a significant trend towards a positive change in body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio with increasing duration of HAART (all P= 0.02). Systolic (P= 0.04) and diastolic (P= 0.03) blood pressure, total cholesterol (P= 0.01), prevalence of hypertension (P= 0.04) and hypercholesterolaemia (P= 0.007) were also significantly increased with HAART duration, whereas triglycerides, FBG and IS were unaffected. Clustering of metabolic disorders increased (P= 0.02 for ≥ 1 component of the metabolic syndrome and P= 0.09 for ≥ 2 components) with HAART duration. Conclusion: HAART duration is associated with obesity, fat distribution, blood pressure and cholesterol levels in HIV-infected Cameroonians, but does not appear to significantly affect glucose metabolism. © 2012.

OBJECTIVES: in response to the escalating epidemic of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Mediterranean Region (MR), an international collaboration aiming at understanding the burden of CVD and evaluating cost-effective strategies to combat it was recently established. This paper describes the rationale and methods of the project MedCHAMPS to disseminate this successful experience. METHODS: the framework of MedCHAMPS is exceptional in combining multiple disciplines (e.g. epidemiology, anthropology, economics), countries [Turkey, Syria, occupied Palestinian territory (oPt), Tunisia, UK, Ireland], research methods (situational and policy analysis, quantitative and qualitative studies, statistical modeling), and involving local stakeholders at all levels to assess trends of CVD/diabetes in the society and attributes of the local health care systems to provide optimal policy recommendations to reduce the burden of CVD/diabetes. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: MedCHAMPS provides policy makers in the MR and beyond needed guidance about the burden of CVD, and best cost-effective ways to combat it. Our approach of building developed-developing countries collaboration also provides a roadmap for other researchers seeking to build research base into CVD epidemiology and prevention in developing countries.

Background the burden of stroke on health systems in low-income and middle-income countries is increasing. However, high-quality data for modifiable stroke risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce, with no communitybased, case-control studies previously published. We aimed to identify risk factors for stroke in an incident population from rural and urban Tanzania. Methods Stroke cases from urban Dar-es-Salaam and the rural Hai district were recruited in a wider study of stroke incidence between June 15, 2003, and June 15, 2006. We included cases with first-ever and recurrent stroke. Community-acquired controls recruited from the background census populations of the two study regions were matched with cases for age and sex and were interviewed and assessed. Data relating to medical and social history were recorded and blood samples taken. Findings We included 200 stroke cases (69 from Dar-es-Salaam and 131 from Hai) and 398 controls (138 from Dar-es- Salaam and 260 from Hai). Risk factors were similar at both sites, with previous cardiac event (odds ratio [OR] 7·39, 95% CI 2·42-22·53; p

Background: the effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex are not available. Methods: We reviewed large cohort pooling projects, evaluating effects of baseline or usual exposure to metabolic risks on ischemic heart disease (IHD), hypertensive heart disease (HHD), stroke, diabetes, and, as relevant selected other CVDs, after adjusting for important confounders. We pooled all data to estimate relative risks (RRs) for each risk factor and examined effect modification by age or other factors, using random effects models. Results: Across all risk factors, an average of 123 cohorts provided data on 1.4 million individuals and 52,000 CVD events. Each metabolic risk factor was robustly related to CVD. At the baseline age of 55-64 years, the RR for 10 mmHg higher SBP was largest for HHD (2.16; 95% CI 2.09-2.24), followed by effects on both stroke subtypes (1.66; 1.39-1.98 for hemorrhagic stroke and 1.63; 1.57-1.69 for ischemic stroke). In the same age group, RRs for 1 mmol/L higher TC were 1.44 (1.29-1.61) for IHD and 1.20 (1.15-1.25) for ischemic stroke. The RRs for 5 kg/m2 higher BMI for ages 55-64 ranged from 2.32 (2.04-2.63) for diabetes, to 1.44 (1.40-1.48) for IHD. For 1 mmol/L higher FPG, RRs in this age group were 1.18 (1.08-1.29) for IHD and 1.14 (1.01-1.29) for total stroke. For all risk factors, proportional effects declined with age, were generally consistent by sex, and differed by region in only a few age groups for certain risk factor-disease pairs. Conclusion: Our results provide robust, comparable and precise estimates of the effects of major metabolic risk factors on CVD and diabetes by age group.

Background the authors aimed to determine whether, and by how much, diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of tuberculosis (TB) and conversely whether TB increases the risk of DM. Methods Retrospective cohort analyses using data from two Oxford Record Linkage Study (ORLS) datasets, containing information on hospital admissions and daycase care between 1963 and 1998 (ORLS1) and between 1999 and 2005 (ORLS2), were carried out. The rate ratio (RR) for tuberculosis after admission to hospital with diabetes and for diabetes after hospital admission with tuberculosis was calculated. Results in ORLS1, the RR for TB in people admitted to hospital with DM, comparing the latter with a reference cohort, was 1.83 (95% CI 1.26 to 2.60), and in ORLS2 the RR was 3.11 (1.17 to 7.03). RRs for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) within ORLS1 were similar at, respectively, 1.80 (1.16 to 2.67) and 1.98 (0.88 to 3.92). In ORLS 2 the RR for PTB was 2.63 (0.91 to 6.30). In ORLS1, there was no indication that TB was a risk factor for DM (RR 1.12, 0.76 to 1.60). The ORLS2 dataset was too small to analyse whether TB led to DM. Discussion DM was associated with a two- to threefold increased risk of TB within this predominantly white, English population. The authors found no evidence that TB increases the risk of DM. Our findings suggest that the risks of PTB and EPTB were both raised among individuals with DM. As DM prevalence rises, this association will become increasingly important for TB control and treatment.

Background: Research investigating early life effects on fibrinogen levels in adult life has produced conflicting results. The aim of this study was to examine and quantify the direct and indirect associations between fetal, infancy and adult risk factors and fibrinogen levels, at age 49-51 years, using data from the Newcastle Thousand Families Study. Methods: Detailed information was collected prospectively during childhood, including birth weight, duration of being breast fed and socio-economic conditions. At age 49-51 years, 574 study members returned self-completion questionnaires and 412 attended for clinical examination, including the measurement of plasma fibrinogen concentrations in 173 men and 221 women. These data were analysed using linear regression and path analyses. Results: Poorer quality housing conditions at birth (p = 0.001), longer duration of being breast fed (p = 0.025), lower current body fat percentage (p < 0.001), not being a current smoker (p < 0.001) and moderate current alcohol consumption (p = 0.002) were significant independent predictors of lower plasma fibrinogen concentration at age 49-51 years. No association was observed between plasma fibrinogen concentration and standardised birth weight or with time since stopping smoking among former smokers. Conclusion: Concentration of plasma fibrinogen in adulthood is influenced by a range of factors from different stages of life. Although birth weight was not a predictor, there were significant associations with housing conditions in early life and duration of being breast fed. Regardless, the strongest predictors were smoking and contemporary percent body fat. Therefore, modification of these factors would be the most likely way to reduce concentrations of plasma fibrinogen in adulthood. © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Background: to assess the pattern of metabolic profile associated with first stroke episode in a hospital setting in Cameroon. Methods: all patients admitted for first-ever-in-lifetime stroke over a 6-month period were eligible for inclusion in the study. The 84% participation rate yielded 57 of 68 patients between 16 and 85 years of age. Fifty-seven control subjects were selected to match patients included for age range, sex, and known hypertension and diabetes. We measured fasting serum glucose, insulin, and lipids in controls and in patients between days 3 and 7 after admission. Results: Total cholesterol was comparable in patients and controls (172.6 ± 39.5 v 175.4 ± 49.7 mg/dL; P =.75), as were triglycerides (129.4 ± 56.1 v 122.4 ± 60.7 mg/dL; P =.53). high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels were lower in patients than in controls (37.4 ± 20.6 v 50.2 ± 18.0 mg/dL; P =.001), with comparable levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C; 109.4 ± 43.0 v 100.7 ± 48.8 mg/dL; P =.32). The LDL-C/HDL-C ratio was higher in patients compared to controls (4.0 ± 3.0 v 2.3 ± 1.7; P =.0001), as was the total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio (5.9 ± 3.5 v 3.9 ± 1.8; P =. 0001). Compared to controls, stroke patients had higher fasting insulin levels (5.9 ± 5.4 v 2.3 ± 3.2 IU/mL; P

The growing global burden of non communicable diseases (NCDs) is now killing 36 million people each year and needs urgent and comprehensive action. This article provides an overview of key critical issues that need to be resolved to ensure that recent political commitments are translated into practical action. These include: (i) categorizing and prioritizing NCDs in order to inform donor funding commitments and priorities for intervention; (ii) finding the right balance between the relative importance of treatment and prevention to ensure that responses cover those at risk, and those who are already sick; (iii) defining the appropriate health systems response to address the needs of patients with diseases characterized by long duration and often slow progression; (iv) research needs, in particular translational research in the delivery of care; and (v) sustained funding to support the global NCD response. © 2012 Maher et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Historically, an association between tuberculosis and diabetes was recognised clinically, and the recent global rise in diabetes prevalence has reignited interest. We therefore quantified the tuberculosis-diabetes association using US survey data. A case-control analysis was performed using cross-sectional data from the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1976-1980; civilian non-institutionalised US population aged 20-74). Cases were respondents ever diagnosed with tuberculosis, and controls were respondents who reported never receiving a tuberculosis diagnosis. Exposure to diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia was defined using a self-reported measure, an oral glucose tolerance test, or both. We used logistic regression to estimate an adjusted odds ratio, controlling for potential major confounders. In relation to the main exposure measure, the adjusted odds ratio for the association between tuberculosis and diabetes varied between 2.31 (95% confidence interval 1.36-3.93) and 2.36 (95% confidence interval 1.40-3.97), depending on the model. No association was found for intermediate hyperglycaemia, with adjusted odds ratio varying between 1.33 (95% confidence interval 0.49-3.64) and 1.34 (95% confidence interval 0.50-3.62), depending on model. Irrespective of the exposure measure and the confounders controlled for, diabetes was associated with an increased tuberculosis risk. This study may underestimate the true association due to exposure misclassification.

OBJECTIVE: to systematically review published primary research on the development or validation of risk scores that require only self-reported or available clinical data to identify undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: a systematic literature search of Medline and EMBASE was conducted until January 2011. Studies focusing on the development or validation of risk scores to identify undiagnosed T2DM were included. Risk scores to predict future risk of T2DM were excluded. RESULTS: Thirty-one studies were included; 17 developed a new risk score, 14 validated existing scores. Twenty-six studies were conducted in high-income countries. Age and measures of body mass/fat distribution were the most commonly used predictor variables. Studies developing new scores performed better than validation studies, with 11 reporting an AUC of >0.80 compared to one validation study. Fourteen validation studies reported sensitivities of

Aim the Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model has been interpreted to suggest that a substantial number of people with diabetes are 'missed'. An affluent suburb of Newcastle upon Tyne has a low known diabetes prevalence. We aimed to determine the true prevalence of diabetes in the practice population aged over 60years and compare our prevalence estimate with that of the Association of Public Health Observatories Diabetes Prevalence Model (18.0%; uncertainty limit 10.7-27.7%). At baseline, the known prevalence of diabetes in this group was 7.4%. Methods all individuals aged 60years and over registered with one general practice in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, not known to have diabetes (n=1375), were invited for a standard oral glucose tolerance test and measurement of HbA 1c. Standard World Health Organization cut points for fasting and post-challenge glucose on oral glucose tolerance test or HbA 1c≥48mmol/mol (6.5%) were used to identify diabetes. Results Five hundred and eighty-four individuals (42.5%) attended for screening. Using oral glucose tolerance test criteria, 4.5% were identified with undiagnosed diabetes. Using HbA 1c, 3.1% had undiagnosed diabetes. The estimated prevalence of total diabetes for the practice population aged 60years and older is 11.8 (10.5-13.2%) and 10.3 (9.3-11.6) for oral glucose tolerance test and HbA 1c criteria, respectively. Conclusions the prevalence of diabetes in those aged 60years and older registered with this practice is lower than the point estimate of the Association of Public Health Observatories Diabetes Prevalence Model, but within its uncertainty limits. Application of the Association of Public Health Observatories model must take into account its uncertainty limits. © 2011 the Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2011 Diabetes UK.

Public policy plays a key role in improving population health and in the control of diseases, including non-communicable diseases. However, an evidence-based approach to formulating healthy public policy has been difficult to implement, partly on account of barriers that hinder integrated work between researchers and policy-makers. This paper describes a "policy effectiveness-feasibility loop" (PEFL) that brings together epidemiological modelling, local situation analysis and option appraisal to foster collaboration between researchers and policy-makers. Epidemiological modelling explores the determinants of trends in disease and the potential health benefits of modifying them. Situation analysis investigates the current conceptualization of policy, the level of policy awareness and commitment among key stakeholders, and what actually happens in practice, thereby helping to identify policy gaps. Option appraisal integrates epidemiological modelling and situation analysis to investigate the feasibility, costs and likely health benefits of various policy options. The authors illustrate how PEFL was used in a project to inform public policy for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in four parts of the eastern Mediterranean. They conclude that PEFL may offer a useful framework for researchers and policy-makers to successfully work together to generate evidence-based policy, and they encourage further evaluation of this approach.

Public policy plays a key role in improving population health and in the control of diseases, including non-communicable diseases. However, an evidence-based approach to formulating healthy public policy has been difficult to implement, partly on account of barriers that hinder integrated work between researchers and policy-makers. This paper describes a "policy effectiveness-feasibility loop" (PEFL) that brings together epidemiological modelling, local situation analysis and option appraisal to foster collaboration between researchers and policy-makers. Epidemiological modelling explores the determinants of trends in disease and the potential health benefits of modifying them. Situation analysis investigates the current conceptualization of policy, the level of policy awareness and commitment among key stakeholders, and what actually happens in practice, thereby helping to identify policy gaps. Option appraisal integrates epidemiological modelling and situation analysis to investigate the feasibility, costs and likely health benefits of various policy options. The authors illustrate how PEFL was used in a project to inform public policy for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in four parts of the eastern Mediterranean. They conclude that PEFL may offer a useful framework for researchers and policy-makers to successfully work together to generate evidence-based policy, and they encourage further evaluation of this approach.

Objective: to determine the prevalence of risk factors for chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs) among staff of the University of the West Indies (UWI), Cave Hill campus, in Barbados. Methods: a self-administered questionnaire comprising validated questions from the WHO STEPS NCD Risk Factor Survey, the Jamaica Healthy Lifestyle (JHL) Survey and the Behaviour Risk Factor (BRF) Survey, was conducted during the Staff Health Day in May 2010, and at four locations on campus during July 2010. Standardized measurements of weight, height and blood pressure were taken. Data were analysed using EXCEL and STATA and results were compared to the Barbados 2007 STEPS NCD survey. Results: the target population was all staff at the Cave Hill campus of UWI. The coverage rate was 25.2% (269/1068); 63.8% of males and 75% of females were either overweight or obese. Ninety-seven per cent ate less than the recommended 5 fruits and vegetables per day. Low levels of physical activity were reported in 51.9% of males and 62.2% of females. Thirty-two per cent of males and 13% of females were binge drinkers. All participants had at least one of the risk factors (current daily smoker, < 5 fruits and vegetables/day, physical inactivity, overweight/obese and raised blood pressure) whilst 48% of males and 57.2% of females demonstrated three or more risk factors. These results are similar to those found in the Barbados STEPS NCD risk factor survey of 2007. Conclusion: the results confirm a similar high prevalence of NCD risk factors among Cave Hill UWI staff as among the Barbadian population. The study reveals opportunities to inform policy on strategies to positively impact the risk factors.

Background: We determined whether the overall lower prevalence of type II diabetes in England versus the Netherlands is observed in South-Asian-Indian and African-Caribbean populations. Additionally, we assessed the contribution of health behavior, body size, and socioeconomic position to observed differences between countries. Methods: Secondary analyses of population-based standardized individual-level data of 3386 participants were conducted. Results: Indian and African-Caribbean populations had higher prevalence rates of diabetes than whites in both countries. In crosscountry comparisons (and similar to whites), Indians residing in England had a lower prevalence of diabetes than those residing in the Netherlands; the prevalence ratio (PR) was 0.35 (95% confidence interval = 0.22 to 0.55) in women and 0.74 (0.50 to 1.10) in men after adjustment for other covariates. Among people of African descent as well, diabetes prevalence was lower in England than in the Netherlands; for women, PR = 0.43 (0.20 to 0.89) and for men, 0.57 (0.21 to 1.49). Conclusions: the increasing prevalence of diabetes after migration may be modified by the context in which ethnic minority groups live. © 2011 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Background: Data on non-communicable disease (NCD) burden are often limited in developing countries in Africa but crucial for planning and implementation of prevention and control strategies. We assessed the prevalence of related cardiovascular disease risk factors (hyperglycaemia, high blood pressure and obesity) in a longstanding population cohort in rural Uganda. Methods: Trained field staff conducted a cross-sectional population-based survey of cardiovascular disease risk indicators using a questionnaire and simple measurements of body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumference, waist/hip ratio (WHR), blood pressure and random plasma glucose. All members of the population cohort aged ≥13 years were eligible to participate in the survey. Results: of the 4801 males and 5372 females who were eligible, 2719 (56.6%) males and 3959 (73.7%) females participated in the survey. Male and female participants had a mean standard deviation (SD) age of 31.8 (18.4) years and 33.7 (17.6) years, respectively. The observed prevalences of probable diabetes (glucose ≥11.0 mmol/l) and probable hyperglycaemia (7.0-11.0 mmol/l) were 0.4 and 2.9%, respectively. Less than 1% of males and 4% of females were obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2), with 3.6% of males and 14.5% of females being overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m2). However, in women, the prevalence of abdominal obesity was high (71.3% as measured by WHR and 31.2% as measured by waist circumference). The proportions of male and female current regular smokers were low (13.7 and 0.9%, respectively). The commonest cardiovascular disease risk factor was high blood pressure, with an observed prevalence of 22.5% in both sexes. Conclusions: Population-based data on the burden of related cardiovascular disease risk factors can aid in the planning and implementation of an effective response to the double burden of communicable diseases and NCDs in this rural population of a low-income country undergoing epidemiological transition. © the Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association. All rights reserved.

Background:Ethnic minority groups in Western European countries tend to have higher levels of overweight than the majority populations for reasons that are poorly understood. Investigating relative differences between countries could enable an investigation of the importance of national context in determining these inequalities.Objective:To explore: (1) whether Indian and African origin populations in England and the Netherlands are similarly disadvantaged compared with the White populations in terms of the prevalence of overweight and central obesity; (2) whether the previously known Dutch advantage of relatively low overweight prevalence is also observed in Dutch ethnic minority groups and (3) the contribution of health behaviour and socio-economic position to the differences observed.Methods:Secondary analyses of population-based studies of 16 406 participants from England and the Netherlands. Prevalence ratios were estimated using regression models.Results:Except for African men, ethnic minority groups in both countries had higher rates of overweight and central obesity than their White counterparts. However, the Dutch minority groups were relatively more disadvantaged than English minority groups as compared with the majority populations. The Dutch advantage of the low prevalence of obesity was only seen in White men and women and African men. In contrast, English-Indian (prevalence ratio0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-0.93) and English-Caribbean (prevalence ratio0.82, 95% CI: 0.76-0.89) women were less centrally obese than their Dutch equivalents. The Dutch-Indian men were very similar to the English-Indian men. The contribution of health behaviour and socio-economic position to the observed differences were small.Conclusion:Contrary to the patterns in White groups, the Dutch ethnic minority women were more obese than their English equivalents. More work is needed to identify factors that may contribute to these observed differences. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited all rights reserved.

Objective: Population-based data on burden of hypertension are crucial for planning and implementation of prevention and control strategies but are often limited in developing countries in Africa. We assessed the prevalence of hypertension and related risk factors in a population cohort in rural Uganda initially established for HIV surveys. Methods: in a cross-sectional population-based survey of hypertension and related risk factors in 2009, trained field staff administered a questionnaire and obtained a single measurement of blood pressure, BMI, waist and hip circumference, waist/hip ratio (WHR) and random plasma glucose. All members of the population cohort aged 13 years and above were eligible for survey participation. Logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with high blood pressure, defined as SBP (mmHg) â‰1 140 or DBP â‰1 90. Results: of the 4801 men and 5372 women who were eligible, 2719 (56.6%) men and 3959 (73.7%) women participated in the survey. The prevalence of high blood pressure was 22.0%, age standardized to the local population. Factors that were independently associated with high blood pressure were increasing age, BMI and elevated glucose in both sexes, extremes of education level (none and secondary or above) among men, and being unmarried and waist circumference â‰1 80 cm among women. Levels of reported hypertension were very low, with nine out 10 people unaware of their condition. Conclusion: the use of established research infrastructure, for example, community HIV surveys, can help to generate the population-based data on the prevalence of hypertension and related risk factors needed to inform planning and implementation of effective prevention and control strategies in low-income countries. There is an urgent need to strengthen health services in responding effectively to the large burden of undetected hypertension. © 2011 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Background and purpose: to establish post-stroke case fatality rates within a community based incident stroke population in rural Tanzania. Methods: Incident stroke cases were identified by the Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project and followed-up over the next 3-6 years. In order to provide a more complete picture, verbal autopsy (VA) was also used to identify all stroke deaths occurring within the same community and time period, and a date of stroke was identified by interview with a relative or friend. Results: over 3 years, the Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project identified 130 cases of incident stroke, of which 31 (23.8%, 95% CI 16.5 to 31.2) died within 28 days and 78 (60.0%, 95% CI 51.6 to 68.4) within 3 years of incident stroke. Over the same time period, an additional 223 deaths from stroke were identified by VA; 64 (28.7%, 95% CI 20.9 to 36.5) had died within 28 days of stroke and 188 (84.3%, 95% CI 78.1 to 90.6) within 3 years. Conclusions: This is the first published study of post-stroke mortality in sub-Saharan Africa from an incident stroke population. The 28 day case fatality rate is at the lower end of rates reported for other low and middle income countries, even when including those identified by VA, although CIs were wide. Three year case fatality rates are notably higher than seen in most developed world studies. Improving post-stroke care may help to reduce stroke case fatality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Introduction: Diabetes is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and its global prevalence is growing rapidly. A simple and robust approach to estimate the prevalence of diabetes is essential for governments to set priorities on how to meet the challenges of the disease. The International Diabetes Federation has developed a methodology for generating country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence in adults (20-79 years). Methods: Using country-level data sources from peer-reviewed studies, national health statistics reports, commissioned studies on diabetes prevalence, and unpublished data obtained through personal communication, we use logistic regression to generate estimates of the prevalence of diabetes. An approach matching countries on ethnicity, geography, and income group is used to fill in gaps where original data sources are not available. The methodology also uses changes in urbanization and population to generate estimates and projections on the prevalence of diabetes in adults. Conclusion: Diabetes prevalence estimates are very sensitive to the data from which they are derived. The revised IDF methodology for estimating diabetes prevalence is a transparent, reproducible approach that will be updated annually. It takes data-driven approaches to filling in gaps where data are not available and where assumptions have to be made. It uses a qualification system to rank data sources so that only the highest quality data are used. © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Background: Whereas a large number of previous studies suggest an association between birth weight and later blood pressure, others do not. Controversy surrounds the relative importance of these associations, in particular in relation to more modifiable factors in later life. The aim of this study was to investigate the relative contributions of a range of factors from across life to variations in SBP and DBP in the Newcastle Thousand Families Study. METHODS AND Results: Detailed information was collected prospectively during childhood, including birth weight, duration breast fed and socioeconomic conditions. At age 49-51 years, 574 study members returned self-completion questionnaires and 412 underwent clinical examination, including measurement of DBP and SBP. These data were analysed using linear regression and path analyses. After adjustment for all other significant variables, decreased birth weight, standardized for sex and gestational age (P = 0.035), increased BMI (P < 0.001) and being male (P = 0.034) were independently associated with raised SBP and DBP. Social class at birth (P = 0.044) was also independently associated with DBP. BMI was found to be the most important predictor, with a small relative contribution of standardized birth weight. Conclusion: Adult blood pressure is influenced by numerous factors, acting both directly and indirectly during an individualÊ/s lifetime. Inverse associations of standardized birth weight, although statistically significant, were of relatively small importance, with the majority of variation being explained by more modifiable factors in adulthood, in particular adult BMI. © 2011 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

To compare blood pressure and the prevalence of hypertension in white Dutch and Dutch of Suriname-hindustani and Suriname-creole ethnic derivation with corresponding ethnic minority groups in England and to assess the quality of hypertension treatment in these groups. Retrospective; comparison of cross-sectional studies. Secondary analyses were performed on data from 3 population-based studies with 13,999 participants in total of European, African of South-Asian origin from England and the Netherlands. English South-Asian men and women had lower blood pressure and lower prevalence of hypertension than people of South-Asian origin in the Netherlands (Suriname-hindustani), except for systolic blood pressure in men of Indian extraction in England. There was no difference in systolic blood pressure between groups of African origin in the Netherlands and England. Diastolic blood pressure levels, however, were lower in English men and women of African origin than in people of African origin in the Netherlands (Suriname-creole). White Dutch had higher systolic blood pressure levels, but lower diastolic blood pressure levels than white English men and women. There was no difference in the prevalence of hypertension between the white groups. In persons being treated for hypertension, a substantially lower percentage of the Suriname-hindustani and Suriname-creole persons in the Netherlands had well controlled blood pressure (lower than 140/90 mmHg) than their English equivalents, with the exception of English of Indian extraction. There were marked differences in blood pressure and prevalence of hypertension between comparable ethnic groups in England and the Netherlands. The relatively poor blood pressure control in Dutch ethnic minority groups partly explained the relatively high blood pressure levels in these groups.

Background: We compare patterns of blood pressure (BP) and prevalence of hypertension between white-Dutch and their South-Asian and African minority groups with their corresponding white-English and their South-Asian and African ethnic minority groups; and the contribution of physical activity, body sizes, and socioeconomic position (SEP); and the quality of BP treatment that may underlie differences in mean BP. Methods: Secondary analyses of population-based studies of 13,999 participants from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Results: Compared with Dutch South-Asians, all English South-Asian men and women had lower BP and prevalence of hypertension except for systolic BP in English-Indian men. Among Africans, the systolic BP did not differ, but the diastolic BP levels were lower in English-Caribbean and English-(sub-Sahara) African men and women than in their Dutch-African counterparts. English-Caribbeans had a lower prevalence of hypertension than Dutch-Africans. Compared with white-Dutch, white-English men and women had higher systolic BP levels, but lower diastolic BP levels. There were no differences in the prevalence of hypertension between the white groups. Most differences remained unchanged after adjustment for SEP, lifestyle, and body sizes in all ethnic groups. BP control rates were substantially lower among Dutch-African and Dutch South-Asian hypertensives than among their English counterparts (except Indians). Conclusions We found marked variations in BP and hypertension prevalence between comparable ethnic groups in England and the Netherlands. Poor BP control among Dutch South-Asians and Africans contributed to their disadvantage of the relatively high BP levels. © 2010 American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd.

Background: Evidence suggests that Dutch people smoke substantially more than their British counterparts. These differences have been suggested to relate, in part, to the health-related policy differences between the two countries. It is unclear whether these differences affect smoking among ethnic minority groups in similar ways. We assessed whether the lower smoking prevalence in the U.K. general population compared with the Netherlands is also observed in ethnic minority groups (i.e. Dutch vs. English South Asians and Dutchvs. English-Africans). Methods: We used similar surveys from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands to explore these questions. The response rate ranges from 60% in the Health Survey for England and the SUNSET study to 67.5% in Newcastle Heart Project (n = 21,429). Results: After adjustment for other factors, compared with White-Dutch, the prevalence ratio (PR) of current smoking was lower in White-English men (PR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.49-0.67) and women (PR = 0.56, 0.49-0.65). Among African groups, compared with Dutch-African, the prevalence of current smoking was lower in EnglishAfrican Caribbean men (PR = 0.48, 0.31-0.75) and women (PR = 0.47, 0.39-0.69) and Sub-Saharan African men (PR = 0.53, 0.29-0.99) and women (PR = 0.37, 0.14-0.99). Among South Asian groups, compared with Dutch South Asian, the prevalence of smoking was lower in EnglishIndian men (PR = 0.67, 0.51-0.89) and women (PR = 0.16, 0.07-0.37), Pakistani men (PR = 0.62, 0.46-0.82) and women (PR = 0.13, 0.05-0.33), and Bangladeshi men (PR = 0.77, 0.59-0.99) and women (PR = 0.11, 0.03-0.45). Ever-smoking rates were lower and smoking cessation rates were higher in the English ethnic groups than in the Dutch ethnic groups except for smoking cessation among the South Asian women. Conclusion: Similar to the White group, the prevalence of smoking was lower in South Asian and African men and women in England than their corresponding Dutch counterparts. These differences suggest that, among other factors, antismoking policies might have a similar influence on both ethnic majority and minority groups and illustrate the potential importance of national context on public health policy on ethnic minority groups' smoking behavior. © the Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved.

The steadily growing epidemic of diabetes mellitus poses a threat for global tuberculosis (TB) control. Previous studies have identified an important association between diabetes mellitus and TB. However, these studies have limitations: very few were carried out in low-income countries, with none in Africa, raising uncertainty about the strength of the diabetes mellitus-TB association in these settings, and many critical questions remain unanswered. An expert meeting was held in November 2009 to discuss where there was sufficient evidence to make firm recommendations about joint management of both diseases, to address research gaps and to develop a research agenda. Ten key research questions were identified, of which 4 were selected as high priority: (i) whether, when and how to screen for TB in patients with diabetes mellitus and vice versa; (ii) the impact of diabetes mellitus and non-diabetes mellitus hyperglycaemia on TB treatment outcomes and deaths, and the development of strategies to improve outcomes; (iii) implementation and evaluation of the tuberculosis 'DOTS' model for diabetes mellitus management; and (iv) the development and evaluation of better point-of-care diagnostic and monitoring tests, including measurements of blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin a 1c (HbA1c) for patients with diabetes mellitus. Implementation of this research agenda will benefit the control of both diseases. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

BACKGROUND: Obesity remains a major public health problem, associated with a cluster of metabolic abnormalities. However, individuals exist who are very obese but have normal metabolic parameters. The aim of this study was to determine to what extent differences in metabolic health in very obese women are explained by differences in body fat distribution, insulin resistance and level of physical activity. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional pilot study of 39 obese women (age: 28-64 yrs, BMI: 31-67 kg/m2) recruited from community settings. Women were defined as 'metabolically normal' on the basis of blood glucose, lipids and blood pressure. Magnetic Resonance Imaging was used to determine body fat distribution. Detailed lifestyle and metabolic profiles of participants were obtained. RESULTS: Women with a healthy metabolic profile had lower intra-abdominal fat volume (geometric mean 4.78 l [95% CIs 3.99-5.73] vs 6.96 l [5.82-8.32]) and less insulin resistance (HOMA 3.41 [2.62-4.44] vs 6.67 [5.02-8.86]) than those with an abnormality. The groups did not differ in abdominal subcutaneous fat volume (19.6 l [16.9-22.7] vs 20.6 [17.6-23.9]). A higher proportion of those with a healthy compared to a less healthy metabolic profile met current physical activity guidelines (70% [95% CIs 55.8-84.2] vs 25% [11.6-38.4]). Intra-abdominal fat, insulin resistance and physical activity make independent contributions to metabolic status in very obese women, but explain only around a third of the variance. CONCLUSION: a sub-group of women exists who are metabolically normal despite being very obese. Differences in fat distribution, insulin resistance, and physical activity level are associated with metabolic differences in these women, but account only partially for these differences. Future work should focus on strategies to identify those obese individuals most at risk of the negative metabolic consequences of obesity and on identifying other factors that contribute to metabolic status in obese individuals.

Background: There is good evidence that diabetes is a risk factor for pulmonary tuberculosis. In England, the rates of both diabetes and tuberculosis vary markedly by ethnic group. Objective: to estimate the proportion of incident cases of pulmonary tuberculosis attributable to diabetes (population attributable fraction, PAF) for Asian, black and white men and women aged ≥15 years in England. Methods: an epidemiological model was constructed using data on the incidence of tuberculosis, the prevalence of diabetes, the population structure for 2005 and the age-specific relative risk of tuberculosis associated with diabetes from a large cohort study. Results: the estimated PAF of diabetes for pulmonary tuberculosis is highest for Asian men (19.6%, 95% CI 10.9% to 33.1%) and women (14.2%, 95% CI 7.1% to 26.5%). The PAF for all ages is similar in white and black men (6.9%, 95% CI 3.1% to 12.4% and 7.4%, 95% CI 4.6% to 12.9%, respectively) and women (8.2%, 95% CI 3.0% to 15.6% and 8.9%, 95% CI 5.3% to 15.6%, respectively). The similarity of these overall figures, despite a higher prevalence of diabetes in the black population, reflects a much younger mean age of pulmonary tuberculosis in the black population. Overall, of 3461 new cases of pulmonary tuberculosis in England in 2005, 384 (202-780) were estimated to be attributable to diabetes. Conclusion: Given the nature of the data available, considerable uncertainty surrounds these estimates. Nonetheless, they highlight the potential importance of diabetes as a risk factor for pulmonary tuberculosis, particularly in groups at high risk of both diseases. Further research to examine the implications of these findings for tuberculosis control is urgently needed.

This article aims to provide an updated summary of diabetes prevention efforts by reviewing relevant literature published between 2007 and 2009. These include results from the long-term follow-up of diabetes prevention trials and the roll-out of community-based interventions in "real world" settings. Some countries have begun to implement population-based strategies for chronic disease prevention, but investment in developing and evaluating population-level interventions remains inadequate. By focussing on the "small change" approach and involving a number of different agencies, it may be possible to shift the population distribution of risk factors for diabetes and cardiovascular disease in a favourable direction. The cost-effectiveness of primary prevention strategies for type 2 diabetes has not been universally demonstrated. Some of the uncertainties relating to screening for diabetes have now been resolved but longer-term data on hard cardiovascular outcomes are still needed. In summary, individual countries should aim to develop and evaluate cost-effective, setting-specific diabetes risk identification and prevention strategies based on available resources. These should be linked to initiatives aimed at reducing the burden of cardiovascular disease, and complemented with population-based strategies focusing on the control and reduction of behavioural and cardiovascular risk factors by targeting their key determinants. © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Country and global health statistics underestimate the number of excess deaths due to diabetes. The aim of the study was to provide a more accurate estimate of the number of deaths attributable to diabetes for the year 2010. A computerized disease model was used to obtain the estimates. The baseline input data included the population structure, estimates of diabetes prevalence, estimates of underlying mortality and estimates of the relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. The total number of excess deaths attributable to diabetes worldwide was estimated to be 3.96 million in the age group 20-79 years, 6.8% of global (all ages) mortality. Diabetes accounted for 6% of deaths in adults in the African Region, to 15.7% in the North American Region. Beyond 49 years of age diabetes constituted a higher proportion of deaths in females than in males in all regions, reaching over 25% in some regions and age groups. Thus, diabetes is a considerable cause of premature mortality, a situation that is likely to worsen, particularly in low and middle income countries as diabetes prevalence increases. Investments in primary and secondary prevention are urgently required to reduce this burden. © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Background. High levels of rural to urban migration are a feature of most African countries. Our aim was to investigate changes, and their determinants, in cardiovascular risk factors on rural to urban migration in Tanzania. Methods. Men and women (15 to 59 years) intending to migrate from Morogoro rural region to Dar es Salaam for at least 6 months were identified. Measurements were made at least one week but no more than one month prior to migration, and 1 to 3 monthly after migration. Outcome measures included body mass index, blood pressure, fasting lipids, and self reported physical activity and diet. Results. One hundred and three men, 106 women, mean age 29 years, were recruited and 132 (63.2%) followed to 12 months. All the figures presented here refer to the difference between baseline and 12 months in these 132 individuals. Vigorous physical activity declined (79.4% to 26.5% in men, 37.8% to 15.6% in women, p < 0.001), and weight increased (2.30 kg men, 2.35 kg women, p < 0.001). Intake of red meat increased, but so did the intake of fresh fruit and vegetables. HDL cholesterol increased in men and women (0.24, 0.25 mmoll -1 respectively, p < 0.001); and in men, not women, total cholesterol increased (0.42 mmoll-1, p = 0.01), and triglycerides fell (0.31 mmoll-1, p = 0.034). Blood pressure appeared to fall in both men and women. For example, in men systolic blood pressure fell by 5.4 mmHg, p = 0.007, and in women by 8.6 mmHg, p = 0.001. Conclusion. The lower level of physical activity and increasing weight will increase the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, changes in diet were mixed, and may have contributed to mixed changes in lipid profiles and a lack of rise in blood pressure. A better understanding of the changes occurring on rural to urban migration is needed to guide preventive measures. © 2010 Unwin et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Background: There are no methodologically rigorous studies of the incidence of stroke in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to provide reliable data on the incidence of stroke in rural and urban Tanzania. Methods: the Tanzania Stroke Incidence Project (TSIP) recorded stroke incidence in two well defined demographic surveillance sites (DSS) over a 3-year period from June, 2003. The Hai DSS (population 159 814) is rural and the Dar-es-Salaam DSS (population 56 517) is urban. Patients with stroke were identified by use of a system of community-based investigators and liaison with local hospital and medical centre staff. Patients who died from stroke before recruitment into the TSIP were identified via verbal autopsy, which was done on all those who died within the study areas. Findings: There were 636 strokes during the 3-year period (453 in Hai and 183 in Dar-es-Salaam). Overall crude yearly stroke incidence rates were 94·5 per 100 000 (95% CI 76·0-115·0) in Hai and 107·9 per 100 000 (88·1-129·8) in Dar-es-Salaam. When age-standardised to the WHO world population, yearly stroke incidence rates were 108·6 per 100 000 (95% CI 89·0-130·9) in Hai and 315·9 per 100 000 (281·6-352·3) in Dar-es-Salaam. Interpretation: Age-standardised stroke incidence rates in Hai were similar to those seen in developed countries. However, age-standardised incidence rates in Dar-es-Salaam were higher than seen in most studies in developed countries; this could be because of a difference in the prevalence of risk factors and emphasises the importance of health screening at a community level. Health policy makers must continue to monitor the incidence of stroke in sub-Saharan Africa and should base future funding decisions on such data. Funding: the Wellcome Trust. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Africa faces a double burden of infectious and chronic diseases. While infectious diseases still account for at least 69% of deaths on the continent, age specific mortality rates from chronic diseases as a whole are actually higher in sub Saharan Africa than in virtually all other regions of the world, in both men and women. Over the next ten years the continent is projected to experience the largest increase in death rates from cardiovascular disease, cancer, respiratory disease and diabetes. African health systems are weak and national investments in healthcare training and service delivery continue to prioritise infectious and parasitic diseases. There is a strong consensus that Africa faces significant challenges in chronic disease research, practice and policy. This editorial reviews eight original papers submitted to a Globalization and Health special issue themed: "Africa's chronic disease burden: local and global perspectives". The papers offer new empirical evidence and comprehensive reviews on diabetes in Tanzania, sickle cell disease in Nigeria, chronic mental illness in rural Ghana, HIV/AIDS care-giving among children in Kenya and chronic disease interventions in Ghana and Cameroon. Regional and international reviews are offered on cardiovascular risk in Africa, comorbidity between infectious and chronic diseases and cardiovascular disease, diabetes and established risk factors among populations of sub-Saharan African descent in Europe. We discuss insights from these papers within the contexts of medical, psychological, community and policy dimensions of chronic disease. There is an urgent need for primary and secondary interventions and for African health policymakers and governments to prioritise the development and implementation of chronic disease policies. Two gaps need critical attention. The first gap concerns the need for multidisciplinary models of research to properly inform the design of interventions. The second gap concerns understanding the processes and political economies of policy making in sub Saharan Africa. The economic impact of chronic diseases for families, health systems and governments and the relationships between national policy making and international economic and political pressures have a huge impact on the risk of chronic diseases and the ability of countries to respond to them.

Background: Africa is facing a rapidly growing chronic non-communicable disease burden whilst at the same time experiencing continual high rates of infectious disease. It is well known that some infections increase the risk of certain chronic diseases and the converse. With an increasing dual burden of disease in Sub Saharan Africa the associations between diseases and our understanding of them will become of increased public health importance.Aims: in this review we explore the relationships reported between tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus, human immunodeficiency virus, its treatment and metabolic risk. We aimed to address the important issues surrounding these associations within a Sub Saharan African setting and to describe the impact of globalization upon them.Findings: Diabetes has been associated with a 3-fold incident risk of tuberculosis and it is hypothesised that tuberculosis may also increase the risk of developing diabetes. During co-morbid presentation of tuberculosis and diabetes both tuberculosis and diabetes outcomes are reported to worsen. Antiretroviral therapy for HIV has been associated with an increased risk of developing metabolic syndrome and HIV has been linked with an increased risk of developing both diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Globalization is clearly related to an increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. It may be exerting other negative and positive impacts upon infectious and chronic non-communicable disease associations but at present reporting upon these is sparse.Conclusion: the impact of these co-morbidities in Sub Saharan Africa is likely to be large. An increasing prevalence of diabetes may hinder efforts at tuberculosis control, increasing the number of susceptible individuals in populations where tuberculosis is endemic, and making successful treatment harder. Roll out of anti-retroviral treatment coverage within Sub Saharan Africa is an essential response to the HIV epidemic however it is likely to lead to a growing number of individuals suffering adverse metabolic consequences. One of the impacts of globalization is to create environments that increase both diabetes and cardiovascular risk but further work is needed to elucidate other potential impacts. Research is also needed to develop effective approaches to reducing the frequency and health impact of the co-morbidities described here. © 2009 Young et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Background: the objective was to examine how the indigenous naming, indigenous self-diagnosis and management of diabetes evolved with awareness in order to develop a socially oriented theoretical model for its care. Methods: the data was collected through a one-year extended participant observation in Bafut, a rural health district of Cameroon. The sample consisted of 72 participants in a rural health district of Cameroon (men and women) with type 2 diabetes. We used participant observation to collect data through focus group discussions, in depth interviews and fieldwork conversations. The method of analysis entailed a thick description, thematic analysis entailing constant comparison within and across FGD and across individual participants and content analysis. Results: the core concepts identified were the evolution of names for diabetes and the indigenous diagnostic and self-management procedures. Participants fell into one of two naming typologies: (a) Naming excluding any signs and symptoms of diabetes; (b) naming including signs and symptoms of diabetes. Participants fell into two typologies of diagnostic procedures: (a) those that use indigenous diagnostic procedures for monitoring and controlling diabetes outcomes and b) those that had initially used it only for diagnosis and continued to use them for self management. These typologies varied according to how participants' awareness evolved and the impact on self-diagnosis and management. Conclusion: the evolution of names for diabetes was an important factor that influenced the subsequent self-diagnosis and management of diabetes in both traditional and modern biomedical settings. © 2009 Awah et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Previous studies have suggested an association between being breastfed and later cholesterol levels. We investigated whether duration of total and exclusive breastfeeding were related to circulating total, HDL and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride measures at age 50, and whether such associations differ between men and women. Members of the Newcastle thousand families study were followed from birth in 1947. Men (n = 179) and 226 women (n = 226) with blood cholesterol and triglyceride measures at age 50 and with prospectively recorded duration of both total and exclusive breastfeeding were included. Neither total duration nor duration of exclusive breastfeeding were associated with the outcome measures when analysing both sexes together. However, in sex specific analyses significant associations between duration of exclusive breastfeeding and both total and LDL cholesterol (adjusted regression coefficient (r) per 30 days = 0.12 mmol/l (95% CI 0.04-0.20) P = 0.004 for total cholesterol and adjusted r per 30 days = 0.10 mmol/l (95% CI 0.02-0.18) P = 0.016 for LDL cholesterol) were seen for women with no significant associations observed in men. Significant interactions between duration of exclusive breastfeeding and sex were seen for total and LDL cholesterol (P = 0.02 and P = 0.03, respectively) with a near-significant interaction for HDL cholesterol (P = 0.06). In all cases, greater increases in cholesterol with increasing duration of exclusive breastfeeding were seen for women than for men. In conclusion, the association between breastfeeding and adult cholesterol levels differs between men and women and in women remains a significant association even after adjustment for potential confounders. However, our findings may not reflect the situation in younger generations. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that women who grow up in energetically stressed environments have later menarche and lower total estradiol levels during their reproductive years than do women who grow up in less energetically stressed environments. We assessed total estradiol in a serum sample taken 9-11 days after the start of the menstrual cycle in 26 women who grew up in Pakistan and migrated to the UK as adults, in 28 British-born British Pakistani women, and in 25 British-born women of European origin. Women who grew up in Pakistan reported a later menarche than women who grew up in the UK. However, we found no significant differences between the groups in total estradiol level. Thus our findings do not support the hypothesis that estradiol levels are partially determined during early life. However, having considered our findings in relation to those of other studies, we conclude that new methodological approaches are needed to provide a more definitive test of the hypothesis. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Aims: to implement a protocol-driven primary nurse-led care for type 2 diabetes in rural and urban Cameroon. Methods: We set-up three primary healthcare clinics in Yaounde (Capital city) and two in the Bafut rural health district. Participants were 225 (17% rural) patients with known or newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, not requiring insulin, referred either from a baseline survey (38 patients, 17%), or secondarily attracted to the clinics. Protocol-driven glucose and blood pressure control were delivered by trained nurses. The main outcomes were trajectories of fasting capillary glucose and blood pressure indices, and differences in the mean levels between baseline and final visits. Results: the total duration of follow-up was 1110 patient-months. During follow-up, there was a significant downward trend in fasting capillary glucose overall (p < 0.001) and in most subgroups of participants. Between baseline and final visits, mean fasting capillary glucose dropped by 1.6 mmol/L (95% CI: 0.8-2.3; p ≤ 0.001). Among those with hypertension, blood pressure also decreased significantly for systolic and marginally for diastolic blood pressure. No major significant change was noticed for body weight. Conclusions: Nurses may be potential alternatives to improve access to diabetes care in settings where physicians are not available. © 2009 Primary Care Diabetes Europe.

Background. The 2007 Wanless report highlights the ever increasing problem of obesity and the consequent health problems. Obesity is a significant cause of diabetes. An increasing evidence base suggests that in terms of reducing diabetes and CVD risk, it is better to be "fit and fat" than unfit and of normal weight. There has been very little previous research into the understandings that men in the general population hold about the issues of weight, exercise and health; we therefore undertook this study in order to inform the process of health promotion and diabetes prevention in this group. Methods. A qualitative study in North East England General Practice using a purposive sample of men aged 25 and 45 years (selection process designed to include 'normal', 'overweight' and 'obese' men). One to one audio-recorded semi structured interviews focused on: overweight and obesity, diet, physical activity and diabetes. Transcripts were initially analysed using framework analysis. Emerging themes interlinked. Results. The men in this study (n = 17) understand the word obesity differently from the clinical definition; "obesity" was used as a description of those with fat in a central distribution, and understandings of the term commonly take into account fitness as well as weight. Men in their late 30s and early 40s described becoming more aware of health issues. Knowledge of what constitutes a 'healthy lifestyle' was generally good, but men described difficulty acting upon this knowledge for various reasons e.g. increasing responsibilities at home and at work. Knowledge of diabetes and the link between obesity and diabetes was poor. Conclusion. Men in this study had a complex understanding of the interlinked importance of weight and fitness in relation to health. Obesity is understood as a description of people with centrally distributed fat, in association with low fitness levels. There is a need to increase understanding of the causes and consequences of diabetes. Discussion of increased health awareness by men round the age of 40 may indicate a window of opportunity to intervene at this time. © 2008 Weaver et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Objective: Clinical similarities between the metabolic syndrome and Cushing's syndrome have led to speculation of genetic association between them. The Bcl1 polymorphism in intron 2 of the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene has been associated with insulin resistance/hyperinsulinaemia. Our objective was to test the association of rs2918419, a T→C single nucleotide change in intron 2 downstream of the Bcl1 locus, with components of the metabolic syndrome and its interaction with the Bcl1 locus. Design and methods: We genotyped a subsample of 325 White subjects (116 men) in the Newcastle Heart Project (NHP), a population-based study in north-east England. Gender-specific statistical analysis by stepwise backward multiple regression was performed to test the association of allele status with adiposity, glucose and insulin responses to oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), fasting lipids and blood pressure. Results: Minor allele frequency was 0.14 for rs2918419 and 0.39 for the Bcl1 polymorphism. rs2918419 was associated with higher fasting insulin concentration and insulin resistance in men but not in women. Contrary to earlier studies, the Bcl1 polymorphism on its own was not associated with insulin resistance/hyperinsulinaemia in either gender. Subjects carrying variant rs2918419 alleles also had variant alleles at the Bcl1 locus. In men, but not women, Bcl1 variant alleles on a background of rs2918419 wild-type alleles associated with lower fasting insulin compared to wild-type alleles at both loci or variant alleles at both loci. Conclusions: We report that rs2918419 was linked with hyperinsulinaemia and insulin resistance in men. Carrying Bcl1 variant alleles without rs2918419 was not associated with hyperinsulinaemia/ insulin resistance. Previous reports of the association of Bcl1 polymorphism with obesity-related characteristics may reflect linkage disequilibrium with rs2918419. © 2008 the Authors.

Background. The objective of the study was to explore the cultural aspect of compliance, its underlying principles and how these cultural aspects can be used to improve patient centred care for diabetes in Cameroon. Methods. We used participant observation to collect data from a rural and an urban health district of Cameroon from June 2001 to June 2003. Patients were studied in their natural settings through daily interactions with them. The analysis was inductive and a continuous process from the early stages of fieldwork. Results. The ethnography revealed a lack of basic knowledge about diabetes and diabetes risk factors amongst people with diabetes. The issue of compliance was identified as one of the main themes in the process of treating diabetes. Compliance emerged as part of the discourse of healthcare providers in clinics and filtered into the daily discourses of people with diabetes. The clinical encounters offered treatment packages that were socially inappropriate therefore rejected or modified for most of the time by people with diabetes. Compliance to biomedical therapy suffered a setback for four main reasons: dealing with competing regimes of treatment; coming to terms with biomedical treatment of diabetes; the cost of biomedical therapy; and the impact of AIDS on accepting weight loss as a lifestyle measure in prescription packages. People with diabetes had fears about and negative opinions of accepting certain prescriptions that they thought could interfere with their accustomed social image especially that which had to do with bridging their relationship with ancestors and losing weight in the era of HIV/AIDS. Conclusion. The cultural pressures on patients are responsible for patients' partial acceptance of and adherence to prescriptions. Understanding the self-image of patients and their background cultures are vital ingredients to improve diabetes care in low-income countries of Sub-Sahara Africa like Cameroon. © 2008 Awah et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

OBJECTIVE - There is a lack of continuous longitudinal population-based data on lower extremity amputation (LEA) in the U.K. We present here accurate data on trends in diabetes-related (DR) LEAs and non-DRLEAs in the South Tees area over a continuous 5-year period. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - all cases of LEA from 1 July 1995 to 30 June 2000 within the area were identified. Estimated ascertainment using capture-recapture analysis approached 100% for LEAs in the area. Data were collected longitudinally using the standard method of the Global Lower Extremity Amputation Study protocol. RESULTS - over 5 years there were 454 LEAs (66.3% men) in the South Tees area, of which 223 were diabetes related (49.1%). Among individuals with diabetes, LEA rates went from 564.3 in the first year to 176.0 of 100,000 persons with diabetes in the fifth year. Over the same period, non-DRLEAs increased from 12.3 to 22.8 of 100,000 persons without diabetes. The relative risk of a person with diabetes undergoing an LEA went from being 46 times that of a person without diabetes to 7.7 at the end of the 5 years. The biggest improvement in LEA incidence was seen in the reduction of repeat major DRLEAs. CONCLUSIONS - Our data show that in the South Tees area at a time when major non-DRLEA rates increased, major DRLEA rates have fallen. These diverging trends mark a significant improvement in care for patients with diabetic foot disease as a result of better organized diabetes care. © 2008 by the American Diabetes Association.

There is a high prevalence of cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes in people of South Asian origin living in affluent western countries. We do not know whether or how risk factors for these diseases change in subsequent generations born in the west. Findings that birth-weight is inversely associated with abdominal obesity and risk of cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes in later life suggest that those born in the west may have lower levels of risk than migrants. We assessed 30 migrants from Pakistan to the UK, 30 British-born British Pakistani women, and 25 British-born women of European origin. British-born British Pakistani women were taller (P = 0.05), had a lower waist to hip ratio (P = 0.04), lower mean fasting glucose levels (P = 0.03), lower mean triglyceride levels (P = 0.03), and higher mean HDL levels (P < 0.001) than migrant British Pakistani women. Levels of fasting insulin, HOMA-IR, and blood pressure were not significantly different in the two British Pakistani groups. Thus, we found healthier levels of several cardiovascular and Type 2 diabetes risk factors in British-born British Pakistani women than in migrant British Pakistani women. These findings might be related to the effects of early environment or to other factors, such as differences in health behaviors. British-born British Pakistani women also differed from British-born European women, having a more adverse body composition, but healthier levels of HDL cholesterol and blood pressure. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Objectives: to compare the prevalence, agreement and phenotypic characteristics in three ethnic groups of the new International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition of metabolic syndrome (MS) to the World Health Organization (WHO) and national cholesterol education program (NCEP) definitions. Setting: Newcastle upon Tyne, England. Design: Cross-sectional surveys. Participants: Chinese (171 men and 185 women), European (257 men and 301 women), and South Asian (264 men and 295 women) adults, ages 25 to 64 years. Main Outcome Measures: Anthropometric indices: blood pressure, fasting lipids, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, glucose intolerance, insulin resistance. Results: IDF-defined MS was highly prevalent in all groups, ranging from 12.3% (95% CIs 7.4-17.2) in Chinese men to 45.5% (39.5-51.5) in South Asian men. In women, of all ethnic groups, more than 80% of those with WHO- or NCEP-defined MS also had IDF-defined MS. In men, however, agreement was less good. For example, in each ethnic group, more than a third of those with WHO-defined MS did not have IDF-defined MS. Within each ethnic group, the biological characteristics of those with MS by any definition were largely the same. However, differences existed between ethnic groups. For example, in those with IDF-defined MS, both South Asian men and women had significantly (P

Objectives: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global public health problem. In the past, a relationship between TB and diabetes mellitus (DM) was recognized, and its importance was acknowledged through joint treatment clinics. However, this is rarely highlighted in current research or control priorities. This paper aims to evaluate the evidence for an association between these two diseases. Methods: a Medline literature search was undertaken, supplemented by checking references and contacting experts. We critically appraised studies that quantified the association between TB and DM, and were published after 1995. We assessed study quality according to criteria such as sample size, method of selection of cases and controls, losses to follow-up, quality and method of control of confounding, and summarized the results narratively and in tabular form. Results: all studies identified statistically significant and clinically important associations, with the increase in risk or odds of TB varying between 1.5- and 7.8-fold for those with DM. Risk was highest at younger ages. Most studies had not measured and controlled adequately for potential major confounders. Discussion: There is strong evidence for an association between TB and DM, which has potential public health implications. Further well-designed studies are needed to assess the magnitude precisely. © SAGE Publications 2007.

Background. Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and in these countries diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly. Diabetes increases the risk of TB. Our aim was to assess the potential impact of diabetes as a risk factor for incident pulmonary tuberculosis, using India as an example. Methods. We constructed an epidemiological model using data on tuberculosis incidence, diabetes prevalence, population structure, and relative risk of tuberculosis associated with diabetes. We evaluated the contribution made by diabetes to both tuberculosis incidence, and to the difference between tuberculosis incidence in urban and rural areas. Results. In India in 2000 there were an estimated 20.7 million adults with diabetes, and 900,000 incident adult cases of pulmonary tuberculosis. Our calculations suggest that diabetes accounts for 14.8% (uncertainty range 7.1% to 23.8%) of pulmonary tuberculosis and 20.2% (8.3% to 41.9%) of smear-positive (i.e. infectious) tuberculosis. We estimate that the increased diabetes prevalence in urban areas is associated with a 15.2% greater smear-positive tuberculosis incidence in urban than rural areas - over a fifth of the estimated total difference. Conclusion. Diabetes makes a substantial contribution to the burden of incident tuberculosis in India, and the association is particularly strong for the infectious form of tuberculosis. The current diabetes epidemic may lead to a resurgence of tuberculosis in endemic regions, especially in urban areas. This potentially carries a risk of global spread with serious implications for tuberculosis control and the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. © 2007 Stevenson et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

The purpose of this report was to compare lower extremity amputation rates between areas of the United States and areas outside the United States using a standard format. Twelve U.S. counties similar in size, income, and land use were selected. The rate of amputation for each county was developed following the method and definitions described by the Global Lower Extremity Amputation Study (GLEAS). The data were compared to rates of amputation for non-U.S. areas that participated in the GLEAS. The U.S. counties generally had higher amputation rates than the non-U.S. areas in this standardized comparison. The United States suffers a high number of lower extremity amputations in comparison to other developed countries. The effectiveness of prevention strategies in the United States needs to be reevaluated and new strategies explored. © Annals of Vascular Surgery Inc.

Background: As the relation between socioeconomic status (SES) and obesity may depend on the stage of development of a country, this relation is assessed in adults from urban Cameroon. Methods: a sample comprising 1530 women and 1301 men aged 25 years and above, from 1897 households in the Biyem-Assi health area in the capital of Cameroon, Yaoundé, were interviewed about their household amenities, occupation, and education. Weight, height, and waist circumference were measured and subjects were classified as obese if their BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 or overweight if BMI was between 25.0 and 29.9 kg/m2. Abdominal obesity was defined by a waist circumference ≥80 cm in women and ≥94 cm in men. Results: of the sample studied 33% of women and 30% of men were overweight (P < 0.08), whereas 22% of women and 7% of men were obese (P < 0.001). Abdominal obesity was present in 67% of women and 18% of men (P < 0.001). After adjusting for age, leisure time physical activity, alcohol consumption, and tobacco smoking, the prevalence of overweight + obesity, obesity, and abdominal obesity increased with quartiles of household amenities in both genders and with occupational level in men. Conclusion: SES is positively associated with adiposity in urban Cameroon after adjusting for confounding factors. © the Author 2005; all rights reserved.

The glucocorticoid receptor (GR) may be a common link between human obesity/metabolic syndrome and Cushing's syndrome. The effects of glucocorticoids are mediated through the functional isoform, GRα. An alternative isoform, GRβ, behaves as a dominant negative inhibitor of GRα and has been implicated as a contributing factor to glucocorticoid resistance. A naturally occurring ATTTA to GTTTA single nucleotide polymorphism (A3669G) located in the 3′ end of exon 9β results in increased stability of GRβ mRNA and increased GRβ protein expression. Enhanced GRβ expression may result in greater inhibition of GRα transcriptional activity, resulting in glucocorticoid insensitivity. To test the hypothesis that the 3669G allele would result in a phenotype less likely to express features of glucocorticoid excess, we studied the prevalence of this polymorphism and its relationship with obesity and features of the metabolic syndrome in 322 Europid and 262 South-Asian subjects in northeast England. We report evidence that 3669G allele is associated with reduced central obesity in Europid women and a more favorable lipid profile in Europid men. These data suggest that the 3669G allele may attenuate the undesirable effects of glucocorticoids on fat distribution and lipid metabolism, although its penetrance may vary in different ethnic groups. Copyright © 2006 NAASO.

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD) account for almost 60% of global mortality, and 80% of deaths from NCD occur in low- and middle-income countries. One quarter of these deaths - almost 9 million in 2005 - are in men and women aged

Objective: the metabolic syndrome is more prevalent in South Asians in Britain than in the general population. Furthering our understanding of the underlying mechanisms is important because of the increased risk of cardiovascular disease associated with the metabolic syndrome. As it has been proposed that increased activity of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis might underlie the metabolic syndrome, we hypothesized that plasma cortisol levels would be higher in South Asians and that increased cortisol levels would be associated with cardiovascular risk factors comprising the metabolic syndrome. The aim of the study was to examine ethnic differences in cortisol levels and to compare the relationships between cortisol levels and cardiovascular risk factors in men from different ethnic groups. Design: Cross-sectional population-based study, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. (Newcastle Heart project). Participants: One hundred men, 40-67 years old, of European and South Asian (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi) ancestry, with and without cardiovascular risk factors of the metabolic syndrome. Measurements: Measurement of plasma cortisol and corticosteroid binding globulin in stored sera. Results: After adjustment for age and the presence of cardiovascular risk factors, mean cortisol was 27% (95% CI, 10%, 40%) lower in South Asians compared to Europeans. Cortisol levels were higher in all men with cardiovascular risk factors than those without. Conclusions: Cortisol levels are lower in South Asian than in European men resident in the UK. Despite lower cortisol levels in South Asians, the relations between cortisol and cardiovascular risk factors remain strong. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Background: Suboptimal nutrition during fetal life and infancy is suggested to increase insulin resistance in adulthood. This study investigated the proportion of variance in insulin secretion and resistance accounted for by factors operating at different stages of life using a cohort of all 1142 births in the city of Newcastle, UK in May and June 1947. Methods: Detailed information was collected prospectively during childhood, including birth weight, growth and socio-economic circumstances. At age 50, 412 study members attended for clinical examination. Fasting and 30-min plasma insulin and glucose levels were determined and HOMA-IR and insulin secretion derived. Results: Birth weight was not a significant predictor of HOMA-IR after adjustment for percent body-fat and waist-hip ratio. Duration of breastfeeding was significantly negatively associated with HOMA-IR in men. For both genders, fetal life explained directly little variation in either HOMA-IR or insulin secretion (0.1-5.6%). Compared to early life, adult lifestyle and body composition directly explained larger proportions of the variances for insulin secretion and HOMA-IR for men (11 and 22% respectively) and women (5.9 and 34%). Conclusions: Insulin secretion is largely unexplained by these data. For insulin resistance, the evidence suggests a limited impact of early life and a larger impact of adult factors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Objective: Not all overweight and obese individuals appear to be at equal risk of developing metabolic abnormalities. We sought to examine the effect of factors from different stages of life on risk of metabolic abnormalities at age 50 years in overweight and obese adults. Design and subjects: Longitudinal study of all persons born in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK in May and June 1947 and followed to age 50 years when a clinical examination took place and a detailed questionnaire on health and lifestyle was completed. Participants in this study (n = 223) were those defined as being overweight or obese with a body mass index (BMI) greater than or equal to 25 at age 50 years. Subjects were defined as 'metabolically normal' if they had normal lipids, glucose and blood pressure. Results: Lower BMI was the strongest predictor of remaining metabolically normal in both men and women. After adjusting for BMI, lower levels of cigarette smoking and higher levels of physical activity were independently associated with being metabolically normal in men. No other factors were independently associated with being metabolically normal in women. A stronger inverse relationship between BMI and metabolic status was found in men (Odds ratio (OR) per unit increase in BMI = 0.65, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) 0.52-0.81) than in women (OR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.99). No association was seen for factors operating in fetal, infant and childhood life. Conclusions: Adult factors made a greater contribution to remaining metabolically normal than birth or childhood factors in this sample of overweight and obese adults. A lower adult BMI appeared to reduce the risk in men and women and lower cigarette smoking and higher level of physical activity also independently reduced the risk in men. Public health policy to reduce the burden of morbidity associated with obesity should continue to encourage weight loss, physical activity and smoking cessation. © 2006 Nature Publishing Group all rights reserved.

Representatives from five international organizations (International Society of Nephrology, World Heart Federation, International Diabetes Federation, International Atherosclerosis Federation, and International Society of Hypertension) participated in a strategic planning workshop in December 2005 in Bellagio, Italy sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation. There were equal representatives from developed and developing countries. Global perspectives on diabetes and cardiovascular and renal diseases were presented, with special emphasis on China, India, Latin America, and Africa. The rationale and effectiveness of preventive measures were discussed. It was apparent that measures for primary prevention and early intervention for all the chronic vascular diseases are similar. The five organizations agreed that an integrated global approach to chronic vascular diseases is needed. They resolved to collaborate and work towards an integrated approach to chronic vascular diseases with the establishment of a 5-year plan for the prevention and treatment of chronic vascular diseases, including public advocacy, advising international and national agencies, and improving education and the practice of established approaches. © 2006 International Society of Nephrology.

Aim: to evaluate the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Methods: Participants with IGT (n = 78), diagnosed on two consecutive oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs), were randomly assigned to a 2-year lifestyle intervention or to a control group. Main outcome measures were changes from baseline in: nutrient intake; physical activity; anthropometry, glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity. Measurements were repeated at 6, 12 and 24 months follow-up. Results: After 24 months follow-up, there was a significant fall in total fat consumption (difference in change between groups (Δ intervention - Δ control) = -17.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) -33.6 to -2.1 g/day) as a result of the intervention. Body mass was significantly lower in the intervention group compared with controls after 6 months (-1.6, 95% CI -2.9 to -0.4 kg) and 24 months (-3.3, 95% CI -5.7 to -0.89 kg). Whole body insulin sensitivity, assessed by the short insulin tolerance test (ITT), improved after 12 months in the intervention group (0.52, 95% CI 0.15-0.89%/min). Conclusions: These findings complement the findings of the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study and the American Diabetes Prevention Study, both of which tested intensive interventions, by showing that pragmatic lifestyle interventions result in improvements in obesity and whole body insulin sensitivity in individuals with IGT, without change in other cardiovascular risk factors. © 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

In women, raised insulin levels are associated with low sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and high androgen levels, which are in turn linked to infertility. Since insulin resistance and hyperinsulinemia are major health problems for South Asians living in Western countries, we predicted that British Pakistani women would have low SHBG and raised androgen levels compared to European women. Given low birth weights in Pakistan, and known links between low birth weight and insulin resistance in later life, we also predicted that immigrant women born in Pakistan would have lower levels of SHBG and higher levels of androgens than British-born British Pakistani women. We assessed SHBG, testosterone, and the free androgen index (FAI) from a single serum sample taken on days 9-11 of the menstrual cycle from 20-40-year-old women living in the UK: 30 immigrants from Pakistan, 30 British-born British Pakistani women, and 25 British-born women of European origin. Age-adjusted analyses showed no significant differences in SHBG, testosterone, or FAI between British-born Pakistani and European-origin women. However, immigrant British Pakistani women had a significantly higher FAI than British-born British Pakistani women. Adjustment for body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and smoking status did not affect these results, but further adjustment for height, a marker of early environment, reduced the P-value for the difference in FAI between immigrant and British-born British Pakistani women to below significance. It is possible that the poorer early environment of immigrant British Pakistani women was at least partially responsible for their relatively high levels of free androgens. © 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Objectives: UK prevalence studies have demonstrated prevalence rates for Parkinson's disease (PD) of 108 to 164 cases per 100,000. We aimed to calculate the prevalence of PD in an area of the North-East of England. Material and Methods: a case finding methodology was used to identify cases in North Tyneside with a population of 108,597 at the 2001 UK census. Results: 161 cases were identified giving crude and age-adjusted prevalence estimates of 148 cases (95% CI 124-174) and 139 cases (95% CI 116-162) per 100,000, respectively. The mean age was 74.1 years (range 44-96 years) with mean disease duration of 5.6 years. Conclusions: the prevalence of PD in North Tyneside is comparable with that of the rest of the UK. The prevalence of PD in the UK appears not to have changed greatly over the last 30 years. Copyright © 2006 S. Karger AG.

Background and Aim: There are virtually no epidemiological studies from India assessing the level of awareness of diabetes in a whole population. The aim of the present study was to assess the awareness of diabetes in an urban south Indian population in Chennai. Methods: the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES) is an ongoing population based study conducted using a systematic sampling method on a representative population (aged ≥ 20 years - 26001 individuals) of Chennai [formerly Madras], the largest city in Southern India. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain information related to demography, education and medical history. The questionnaire included five questions on diabetes awareness. Results: of the total 26,001 individuals, only 75.5% (19642/26001) of the whole population reported that they knew about a condition called diabetes or conversely nearly 25% of the Chennai population was unaware of a condition called diabetes. 60.2% (15656/26001) of all participants and 76.7% (1173/1529) of the self reported diabetic subjects knew that the prevalence of diabetes was increasing in India. Only 22.2% (5764/26001) of the whole population and 41.0% (627/1529) of the known diabetic subjects were aware that diabetes could be prevented. Knowledge of the role of obesity and physical inactivity in producing diabetes was very low, with only 11.9% (3083/26001) of study subjects reporting these as risk factors for diabetes. Only 19.0% (4951/26001) of whole population knew that diabetes could cause complications. Even among the self reported diabetic subjects, only 40.6% (621/1529) were aware that diabetes could produce some complications. Conclusion: Awareness and knowledge regarding diabetes is still grossly inadequate in India. Massive diabetes education programmes are urgently needed both in urban and rural India. © JAPI 2005.

Aim - to compare definitions for the metabolic syndrome given by the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Group for Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR), and the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP). Study population - 4,190 men and 4,950 women from seven cross-sectional European studies. Results - the age-standardised prevalence of the metabolic syndrome by different definitions was 16.5-24.7% in men and 15.2-20.9% in women aged 30-77 years, and was lowest by the EGIR criteria. Subjects who met all three definitions accounted for only 31% of the men and 34% of the women who had the metabolic syndrome by any of the three definitions, whereas 37% of these men and 39% of these women met only one of the three. Subjects with the NCEP definition only were more obese, hypertensive and dyslipidaemic than those identified by other definitions. Conclusions - the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome is high in non-diabetic Europeans. The agreement between the three definitions in the identification of subjects with the metabolic syndrome is poor and the phenotypes of those identified differ.

Suboptimal nutrition in early life is suggested to influence plasma glucose levels in later life. This study aimed to determine and quantify influences on plasma glucose levels at age 50. We studied 169 men and 219 women from the Newcastle Thousand Families cohort who attended for clinical examination, including measurements of fasting and 2 h post oral glucose load) at age 50. A lifecourse approach was used to estimate proportions of variance in plasma glucose levels accounted for by each stage of the lifecourse. Birth weight significantly predicted two-hour glucose levels in men (adjusted p=0.03). Body composition was a significant predictor of both glucose measures in both genders. Interactions existed between body composition and birth weight on fasting glucose in men and two-hour glucose in women and between gender and birth weight on both outcome measures. Fetal life factors directly explained little variation in either glucose measure (

Introduction: the fetal insulin hypothesis proposes that the inverse relationship between birthweight and risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease is partly as a result of inherited factors which influence the effect of insulin and insulin-like growth factors. It has been proposed that an inverse relationship between birthweight and parental risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease is evidence in support of this hypothesis. Patients and methods: Data from a prospective birth cohort study, followed up to age 50, was used to assess the relationship between birthweight and reported parental diabetes, hypertension, angina and stroke using logistic regression. Results: of the 832 cohort members traced at age 50, 574 (69%) returned questionnaires that included questions on parental illness. Complete data was available for 541 (94%) of these on maternal illness and for 531 (92%) on paternal illness. Birthweight, standardized for sex and gestational age and adjusted for social class at birth, was inversely associated with maternal stroke (odds ratio = 0.75, 95% confidence intervals 0.60-0.95). There were no other statistically significant associations between birthweight and risk of parental illness. Discussion: We found little evidence of a consistent inverse relationship between birthweight and parental risk of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. This may be because of the quality of our data-which is limited by the problems of collecting robust data over two generations. © 2005 Diabetes UK.

Background: South Asian populations in the United Kingdom have a high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Risk prediction models appear to be inaccurate in South Asians. Objective: to explore the predictive capacity of the FINRISK, Framingham (1991) and SCORE risk prediction models in the Newcastle Heart Project population (n = 1301). Methods: Mortality data for England and Wales were used to define the expected ranking of CVD risk by country of birth. CVD mortality in the Newcastle Heart Project sample was examined. Risk factor measures were obtained from the Newcastle Heart Project, where 90 percent of South Asians were born in the Indian Subcontinent. The predicted outcomes for FINRISK were acute myocardial infarction and CHD mortality, for Framingham CHD mortality, myocardial infarction, new angina and coronary insufficiency and for SCORE CHD and non-CHD CVD mortality. Results: the FINRISK model predicted in South Asian men combined, compared with Europeans, a risk ratio of 122 per cent (SMR 142) with substantial subgroup heterogeneity, e.g. 154 per cent in Bangladeshis (SMR 151), 129 per cent in Pakistanis (SMR 148), 99 per cent in Indians (SMR 142). The FINRISK risk ratios for South Asian women combined were 160 per cent (SMR 145), for Bangladeshis 184 per cent (SMR 91), Pakistanis 172 per cent (SMR 111) and for Indians 145 per cent (SMR 158). The Framingham model results were very similar to FINRISK, but the SCORE model showed comparatively low 10 year risk in all South Asian groups. Both the Framingham stroke model and the SCORE non-CHD CVD model predicted comparatively low rates, while national data showed these to be high. Control of the five major risk factors was modelled by FINRISK to reduce risk by about 59 per cent in South Asian men and 67 per cent in South Asian women, with some subgroup heterogeneity, compared to 50 per cent in European men and 48 per cent in European women. The Framingham model results were similar. The absolute rates for each ethnic group varied by model. Conclusion: the Framingham and FINRISK models gave similar results, mostly following expected patterns, but the SCORE model did not, probably reflecting its lack of inclusion of HDL and diabetes as risk factors. National mortality data and modelled predictions agreed reasonably well for South Asians combined, and Bangladeshi and Pakistani men, but not for Indian men and Pakistani and Bangladeshi women. The varying rates show the limits of modelling. The models suggest the potential gains from controlling major established risk factors could be substantial in South Asians and greater than in Europeans. © the Author 2005, Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved.

Objectives. Jobs with high levels of demand and low levels of control have been linked to the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Limited evidence is available about the contribution of job characteristics to the increased risk of CHD in UK South Asian people. We aimed to describe psychosocial work characteristics in South Asian compared with European people. Design. Cross-sectional study in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, using self-reported measures of job demand, decision latitude, skill utilisation and social support at work in an age and sex stratified representative population sample of 652 adults of European (391) and South Asian (261) ethnic origin. Results. Compared to European people, fewer South Asian men (57% vs 47%) but more South Asian women (22% vs 48%) were employed. South Asian people were more likely than European people to be self-employed (33% vs 7% among men). Employed South Asian people were better educated and had higher income than European people. Compared to European men, more South Asian men had high job control (42% vs 35%) but similar proportions had high job demand (42% vs 41%). Fewer South Asian men had jobs that allowed a high use of skill, but more had high decision latitude. These differences were partly explained by higher rates of self-employment among South Asian people. South Asian people were more likely to be in low demand/high control jobs, while European people occupied a wider range of jobs, in low control and in high demand/high control occupations. More detailed sub-group analyses were not reliable because of small numbers. Conclusion. In a representative population sample the overall balance of job demand and control was similar in South Asian and European people, though South Asian people tended to be in jobs characterised by low skill and high decision latitude. These findings do not support the suggestion that increased work strain contributes to the increased risk of CHD in UK South Asian people. © 2005 Taylor & Francis.

OBJECTIVE - to estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod II), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death. RESULTS - the excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2-3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S. Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35-64 years old, 6-27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes. CONCLUSIONS - These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death. © 2005 by the American Diabetes Association.

Background. This study aimed to assess the association between lifetime exposure to urban environment (EU) and obesity, diabetes, and hypertension in an adult population of Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods. We studied 999 women and 727 men aged ≥25 years. They represent all the adults aged ≥25 years living in households randomly selected from a rural and an urban community of Cameroon with a 98% and 96% participation rate respectively. Height, weight, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose were measured in all subjects. Current levels of physical activity (in metabolic equivalents [MET]) were evaluated through the Sub-Saharan African Activity Questionnaire. Chronological data on lifetime migration were collected retrospectively and expressed as the total (EUt) or percentage (EU%) of lifetime exposure to urban environment. Results. Lifetime EUt was associated with body mass index (BMI) (r = 0.42; P < 0.0001), fasting glycaemia (r = 0.23; P < 0.0001), and blood pressure (r = 0.17; P < 0.0001) but not with age. The subjects who recently settled in a city (≤2 years) had higher BMI (+2.9 kg/m2; P < 0.001), fasting glycaemia (+0.8 mmol/l; P < 0.001), systolic (+23 mmHg; P < 0.001) and diastolic (+9 mmHg; P = 0.001) blood pressure than rural dwellers with a history of 2 years EU. EU during the first 5 years of life was not, on its own, associated with glycaemia or BMI. However, both lifetime EUt and current residence were independently associated with obesity and diabetes. The association between lifetime EUt and hypertension was not independent of current residence and current level of physical activity. Conclusions. This study suggests that for the study of obesity and diabetes, in addition to current residence, both lifetime exposure to an urban environment and recent migration history should be investigated. © International Epidemiological Association 2004; all rights reserved.

The classification of disease burdens is an important topic that receives little attention or debate. One common classification scheme, the broad cause grouping, is based on etiology and health transition theory and is mainly concerned with distinguishing communicable from noncommunicable diseases. This may be of limited utility to policymakers and planners. We propose a broad care needs framework to complement the broad cause grouping. This alternative scheme may be of equal or greater value to planners. We apply these schemes to disability-adjusted life year estimates for 2000 and to mortality data from Tanzania. The results suggest that a broad care needs approach could shift the priorities of health planners and policymakers and deserves further evaluation.

Aim: to determine knowledge and practice of foot care in people with diabetes. Methods: a questionnaire was completed by patients in Middlesbrough, South Tees, UK. A knowledge score was calculated and current practice determined. Practices that put patients at risk of developing foot ulcers and barriers to good practice were identified. Patients at high risk of ulceration were compared to those at low risk. Results: the mean knowledge score was 6.5 (S.D. 2.1) out of a possible 11. There was a positive correlation between the score and having received advice on foot care (6.9 versus 5.4, P=0.001). Deficiencies in knowledge included the inability to sense minor injury to the feet (47.3%), proneness to ulceration (52.4%) and effect of smoking on the circulation (44.5%). 24.6% (20.1-29.2) never visited a chiropodist, 18.5% (14.2-22.7) failed to inspect their feet and 83% (79.1-86.9) did not have their feet measured when they last purchased shoes. Practices that put patients at risk included use of direct forms of heat on the feet and walking barefoot. Barriers to practice of foot care were mainly due to co-morbidity. Those with high risk feet showed a higher (6.8) but not significant knowledge score compared to those at low risk (6.5) and their foot care practise was better. Conclusion: the results highlight areas where efforts to improve knowledge and practice may contribute to the prevention of foot ulcers and amputation. © 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Similarities between clinical states of glucocorticoid excess and obesity have raised suspicion of a link between the two conditions. An Asn363Ser (N363S) polymorphism in exon 2 of the glucocorticoid receptor has been associated with glucocorticoid sensitivity and excess adiposity in people of European origin. Compared with Europid populations, South Asians have a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, including type 2 diabetes and central obesity. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of the 363S allele in people of South Asian origin living in northeast England in relation to obesity and other cardiovascular risk factors. DNA from 142 males and 153 females was characterized for 363S allele status. Two N363S heterozygotes were identified; both subjects had raised body mass index and central obesity. Despite a higher prevalence of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2) people in the South Asian group compared with the Europid population in the same geographical area (66 vs. 56%, respectively), the 363S allele frequency was significantly lower in the South Asian group (0.3 vs. 3%, respectively). Therefore, the N363S polymorphism is unlikely to be an important factor in obesity and/or dysmetabolic traits in people of South Asian origin living in the United Kingdom.

Objectives. To describe the prevalence of serological evidence of infection with Helicobacter pylori among people of South Asian and European ethnic origins and to assess its association with prevalent coronary heart disease (CHD). Methods. We used a quantitative method to compare IgG antibodies to H. pylori in a population sample of 300 South Asians and 302 Europeans in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. Results. For men and women, respectively, H. pylori IgG (95% confidence interval) was 16.7 μg/ml (13.9, 20.2) and 11.3 (9.4, 13.5) among Europeans and 11.6 (9.8, 13.7) and 14.3 (12.1, 16.9) among South Asians. Levels were higher in older participants and in those of lower socioeconomic status. The ratio of geometric mean IgG, (95% confidence interval) adjusted for age, sex and socioeconomic status, in those with and without CHD was 1.02 (0.49, 2.11) among Europeans and 1.79 (1.01, 3.17) among South Asians. Antibodies against staphylococcal enterotoxins a and B were higher among South Asians than Europeans. Conclusions. The prevalence of H. pylori infection among UK South Asians does not reflect that of their countries of origin, nor their lower prevalence of gastric cancer. The association with CHD in South Asians requires corroboration in other studies. © 2003 the British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AIMS: Suboptimal maternal nutrition and catch-up growth in early childhood predispose to insulin resistance and other components of metabolic syndrome in later life. A central metabolic syndrome (CMS) has been identified comprising obesity, dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance. This study was designed to investigate determinants of risk for CMS. METHODS: Persons born in Newcastle in May and June 1947 (n = 358) were followed to 1996-1998. A lifecourse approach was used to estimate the proportion of variance in a summary measure of CMS at age 49-51 years accounted for by factors operating at different stages of life. RESULTS: After adjustment for other early life variables, childhood catch-up growth in men accounted for significant variation in the CMS score independent of adult lifestyle. In adulthood, exercise level in men and smoking in both genders were independently associated with CMS. Over two-thirds of explained variation in the CMS score in women, and almost half in men, was accounted for exclusively by factors measured in adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: While risk for CMS in men is compounded by early life disadvantage, promotion of a healthier adult lifestyle and a reduction in the number of people taking up smoking would appear to be the public health interventions most likely to reduce the prevalence of CMS in middle age.

The aim of this review is to summarize the contextual, clinical and health system challenges to the delivery of health care for diabetes in Africa. Planners need to allocate sufficient resources in a context where resources for health in general are insufficient. Choices need to be made between different options for health care within this context and mechanisms are required to facilitate the implementation of the selected options and ensure that quality of care is maintained. © 2003, European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved.

The aim of this review is to summarize the contextual, clinical and health system challenges to the delivery of health care for diabetes in Africa. Planners need to allocate sufficient resources in a context where resources for health in general are insufficient. Choices need to be made between different options for health care within this context and mechanisms are required to facilitate the implementation of the selected options and ensure that quality of care is maintained. © 2003 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Aims: We aimed to compare levels of urinary albumin excretion and the prevalence of microalbuminuria in UK South Asians and Europeans. Microalbuminuria predicts cardiovascular disease in European origin populations, but evidence from the general population of South Asians is lacking. Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is 40-50% higher in UK South Asians compared with the whole population, for reasons that are incompletely understood. Methods: Microalbuminuria was measured using the albumin-creatinine ratio in an age- and sex-stratified random sample of 1509 adults from European (n = 825), Indian (n = 259), Pakistani (n = 305) and Bangladeshi (n = 120) ethnic groups. Results: Levels of urinary albumin excretion were substantially higher in South Asians (geometric mean albumin creatinine ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.83 (0.75, 0.91)) than in Europeans (0.55 (0.51, 0.60)). Microalbuminuria was associated with older age, hypertension and diabetes, but independently of these risk factors urinary albumin excretion was higher in South Asians than Europeans. Conclusions: Urinary albumin excretion is higher and microalbuminuria more frequent in UK South Asians compared with the majority ethnic population. Microalbuminuria may be relevant to the causal pathways leading to the excess of cardiovascular mortality and possibly renal failure in UK South Asians.

Background: Understanding of the higher susceptibility of South Asians to coronary heart disease is limited. One explanation is the combination of high prevalence of insulin resistance with higher lipoprotein(a) levels. Materials and methods: Lipoprotein(a) levels and genotypes in three South Asian groups aged 25-74 years (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi) were compared with a European population in a cross-sectional study. Biochemical measurements included lipids, apolipoprotein A1 and B, glucose, insulin and fibrinogen. Insulin sensitivity was calculated using the homoeostasis model assessment method (HOMA). Results: There was no significant difference in lipoprotein(a) levels between South Asian and European men. South Asian women combined had higher lipoprotein(a) levels than European women, a difference probably resulting from higher lipoprotein(a) levels in Pakistani women compared with Indian and Bangladeshi women. Fasting insulin and HOMA were negatively associated with Lp(a) in South Asians though the associations were statistically significant only in men. There were only modest associations between most cardiovascular risk factors and Lp(a). Twenty-seven apolipoprotein(a) size alleles were detected in the three South Asian groups ranging from 16 to 43 kringle-IV repeats. The apolipoprotein(a) size polymorphism explained 23% of the variability in lipoprotein(a) levels in South Asians. Conclusions: There were few nongenetic predictors of lipoprotein(a) levels in South Asians and Europeans. The lack of difference in Lp(a) between the South Asian and European men and the fact that differences between the women seemed to be confined to the Pakistani group offer little support to the hypothesis that higher Lp(a) levels contribute to the increased risk of heart disease in South Asians. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that susceptibility to heart disease in South Asians results from a combination of high insulin resistance and high Lp(a) levels.

Objectives. To compare the social networks of South Asian (Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis) and European-origin participants in the Newcastle Heart Project, and to examine the relationships between social network sizes and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in both groups, testing the hypothesis that part of the reason for high rates of CHD in the South Asian UK population may be social isolation. Design. Participants were 684 South Asian (259 Indians, 305 Pakistanis, 120 Bangladeshis) and 825 European men and women aged 25-74 years, who completed a questionnaire and were screened for CHD risk factors in a cross-sectional study. Results. South Asians were more likely to be married than Europeans, had bigger households and were more likely to attend a place of worship regularly. Europeans saw more friends and relatives on a regular basis than did South Asians. There was also some heterogeneity between the South Asian groups. Europeans who reported bigger social networks were less likely to smoke than those with smaller networks, but there was little evidence of an association between social network size and waist circumference, blood pressure or TC:HDL ratio in either Europeans or South Asians. Conclusion. The results provided only partial support for the hypothesis that South Asians in the UK are socially isolated, and suggest that South Asians and Europeans in the UK utilise different sources of social support. Future work should acknowledge variation in sources of social support between ethnic groups, and should explore the possibility that different mechanisms link social support and health in different ethnic groups.

OBJECTIVE - to describe the mortality of a population with diabetes compared with the local nondiabetic population, using age-, sex-, and cause-specific death rates and relative and absolute differences in death rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - a population-based cohort of 4,842 people with diabetes living within South Tees, U.K. was identified and followed from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 1999. Causes of death were obtained from death certificates, and mortality rates were compared with the nondiabetic population of the same area for the same time period. RESULTS - There were 1,205 deaths (24.9%) in the study population during the 6 years of study. For type 2 diabetes, mortality from cardiovascular causes was significantly increased in both sexes and at all ages. Relative death rates for the age band 40-59 years were 5.47 (95% CI 4.18-7.15) for men and 5.60 (3.44-9.14) for women. The relative death rates declined with age for both sexes, but absolute excess mortality increased with age. There were no consistent differences in noncardiovascular death rates, other than for renal disease. Similar outcomes were found for type 1 diabetes, although these results were limited by a much smaller population size. People with diabetes and renal impairment had significantly higher mortality than people with diabetes alone, with a rate ratio of 7.27 for people with type 2 diabetes aged 40-59 years. CONCLUSIONS - in an area of the U.K. with high cardiovascular death rates, people with diabetes had significantly higher cardiovascular death rates than people without diabetes. Interventions targeted at cardiovascular risk factors should be used to try and reduce this excess premature mortality, which is especially high in those with renal impairment.

Background: the aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that in Europeans and South Asians (Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis) alike, worse socio-economic status is associated with a higher prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD), glucose intolerance (impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes) and related risk factors (the predicted direction of association). Methods: Cross-sectional data were analysed from a community-based prevalence study seeking associations between social class, education and Townsend deprivation score and ECG evidence of CHD, glucose tolerance test and 12 cardiovascular risk factors. The study population consisted of South Asians (n = 684) comprising Indians (n = 259), Pakistanis (n = 305) and Bangladeshis (n = 120), and Europeans (n = 825), aged 25-74 years in Newcastle. The analysis examined up to 84 associations for each ethnic group. Interactions between ethnicity and socio-economic variables were examined using regression analysis. The main outcome measure was the number of associations in the predicted direction. Results: Europeans fared better in some indicators of socio-economic position, South Asians in others. Indians were socio-economically advantaged compared with Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. Most measures of socio-economic position were associated with health measures in the predicted direction in Europeans [71/84 (85 per cent) associations, 25 statistically significant] and less so in the South Asians combined [58/84 (69 per cent) associations, 12 statistically significant]. In South Asian men 25/42 (60 per cent) of associations were as predicted, seven significantly so, in women 33/42 (79 per cent) were, five being statistically significant. There were apparent differences between Indians [52/78 (67 per cent) of associations as predicted, seven statistically significant], Pakistanis [41/84 (49 per cent), four statistically significant] and Bangladeshis [39/79 (49 per cent), one statistically significant]. In Indians, Townsend deprivation score was mostly associated as predicted [23/27 (85 per cent), five associations statistically significant], more so than social class [14/27 (52 per cent), none statistically significant]. In South Asian men and women combined, associations with anthropometric [18/24 (75 per cent)], biochemical [15/18 (83 per cent)], and lifestyle [14/18 (78 per cent)] measures were often as predicted, but those with blood pressure (4/12, 33 per cent) and CHD and glucose intolerance (7/12, 58 per cent) were less often so. Interactions between socio-economic position and ethnicity were found. Conclusions: the European pattern of inequalities is being established in South Asian men and women, possibly at a different pace in different subgroups. Future studies of inequalities should be large, separate Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations, study men and women separately and track changes over time.

Drug interactions are an important and emerging problem in the treatment of HIV-infected patients. Protease inhibitors, like nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, are metabolized by the cytochrome P-450 enzyme system and each of these antiretroviral agents may interact with other drugs metabolized by this system. Some protease inhibitors may also interact with glucuronosyl transferase activity affecting plasma concentrations of drugs metabolized through this pathway. We describe a case of an HIV-infected patient, taking levothyroxine for hypothyroidism and clinically stable, who, after the introduction of an antiretroviral regimen containing indinavir, developed a pharmacological hyperthyroidism.

Background: Differences in level of physical activity between European, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations living in the UK might contribute to differences in the prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk markers that exist in these populations. Methods: Type and level of physical activity (measured by a multidimensional index) and its relationship with selected cardiovascular disease and diabetes risk factors were assessed in a cross-sectional, population-based study of European, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi men and women, aged 25-75, resident in Newcastle upon Tyne. Results: Europeans were found to be more physically active than Indians, Pakistanis or Bangladeshis. On our physical activity index 52 per cent of European men did not meet current guidelines for participation in physical activity compared with 71 per cent of Indians, 88 per cent of Pakistanis and 87 per cent of Bangladeshis. Similar findings are reported for women. In particular, European men and women participated more frequently in moderate and vigorous sport and recreational activities. In general, level of physical activity was inversely correlated with body mass index (BMI), waist measurement, systolic blood pressure, and blood glucose and insulin in all ethnic groups, but did not correlate with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Conclusions: South Asians in Newcastle report significantly lower levels of habitual physical activity than Europeans. This is likely to contribute to the higher levels of diabetes and cardiovascular risk in these populations. Measures to increase physical activity in these populations are urgently needed. © 2002 Faculty of Public Health Medicine.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate and compare physical activity patterns of urban and rural dwellers in Cameroon, and study their relationship with obesity, diabetes and hypertension. METHODS: We studied 2465 subjects aged ≥ 15y, recruited on the basis of a random sampling of households, of whom 1183 were urban dwellers from Yaoundé, the capital city of Cameroon and 1282 rural subjects from Bafut, a village of western Cameroon. They all had an interviewer-administered questionnaire for the assessment of their physical activity and anthropometric measurements, blood pressure and fasting blood glucose determination. The procedure was satisfactorily completed in 2325 (94.3%) subjects. Prevalences were age-adjusted and subjects compared according to their region, sex and age group. RESULTS: Obesity was diagnosed in 17.1 and 3.0% urban and rural women, respectively (P < 0.001), and in 5.4 vs 1.2% urban and rural men, respectively (P < 0.001). The prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher in urban vs rural dwellers (11.4 vs 6.6% and 17.6 vs 9.1% in women and men, respectively; P < 0.001). Diabetes was more prevalent in urban compared to rural women (P < 0.05), but not men. Urban subjects were characterized by lower physical activity (P < 0.001), light occupation, high prevalence of multiple occupations, and reduced walking and cycling time compared to rural subjects. Univariate analysis showed significant associations between both physical inactivity and obesity and high blood pressure. The relationship of physical inactivity with hypertension and obesity were independent in both urban and rural men, but not in women. Body mass index, blood pressure and glycaemia were higher in the first compared with the fourth quartiles of energy expenditure. CONCLUSION: Obesity, diabetes and hypertension prevalence is higher in urban compared to rural dwellers in the populations studied. Physical activity is significantly lower and differs in pattern in urban subjects compared to rural. Physical inactivity is associated with these diseases, although not always significant in women.

The objective of this study was to identify the optimal timing of sampling during the menstrual cycle for assessment of interindividual variation in exposure to endogenous sex hormones, including estradiol, progesterone, and the free androgen index. Twenty-four healthy premenopausal women with regular periods were recruited, and alternate day venous blood samples were taken in the morning throughout one menstrual cycle. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were calculated for the estimates of average hormone levels (based on area under the curve) over one menstrual cycle against values on single days within that cycle. Days within the menstrual cycle were identified that provided the best assessment of interindividual differences. The most consistent correlation for estradiol was seen between days 9 and 11 (e.g. r = 0.53 and P = 0.01, day 10), the most consistent correlation for progesterone was seen between days 17 and 21 (e.g. r = 0.80 and P < 0.001, day 20), and the most consistent correlation for free androgen index was seen between days 12 and 15 (e.g. r = 0.90 and P < 0.001, day 15). Post hoc analysis of estradiol and progesterone levels on days counted back from the start of the next menstrual cycle identified marginally stronger associations. On repeat hormone measurements (not done for progesterone) on days 10 and 15, two to five menstrual cycles later, correlation coefficients with the original hormone levels remained reasonable (≤0.55) for most. In conclusion, a reasonable characterization of interindividual differences in premenopausal estradiol, androgen, and progesterone levels may be achieved with single blood samples taken on specific days. This provides a useful approach for future epidemiological studies.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes and other forms of glucose intolerance, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity, are on the increase in developing countries. The clustering of these diseases in the same individuals is sometimes referred to as "metabolic syndrome" or "insulin resistance syndrome." While the major cause of mortality in much of sub-Saharan Africa continues to be infections disease, it is likely that the health transition will see NCDs, and metabolic syndrome in particular, take over this role in the next two decades. Urban dwellers show a much higher rate of these NCDs compared to rural dwellers. Our data from Tanzania as well as a variety of published studies illustrate the urban-rural difference in patterns of disease. This contrast leads to the question of whether particular lifestyle features of city dwelling predispose individuals to metabolic syndrome, or whether individuals with a genetic predisposition to metabolic syndrome self-select for migration to cities. The interaction of adaptation, modernization, stress and disease seems likely to play a role in the changes experienced by rural-to-urban migrants, with the caveat that locally specific cultural, historical and economic factors must be taken into consideration. Understanding the causes of adult ill-health in the urban environment will enhance the ability of governments to plan appropriate health policies.

Objective. To develop and validate a questionnaire for measuring physical activity within Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods. We designed the Sub-Saharan Africa Activity Questionnaire (SSAAQ), based upon existing questionnaires and an activity survey carried out in Cameroon. The questionnaire targeted past-year occupation, walking/cycling and leisure-time activities, and was administered by trained interviewers on two occasions, 10-15 days apart to 89 urban and rural consenting Cameroonians aged 19-68 years. Reliability was assessed by inter-interview comparison and repeatability coefficients (standard deviation of the test-retest difference). Validation was performed against a 24-hour heart rate monitoring and accelerometer recording. Results. The questionnaire was highly reproducible (ρ = 0.95; P < 0.001). The inter-interview difference did not differ significantly from 0, with a repeatability coefficient of 0.46-1.46 hours. Total energy expenditure from the questionnaire was significantly correlated to heart rate monitoring (ρ = 0.41-0.63; P < 0.05) and accelerometer measures (ρ = 0.60-0.74; P < 0.01). Subject's self ranking of their activity did not match the questionnaire's quartiles of activity. Conclusions. The present study presents the design and confirms the reliability and validity of SSAAQ in a rural and urban population of Cameroon and shows that subject's self ranking of activity might not accurately serve epidemiological purpose.

Objectives: to establish the age and sex specific mortality for people with diabetes in comparison with local and national background populations; to investigate the relationship between mortality and material deprivation in an unselected population with diabetes. Design: Longitudinal study, using a population based district diabetes register. Setting: South Tees, United Kingdom. Participants: all people known to have diabetes living in Middlesbrough and Redcar and Cleveland local authorities on 1 January 1994. Main outcome measure: Death, from any cause, between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 1999. Results: over the six years of the study 1205 (24.9%) of 4842 participants died. All cause standardised mortality ratios for type 1 diabetes were 641 (95% confidence interval 406 to 962) in women and 294 (200 to 418) in men, and those for type 2 diabetes were 160 (147 to 174) in women and 141 (130 to 152) in men. Cause specific standardised mortality ratios were increased for ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and renal disease; no reductions in mortality from other causes were seen. The risk of premature death increased significantly with increasing material deprivation (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Diabetes is associated with excess mortality, even in an area with high background death rates from cardiovascular disease. This excess mortality is evident in all age groups, most pronounced in young people with type 1 diabetes, and exacerbated by material deprivation. Aggressive approaches to the management of cardiovascular risk factors could reduce the excess mortality in people with diabetes.

Aims: to evaluate the efficacy of interventions to promote a healthy diet and physical activity in people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Methods: a randomised controlled trial in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, 1995-98. Participants included 67 adults (38 men; 29 women) aged 24-75 years with IGT. The intervention consisted of regular diet and physical activity counselling based on the stages of change model. Main outcome measures were changes between baseline and 6 months in nutrient intake; physical activity; anthropometric and physiological measurements including serum lipids; glucose tolerance; insulin sensitivity. Results: the difference in change in total fat consumption was significant between intervention and control groups (difference -21.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) -37.8 to -5.8) g/day, P=0.008). A significantly larger proportion of intervention participants reported taking up vigorous activity than controls (difference 30.1, (95% CI 4.3-52.7)%, P=0.021). The change in body mass index was significantly different between groups (difference -0.95 (95% CI -1.5 to -0.4) kg/m2, P=0.001). There was no significant difference in change in mean 2-h plasma glucose between groups (difference -0.19 (95% CI -1.1 to 0.71) mmol/l, NS) or in serum cholesterol (difference 0.02 (95% CI -0.26 to 0.31) mmol/l, NS). The difference in change in fasting serum insulin between groups was significant (difference -3.4 (95% CI -5.8 to -1.1) mU/l, P=0.005). Conclusions: After 6 months of intensive lifestyle intervention in participants with IGT, there were changes in diet and physical activity, some cardiovascular risk factors and insulin sensitivity, but not glucose tolerance. Further follow-up is in progress to investigate whether these changes are sustained or augmented over 2 years. Copyright © 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.

Little research has been conducted on health in Chinese communities in the UK and there are few representative data on smoking, alcohol consumption or other aspects of lifestyle. We undertook a cross sectional population-based study of 380 Chinese and 625 European men and women aged 25 to 64 y, using self-completion and interview questionnaires in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK between 1991 and 1995. We measured self-reported prevalence of cigarette smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per week and age at starting smoking; self-reported prevalence of alcohol consumption and units of alcohol consumed per week. In age-adjusted comparisons smoking was less common in Chinese (24%) than European men (35%) (P=0.00002) and among Chinese (1%) compared with European women (33%) (P

Considerable evidence suggests that diabetes mellitus and hypertension are influenced by genetic factors. Studies in humans have associated glucocorticoid receptor (GR) polymorphisms with high blood pressure, insulin sensitivity, body mass index, increased visceral fat, and variations in tissue-specific steroid sensitivity. The N363S polymorphism of the GR results in an asparagine to serine amino acid substitution in a modulatory region of the receptor. Phosphorylation of serine residues in this region has been shown to enhance transactivation of GR responsive genes. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the 363S allele and risk factors for coronary heart disease and diabetes mellitus in a population of European origin living in the northeast of the United Kingdom. Blood samples from 135 males and 240 females were characterized for 363 allele status. The overall frequency of the 363S allele was 3.0%, 23 heterozygotes (7 males and 16 females) but no 363S homozygotes were identified. The data show a significant association of the 363S allele with increased waist to hip ratio in males but not females. This allele was not associated with blood pressure, body mass index, serum cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and glucose tolerance status. The results of this study suggest that this GR polymorphism may contribute to central obesity in men. Further studies are required to elucidate the properties of GR363S at a molecular level.

This paper describes rates and causes of injury deaths among community members in three districts of the United Republic of Tanzania. A population-based study was carried out in two rural district and one urban area in Tanzania. Deaths occurring in the study areas were monitored prospectively during a period of six years. Censuses were conducted annually in the rural areas and biannually in the urban area to determine the denominator populations. Cause-specific death rates and Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to injury were calculated for the three study areas. During a 6 year period (1992-1998), 5047 deaths were recorded in Dar es Salaam, 9339 in Hai District and 11 155 in Morogoro Rural District. Among all ages, deaths due to injuries accounted for 5% of all deaths in Dar es Salaam, 8% in Hai and 5% in Morogoro. The age-standardised injury death rates among men were approximately three times higher than among women in all study areas. Transport accidents were the commonest cause of mortality in all injury-related deaths in the three project areas, except for females in Hai District, where it ranked second after intentional self-harm. We conclude that injury deaths impose a considerable burden in Tanzania. Strategies should be strengthened in the prevention and control of avoidable premature deaths due to injuries.

Background. The Rose angina questionnaire has been extensively used in different cultural settings, but may not perform consistently in different ethnic groups. We set out to assess the performance of the Rose angina questionnaire in UK South Asians compared with Europeans. Methods. Data on major ECG abnormalities, possible or definite Rose questionnaire angina and diagnosed angina were collected from an age- and sex-stratified random sample of 1509 adults from European, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi ethnic groups. Results. The ECG abnormalities were commoner in South Asians than Europeans (6% versus 2% in men). The prevalence in both South Asian and European men of possible Rose angina and diagnosed angina was 18% and 8%, respectively, but definite Rose angina was less common in South Asians (3% versus 6%). Definite Rose angina showed lower sensitivity for other measures in South Asians than in Europeans: sensitivity for a doctor's diagnosis was 21% in South Asian and 37% in European men. For possible Rose angina, the corresponding figures were 81% and 84%. Similar patterns were seen in women. Conclusions. The performance of the Rose angina questionnaire was sufficiently inconsistent to warrant further work to achieve greater cross-cultural validity. Possible Rose angina performed more consistently across ethnic groups than definite Rose angina and pending further validation studies may be the most appropriate form to use.

Aims: to examine the implications for epidemiological studies of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) recommendation that the fasting blood glucose at a lowered level becomes the main diagnostic test for diabetes on cross-sectional-based data from sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: Data from 11 surveys conducted in rural, peri-urban and urban Cameroon (n = 1804), South Africa (n = 3799) and Tanzania (n = 10013) which measured fasting (ADA criteria) and 2-h blood glucose concentrations during a standard 75 g OGTT (old WHO criteria) were analysed. Results: the prevalence of diabetes was higher in eight of the 11 surveys when applying the new ADA compared to the old WHO criteria. With the exception of one population (Mara, Tanzania) the absolute difference in prevalence between the two classifications tended to be small (< 2%). There was considerable variation in the categorization of individuals using the ADA and old WHO criteria. The level of agreement between the two ranged from fair to good (Kappa statistic 0.17-0.8.6). The prevalence of impaired fasting glycaemia (IFG) was lower than that of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in 10 of the surveys and the agreement between the two was fair, ≤ 0.26 in all the surveys. Conclusions: Although the use of the new ADA fasting criteria for prevalence surveys is an attractive and practical option, particularly in Africa, further information is required on the characteristics and prognosis of individuals classified as IFG or diabetic by the fasting criteria, prior to wide adoption of the ADA criteria. Ideally measurement of both fasting and two low glucose concentrations should remain the standard for epidemilogical studies.

Objective - to establish the relation between socioeconomic status and the age-sex specific prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The hypothesis was that prevalence of type 2 diabetes would be inversely related to socioeconomic status but there would be no association with the prevalence of type 1 diabetes and socioeconomic status. Setting - Middlesbrough and East Cleveland, United Kingdom, district population 287 157. Patients - 4313 persons with diabetes identified from primary care and hospital records. Results - the overall age adjusted prevalence was 15.60 per 1000 population. There was a significant trend between the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and quintile of deprivation score in men and women (χ2 for linear trend, p < 0.001). In men the prevalence in the least deprived quintile was 13.4 per 1000 (95% confidence intervals (95% CI) 11.44, 15.36) compared with 17.22 per 1000 (95% CI 15.51, 18.92) in the most deprived. For women the prevalence was 10.84 per 1000 (95% CI 9.00, 12.69) compared with 15.48 per 1000 (95% CI 13.84, 17.11) in the most deprived. The increased prevalence of diabetes in the most deprived areas was accounted for by increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the age band 40-69 years. There was no association between the prevalence of type 1 diabetes and socioeconomic status. Conclusion - These data confirm an inverse association between socioeconomic status and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the middle years of life. This finding suggests that exposure to factors that are implicated in the causation of diabetes is more common in deprived areas.

Background: This study was established to enable a comparison of lower extremity amputation incidence rates between different centres around the world. Methods: Ten centres, all with populations greater than 200,000, in Japan, Taiwan, Spain, Italy, North America and England collected data on all amputations done between July 1995 and June 1997. Patients were identified from at least two data sources (to allow checks on ascertainment); denominator populations were based on census figures. Results: the highest amputation rates were in the Navajo population (43.9 per 100,000 population per year for first major amputation in men) and the lowest in Madrid, Spain (2.8 per 100,000 per year). The incidence of amputation rose steeply with age; most amputations occurred in patients over 60 years. In most centres the incidence was higher in men than women and the incidence of major amputations was greater than that of minor amputations. Diabetes was associated with between 25 and 90 per cent of amputations. Conclusion: Apart from the Navajo centre, differences in the known prevalence of diabetes could not account for the differences in overall incidence of amputation. Differences in the prevalence of peripheral vascular disease are likely to be important, but this and the role of other factors, including availability of health care, are worthy of further investigation.

Objective. To quantify the direct and indirect effects of fetal life, childhood, and adult life on risk of cardiovascular disease at age 49-51 years. Design. Follow up study of the 'Newcastle thousand families' birth cohort established in 1947. Participants 154 men and 193 women who completed a health and lifestyle questionnaire and attended for clinical examination between October 1996 and December 1998. Main outcome measures. Correlations between mean intima-media thickness of the carotid artery (carotid intima-media thickness) and family history, birth weight, and socioeconomic position around birth; socioeconomic position, growth, illness, and adverse life events in childhood; and adult socioeconomic position, lifestyle, and biological risk markers. Proportions of variance in carotid intima-media thickness that were accounted for by each stage of the lifecourse. Results. Socioeconomic position at birth and birth weight were negatively associated with carotid intima-media thickness, although only social class at birth in women was a statistically significant covariate independent of adult lifestyle. These early life variables accounted directly for 2.2% of total variance in men and 2.0% in women. More variation in carotid intima-media thickness was explained by adult socioeconomic position and lifestyle, which accounted directly and indirectly for 3.4% of variance in men (95% confidence interval 0.5% to 6.2%) and 7.6% in women (2.1% to 13.0%). Biological risk markers measured in adulthood independently accounted for a further 9.5% of variance in men (2.4% to 14.2%) and 4.9% in women (1.6% to 7.4%). Conclusions. Adult lifestyle and biological risk markers were the most important determinants of the cardiovascular health of the study members of the Newcastle thousand families cohort at age 49-51 years. The limited overall effect of early life factors may reflect the postwar birth year of this cohort.

Background. Most data for stroke mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are hospital based. We aimed to establish the contribution of cerebrovascular disease to all-cause mortality and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates in adults aged 15 years or more in one urban and two rural areas of Tanzania. Methods. Regular censuses of the three surveillance populations consisting of 307,820 people (125,932 aged below 15 years and 181,888 aged 15 or more) were undertaken with prospective monitoring of all deaths arising in these populations between June 1, 1992 and May 31, 1995. Verbal autopsies were completed with relatives or carers of the deceased to assess, when possible, the cause of death. Findings. During the 3-year observation period 11,975 deaths were recorded in the three surveillance areas, of which 7629 (64%) were in adults aged 15 years or more (4088 [54%] of these in men and 3541 [46%] in women). In the adults, 421 (5.5%) of the deaths were attributed to cerebrovascular disease, 225 (53%) of these in men and 196 (47%) in women. The yearly age-adjusted rates per 100,000 in the 15-64 year age group for the three project areas (urban, fairly prosperous rural, and poor rural, respectively) were 65 (95% CI 39-90), 44 (31-56), and 35 (22-48) for men, and 88 (48-128), 33 (22-43), and 27 (16-38) for women, as compared with the England and Wales (1993) rates of 10.8 (10.0-11.6) for men and 8.6 (7.9-9.3) for women. Interpretation. We postulate that the high rates in Tanzania were due to untreated hypertension. Our study assessed mortality over a single time period and therefore it is not posible to comment on trends with time. However, ageing of the population is likely to lead to a very large increase in mortality from stroke in the future.

Aims: to assess whether four proxy measures of abdominal obesity (waist circumference; waist-to-hip ratio (WHR); waist-to-height ratio and C index, a measure of body shape) were uniformly associated with features of the metabolic syndrome (triglycerides, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, 2-h glucose) in three ethnic groups. Methods: Anthropometric and biochemical data were collected in 629 Europeans (320 men, 309 women), 380 Chinese (183 men, 197 women) and 597 South Asians (275 men, 322 women) aged 25-64 years in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. Linear regression models were used to determine whether relationships differed between ethnic groups. Results: Linear regression analysis showed that most proxy measures of abdominal obesity were associated with features of the metabolic syndrome. There were significant interactions between WHR and ethnicity and C index and ethnicity in the relationship with log triglycerides when comparing European and Chinese women. Interactions existed between all proxy measures and ethnicity in the relationship with log triglycerides and HDL cholesterol when comparing European and South Asian women. In men, interactions between ethnicity and waist circumference, WHR and C index when comparing Europeans and South Asians, and between ethnicity and WHR and C index when comparing South Asian and Chinese for log 2-h glucose were significant (P < 0.001). All interactions remained significant when differences in smoking, alcohol and physical activity were taken into account. Conclusions: Not all the proxy measures of abdominal obesity were consistently related to features of the metabolic syndrome across the ethnic groups studied. However, waist circumference and waist to height ratio were the most consistent and WHR the least when comparing across the ethnic groups.

Objective. To compare coronary risk factors and disease prevalence among Indians, Pakistanis, and Bangladeshis, and in all South Asians (these three groups together) with Europeans. Design. Cross sectional survey. Setting. Newcastle upon Tyne. Participants. 259 Indian, 305 Pakistani, 120 Bangladeshi, and 825 European men and women aged 25-74 years. Main outcome measures. Social and economic circumstances, lifestyle, self reported symptoms and diseases, blood pressure, electrocardiogram, and anthropometric, haematological, and biochemical measurements. Results. There were differences in social and economic circumstances, lifestyles, anthropometric measures and disease both between Indians, Pakistanis, and Bangladeshis and between all South Asians and Europeans. Bangladeshis and Pakistanis were the poorest groups. For most risk factors, the Bangladeshis (particularly men) fared the worst: smoking was most common (57%) in that group, and Bangladeshis had the highest concentrations of triglycerides (2.04 mmol/l) and fasting blood glucose (6.6 mmol/l) and the lowest concentration of high density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.97 mmol/l). Blood pressure, however, was lowest in Bangladeshis. Bangladeshis were the shortest (men 164 cm tall v 170 cm for Indians and 174 cm for Europeans). A higher proportion of Pakistani and Bangladeshi men had diabetes (22.4% and 26.6% respectively) than Indians (15.2%). Comparisons of all South Asians with Europeans hid some important differences, but South Asians were still disadvantaged in a wide range of risk factors. Findings in women were similar. Conclusion. Risk of coronary heart disease is not uniform among South Asians, and there are important differences between Indians, Pakistanis, and Bangladeshis for many coronary risk factors. The belief that, except for insulin resistance, South Asians have lower levels of coronary risk factors than Europeans is incorrect, and may have arisen from combining ethnic subgroups and examining a narrow range of factors.

The American Diabetes Association have recommended that the fasting plasma glucose level for the diagnosis of diabetes is lowered and that this becomes the main diagnostic test. We have used population-based data from three ethnic groups in Newcastle upon Tyne to examine the implications of this change. Data were available on 824 European (25-74 years), 375 Chinese (25-64 years), and 680 South Asian (25-74 years) subjects. All subjects apart from those reporting a prior diagnosis of diabetes underwent a standard 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (WHO criteria) which included the measurement of fasting glucose. The prevalence of diabetes was higher in all three ethnic groups using the new ADA criteria compared to the WHO criteria: 7.1% vs 4.8% in Europeans; 6.2% vs 4.7% in Chinese; and 21.4% vs 20.1% in South Asians. There was much variation in individuals categorized by the ADA and WHO criteria. Agreement between the two for the diagnosis of previously unknown diabetes was only moderate (kappa statistics 0.42 to 0.59). Thus in the populations studied the new criteria would increase the prevalence of diabetes in addition to classifying some individuals diabetic by current criteria as nondiabetic. It should be stressed however that diagnosis of the individual should not be based on a single test.

The relative contribution of socioeconomic, behavioural and biological factors operating in fetal and infant life, childhood and adulthood to risk for cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases and non-insulin-dependent diabetes in middle age has become an important research issue. All 1142 babies born in Newcastle upon Tyne in May and June 1947 were recruited into a prospective cohort study of child health (the 'Thousand Families' study) and followed in great detail to the age of 15 y, with a brief further follow up at age 22 y. Children from poorer families were at greatest risk of severe respiratory tract infection in infancy. Children from professional and managerial families were on average taller and heavier throughout childhood than those from semi- and unskilled manual social classes. Repeated infections in early childhood greatly increased the risk of developing chronic respiratory disease by age 15 y. This paper outlines a new investigation designed to trace surviving members of this cohort and to chart the relationships between their socioeconomic circumstances, lifestyles, experiences and health from birth through to the present day. Existing data on socioeconomic circumstances and infections in infancy and childhood, infant nutrition, birthweight and physical development to age 22 y will be linked to information gained from a new study. This comprises a postal questionnaire survey of study members' adult health, socioeconomic circumstances and lifestyle, and a hospital based clinical examination including heart and lung function, glucose tolerance, blood lipids and anthropometric measurements at age 49-51 y. Out of a target sample of 979 people for whom sufficient data are available on the first year of life, 866 (88%) have been traced and 649 are still resident in the North of England. Those study members who have been traced are highly representative of the original cohort. The Thousand Families cohort provides a unique opportunity for detailed epidemiological study because of the wealth of data available on infant and childhood socioeconomic and family circumstances, all of which was collected prospectively. In addition, there has been comparatively little loss to follow-up since 1948.

Objective: to compare the implications of four widely used cholesterol screening and treatment guidelines by applying them to a population in the United Kingdom. Design: Guidelines were applied to population based data from a cross sectional study of cardiovascular disease and risk factors. Setting: Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom. Subjects: General population sample (predominantly of European origin) of 322 men and 319 women aged 25-64 years. Main outcome measures: Proportions recommended for screening and treatment. Methods: Criteria from the British Hyperlipidaemia Association, the British Drugs and Therapeutics Bulletin (which used the Sheffield table), the European Atherosclerosis Society, and the American national cholesterol education programme were applied to the population. Results: Proportions recommended for treatment varied appreciably. Based on the British Drugs and Therapeutics Bulletin guidelines, treatment was recommended for 5.3% (95%0 confidence interval 2.9% to 7.7%) of men and 3.3% (1.5% to 5.3%) of women, while equivalent respective values were 4.6 (2.3 to 6.9) and 2.8 (1.0 to 4.6) for the British Hyperlipidaemia Association, 23% (18.4% to 27.6%) and 10.6% (7.3% to 14.0%) for the European Atherosclerosis Society, and 37.2% (31.9% to 42.5%) and 22.2% (17.6% to 26.8%) for the national cholesterol education programme. Only the British Hyperlipidaemia Association and Drugs and Therapeutics Bulletin guidelines recommend selective screening. Applying British Hyperlipidaemia Association guidelines, from 7.1% (4.3% to 9.9%) of men in level one to 56.7% (51.3% to 62.1%) of men in level three, and from 4.4% (2.1% to 6.7%) of women in level one to 54.4% (48.9% to 59.9%) of women in level three would have been recommended for cholesterol screening. Had the Drugs and Therapeutics Bulletin guidelines been applied, 22.2% (16.5% to 27.9%) of men and 12.2% (8.6% to 15.8%) of women would have been screened. Conclusions: Without evidence based guidelines, there are problems of variation. A consistent approach needs to be developed and agreed across the United Kingdom.

Objective - to compare the prevalence of glucose intolerance (impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes), and its relationship to body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio in Chinese and Europid adults. Design - This was a cross sectional study. Setting - Newcastle upon Tyne. Subjects - These comprised Chinese and Europid men and women, aged 25-64 years, and resident in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. Main outcome measures - Two hour post load plasma glucose concentration, BMI, waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio. Methods - Population based samples of Chinese and European adults were recruited. Each subject had a standard WHO oral glucose tolerance test. Results - Complete data were available for 375 Chinese and 610 Europid subjects. The age adjusted prevalences of glucose intolerance in Chinese and Europid men were 13.0% v 13.6% (p = 0.85), and corresponding values in women were 20.2% v 13.3% (p = 0.04). Mean BMIs were lower in Chinese men (23.8 v 26.1) and women (23.5 v 26.1) than in the Europids (p values < 0.001), as were waist circumferences (men, 83.3 cm v 90.8, p < 0.001; women, 77.3 cm v 79.2, p < 0.05). Mean waist-hip ratios were lower in Chinese men (0.90 v 0.91, p = 0.02) but higher in Chinese women (0.84 v 0.78, p < 0.001) compared with Europids. In both Chinese and Europid adults, higher BMI, waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio were associated with glucose intolerance. Conclusions - the prevalence of glucose intolerance in Chinese men and women, despite lower BMIs, is similar to or higher than that in local Europid men and women and intermediate between levels found in China and those in Mauritius. It is suggested that an increase in mean BMI to the levels in the Europid population will be associated with a substantial increase in glucose intolerance in Chinese people.

Definition of Chinese. For the purposes of this study, Chinese refers to residents of the UK who either on the basis of name (face-to-face contact not made), or self-definition and appearance (contact made) had origins in China and included those born in the UK and others migrating to the UK via a third country (for example Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong etc). This is a pragmatic definition. There is a paucity of research on health in the UK Chinese community partly due to the difficulties of identifying and accessing study populations. For a survey of cardiovascular disease we aimed to identify and recruit all Chinese adults aged 25-64 y living in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK. One thousand, eight hundred and sixty-five potential subjects were identified using a variety of methods. of the 1702 potential subjects identified from a name analysis of the 1991 FHSA register (FHSA group), 638 students in halls of residence were excluded and the remaining 1064 were invited to participate. Non-respondents were followed up. of the 1064, 658 (65.5%) addresses were no longer valid, 21 (2%) were reclassified as non-Chinese and no contact was made with 18 individuals (1.6%). A further 163 subjects (non-FHSA soup) came forward in response to publicity, giving a total of 530 Chinese actually identified in Newcastle. Three hundred and eighty subjects took part in the study. Compared to the 1991 Census, the recruitment procedure underestimated the total population size, particularly for men and younger ages. In the FHSA group, men were significantly more likely to be current drinkers, and women were more likely to smoke and have a lower educational attainment that the non-FHSA group. There were no other important differences in the distribution of CHD risk markers in the two groups. Our experience indicates that the FHSA register is suitable for identifying Chinese but should be used alongside other complementary methods to augment samples for ethnicity and health research.

Objective. To compare the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and coronary heart disease in Chinese and Europid adults. Design. Population based, cross sectional survey. Setting. Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, 1991-93. Subjects. Altogether 380 Chinese and 625 Europid adults, aged 25-64 years. Main outcome measures. Fasting lipid levels, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), the proportions who smoked, and the prevalence of coronary heart disease based on the Rose angina questionnaire and major electrocardiographic abnormalities on resting 12 lead electrocardiogram (Minnesota codes 1.1-1.2). All figures were age adjusted to the 1991 England and Wales population. Results. Altogether 183 and 197 Chinese, and 310 and 315 Europid men and women respectively were seen. Compared with Europid men, Chinese men had a lower mean total cholesterol concentration (5.1 versus 5.6 mmol/l, p < 0.001) and LDL cholesterol (3.2 versus 3.6 mmol/l, p < 0.001); lower BMI values (23.8 versus 26.1 kg/m-2, p < 0.001); and smoked less (23% versus 35%, p < 0.O1)). Compared with Europid women, Chinese women also had lower mean lipid levels (total cholesterol: 4.9 versus 5.4 mmol/l p < 0.001, LDL cholesterol: 2.8 versus 3.1 mmol/l p < 0.001); BMI values (23.5 versus 26.1 kg/m-2, p < 0.001); and far fewer were smokers (1.4% versus 33%, p < 0.001). Chinese women, however, had higher mean systolic (121 versus 117 mmHg, p > 0.05) and diastolic (75 versus 68 mmHg, p < 0.001) blood pressures. The prevalence of coronary heart disease was significantly lower in Chinese than Europid men (4.9% versus 16.6%, p < 0.001) but not significantly different in women (7.3% versus 11.1%, p = 0.16). Conclusion. Strategies for UK Chinese are needed to maintain this favourable risk factor profile and prevent any potential increase in the risk of coronary heart disease associated with increasing acculturation.

Serum concentrations of vitamins a and E were measured in 32 subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and 148 subjects with normal glucose tolerance using reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography. Fasting glucose, insulin and lipid concentrations were also measured. Serum vitamin a concentrations were higher in subjects with IGT 2.5 (1.1-3.4) vs. 2.1 (1.4-3.2) μmol/l [median (2.5-97.5 percentiles)] (P=0.002), the difference remaining significant after adjustment for triglycerides (P = 0.028). There was a univariate association between vitamin a levels and insulin resistance (r = 0.164; P = 0.02) and in multivariate logistic regression analysis the relative risk of subjects with high vitamin a concentrations having IGT was 3.8 (P = 0.002). There were no differences in serum vitamin E concentrations between the groups. These data suggest that higher vitamin a concentrations found in non-insulin-dependent diabetes pre- date the onset of diabetes. Further studies are required to confirm this finding and to investigate the possibility of a role for vitamin a in the aetiology of diabetes and IGT.

We assessed the prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors including insulin resistance in 500 (205 males, 295 females) healthy elderly (age > 55 years) indigenous, low socioeconomic group Yorubas residents in either an urban slum (n = 240) or a rural town (n = 260) in southwestern Nigeria. Anthropometric indices, blood pressure and fasting plasma levels of glucose, lipids, insulin and insulin resistance were measured. The results indicated that: (i) gross obesity (4.4%), diabetes (1.6%), hyperlipidaemia (0.2%) and cigarette smoking (4.8%) were relatively uncommon in the population, although the prevalence of hypertension (30%) was higher than previously reported from this population; (ii) the subjects had a relatively high prevalence of multiple CHD risk factors (about 20% had > 4 risk factors), an observation considered paradoxical in view of the reportedly low CHD prevalence in this population; (iii) these CHD risk factors (increased body mass and blood pressure (BP), hyperinsulinaemia and insulin resistance) were more prevalent in the women and in urban residents; (iv) hyperinsulinaemia (20%) and insulin resistance (35%) were common in the population, and were associated, on regression analyses, to such other CHD risk factors as BP and body mass, particularly in women, suggesting, as in Caucasians, that insulin resistance could be an important index of CHD risk; and (v) the excess of multiple CHD risk factors in the women, is due at least in part, to their increased tendency to obesity (8%) and reduced physical activity (83%). This study concludes that: (i) despite the high prevalence of multiple risk factors in this population, CHD prevalence is low, indicating the supremacy of such major risk factors as diabetes and hyperlipidaemia (relatively uncommon here) in the development of CHD; and (ii) potentially the greatest CHD risk is in the elderly women especially if relatively overweight, physically inactive and resident in an urban centre. While further confirmatory studies are necessary in younger subjects and across societal socioeconomic strata, our results nonetheless suggest that attempts to maintain the CHD prevalence at low levels in this population should include efforts directed at reducing excess body weight particularly in women, and advice on maintenance of a traditional diet to keep lipid levels and diabetes prevalence low.

Study objective - to assess agreement between two Takeda UA-731 automatic blood pressure measuring devices (referred to as machines a and B) and two manual mercury sphygmomanometers, Design - a 'Y' connector attached each Takeda UA-731 to a manual mercury sphygmomanometer. Simultaneous measurements were made on adult subjects. Setting - a population based cardiovascular disease survey in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. Participants - Measurements on machine a were compared in 71 individuals (all women), and on machine B in 75 individuals (9 men, 66 women). The age range of subjects was 28 to 76 years and median ages were 59 years for machine a and 50 years for machine B. Main results - Blood pressure (mmHg) ranged from 72 to 212 systolic and 44 to 102 diastolic. Both Takedas gave significantly lower readings than the manual devices for systolic and diastolic pressures: differences were mean (SD: 95% CI) 3.7 mmHg (6.5: 2.2, 5.2) for machine a systolic, 2.3 mmHg (4.5: 1.3, 3.4) machine a diastolic; 1.8 mmHg (6.2: 0.4, 3.3) machine B systolic, and 1.8 (4.4: 0.8, 2.8) machine B diastolic. On the British Hypertension Society criteria, machine a was graded C on systolic measurements and B on diastolic; machine B was graded B on both systolic and diastolic measurements. Conclusions - the performance of these machines compares favourably with the Dinamap 8100, recently adopted for survey work by the Department of Health. The Takeda UA-731 looks promising for epidemiological survey work but before it can be fully recommended further evaluations are needed.

The aim was to establish whether risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) are positively and independently associated with fasting insulin and/or body mass and waist-hip ratio in healthy elderly Nigerian subjects. Fasting plasma glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, and basal insulin resistance (HOMA method) were measured in 500 healthy elderly (≤55 years) Nigerian volunteers (295 men, 205 women). Associations between blood pressure, triglycerides or cholesterol and fasting insulin, HOMA, body mass index (BMI) or waist-hip ratio were examined using linear regression. Age was controlled for in all analyses. In men, diastolic and systolic blood pressure were strongly associated with BMI, while there was no evidence of an independent relationship with fasting insulin or HOMA. Triglycerides were strongly associated with waist-hip ratio, with a weaker independent association with HOMA but not fasting insulin; fasting insulin and HOMA showed strong independent associations with total cholesterol. In women diastolic and systolic blood pressure were also strongly associated with BMI, but there was an independent relationship with fasting insulin for diastolic blood pressure and a less significant (p = 0.057) one for systolic blood pressure. Triglycerides were significantly associated with BMI but none of the other variables; there were no significant associations with cholesterol. There was no evidence of interaction between fasting insulin or HOMA and BMI or waist-hip ratio. The results suggest the hypotheses that in this population BMI or waist-hip ratio are stronger determinants of blood pressure and triglyceride levels than fasting insulin or HOMA, and that where insulin does play a role its effects are separate and additive.

The aim of this study was to determine the contribution of diabetes mellitus to all-cause mortality and diabetes mortality rates in adults 15 years and above living in one urban and two rural areas of Tanzania (Dar es Salaam, Hai and Morogoro Rural Districts). The three surveillance populations comprised 307,912 persons. Prospective monitoring of all deaths between 1 June 1992 and 31 May 1995 was carried out. Cause of death was determined by verbal 'autopsy' conducted with relatives of the deceased. In total, 4,299 deaths were recorded in children (aged

The aim of this study was to establish the importance of exercise capacity as a determinant of insulin sensitivity in the basal and insulin-stimulated states in healthy man independent of the potentially confounding effect of adiposity. Twenty-four healthy Caucasian men aged 23-39 years were studied. Adiposity was defined by the BMI and % fat mass (%FM) measured by bioelectrical impedance, and fat distribution was described by the waist-hip ratio (WHR). Homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) end the hyperinsulinaemic/euglycaemic clamp technique were used to assess insulin sensitivity in the basal (HOMA index) and insulin-stimulated (M value) states, respectively. Exercise capacity was assessed by a progressive exercise test to measure VO(2max). The relationships between the measures of insulin sensitivity and those of exercise capacity and adiposity were examined by multiple linear regression analysis. In the insulin-stimulated state, both VO(2max) (P=0.03) and BMI (P=0.04) were significant independent determinants of the M value. However, only the VO(2max) remained a significant predictor (P=0.04) following the inclusion of WHR in the analysis. In the basal state, both BMI (P=0.01) and %FM (P = 0.04) were significant determinants of HOMA independent of VO(2max), while there was no relationship between HOMA and VO(2max). In conclusion, exercise capacity, as assessed by the VO(2max), is an important determinant of insulin sensitivity in the insulin-stimulated state independent of adiposity, and should therefore be taken into account when insulin sensitivity is compared between subject groups.

Objective - to measure age and sex specific mortality in adults (15-59 years) in one urban and two rural areas of Tanzania. Design - Reporting of all deaths occurring between 1 June 1992 and 31 May 1995. Setting - Eight branches in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania's largest city), 59 villages in Morogoro rural district (a poor rural area), and 47 villages in Hai district (a more prosperous rural area). Subjects - 40 304 adults in Dar es Salaam, 69 964 in Hai, 50 465 in Morogoro rural. Main outcome measures - Mortality and probability of death between 15 and 59 years of age (45Q15). Results - During the three year observation period a total of 4929 deaths were recorded in adults aged 15-59 years in all areas. Crude mortalities ranged from 6.1/1000/year for women in Hai to 15.9/1000/year for men in Morogoro rural. Age specific mortalities were up to 43 times higher than rates in England and Wales. Rates were higher in men at all ages in the two rural areas except in the age group 25 to 29 years in Hai and 20 to 34 years in Morogoro rural. In Dar es Salaam rates in men were higher only in the 40 to 59 year age group. The probability of death before age 60 of a 15 year old man (45Q15) was 47% in Dar es Salaam, 37% in Hai, and 58% in Morogoro; for women these figures were 45%, 26%, and 48%, respectively. (The average 45Q15s for men and women in established market economies are 15% and 7%, respectively.) Conclusion - Survivors of childhood in Tanzania continue to show high rates of mortality throughout adult life. As the health of adults is essential for the wellbeing of young and old there is an urgent need to develop policies that deal with the causes of adult mortality.

The hypothesis that the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in people with diabetes is inversely related to socio-economic status was tested. Demographic and biochemical data were collected on 1246 patients, aged 20-69 years, attending a hospital diabetes clinic. This is estimated to represent between 71% and 78% of all people of this age with a diagnosis of diabetes in the health authority. In total, 296 people were classified as Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetic patients (age of onset

A substantial proportion of lower extremity amputations (LEAs), particularly in people with diabetes, are thought to be preventable by the provision of appropriate health care. Information on the incidence of LEAs which is accurate, up‐to‐date, and comparable cross‐sectionally and longitudinally is essential to guide and monitor interventions aimed at their prevention. Current information on the incidence of LEAs is limited and differences between studies in case definition, presentation of rates, level of ascertainment, and population age structure often make meaningful comparisons impossible. To remedy this situation the global LEA study has been established. The study is designed to compare the incidence of LEAs over time within and between communities across the world. The methodology includes adherence to a standard definition of LEA, standardized methods of data collection with built‐in quality control, and correction for under‐ascertainment of cases (using capture‐recapture methodology). Centres wishing to take part in the study must be able to identify a study population of at least 250000, have reasonably up‐to‐date population numbers by age and sex, and be prepared to stay in the study for at least 2 years. A study registration form (Appendix 1) is provided. 1995 Diabetes UK

The potential health gain from increased levels of cycling in Britain is large. This paperreviews current levels of bicycle ownership and use, and the factors which influence whether or not people choose to cycle in Britain. Cycle ownership is strongly associated with affluence and children. Males cycle more than females. Boys aged 11-15 years cycle the greatest number of miles per person per week, followed by men aged 16-59 years. Cycling to work is weakly associated with affluence. Modelling cycling to work patterns suggests that hilliness, traffic danger, rainfall and longer trip lengths are important deferrents to cycling. Cyclists identify cheapness, health, convenience and enjoyment as reasons for cycling. Non-cyclists identify danger, 'unpleasantness' (e.g. traffic fumes, weather), bike security and cycling not appealing as reasons for not cycling. Part of the lack of appeal of cycling reflects negative social attitudes towards cycling. Cycling has tended to be seen as a childhood activity and incompatible with an attractive and sophisticated image. Departments of Public Health Medicine and Health Promotion, in collaboration withother sectors, have an important role to play in promoting increased levels of cycling. © 1995 the Society of Public Health. All rights reserved.

A QUESTIONNAIRE survey of university students was undertaken in 1989 to investigate the determi nants of cycling and cycle helmet use. Women were less likely to cycle than men. The main reasons people gave for cycling were economy and con venience. The main reasons people gave for not cyc ling were danger and the risk of bike theft. Different attitudes to the appearance, practicality, and com fort of cycle helmets distinguished to some extent between cyclists who said they would use one regu larly if given a voucher to buy one, and those who would not. This paper suggests ways in which the public health benefits of cycling could be promoted on the basis of findings reported here. © 1992, Sage Publications. All rights reserved.

Preferential looking is the technique of choice for measuring visual acuity in infants and young children. Most workers agree that the toddler age group, 1 to 3 years, is the most difficult to lest. This is because of their short attention span and restlessness but mostly because they find the grating target used in the test, frankly boring. The concept of the vanishing optotype chart offers alternative test targets, while utilizing the technique of preferential looking. We have designed a lest which comprises a familiar shape (house, car etc.) on the upper or lower part of a neutral grey card. The shape is computer generated, and designed to fade completely when beyond the resolution limit. Acuity is determined by the width of the while lines making up the shape. As with conventional preferential looking, the observer notes the child's eye movements to determine the position of the target shape. Although picture naming is not required, the shapes help to maintain the child's interest in the test. The test is quick, and is successful with the toddler age group and older patients with intellectual impairment. Copyright © 1992, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved