. Background
. Mobility limitation in older age reduces quality of life, generates substantial health- and social-care costs, and increases mortality.
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. Objective
. The REtirement in ACTion (REACT) trial aimed to establish whether or not a community-based active ageing intervention could prevent decline in physical functioning in older adults already at increased risk of mobility limitation.
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. Design
. A multicentre, pragmatic, two-arm, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with parallel process and health economic evaluations.
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. Setting
. Urban and semi-rural locations across three sites in England.
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. Participants
. Physically frail or pre-frail older adults (aged ≥ 65 years; Short Physical Performance Battery score of 4–9). Recruitment was primarily via 35 primary care practices.
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. Interventions
. Participants were randomly assigned to receive brief advice (three healthy ageing education sessions) or a 12-month, group-based, multimodal exercise and behavioural maintenance programme delivered in fitness and community centres. Randomisation was stratified by site and used a minimisation algorithm to balance age, sex and Short Physical Performance Battery score. Data collection and analyses were blinded.
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. Main outcome measures
. The primary outcome was change in lower limb physical function (Short Physical Performance Battery score) at 24 months, analysed using an intention-to-treat analysis. The economic evaluation adopted the NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.
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. Results
. Between June 2016 and October 2017, 777 participants (mean age 77.6 years, standard deviation 6.8 years; 66% female; mean Short Physical Performance Battery score 7.37, standard deviation 1.56) were randomised to the intervention arm (n = 410) or the control arm (n = 367). Data collection was completed in October 2019. Primary outcome data at 24 months were provided by 628 (80.8%) participants. At the 24-month follow-up, the Short Physical Performance Battery score was significantly greater in the intervention arm (mean 8.08, standard deviation 2.87) than in the control arm (mean 7.59, standard deviation 2.61), with an adjusted mean difference of 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.06 to 0.92). The difference in lower limb function between intervention and control participants was clinically meaningful at both 12 and 24 months. Self-reported physical activity significantly increased in the intervention arm compared with the control arm, but this change was not observed in device-based physical activity data collected during the trial. One adverse event was related to the intervention. Attrition rates were low (19% at 24 months) and adherence was high. Engagement with the REACT intervention was associated with positive changes in exercise competence, relatedness and enjoyment and perceived physical, social and mental well-being benefits. The intervention plus usual care was cost-effective compared with care alone over the 2 years of REACT; the price year was 2019. In the base-case scenario, the intervention saved £103 per participant, with a quality-adjusted life-year gain of 0.04 (95% confidence interval 0.006 to 0.074) within the 2-year trial window. Lifetime horizon modelling estimated that further cost savings and quality-adjusted life-year gains were accrued up to 15 years post randomisation.
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. Conclusion
. A relatively low-resource, 1-year multimodal exercise and behavioural maintenance intervention can help older adults to retain physical functioning over a 24-month period. The results indicate that the well-established trajectory of declining physical functioning in older age is modifiable.
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. Limitations
. Participants were not blinded to study arm allocation. However, the primary outcome was independently assessed by blinded data collectors. The secondary outcome analyses were exploratory, with no adjustment for multiple testing, and should be interpreted accordingly.
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. Future work
. Following refinements guided by the process evaluation findings, the REACT intervention is suitable for large-scale implementation. Further research will optimise implementation of REACT at scale.
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. Trial registration
. This trial is registered as ISRCTN45627165.
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. Funding
. This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 10, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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BACKGROUND: Mobility limitations in older populations have a substantial impact on health outcomes, quality of life, and social care costs. The Retirement in Action (REACT) randomised controlled trial assessed a 12-month community-based group physical activity and behaviour maintenance intervention to help prevent decline in physical functioning in older adults at increased risk of mobility limitation. We aimed to do an economic evaluation of the REACT trial to investigate whether the intervention is cost-effective. METHODS: in this health economic evaluation, we did cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses of the REACT programme versus standard care on the basis of resource use, primary outcome, and health-related quality-of-life data measured in the REACT trial. We also developed a decision analytic Markov model that forecasts the mobility of recipients beyond the 24-month follow-up of the trial and translated this into future costs and potential benefit to health-related quality of life using the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective. Participants completed questionnaire booklets at baseline, and at 6, 12, and 24 months after randomisation, which included a resource use questionnaire and the EQ-5D-5L and 36-item short-form survey (SF-36) health-related quality-of-life instruments. The cost of delivering the intervention was estimated by identifying key resources, such as REACT session leader time, time of an individual to coordinate the programme, and venue hire. EQ-5D-5L and SF-36 responses were converted to preference-based utility values, which were used to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the 24-month trial follow-up using the area-under-the-curve method. We used generalised linear models to examine the effect of the REACT programme on costs and QALYs and adjust for baseline covariates. Costs and QALYs beyond 12 months were discounted at 3·5% per year. This is a pre-planned analysis of the REACT trial; the trial itself is registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN45627165). FINDINGS: the 12-month REACT programme was estimated to cost £622 per recipient to deliver. The most substantial cost components are the REACT session leader time (£309 per participant), venue hire (£109), and the REACT coordinator time (£80). The base-case analysis of the trial-based economic evaluation showed that reductions in health and social care usage due to the REACT programme could offset the REACT delivery costs (£3943 in the intervention group vs £4043 in the control group; difference: -£103 [95% CI -£695 to £489]) with a health benefit of 0·04 QALYs (0·009-0·071; 1·354 QALYs in the intervention group vs 1·314 QALYs in the control group) within the 24-month timeframe of the trial. INTERPRETATION: the REACT programme could be considered a cost-effective approach for improving the health-related quality of life of older adults at risk of mobility limitations. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research Programme.

INTRODUCTION: a mobile app, BlueIce, was codesigned with young people with a history of self-harm to provide them with more accessible and available evidence-based support at times of distress. A preliminary evaluation found that BlueIce was acceptable, safe and used by young people and helped to reduce self-harm. The present study is designed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adding BlueIce to usual Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service (CAMHS). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a single-blind, randomised controlled trial comparing usual CAMHS care with usual care plus BlueIce. A total of 138 adolescents aged 12-17 with current or a history of self-harm will be recruited through the Oxford Health National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust via their CAMHS clinician. The primary outcome is self-harm at 12 weeks assessed using the Risk Taking and Self-Harm Inventory for Adolescents. Secondary outcomes include mood, anxiety, hopelessness, general behaviour, sleep and impact on everyday life at 12 weeks and 6 months. Health-related quality of life and healthcare resource utilisation data will be collected at baseline, 12 weeks and 6 months. Postuse interviews at 12 weeks will determine the acceptability, safety and usability of BlueIce. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: the study was approved by the NHS South Central-Oxford B NHS Research Ethics Committee (19/SC/0212) and by the Health Research Authority (HRA) and Health and Care Research Wales. Findings will be disseminated in peer review open-access journals and at academic conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN10541045.

BACKGROUND: Social anxiety disorder (SAD) is common, typically starts in adolescence and has a low natural recovery rate. Existing psychological treatments for adolescent SAD are only moderately effective. It is possible that recovery rates for adolescents could be substantially improved by adapting a psychological therapy that is highly effective among adults with SAD. OBJECTIVES: to train child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) therapists to deliver cognitive therapy for SAD in adolescents (CT-SAD-A) and assess therapist competence. To estimate the costs to the NHS of training therapists to deliver CT-SAD-A and the mean cost per adolescent treated. To examine the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to compare CT-SAD-A with the general form of cognitive-behavioural therapy that is more commonly used. DESIGN: During the training phase of the study, it became clear that the RCT would not be feasible because of high staff turnover and unfilled posts within CAMHS and changes in the nature of referrals, which meant that few young people with primary SAD were accessing some of the participating services. The study design was altered to comprise the following: a training case series of CT-SAD-A delivered in routine CAMHS, an estimate of the cost to the NHS of training therapists to deliver CT-SAD-A and of the mean cost per adolescent treated, and qualitative interviews with participating young people, parents, therapists and service managers/leads. SETTING: Five CAMHS teams within Berkshire Healthcare and Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trusts. PARTICIPANTS: Eight therapists received training in CT-SAD-A. Twelve young people received CT-SAD-A, delivered by six therapists. Six young people, six parents, seven therapists and three managers participated in qualitative interviews. INTERVENTIONS: Cognitive therapy for social anxiety disorder in adolescents (CT-SAD-A). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Measured outcomes included social anxiety symptoms and diagnostic status, comorbid symptoms of anxiety and depression, social and general functioning, concentration in class and treatment acceptability. Patient level utilisation of the intervention was collected using clinicians' logs. RESULTS: Nine out of 12 participants achieved good outcomes across measures (r ≥ 0.60 across social anxiety measures). The estimated cost of delivering CT-SAD-A was £1861 (standard deviation £358) per person. Qualitative interviews indicated that the treatment was acceptable to young people, parents and therapists, but therapists and managers experienced challenges when implementing the training and treatment within the current CAMHS context. LIMITATIONS: Findings were based on a small, homogeneous sample and there was no comparison arm. CONCLUSIONS: CT-SAD-A is a promising treatment for young people with SAD, but the current CAMHS context presents challenges for its implementation. FUTURE WORK: Further work is needed to ensure that CAMHS can incorporate and test CT-SAD-A. Alternatively, CT-SAD-A should be delivered and tested in other settings that are better configured to treat young people whose lives are held back by SAD. The new schools Mental Health Support Teams envisaged in the 2017 Children's Mental Health Green Paper may provide such an opportunity. FUNDING: the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme. Individual funding was also provided for Cathy Creswell, David M Clark and Eleanor Leigh as follows: NIHR Research Professorship (Cathy Creswell); Wellcome Senior Investigator Award (Anke Ehlers and David M Clark); and the Wellcome Clinical Research Training Fellowship (Eleanor Leigh).

Ukraine has a developing and expanding system of general practice, but only a rudimentary academic primary care system and no research skills training for general practitioners (GPs). We designed and evaluated a transnational primary care research skills course for Ukrainian GPs.The ABC course is series of three 2-day workshops, designed to teach the basics of primary care research to early-career Ukrainian GPs. It was delivered by Ukrainian and British experts, using innovative, interactive teaching methods. Evaluation measures included participants' assessment of their research abilities, and changes in their attitudes, intentions and actions regarding their research practice.Seventeen Ukrainian GPs took part. There was a 1.32-point increase in research ability self-assessment 5-point Likert scores, with particular increases in literature review and budgeting abilities. Scores for research attitudes, intentions and actions increased by 4.0%, though limited by a ceiling effect. Many participants subsequently developed their own research projects, and some set up primary care research skills courses in their own Ukrainian academic organisations.The course resulted in increased levels of self-confidence and ability to plan primary care research, with improvements in participants' stages of change. It sets out a model for providing and evaluating innovative educational interventions in post-soviet countries, and gives them a basis for high-quality primary care research.

OBJECTIVE: to undertake meta-analysis and compare treatment effects estimated by the intention-to-treat (ITT) method and per-protocol (PP) method in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). PP excludes trial participants who are non-adherent to trial protocol in terms of eligibility, interventions, or outcome assessment. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Five high impact journals were searched for all RCTs published between July 2017 to June 2019. Primary outcome was a pooled estimate that quantified the difference between the treatment effects estimated by the two methods. Results are presented as ratio of odds ratios (ROR). Meta-regression was used to explore the association between level of trial protocol non-adherence and treatment effect. Sensitivity analyses compared results with varying within-study correlations and across various study characteristics. RESULTS: Random-effects meta-analysis (N = 156) showed that PP estimates were on average 2% greater compared to the ITT estimates (ROR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.04, P = 0.03). The divergence further increased with higher degree of protocol non-adherence. Sensitivity analyses reassured consistent results with various within-study correlations and across various study characteristics. CONCLUSION: There was evidence of larger treatment effect with PP compared to ITT analysis. PP analysis should not be used to assess the impact of protocol non-adherence in RCTs. Instead, in addition to ITT, investigators should consider randomization based casual method such as Complier Average Causal Effect (CACE).

BACKGROUND: Effective treatment of longstanding Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) is a challenge, as causal mechanisms remain elusive. People with CRPS frequently report distorted subjective perceptions of their affected limb. Evidence of pain reduction when the affected limb is visually altered in size suggests that visual illusions used to target central processing could restore coherence of this disrupted limb representation. We hypothesized that using virtual reality that alters hand image to match the patient's desired hand appearance would improve body perception disturbance and pain. Also, repeated exposure would maintain any therapeutic effect. METHODS: a blinded randomized controlled trial of 45 participants with refractory upper-limb CRPS and body perception disturbance (BPD) viewed a digital image of their affected hand for 1 min. The image was digitally altered according to the patient's description of how they desired their hand to look in the experimental group and unaltered in the control group. BPD and pain were measured pre- and post-intervention. A subgroup was followed up 2 weeks after a course of repeated interventions. RESULTS: BPD (mean-6, ±SD 7.9, p = 0.036, effect size [ES] = 0.6) and pain intensity (mean-0.43, ±SD 1.3, p = 0.047, ES = 0.5) reduced in 23 participants after single exposure compared to controls (n = 22). At follow-up, the subgroup (experimental n = 21; control n = 18) showed sustained pain reduction only (p = 0.037, ±SD 1.9, ES = 0.7), with an overall 1.2 decrease on an 11-point scale. CONCLUSIONS: Visually changing the CRPS hand to a desired appearance modulates BPD and pain suggesting therapeutic potential for those with refractory CRPS. Further research to optimize this therapeutic effect is required. SIGNIFICANCE: Visual bodily illusions that change the shape and appearance of the painful CRPS hand to that desired by the patient result in a rapid amelioration of pain and body perception disturbance in people with longstanding CRPS. These findings highlight the future potential of this drug-free approach in the treatment of refractory CRPS.

BACKGROUND: Colles' type fractures of the distal radius are one of the most commonly manipulated fractures in the ED. Local audit data suggest that a high proportion of these injuries undergo subsequent surgical fixation. If widespread, this could represent a potential burden on patients and the NHS worthy of further research. The aims of this study were to estimate the rate of surgical fixation of Colles' type distal radial fractures after ED fracture manipulation and explore variations in their management in UK EDs. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre observational study in 16 EDs in the UK from 4 February 2019 to 31 March 2019. All adult patients with a Colles' fracture who underwent fracture manipulation in the ED were included. Patients who could not be followed up and those with volar displaced fractures were excluded. We measured the rate of wrist fracture surgery at 6 weeks, patient demographics and variations in anaesthetic technique used. RESULTS: During the study period, 328 adult patients attended the participating EDs with a distal radial fracture. of these, 83 patients underwent fracture manipulation in the ED and were eligible for the study. Their mean age (SD) was 65.3 (17.0) years, 84.3% were female and the most common method of anaesthesia used was haematoma block (38.6%). 34 (41.0%, 95 % CI 30.3 to 52.3) patients had subsequent surgical fixation of their fracture. Younger age was associated with higher rates of surgical fixation but ED anaesthetic technique did not affect the subsequent need for surgery in this sample. CONCLUSION: Subsequent surgical fixation was carried out in 41% of patients who underwent manipulation of Colles' type wrist fractures in this cohort. This merits further research and represents a potential target to rationalise repeat procedures.

OBJECTIVES: Cancer survival rates vary widely between European countries, with differences in timeliness of diagnosis thought to be one key reason. There is little evidence on the way in which different healthcare systems influence primary care practitioners' (PCPs) referral decisions in patients who could have cancer.This study aimed to explore PCPs' diagnostic actions (whether or not they perform a key diagnostic test and/or refer to a specialist) in patients with symptoms that could be due to cancer and how they vary across European countries. DESIGN: a primary care survey. PCPs were given vignettes describing patients with symptoms that could indicate cancer and asked how they would manage these patients. The likelihood of taking immediate diagnostic action (a diagnostic test and/or referral) in the different participating countries was analysed. Comparisons between the likelihood of taking immediate diagnostic action and physician characteristics were calculated. SETTING: Centres in 20 European countries with widely varying cancer survival rates. PARTICIPANTS: a total of 2086 PCPs answered the survey question, with a median of 72 PCPs per country. RESULTS: PCPs' likelihood of immediate diagnostic action at the first consultation varied from 50% to 82% between countries. PCPs who were more experienced were more likely to take immediate diagnostic action than their peers. CONCLUSION: When given vignettes of patients with a low but significant possibility of cancer, more than half of PCPs across Europe would take diagnostic action, most often by ordering diagnostic tests. However, there are substantial between-country variations.

Background Opioid substitution therapy involves prescribing of medical substitutes like methadone and buprenorphine to patients who are addicted to opioids. The majority of opioid substitution therapy dispensing in the UK is done by community pharmacists and they often see the patients on daily basis. It is unknown to what extent community pharmacists implement the policy to prevent overdose in patients receiving such treatment. Objective to explore what UK community pharmacists think about their role in preventing opium substitution-related deaths, their understanding of the risks associated with this substitution therapy and their views on what else community pharmacists could do to reduce such deaths. Setting Twenty four community pharmacists from two areas in UK (Worcestershire and Bath and North East Somerset). Method  Between January and March 2013, community pharmacists providing opoin substitution therapy were interviewed in their pharmacy, using semi-structured interviews. Interpretative Phenomenology Analysis was used to analyse the data. Main outcome measure Thematically organised description of professional practice as reported by the participants against the clinical/practice guidance for opioid substitution therapy in UK. Results While participants felt their role to be essential in providing the service, they did not feel part of an integrated system. Participants' ability to act in risk situations was affected by their knowledge, confidence in intervening in such situation, as well as the support they receive in providing the service. Conclusion Participants reported large differences in how 'opioid substitution therapy' services are provided in community pharmacy. Lack of knowledge among some pharmacists and lack of support in providing the service resulted in some patients at high risk not having their risks acted upon.

BACKGROUND: National European cancer survival rates vary widely. Prolonged diagnostic intervals are thought to be a key factor in explaining these variations. Primary care practitioners (PCPs) frequently play a crucial role during initial cancer diagnosis; their knowledge could be used to improve the planning of more effective approaches to earlier cancer diagnosis. OBJECTIVES: This study sought the views of PCPs from across Europe on how they thought the timeliness of cancer diagnosis could be improved. DESIGN: in an online survey, a final open-ended question asked PCPs how they thought the speed of diagnosis of cancer in primary care could be improved. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. SETTING: a primary care study, with participating centres in 20 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: a total of 1352 PCPs answered the final survey question, with a median of 48 per country. RESULTS: the main themes identified were: patient-related factors, including health education; care provider-related factors, including continuing medical education; improving communication and interprofessional partnership, particularly between primary and secondary care; factors relating to health system organisation and policies, including improving access to healthcare; easier primary care access to diagnostic tests; and use of information technology. Re-allocation of funding to support timely diagnosis was seen as an issue affecting all of these. CONCLUSIONS: to achieve more timely cancer diagnosis, health systems need to facilitate earlier patient presentation through education and better access to care, have well-educated clinicians with good access to investigations and better information technology, and adequate primary care cancer diagnostic pathway funding.

Epidemiological studies have revealed a complex association between weather and dengue transmission. Our aim is the development of a Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever via a Generalized Additive mixed model (GAMM). The structure is based on unknown smoother functions for climatic and a set of non-climatic covariates. All the climatic covariates were found statistically significant with optimal lagged effect and the smoothed curves fairly captured the real dynamic on dengue fever. It was also found that critical levels of dengue cases were reached with temperature between 26 °C and 30 °C. The findings also revealed for the first time that the El Niño phenomenon fluctuating between 26.5 °C and 28.0 °C had the worse impact on dengue transmission. This study brings together a large dataset from different sources including Ministry of Health from Venezuela. It was also benefited from a remote satellite climatic data provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Anaesthetists experience unique stressors, and recent evidence suggests a high prevalence of stress and burnout in trainee anaesthetists. There has been no in-depth qualitative analysis to explore this further. We conducted semi-structured interviews to explore contributory and potentially protective factors in the development of perceived stress, burnout, depression and low work satisfaction. We sampled purposively among participants in the Satisfaction and Wellbeing in Anaesthetic Training study, reaching data saturation at 12 interviews. Thematic analysis identified three overarching themes: factors enabling work satisfaction; stressors of being an anaesthetic trainee; and suggestions for improving working conditions. Factors enabling work satisfaction were patient contact; the privilege of enabling good patient outcomes; and strong support at home and work. Stressors were demanding non-clinical work-loads; exhaustion from multiple commitments; a 'love/hate' relationship, as trainees value clinical work but find the training burden immense; feeling 'on edge', even unsafe at work; and the changing way society sees doctors. Nearly all trainees discussed feeling some levels of burnout (which were high and distressing for some) and also high levels of perceived stress. However, trainees also experienced distinct elements of work satisfaction and support. Suggested recommendations for improvement included: allowing contracted hours for non-clinical work; individuals taking responsibility for self-care in and out of work; cultural acceptance that doctors can struggle; and embedding wellbeing support more deeply in organisations and the specialty. Our study provides a foundation for further work to inform organisational and cultural changes, to help translate anaesthetic trainees' passion for their work into a manageable and satisfactory career.

There is growing evidence that anaesthetic trainees experience, and may be particularly susceptible to, high levels of work stress, burnout and depression. This is concern for the safety and wellbeing of these doctors and for the patients they treat. To date, there has been no in-depth evaluation of these issues among UK anaesthetic trainees to examine which groups may be most affected, and to identify the professional and personal factors with which they are associated. We conducted an anonymous electronic survey to determine the prevalence of perceived stress, risk of burnout/depression and work satisfaction among anaesthetic trainees within South-West England and Wales, and explored in detail the influence of key baseline characteristics, lifestyle and anaesthetic training variables. We identified a denominator of 619 eligible participants and received 397 responses, a response rate of 64%. We observed a high prevalence of perceived stress; 37% (95%CI 32-42%), burnout risk 25% (21-29%) and depression risk 18% (15-23%), and found that these issues frequently co-exist. Having no children, > 3 days sickness absence in the previous year, ≤ 1 h.week-1 of exercise and > 7.5 h.week-1 of additional non-clinical work were independant predictors of negative psychological outcomes. Although female respondents reported higher stress, burnout risk was more likely in male respondents. This information could help in the identification of at-risk groups as well as informing ways to support these groups and to influence resource and intervention design. Targeted interventions, such as modification of exercise behaviour and methods of reducing stressors relating to non-clinical workloads, warrant further research.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol Screening and Brief Intervention (ASBI) helps reduce risky drinking in adults, but less is known about its effectiveness with young people. This article explores implementation of DrinkThink, an ASBI co-produced with young people, by health, youth and social care professionals trained in its delivery. METHODS: a qualitative evaluation was conducted using focus groups with 33 staff trained to deliver DrinkThink, and eight interviews with trained participants and service managers. These were recorded, transcribed and a thematic analysis undertaken. RESULTS: DrinkThink was not delivered fully by health, youth or social care agencies. The reasons for this varied by setting but included: the training staff received, a working culture that was ill-suited to the intervention, staff attitudes towards alcohol which prioritized other health problems presented by young people, over alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation was limited because staff had not been involved in the design and planning of DrinkThink. Staffs' perceptions of alcohol problems in young people and the diverse cultures in which they work were subsequently not accounted for in the design. Co-producing youth focused ASBIs with the professionals expected to deliver them, and the young people whom they target, may ensure greater success in integrating them into working practice.

BACKGROUND: the REtirement in ACTion (REACT) study is a multi-centre, pragmatic, two-arm, parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT) with an internal pilot phase. It aims to test the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a community, group-based physical activity intervention for reducing, or reversing, the progression of functional limitations in older people who are at high risk of mobility-related disability. METHODS/DESIGN: a sample of 768 sedentary, community-dwelling, older people aged 65 years and over with functional limitations, but who are still ambulatory (scores between 4 and 9 out of 12 in the Short Physical Performance Battery test (SPPB)) will be randomised to receive either the REACT intervention, delivered over a period of 12 months by trained facilitators, or a minimal control intervention. The REACT study incorporates comprehensive process and economic evaluation and a nested sub-study which will test the hypothesis that the REACT intervention will slow the rate of brain atrophy and of decline in cognitive function assessed using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Outcome data will be collected at baseline, 6, 12 and 24 months for the main study, with MRI sub-study data collected at baseline, 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome analysis (SPPB score at 24 months) will be undertaken blinded to group allocation. Primary comparative analyses will be on an intention-to-treat (ITT) basis with due emphasis placed on confidence intervals. DISCUSSION: REACT represents the first large-scale, pragmatic, community-based trial in the UK to target the non-disabled but high-risk segment of the older population with an intervention to reduce mobility-related disability. A programme that can successfully engage this population in sufficient activity to improve strength, aerobic capacity, coordination and balance would have a major impact on sustaining health and independence. REACT is also the first study of its kind to conduct a full economic and comprehensive process evaluation alongside the RCT. If effective and cost-effective, the REACT intervention has strong potential to be implemented widely in the UK and elsewhere. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ID: ISRCTN45627165. Retrospectively registered on 13 June 2016. Trial sponsor: University of Bath. Protocol Version 1.5.

Background the Approaches and Study Skills Inventory for Students (ASSIST) questionnaire assesses whether learners prefer a deep, strategic or surface approach to learning. This study aimed to establish the effect of time since qualification, gender and work role on ASSIST scores of General Practitioners (GPs) and GP Specialist Trainees (GPSTs). Methods an anonymous online questionnaire with demographic questions and the ASSIST survey was completed by 1005 GPs and GPSTs from across the United Kingdom. Results of the 544 GPs and 461 GPSTs completing the survey, 96.5% preferred a deep and/or strategic approach to learning. There was a significant increase in the preference for a deep approach with time from graduation and significantly less preference for a surface approach. There was no significant change in any of the scores over the GPST years. Men had significantly higher scores for a deep approach than women. Conclusions GPs and GPSTs prefer deep and strategic approaches to a surface approach. While higher levels of GP experience are associated with a higher deep approach score and a lower surface approach score, this change is not seen during progression through GP training. Men have higher scores for a deep approach than women.

OBJECTIVES: Cancer survival and stage of disease at diagnosis and treatment vary widely across Europe. These differences may be partly due to variations in access to investigations and specialists. However, evidence to explain how different national health systems influence primary care practitioners' (PCPs') referral decisions is lacking.This study analyses health system factors potentially influencing PCPs' referral decision-making when consulting with patients who may have cancer, and how these vary between European countries. DESIGN: Based on a content-validity consensus, a list of 45 items relating to a PCP's decisions to refer patients with potential cancer symptoms for further investigation was reduced to 20 items. An online questionnaire with the 20 items was answered by PCPs on a five-point Likert scale, indicating how much each item affected their own decision-making in patients that could have cancer. An exploratory factor analysis identified the factors underlying PCPs' referral decision-making. SETTING: a primary care study; 25 participating centres in 20 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 1830 PCPs completed the survey. The median response rate for participating centres was 20.7%. OUTCOME MEASURES: the factors derived from items related to PCPs' referral decision-making. Mean factor scores were produced for each country, allowing comparisons. RESULTS: Factor analysis identified five underlying factors: PCPs' ability to refer; degree of direct patient access to secondary care; PCPs' perceptions of being under pressure; expectations of PCPs' role; and extent to which PCPs believe that quality comes before cost in their health systems. These accounted for 47.4% of the observed variance between individual responses. CONCLUSIONS: Five healthcare system factors influencing PCPs' referral decision-making in 20 European countries were identified. The factors varied considerably between European countries. Knowledge of these factors could assist development of health service policies to produce better cancer outcomes, and inform future research to compare national cancer diagnostic pathways and outcomes.

AIMS: with regards to insulin initiation in Barbados we explored primary care doctor (PCD) perception, healthcare system factors and predictors of PCD reluctance to initiate insulin. METHODS: PCDs completed a questionnaire based on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and a reluctance to initiate insulin scale. Using linear regression, we explored the association between TPB domains and the reluctance to initiate insulin scale. RESULTS: of 161 PCDs, 70% responded (75 private and 37 public sector). The majority felt initiating insulin was uncomplicated (68%) and there was benefit if used before complications developed (68%), but would not use it until absolutely necessary (58%). More private than public sector PCDs (p

OBJECTIVES: a prospective, double blind, randomised, placebo controlled trial over 2 years was performed to test the efficacy of alendronate, an oral aminobisphosphonate, in improving symptoms and arrest disease progression in patients with mild to severe ankylosing spondylitis (AS). METHODS: 180 patients with AS were randomised to receive weekly alendronate 70 mg or placebo (1:1 randomisation). BAS-G was the primary outcome measure with Bath indices as secondary outcomes. Vertebral x-rays were performed at 0 and 24 months. Biomarkers (including CRP, IL-1beta, IL6, VEGF, MMP-1, and MMP-3) were collected during the first 12 months. RESULTS: There was no significant difference between the placebo and treatment groups in any of the recorded outcomes over the 2 years including clinical indices, biomarkers, and radiology. The change in BAS-G, the primary outcome measure, was -0.21 for the treatment group and -0.42 for the placebo group p=0.57. Change in all other clinical outcome measures were also non-significant; BASDAI p=0.86, BASFI p=0.37, BASMI p=0.021. Sub-group analysis of those subjects with a baseline BASDAI >4 were also non-significant. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective study demonstrates that alendronate 70mg weekly for 2 years was no more efficacious than placebo in improving clinical or laboratory measures of disease activity or measures of physical impact in subjects with mild to severe active AS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ID SRCTN12308164, registered on 15.12.2015.

BACKGROUND: it is known that many trainee doctors around the world experience work satisfaction but also considerable work stress in the training period. Such stress seems to be linked to multiple factors including workload, level of support and growing cultural inculcation into unwillingness to show any personal or professional weakness. In the United Kingdom, junior doctors are qualified medical practitioners who have gained a degree in Medicine and are now working while training to become a specialist (consultant) or a general practitioner. The period of medical training can be particularly stressful for some UK junior doctors, in common with their counterparts in other countries. UK Postgraduate Medical Deaneries provide support for those who need it via Professional Support Units (PSUs); however little is known about the perceptions and experiences of the doctors who access and utilise this support. This study aimed to generate qualitative insight into how the (PSU) provided by one UK Deanery is experienced by the trainees who accessed it. We aimed to investigate whether such experience intersects with the progressive socialisation of trainee doctors into the notion that doctors do not get ill. METHODS: Through in-depth telephone interviews with eight female junior doctors, we explored the benefits and problems associated with using a PSU with reference to the formation of trainee doctors' professional identities, and conducted a thematic analysis. RESULTS: Themes identified illustrate the process of accepting, accessing and benefiting from PSU support. These are: Medical identity intact (it will never happen to me); Denial of disrupted medical identity; Being on the edge: accepting help; Role of PSU in 'recovery' process; Repaired identity / coming back from the edge; Different ways to be a doctor. The gendered sample occurred simply as it was females who responded to study invitations. Whilst we present some related aspects (such as "manning up" as part of keeping going), analyses of this small sample showed that medical identity as a doctor in training was more salient than a gendered experience of help seeking in this study. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the initial reluctance of female junior doctors to seek help from the PSU, as acknowledging their own difficulties spoiled their identity as a competent doctor. However, once engaged with the PSU, the findings exemplify its role in repairing medical identity, by offering different and acceptable ways to be a doctor. We interpret these findings within Goffman's theoretical framework of stigma conferring a spoiled identity on recipients, and how this may then be repaired. Reducing the stigma attached to initial help-seeking among junior doctors is crucial to increase ease of access to the PSU and to improve the experiences of doctors who encounter challenges during their training.

AIM: the purpose of this study was to document in people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Barbados, attitudes and beliefs that may result in psychological insulin resistance. METHODS: a representative, population-based, sample of 175 eligible people with T2DM 25 years of age and over was surveyed by telephone. The 20-item insulin treatment appraisal scale (ITAS) was administered (score range 20 to 100 for positive to negative perceptions). RESULTS: 117 people participated (67% response rate, 32% male, mean age 66 years, 90% Black, 22% on insulin). of non-responders, 52 were not contactable and 6 were difficult to communicate with. Negative perceptions about insulin use included - meant a worsening of diabetes (68%), would worry family (63%), feared self-injection (58%), meant a failure in self-management (57%), injections were painful (54%), would be seen as being sicker (46%), increased hypoglycaemia risk (38%), required effort (34%), causes weight gain (27%), causes a deterioration in health (14%), and would have to give up enjoyable activities (10%). Positive perceptions were - helps good glycaemic control (78%), would prevent complications (61%) and improves health (58%). Mean total ITAS score (61.6, SD = 7.7) was lower for those on insulin compared to those not on insulin (53.7 vs. 63.8, p 

BACKGROUND: in the UK, evidence of written reflection is part of licensing and revalidation for general practitioners (GPs). However, there is little evidence of specific benefits compared to other forms of reflective practice. AIM: to seek GPs' and general practice (GP) trainees' views on the role of written reflection in learning and assessment. DESIGN AND SETTING: an online survey of 1005 GPs and GP trainees (GPTs) in the UK. METHOD: an anonymous questionnaire containing 38 attitudinal items was administered. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse Likert scale responses, thematic analysis for free-text responses. RESULTS: in total 544 GPs and 461 GPTs completed the survey, with 842 (83.8%) agreeing they find verbal reflection with a colleague more useful than written reflection. Three quarters disagreed that written reflection is a way of identifying poorly performing GPs. Over 70% of respondents stated that summative, written reflection is a time-consuming, box-ticking exercise which distracts from other learning. They question its validity as part of assessment and state that its use may contribute to current difficulties with recruitment and retention to GP. CONCLUSIONS: for many GPs, written reflection is an onerous process rather than beneficial to their learning, indicating its continued use in assessment needs to be critically examined.

BACKGROUND: Evaluations of school-based anxiety prevention programmes have reported improvements in psychological functioning although little is known about their effect upon educational outcomes. METHODS: One thousand three hundred and sixty-two children from 40 primary schools in England took part in the randomised controlled trial, Preventing Anxiety in Children through Education in Schools. The trial investigated the effectiveness of a universal school-based cognitive behaviour therapy prevention programme, FRIENDS, delivered by health care staff or school staff compared with usual personal, social, health and education (PSHE) lessons. Self-report psychological outcomes and educational attainment on national standardised attainment tests in reading, writing and maths were collected 12 months postintervention. Analysis was performed at individual level using multivariable mixed effect models controlling for gender, type of intervention and school effect. Registered trial: ISRCTN: 23563048. RESULTS: at 12 months, anxiety reduced in the health-led FRIENDS group compared to school-led FRIENDS and PSHE. There were no between-group differences in academic performance regardless of gender, deprivation, ethnicity and additional educational needs. CONCLUSIONS: School-based mental health interventions should assess psychological and educational outcomes. Further research should directly compare the effects of interventions led by health and school staff.

BACKGROUND: the insertion of grommets (also known as ventilation or tympanostomy tubes) is one of the most common surgical procedures performed on children. Postoperative otorrhoea (discharge) is the most common complication with a reported incidence ranging from 10% to 50%. In the UK, many ENT surgeons treat with topical antibiotics/steroid combinations, but general practitioners, mainly through fears of ototoxicity, are unlikely to prescribe these and choose systemic broad-spectrum antibiotics. OBJECTIVES: 1. To identify the most effective non-surgical management of discharge from ears with grommets in place.2. To identify the risks of non-surgical management for this condition (e.g. ototoxicity), and to set benefits of treatment against these risks. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Ear, Nose and Throat Disorders Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library, Issue 1, 2005), MEDLINE (1966 to 2005) and EMBASE (1974 to 2005). We also searched the CINAHL, AMED, LILACS, ISI WEB OF KNOWLEDGE, ISI PROCEEDINGS, mRCT, NNR, ZETOC, KOREAMED, CSA, MEDCARIB, INDMED and SAMED databases. The date of the last search was February 2005. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials of adults or children, with any type of grommet and an ear with discharge were included. The trials compared treatment with placebo or one treatment with another. The primary outcome measure was the duration of the discharge. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: the trials were selected independently according to the above criteria by the four reviewers. Differences in opinion over the inclusion of studies were resolved by discussion. The studies were graded using the CASP critical appraisal tool. Analyses were based on the presence of discharge seven days from the onset of treatment. MAIN RESULTS: There was very little good quality evidence. Four studies were included, all of them investigating different interventions and therefore a meta-analysis was not possible.Only one study demonstrated a significant difference. Oral amoxicillin clavulanate was compared to placebo in 79 patients. The odds of having a discharge persisting eight days after starting treatment was 0.19 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.49). The number needed to treat to achieve that benefit is 2.5. Participants in both arms of this study also received daily aural toilet. The results will therefore not be applicable to most settings including primary care. No significant benefit was shown in the two studies investigating steroids (oral prednisolone with oral amoxicillin clavulanate and topical dexamethasone with topical ciprofloxacin ear drops), or the one study comparing an antibiotic-steroid combination (Otosporin®) drops versus spray (Otomize®) (although more patients preferred the spray form). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: the authors of this review have been unable to identify the most effective intervention or to assess the associated risks. Research is urgently needed into the effectiveness of oral versus topical antibiotics in this group of patients. Clinicians considering antibiotic treatment need to balance any potential benefit against the risks of side effects and antibiotic resistance.

PURPOSE: in order to locally validate the technique, a retrospective review of a cohort of randomly selected single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) bone scans reconstructed with ordered subsets expectation maximization (OSEM) and Evolution for Bone was undertaken. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty consecutive bone SPECT patient data sets (17 spine, nine pelvis, and four spine and pelvis) were chosen. Poisson resampling was used to simulate reduced count data at 50, 75, and 100% of the original number of counts. Evolution for Bone applied resolution recovery to the reduced count images. All images were compared with the original OSEM images, currently used as the standard for clinical use. A qualitative blinded assessment was made by two independent observers, who assessed for noise, contrast, and resolution. RESULTS: Both radiologists saw an improvement in resolution (P = 0.776), noise (P = 0.007), and image quality with all data sets, compared with images processed purely with OSEM and viewed in Volumetrix. However, they completely disagreed on contrast, as the two radiologists scored contrast differently; however, the results are understandable. CONCLUSION: Images with 50, 75, and 100% of the original counts viewed using Evolution for Bone have improved image quality compared with images processed purely with OSEM and viewed in Volumetrix. Evolution for Bone therefore has great potential in departments for reducing either patient doses, waiting lists, or both.

UNLABELLED: Aim the aims of this study were twofold: (a) to explore whether specific components of shared decision making were present in consultations involving nurse prescribers (NPs), pharmacist prescribers (PPs) and general practitioners (GPs) and (b) to relate these to self-reported patient outcomes including satisfaction, adherence and patient perceptions of practitioner empathy. BACKGROUND: There are a range of ways for defining and measuring the process of concordance, or shared decision making as it relates to decisions about medicines. As a result, demonstrating a convincing link between shared decision making and patient benefit is challenging. In the United Kingdom, nurses and pharmacists can now take on a prescribing role, engaging in shared decision making. Given the different professional backgrounds of GPs, NPs and PPs, this study sought to explore the process of shared decision making across these three prescriber groups. METHODS: Analysis of audio-recordings of consultations in primary care in South England between patients and GPs, NPs and PPs. Analysis of patient questionnaires completed post consultation. Findings a total of 532 consultations were audio-recorded with 20 GPs, 19 NPs and 12 PPs. Prescribing decisions occurred in 421 (79%). Patients were given treatment options in 21% (102/482) of decisions, the prescriber elicited the patient's treatment preference in 18% (88/482) and the patient expressed a treatment preference in 24% (118/482) of decisions. PPs were more likely to ask for the patient's preference about their treatment regimen (χ 2=6.6, P=0.036, Cramer's V=0.12) than either NPs or GPs. of the 275 patient questionnaires, 192(70%) could be matched with a prescribing decision. NP patients had higher satisfaction levels than patients of GPs or PPs. More time describing treatment options was associated with increased satisfaction, adherence and greater perceived practitioner empathy. While defining, measuring and enabling the process of shared decision making remains challenging, it may have patient benefit.

BackgroundProcess evaluation is important for improving theories of behavior change and behavioral intervention methods. The present study reports on the process outcomes of a pilot test of the theoretical model (the Process Model for Lifestyle Behavior Change; PMLBC) underpinning an evidence-informed, theory-driven, group-based intervention designed to promote healthy eating and physical activity for people with high cardiovascular risk.Methods108 people at high risk of diabetes or heart disease were randomized to a group-based weight management intervention targeting diet and physical activity, or to usual care. The intervention comprised nine group based sessions designed to promote motivation, social support, self-regulation and understanding of the behavior change process. Weight loss, diet, physical activity and theoretically defined mediators of change were measured pre-intervention, and after four and 12?months.ResultsThe intervention resulted in significant improvements in fiber intake (M between-group difference?=?5.7?g/day, p?

BACKGROUND: in Britain, the tobacco industry segments cigarettes into four price categories-premium, mid-price, economy and ultra-low-price (ULP). Our previous work shows that tobacco companies have kept ULP prices stable in real terms. Roll your own (RYO) tobacco remains cheaper still. METHODS: Analysis of 2001-08 General Household Survey data to examine trends in use of these cheap products and, using logistic regression, the profile of users of these products. RESULTS: Among smokers, the proportion using cheap products (economy, ULP and RYO combined) increased significantly in almost all age groups and geographic areas. Increases were most marked in under 24 year olds, 76% of whom smoked cheap cigarettes by 2008. All cheap products were more commonly used in lower socio-economic groups. Men and younger smokers were more likely to smoke RYO while women smoked economy brands. Smokers outside London and the South East of England were more likely to smoke some form of cheap tobacco even once socio-economic differences were accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: This paper demonstrates that cheap tobacco use is increasing among young and disadvantaged smokers compromising declines in population smoking prevalence. Thus, tobacco industry pricing appears to play a key role in explaining smoking patterns and inequalities in smoking.

Background: in the UK, thousands of people with high cardiovascular risk are being identified by a national risk-assessment programme (NHS Health Checks). Waste the Waist is an evidence-informed, theory-driven (modified Health Action Process Approach), group-based intervention designed to promote healthy eating and physical activity for people with high cardiovascular risk. This pilot randomised controlled trial aimed to assess the feasibility of delivering the Waste the Waist intervention in UK primary care and of conducting a full-scale randomised controlled trial. We also conducted exploratory analyses of changes in weight. Methods: Patients aged 40-74 with a Body Mass Index of 28 or more and high cardiovascular risk were identified from risk-assessment data or from practice database searches. Participants were randomised, using an online computerised randomisation algorithm, to receive usual care and standardised information on cardiovascular risk and lifestyle (Controls) or nine sessions of the Waste the Waist programme (Intervention). Group allocation was concealed until the point of randomisation. Thereafter, the statistician, but not participants or data collectors were blinded to group allocation. Weight, physical activity (accelerometry) and cardiovascular risk markers (blood tests) were measured at 0, 4 and 12 months. Results: 108 participants (22% of those approached) were recruited (55 intervention, 53 controls) from 6 practices and 89% and 85% provided data at 4 and 12 months respectively. Participants had a mean age of 65 and 70% were male. Intervention participants attended 72% of group sessions. Based on last observations carried forward, the intervention group did not lose significantly more weight than controls at 12 months, although the difference was significant when co-interventions and comorbidities that could affect weight were taken into account (Mean Diff 2.6Kg. 95%CI: -4.8 to -0.3, p=0.025). No significant differences were found in physical activity. Conclusions: the Waste the Waist intervention is deliverable in UK primary care, has acceptable recruitment and retention rates and produces promising preliminary weight loss results. Subject to refinement of the physical activity component, it is now ready for evaluation in a full-scale trial. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10707899. Funding source: National Institute of Health Research.

BACKGROUND: Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT), a form of cognitive-behavioral therapy, may help meet a need for accessible and cost-effective treatments for chronic pain. ACT has a growing evidence base, but has not yet been tested within general practice settings.

OBJECTIVE: Recognising patients' cues and concerns is an important part of patient centred care. With nurses and pharmacists now able to prescribe in the UK, this study compared the frequency, nature, and professionals' responses to patient cues and concerns in consultations with GPs, nurse prescribers and pharmacist prescribers. METHODS: Audio-recording and analysis of primary care consultations in England between patients and nurse prescribers, pharmacist prescribers and GPs. Recordings were coded for the number of cues and concerns raised, cue or concern type and whether responded to positively or missed. RESULTS: a total of 528 consultations were audio-recorded with 51 professionals: 20 GPs, 19 nurse prescribers and 12 pharmacist prescribers. Overall there were 3.5 cues or concerns per consultation, with no difference between prescriber groups. Pharmacist prescribers responded positively to 81% of patient's cues and concerns with nurse prescribers responding positively to 72% and GPs 53% (PhP v NP: U = 7453, z = -2.1, p = 0.04; PhP v GP: U = 5463, z = -5.9, p < 0.0001; NP v GP: U = 12,070, z = -4.9, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: This evidence suggests that pharmacists and nurses are responding supportively to patients' cues and concerns. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: the findings support the importance of patient-centredness in training new prescribers and their potential in providing public health roles.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the changes in physical activity in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease over 6months after pulmonary rehabilitation. DESIGN: Prospective, observational study. Activity was measured over 2-day periods at the end of rehabilitation, and repeated every 6weeks for 6months using the ActivPAL uni-axial accelerometer. These results were compared with the shuttle walking test (SWT) and the St. George's Respiratory Disease Questionnaire (SGRDQ). SETTING: UK community hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Adults completing a community rehabilitation programme. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Time spent standing and mobilising ('uptime'). RESULTS: of 34 subjects recruited, 28 completed the 6-month study period (mean age 69years, mean forced expiratory volume in 1second 1.3l). Participants wore the monitor for 13.8 to 14.2hours/day. At baseline (post-rehabilitation), participants spent 1.7 [standard deviation (SD) 1.3]hours/day walking and 3.5 (SD 2.6)hours/day standing. Taking the group as a whole, mean uptime decreased marginally by 13.6minutes after 24weeks compared with baseline, with significant individual variability. In all but one subject who showed decreased activity, this was apparent after 6weeks. There were no significant changes in the mean SWT or SGRDQ. Significant associations between total uptime and the SWT were found, but coefficients were weak. It was not possible to predict individual responses from baseline data. CONCLUSION: the accelerometer provides useful supplementary data in patients completing rehabilitation programmes, and the results reveal wide variation. The weak associations between activity data and the SWT suggest that monitors provide additional information. More work is required to determine the factors associated with early deterioration in activity in order to design appropriate interventions.

Background: Lower-respiratory-tract infection is one of the most common acute illnesses managed in primary care. Few placebo-controlled studies of antibiotics have been done, and overall effectiveness (particularly in subgroups such as older people) is debated. We aimed to compare the benefits and harms of amoxicillin for acute lower-respiratory-tract infection with those of placebo both overall and in patients aged 60 years or older. Methods: Patients older than 18 years with acute lower-respiratory-tract infections (cough of ≤28 days' duration) in whom pneumonia was not suspected were randomly assigned (1:1) to either amoxicillin (1 g three times daily for 7 days) or placebo by computer-generated random numbers. Our primary outcome was duration of symptoms rated " moderately bad" or worse. Secondary outcomes were symptom severity in days 2-4 and new or worsening symptoms. Investigators and patients were masked to treatment allocation. This trial is registered with EudraCT (2007-001586-15), UKCRN Portfolio (ID 4175), ISRCTN (52261229), and FWO (G.0274.08N). Findings: 1038 patients were assigned to the amoxicillin group and 1023 to the placebo group. Neither duration of symptoms rated " moderately bad" or worse (hazard ratio 1·06, 95% CI 0·96-1·18; p=0·229) nor mean symptom severity (1·69 with placebo vs 1·62 with amoxicillin; difference -0·07 [95% CI -0·15 to 0·007]; p=0·074) differed significantly between groups. New or worsening symptoms were significantly less common in the amoxicillin group than in the placebo group (162 [15·9%] of 1021 patients vs 194 [19·3%] of 1006; p=0·043; number needed to treat 30). Cases of nausea, rash, or diarrhoea were significantly more common in the amoxicillin group than in the placebo group (number needed to harm 21, 95% CI 11-174; p=0·025), and one case of anaphylaxis was noted with amoxicillin. Two patients in the placebo group and one in the amoxicillin group needed to be admitted to hospital; no study-related deaths were noted. We noted no evidence of selective benefit in patients aged 60 years or older (n=595). Interpretation: When pneumonia is not suspected clinically, amoxicillin provides little benefit for acute lower-respiratory-tract infection in primary care both overall and in patients aged 60 years or more, and causes slight harms. Funding: European Commission Framework Programme 6, UK National Institute for Health Research, Barcelona Ciberde Enfermedades Respiratorias, and Research Foundation Flanders. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

BACKGROUND: the opening solicitation is a key element of the primary care consultation as it enables patients to express their ideas, concerns and expectations that can lead to improved patient outcomes. However, in practice, this may not always occur. With nurses and pharmacists now able to prescribe, this research explored the opening solicitation in a multi-professional context. OBJECTIVE: to compare the nature, frequency and response to opening solicitations used in consultations with nurse prescribers (NPs), pharmacist prescribers (PPs) and GPs. METHODS: an observational study using audio-recordings of NP, PP and GP patient consultations in 36 primary care practices in southern England. Between 7-13 prescriber-patient consultations were recorded per prescriber. A standardized pro forma based upon previous research was used to assess recordings. RESULTS: Five hundred and thirty-three patient consultations (213 GPs, 209 NPs, 111 PPs) were audio-recorded with 51 prescribers. Across the prescribing groups, pharmacists asked fewer opening solicitations, while GPs used more open questions than NPs and PPs. The mean number of patient agenda items was 1.3 with more items in GP consultations. Patients completed their opening agenda in 20% of consultations, which was unaffected by professional seen. Redirection of the patient's agenda occurred at 24 seconds (mean). CONCLUSION: all prescribers should be encouraged to use more open questions and ask multiple solicitations throughout the consultation. This is likely to result in greater expression of patients' concerns and improved patient outcomes.

Aims: Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. Design: Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999-2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. Setting: UK. Participants: UK smokers. Measurements: Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. Findings: TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and 'ultra-low price' (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. Conclusions: Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

AIMS: Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. DESIGN: Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999-2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: UK smokers. MEASUREMENTS: Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. FINDINGS: TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and 'ultra-low price' (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. CONCLUSIONS: Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies.

Objectives. To identify an evidence-based intervention to promote changes in diet and physical activity and adapt it for a UK primary care setting for people with high cardiovascular risk.

Design. A three-stage mixed-methods design was used to facilitate a strategic approach to programme selection and adaptation.

Method. Stage 1: Criteria for scientific quality and local appropriateness were developed for the selection/adaptation of an intervention to promote lifestyle change in people of high cardiovascular risk through (1) patient interviews, (2) a literature search to extract evidence-based criteria for behavioural interventions, and (3) stakeholder consultation. Stage 2: Potential interventions for adaptation were identified and ranked according to their performance against the criteria developed in Stage 1. Stage 3: Intervention mapping (IM) techniques were used to (1) specify the behavioural objectives that participants would need to reach in order to attain programme outcomes, and (2) adapt the selected intervention to ensure that evidence-based strategies to target all identified behavioural objectives were included.

Results. Four of 23 potential interventions identified met the 11 essential criteria agreed by a multi-disciplinary stakeholder committee. of these, the Greater Green Triangle programme (Laatikainen et al. 2007) was ranked highest and selected for adaptation. The IM process identified 13 additional behaviour change strategies that were used to adapt the intervention for the local context.

Conclusions. IM provided a useful set of techniques for the systematic adaptation of an existing lifestyle intervention to a new population and context, and facilitated transparent working processes for a multi-disciplinary team.

Background: Emotional problems such as anxiety and low mood in children are common, impair everyday functioning and increase the risk of severe mental health disorders in adulthood. Relatively few children with emotional health problems are identified and referred for treatment indicating the need to investigate preventive approaches.Methods/Design: the study is designed to be a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of an efficacious school-based cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) prevention program (FRIENDS) on symptoms of anxiety and low mood in children 9 to 10 years of age. The unit of allocation is schools which are assigned to one of three conditions: school-led FRIENDS, health-led FRIENDS or treatment as usual. Assessments will be undertaken at baseline, 6 months and 12 months. The primary outcome measure is change on the Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale. Secondary outcome measures assess changes in self-esteem, worries, bullying and life satisfaction. An economic evaluation will be undertaken.Discussion: As of September 2011, 41 schools have been recruited and randomized. Final 12-month assessments are scheduled to be completed by May 2013.Trial Registration: ISRCTN23563048. © 2012 Stallard et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

OBJECTIVES: Professional status and working arrangements can inhibit doctors from acknowledging and seeking care for their own ill health. Research identifies that a culture of immunity to illness within the medical profession takes root during training. What happens when trainee doctors become unwell during their formative period of education and training? What support do they receive and how do they perceive that the experience of ill health affects their training trajectory? These research questions were developed by a multidisciplinary team of researchers and health professionals, who adopted a qualitative approach to investigate the experiences of personal illness among trainees in their Foundation Programme (FP) years. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight FP trainees from the Severn Deanery in southwest England who had experienced significant illness. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was used to conduct and analyse the interviews, resulting in a comprehensive list of master themes. This paper reports an interpretative analysis of the themes of Support, Illness Experience, Crossing the Line, Medical Culture, Stigma and Disclosure. RESULTS: Ineffective communication within the medical education and employment system underpins many of the difficulties encountered by trainees who are unwell. Coping style plays a key role in predicting how trainees experience support during and after their illness, although this may be influenced by their particular diagnoses. The barriers to disclosure of their illnesses are discussed within the context of mobilising and maintaining support. Concern about the impact of missing training as a result of ill health appears to be significant in the transmitting of an ethos of invulnerability within the medical culture. CONCLUSIONS: Suggestions to improve support procedures for trainees who are unwell include the provision of greater flexibility within the rotation system along with independent pastoral support. Promoting the importance of disclosing significant illness as early as possible might go some way towards challenging the culture of invulnerability to illness that prevails among doctors.

OBJECTIVE: the evaluation of a community-based exercise and education scheme for stroke survivors. DESIGN: a single blind parallel group randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Leisure and community centres in the south-west of England. SUBJECTS: Stroke survivors (median (IQR) time post stroke 10.3 (5.4-17.1) months). 243 participants were randomized to standard care (124) or the intervention (119). INTERVENTION: Exercise and education schemes held twice weekly for eight weeks, facilitated by volunteers and qualified exercise instructors (supported by a physiotherapist), each with nine participants plus carers or family members. METHOD: Participants were assessed by a blinded independent assessor at two weeks before the start of the scheme, nine weeks and six months. One-year follow-up was by postal assessment. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Subjective Index of Physical and Social Outcome (SIPSO); Frenchay Activities Index; Rivermead Mobility Index. NHS, social care and personal costs. Secondary outcomes included WHOQoL-Bref. ANALYSIS: Intention-to-treat basis, using non-parametric analysis to investigate change from baseline. Economic costs were compared in a cost-consequences analysis. RESULTS: There were significant between-group changes in SIPSO physical at nine weeks (median (95% confidence interval (CI)), 1 (0, 2): P = 0.022) and at one year (0 (-1, 2): P = 0.024). (WHOQol-Bref psychological (6.2 (-0.1, 9.1): P = 0.011) at six months. Mean cost per patient was higher in the intervention group. The difference, excluding inpatient care, was pound296 (95% CI: - pound321 to pound913). CONCLUSION: the community scheme for stroke survivors was a low-cost intervention successful in improving physical integration, maintained at one year, when compared with standard care.

OBJECTIVE: to determine whether the mortality in a cohort of patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) from a single center in the UK is significantly different from the general UK population. METHODS: Patients who were entered onto the PsA database at the Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases, Bath, between 1985 and 2007 were included in this study. Information on patient deaths was collected retrospectively. The National Health Service (NHS) Strategic Tracing Service was used to establish which patients were alive and which had died. Date and cause of death were confirmed by death certificates from the Registry of Births, Marriages and Deaths. A standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated by matching the patient data to single-year, 5-year age-banded England and Wales data from the Office of National Statistics. RESULTS: in this cohort of 453 patients with PsA (232 men, 221 women), there were 37 deaths. Sixteen men and 21 women died. The SMR for the men was 67.87% (95% CI 38.79, 110.22), and for the women, 97.01% (95% CI 60.05, 148.92) and the overall SMR for the PsA cohort was 81.82% (95% CI 57.61, 112.78). The leading causes of death in this cohort were cardiovascular disease (38%), diseases of the respiratory system (27%), and malignancy (14%). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that mortality in our single-center PsA cohort is not significantly different from the general UK population. No increased risk of death was observed in this cohort.

AIMS: to explore trends in and predictors of second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure in children. To identify whether inequalities in SHS exposure are changing over time. DESIGN: Repeated cross-sectional study with data from eight annual surveys conducted over an 11-year period from 1996 to 2006. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Nationally representative samples of children aged 4-15 years living in private households. MEASUREMENTS: Saliva cotinine (4-15-year-olds), current smoking status (8-15-year-olds), smoking status of parents and carers, smoking in the home, socio-demographic variables. FINDINGS: the most important predictors of SHS exposure were modifiable factors-whether people smoke in the house on most days, whether the parents smoke and whether the children are looked after by carers who smoke. Children from more deprived households were more exposed and this remained the case even after parental smoking status has been controlled for. Exposure over time has fallen markedly among children (59% decline over 11 years in geometric mean cotinine), with the most marked decline observed in the period immediately preceding smoke-free legislation. Declines in exposure have generally been greater in children most exposed at the outset. For example, in children whose parents both smoke, median cotinine declined annually by 0.115 ng/ml compared with 0.019 ng/ml where neither parent smokes (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: in the 11 years leading up to smoke-free legislation in England, the overall level of SHS exposure in children as well as absolute inequalities in exposure have been declining. Further efforts to encourage parents and carers to quit and to avoid smoking in the home would benefit child health.

OBJECTIVE: to determine whether an early intervention using a psychological debriefing format is effective in preventing psychological distress in child road traffic accident survivors. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Accident and Emergency Department, Royal United Hospital, Bath. SUBJECTS: 158 children aged 7-18. Follow-up assessment completed eight months post accident with 132 (70/82 of the experimental group and 62/76 in the control group). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-completed measures of psychological distress; fulfilment of diagnostic criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder. RESULTS: Children in both groups demonstrated considerable improvements at follow-up. The early intervention did not result in any additional significant gains. CONCLUSIONS: Although children in this study made significant improvements it is unclear whether these are better or worse than natural recovery rates. The specific intervention did not result in additional gains although the structured assessment provided for both groups may have been helpful in reducing subsequent pathology.

BACKGROUND: the insertion of grommets (also known as ventilation or tympanostomy tubes) is one of the most common surgical procedures performed on children. Postoperative otorrhoea (discharge) is the most common complication with a reported incidence ranging from 10% to 50%. In the UK, many ENT surgeons treat with topical antibiotics/steroid combinations, but general practitioners, mainly through fears of ototoxicity, are unlikely to prescribe these and choose systemic broad-spectrum antibiotics. OBJECTIVES: 1. To identify the most effective non-surgical management of discharge from ears with grommets in place.2. To identify the risks of non-surgical management for this condition (e.g. ototoxicity), and to set benefits of treatment against these risks. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Ear, Nose and Throat Disorders Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library, Issue 1, 2005), MEDLINE (1966 to 2005) and EMBASE (1974 to 2005). We also searched the CINAHL, AMED, LILACS, ISI WEB OF KNOWLEDGE, ISI PROCEEDINGS, mRCT, NNR, ZETOC, KOREAMED, CSA, MEDCARIB, INDMED and SAMED databases. The date of the last search was February 2005. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials of adults or children, with any type of grommet and an ear with discharge were included. The trials compared treatment with placebo or one treatment with another. The primary outcome measure was the duration of the discharge. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: the trials were selected independently according to the above criteria by the four reviewers. Differences in opinion over the inclusion of studies were resolved by discussion. The studies were graded using the CASP critical appraisal tool. Analyses were based on the presence of discharge seven days from the onset of treatment. MAIN RESULTS: There was very little good quality evidence. Four studies were included, all of them investigating different interventions and therefore a meta-analysis was not possible. Only one study demonstrated a significant difference. Oral amoxicillin clavulanate was compared to placebo in 79 patients. The odds of having a discharge persisting eight days after starting treatment was 0.19 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.49). The number needed to treat to achieve that benefit is 2.5. Participants in both arms of this study also received daily aural toilet. The results will therefore not be applicable to most settings including primary care. No significant benefit was shown in the two studies investigating steroids (oral prednisolone with oral amoxicillin clavulanate and topical dexamethasone with topical ciprofloxacin ear drops), or the one study comparing an antibiotic-steroid combination (Otosporin(R)) drops versus spray (Otomize(R)) (although more patients preferred the spray form). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: the authors of this review have been unable to identify the most effective intervention or to assess the associated risks. Research is urgently needed into the effectiveness of oral versus topical antibiotics in this group of patients. Clinicians considering antibiotic treatment need to balance any potential benefit against the risks of side effects and antibiotic resistance.

BACKGROUND: Medical decision making is based on patient autonomy and informed consent, which is an integral part of medical ethics, risk management and clinical governance. Consent to treatment has been extensively discussed, but the viewpoint of patients is not well represented. A new consent form was introduced by the Department of Health in 2001. AIMS: to determine the information most important to patients, to facilitate evidence-based guidelines and to provide a valid and reliable consent-procedure-satisfaction questionnaire. METHODS: an anonymous quantitative survey was carried out, asking 100 patients 15 questions regarding procedures they may need to undergo, using a Visual Analogue Scale to test the importance of each question. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: in total there were 77 respondents and the mean age was 48.8 (SD 17.63, range 20-82) years. There were 52% women and 48% men. Major complications, such as not undergoing the procedure, future management and long-term effect on work, all scored a median of 95%. Least concerns were related to technical details of the procedure and minor complications (median 64% and 63%, respectively). All other questions were still considered important (median 79-93%). No significant differences were observed between sex, age and professional groups, but a significant difference was observed between the education groups. Qualifications of the doctor did not correlate to any other question. CONCLUSIONS: This questionnaire is proposed as a basis for informed consent guidelines to health workers and for measures of satisfaction with the consent procedure.

Open label extension studies allow continued prescribing of unlicensed drugs after a randomised trial, but it is unclear whether patients or drug companies are benefiting the most

Background: There is a high non-attendance rate for traditional clinic-based routine asthma care in general practice. Alternative methods of providing routine asthma care need to be examined. Aim: to examine the cost and effectiveness of targeted routine asthma care in general practice using telephone triage, compared to usual clinic care. Design of study: an open randomised controlled trial. Setting: a single semi-rural practice in the southwest of England. Method: Adult patients with asthma were randomised to receive either their routine asthma care in the surgery or care by telephone triage. Asthma control parameters, health status and NHS resource utilisation were measured over the 12-month study period. Results: One hundred and ninety-four patients were randomised and 35% per cent more patients (n = 84 versus n = 62) received more than one consultation in the telephone group. Asthma control as measured by the asthma control questionnaire (ACQ) was similar in the clinic and telephone groups: mean change in ACQ = -0.11 (95% CI = -0.32 to 0.11) versus -0.18 (95% CI = -0.38 to 0.02). Mean NHS costs were £210 per patient per year in the telephone group compared to £334 in the clinic group (P-value of bootstrapped difference = 0.071). Conclusion: Targeted routine asthma care by telephone triage of adult asthmatics can lead to more asthma patients being reviewed, at less cost per patient and without loss of asthma control compared to usual routine care in the surgery. © British Journal of General Practice.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hydrotherapy is popular with patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Its efficacy as an aerobic conditioning aid is equivocal. Patients with RA have reduced muscle strength and may be unable to achieve a walking speed commensurate with an aerobic training effect because the resistance to movement increases with speed in water. The physiological effects of immersion may alter the heart rate-oxygen consumption relationship (HR-VO2) with the effect of rendering land-based exercise prescriptions inaccurate. The primary purpose of the present study was to compare the relationships between heart rate (HR), and ratings of perceived exertion (RPE), with speed during land and water treadmill walking in patients with RA. METHOD: the study design used a two-factor within-subjects model. Fifteen females with RA (47+/-8 SD years) completed three consecutive bouts of walking for five minutes at 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 km/h(-1) on land and water treadmills. Expired gas, collected via open-circuit spirometry, HR and RPE were measured. RESULTS: HR and RPE increased on land and in water as speed increased. Below 3.5 km/h(-1) VO2 was significantly lower in water than on land (p

OBJECTIVE: the heritability of disease activity and function in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) have been estimated at 0.51 and 0.63 (i.e. 51% and 63%), respectively. We examined the concordance of disease severity among family members in terms of disease activity, function, radiological change, prevalence of iritis, and juvenile onset. METHODS: Disease activity and functional impairment due to AS were studied using the Bath AS Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and Functional Index (BASFI) self-administered questionnaires; radiographic involvement was measured using the Bath AS Radiology Index (BASRI) scale. Familial correlation of BASDAI and BASFI was assessed in 406 families with 2 or more cases, using the program PAP. Parent-child and sibling-sibling concordance for iritis and juvenile AS were also studied in these families. Heritability of radiological disease severity based on the BASRI was assessed in 29 families containing 60 affected individuals using the program SOLAR. RESULTS: Correlations between parent-child pairs for disease activity and function were 0.07 for both. Correlations between sibling pairs for disease activity and function were 0.27 and 0.36, respectively. The children of AS parents with iritis were more likely to develop iritis [27/71 (38%)] than children of non-iritis AS parents [13/70 (19%)] (p = 0.01). Parents with JAS were more likely to have children with JAS [17/30 (57%) compared to non-JAS parents 34/111 (30%)] (p = 0.002). The heritability of radiological disease severity based on the BASRI was 0.62. CONCLUSION: While correlation in severity between parent and child is poor, siblings do resemble each other in terms of severity, supporting the findings of segregation studies indicating significant genetic dominance in the heritable component of disease activity. Significant parent-child concordance for iritis and juvenile disease onset suggest that there are genetic risk factors for these traits independent of those determining the risk of AS itself. The finding of significant heritability of radiological change (BASRI) provides support using an objective measure for the observed heritability of the questionnaire-assessed disease severity scores, BASDAI and BASFI.

OBJECTIVE: to determine the effect of risk factor modification and balance exercise on falls rates in residential care homes. DESIGN: cluster randomised controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: 196 residents (aged 60 years or over) in 20 residential care homes were enrolled (38% response rate). Homes were randomly allocated to intervention and control arms. A total of 102 residents were consigned to the intervention arm and 94 to the control arm. INTERVENTION: a multifactorial falls prevention programme including 3 months gait and balance training, medication review, podiatry and optometry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: number of falls/recurrent falls per person, number of medications per person, and change in Tinetti gait and balance measure. RESULTS: in the intervention group there was a mean of 2.2 falls per resident per year compared with 4.0 in the control group; this failed to reach statistical significance (P = 0.2) once the intra-cluster correlation (ICC, 0.10) had been accounted for. Several risk factors were reduced in the intervention arm. CONCLUSIONS: falls risk factor reduction is possible in residents of care homes. A modest reduction in falls rates was demonstrated but this failed to reach statistical significance.

OBJECTIVE: to compare effects of different oral hypoglycemic drugs as first-line therapy on lipoprotein subfractions in type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Sixty overweight type 2 diabetic patients not on lipid-lowering therapy were randomized to metformin, pioglitazone, or gliclazide after a 3-month dietary run-in. Drug doses were uptitrated for 3 months to optimize glycemia and were kept fixed for a further 3 months. LDL subfractions (LDL(1), LDL(2), and LDL(3)) were prepared by density gradient ultracentrifugation at randomization and study end. Triglycerides, cholesterol, total protein, and phospholipids were measured and mass of subfractions calculated. HDL subfractions were prepared by precipitation. The primary end point was change in proportion of LDL as LDL(3). RESULTS: HbA(1c), triglycerides, glucose, and cholesterol were comparable across groups at baseline and over time. LDL(3) mass and the LDL(3)-to-LDL ratio fell with pioglitazone (LDL(3) mass 36.2 to 28.0 mg/dl, P < 0.01; LDL(3)-to-LDL 19.2:13.3%, P < 0.01) and metformin (42.7 to 31.5 mg/dl, P < 0.01; 21.3:16.2%, P < 0.01, respectively) with no change on gliclazide. LDL(3) reductions were associated with reciprocal LDL(1) increases. Changes were independent of BMI, glycemic control, and triglycerides. Total HDL cholesterol increased on pioglitazone (1.28 to 1.36 mmol/l, P = 0.02) but not gliclazide (1.39 to 1.37 mmol/l, P = NS) or metformin (1.26 to 1.18 mmol/l, P = NS), largely due to an HDL(2) increase (0.3 to 0.4 mmol/l, P < 0.05). HDL(3) cholesterol fell on metformin (0.9 to 0.85 mmol/l, P < 0.01). On pioglitazone and metformin, the HDL(2)-to-HDL(3) ratio increased compared with no change on gliclazide. CONCLUSIONS: for the same improvement in glycemic control, pioglitazone and metformin produce favorable changes in HDL and LDL subfractions compared with gliclazide in overweight type 2 diabetic patients. Such changes may be associated with reduced atherosclerosis risk and may inform the choice of initial oral hypoglycemic agent.

Few data are available on the effects of high dose statin therapy on lipoprotein subfractions in type 2 diabetes. In a double blind randomised placebo-controlled trial we have studied the effects of 80 mg atorvastatin over 8 weeks on LDL, VLDL and HDL subfractions in 40 overweight type 2 diabetes patients. VLDL and LDL subfractions were prepared by density gradient ultracentrifugation. Triglycerides, cholesterol, total protein and phospholipids were measured and mass of subfractions calculated. HDL subfractions were prepared by precipitation. Atorvastatin 80 mg produced significant falls in LDL subfractions (LDL(1) 66.2 mg/dl:36.6 mg/dl, LDL(2) 118:56.6 mg/dl, LDL(3) 36.9:19.9 mg/dl all P < 0.01 relative to placebo) and VLDL subfractions (VLDL(1) 55:22.1 mg/dl, VLDL(2) 40.1:19.1 mg/dl, VLDL(3) 52.6:30 mg/dl all P < 0.01 relative to placebo). There was no change in the proportion of LDL present as LDL(3). There was a reduction in the proportion of VLDL as VLDL(1) and a reciprocal increase in the proportion as VLDL(3). Changes in VLDL subfractions were associated with changes in lipid composition, particularly a reduction in cholesterol ester and a reduction in the cholesterol ester/triglyceride ratio. Effects on HDL subfractions were largely neutral. High dose atorvastatin produces favourable effects on lipoprotein subfractions in type 2 diabetes which may enhance antiatherogenic potential.

This study compares amplitude-dependent speed of sound (AD-SoS) measured by phalangeal ultrasonography in a group of 60 patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with those who had had the disease for more than 4 years. The mean duration of the early disease group was 1.4 years, and the mean of the established RA group was 14.6 years. Plasma viscosity (PV), C-reactive protein (CRP) and HAQ scores were obtained. Forty-nine patients with early RA had hand radiographs assessed by the Larsen score method. The DBM Sonic system was assessed on normal volunteers and a coefficient of variation of 0.88% obtained. A significant correlation was found between the left and right hands of the patients groups studied ( r=0.84). The mean Z score of both hands was therefore used in comparing the two clinical groups. Results showed no correlation between CRP, PV and Z scores of AD-SoS. The HAQ scores showed a weak negative correlation, and there was no correlation between the Larsen score and Z score, or the number of swollen joints and Z score. However, the early and established groups with RA were significantly different (#E5/E5#=0.004). Within the early RA group the Z score for AD-SoS was lower in those with disease duration of less than 2 years (-1.71) than in those with disease duration of 2-4 years (-1.01). This suggests that bone loss in the fingers is greater in the first 2 years of disease than in the following 2 years, which might reflect an effect of treatment.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality for reasons which are insufficiently understood. Chronic inflammation may impair vascular function and lead to an increase of arterial stiffness, an important determinant of cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVE: to investigate the augmentation index (AIx) as a measure of arterial stiffness in patients with RA, free of cardiovascular disease or risk factors, by means of a matched cohort pilot study. METHOD: Patients with a diagnosis of RA, aged 50 years or younger, were screened for the absence of clinical cardiovascular disease and risk factors, such as smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, and excessive systemic steroid use. Suitable subjects were assessed by non-invasive radial pulse wave analysis to determine their AIx. These data were compared with those from healthy controls, matched closely for sex, age, mean peripheral blood pressure, heart rate, and height. RESULTS: 14 suitable patients (11 female; mean (SD) age 42 (6) years, mean RA duration 11 (6) years; mean C reactive protein 19 (15) mg/l, no clinical systemic rheumatoid vasculitis) and matched controls were identified. The RA group had a higher mean (SD) AIx and mean (SD) central blood pressure (BP) than the control group: AIx 26.2 (6.7) v 18.9 (10.8)%, p=0.028; mean central BP 91.3 (7.8) v 88.2 (8.9) mm Hg, p

This study assessed the clinical use of three ultrasound measurements; median nerve cross-sectional area, median nerve flattening ratio and palmar displacement of the flexor retinaculum, for the diagnosis of carpal tunnel syndrome. The measurements were made in 20 carpal tunnel sufferers and 20 controls. The sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of each were calculated in various clinical settings. Values for each of the three variables were significantly different in the patient and control populations. The differences we recorded were smaller than those found in previous studies. The tests had a sensitivity of 72% and a specificity of 90%. Alterations in the morphology of the carpal tunnel in patients with carpal tunnel syndrome can be measured in the district general hospital setting. The measurements described maybe a useful non-invasive confirmatory test in patients in whom there is a strong clinical suspicion of carpal tunnel syndrome. However, they would be of no benefit in epidemiological surveys of populations with a low incidence of carpal tunnel syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: to determine predictors of longterm outcome in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). METHODS: Data were collected retrospectively on constitutional and environmental factors that may predict outcome in AS in 311 patients (252 men, 81%). Univariate statistics and multivariable linear regression analyses were used to identify factors correlated with disease outcome, which was defined in terms of radiological (Bath AS Radiology Index, BASRI) and functional status (Bath AS Functional Index, BASFI). RESULTS: Disease duration, sex, and iritis are independently associated with BASRI and account for 23% (p < 0.001) of variation in radiological scores (BASRI-t), a measure that includes the hip joint in the score. Radiological hip involvement is significantly associated with higher scores of spinal radiological change (BASRI-s) (p < 0.001). Cigarette smoking, radiological status, and Bath AS Disease Activity Index score (BASDAI) are independently associated with and account for 50% of variability in functional status (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Much of the variability in disease severity in AS remains unexplained. All but one of the factors associated with outcome in this study are inherent. This suggests that genetic factors have a greater influence than environmental factors on radiological progression and disability in AS. It may, however, be possible to improve longterm functional outcome in AS by targeting high risk individuals early in the disease course with more aggressive management strategies and encouraging smoking cessation in all patients with AS.

OBJECTIVE: to examine the evidence that families, where the mother has disease, carry more heritable factors and investigate the effect of maternal/paternal inheritance on phenotypic expression of disease in terms of (a) severity and outcome and (b) additional co-disorders. The children of women with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) develop the disease more often than the children of men. This suggests that either women with disease carry more susceptibility factors than men or that the uterine environment/breast feeding may play a role in AS. METHODS: the number of second degree relatives (i.e. grandparent, aunt/uncle) was calculated for those index patients with a mother with disease as opposed to a father. Outcome measures were compared and prevalence of secondary disorders (i.e. psoriasis, iritis, inflammatory bowel disease) was examined in patients with an AS mother as opposed to an AS father. RESULTS: the affected offspring of maternal cases had more second degree relatives with disease [20% vs 9%, respectively, p = 0.012, odds ratio (OR): 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2, 4.5] than did children of affected men. The affected children of a mother with AS were comparable in terms of disease activity, function, and radiology to children of a father with disease. Inflammatory bowel disease was more prevalent among children of AS mothers than AS fathers (15% vs 5%, respectively, p = 0.009, OR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.3, 6.3). Psoriasis was less prevalent among sons of AS mothers than among sons of AS fathers (9% vs 22%, respectively, p = 0.03, OR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2, 0.9). CONCLUSION: the inherited susceptibility load is strongly linked to the sex of the parent with AS. Women with disease carry higher heritability (which is associated with inflammatory bowel disease) than do men. There is a male sex impact on susceptibility to psoriasis (when AS is present). However, there is no evidence that the susceptibility load has an effect on outcome or severity of disease (as measured by disease activity, function, and radiology), or that outcome is influenced by transmission of maternal as opposed to paternal factors.

BACKGROUND: Rates of deliberate self-harm (DSH) were increasing in the United Kingdom during the 1980s and early 1990s, particularly among young adult males. Self-poisoning with paracetamol was the most common means, with overdoses of anti-depressants becoming more frequent. Changes to paracetamol pack size regulations in 1997 have been followed by a reduction in overdoses, and there has been more prescription of anti-depressants less likely to necessitate hospitalization if overdosed. Improved liaison psychiatry services and increased levels of employment are among the factors that would suggest an impact on hospital admissions for self-harm. This study analysed DSH admissions to hospitals in England from 1995/96 to 1999/2000 to examine changes. METHODS: a retrospective analysis of the Hospital Episode Statistics database was carried out. RESULTS: Hospital admissions for DSH rose to 153 per 100000 in 1997/98, then declined to 143 per 100000 in 1999/2000. Paracetamol overdoses decreased from 77 to 67 per 100000. The use of anti-depressants or tranquillizers grew from 56 to 75 per 100000 during the 5 years. Self-injury, narcotics overdoses and the use of alcohol continued to increase over time. CONCLUSIONS: Yearly increases in admissions for DSH to hospitals in England reversed in 1998/99 and stabilized in 1999/ 2000. These changes were most noticeable for the 16-24 years age group. The use of paracetamol decreased, whereas other means of self-harm increased. Regional differences and the relationship between rates of DSH in the community and hospital should be explored further.

OBJECTIVE: in the HLA-B27 transgenic mouse model the first litters have been shown to have a higher percentage of diseased offspring than later litters. First-born children (n = 162) have also been shown to have a higher risk of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) than later-born children. We examined this effect of birth order using similar methods but larger numbers. METHODS: Patients from the Bath AS database (n = 4517; M:F = 2.5:1) were examined according to position of birth within the family. Chi-squared analysis was used to examine if AS was more prevalent among first-born than later-born children. RESULTS: the first-born child was not significantly more likely to have AS than later-born children (p = 0.295). [Observed compared to expected: 1607 (36%) compared to 1641.13 (36%) for first-born children and 2910 (64%) compared to 2876.3 (64%) for later-born children, respectively.] There was no biological gradient (i.e. inverse correlation between birth order and disease risk). CONCLUSION: There was no statistically significant effect of birth order based on our data. Findings suggesting a birth order effect may be skewed, as it is possible that those parents who do have AS will be less likely to have a large family and yet it is their offspring who will be at greatest risk of developing disease. This will affect the data, as those children born into a large family (i.e. high birth order children) will be at a lower risk of AS than any child born into a small but family-history-positive unit.

A previous study found that parents of communicatively impaired children with severe cognitive impairments identified six core cues as indicating definite or severe pain in their child (J. Pediatr. Psychol. 27 (2002) 209). The frequency of each cue was assessed by 67 caregivers of communicatively impaired children, twice per day over a 1 week period. On each occasion the caregivers also rated whether they considered their child to be in pain and the severity of any pain. There was a statistically significant relationship between five of the cues and the presence and severity of pain. The single cue of screwed up or distressed looking face was the strongest predictor and on its own correctly classified 87% of pain and non-pain episodes. The study highlights the potential clinical utility of a short carer completed assessment to assess pain in this vulnerable group of children.

OBJECTIVE: Home based self-care is essential for successful management of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). We designed an intervention package aimed at promoting self-care and regular longterm exercise and evaluated its effect on outcome. METHOD: Members of our database (n = 4569) were randomly selected and randomized to an intervention group (IG) or a followup control group (CG). The intervention consisted of an exercise/information video, exercise progress chart, patient education booklet, and AS exercise reminder stickers. The outcome measures were function (BASFI), disease activity (BASDAI), global well being (BAS-G), exercise self-efficacy (ESE), arthritis self-efficacy (SES), and quantity of AS mobility/aerobic exercise assessed at baseline and 6 months. RESULTS: of the 200 subjects, 155 completed the study (75 IG and 80 CG). Baseline analysis showed no differences between the CG and the IG. At 6 months, analysis revealed no statistically significant between-group differences for the BASFI, BASDAI, and BAS-G. although the p value of 0.08 for function approached significance. Self-efficacy for exercise showed a significant improvement in the IG (p = 0.045). There were no between-group differences for the SES pain and other symptoms subscales. Finally, there was a significant increase in self-reported AS mobility (p < 0.001) and aerobic exercise (p < 0.05) in the IG. CONCLUSION: an exercise intervention package designed to promote self-management in AS (1) significantly improves self-efficacy for exercise; (2) significantly improves self-reported levels of exercise; (3) reveals a trend for improvement in function (BASFI).

OBJECTIVE: Radiological status is an important objective endpoint in the assessment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). We investigated the disease development of AS using radiological change. METHODS: the existing radiographs (n = 2,284) of 571 AS patients attending the Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases were scored retrospectively using the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Radiology Index. (1) Progression of disease was initially examined cross sectionally. Univariate analysis was used to examine factors associated with joint involvement. (2) Progression of disease was then examined longitudinally for patients with films at time of symptom onset. (3) Rate of progression of radiological change was calculated using longitudinal data of 2 sets of radiographs taken 10 years apart (patient number = 54). The results from this were used to extrapolate backwards to age at first radiological change. RESULTS: (1) Progression to cervical spine disease was a function of: disease duration, severity of hip and lumbar involvement, and a history of iritis (p < 0.001). Lumbar involvement was associated with disease duration, age now, and severity of cervical and hip involvement (p < 0.001). Hip involvement was a marker for cervical disease and associated with disease duration (p < 0.001). (2) Longitudinal analysis revealed marked variation among patients with a slow general rate of progression. (3) the progression of AS over any 10 year period is linear [first 10 years = 30% (SD 0.3) of potential change, 10-20 yrs = 40% (SD 0.3) change, 20-30 yrs = 35% (SD 0.4) change (p = 0.5)]. Backward extrapolation suggests that the approximate time of first radiological change is at the age of 8 years. CONCLUSION. (1) AS is a linearly progressive disease with about 35% change every 10 years. Spinal involvement is largely an expression of disease duration while the hips become involved in about 25% of individuals and may predict a more severe outcome for the cervical spine. (2) Backward extrapolation shows that the disease process may start as young as 8 years of age. However, the time interval between the disease trigger and radiological change remains unknown.

BACKGROUND: There is no technique in general use that reliably predicts the outcome of manual aspiration of spontaneous pneumothorax. We have hypothesised that the absence of a pleural leak at the time of aspiration will identify a group of patients in whom immediate discharge is unlikely to be complicated by early lung re-collapse and have tested this hypothesis by using a simple bedside tracer gas technique. METHODS: Eighty four episodes of primary spontaneous pneumothorax and 35 episodes of secondary spontaneous pneumothorax were studied prospectively. Patients breathed air containing a tracer (propellant gas from a pressurised metered dose inhaler) while the pneumothorax was aspirated percutaneously. Tracer gas in the aspirate was detected at the bedside using a portable flame ioniser and episodes were categorised as tracer gas positive (>1 part per million of tracer gas) or negative. The presence of tracer gas was taken to imply a persistent pleural leak. Failure of manual aspiration and the need for a further intervention was based on chest radiographic appearances showing either failure of the lung to re-expand or re-collapse following initial re-expansion. RESULTS: a negative tracer gas test alone implied that manual aspiration would be successful in the treatment of 93% of episodes of primary spontaneous pneumothorax (p

Malignant biliary obstruction is a common problem that is regarded as having a poor prognosis and is usually managed with palliation. Our aim was to investigate the survival of 182 consecutive subjects with malignant biliary obstruction where management was palliative with an [corrected] endoscopically placed biliary stent. We undertook a retrospective longitudinal study with date of death or confirmed survival of at least 23 months, as the primary end point. Diagnosis and blood indices from the 24 hr prior to first ERCP were obtained from hospital records. of the 182 eligible subjects follow-up of date of death or confirmed survival of at least 23 months was obtained in 181 (99.5%). of these 181 patients, 37 (20.4%) survived for more than one year. Histological confirmation was obtained in 47 of 182 subjects (25.8%). Increased age at first ERCP predicted increased survival (P < 0.05). In conclusion, in patients with malignant biliary obstruction, where management was endoscopic and palliative, 20.4% survived for more than one year with increased age at diagnosis being the only significant predictive marker.

OBJECTIVE: to explore the nature of the interrelationship between inflammatory disease of the spine/joints, skin, eye, and bowel [i.e. ankylosing spondylitis (AS), psoriasis, iritis, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)]. METHODS: the study used 4 approaches: (1) analysis of the prevalence of secondary disorders within the AS individual (chi-square and matched pair analysis); (2) study of the temporal relationship between the onset of the different conditions; (3) evaluation of the prevalence of disease among first degree relatives; and (4) influence of secondary disorders on outcome of AS. RESULTS: 1. Among 3287 patients with AS, more than expected had either spondylitis associated with multiple co-disorders or pure AS (with no co-diseases); fewer than expected had AS plus a single co-disease (chi-square = 32.2, p < 0.001). In a matched pair analysis, patients with AS and a secondary disorder were more likely to have an additional concomitant disease, e.g. IBD-AS (n = 335) patients had a higher prevalence of iritis [45.4% vs 36.7%; OR 1.4 (1.1-2.0)] or psoriasis [23.9% vs 14.3%; OR 1.9 (1.3-2.8)] than controls. 2. Among our database subjects, the symptomatic onset of the spinal disease precedes or is contemporaneous with gut, skin, and eye involvement (matched pair t test, p < 0.001). 3. Patients with multiple disorders predict the highest prevalence of co-diseases (i.e. psoriasis, IBD, iritis, or AS) within family members, followed by those AS patients with only IBD, psoriasis, or iritis in descending order. 4. Both psoriasis and IBD increase severity in terrms of function and disease activity of AS in the patient. Radiological change is greatest for those AS subjects with iritis. CONCLUSION: There is a striking overlap within patients and family members of rheumatological, dermatological, and gastroenterological diseases. The susceptibility genes of these co-disorders appear to overlap with each other and with AS: 1. A patient with 2 inflammatory conditions is at an increased risk of developing an additional related inflammatory disorder. 2. Those with enteropathic spondylarthritis would appear to carry the greatest genetic load in terms of first degree relatives developing inflammatory conditions (including psoriasis and iritis that are not seen in the index IBD-AS patient). 3. The secondary disorders do not precede AS (arguing against psoriasis and IBD allowing for an environmental conduit to pathogenic triggers in AS). The susceptibility factors for these inflammatory conditions may be additive or have a synergistic effect on each other. There is evidence for a shared gene hypothesis.

OBJECTIVE: the longterm outcome of total hip arthroplasty (THA) in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) remains unclear. Concern has been expressed regarding joint survival, given that recipients are young and active. We present outcome data on 340 THA after a mean followup of 14 years. METHODS: the 6.7% of patients (n = 309: 237 contactable) who had undergone THA were identified from our database of 4569 subjects. Responses were received from 166 subjects (112 men, 54 women, M:F = 2:1) who were assessed for employment status and outcome [i.e. pain, mobility, satisfaction, disease activity (BASDAI), function (BASFI), and global well being (BAS-G)]. A non-THA AS control group was matched for age, sex, and disease duration. RESULTS: the mean age at AS disease onset for THA recipients was 19.5 yrs compared to 24.4 yrs for the total database (p < 0.05). The mean age at the first THA was 40.0 yrs. of the 340 THA, 276 were primary (bilateral in 66%) and 64 were revisions. The mean followup for THA was 14.0 yrs (range 1-52). Overall, for the 340 THA, the patients considered outcome to be very good in 85%. In relation to the matched control group, THA patients were comparable for BASDAI, but had poorer function (p < 0.05) and lower global well being (p < 0.05). of the 80 men under 60 years of age, 39 (49%) were employed compared to 49 (68%) of the control group (p < 0.01). Survival of original THA and revisions after 10, 15, and 20 yrs was 90%, 78%, 64%, respectively (originals), and 73%, 55%, 55%, respectively (revisions). CONCLUSION: the longterm outcome of THA in AS is outstanding. THA recipients have a younger age at onset than nonrecipients. The longterm survival characteristics of THA in young patients with AS is excellent.

Previously, the application of a continuous time hidden Markov model with discrete states was used to model geriatric inpatient behaviour. This was itself built on research using a discrete deterministic model to represent the flow of geriatric patients around departments of geriatric medicine. This paper uses the continuous time hidden Markov models and includes the effect of covariates, age and sex, in the model. Fitting the models we can visually see that the two compartment models provides estimates that are much closer to those observed in the data. The addition of covariates provides us with evidence of a difference in length of stay between men and women. However, even significant alterations to the mean age of patients in the model does not effect the length of stay.

BACKGROUND: Clinical attribution of the cause of death can be misleading, with the only true outcome measure being post-mortem analysis. Despite this there is very little published data on post-mortems following cardiac surgery. METHODS: Prospective consecutive post-mortem data were collected on 167 patients (84.4% of all in-hospital cardiac surgical deaths) in a single institution. Clinical diagnoses were compared with post-mortem findings. RESULTS: the mean age at death was 69.8 with 67.6% male. The proportion undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) alone was 52.1%, valve surgery 18.6%, valve+CABG 19.2% and other procedures 10.1%. The mean time to death was 7.9 days (range 0-87). The causes of death were cardiac 67.7%, gastrointestinal 9.6%, respiratory 8.4%, haemorrhage/technical failure 4.8%, stroke (cerebrovascular accident) 3.6%, multiorgan failure 3.0%, sepsis 1.8%, malignancy 0. 6% and trauma 0.6%. Post-mortem revealed an unsuspected cause of death in 19 (11.4%). These were gastrointestinal (infarction nine, perforation two), cardiac three, adult respiratory distress syndrome two, technical two and pulmonary embolus one. In addition, an unsuspected lung cancer was found in 1 patient who died of cardiac causes. When cardiac deaths were compared with non-cardiac causes the Parsonnet score was higher 20.0 (+/-1.4) vs. 15.3 (+/-1.6), P=0. 07; and a greater proportion tended to have poor ejection fractions (34 vs. 15%), P=0.12. There was no significant difference between the groups in terms of age, sex, operation, hypertension, diabetes, creatinine and body mass. CONCLUSIONS: Post-mortem can determine unsuspected diagnoses in a significant proportion of cases. Pre-operative risk factors do not correlate with eventual cause of death. Post-mortem still has an important role to play in cardiac surgery.

AIMS: to assess long-term outcome in a typical Western population of predominantly unfavourable patients undergoing Inoue balloon mitral valvuloplasty. Outcome amongst patients has only been undertaken in the medium term. Long-term echocardiographic data in particular are scarce. METHODS: Inoue mitral valvuloplasty was attempted in 106 patients. There were six technical failures; the procedure was therefore completed in 100 patients, who underwent annual clinical and echocardiographic follow-up. RESULTS: Patients were aged 63.5+/-10. 3 years. 82% were female. Unfavourable characteristics included age >65 (52%), NYHA class III or IV (87%), >/=1 significant co-morbidity (63%), atrial fibrillation (82%), previous surgical commissurotomy (25%) and echocardiographic score >8 (59%, mean 8.9+/-2.1). Mitral valve area increased from 0.98+/-0.23 to 1.54+/-0.31 cm(2). There were three major complications. Post-procedure, symptoms improved in 88% of patients. Haemodynamic success (mitral valve area increase >50%, final mitral valve area >1.5 cm(2), mitral regurgitation 50% gain in mitral valve area, mitral valve area

In order to appraise the prognostic and functional benefits of LV remodelling and revascularisation surgery, this retrospective study reviews all patients with ischaemia, poor LV and LV aneurysm who underwent surgery between April 1991 and October 1997 in one centre. Follow up was available in 217 (96%) of patients, many either inappropriate for, or awaiting cardiac transplantation; 59% underwent linear aneurysmectomy, 41% Jatene aneurysmorrhaphy; in addition 7.8% underwent endocardial resection. Best anti-failure medication was prescribed post-operatively. (Graph Presented) Functional benefit was confirmed with 94% of patients in Canadian Cardiac Society chest pain groups I & II post op versus 19% pre-op, and 90% in New York Heart Association dyspnoea groups I & II post op versus 34% pre op. Conclusions: Patients undergoing LV revascularisation and remodelling for advanced ischaemia do well both functionally and prognostically (historic control 37% 1 year mortality, Stevenson et.al, Am J Cardiol 1990; 66:1348-1354). A prognostic randomised controlled trial of medical management versus this surgical approach is now required.

The population of geriatrics in a given hospital district is relatively stable and therefore we may model the movement of geriatric patients by considering both their stays in hospital and subsequent releases back into the community. The care of the elderly in departments of geriatric medicine may be generally classified into two forms of clinical care, acute/rehabilitative and long stay. Our paper describes the movement of pateints through departments of geriatric medicine and subsequent stays in the community by a four-stage continuous-time Markov model, where the stages represent acute/rehabilitative patients, long-stay patients, ex-patients in the community and former patients who are now dead, respectively. Admissions are modelled as a Poisson stream and expressions are calculated for the distribution, mean and variance of numbers of patients in each compartment at any time. Using these expressions the model is then fitted to a large data set of hospital spells containing over 10 000 admissions. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.