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Dr Daniel Chalk

Dr Daniel Chalk

Senior Research Fellow in Applied Healthcare Modelling and Analysis


 +44 (0) 1392 726081



I am an applied health services researcher focused on using modelling, simulation and data science techniques to help provide evidence to solve problems in health and social care settings, and inform decision making. My areas of expertise include the use of Discrete Event Simulation to model patient pathways, System Dynamics to model whole systems, Agent Based Simulation to model emergent population dynamics from individual-level behaviours and machine learning methods to train machines to replicate decision making.

I have a particular research interest in the application of AI-based Natural Language Processing techniques to health and social care data to automate the extraction of information from free text data. This includes identifying important named information (Named Entity Recognition) and predicting the sentiment of free text data (such as patient surveys) and the particular issues raised to help organisations better understand what is and isn’t working well in the delivery of their services (Aspect-Level Sentiment Analysis).

My prior projects have led to significant impacts for patients and services across the region, including significant reductions in referral to treatment time for muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients in Cornwall, and close work with Kernow CCG to improve the provision of urgent and emergency care provision across Cornwall.

In addition to my research work, I lead the development and delivery of the PenARC Health Service Modelling Associates (HSMA) Programme – an innovative and impactful programme in which health and social care staff are released from their usual role for a day a week for a year to undertake a modelling or data science project of importance for their organisation. We provide training and ongoing mentoring support for HSMAs, and previous HSMA projects have led to £multi-million investments in mental health services and emergency department facilities, as well as the establishment of new in-house Operational Research teams in NHS organisations across the region.

I am a firm advocate of the use of Free and Open Source software in developing my models and solutions, to ensure that the work I do can be freely shared, developed upon and critically appraised. I have significant programming experience, primarily in the use of the Python programming language, which I use for most of my work.



Journal articles

Chalk D, Robbins S, Kandasamy R, Rush K, Aggarwal A, Sullivan R, Chamberlain C (In Press). Modelling Palliative and end of Life resource requirements during COVID-19: implications for quality care.  Abstract.
Chalk D (In Press). Using computer simulation to model the expansion needs of the Ambulatory Emergency Care unit at Derriford Hospital. Future Healthcare Journal
Pilbery R, Smith M, Green J, Chalk D, O'Keeffe CA (2023). Modelling NHS England 111 demand for primary care services: a discrete event simulation. BMJ Open, 13(9). Abstract.  Author URL.
Chalk D, Robbins S, Kandasamy R, Rush K, Aggarwal A, Sullivan R, Chamberlain C (2021). Modelling palliative and end-of-life resource requirements during COVID-19: implications for quality care. BMJ Open, 11(5). Abstract.  Author URL.
Chalk D (2019). Determining optimal locations for urgent care centres in Cornwall using computer modelling. British Journal of Health Care Management, 25(7), 235-240. Abstract.
Chalk D, Trent N, Vennam S, McGrane J, Mantle M (2019). Reducing delays in the diagnosis and treatment of muscle-invasive bladder cancer using simulation modelling. Journal of Clinical Urology, 12(2), 129-133. Abstract.
Manzi S, Chalk D, Day J, Pearson M, Lang I, Stein K, Pitt M (2017). A novel modelling and simulation capacity development initiative for the National Health Service. BMJ Simulation and Technology Enhanced Learning, 4(2), 97-98.
Chalk D, Manzi S, Britten N, Kluettgens B, Magura R, Valderas J (2017). Can agent-based simulation be used as a tool to support polypharmacy prescribing practice?. BMJ Simulation and Technology Enhanced Learning, 3(3), 94-98. Abstract.
Salmon HA, Chalk D, Stein K (2017). How lack of information hampers decision making in ophthalmology. British Journal of Health Care Management, 23(1), 28-38. Abstract.
Chalk D, Legg A (2017). What factors are driving increasing demand for community nursing?. Br J Community Nurs, 22(1), 675-681. Abstract.  Author URL.
Salmon A, Chalk D, Stein K, Frost A (2016). Response to: Comment on 'Cost effectiveness of collagen crosslinking for progressive keratoconus in the UK NHS'. Eye (Lond), 30(8), 1152-1153. Author URL.
Chalk D, Black S, Pitt M (2016). Which factors most influence demand for ambulances in South West England?. Journal of Paramedic Practice, 8(7), 356-367. Abstract.
Salmon HA, Chalk D, Stein K, Frost NA (2015). Cost effectiveness of collagen crosslinking for progressive keratoconus in the UK NHS. Eye (Lond), 29(11), 1504-1511. Abstract.  Author URL.
Chalk D, Pitt M (2015). Fractured neck of femur patients: Rehabilitation and the acute hospital. British Journal of Health Care Management, 21(3), 146-151. Abstract.
Chalk D, Pitt M (2015). The impact of minor injury unit closures on travel time and attendances. British Journal of Health Care Management, 21(5), 241-246. Abstract.
Chalk D, Pitt M, Stein K (2014). Cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab for diabetic macular oedema. British Journal of Health Care Management, 20(12), 585-593. Abstract.
Chalk D, Smith M (2013). Guidelines on glaucoma and the demand for services. British Journal of Health Care Management, 19(10), 476-481. Abstract.
Chalk D, Pitt M, Vaidya B, Stein K (2012). Can the retinal screening interval be safely increased to 2 years for type 2 diabetic patients without retinopathy?. Diabetes Care, 35(8), 1663-1668. Abstract.  Author URL.


Manzi S, Chalk D, Pearson M, Day J, Stein K, Lang I, Pitt M (2016). Opening the black box: Combining agent based simulation and realism in intervention development.  Abstract.
Chalk D, Manzi S (2016). THe hospital discharge game : a game theory-inspired workshop to encourage cooperation between health and social care organisations.  Abstract.

Daniel_Chalk Details from cache as at 2023-09-27 08:04:58

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