. Background
. Many male prison leavers have significant mental health problems. Prison leavers often have a history of trauma, ongoing substance misuse and housing insecurity. Only a minority of prison leavers receive mental health care on release from prison.
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. Objectives
. The aim of the Engager research programme was to develop and evaluate a theory- and evidence-informed complex intervention designed to support individuals with common mental health problems (e.g. anxiety, depression) and other complex needs, including mental health comorbidity, before and after release from prison.
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. Methods
. In phase 1, the intervention was developed through a set of realist-informed substudies, including a realist review of psychosocial care for individuals with complex needs, case studies within services demonstrating promising intervention features, focus groups with individuals from under-represented groups, a rapid realist review of the intervention implementation literature and a formative process evaluation of the prototype intervention. In a parallel randomised trial, methodological development included selecting outcome measures through reviewing literature, piloting measures and a consensus process, developing ways to quantify intervention receipt, piloting trial procedures and modelling economic outcomes. In phase 2, we conducted an individually randomised superiority trial of the Engager intervention, cost-effectiveness and cost–consequence analyses and an in-depth mixed-methods process evaluation. Patient and public involvement influenced the programme throughout, primarily through a Peer Researcher Group.
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. Results
. In phase 1, the Engager intervention included multiple components. A practitioner offered participants practical support, emotional help (including mentalisation-based approaches) and liaison with other services in prison on the day of the participant’s release and for 3–5 months post release. An intervention delivery platform (i.e. training, manual, supervision) supported implementation. Outcome measures were selected through testing and stakeholder consensus to represent a broad range of domains, with a general mental health outcome as the primary measure for the trial. Procedures for recruitment and follow-up were tested and included flexible approaches to engagement and retention. In phase 2, the trial was conducted in three prison settings, with 280 participants randomised in a 1 : 1 ratio to receive either Engager plus usual care (n = 140) or usual care only (n = 140). We achieved a follow-up rate of 65% at 6 months post release from prison. We found no difference between the two groups for the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation – Outcome Measure at 6 months. No differences in secondary measures and sensitivity analyses were found beyond those expected by chance. The cost-effectiveness analysis showed that Engager cost significantly more at £2133 (95% of iterations between £997 and £3374) with no difference in quality-adjusted life-years (–0.017, 95% of iterations between –0.042 and 0.007). The mixed-methods process evaluation demonstrated implementation barriers. These barriers included problems with retention of the intervention team, and the adverse health and criminal justice system context. Seventy-seven per cent (108/140) of individuals had at least one community contact. Significant proportions of participants engaging received day release work and practical support. In contrast, there was evidence that the psychological components, mentalisation and developing a shared understanding were used less consistently. When engagement was positive, these components were associated with positive achievement of goals for individuals. We were also able to identify how to improve the intervention programme theory, including how to support individuals who were unrealistic in their perception of their ability to cope with challenges post release.
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. Strengths and limitations
. Our development work provides a worked example of the development of a complex intervention, particularly given little prior evidence or theory specific to male offenders to build on. Our trial methodological development enabled the completion of, to the best of our knowledge, the first fully powered trial of a mental health intervention for prison leavers with common mental health problems. There were potential weaknesses in the trial methodology in terms of follow-up rates and outcome measures, with the latter potentially being insufficiently sensitive to important but highly individual changes in participants who responded to the intervention.
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. Conclusions
. Delivering a randomised controlled trial for prison leavers with acceptable levels of follow-up is possible, despite adverse conditions. Full intervention implementation was challenging, but this is to be expected. Some individuals did respond well to the intervention when both practical and psychological support were flexibly deployed as intended, with evidence that most components were experienced as helpful for some individuals. It is recommended that several key components be developed further and tested, along with improved training and supervision, to support delivery of the Engager intervention within existing teams working with prison leavers.
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. Trial registration
. This trial is registered as ISRCTN11707331.
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. Funding
. This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 10, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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BACKGROUND: People in prison experience a range of physical and mental health problems. Evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of prison-based interventions presents a number of methodological challenges. We present a case study of an economic evaluation of a prison-based intervention ("Engager") to address common mental health problems. METHODS: Two hundred and eighty people were recruited from prisons in England and randomised to Engager plus usual care or usual care. Participants were followed up for 12 months following release from prison. The primary analysis is the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of Engager compared to usual care from a National Health Service (NHS) perspective with QALYs calculated using the CORE 6 Dimension. A cost-consequences analysis evaluated cross-sectoral costs and a range of outcomes. RESULTS: from an NHS perspective, Engager cost an additional £2737 per participant (95% of iterations between £1029 and £4718) with a mean QALY difference of - 0.014 (95% of iterations between - 0.045 and 0.017). For the cost-consequences, there was evidence of improved access to substance misuse services 12 months post-release (odds ratio 2.244, 95% confidence Interval 1.304-3.861). CONCLUSION: Engager provides a rare example of a cost-utility analysis conducted in prisons and the community using patient-completed measures. Although the results from this trial show no evidence that Engager is cost-effective, the results of the cost-consequences analysis suggest that follow-up beyond 12 months post-release using routine data may provide additional insights into the effectiveness of the intervention and the importance of including a wide range of costs and outcomes in prison-based economic evaluations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (ISRCTN11707331).

Background
Mental health problems are common among children and young people in the UK. They are experienced in different ways for some young people from ethnic minority backgrounds. Furthermore, those from ethnic minority backgrounds often have greater difficulties accessing mental health support, variable levels of engagement with services, and may prefer different support to their White British peers.
Objective
To describe the nature and scope of qualitative research about the experiences of children and young people from ethnic minority backgrounds in seeking or obtaining care or support for mental health problems.
Data sources
We searched seven bibliographic databases (ASSIA, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycInfo, HMIC, Social Policy and Practice, and Web of Science) using relevant terms [23 June 2021].
Methods
The scoping review included qualitative research about young people’s experiences of seeking or engaging with services or support for mental health problems. Included studies were: published from 2012 onwards, from the UK, were about those aged 10 to 24 years and were from ethnic minority backgrounds (i.e. not White British). Study selection, data extraction and quality assessment (with ‘Wallace’ criteria) were conducted by two reviewers. We provide a descriptive summary of the aims, scope, sample, methods and quality of the included studies, and selected presentation of authors’ findings (i.e. no formal synthesis).
Findings
From 5335 unique search records, we included 26 papers or reports describing 22 diverse qualitative studies. Most of the studies were well conducted and clearly described.
There were studies of refugees/asylum seekers (5 studies), university students (4), and studies among young people experiencing particular mental health problems (14; some studies appear in multiple categories): schizophrenia or psychosis (3), eating disorders (3), post-traumatic stress disorder (3; in asylum seekers), substance misuse (2) self-harm (2), and obsessive compulsive disorder (1). There were also three studies in ethnic minority young people who were receiving particular treatments (CBT, multi-systemic therapy for families, and a culturally adapted family-based talking therapy).
Most studies had been conducted with young people or their parents from a range of different ethnic backgrounds. However, nine studies were conducted in particular ethnic groups: asylum-seekers from Afghanistan (2), Black and South Asian (2), Black African and Black-Caribbean (2), South Asian (1), Pakistani or Bangladeshi (1), and Orthodox Jewish (1).
The studies suggested a range of factors that influence care-seeking and access to mental health care, in terms of the beliefs and knowledge of young people and their parents, the design and promotion of services, and the characteristics of care professionals. Poor access was attributed to a lack of understanding of mental health problems, lack of information about services, lack of trust in care professionals, social stigma, and cultural expectations about mental resilience.
Limitations
As a rapid scoping review there was only basic synthesis of the research findings.
Future work
Future research about young people from ethnic minorities could cover a wider range of ethnic minorities, sample and analyse separately experiences from particular ethnic minorities, cover those accessing different services for different needs, and adopt multiple perspectives (e.g. service user, carer, clinician, service management).
Review protocol was pre-registered with Open Science Framework at: https://osf.io/wa7bf/

Background
‘Engager’ is an innovative ‘through-the-gate’ complex care intervention for male prison-leavers with common mental health problems. In parallel to the randomised-controlled trial of Engager (Trial registration number: ISRCTN11707331), a set of process evaluation analyses were undertaken. This paper reports on the depth multiple case study analysis part of the process evaluation, exploring how a sub-sample of prison-leavers engaged and responded to the intervention offer of one-to-one support during their re-integration into the community.


Methods
To understand intervention delivery and what response it elicited in individuals, we used a realist-informed qualitative multiple ‘case’ studies approach. We scrutinised how intervention component delivery lead to outcomes by examining underlying causal pathways or ‘mechanisms’ that promoted or hindered progress towards personal outcomes. ‘Cases’ (n = 24) were prison-leavers from the intervention arm of the trial. We collected practitioner activity logs and conducted semi-structured interviews with prison-leavers and Engager/other service practitioners. We mapped data for each case against the intervention logic model and then used Bhaskar’s (2016) ‘DREIC’ analytic process to categorise cases according to extent of intervention delivery, outcomes evidenced, and contributing factors behind engagement or disengagement and progress achieved.


Results
There were variations in the dose and session focus of the intervention delivery, and how different participants responded. Participants sustaining long-term engagement and sustained change reached a state of ‘crises but coping’. We found evidence that several components of the intervention were key to achieving this: trusting relationships, therapeutic work delivered well and over time; and an in-depth shared understanding of needs, concerns, and goals between the practitioner and participants. Those who disengaged were in one of the following states: ‘Crises and chaos’, ‘Resigned acceptance’, ‘Honeymoon’ or ‘Wilful withdrawal’.


Conclusions
We demonstrate that the ‘implementability’ of an intervention can be explained by examining the delivery of core intervention components in relation to the responses elicited in the participants. Core delivery mechanisms often had to be ‘triggered’ numerous times to produce sustained change. The improvements achieved, sustained, and valued by participants were not always reflected in the quantitative measures recorded in the RCT. The compatibility between the practitioner, participant and setting were continually at risk of being undermined by implementation failure as well as changing external circumstances and participants’ own weaknesses.


Trial registration number
ISRCTN11707331, Wales Research Ethics Committee, Registered 02-04-2016—Retrospectively registered https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN11707331.

UNLABELLED: Policy Points the 2018 Declaration of Astana reemphasized the importance of primary health care and its role in achieving universal health coverage. While there is a large amount of literature on the economic aspects of delivering primary care services, there is a need for more comprehensive overviews of this evidence. In this article, we offer such an overview. Evidence suggests that there are several strategies involving coverage, financing, service delivery, and governance arrangements which can, if implemented, have positive economic impacts on the delivery of primary care services. These include arrangements such as worker task-shifting and telemedicine. The implementation of any such arrangements, based on positive economic evidence, should carefully account for potential impacts on overall health care access and quality. There are many opportunities for further research, with notable gaps in evidence on the impacts of increasing primary care funding or the overall supply of primary care services. CONTEXT: the 2018 Declaration of Astana reemphasized the importance of primary health care and its role in achieving universal health coverage. To strengthen primary health care, policymakers need guidance on how to allocate resources in a manner that maximizes its economic benefits. METHODS: We collated and synthesized published systematic reviews of evidence on the economic aspects of different models of delivering primary care services. Building on previous efforts, we adapted existing taxonomies of primary care components to classify our results according to four categories: coverage, financing, service delivery, and governance. FINDINGS: We identified and classified 109 reviews that met our inclusion criteria according to our taxonomy of primary care components: coverage, financing, service delivery, and governance arrangements. A significant body of evidence suggests that several specific primary care arrangements, such as health workers' task shifting and telemedicine, can have positive economic impacts (such as lower overall health care costs). Notably absent were reviews on the impact of increasing primary care funding or the overall supply of primary care services. CONCLUSIONS: There is a great opportunity for further research to systematically examine the broader economic impacts of investing in primary care services. Despite progress over the last decade, significant evidence gaps on the economic implications of different models of primary care services remain, which could help inform the basis of future research efforts.

. Background
. Drug-related problems and potentially inappropriate prescribing impose a huge burden on patients and the health-care system. The most widely used tools for appropriate prescription in older adults in England and in other European countries are the Screening Tool of Older People’s Prescriptions (STOPP)/Screening Tool to Alert to the Right Treatment (START) tools. STOPP/START tools support medicines optimisation for older adults.
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. Objectives
. To identify, test and refine the programme theories underlying how interventions based on the STOPP/START tools are intended to work, for whom, in what circumstances and why, as well as the resource use and cost requirements or impacts.
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. Design
. A realist synthesis.
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. Setting
. Primary care, hospital care and nursing homes.
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. Patients
. Patients aged ≥ 65 years.
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. Interventions
. Any intervention based on the use of the STOPP/START tools.
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. Review methods
. Database and web-searching was carried out to retrieve relevant evidence to identify and test programme theories about how interventions based on the use of the STOPP/START tools work. A project reference group made up of health-care professionals, NHS decision-makers, older people, carers and members of the public was set up. In phase 1 we identified programme theories about STOPP/START interventions on how, for whom, in what contexts and why they are intended to work. We searched the peer-reviewed and grey literature to identify documents relevant to the research questions. We interviewed experts in the field in our reference group to gain input on our list of candidate context–mechanism–outcome configurations, to identify additional context–mechanism–outcome configurations and to identify additional literature and/or relevant concepts. In phase 2 we reviewed and synthesised relevant published and unpublished empirical evidence and tested the programme theories using evidence from a larger set of empirical studies.
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. Results
. We developed a single logic model structured around three key mechanisms: (1) personalisation, (2) systematisation and (3) evidence implementation. Personalisation: STOPP/START-based interventions are based on shared decision-making, taking into account patient preferences, experiences and expectations (mechanisms), leading to increased patient awareness, adherence, satisfaction, empowerment and quality of life (outcomes). Systematisation: STOPP/START tools provide a standardised/systematic approach for medication reviews (mechanisms), leading to changes in professional and organisational culture and burden/costs (outcomes). Evidence implementation: delivery of STOPP/START-based interventions is based on the implementation of best evidence (mechanisms), reducing adverse outcomes through appropriate prescribing/deprescribing (outcomes). For theory testing, we identified 40 studies of the impact of STOPP/START-based interventions in hospital settings, nursing homes, primary care and community pharmacies. Most of the interventions used multiple mechanisms. We found support for the impact of the personalisation and evidence implementation mechanisms on selected outcome variables, but similar impact was achieved by interventions not relying on these mechanisms. We also observed that the impact of interventions was linked to the proximity of the selected outcomes to the intervention in the logic model, resulting in a clearer benefit for appropriateness of prescribing, adverse drug events and prescription costs.
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. Limitations
. None of the available studies had been explicitly designed for evaluating underlying causal mechanisms, and qualitative information was sparse.
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. Conclusions
. No particular configuration of the interventions is associated with a greater likelihood of improved outcomes in given settings.
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. Study registration
. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018110795.
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. Funding
. This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 23. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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. Background
. For systematic reviews to be rigorous, deliverable and useful, they need a well-defined review question. Scoping for a review also requires the specification of clear inclusion criteria and planned synthesis methods. Guidance is lacking on how to develop these, especially in the context of undertaking rapid and responsive systematic reviews to inform health services and health policy.
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. Objective
. This report describes and discusses the experiences of review scoping of three commissioned research centres that conducted evidence syntheses to inform health and social care organisation, delivery and policy in the UK, between 2017 and 2020.
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. Data sources
. Sources included researcher recollection, project meeting minutes, e-mail correspondence with stakeholders and scoping searches, from allocation of a review topic through to review protocol agreement.
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. Methods
. We produced eight descriptive case studies of selected reviews from the three teams. From case studies, we identified key issues that shape the processes of scoping and question formulation for evidence synthesis. The issues were then discussed and lessons drawn.
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. Findings
. Across the eight diverse case studies, we identified 14 recurrent issues that were important in shaping the scoping processes and formulating a review’s questions. There were ‘consultative issues’ that related to securing input from review commissioners, policy customers, experts, patients and other stakeholders. These included managing and deciding priorities, reconciling different priorities/perspectives, achieving buy-in and engagement, educating the end-user about synthesis processes and products, and managing stakeholder expectations. There were ‘interface issues’ that related to the interaction between the review team and potential review users. These included identifying the niche/gap and optimising value, assuring and balancing rigour/reliability/relevance, and assuring the transferability/applicability of study evidence to specific policy/service user contexts. There were also ‘technical issues’ that were associated with the methods and conduct of the review. These were choosing the method(s) of synthesis, balancing fixed and fluid review questions/components/definitions, taking stock of what research already exists, mapping versus scoping versus reviewing, scoping/relevance as a continuous process and not just an initial stage, and calibrating general compared with specific and broad compared with deep coverage of topics.
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. Limitations
. As a retrospective joint reflection by review teams on their experiences of scoping processes, this report is not based on prospectively collected research data. In addition, our evaluations were not externally validated by, for example, policy and service evidence users or patients and the public.
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. Conclusions
. We have summarised our reflections on scoping from this programme of reviews as 14 common issues and 28 practical ‘lessons learned’. Effective scoping of rapid, responsive reviews extends beyond information exchange and technical procedures for specifying a ‘gap’ in the evidence. These considerations work alongside social processes, in particular the building of relationships and shared understanding between reviewers, research commissioners and potential review users that may be reflective of consultancy, negotiation and co-production models of research and information use.
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. Funding
. This report has been based on work commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research (HSDR) programme as three university-based evidence synthesis centres to inform the organisation, delivery and commissioning of health and social care; at the University of Exeter (NIHR 16/47/22), the University of Sheffield (NIHR 16/47/17) and the University of York (NIHR 16/47/11). This report was commissioned by the NIHR HSDR programme as a review project (NIHR132708) within the NIHR HSDR programme. This project was funded by the NIHR HSDR programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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AbstractMulticomponent peri-operative interventions offer to accelerate patient recovery and improve cost-effectiveness. The recent National Institute of Health Research-commissioned evidence synthesis review by Nunns et al. considers the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of all types of multicomponent interventions for older adults undergoing elective inpatient surgery. Enhanced recovery programmes (ERPs) were the most commonly evaluated intervention. An association between ERPs and decreased length of stay was observed, whilst complication rates and time to recovery were static or sometimes reduced. Important areas which lack research in the context of ERPs are patient-reported outcome measures, patients with complex needs and assessment of factors pertaining to successful ERP implementation. The next generation of ERP studies should seek to develop our understanding in these key areas.

Background
A ‘strengths-based approach’ focusses on peoples’ goals and resources rather than their problems. Social care professionals and organisations are striving to practise in a strengths-based way and since the Care Act of 2014 it is an even stronger requirement. However, there are challenges in implementing strengths-based approaches into practise, and uncertainty remains about their effectiveness.
Objective
To summarise research evidence on the effectiveness and the implementation of different strengths-based approaches within adult social work in the UK.
Data sources
We searched seven databases: MEDLINE ALL, PsycINFO, Social Policy and Practice, HMIC, CINAHL, ASSIA and the Campbell Library. Supplementary web searches were conducted. No date or language limits were used.
Review methods
Eligible studies were about adults (≥18 years) being supported or assessed by social workers; or about initiatives involving adult social care teams. For the effectiveness question, outcomes could be directly related to people’s individual outcomes or outcomes at the level of families or communities. The Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care group’s Risk of Bias Tool was chosen to appraise the quality of effectiveness studies, and qualitative implementation studies were assessed using the Wallace criteria. Findings were tabulated and analysed using framework synthesis, based on the Consolidated Framework of Implementation Research (CFIR). Studies that were not synthesised were summarised descriptively.
Findings
Of 5,030 studies screened, none met our inclusion criteria for the effectiveness question. Fifteen qualitative or mixed methods studies met the criteria for the implementation question, six of which were assessed as ‘good quality’. Seven examined Making Safeguarding Personal (MSP) and the remaining eight studies examined Local Area Coordination, Solution Focused Therapy, Family Group Conferencing, Asset-based Community Development, Strengths-based with Relationship-based Approach, Asset-based approaches, and Motivational Interviewing.
Seven studies on Making Safeguarding Personal (MSP), were synthesised into the following themes of implementation factors: 1) MSP as an intervention: seen as initially demanding but with long-term advantages; required significant practice change; needed tailoring to local settings. 2) Culture and Settings: required broad cultural changes; ‘outward facing’ and smaller/specialist councils tended to find this easier. 3) Individual characteristics: enhancing the knowledge, skills and confidence of stakeholders in MSP facilitated delivery; depended on practitioner skill in engaging people being supported; and people’s willingness to engage. 4) Embedding and sustaining MSP: depended on strong leadership and active engagement at all levels; required extensive planning and shaping of safeguarding practice that was user-focussed.
For the remaining eight studies of seven strengths-based approaches, we provide a summary of their findings.
Limitations
Our findings are mainly limited by the lack of available evidence in the UK. Higher quality studies may have revealed richer explanations of implementation.
Conclusions
There is a lack of good quality research evidence evaluating the effectiveness or implementation of strengths-based approaches. The synthesis revealed a wide range of factors that enabled or inhibited successful implementation of Making Safeguarding Personal. These factors may have wider relevance for the implementation of other strengths-based models of social work practice.
Future work
Higher quality evaluations of different strengths-based social work models are required.
Study registration: PROSPERO CRD42020166870
Funding
Commissioned by the NIHR HS&DR programme as a review project (NIHR130867) within NIHR HS&DR programme, reference number 16/47/22.

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) is an evidence-based approach for people at risk of depressive relapse to support their long-term recovery. However, despite its inclusion in guidelines, there is an a € implementation cliff'. The study objective was to develop a better explanation of what facilitates MBCT implementation. Setting UK primary and secondary care mental health services. Design, participants and methods a national two-phase, multi-method qualitative study was conducted, which was conceptually underpinned by the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services framework. Phase I involved interviews with stakeholders from 40 service providers about current provision of MBCT. Phase II involved 10 purposively sampled case studies to obtain a more detailed understanding of MBCT implementation. Data were analysed using adapted framework analysis, refined through stakeholder consultation. Results Access to MBCT is variable across the UK services. Where available, services have adapted MBCT to fit their context by integrating it into their care pathways. Evidence was often important to implementation but took different forms: the NICE depression guideline, audits, evaluations, first person accounts, experiential taster sessions and pilots. These were used to build a platform from which to develop MBCT services. The most important aspect of facilitation was the central role of the MBCT implementers. These were generally self-designated individuals who a € championed' grass-roots implementation. Our explanatory framework mapped out a prototypical implementation journey, often over many years with a balance of bottom-up and top-down factors influencing the fit of MBCT into service pathways. a € Pivot points' in the implementation journey provided windows of either challenge or opportunity. Conclusions This is one of the largest systematic studies of the implementation of a psychological therapy. While access to MBCT across the UK is improving, it remains patchy. The resultant explanatory framework about MBCT implementation provides a heuristic that informed an implementation resource.

BackgroundUK general practice faces a workforce crisis, with general practitioner (GP) shortages, organisational change, substantial pressures across the whole health-care system and an ageing population with increasingly complex health needs. GPs require lengthy training, so retaining the existing workforce is urgent and important.Objectives(1) to identify the key policies and strategies that might (i) facilitate the retention of experienced GPs in direct patient care or (ii) support the return of GPs following a career break. (2) to consider the feasibility of potentially implementing those policies and strategies.DesignThis was a comprehensive, mixed-methods study.SettingThis study took place in primary care in England.ParticipantsGeneral practitioners registered in south-west England were surveyed. Interviews were with purposively selected GPs and primary care stakeholders. A RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method (RAM) panel comprised GP partners and GPs working in national stakeholder organisations. Stakeholder consultations included representatives from regional and national groups.Main outcome measuresSystematic review – factors affecting GPs’ decisions to quit and to take career breaks. Survey – proportion of GPs likely to quit, to take career breaks or to reduce hours spent in patient care within 5 years of being surveyed. Interviews – themes relating to GPs’ decision-making. RAM – a set of policies and strategies to support retention, assessed as ‘appropriate’ and ‘feasible’. Predictive risk modelling – predictive model to identify practices in south-west England at risk of workforce undersupply within 5 years. Stakeholder consultation – comments and key actions regarding implementing emergent policies and strategies from the research.ResultsPast research identified four job-related ‘push’ factors associated with leaving general practice: (1) workload, (2) job dissatisfaction, (3) work-related stress and (4) work–life balance. The survey, returned by 2248 out of 3370 GPs (67%) in the south-west of England, identified a high likelihood of quitting (37%), taking a career break (36%) or reducing hours (57%) within 5 years. Interviews highlighted three drivers of leaving general practice: (1) professional identity and value of the GP role, (2) fear and risk associated with service delivery and (3) career choices. The RAM panel deemed 24 out of 54 retention policies and strategies to be ‘appropriate’, with most also considered ‘feasible’, including identification of and targeted support for practices ‘at risk’ of workforce undersupply and the provision of formal career options for GPs wishing to undertake portfolio roles. Practices at highest risk of workforce undersupply within 5 years are those that have larger patient list sizes, employ more nurses, serve more deprived and younger populations, or have poor patient experience ratings. Actions for national organisations with an interest in workforce planning were identified. These included collection of data on the current scope of GPs’ portfolio roles, and the need for formal career pathways for key primary care professionals, such as practice managers.LimitationsThe survey, qualitative research and modelling were conducted in one UK region. The research took place within a rapidly changing policy environment, providing a challenge in informing emergent policy and practice.ConclusionsThis research identifies the basis for current concerns regarding UK GP workforce capacity, drawing on experiences in south-west England. Policies and strategies identified by expert stakeholders after considering these findings are likely to be of relevance in addressing GP retention in the UK. Collaborative, multidisciplinary research partnerships should investigate the effects of rolling out some of the policies and strategies described in this report.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016033876 and UKCRN ID number 20700.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

BACKGROUND: Around 17% of people attending UK cardiac rehabilitation programmes have depression. Optimising psychological wellbeing is a rehabilitation goal, but provision of psychological care is limited. We developed and piloted an Enhanced Psychological Care (EPC) intervention embedded within cardiac rehabilitation, aiming to test key areas of uncertainty to inform the design of a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) and economic evaluation. METHODS: an external pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) randomised eight cardiac rehabilitation teams (clusters) to either usual care of cardiac rehabilitation provision (UC), or EPC in addition to UC. EPC comprised mental health care coordination and patient-led behavioural activation with nurse support. Adults eligible for cardiac rehabilitation following an acute coronary syndrome and identified with new-onset depressive symptoms during an initial nurse assessment were eligible. Measures were performed at baseline and 5- and 8-month follow-ups and compared between EPC and UC. Team and participant recruitment and retention rates, and participant outcomes (clinical events, depression, anxiety, health-related quality of life, patient experiences, and resource use) were assessed. RESULTS: Eight out of twenty teams were recruited and randomised. of 614 patients screened, 55 were eligible and 29 took part (5%, 95% CI 3 to 7% of those screened), with 15 patient participants cluster randomised to EPC and 14 to UC. Nurse records revealed that 8/15 participants received the maximum number of EPC sessions offered; and 4/15 received no sessions. Seven out of fifteen EPC participants were referred to another NHS psychological service compared to none in UC. We followed up 27/29 participants at 5 months and 17/21 at 8 months. The mean difference (EPC minus UC) in depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory) at follow-up (adjusting for baseline score) was 1.7 (95% CI - 3.8 to 7.3; N = 26) at 5 months and 4.4 (95% CI - 1.4 to 10.2; N = 17) at 8 months. DISCUSSION: While valued by patients and nurses, organisational and workload constraints are significant barriers to EPC implementation. There remains a need to develop and test new models of psychological care within cardiac rehabilitation. Our study offers important data to inform the design of future trials of similar interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN34701576. Registered on 29 May 2014. Funding details: UK NIHR HTA Programme (project 12/189/09).

BACKGROUND: Decisions about which subgroup of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients should be treated with direct acting anti-viral agents (DAAs) have economic importance due to high drug prices. Treat-all DAA strategies for CHC have gained acceptance despite high drug acquisition costs. However, there are also costs associated with the surveillance of CHC to determine a subgroup of patients with significant impairment. The aim of this systematic review was to describe the modelling methods used and summarise results in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of both CHC treatment with DAAs and surveillance of liver disease. METHODS: Electronic databases including Embase and Medline were searched from inception to May 2015. Eligible studies included models predicting costs and/or outcomes for interventions, surveillance, or management of people with CHC. Narrative and quantitative synthesis were conducted. Quality appraisal was conducted using validated checklists. The review was conducted following principles published by NHS Centre for Research and Dissemination. RESULTS: Forty-one CEAs met the eligibility criteria for the review; 37 evaluated an intervention and four evaluated surveillance strategies for targeting DAA treatment to those likely to gain most benefit. Included studies were of variable quality mostly due to reporting omissions. of the 37 CEAs, eight models that enabled comparative analysis were fully appraised and synthesized. These models provided non-unique cost-effectiveness estimates in a specific DAA comparison in a specific population defined in terms of genotype, prior treatment status, and presence or absence of cirrhosis. Marked heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness estimates was observed despite this stratification. Approximately half of the estimates suggested that DAAs were cost-effective considering a threshold of US$30,000 and 73% with threshold of US$50,000. Two models evaluating surveillance strategies suggested that treating all CHC patients regardless of the staging of liver disease could be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: CEAs of CHC treatments need to better account for variability in their estimates. This analysis suggested that there are still circumstances where DAAs are not cost-effective. Surveillance in place of a treat-all strategy may still need to be considered as an option for deploying DAAs, particularly where acquisition cost is at the limit of affordability for a given health system.

BACKGROUND: Around 19% of people screened by UK cardiac rehabilitation programmes report having moderate or severe symptoms of depression. These individuals are at an increased risk of cardiac mortality and morbidity, reduced quality of life and increased use of health resources compared with their non-depressed counterparts. Maximising psychological health is a goal of cardiac rehabilitation, but psychological care is patchy. OBJECTIVE(S): to examine the feasibility and acceptability of embedding enhanced psychological care (EPC) within cardiac rehabilitation, we tested the feasibility of developing/implementing EPC and documented the key uncertainties associated with undertaking a definitive evaluation. DESIGN: a two-stage multimethods study; a feasibility study and a qualitative evaluation, followed by an external pilot cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a nested qualitative study. SETTING: UK comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation teams. PARTICIPANTS: Adults eligible for cardiac rehabilitation following an acute coronary syndrome with new-onset depressive symptoms on initial nurse assessment. Patients who had received treatment for depression in the preceding 6 months were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: the EPC intervention comprised nurse-led mental health-care co-ordination and behavioural activation within cardiac rehabilitation. The comparator was usual cardiac rehabilitation care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Measures at baseline, and at the 5- (feasibility and pilot) and 8-month follow-ups (pilot only). Process measures related to cardiac team and patient recruitment, and participant retention. Outcomes included depressive symptoms, cardiac mortality and morbidity, anxiety, health-related quality of life and service resource use. Interviews explored participant and nurses' views and experiences. RESULTS: Between September 2014 and May 2015, five nurses from four teams recruited participants into the feasibility study. of the 203 patients screened, 30 were eligible and nine took part (the target was 20 participants). At interview, participants and nurses gave valuable insights into the EPC intervention design and delivery. Although acceptable, the EPC delivery was challenging for nurses (e.g. the ability to allocate sufficient time within existing workloads) and the intervention was modified accordingly. Between December 2014 and February 2015, 8 out of 20 teams approached agreed to participate in the pilot RCT [five were randomised to the EPC arm and three were randomised to the usual-care (UC) arm]. of the 614 patients screened, 55 were eligible and 29 took part (the target was 43 participants). At baseline, the trial arms were well matched for sex and ethnicity, although the EPC arm participants were younger, from more deprived areas and had higher depression scores than the UC participants. A total of 27 out of 29 participants were followed up at 5 months. Interviews with 18 participants (12 in the EPC arm and six in the UC arm) and seven nurses who delivered EPC identified that both groups acknowledged the importance of receiving psychological support embedded within routine cardiac rehabilitation. For those experiencing/delivering EPC, the intervention was broadly acceptable, albeit challenging to deliver within existing care. LIMITATIONS: Both the feasibility and the pilot studies encountered significant challenges in recruiting patients, which limited the power of the pilot study analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac rehabilitation nurses can be trained to deliver EPC. Although valued by both patients and nurses, organisational and workload constraints were significant barriers to implementation in participating teams, suggesting that future research may require a modified approach to intervention delivery within current service arrangements. We obtained important data informing definitive research regarding participant recruitment and retention, and optimal methods of data collection. FUTURE RESEARCH: Consideration should be given to the delivery of EPC by dedicated mental health practitioners, working closely with cardiac rehabilitation services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN34701576. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BACKGROUND: Rates of common mental health problems are much higher in prison populations, but access to primary care mental health support falls short of community equivalence. Discontinuity of care on release is the norm and is further complicated by substance use and a range of social problems, e.g. homelessness. To address these problems, we worked with criminal justice, third sector social inclusion services, health services and people with lived experiences (peer researchers), to develop a complex collaborative care intervention aimed at supporting men with common mental health problems near to and following release from prison. This paper describes an external pilot trial to test the feasibility of a full randomised controlled trial. METHODS: Eligible individuals with 4 to 16 weeks left to serve were screened to assess for common mental health problems. Participants were then randomised at a ratio of 2:1 allocation to ENGAGER plus standard care (intervention) or standard care alone (treatment as usual). Participants were followed up at 1 and 3 months' post release. Success criteria for this pilot trial were to meet the recruitment target sample size of 60 participants, to follow up at least 50% of participants at 3 months' post release from prison, and to deliver the ENGAGER intervention. Estimates of recruitment and retention rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are reported. Descriptive analyses included summaries (percentages or means) for participant demographics, and baseline characteristics are reported. RESULTS: Recruitment target was met with 60 participants randomised in 9 months. The average retention rates were 73% at 1 month [95% CI 61 to 83] and 47% at 3 months follow-up [95% CI 35 to 59]. Ninety percent of participants allocated to the intervention successfully engaged with a practitioner before release and 70% engaged following release. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot confirms the feasibility of conducting a randomised trial for prison leavers with common mental health problems. Based on this pilot study and some minor changes to the trial design and intervention, a full two-centre randomised trial assessing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the ENGAGER intervention is currently underway.

Objective to test the feasibility of running a randomised controlled trial of a preconsultation web-based intervention (Presenting Asking Checking Expressing (PACE-D)) to improve the quality of care and clinical outcomes in patients with diabetes. Design and setting a feasibility study (with randomisation) conducted at outpatient diabetes clinics at two secondary care hospitals in Devon, UK. Participants People with diabetes (type 1 and type 2) attending secondary care general diabetes outpatient clinics. Intervention the PACE-D, a web-based tool adapted for patients with diabetes to use before their consultation to generate an agenda of topics to discuss with their diabetologist. Outcomes the percentage of eligible patients who were recruited and the percentage of participants for whom routine glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) data (the putative primary outcome) could be extracted from medical notes and who completed secondary outcome assessments via questionnaire at follow-up were reported. Results in contrast with the planned recruitment of 120 participants, only 71 participants were randomised during the 7-month recruitment period. This comprised 18.7% (95% CI 14.9% to 23.0%) of those who were eligible. Mean (SD) age of the participants was 56.5 (12.4) years and 66.2% had type 1 diabetes. Thirty-eight patients were randomised to the intervention arm and 33 to the control arm. HbA1c data were available for only 73% (95% CI 61% to 83%) of participants at the 6 months follow-up. The questionnaire-based data were collected for 66% (95% CI 54% to 77%) of the participants at 6 months follow-up. Participants reported that the PACE-D tool was easy to use. Conclusions a randomised controlled trial of the preconsultation web-based intervention as set out in our current protocol is not feasible without significant modification to improve recruitment and follow-up of participants. The study also provides insights into the feasibility and challenges of conducting complex intervention trials in everyday clinical practice. Trial registration ISRCTN75070242.

BackgroundDepression affects as many as one in five people in their lifetime and often runs a recurrent lifetime course. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) is an effective psychosocial approach that aims to help people at risk of depressive relapse to learn skills to stay well. However, there is an ‘implementation cliff’: access to those who could benefit from MBCT is variable and little is known about why that is the case, and how to promote sustainable implementation. As such, this study fills a gap in the literature about the implementation of MBCT.ObjectivesTo describe the existing provision of MBCT in the UK NHS, develop an understanding of the perceived costs and benefits of MBCT implementation, and explore the barriers and critical success factors for enhanced accessibility. We aimed to synthesise the evidence from multiple data sources to create an explanatory framework of the how and why of implementation, and to co-develop an implementation resource with key stakeholders.DesignA two-phase qualitative, exploratory and explanatory study, which was conceptually underpinned by the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services framework.SettingUK NHS services.MethodsPhase 1 involved interviews with participants from 40 areas across the UK about the current provision of MBCT. Phase 2 involved 10 case studies purposively sampled with differing degrees of MBCT provision, and from each UK country. Case study methods included interviews with key stakeholders, including commissioners, managers, MBCT practitioners and teachers, and service users. Observations were conducted and key documents were also collected. Data were analysed using a modified approach to framework analysis. Emerging findings were verified through stakeholder discussions and workshops.ResultsPhase 1: access to and the format of MBCT provision across the NHS remains variable. NHS services have typically adapted MBCT to their context and its integration into care pathways was also highly variable even within the same trust or health board. Participants’ accounts revealed stories of implementation journeys that were driven by committed individuals that were sometimes met by management commitment. Phase 2: a number of explanations emerged that explained successful implementation. Critically, facilitation was the central role of the MBCT implementers, who were self-designated individuals who ‘championed’ implementation, created networks and over time mobilised top-down organisational support. Our explanatory framework mapped out a prototypical implementation journey, often over many years. This involved implementers working through grassroots initiatives and over time mobilising top-down organisational support, and a continual fitting of evidence, with the MBCT intervention, contextual factors and the training/supervision of MBCT teachers. Key pivot points in the journey provided windows of challenge or opportunity.LimitationsThe findings are largely based on informants’ accounts and, therefore, are at risk of the bias of self-reporting.ConclusionsAlthough access to MBCT across the UK is improving, it remains very patchy. This study provides an explanatory framework that helps us understand what facilitates and supports sustainable MBCT implementation.Future workThe framework and stakeholder workshops are being used to develop online implementation guidance.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Background. Immunosuppression is required in kidney transplantation to prevent rejection and prolong graft survival. We conducted an economic evaluation to support England's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in developing updated guidance on the use of immunosuppression, incorporating new immunosuppressive agents, and addressing changes in pricing and the evidence base. Methods. A discrete-time state transition model was developed to simulate adult kidney transplant patients over their lifetime. A total of 16 different regimens were modelled to assess the cost-effectiveness of basiliximab and rabbit antithymocyte globulin (rabbit ATG) as induction agents (with no antibody induction as a comparator) and immediate-release tacrolimus, prolonged-release tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolate sodium, sirolimus, everolimus and belatacept as maintenance agents (with ciclosporin and azathioprine as comparators). Graft survival was extrapolated from acute rejection rates, graft function and post-transplant diabetes rates, all estimated at 12months post-transplantation. National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services costs were included. Cost-effectiveness thresholds of £20 000 and £30 000 per quality-adjusted life year were used. Results. Basiliximab was predicted to be more effective and less costly than rabbit ATG and induction without antibodies. Immediate-release tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil were cost-effective as maintenance therapies. Other therapies were either more expensive and less effective or would only be costeffective if a threshold in excess of £100 000 per quality-adjusted life year were used. Conclusions. A regimen comprising induction with basiliximab, followed by maintenance therapy with immediate-release tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil, is likely to be effective for uncomplicated adult kidney transplant patients and a costeffective use of NHS resources.

BACKGROUND: Eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) using direct-acting agents (DAA) has been associated with a financial burden to health authorities worldwide. We aimed to evaluate the guideline-based treatment costs by DAAs from the perspective of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (BMoH). METHODS: the activity based costing method was used to estimate the cost for monitoring/treatment of genotype-1 (GT1) HCV patients by the following strategies: peg-interferon (PEG-IFN)/ribavirin (RBV) for 48 weeks, PEG-IFN/RBV plus boceprevir (BOC) or telaprevir (TEL) for 48 weeks, and sofosbuvir (SOF) plus daclastavir (DCV) or simeprevir (SIM) for 12 weeks. Costs were reported in United States Dollars without (US$) and with adjustment for purchasing power parity (PPP$). Drug costs were collected at the National Database of Health Prices and an overview of the literature was performed to assess effectiveness of SOF/DCV and SOF/SIM regimens in real-world cohorts. RESULTS: Treatment costs of GT1-HCV patients were PPP$ 43,176.28 (US$ 24,020.16) for PEG-IFN/RBV, PPP$ 71,196.03 (US$ 39,578.23) for PEG-IFN/RBV/BOC and PPP$ 86,250.33 (US$ 47,946.92) for PEG-IFN/RBV/TEL. Treatment by all-oral interferon-free regimens were the less expensive approach: PPP$ 19,761.72 (US$ 10,985.90) for SOF/DCV and PPP$ 21,590.91 (US$ 12,002.75) for SOF/SIM. The overview reported HCV eradication in up to 98% for SOF/DCV and 96% for SOF/SIM. CONCLUSION: Strategies with all oral interferon-free might lead to lower costs for management of GT1-HCV patients compared to IFN-based regimens in Brazil. This occurred mainly because of high discounts over international DAA prices due to negotiation between BMoH and pharmaceutical industries.

Objective: Given recent concerns regarding general practitioner (GP) workforce capacity, we aimed to describe GPs' career intentions, especially those which might impact on GP workforce availability over the next 5 years. Design: Census survey, conducted between April and June 2016 using postal and online responses, of all GPs on the National Health Service performers list and eligible to practise in primary care. Two reminders were used as necessary. Setting: South West England (population 3.5 million), a region with low overall socioeconomic deprivation. Participants: Eligible GPs were 2248 out of 3370 (67% response rate). Main outcome measures: Reported likelihood of permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care or of taking a career break within the next 5 years and present morale weighted for nonresponse. Results: Responders included 2177 GPs engaged in patient care. of these, 863 (37% weighted, 95% CI 35% to 39%) reported a high likelihood of quitting direct patient care within the next 5 years. Overall, 1535 (70% weighted, 95% CI 68% to 72%) respondents reported a career intention that would negatively impact GP workforce capacity over the next 5 years, through permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care, or through taking a career break. GP age was an important predictor of career intentions; sharp increases in the proportion of GPs intending to quit patient care were evident from 52 years. Only 305 (14% weighted, 95% CI 13% to 16%) reported high morale, while 1195 (54% weighted, 95% CI 52% to 56%) reported low morale. Low morale was particularly common among GP partners. Current morale strongly predicted GPs' career intentions; those with very low morale were particularly likely to report intentions to quit patient care or to take a career break. Conclusions: a substantial majority of GPs in South West England report low morale. Many are considering career intentions which, if implemented, would adversely impact GP workforce capacity within a short time period. Study registration: NIHR HS&DR - 14/196/02, UKCRN ID 20700.

BACKGROUND: Around 17% of people eligible for UK cardiac rehabilitation programmes following an acute coronary syndrome report moderate or severe depressive symptoms. While maximising psychological health is a core goal of cardiac rehabilitation, psychological care can be fragmented and patchy. This study tests the feasibility and acceptability of embedding enhanced psychological care, composed of two management strategies of proven effectiveness in other settings (nurse-led mental health care coordination and behavioural activation), within the cardiac rehabilitation care pathway. METHODS/DESIGN: This study tests the uncertainties associated with a large-scale evaluation by conducting an external pilot trial with a nested qualitative study. We aim to recruit and randomise eight comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation teams (clusters) to intervention (embedding enhanced psychological care into routine cardiac rehabilitation programmes) or control (routine cardiac rehabilitation programmes alone) arms. Up to 64 patients (eight per team) identified with depressive symptoms upon initial assessment by the cardiac rehabilitation team will be recruited, and study measures will be administered at baseline (before starting rehabilitation) and at 5 months and 8 months post baseline. Outcomes include depressive symptoms, cardiac mortality and morbidity, anxiety, health-related quality of life and service resource use. Trial data on cardiac team and patient recruitment, and the retention and flow of patients through treatment will be used to assess intervention feasibility and acceptability. Qualitative interviews will be undertaken to explore trial participants' and cardiac rehabilitation nurses' views and experiences of the trial methods and intervention, and to identify reasons why patients declined to take part in the trial. Outcome data will inform a sample size calculation for a definitive trial. DISCUSSION: the pilot trial and qualitative study will inform the design of a fully powered cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the provision of enhanced psychological care within cardiac rehabilitation programmes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN34701576 (Registered 29 May 2014).

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is a long-term irreversible decline in kidney function requiring renal replacement therapy: kidney transplantation, haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis. The preferred option is kidney transplantation, followed by immunosuppressive therapy (induction and maintenance therapy) to reduce the risk of kidney rejection and prolong graft survival. OBJECTIVES: to review and update the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of basiliximab (BAS) (Simulect(®), Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd) and rabbit anti-human thymocyte immunoglobulin (rATG) (Thymoglobulin(®), Sanofi) as induction therapy, and immediate-release tacrolimus (TAC) (Adoport(®), Sandoz; Capexion(®), Mylan; Modigraf(®), Astellas Pharma; Perixis(®), Accord Healthcare; Prograf(®), Astellas Pharma; Tacni(®), Teva; Vivadex(®), Dexcel Pharma), prolonged-release tacrolimus (Advagraf(®) Astellas Pharma), belatacept (BEL) (Nulojix(®), Bristol-Myers Squibb), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (Arzip(®), Zentiva; CellCept(®), Roche Products; Myfenax(®), Teva), mycophenolate sodium (MPS) (Myfortic(®), Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd), sirolimus (SRL) (Rapamune(®), Pfizer) and everolimus (EVL) (Certican(®), Novartis) as maintenance therapy in adult renal transplantation. METHODS: Clinical effectiveness searches were conducted until 18 November 2014 in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Wiley Online Library) and Web of Science (via ISI), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment (The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library) and Health Management Information Consortium (via Ovid). Cost-effectiveness searches were conducted until 18 November 2014 using a costs or economic literature search filter in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (via Wiley Online Library), Web of Science (via ISI), Health Economic Evaluations Database (via Wiley Online Library) and the American Economic Association's electronic bibliography (via EconLit, EBSCOhost). Included studies were selected according to predefined methods and criteria. A random-effects model was used to analyse clinical effectiveness data (odds ratios for binary data and mean differences for continuous data). Network meta-analyses were undertaken within a Bayesian framework. A new discrete time-state transition economic model (semi-Markov) was developed, with acute rejection, graft function (GRF) and new-onset diabetes mellitus used to extrapolate graft survival. Recipients were assumed to be in one of three health states: functioning graft, graft loss or death. RESULTS: Eighty-nine randomised controlled trials (RCTs), of variable quality, were included. For induction therapy, no treatment appeared more effective than another in reducing graft loss or mortality. Compared with placebo/no induction, rATG and BAS appeared more effective in reducing biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) and BAS appeared more effective at improving GRF. For maintenance therapy, no treatment was better for all outcomes and no treatment appeared most effective at reducing graft loss. BEL + MMF appeared more effective than TAC + MMF and SRL + MMF at reducing mortality. MMF + CSA (ciclosporin), TAC + MMF, SRL + TAC, TAC + AZA (azathioprine) and EVL + CSA appeared more effective than CSA + AZA and EVL + MPS at reducing BPAR. SRL + AZA, TAC + AZA, TAC + MMF and BEL + MMF appeared to improve GRF compared with CSA + AZA and MMF + CSA. In the base-case deterministic and probabilistic analyses, BAS, MMF and TAC were predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). When comparing all regimens, only BAS + TAC + MMF was cost-effective at £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY. LIMITATIONS: for included trials, there was substantial methodological heterogeneity, few trials reported follow-up beyond 1 year, and there were insufficient data to perform subgroup analysis. Treatment discontinuation and switching were not modelled. FUTURE WORK: High-quality, better-reported, longer-term RCTs are needed. Ideally, these would be sufficiently powered for subgroup analysis and include health-related quality of life as an outcome. CONCLUSION: Only a regimen of BAS induction followed by maintenance with TAC and MMF is likely to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013189. FUNDING: the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is a long-term irreversible decline in kidney function requiring kidney transplantation, haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis. The preferred option is kidney transplantation followed by induction and maintenance immunosuppressive therapy to reduce the risk of kidney rejection and prolong graft survival. OBJECTIVES: to systematically review and update the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of basiliximab (BAS) (Simulect,(®) Novartis Pharmaceuticals) and rabbit antihuman thymocyte immunoglobulin (Thymoglobuline,(®) Sanofi) as induction therapy and immediate-release tacrolimus [Adoport(®) (Sandoz); Capexion(®) (Mylan); Modigraf(®) (Astellas Pharma); Perixis(®) (Accord Healthcare); Prograf(®) (Astellas Pharma); Tacni(®) (Teva); Vivadex(®) (Dexcel Pharma)], prolonged-release tacrolimus (Advagraf,(®) Astellas Pharma); belatacept (BEL) (Nulojix,(®) Bristol-Myers Squibb), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) [Arzip(®) (Zentiva), CellCept(®) (Roche Products), Myfenax(®) (Teva), generic MMF is manufactured by Accord Healthcare, Actavis, Arrow Pharmaceuticals, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Mylan, Sandoz and Wockhardt], mycophenolate sodium, sirolimus (Rapamune,(®) Pfizer) and everolimus (Certican,(®) Novartis Pharmaceuticals) as maintenance therapy in children and adolescents undergoing renal transplantation. DATA SOURCES: Clinical effectiveness searches were conducted to 7 January 2015 in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Wiley Online Library) and Web of Science [via Institute for Scientific Information (ISI)], Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) (The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library) and Health Management Information Consortium (via Ovid). Cost-effectiveness searches were conducted to 15 January 2015 using a costs or economic literature search filter in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), NHS Economic Evaluation Databases (via Wiley Online Library), Web of Science (via ISI), Health Economic Evaluations Database (via Wiley Online Library) and EconLit (via EBSCOhost). REVIEW METHODS: Titles and abstracts were screened according to predefined inclusion criteria, as were full texts of identified studies. Included studies were extracted and quality appraised. Data were meta-analysed when appropriate. A new discrete time state transition economic model (semi-Markov) was developed; graft function, and incidences of acute rejection and new-onset diabetes mellitus were used to extrapolate graft survival. Recipients were assumed to be in one of three health states: functioning graft, graft loss or death. RESULTS: Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and four non-RCTs were included. The RCTs only evaluated BAS and tacrolimus (TAC). No statistically significant differences in key outcomes were found between BAS and placebo/no induction. Statistically significantly higher graft function (p 

Purpose – Schools are an important setting for a wide variety of activities to promote health. The purpose of this paper is to map the different types of health promotion programmes and activities in schools, to estimate the amount of published evaluations of health promotion within UK schools, and to identify any provisional “candidate programme theories” to inform a planned theory-driven systematic review. Design/methodology/approach – Review of reviews: in total, 67 published systematic reviews of health promotion in schools were identified, from which a sub-sample of 28 systematic reviews (on 14 health topics) were retrieved for more detailed reading. Findings – Key dimensions of programme design and delivery fell mainly under the following categories: the problem and age-group of children targeted, who delivers the programme and how, and the scale and theoretical underpinning of the programme. Candidate programme theories spanned both effectiveness factors and aspects of programme implementation. Research limitations/implications – Few detailed “candidate theories” emerged for explaining how and why health promotion can more successfully implemented in different schools. Practical implications – There are five or more systematic reviews of studies of health promotion programmes in schools which target: smoking prevention; physical activity; sexual health; emotional and behavioural health and well-being; mental health; substance abuse; obesity/overweight. This suggests probable duplication of health problem-specific systematic reviews. Originality/value – the findings highlight the considerable diversity of health promotion in schools, and specifies key dimensions of this diversity. They underline the need to understand better how, why, and in what circumstances health promotion can be successfully implemented in different schools and education systems.

Background: Third sector organisations (TSOs) are a well-established component of health care provision in the UK's NHS and other health systems, but little is known about how they use research and other forms of knowledge in their work. There is an emerging body of evidence exploring these issues but there is no review of this literature. This scoping review summarises what is known about how health and social care TSOs use research and other forms of knowledge in their work. Methods: a systematic search of electronic databases was carried out with initial exploratory searching of knowledge mobilisation websites, contacting authors, and hand searching of journals. The literature was narratively summarised to describe how TSOs use knowledge in decision making. Results: Ten qualitative and mixed methods studies were retrieved. They show that TSOs wish to be "evidence-informed" in their decision making, and organisational context influences the kinds of research and knowledge they prefer, as well as how they use it. Barriers to research use include time, staff skill, resources and the acontextual nature of some academic research. Appropriate approaches to knowledge mobilisation may include using research intermediaries, involving TSOs in research, and better description of interventions and contexts in academic publications to aid applying it in the multi-disciplinary contexts of TSOs. TSOs identified specific benefits of using research, such as confidence that services were good quality, ability to negotiate with stakeholders and funders, and saving time and resources through implementing interventions shown to be effective. The small number of included studies means the findings need further confirmation through primary research. Conclusions: As the contribution of health and social care TSOs to service delivery is growing, the need to understand how they mobilise research and other forms of knowledge will continue. The research community could 1) develop relationships with TSOs to support the design and development of research projects, 2) use a range of methods to evaluate interventions to facilitate TSOs applying them to their organisational contexts and 3) improve our understanding of how TSOs use knowledge, through the use of complementary research methods, such as a realist review or ethnography.

BACKGROUND: Schools have long been viewed as a good setting in which to encourage healthy lifestyles amongst children, and schools in many countries aspire to more comprehensive, integrated approaches to health promotion. Recent reviews have identified evidence of the effects of school health promotion on children's and young people's health. However, understanding of how such programmes can be implemented in schools is more limited. METHODS: We conducted a realist review to identify the conditions and actions which lead to the successful implementation of health promotion programmes in schools. We used the international literature to develop programme theories which were then tested using evaluations of school health promotion programmes conducted in the United Kingdom (UK). Iterative searching and screening was conducted to identify sources and clear criteria applied for appraisal of included sources. A review advisory group comprising educational and public health practitioners, commissioners, and academics was established at the outset. RESULTS: in consultation with the review advisory group, we developed four programme theories (preparing for implementation, initial implementation, embedding into routine practice, adaptation and evolution); these were then refined using the UK evaluations in the review. This enabled us to identify transferable mechanisms and enabling and constraining contexts and investigate how the operation of mechanisms differed in different contexts. We also identified steps that should be taken at a senior level in relation to preparing for implementation (which revolved around negotiation about programme delivery) and initial implementation (which centred on facilitation, support, and reciprocity-the latter for both programme deliverers and pupils). However, the depth and rigour of evidence concerning embedding into routine practice and adaptation and evolution was limited. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide guidance for the design, implementation, and evaluation of health promotion in schools and identify the areas where further research is needed.

OBJECTIVES: to identify and understand, through data from multiple sources, some of the factors that affect authors' and editors' decisions to use reporting guidelines in the publication of health research. DESIGN: Mixed methods study comprising an online survey and semi-structured interviews with a sample of authors (online survey: n = 56; response rate = 32%; semi-structured interviews: n = 5) and journal editors (online survey: n = 43; response rate = 27%; semi-structured interviews: n = 6) involved in publishing health and medical research. Participants were recruited from an earlier study examining the effectiveness of the TREND reporting guideline. RESULTS: Four types of factors interacted to affect authors' and editors' likelihood of reporting guideline use; individual (e.g. having multiple reasons for use of reporting guidelines); the professional culture in which people work; environmental (e.g. policies of journals); and, practical (e.g. having time to use reporting guidelines). Having multiple reasons for using reporting guidelines was a particularly salient factor in facilitating reporting guidelines use for both groups of participants. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the completeness and consistency of reporting of research studies is critical to the integrity and synthesis of health research. The use of reporting guidelines offers one potentially efficient and effective means for achieving this, but decisions to use (or not use) reporting guidelines take many factors into account. These findings could be used to inform future studies that might, for example, test the factors that we have identified within a wider theoretical framework for understanding changes in professional practices. The use of reporting guidelines by senior professionals appears to shape the expectations of what constitutes best practice and can be assimilated into the culture of a field or discipline. Without evidence of effectiveness of reporting guidelines, and sustained, multifaceted efforts to improve reporting, little progress seems likely to be made.

Background: Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) is a cost-effective psychosocial prevention programme that helps people with recurrent depression stay well in the long term. It was singled out in the 2009 National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) Depression Guideline as a key priority for implementation. Despite good evidence and guideline recommendations, its roll-out and accessibility across the UK appears to be limited and inequitably distributed. The study aims to describe the current state of MBCT accessibility and implementation across the UK, develop an explanatory framework of what is hindering and facilitating its progress in different areas, and develop an Implementation Plan and related resources to promote better and more equitable availability and use of MBCT within the UK National Health Service.Methods/Design: This project is a two-phase qualitative, exploratory and explanatory research study, using an interview survey and in-depth case studies theoretically underpinned by the Promoting Action on Implementation in Health Services (PARIHS) framework. Interviews will be conducted with stakeholders involved in commissioning, managing and implementing MBCT services in each of the four UK countries, and will include areas where MBCT services are being implemented successfully and where implementation is not working well. In-depth case studies will be undertaken on a range of MBCT services to develop a detailed understanding of the barriers and facilitators to implementation. Guided by the study's conceptual framework, data will be synthesized across Phase 1 and Phase 2 to develop a fit for purpose implementation plan.Discussion: Promoting the uptake of evidence-based treatments into routine practice and understanding what influences these processes has the potential to support the adoption and spread of nationally recommended interventions like MBCT. This study could inform a larger scale implementation trial and feed into future implementation of MBCT with other long-term conditions and associated co-morbidities. It could also inform the implementation of interventions that are acceptable and effective, but are not widely accessible or implemented. © 2014 Rycroft-Malone et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

BACKGROUND: a substantial minority of adolescents suffer from depression and it is associated with increased risk of suicide, social and educational impairment, and mental health problems in adulthood. A recently conducted randomized controlled trial in England evaluated the effectiveness of a manualized universally delivered age-appropriate CBT programme in school classrooms. The cost-effectiveness of the programme for preventing low mood and depression for all participants from a health and social care sector perspective needs to be determined. METHODS: a trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis based on a cluster-randomized controlled trial (trial registration--ISRCTN 19083628) comparing classroom-based CBT with usual school provision of Personal Social and Health Education. Per-student cost of intervention was estimated from programme records. The study was undertaken in eight mixed-sex U.K. secondary schools, and included 3,357 school children aged 12 to 16 years (in the two trial arms evaluated in the cost-effectiveness analysis). The main outcome measures were individual self-reported data on care costs, Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs, based on the EQ-5D health-related quality-of-life instrument) and symptoms of depression (Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire) at baseline, 6 and 12 months. RESULTS: Although there was lower quality-adjusted life-years over 12 months (-.05 QALYs per person, 95% confidence interval -.09 to -.005, p =. 03) with CBT, this is a 'clinically' negligible difference, which was not found in the complete case analyses. There was little evidence of any between-arm differences in SMFQ scores (0.19, 95% CI -0.57 to 0.95, p =. 62), or costs (£142, 95% CI -£132 to £415, p =. 31) per person for CBT versus usual school provision. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that the universal provision of classroom-based CBT is unlikely to be either more effective or less costly than usual school provision.

This paper describes the historical origins and purpose of 'evidence-based practice' and describes the barriers to the growth of evidence-based practice within dentistry. It describes a new research agenda-setting process for dentistry, which includes identifying and prioritising the topics of most relevance to the work of primary dental care practitioners. By undertaking the work described in this paper we were striving to make research more relevant to the day to day decisions made by dentists in practice by introducing a new process, the intention being to promote and promulgate the practice of evidence-based dentistry.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed how the Transparent Reporting of Evaluations with Nonrandomized Designs (TREND) reporting guideline was used by authors and journal editors in journals' instructions to authors. We also evaluated its impact on reporting completeness and study quality. METHODS: We extracted data from publications that cited TREND on how TREND was used in those reports; we also extracted information on journals' instructions to authors. We then undertook a case-control study of relevant publications to evaluate the impact of using TREND. RESULTS: Between 2004 and 2013, TREND was cited 412 times, but it was only evidently applied to study reports 47 times. TREND was specifically mentioned 14 times in the sample of 61 instructions to authors. Some evidence suggested that use of TREND was associated with more comprehensive reporting and higher study quality ratings. CONCLUSIONS: TREND appeared to be underutilized by authors and journal editors despite its potential application and benefits. We found evidence that suggested that using TREND could contribute to more transparent and complete study reports. Even when authors reported using TREND, reporting completeness was still suboptimal.

This paper describes the process set up by the BDA and the Shirley Glasstone Hughes (SGH) Trust as a result of their will to involve dental practitioners in dental research prioritisation, so that funding could be directed towards research that practitioners would find useful. The paper considers the technical, operational and economic feasibility of using an online system to determine the research priorities of primary care practitioners and describes the extent to which the system worked in practice. The aim of the work described was to ensure that the research commissioned by SGH Trust actually served practitioners' needs and promotes the use of evidence in general dental practice.

Lysosomal storage disorders (LSDs) comprise more than 50 extremely rare, inherited metabolic diseases resulting from a deficiency of specific lysosomal enzymes required for normal macromolecular metabolism. The National Collaborative Study for Lysosomal Storage Disorders (NCS-LSD), was a longitudinal cohort study which collected prospective and retrospective clinical data, and patient-reported data from adults and children with a confirmed diagnosis of Gaucher disease, Fabry disease, mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS I), mucopolysaccharidosis type II (MPS II), Pompe disease and Niemann Pick disease type C (NPC) in the UK. The study aimed to determine the natural history of these conditions and estimate the effectiveness and cost of therapies. Clinical outcomes were chosen to reflect disease progression. Age- and gender-adjusted treatment effects were estimated using generalised linear mixed models. Treated patients contributed data before and during treatment while untreated patients contributed natural history data. A total of 711 adults and children were recruited to this study from the seven LSD treatment centres in England. Data was collected from 2008 to 2011. This paper describes the methods used to collect and analyse clinical data for this study. The clinical findings are reported separately in a series of condition-specific articles in this issue.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes is a chronic condition associated with many long-term complications. People with diabetes need to actively manage their condition, which can be complex. In consultations with healthcare professionals, patients receive advice about their diabetes but do not always discuss things which concern them, perhaps because of the perceived limited time or embarrassment. We want to test a 'preconsultation' intervention in which the patient is supported by a healthcare assistant to complete a web-based intervention aimed at producing an agenda to help them identify important areas for discussion in the consultation. Use of this agenda may enable the patient to play a more active role in that consultation and consequently become more confident, and hence more successful, in managing their condition. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: in this pilot randomised controlled trial, 120 people with diabetes will be randomised with equal allocation to receive the intervention or usual clinical care. The primary outcome is reduction in glycosylated haemoglobin(HbA1c). Secondary outcomes are patient-reported communication, enablement, self-care activity, diabetes-dependent quality of life, empowerment, satisfaction, health-related quality of life and resource use. The aim of the pilot study was to estimate parameters to inform the design of the definitive trial. Follow-up on quantitative outcomes will be at 3 and 6 months. A nested qualitative study will collect data on the patients' experiences of producing an agenda. Resource use data and medication use will also be collected via a review of medical records for a sample of participants. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approval was granted by the NHS Research Ethics Committee North West-Preston (13/NW/0123). Dissemination will include publication of quantitative and qualitative findings, and experience of public involvement in peer-reviewed journals. Results will also be disseminated to trial participants via workshops led by lay coapplicants. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN75070242.

Objectives: to describe the development process for defining an appropriate model structure for the economic evaluation of test-treatment strategies for patients with monogenic diabetes (caused by mutations in the GCK, HNF1A or HNF4A genes). Design: Experts were consulted to identify and define realistic test-treatment strategies and care pathways. A systematic assessment of published diabetes models was undertaken to inform the model structure. Setting: National Health Service in England and Wales. Participants: Experts in monogenic diabetes whose collective expertise spans the length of the patient care pathway. Primary and secondary outcomes: a defined model structure, including the test-treatment strategies, and the selection of a published diabetes model appropriate for the economic evaluation of strategies to identify patients with monogenic diabetes. Results: Five monogenic diabetes test-treatment strategies were defined: no testing of any kind, referral for genetic testing based on clinical features as noted by clinicians, referral for genetic testing based on the results of a clinical prediction model, referral for genetic testing based on the results of biochemical and immunological tests, referral for genetic testing for all patients with a diagnosis of diabetes under the age of 30 years. The systematic assessment of diabetes models identified the IMS CORE Diabetes Model (IMS CDM) as a good candidate for modelling the long-term outcomes and costs of the test-treatment strategies for monogenic diabetes. The short-term test-treatment events will be modelled using a decision tree which will feed into the IMS CDM. Conclusions: Defining a model structure for any economic evaluation requires decisions to be made. Expert consultation and the explicit use of critical appraisal can inform these decisions. Although arbitrary choices have still been made, decision modelling allows investigation into such choices and the impact of assumptions that have to be made due to a lack of data.

OBJECTIVES: the aim of this study was to describe the evolution of a cost-utility model used to inform the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's (NICE) most recent decisions on the cost-utility of drug treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD), and to explore the impact of structural assumptions on the cost-utility results. METHODS: Changes informed by noted limitations of the decision model used in NICE's previous decisions (in 2006) were made cumulatively to the original decision model for donepezil compared with best supportive care (for patients with mild to moderate AD). Deterministic and probabilistic analyses were undertaken for each cumulative change of the model. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of parameter estimates and structural assumptions was also calculated. RESULTS: Cumulative changes to the decision model highlighted how the results of the original model (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £81,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained) related to those of the new model (where donepezil was estimated to be cost-saving), mainly due to uncertainty in the incremental cost of donepezil treatment over best supportive care (ranging from -£600 to £3,000 per patient). The partial EVPI analysis reflected this finding where further information on treatment discontinuations and cost parameter estimates were shown to be valuable in terms of reducing decision uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing the evolution of the cost-utility model helped to identify and explore structural differences between cohort-based models and is likely to be useful for decision models in other disease areas. This approach makes the structural uncertainty explicit, forcing decision makers to address structural uncertainty in addition to parameter uncertainty.

INTRODUCTION: in 2007 the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) restricted the use of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and memantine. METHODS: we conducted a health technology assessment (HTA) of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine and memantine for the treatment of AD to re-consider and up-date the evidence base used to inform the 2007 NICE decision. The systematic review of effectiveness targeted randomised controlled trials. A comprehensive search, including MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library, was conducted from January 2004 to March 2010. All key review steps were done by two reviewers. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted. The cost-effectiveness was assessed using a cohort-based model with three health states: pre-institutionalised, institutionalised and dead. The perspective was NHS and Personal Social Services and the cost year 2009. RESULTS: confidence about the size and statistical significance of the estimates of effect of galantamine, rivastigmine and memantine improved on function and global impact in particular. Cost-effectiveness also changed. For donepezil, galantamine and rivastigmine, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in 2004 was above £50,000; in 2010 the same drugs 'dominated' best supportive care (improved clinical outcome at reduced cost). This was primarily because of changes in the modelled costs of introducing the drugs. For memantine, the cost-effectiveness also improved from a range of £37-53,000 per QALY gained to a base-case of £32,000. CONCLUSION: there has been a change in the evidence base between 2004 and 2010 consistent with the change in NICE guidance. Further evolution in cost-effectiveness estimates is possible particularly if there are changes in drug prices.

BACKGROUND: Traffic calming and speed limits are major public health strategies for further reducing road injuries, especially for vulnerable pedestrians such as children and the elderly. We conducted a cost-benefit analysis (CBA-favoured by transport economists) alongside a cost-utility analysis (CUA-favoured by health economists) of mandatory 20 mph zones, providing a unique opportunity to compare assumptions and results. METHODS: a CUA from the public sector perspective and a CBA from a broader societal perspective. One-way, threshold and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: in low casualty areas the intervention was not cost-effective regardless of approach (CUA: cost per QALY = £429 800; CBA: net present value = -£25 500). In high casualty areas, the intervention was cost-effective from the CBA (a saving of £90 600), but not from the CUA [cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) = £86 500; assuming National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's benchmark for approving health technologies]. CONCLUSIONS: Mandatory 20 mph zones may be cost-effective in high casualty areas when a CBA from a societal perspective is considered. Although CBA may appear, in principle, more appropriate, the quality, age or absence of reliable data for many parameters means that there is a great deal of uncertainty and the results should be interpreted with caution.

BACKGROUND: Shared care (an enhanced information exchange over and above routine outpatient letters) is commonly used to improve care coordination and communication between a specialist and primary care services for people with long-term conditions. Evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of shared care is mixed. Informed decision-making for targeting shared care requires a greater understanding of how it works, for whom it works, in what contexts and why. This protocol outlines how realist review methods can be used to synthesise evidence on shared care for long-term conditions.A further aim of the review is to explore economic evaluations of shared care. Economic evaluations are difficult to synthesise due to problems in accounting for contextual differences that impact on resource use and opportunity costs. Realist review methods have been suggested as a way to overcome some of these issues, so this review will also assess whether realist review methods are amenable to synthesising economic evidence. METHODS/DESIGN: Database and web searching will be carried out in order to find relevant evidence to develop and test programme theories about how shared care works. The review will have two phases. Phase 1 will concentrate on the contextual conditions and mechanisms that influence how shared care works, in order to develop programme theories, which partially explain how it works. Phase 2 will focus on testing these programme theories. A Project Reference Group made up of health service professionals and people with actual experience of long-term conditions will be used to ground the study in real-life experience. Review findings will be disseminated through local and sub-national networks for integrated care and long-term conditions. DISCUSSION: This realist review will explore why and for whom shared care works, in order to support decision-makers working to improve the effectiveness of care for people outside hospital. The development of realist review methods to take into account cost and cost-effectiveness evidence is particularly innovative and challenging, and if successful will offer a new approach to synthesising economic evidence. This systematic review protocol is registered on the PROSPERO database (registration number: CRD42012002842).

Background: Nilotinib and dasatinib are now being considered as alternative treatments to imatinib as a first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). Objective: This technology assessment reviews the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML. Data sources: Databases [including MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration website and the European Medicines Agency website] were searched from search end date of the last technology appraisal report on this topic in October 2002 to September 2011. Review methods: a systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies; a review of surrogate relationships with survival; a review and critique of manufacturer submissions; and a model-based economic analysis. Results: Two clinical trials (dasatinib vs imatinib and nilotinib vs imatinib) were included in the effectiveness review. Survival was not significantly different for dasatinib or nilotinib compared with imatinib with the 24-month follow-up data available. The rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) were higher for patients receiving dasatinib than for those with imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 83% vs 72%, p < 0.001; MMR 46% vs 28%, p < 0.0001). The rates of CCyR and MMR were higher for patients receiving nilotinib than for those receiving imatinib for 12 months' followup (CCyR 80% vs 65%, p < 0.001; MMR 44% vs 22%, p < 0.0001). An indirect comparison analysis showed no difference between dasatinib and nilotinib for CCyR or MMR rates for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR, odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.92; MMR, odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.16). There is observational association evidence from imatinib studies supporting the use of CCyR and MMR at 12 months as surrogates for overall all-cause survival and progression-free survival in patients with CML in chronic phase. In the costeffectiveness modelling scenario, analyses were provided to reflect the extensive structural uncertainty and different approaches to estimating OS. First-line dasatinib is predicted to provide very poor value for money compared with first-line imatinib, with deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of between £256,000 and £450,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Conversely, first-line nilotinib provided favourable ICERs at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. Limitations: Immaturity of empirical trial data relative to life expectancy, forcing either reliance on surrogate relationships or cumulative survival/treatment duration assumptions. Conclusions: from the two trials available, dasatinib and nilotinib have a statistically significant advantage compared with imatinib as measured by MMR or CCyR. Taking into account the treatment pathways for patients with CML, i.e. assuming the use of secondline nilotinib, first-line nilotinib appears to be more cost-effective than first-line imatinib. Dasatinib was not cost-effective if decision thresholds of £20,000 per QALY or £30,000 per QALY were used, compared with imatinib and nilotinib. Uncertainty in the costeffectiveness analysis would be substantially reduced with better and more UK-specific data on the incidence and cost of stem cell transplantation in patients with chronic CML. Funding: the Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2012.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate and full reporting of evaluation of interventions in health research is needed for evidence synthesis and informed decision-making. Evidence suggests that biases and incomplete reporting affect the assessment of study validity and the ability to include this data in secondary research. The Transparent Reporting of Evaluations with Non-randomised Designs (TREND) reporting guideline was developed to improve the transparency and accuracy of the reporting of behavioural and public health evaluations with non-randomised designs. Evaluations of reporting guidelines have shown that they can be effective in improving reporting completeness. Although TREND occupies a niche within reporting guidelines, and despite it being 8 years since publication, no study yet has assessed its impact on reporting completeness or investigated what factors affect its use by authors and journal editors. This protocol describes two studies that aim to redress this. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Study 1 will use an observational design to examine the uptake and use of TREND by authors, and by journals in their instructions to authors. A comparison of reporting completeness and study quality of papers that do and do not use TREND to inform reporting will be made. Study 2 will use a cross-sectional survey to investigate what factors inhibit or facilitate authors' and journal editors' use of TREND. Semistructured interviews will also be conducted with a subset of authors and editors to explore findings from study 1 and the surveys in greater depth. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: These studies will generate evidence of how implementation and dissemination of the TREND guideline has affected reporting completeness in studies with experimental, non-randomised designs within behavioural and public health research. The project has received ethics approval from the Research Ethics Committee of the Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry, Universities of Exeter and Plymouth.

BACKGROUND: School-based interventions and campaigns are used to promote health and address a wide variety of public health problems. Schools are considered to be key sites for the implementation of health promotion programmes for their potential to reach the whole population in particular age-groups and instil healthy patterns of behavior early in life. However, evidence for the effectiveness of school-based health promotion interventions is highly variable. Systematic reviews of the evidence of school-based interventions tend to be highly problem- or intervention- specific, thereby missing potential generic insights into implementation and effectiveness of such programmes across problems. METHODS/DESIGN: a realist systematic review will be undertaken to explain how, why and in what circumstances schools can provide feasible settings for effective health promotion programmes in the United Kingdom (UK). The review will be conducted in two phases. Phase 1 will identify programme theories about implementation (ideas about what enables or inhibits effective health promotion to be delivered in a school setting). Phase 2 will test the programme theories so that they can be challenged, endorsed and/or refined. A Review Advisory Group of education and health professionals will be convened to help identify and choose potential programme theories, provide a 'reality check' on the clarity and explanatory strength of the mechanisms to be tested, and help shape the presentation of findings to be usable by practitioners and decision-makers. Review findings will be disseminated through liaison with decision-makers, and voluntary and professional groups in the fields of education and health.

INTRODUCTION: Unintentional injuries to children in the outdoors have a significant impact on child mortality, development and healthcare costs. This paper presents the findings of a systematic review about the effectiveness of programs that provided information, advice or education about the prevention of unintentional injuries to children under 15 years during outdoor play and leisure. METHODS: a structured search strategy was conducted in a range of databases. All report titles and abstracts were screened using pre-defined criteria. Included reports were quality appraised using a modified Graphical Appraisal Tool for Epidemiological studies (GATE) tool. All quality appraisals and data extraction were checked by a second reviewer. If not provided in the original reports, ORs and mean differences were calculated, where sufficient data were available. RESULTS: Twenty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. There was a paucity of robust study designs. The majority of studies only reported a short-term follow-up of intermediate outcome measures. Only two studies measured injury rates; both reported a reduction, but both studies also had considerable methodological weaknesses. The five studies that measured the use of protective equipment reported mixed results, although there is some evidence that suggests that more extensive educational programs (such as health fairs and media campaigns) increase their use. The 20 studies that measured behaviour, attitude or knowledge outcomes reported highly mixed results. DISCUSSION: Methodological weaknesses of the included studies limit support for a particular course of action. To better inform policy and practice, future research should (1) use robust study designs and (2) not rely on short-term proxy outcome measures.

Background: Emotional problems such as anxiety and low mood in children are common, impair everyday functioning and increase the risk of severe mental health disorders in adulthood. Relatively few children with emotional health problems are identified and referred for treatment indicating the need to investigate preventive approaches.Methods/Design: the study is designed to be a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of an efficacious school-based cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) prevention program (FRIENDS) on symptoms of anxiety and low mood in children 9 to 10 years of age. The unit of allocation is schools which are assigned to one of three conditions: school-led FRIENDS, health-led FRIENDS or treatment as usual. Assessments will be undertaken at baseline, 6 months and 12 months. The primary outcome measure is change on the Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale. Secondary outcome measures assess changes in self-esteem, worries, bullying and life satisfaction. An economic evaluation will be undertaken.Discussion: As of September 2011, 41 schools have been recruited and randomized. Final 12-month assessments are scheduled to be completed by May 2013.Trial Registration: ISRCTN23563048. © 2012 Stallard et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most commonly occurring form of dementia. It is predominantly a disease of later life, affecting 5% of those over 65 in the UK. OBJECTIVES: Review and update guidance to the NHS in England and Wales on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine [acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs)] and memantine within their licensed indications for the treatment of AD, which was issued in November 2006 (amended September 2007 and August 2009). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews and/or metaanalyses, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and ongoing research in November 2009 and updated in March 2010; this updated search revealed no new includable studies. The databases searched included the Cochrane Library (2009 Issue 4, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, PsycINFO, EconLit, ISI Web of Science Databases--Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index, and BIOSIS; the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) databases--NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment, and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects. REVIEW METHODS: the clinical effectiveness systematic review was undertaken following the principles published by the NHS CRD. We included RCTs whose population was people with AD. The intervention and comparators depended on disease severity, measured by the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). INTERVENTIONS: mild AD (MMSE 21-26)--donepezil, galantamine and rivastigmine; moderate AD (MMSE 10-20)--donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine and memantine; severe AD (MMSE < 10)--memantine. Comparators: mild AD (MMSE 21-26)--placebo or best supportive care (BSC); moderate AD (MMSE 10-20)--donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine, placebo or BSC; severe AD (MMSE < 10)--placebo or BSC. The outcomes were clinical, global, functional, behavioural, quality of life, adverse events, costs and cost-effectiveness. Where appropriate, data were pooled using pair-wise meta-analysis, multiple outcome measures, metaregression and mixedtreatment comparisons. The decision model was based broadly on the structure of the three-state Markov model described in the previous technology assessment report, based upon time to institutionalisation, parameterised with updated estimates of effectiveness, costs and utilities. RESULTS: Notwithstanding the uncertainty of our results, we found in the base case that the AChEIs are probably cost saving at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of £’30,000 per qualityadjusted life-year (QALY) for people with mild-to-moderate AD. For this class of drugs, there is a > 99% probability that the AChEIs are more cost-effective than BSC. These analyses assume that the AChEIs have no effect on survival. For the AChEIs, in people with mild to moderate AD, the probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested that donepezil is the most cost-effective, with a 28% probability of being the most cost-effective option at a WTP of £’30,000 per QALY (27% at a WTP of £’20,000 per QALY). In the deterministic results, donepezil dominates the other drugs and BSC, which, along with rivastigmine patches, are associated with greater costs and fewer QALYs. Thus, although galantamine has a slightly cheaper total cost than donepezil (£’69,592 vs £’69,624), the slightly greater QALY gains from donepezil (1.616 vs 1.617) are enough for donepezil to dominate galantamine.The probability that memantine is cost-effective in a moderate to severe cohort compared with BSC at a WTP of £’30,000 per QALY is 38% (and 28% at a WTP of £’20,000 per QALY). The deterministic ICER for memantine is £’32,100 per/QALY and the probabilistic ICER is £’36,700 per/QALY. LIMITATIONS: Trials were of 6 months maximum follow-up, lacked reporting of key outcomes, provided no subgroup analyses and used insensitive measures. Searches were limited to English language, the model does not include behavioural symptoms and there is uncertainty about the model structure and parameters. CONCLUSIONS: the additional clinical effectiveness evidence identified continues to suggest clinical benefit from the AChEIs in alleviating AD symptoms, although there is debate about the magnitude of the effect. Although there is also new evidence on the effectiveness of memantine, it remains less supportive of this drug’s use than the evidence for AChEIs. The conclusions concerning cost-effectiveness are quite different from the previous assessment. This is because both the changes in effectiveness and costs between drug use and non-drug use underlying the ICERs are very small. This leads to highly uncertain results, which are very sensitive to change. RESEARCH PRIORITIES: RCTs to include mortality, time to institutionalisation and quality of life, powered for subgroup analysis. FUNDING: the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

In children under the age of five, the majority of unintentional injuries occur in the home, with higher levels of injury morbidity and mortality being found among those from more deprived backgrounds. This paper presents the findings of a systematic review about the effectiveness of programmes in decreasing unintentional injury rates to children (aged up to 15 years) in the home. The effectiveness of the provision of home safety equipment with or without installation, safety education or a home risk assessment is presented by outcome: injury rates, installation of smoke alarms and installation of other home safety equipment. Analysis of the statistically significant evidence suggests that few programmes reduce injury rates in children except where home safety equipment is supplied in conjunction with a home risk assessment, although this effect was only evident in households where a child had previously suffered an unintentional injury. The distribution of smoke alarms alone is insufficient for improving installation rates; programmes containing an education component showed more success. Interventions integrated into wider health programmes, where trusting relationships with householders were cultivated and/or where specific safety issues identified by a community were responded to also showed greater success in increasing smoke alarm installation rates. The evidence of effectiveness on installation rates of other home safety equipment is highly mixed, although there is some evidence to suggest that installation rates always decrease after 6 months. Where stair gates are both supplied and installed, inequalities in rates of use may be reduced.

BACKGROUND: Order communication systems (OCS) are computer applications used to enter diagnostic and therapeutic patient care orders and to view test results. Many potential benefits of OCS have been identified including improvements in clinician ordering patterns, optimisation of clinical time, and aiding communication processes between clinicians and different departments. Many OCS now include computerised decision support systems (CDSS), which are information systems designed to improve clinical decision-making. CDSS match individual patient characteristics to a computerised knowledge base, and software algorithms generate patient-specific recommendations. OBJECTIVES: to investigate which CDSS in OCS are in use within the UK and the impact of CDSS in OCS for diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering compared to OCS without CDSS. To determine what features of CDSS are associated with clinician or patient acceptance of CDSS in OCS and what is known about the cost-effectiveness of CDSS in diagnostic, screening or monitoring test OCS compared to OCS without CDSS. DATA SOURCES: a generic search to identify potentially relevant studies for inclusion was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CCTR), CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects), Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database, IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers) Xplore digital library, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and EconLit, searched between 1974 and 2009 with a total of 22,109 titles and abstracts screened for inclusion. REVIEW METHODS: CDSS for diagnostic, screening and monitoring test ordering OCS in use in the UK were identified through contact with the 24 manufacturers/suppliers currently contracted by the National Project for Information Technology (NpfIT) to provide either national or specialist decision support. A generic search to identify potentially relevant studies for inclusion in the review was conducted on a range of medical, social science and economic databases. The review was undertaken using standard systematic review methods, with studies being screened for inclusion, data extracted and quality assessed by two reviewers. Results were broadly grouped according to the type of CDSS intervention and study design where possible. These were then combined using a narrative synthesis with relevant quantitative results tabulated. RESULTS: Results of the studies included in review were highly mixed and equivocal, often both within and between studies, but broadly showed a beneficial impact of the use of CDSS in conjunction with OCS over and above OCS alone. Overall, if the findings of both primary and secondary outcomes are taken into account, then CDSS significantly improved practitioner performance in 15 out of 24 studies (62.5%). Only two studies covered the cost-effectiveness of CDSS: a Dutch study reported a mean cost decrease of 3% for blood tests orders (639 euros) in each of the intervention clinics compared with a 2% (208 euros) increase in control clinics in test costs; and a Spanish study reported a significant increase in the cost of laboratory tests from 41.8 euros per patient per annum to 47.2 euros after implementation of the system. LIMITATIONS: the response rate from the survey of manufacturers and suppliers was extremely low at only 17% and much of the feedback was classified as being commercial-in-confidence (CIC). No studies were identified which assessed the features of CDSS that are associated with clinician or patient acceptance of CDSS in OCS in the test ordering process and only limited data was available on the cost-effectiveness of CDSS plus OCS compared with OCS alone and the findings highly specific. Although CDSS appears to have a potentially small positive impact on diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering, the majority of studies come from a limited number of institutions in the USA. CONCLUSIONS: If the findings of both primary and secondary outcomes are taken into account then CDSS showed a statistically significant benefit on either process or practitioner performance outcomes in nearly two-thirds of the studies. Furthermore, in four studies that assessed adverse effects of either test cancellation or delay, no significant detrimental effects in terms of additional utilisation of health-care resources or adverse events were observed. We believe the key current need is for a well designed and comprehensive survey, and on the basis of the results of this potentially for evaluation studies in the form of cluster randomised controlled trials or randomised controlled trials which incorporate process, and patient outcomes, as well as full economic evaluations alongside the trials to assess the impact of CDSS in conjunction with OCS versus OCS alone for diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering in the NHS. The economic evaluation should incorporate the full costs of potentially developing, testing, and installing the system, including staff training costs. STUDY REGISTRATION: Study registration 61.

Background
Depression in adolescents is a significant problem that impairs everyday functioning and increases the risk of severe mental health disorders in adulthood. Relatively few adolescents with depression are identified and referred for treatment indicating the need to investigate alternative preventive approaches.

Study Design
A pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of a school based prevention programme on symptoms of depression in “high risk” adolescents (aged 12-16). The unit of allocation is year groups (n=28) which are assigned to one of three conditions: an active intervention based upon cognitive behaviour therapy, attention control or treatment as usual. Assessments will be undertaken at screening, baseline, 6 months and 12 months. The primary outcome measure is change on the Short Mood and Feeling Questionnaire at 12 months. Secondary outcome measures will assess changes in negative thoughts, self esteem, anxiety, school connectedness, peer attachment, alcohol and substance misuse, bullying and self harm.

Discussion
As of August 2010, all 28 year groups (n=5023) had been recruited and the assigned interventions delivered. Final 12 month assessments are scheduled to be completed by March 2011.

Systematic reviews of studies of effectiveness are the centrepiece of evidence-based medicine and policy making. Increasingly, systematic reviews of economic evaluations are also an expected input into much evidence-based policy making, with some health economists even calling for 'an economics approach to systematic review'. This paper questions the value of conducting systematic reviews of economic evaluations to inform decision making in health care. It argues that the value of systematic reviews of economic evaluations is usually undermined by three things. Firstly, compared with effectiveness studies, there is a much wider range of factors that limit the generalisability of cost-effectiveness results, over time and between health systems and service settings, including the context-dependency of resource use and opportunity costs, and different decision contexts and budget constraints. Secondly, because economic evaluations are more explicitly intended to be decision-informing, the requirements for generalisability take primacy, and considerations of internal validity become more secondary. Thirdly, since one of the two main forms of economic evaluation - decision analytic modelling - is itself a well-developed method of evidence synthesis, in most cases the need for a comprehensive systematic review of previous economic evaluations of a particular health technology or policy choice is unwarranted. I conclude that apparent 'meta-analytic expectations' for clear and widely applicable cost-effectiveness conclusions from systematic reviews of economic evaluations are optimistic and generally futile. For more useful insights and knowledge from previous economic studies in evidence-based policy making, a more limited range of reasons for conducting systematic reviews of health economic studies is proposed.

OBJECTIVE: in the UK approximately 3% of over 50 years olds and 8% of over 70 year olds have severe (794-94 dBHL) to deafness. As deafness increased, hearing aids become increasingly ineffective. Cochelear implants can provide an alternative treatment. OBJECTIVE OF REVIEW: to bring together the research evidence through the robustness of a systematic review of the effectiveness of unilateral cochlear implants for adults. We also sought to systematically review the published literature on cost-effectiveness. TYPES OF REVIEW: Systematic review. SEARCH STRATEGY: This examined 16 electronic databases, plus bibliographies and references for published and unpublished studies from inception to june 2009. EVALUATION METHOD: Abstracts were independently assessed against inclusion criteria by two researchers were compared and disagreements resolved. Included papers were then retrieved and further independently assessed in a similar way. Remaining studies had their data independently extracted by one of five reviewers and checked by another reviewer. RESULTS: from 1,580 titles and abstracts nine studies were included. These were of variable quality; some study's results should be viewed with caution. The studies were too hetrogeneous to pool the data. However, overall the results firmly supported the use of unilateral cochler implants for severe to profoundly deaf adults. Additionally, four UK based economic evaluations found unilateral cochlear implants to be cost-effectivene in adults at UK implants centres. CONCLUSION: the methodologically weak but universally positive body of effectiveness evidence supports the use of unilateral cochlear implants in adults. Previous economic evaluations indicate that such implants are likely to be cost-effective.

Most health technology economic evaluations simulate only the prevalent cohort or the next incident cohort of patients. They therefore do not capture all future patient-related benefits and costs.

BACKGROUND: Annually an estimated 223 children in the UK are born with or acquire permanent profound bilateral deafness (PBHL >or= 95 dB). These children may gain little or no benefit from acoustic hearing aids. However, cochlear implants might enable them to hear. OBJECTIVES OF THE REVIEW: to bring together the diverse research in this area under the rigor of a systematic review to discover the strength of evidence when comparing the effectiveness of unilateral cochlear implants with non-technological support or acoustic hearing aids in children with PBHL. TYPE OF REVIEW: Systematic review. SEARCH STRATEGY: This examined 16 electronic data bases, plus bibliographies and references for published and unpublished studies. EVALUATION METHOD: Abstracts were independently assessed against inclusion criteria by two researchers, results were compared and disagreements resolved. Included papers were then retrieved and further independently assessed in a similar way. Remaining studies had their data independently extracted by one of five reviewers and checked by another reviewer. RESULTS: from 1,580 abstracts and titles 15 studies were included. These were of moderate to poor quality. The large amount of heterogeneity in design and outcomes precluded meta-analysis. However, all studies reported that unilateral cochlear implants improved scores on all outcome measures. Additionally five economic evaluations found unilateral cochlear implants to be cost-effective for profoundly deaf children at UK implant centres. CONCLUSIONS: the robustness of systematic review methods gives weight to the positive findings of 15 papers reporting on this subject that they individually lack; while an RCT to show this would be unethical.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combined resynchronisation and implantable defibrillator therapy for left ventricular dysfunction and explore subgroups in which such devices might be most cost-effective. DESIGN: Markov model-based economic evaluation. SETTING: UK NHS. PARTICIPANTS: a simulated mixed age cohort of NYHA class III and IV patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and prolonged QRS interval. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per quality adjusted life year gained over the patient lifetime. RESULTS: the incremental cost-effectiveness of resynchronisation therapy alone compared with optimal medical therapy was pound16,735 (95% CI: pound14,630 to pound20,333) with a 91% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of pound30,000. Compared with resynchronisation alone, the incremental cost-effectiveness of combined implantable defibrillator was pound40,160 (95% CI: pound26,645 to pound59,391) with only a 26% probability of cost-effectiveness at the pound30,000 threshold. In a direct comparison across three treatments (medical treatment, resynchronisation alone and combined resynchronisation with implantable defibrillator therapy) resynchronisation alone was found to be the most cost-effective option. CONCLUSION: Combined resynchronisation and implantable defibrillator therapy is not cost-effective for left ventricular dysfunction. Instead resynchronisation alone remains the most cost-effective policy option in this population. Combined devices are more likely to be cost-effective in the subgroups of younger patients or those with high risk of sudden cardiac death who would qualify for resynchronisation therapy.

The submission's evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of sunitinib for the treatment of gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) is based on a randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing sunitinib with placebo for people with unresectable and/or metastatic GIST after failure of imatinib and with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) progression status 0-1, and an ongoing, non-comparative cohort study of a similar population but with ECOG progression status 0-4. The searches are appropriate and include all relevant studies and the RCT is of high quality. In the RCT sunitinib arm overall survival was 73 median weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 61 to 83] versus 75 median weeks (95% CI 68 to 84) for the cohort study. However, time to tumour progression in the cohort study was different from that in the RCT sunitinib arm [41 (95% CI 36 to 47) versus 29 (95% CI 22 to 41) median weeks respectively]. Median progression-free survival with sunitinib was 24.6 weeks (95% CI 12.1 to 28.4) versus 6.4 weeks (95% CI 4.4 to 10.0) on placebo (hazard ratio 0.333, 95% CI 0.238 to 0.467, p < 0.001). The manufacturer used a three-state Markov model to model the cost-effectiveness of sunitinib compared with best supportive care for GIST patients; the modelling approach and sources and justification of estimates are reasonable. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 27,365 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) with the first cycle of sunitinib treatment not costed; when we included the cost of the first treatment cycle we estimated a base-case ICER of 32,636 pounds per QALY. Pfizer's sensitivity analysis produced a range of ICERs from 15,536 pounds per QALY to 59,002 pounds per QALY. Weaknesses of the manufacturer's submission include that the evidence is based on only one published RCT; that 84% of the RCT control population crossed over to the intervention group, giving rise to the use of unusual rank preserved structural failure time (RPSFT) analysis to correct for possible bias; and that a number of errors and omissions were made in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, meaning that it is not possible to come to firm conclusions about the cost-effectiveness of sunitinib for GIST in this patient population. In conclusion, during the blinded phase of the RCT, overall survival was significantly longer in the sunitinib arm than in the placebo arm (hazard ratio 0.491, 95% CI 0.290 to 0.831, p

Objectives: to investigate whether it is clinically effective and cost-effective to provide (i) a unilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people (using or not using hearing aids), and (ii) a bilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people with a single cochlear implant (unilateral or unilateral plus hearing aid). Data sources: Main electronic databases [MEDLINE; EMBASE; Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; CENTRAL; NHS EED; DARE; HTA (NHS-CRD); EconLit; National Research Register; and ClinicalTrials. gov] searched in October 2006, updated July 2007. Review methods: a systematic review of the literature was undertaken according to standard methods. A state-transition (Markov) model of the main care pathways deaf people might follow and the main complications and device failures was developed. Results: the clinical effectiveness review included 33 papers, of which only two were RCTs. They used 62 different outcome measures and overall were of moderate to poor quality. All studies in children comparing one cochlear implant with non-technological support or an acoustic hearing aid reported gains on all outcome measures, some demonstrating greater gain from earlier implantation. The strongest evidence for an advantage from bilateral over unilateral implantation was for understanding speech in noisy conditions (mean improvement 13.2%, p < 0.0001); those receiving their second implant earlier made greater gains. Comparison of bilateral with unilateral cochlear implants plus an acoustic hearing aid was compromised by small sample sizes and poor reporting, but benefits were seen with bilateral implants. Cochlear implants improved children's quality of life, and those who were implanted before attending school were more likely to do well academically and attend mainstream education than those implanted later. In adults, there was a greater benefit from cochlear implants than from nontechnological support in terms of speech perception. Increased age at implantation may reduce effectiveness and there is a negative correlation between duration of deafness and effectiveness. Speech perception measures all showed benefits for cochlear implants over acoustic hearing aids [e.g. mean increase in score of 37 points in noisy conditions (p < 0.001) with BKB sentences]; however, prelingually deafened adults benefited less than those postlingually deafened (mean change scores 20% versus 62%). For unilateral versus bilateral implantation, benefits in speech perception were significant in noisy conditions on all measures [e.g. 76% for HINT sentences (p < 0.0001)]. Quality of life measured with generic and disease-specific instruments or by interview mostly showed significant gains or positive trends from using cochlear implants. The Markov model base-case analysis estimated that, for prelingually profoundly deaf children, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for unilateral implantation compared with no implantation was £13,413 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Assuming the utility gain for bilateral implantation is the same for adults and children, the ICERs for simultaneous and sequential bilateral implantation versus unilateral implantation were £40,410 and £54,098 per QALY respectively. For postlingually sensorineurally profoundly deaf adults, the corresponding ICERs were £14,163, £49,559 and £60,301 per QALY respectively. Probabilistic threshold analyses suggest that unilateral implants are highly likely to be cost-effective for adults and children at willingness to pay thresholds of £20,000 or £30,000 per QALY. There are likely to be overall additional benefits from bilateral implantation, enabling children and adults to hold conversations more easily in social situations. Conclusions: Unilateral cochlear implantation is safe and effective for adults and children and likely to be cost-effective in profoundly deaf adults and profoundly and prelingually deaf children. However, decisions on the cost-effectiveness of bilateral cochlear implants should take into account the high degree of uncertainty within the model regarding the probable utility gain. © 2009 Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO. All rights reserved.

To investigate whether it is clinically effective and cost-effective to provide (i) a unilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people (using or not using hearing aids), and (ii) a bilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people with a single cochlear implant (unilateral or unilateral plus hearing aid).

Objective: to review the evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of storing kidneys from deceased donors prior to transplantation, using cold static storage solutions or pulsatile hypothermic machine perfusion. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched in January 2008 and updated in May 2008 for systematic reviews and/or meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), other study designs and ongoing research. Sources included: Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, ISI Web of Knowledge, DARE, NRR, ReFeR, Current Controlled Trials, and (NHS) HTA. Bibliographies of articles were searched for further relevant studies, and the Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) and European Regulatory Agency Medical Device Safety Service websites were searched. Only English language papers were sought. Review methods: the perfusion machines identified were the LifePort Kidney Transporter® (Organ Recovery Systems) and the RM3 Renal Preservation System® (Waters Medical Systems). The cold storage solutions reviewed were: University of Wisconsin, ViaSpan™; Marshall's hypertonic citrate, Soltran™; and Genzyme, Celsior™. Each intervention was compared with the others as data permitted. The population was recipients of kidneys from deceased donors. The main outcomes were measures of graft survival, patient survival, delayed graft function (DGF), primary non-function (PNF), discard rates of non-viable kidneys, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Where data permitted the results of studies were pooled using meta-analysis. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to simulate the main post-transplantation outcomes of kidney graft recipients. Results: Eleven studies were included: three full journal published RCTs, two ongoing RCTs [European Machine Preservation Trial (MPT) and UK Pulsatile Perfusion in Asystolic donor Renal Transplantation (PPART) study], one cohort study, three full journal published retrospective record reviews and two retrospective record reviews published as posters or abstracts only. For LifePort versus ViaSpan, no significant differences were found for DGF, PNF, acute rejection, duration of DGF, creatinine clearance or toxicity, patient survival or graft survival at 6 months, but graft survival was better at 12 months post transplant with machine perfusion (LifePort = 98%, ViaSpan = 94%, p < 0.03). For LifePort versus RM3, all outcomes favoured RM3, although the results may be unreliable. For ViaSpan versus Soltran, there were no significant differences in graft survival for cold ischaemic times up to 36 hours. For ViaSpan versus Celsior, no significant differences were found on any outcome measure. In terms of cost-effectiveness, data from the MPT suggested that machine preservation was cheaper and generated more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), while the PPART study data suggested that cold storage was preferable on both counts. The less reliable deterministic outputs of the cohort study suggested that LifePort would be cheaper and would generate more QALYs than Soltran. Sensitivity analyses found that changes to the differential kidney storage costs between comparators have a very low impact on overall net benefit estimates; where differences in effectiveness exist, dialysis costs are important in determining overall net benefit; DGF levels become important only when differences in graft survival are apparent between patients experiencing immediate graft function (IGF) versus DGF; relative impact of differential changes to graft survival for patients experiencing IGF as opposed to DGF depends on the relative proportion of patients experiencing each of these two outcomes. Conclusions: the conclusions drawn for the comparison of machine perfusion with cold storage depend on which trial data are used in the model. Owing to the lack of good research evidence that either ViaSpan or Soltran is better than the other, the cheaper, Soltran, may be preferable. In the absence of a cost-utility analysis, the results of our meta-analysis of the RCTs comparing ViaSpan with Celsior indicate that these cold storage solutions are equivalent. Further RCTs of comparators of interest to allow for appropriate analysis of subgroups and to determine whether either of the two machines under consideration produces better outcomes may be useful. In addition, research is required to: establish the strength and reliability of the presumed causal association between DGF and graft, and patient survival; investigate the utility impacts of renal replacement therapy; determine what the additional cost, survival and QALY impacts are of decreased or increased non-viable kidneys when discarded pre transplantation; and identify a reliable measure for predicting kidney viability from machine perfusion. © 2009 Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVE: to review the evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of storing kidneys from deceased donors prior to transplantation, using cold static storage solutions or pulsatile hypothermic machine perfusion. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched in January 2008 and updated in May 2008 for systematic reviews and/or meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), other study designs and ongoing research. Sources included: Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, ISI Web of Knowledge, DARE, NRR, ReFeR, Current Controlled Trials, and (NHS) HTA. Bibliographies of articles were searched for further relevant studies, and the Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) and European Regulatory Agency Medical Device Safety Service websites were searched. Only English language papers were sought. REVIEW METHODS: the perfusion machines identified were the LifePort Kidney Transporter (Organ Recovery Systems) and the RM3 Renal Preservation System (Waters Medical Systems). The cold storage solutions reviewed were: University of Wisconsin, ViaSpan; Marshall's hypertonic citrate, Soltran; and Genzyme, Celsior. Each intervention was compared with the others as data permitted. The population was recipients of kidneys from deceased donors. The main outcomes were measures of graft survival, patient survival, delayed graft function (DGF), primary non-function (PNF), discard rates of non-viable kidneys, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Where data permitted the results of studies were pooled using meta-analysis. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to simulate the main post-transplantation outcomes of kidney graft recipients. RESULTS: Eleven studies were included: three full journal published RCTs, two ongoing RCTs [European Machine Preservation Trial (MPT) and UK Pulsatile Perfusion in Asystolic donor Renal Transplantation (PPART) study], one cohort study, three full journal published retrospective record reviews and two retrospective record reviews published as posters or abstracts only. For LifePort versus ViaSpan, no significant differences were found for DGF, PNF, acute rejection, duration of DGF, creatinine clearance or toxicity, patient survival or graft survival at 6 months, but graft survival was better at 12 months post transplant with machine perfusion (LifePort = 98%, ViaSpan = 94%, p < 0.03). For LifePort versus RM3, all outcomes favoured RM3, although the results may be unreliable. For ViaSpan versus Soltran, there were no significant differences in graft survival for cold ischaemic times up to 36 hours. For ViaSpan versus Celsior, no significant differences were found on any outcome measure. In terms of cost-effectiveness, data from the MPT suggested that machine preservation was cheaper and generated more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), while the PPART study data suggested that cold storage was preferable on both counts. The less reliable deterministic outputs of the cohort study suggested that LifePort would be cheaper and would generate more QALYs than Soltran. Sensitivity analyses found that changes to the differential kidney storage costs between comparators have a very low impact on overall net benefit estimates; where differences in effectiveness exist, dialysis costs are important in determining overall net benefit; DGF levels become important only when differences in graft survival are apparent between patients experiencing immediate graft function (IGF) versus DGF; relative impact of differential changes to graft survival for patients experiencing IGF as opposed to DGF depends on the relative proportion of patients experiencing each of these two outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: the conclusions drawn for the comparison of machine perfusion with cold storage depend on which trial data are used in the model. Owing to the lack of good research evidence that either ViaSpan or Soltran is better than the other, the cheaper, Soltran, may be preferable. In the absence of a cost-utility analysis, the results of our meta-analysis of the RCTs comparing ViaSpan with Celsior indicate that these cold storage solutions are equivalent. Further RCTs of comparators of interest to allow for appropriate analysis of subgroups and to determine whether either of the two machines under consideration produces better outcomes may be useful. In addition, research is required to: establish the strength and reliability of the presumed causal association between DGF and graft, and patient survival; investigate the utility impacts of renal replacement therapy; determine what the additional cost, survival and QALY impacts are of decreased or increased non-viable kidneys when discarded pre transplantation; and identify a reliable measure for predicting kidney viability from machine perfusion.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the use of information graphics to display the outputs of health technology assessment (HTA) in the United Kingdom and proposes a more structured approach founded in an analysis of the decision-making requirements of the key stakeholders. METHODS: a scoping review of HTA reports was conducted to investigate current practice in the use of information graphics in HTA literature. A classification framework using dimensions of report section, graphical type, and originating research center was devised and used for a full content analysis of the graphical figures in the fifty most recent reports produced for the UK National Health Service's HTA process. RESULTS: Our survey shows that graphical tools are used extensively in HTA reports although less frequently than tables. Use of information graphics varies widely between different report sections and tends to follow conventional lines with little evidence of variance from established practice. The largest variance was found between the quantities of graphics used by different research centers responsible for authoring the reports. CONCLUSIONS: HTA makes extensive use of graphics; however, there is little evidence of a systematic or standardized approach, or of much innovation. Significant potential exists to explore the application of information graphics in this field, but there are many research challenges. A contextually based, structured approach to the design of effective information graphics in HTA is proposed as a basis both to investigate the application of existing graphical tools in HTA, and to explore the considerable scope for innovation.

The Medicare Safety Net (MSN) was introduced in March 2004 to provide financial relief for those who incur high out-of-pocket costs from medical services. The policy has the potential to improve equity. This study examines: (i) how the health and income profiles of small areas influence MSN expenditure; and (ii) the distribution of expenditure by medical service type. The results indicate that MSN expenditure is positively related to income and that patients who use private obstetricians and assisted reproductive services are the greatest beneficiaries. The MSN has possibly created greater inequities in Australia's health-care financing arrangements. © 2009 the University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

BACKGROUND: High-grade gliomas are aggressive brain tumours that are extremely challenging to treat effectively. The intracranial implantation of carmustine wafers (BCNU-W), which delivers chemotherapy directly to the affected area, may prolong survival in this population. However, no attention has yet been paid to the economic implications of BCNU-W in this setting. OBJECTIVE: to investigate the cost effectiveness of BCNU-W as an adjunct to surgery followed by radiotherapy, compared with surgery plus radiotherapy alone. Newly diagnosed, operable grade III and IV gliomas in a population with a mean age of 55 years were considered. METHODS: a Markov cost-utility model was developed in Microsoft Excel, adopting a UK NHS perspective. Transition probabilities and cost data (year 2004 values) were obtained from published literature or expert opinion. The model incorporated utility values, obtained from members of the public, reflecting the quality of life associated with high-grade glioma. The effects of uncertainty were explored through extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Surgery with the implantation of BCNU-W followed by radiotherapy costs pound sterling 54 500 per additional QALY gained when compared with surgery plus radiotherapy alone. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows a

Using a decision-analytic model, we evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals with cirrhosis. Separate cohorts with cirrhosis due to alcoholic liver disease, hepatitis B and hepatitis C were simulated. Results were also combined to approximate a mixed aetiology population. Comparisons were made between a variety of surveillance algorithms using alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) assay and/or ultrasound at 6- and 12-monthly intervals. Parameter estimates were obtained from comprehensive literature reviews. Uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In the mixed aetiology cohort, 6-monthly AFP+ultrasound was predicted to be the most effective strategy. The model estimates that, compared with no surveillance, this strategy may triple the number of people with operable tumours at diagnosis and almost halve the number of people who die from HCC. The cheapest strategy employed triage with annual AFP (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER): 20,700 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds per QALY the most cost-effective strategy used triage with 6-monthly AFP (ICER: 27,600 pounds per QALY gained). The addition of ultrasound to this strategy increased the ICER to 60,100 pounds per QALY gained. Surveillance appears most cost-effective in individuals with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis, potentially due to younger age at diagnosis of cirrhosis. Our results suggest that, in a UK NHS context, surveillance of individuals with cirrhosis for HCC should be considered effective and cost-effective. The economic efficiency of different surveillance strategies is predicted to vary markedly according to cirrhosis aetiology.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) alone and ICS used in combination with a long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA) in the treatment of chronic asthma in children aged under 12 years. DATA SOURCES: Major electronic bibliographic databases, e.g. MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched up to February/March 2006 (and updated again in October 2006). REVIEW METHODS: a systematic review of clinical and cost-effectiveness studies and economic analyses were carried out. A flexible framework was used to allow different types of economic analyses as appropriate, with either a cost comparison or cost-consequence comparison conducted. RESULTS: of 5175 records identified through systematic literature searching, 34 records describing 25 studies were included (16 were fully published randomised controlled trials, six were systematic reviews, and three were post-2004 conference abstracts). The most frequently reported relevant outcomes in the 16 RCTs were peak expiratory flow rate (13 trials), FEV1 (13 trials), symptoms (13 trials), adverse events or exacerbations (13 trials), use of rescue medication (12 trials), markers of adrenal function (e.g. blood or urine cortisol concentrations) (13 trials), height and/or growth rate (seven trials) and markers of bone metabolism (two trials). In the trials that compared low-dose ICS versus ICS and high-dose ICS versus ICS, no consistent significant differences or patterns in differential treatment effect among the outcomes were evident. Where differences were statistically significant at high doses, such as for lung function and growth, they favoured formoterol fumarate (FF), but this was generally in studies that did not compare the ICS at the accepted clinically equivalent doses. Differences between the drugs in impact on adrenal suppression were only significant in two studies. At doses of 200, 400 and 800 microg/day, beclometasone dipropionate (BDP) appears to be the current cheapest ICS product both with the inclusion and exclusion of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-propelled products. In the trials comparing ICS at a higher dose with ICS and LABA in combination, most outcomes favoured the combined inhaler. Only the combination inhaler, Seretide Evohaler, is slightly cheaper than the weighted mean cost of all types of ICS at increased dose except BDP 400 microg/day (including CFC-propelled products). Both the combination inhalers, Seretide Accuhaler and Symbicort Turbohaler, are more expensive than the weighted mean cost for all types of ICS at a two-fold increased dose. Compared with the lowest cost preparation for each ICS drug, all the combination inhalers are always more expensive than the ICS products at increased dose. CONCLUSIONS: the limited evidence available indicates that there are no consistent significant differences in effectiveness between the three ICS licensed for use in children at either low or high dose. BDP CFC-propelled products are often the cheapest ICS currently available at both low and high dose, and may remain so even when CFC-propelled products are excluded. Exclusion of CFC-propelled products increases the mean annual cost of all budesonide (BUD) and BDP, while the overall cost differences between the comparators diminish. There is very limited evidence available for the efficacy and safety of ICS and LABAs in children. From this limited evidence, there appear to be no significant clinical differences in effects between the use of a combination inhaler versus the same drugs in separate inhalers. There is a lack of evidence comparing ICS at a higher dose with ICS and LABA in combination and comparing the combination products with each other. In the absence of any evidence concerning the effectiveness of ICS at higher dose with ICS and LABA, a cost-consequence analysis gives mixed results. There are potential cost savings with the use of combination inhalers compared to separate inhalers. At present prices, the BUD/FF combination is more expensive than those containing FP/SAL, but it is not known whether there are clinically significant differences between them. A scoping review is required to assess the requirements for additional primary research on the clinical effectiveness of treatment for asthma in children under 5 years old. Such a review could also usefully include all treatment options, pharmacological and non-pharmacological, for asthma. A direct head-to-head trial that compares the two combination therapies of FP/SAL and BUD/FF is warranted, and it is important to assess whether the addition of a LABA to a lower dose of ICS could potentially be as effective as an increased dose of ICS alone, but also be steroid sparing. There is also a need for the long-term adverse events associated with ICS use to be assessed systematically. Future trials of treatment for chronic asthma in children should aim to standardise further the way in which outcome measures are defined. There should be a greater focus on patient-centred outcomes to provide a more meaningful estimation of the impact of treatment on asthma control. Methods of reporting also require standardisation.

OBJECTIVE: to estimate the cost-effectiveness of altering the currently recommended interval and age range for cervical screening of Australian women. METHODS: the cost and effectiveness estimates of alternative screening strategies were generated using an established decision model. This model incorporated a Markov model (of the natural history of cervical cancer and pre-cancerous lesions) and decision trees which: 'mapped' the various pathways to cervical cancer screening; the follow-up of abnormal Pap test results; and the management of confirmed lesions. The model simulated a hypothetical large cohort of Australian women from age 15 to age 85 and calculated the accumulated costs and life-years under each screening strategy. RESULTS: Our model estimated that moving from the current two-yearly screening strategy to annual screening (over the same age range) would cost $379,300 per additional life-year saved. Moving from the current strategy to three-yearly screening would yield $117,100 of savings per life-year lost (costs and effects both discounted at 5% per year), with a relatively modest (

To evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of surveillance of patients with cirrhosis [alcoholic liver disease (ALD)-, hepatitis B (HBV)- and C virus (HCV)-related], using periodic serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) testing and/or liver ultrasound examination, to detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), followed by treatment with liver transplantation or resection, where appropriate. Electronic databases were searched up to March 2006. A systematic review was carried out using standard methodological guidelines. A computerised decision-analytic model was then developed to compare various surveillance strategies. No studies were identified that met the criteria of the systematic review. Based on the assumptions used in the model, the most effective surveillance strategy uses a combination of AFP testing and ultrasound at 6-monthly intervals. Compared with no surveillance, this strategy is estimated to more than triple the number of people with operable HCC tumours at time of diagnosis, and almost halves the number of deaths from HCC. On all effectiveness measures and at both testing frequencies, AFP- and ultrasound-led surveillance strategies are very similar. This may be because test sensitivity was varied according to tumour size, which means that AFP testing is capable of identifying many more small tumours than ultrasound. The best available evidence suggests that AFP tests will detect approximately six times as many small tumours as ultrasound. Increasing the frequency of either test to 6-monthly intervals is more effective than performing combined testing on an annual basis. The undiscounted lifetime cost of the surveillance strategies, including all care and treatment costs, ranges from 40,300 pounds (annual AFP triage) to 42,900 pounds (6-monthly AFP and ultrasound). The equivalent discounted costs are 28,400 pounds and 30,400 pounds. Only a small proportion of these total costs results from the cost of the screening tests. However, screening test costs, and the cost of liver transplants and caring for people post-transplant, accounted for most of the incremental cost differences between alternative surveillance strategies. The results suggest that different surveillance strategies may provide the best value for money in patient groups of different cirrhosis aetiologies. The surveillance of people with HBV-related cirrhosis for HCC provides the best value for money, while surveillance in people with ALD-related cirrhosis provides the poorest value for money. In people with HBV-related cirrhosis, at an assumed maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 30,000 pounds, both the deterministic and probabilistic cost-utility analyses suggest the optimal surveillance strategy would be 6-monthly surveillance with the combination of AFP testing and ultrasound. In contrast, for those with ALD-related cirrhosis, annual screening with AFP as a triage test is the only surveillance strategy that is likely to be considered cost-effective at this WTP. The probabilistic analysis implies that the estimated benefits of a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy will only be worth the cost in those with ALD when society's WTP for a QALY exceeds around 40,000 pounds. For people with HCV-related cirrhosis, the model suggests that the most cost-effective surveillance strategy at a WTP threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY would be surveillance with a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy. In a mixed-aetiology cohort, the most effective surveillance strategy is to screen each patient with AFP assay and ultrasound imaging on a 6-monthly basis. However, when costs are taken into account it is doubtful whether ultrasound should be routinely offered to those with blood AFP of less than 20 ng/ml, unless policy-makers are prepared to pay over 60,000 pounds per QALY for the benefits achieved. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for HCC varies considerably depending on the aetiology of cirrhosis; it is much more likely to be cost-effective in those with HBV-related cirrhosis, and much less likely to be cost-effective in those with ALD-related cirrhosis. Further development of the model would help to enable refinement of an optimal screening strategy. Research into the use of contrast-enhanced ultrasound technology for HCC detection would also be valuable, as would research into the epidemiology and natural history of ALD-related cirrhosis. Studies are also needed to investigate the influence of cirrhosis aetiology on tumour AFP expression.

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) for people with heart failure and evidence of dyssynchrony by comparing cardiac resynchronisation therapy devices, CRT-P and CRT with defibrillation (CRT-D), each with optimal pharmaceutical therapy (OPT), and with each other. Electronic databases were searched up to June 2006. Manufacturer submissions to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) were also searched for additional evidence. Relevant data from selected studies were extracted, narrative reviews were undertaken and meta-analyses of the clinical trial data were conducted. A Markov model was developed. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analyses, threshold analyses, probabilistic sensitivity analyses and value of information analyses were carried out. Five randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, recruiting 3434 participants. Quality was good to moderate. Meta-analyses showed that both CRT-P and CRT-D devices significantly reduced the mortality and level of heart failure hospitalisations and they improved health-related quality of life in people with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III and IV heart failure and evidence of dyssynchrony (QRS interval. > 120 ms) who were also receiving OPT. A single direct comparison indicated that the effects of CRT-P and CRT-D were similar, with the exception of an additional reduction in sudden cardiac death (SCD) associated with CRT-D. On average, implanting a CRT device in 13 people would result in the saving of one additional life over a 3-year period compared with OPT. The NHS device and procedure cost of implanting a new CRT-P system (pulse generator unit and required leads) was estimated to be 5074 British pounds and that of a CRT-D system 17,266 British pounds. The discounted lifetime costs of OPT, CRT-P and CRT-D were estimated as 9375 British pounds, 20,804 British pounds and 32,689 British pounds, respectively. The industry submissions to NICE contained four cost-effectiveness analyses, of which two were more appropriate as reference cases. One used a discrete event simulation model that gave estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of CRT-P vs OPT of 15,645 British pounds per QALY. The other analysis was based on the results of the COMPANION trial and estimated an ICER of 2818 British pounds per QALY gained by CRT-P vs OPT and a cost per QALY gained of 22,384 British pounds for CRT-D vs OPT. Compared with OPT, the Markov model base case analysis estimated that CRT-P conferred an additional 0.70 QALYs for an additional 11,630 British pounds per person, giving an estimated ICER of 16,735 British pounds per QALY gained for a mixed age cohort (range 14,630-20,333 British pounds). CRT-D vs CRT-P conferred an additional 0.29 QALYs for an additional 11,689 British pounds per person, giving an ICER of 40,160 British pounds per QALY for a mixed age cohort (range 26,645-59,391 British pounds). The authors' ICERs are higher than those from the industry-submitted analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on 1000 simulated trials showed that, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 30,000 British pounds per QALY, in CRT-P versus OPT, CRT-P was likely to be cost-effective in 91.3% of simulations and that CRT-P was negatively dominated in 0.4% of simulations. It also showed that in CRT-P versus CRT-D, CRT-D was likely to be cost-effective in 26.3% of simulations and that CRT-P dominated CRT-D in 7.8% of simulations. The relative risk for SCD when CRT-D is compared with OPT is 0.44 in the base case. This treatment becomes cost-ineffective at a WTP threshold of 30,000 British pounds when this value is greater than 0.65. When both CRT-P and CRT-D were considered as competing technologies with each other and OPT (three-way probabilistic analysis), and at the same WTP, there was a 68% probability that CRT-P provided the highest expected net benefit. The WTP threshold would need to be above 40,000 British pounds before CRT-D provided the highest expected net benefit. The study found that CRT-P and CRT-D devices reduce mortality and hospitalisations due to heart failure, improve quality of life and reduce SCD in people with heart failure NYHA classes III and IV, and evidence of dyssynchrony. When measured using a lifetime time horizon and compared with optimal medical therapy, the devices are estimated to be cost-effective at a WTP threshold of 30,000 British pounds per QALY; CRT-P is cost-effective at a WTP threshold of 20,000 British pounds per QALY. When the cost and effectiveness of all three treatment strategies are compared, the estimated net benefit from CRT-D is less than with the other two strategies, until the WTP threshold exceeds 40,160 British pounds/QALY. Further research is needed into the identification of those patients unlikely to benefit from this therapy, the appropriate use of CRT-D devices, the differences in mortality and heart failure hospitalisation for NYHA classes I and II, as well as the long-term implications of using this therapy.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) for people with heart failure and evidence of dyssynchrony by comparing cardiac resynchronisation therapy devices, CRT-P and CRT with defibrillation (CRT-D), each with optimal pharmaceutical therapy (OPT), and with each other. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched up to June 2006. Manufacturer submissions to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) were also searched for additional evidence. REVIEW METHODS: Relevant data from selected studies were extracted, narrative reviews were undertaken and meta-analyses of the clinical trial data were conducted. A Markov model was developed. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analyses, threshold analyses, probabilistic sensitivity analyses and value of information analyses were carried out. RESULTS: Five randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, recruiting 3434 participants. Quality was good to moderate. Meta-analyses showed that both CRT-P and CRT-D devices significantly reduced the mortality and level of heart failure hospitalisations and they improved health-related quality of life in people with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III and IV heart failure and evidence of dyssynchrony (QRS interval >120 ms) who were also receiving OPT. A single direct comparison indicated that the effects of CRT-P and CRT-D were similar, with the exception of an additional reduction in sudden cardiac death (SCD) associated with CRT-D. On average, implanting a CRT device in 13 people would result in the saving of one additional life over a 3-year period compared with OPT. The NHS device and procedure cost of implanting a new CRT-P system (pulse generator unit and required leads) was estimated to be 5074 British pounds and that of a CRT-D system 17,266 British pounds. The discounted lifetime costs of OPT, CRT-P and CRT-D were estimated as 9375 British pounds, 20,804 British pounds and 32,689 British pounds, respectively. The industry submissions to NICE contained four cost-effectiveness analyses, of which two were more appropriate as reference cases. One used a discrete event simulation model that gave estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of CRT-P vs OPT of 15,645 British pounds per QALY. The other analysis was based on the results of the COMPANION trial and estimated an ICER of 2818 British pounds per QALY gained by CRT-P vs OPT and a cost per QALY gained of 22,384 British pounds for CRT-D vs OPT. Compared with OPT, the Markov model base case analysis estimated that CRT-P conferred an additional 0.70 QALYs for an additional 11,630 British pounds per person, giving an estimated ICER of 16,735 British pounds per QALY gained for a mixed age cohort (range 14,630-20,333 British pounds). CRT-D vs CRT-P conferred an additional 0.29 QALYs for an additional 11,689 British pounds per person, giving an ICER of 40,160 British pounds per QALY for a mixed age cohort (range 26,645-59,391 British pounds). The authors' ICERs are higher than those from the industry-submitted analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on 1000 simulated trials showed that, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 30,000 British pounds per QALY, in CRT-P versus OPT, CRT-P was likely to be cost-effective in 91.3% of simulations and that CRT-P was negatively dominated in 0.4% of simulations. It also showed that in CRT-P versus CRT-D, CRT-D was likely to be cost-effective in 26.3% of simulations and that CRT-P dominated CRT-D in 7.8% of simulations. The relative risk for SCD when CRT-D is compared with OPT is 0.44 in the base case. This treatment becomes cost-ineffective at a WTP threshold of 30,000 British pounds when this value is greater than 0.65. When both CRT-P and CRT-D were considered as competing technologies with each other and OPT (three-way probabilistic analysis), and at the same WTP, there was a 68% probability that CRT-P provided the highest expected net benefit. The WTP threshold would need to be above 40,000 British pounds before CRT-D provided the highest expected net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: the study found that CRT-P and CRT-D devices reduce mortality and hospitalisations due to heart failure, improve quality of life and reduce SCD in people with heart failure NYHA classes III and IV, and evidence of dyssynchrony. When measured using a lifetime time horizon and compared with optimal medical therapy, the devices are estimated to be cost-effective at a WTP threshold of 30,000 British pounds per QALY; CRT-P is cost-effective at a WTP threshold of 20,000 British pounds per QALY. When the cost and effectiveness of all three treatment strategies are compared, the estimated net benefit from CRT-D is less than with the other two strategies, until the WTP threshold exceeds 40,160 British pounds/QALY. Further research is needed into the identification of those patients unlikely to benefit from this therapy, the appropriate use of CRT-D devices, the differences in mortality and heart failure hospitalisation for NYHA classes I and II, as well as the long-term implications of using this therapy.

BACKGROUND: Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) is a common side effect of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and is associated with increased risk of fracture and cardiovascular events (CV). Current standard treatment includes dietary control, phosphate binders and vitamin D. However, many patients do not have their parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcium and phosphate levels controlled by this regimen. Cinacalcet is the first of a new class of calcimimetic drugs which suppress PTH production. Although there is convincing evidence of the impact of cinacalcet on serum biomarkers, the long-term clinical implications of treatment are less clear. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-utility of cinacalcet as an addition to standard treatment of SHPT compared with standard treatment alone. METHODS: a Markov model was developed to estimate the incremental cost-utility of cinacalcet. Uncertainty was explored through extensive sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Compared with standard treatment, cinacalcet incurs average additional lifetime costs of pound21,167 per person and confers an additional 0.34 quality adjusted life years, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of pound61,890 (approximately euro89,000) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis showed that cinacalcet was only likely to be considered cost-effective if the relative risk of mortality for people with very high levels of PTH was 2.2 compared with people whose PTH reached target levels, or if drug costs were considerably reduced. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed cinacalcet was very unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay in the National Health Service (NHS). CONCLUSION: Unless the cost of cinacalcet is considerably reduced, it is unlikely to be considered a cost-effective treatment for people with SHPT.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant carmustine wafers (BCNU-W) and also of adjuvant and concomitant temozolomide (TMZ), compared with surgery with radiotherapy. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched up to August 2005. REVIEW METHODS: Included trials were critically appraised for key elements of internal and external validity. Relevant data were extracted and a narrative synthesis of the evidence produced. Where possible, data on absolute survival at a fixed time point were meta-analysed using a random effects model. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to assess the cost-utility of the two interventions. The model compared BCNU-W or TMZ separately with current standard treatment with surgery and radiotherapy. The simulated cohort had a mean age of 55 years and was modelled over 5 years. RESULTS: Two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (n = 32, n = 240) and two observational studies of BCNU-W compared with placebo wafers as adjuvant therapy to surgery and radiotherapy for newly diagnosed high-grade glioma were identified. All the studies were in adults and provided data on 193 patients who had received BCNU-W. The RCT findings excluded under 65-year-olds and those with a Karnofsky Performance Status of less than 60. The largest multi-centre RCT suggested a possible survival advantage with BCNU-W among a cohort of patients with grade III and IV tumours, adding a median of 2.3 months [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.5 to 5.1]. However, analysis using per-protocol, unstratified methods shows this difference to be not statistically significant (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.03, p = 0.08). Long-term follow-up suggests a significant survival advantage using unstratified analysis. No difference in progression-free survival (PFS) was demonstrated. Subgroup analysis of those with grade IV tumours also showed no significant survival advantage with BCNU-W [hazard ratio (HR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.11, p = 0.20, unstratified analysis]. It is estimated that the cost of surgery and radiotherapy, with follow-up, treatment of adverse effects and end of life care is around 17,000 pounds per patient. Treatment with BCNU-W adds an additional 6600 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of BCNU-W costs an additional 6.6 million pounds and confers an additional 122 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). On average, that is 6600 pounds per patient for 0.122 QALYs (6.3 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is 54,500 pounds/QALY. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, BCNU-W was not cost-effective in 89% of the simulations assuming a willingness to pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY. In 15% of simulations, BCNU-W was dominated (i.e. did more harm than good, conferring fewer QALYs at greater cost). The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) suggests that it is very unlikely to be the most cost-effective option at normal levels of willingness to pay (11% probability at 30,000 pounds/QALY), only becoming likely to be the most cost-effective option at much higher levels of willingness to pay (50% probability at 55,000 pounds/QALY). Two RCTs (n = 130, n = 573) and two observational studies were included, giving evidence for 429 adult patients receiving TMZ. Currently, TMZ is licensed for use in those with newly diagnosed grade IV gliomas only. The RCTs excluded those with lower performance status and, in the larger RCT, those older than 70 years. TMZ provides a small but statistically significant median survival benefit of 2.5 months (95% CI 2.0 to 3.8), giving an HR of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.75, p < 0.001). At 2 years, 26.5% of patients treated with TMZ were alive compared with 10.4% of those in the control arm. Median PFS is also enhanced with TMZ, giving a median 1.9 months' advantage (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7, p < 0.001). No analysis of the subgroup of patients with confirmed grade IV tumours was undertaken. Subgroup analysis of patients by O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) activity showed a significant treatment advantage for those with reduced MGMT activity but not for those with normal activity, although this analysis was based on a selected sample of patients and the test used has proved difficult to replicate. A median gain of 6.4 (95% CI 4.4 to 9.5) more life-months is seen with TMZ among those with reduced MGMT, giving an HR of 0.51 (p < 0.007). PFS is increased by a median of 4.4 months (95% CI 1.2 to 6.3), giving an HR of 0.48 (p = 0.001). The model shows a cost per patient for being treated with surgery, radiotherapy and including adverse effects of treatment and end of life care of around 17,000 pounds per patient. TMZ in the adjuvant and concomitant phase adds an additional cost of around 7800 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of TMZ costs an additional 7.8 million pounds and confers an additional 217 QALYs. For the average patient this is 7800 pounds for an additional 0.217 QALYs (11 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case ICER is 36,000 pounds/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses shows that TMZ was not cost-effective in 77% of the simulations. The CEAC suggests that there is a 23% chance that TMZ is the most cost-effective option at a willingness to pay level of 30,000 pounds/QALY, rising to be more cost-effective than no TMZ at slightly higher levels (50% probability at 35,000 pounds/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: BCNU-W has not been proven to confer a significant advantage in survival for patients with grade III tumours when treated with the drug, compared with placebo. There does not appear to be a survival advantage for patients with grade IV tumours. No increase in PFS has been shown. Limited evidence suggests a small but significant advantage in both overall survival and PFS with TMZ among a mixed population with grade IV and grade III (7-8%) tumours. However, it remains unclear whether this is true in grade IV tumours alone. On the basis of best available evidence, the authors consider that neither BCNU-W nor TMZ is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS decision-makers. However, data for the model were drawn from limited evidence of variable quality. Tumour type is clearly important in assessing patient prognosis with different treatments. Grade IV tumours are commonest and appear to have least chance of response. There were too few grade III tumours included to carry out a formal assessment, but they appear to respond better and drive results for both drugs. Future use of genetic and biomarkers may help identify subtypes which will respond, but current licensing indications do not specify these. Further research is suggested into the effectiveness of these drugs, and also into areas such as genetic markers, chemotherapy regimens, patient and carer quality of life, and patient views on survival advantages vs treatment disadvantages.

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant carmustine wafers (BCNU-W) and also of adjuvant and concomitant temozolomide (TMZ), compared with surgery with radiotherapy. Electronic databases were searched up to August 2005. Included trials were critically appraised for key elements of internal and external validity. Relevant data were extracted and a narrative synthesis of the evidence produced. Where possible, data on absolute survival at a fixed time point were meta-analysed using a random effects model. A Markov (state transition) model was developed to assess the cost-utility of the two interventions. The model compared BCNU-W or TMZ separately with current standard treatment with surgery and radiotherapy. The simulated cohort had a mean age of 55 years and was modelled over 5 years. Two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (n = 32, n = 240) and two observational studies of BCNU-W compared with placebo wafers as adjuvant therapy to surgery and radiotherapy for newly diagnosed high-grade glioma were identified. All the studies were in adults and provided data on 193 patients who had received BCNU-W. The RCT findings excluded under 65-year-olds and those with a Karnofsky Performance Status of less than 60. The largest multi-centre RCT suggested a possible survival advantage with BCNU-W among a cohort of patients with grade III and IV tumours, adding a median of 2.3 months [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.5 to 5.1]. However, analysis using per-protocol, unstratified methods shows this difference to be not statistically significant (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.03, p = 0.08). Long-term follow-up suggests a significant survival advantage using unstratified analysis. No difference in progression-free survival (PFS) was demonstrated. Subgroup analysis of those with grade IV tumours also showed no significant survival advantage with BCNU-W [hazard ratio (HR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.11, p = 0.20, unstratified analysis]. It is estimated that the cost of surgery and radiotherapy, with follow-up, treatment of adverse effects and end of life care is around 17,000 pounds per patient. Treatment with BCNU-W adds an additional 6600 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of BCNU-W costs an additional 6.6 million pounds and confers an additional 122 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). On average, that is 6600 pounds per patient for 0.122 QALYs (6.3 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is 54,500 pounds/QALY. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, BCNU-W was not cost-effective in 89% of the simulations assuming a willingness to pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY. In 15% of simulations, BCNU-W was dominated (i.e. did more harm than good, conferring fewer QALYs at greater cost). The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) suggests that it is very unlikely to be the most cost-effective option at normal levels of willingness to pay (11% probability at 30,000 pounds/QALY), only becoming likely to be the most cost-effective option at much higher levels of willingness to pay (50% probability at 55,000 pounds/QALY). Two RCTs (n = 130, n = 573) and two observational studies were included, giving evidence for 429 adult patients receiving TMZ. Currently, TMZ is licensed for use in those with newly diagnosed grade IV gliomas only. The RCTs excluded those with lower performance status and, in the larger RCT, those older than 70 years. TMZ provides a small but statistically significant median survival benefit of 2.5 months (95% CI 2.0 to 3.8), giving an HR of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.75, p. <. 0.001). At 2 years, 26.5% of patients treated with TMZ were alive compared with 10.4% of those in the control arm. Median PFS is also enhanced with TMZ, giving a median 1.9 months' advantage (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7, p. <. 0.001). No analysis of the subgroup of patients with confirmed grade IV tumours was undertaken. Subgroup analysis of patients by O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) activity showed a significant treatment advantage for those with reduced MGMT activity but not for those with normal activity, although this analysis was based on a selected sample of patients and the test used has proved difficult to replicate. A median gain of 6.4 (95% CI 4.4 to 9.5) more life-months is seen with TMZ among those with reduced MGMT, giving an HR of 0.51 (p. <. 0.007). PFS is increased by a median of 4.4 months (95% CI 1.2 to 6.3), giving an HR of 0.48 (p = 0.001). The model shows a cost per patient for being treated with surgery, radiotherapy and including adverse effects of treatment and end of life care of around 17,000 pounds per patient. TMZ in the adjuvant and concomitant phase adds an additional cost of around 7800 pounds. Across the modelled cohort of 1000 patients, use of TMZ costs an additional 7.8 million pounds and confers an additional 217 QALYs. For the average patient this is 7800 pounds for an additional 0.217 QALYs (11 quality-adjusted life-weeks). The base-case ICER is 36,000 pounds/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses shows that TMZ was not cost-effective in 77% of the simulations. The CEAC suggests that there is a 23% chance that TMZ is the most cost-effective option at a willingness to pay level of 30,000 pounds/QALY, rising to be more cost-effective than no TMZ at slightly higher levels (50% probability at 35,000 pounds/QALY). BCNU-W has not been proven to confer a significant advantage in survival for patients with grade III tumours when treated with the drug, compared with placebo. There does not appear to be a survival advantage for patients with grade IV tumours. No increase in PFS has been shown. Limited evidence suggests a small but significant advantage in both overall survival and PFS with TMZ among a mixed population with grade IV and grade III (7-8%) tumours. However, it remains unclear whether this is true in grade IV tumours alone. On the basis of best available evidence, the authors consider that neither BCNU-W nor TMZ is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS decision-makers. However, data for the model were drawn from limited evidence of variable quality. Tumour type is clearly important in assessing patient prognosis with different treatments. Grade IV tumours are commonest and appear to have least chance of response. There were too few grade III tumours included to carry out a formal assessment, but they appear to respond better and drive results for both drugs. Future use of genetic and biomarkers may help identify subtypes which will respond, but current licensing indications do not specify these. Further research is suggested into the effectiveness of these drugs, and also into areas such as genetic markers, chemotherapy regimens, patient and carer quality of life, and patient views on survival advantages vs treatment disadvantages.

Objectives: to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006. Review methods: Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p < 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional £21, 167 and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £61,890/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in ah ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from £39,000 to £92,000/QALY. Conclusions: Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

Objectives: to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006. Review methods: Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p. <. 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional £21, 167 and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £61,890/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in ah ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from £39,000 to £92,000/QALY. Conclusions: Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

The aim of this study was to assess the expressed preferences of general practitioners (GPs) for alternative organisational models to for-profit GP corporatisation. A review of the findings of six feasibility studies that examined alternative organisational models for general practice in Australia was undertaken. Five feasibility studies were conducted within nine Divisions of General Practice, and a feasibility study was conducted by a state-based organisation among all 15 of its member Divisions. Overall, the six projects demonstrated a strong resistance among most GPs to any alternative model that involved giving up autonomy over practice matters. Consequently, the most favoured alternative organisational model was the "service company"-the establishment of a third party to provide a range of practice support services. In general, there was implicit acceptance that the service company could recover the cost of support service provision by charging GPs on a fee-for-service basis, and also that the Division itself would be the most acceptable organisation to take on this role. However, in four Divisional areas GPs revealed very low motivation towards either working together or with the local Division as a service company. Although these feasibility studies were carried out using different methods, and in a small sample of mostly urban Divisions, they suggest that many GPs would support their Divisions-or some other Division-related third party-to become more active providers of a range of practice support services.

PURPOSE: to explore the cost-effectiveness of school-based multi-disease genetic carrier screening. METHOD: Decision analysis of the cost-effectiveness of a school-based Tay-Sachs disease and cystic fibrosis genetic carrier screening program, relative to no screening. Data relating to ethnicity profile, test-accepting behavior, and screening program cost were sourced from an existing program in Sydney, Australia. RESULTS: Compared to no screening, the incremental cost-effectiveness of the screening program is a dollar 5,834 per additional carrier detected. This cost-effectiveness ratio is most sensitive to changes in genetic test accuracy, and the cost of laboratory assays. The results imply a cost per affected birth avoided of approximately a dollar 530,000 (approximately US dollar 371,000). CONCLUSIONS: This preconceptional genetic carrier screening program offers comparable cost-effectiveness to prenatal screening programs for cystic fibrosis.

OBJECTIVE: to compare the effectiveness of four types of out-of-hours emergency dental service, including both 'walk-in' and telephone-access services. BASIC DESIGN: Questionnaire survey of patients attending weekend emergency dental services, with measurement of self-reported oral health status and dental pain (at attendance and follow-up) and retrospective judgements of change in oral health status. SETTING: Two health authorities in South Wales, UK. SUBJECTS: a total of 783 patients who completed questionnaires at attendance, and 423 who completed follow-up questionnaires. RESULTS: for patients who saw a dentist there were no consistent differences in the effectiveness of the four services, whether measured as pain relief, oral health gain or using patients' retrospective transition judgements about feeling better after their episode of emergency dental care. The proportion of patients reporting no improvement (transition judgements), either an hour after or the day after seeing the dentist, was surprisingly high (30-40% and 23-38% respectively). Although the 'rotas for all' - a telephone-access GDP-provided service for both registered and unregistered patients - achieved both the highest reductions in pain scores and the greatest improvements in dental health status between attendance and follow-up, this effect may reflect health gains due to care received after the episode of emergency dental care. CONCLUSIONS: Neither the setting where emergency dental patients are seen, nor the type of dentist who sees them, appear to have any significant effect on patient-reported health outcomes. Although further exploration of the factors that predict poor pain relief or low oral health gain is required, future research on these services should focus on the process of care and accessibility.

OBJECTIVE: to compare patients' satisfaction with four types of out-of-hours emergency dental service, including both 'walk-in' and telephone-access services. BASIC DESIGN: Postal questionnaire survey of patients who had attended weekend emergency dental services. Patient satisfaction measured using an adapted version of a questionnaire developed for assessing out-of-hours medical services. SETTING: Two health authorities in South Wales, UK. SUBJECTS: the 411 patients who saw a dentist and completed the patient satisfaction questionnaire. RESULTS: the quality of the dentist-patient encounter was similar across services, with most patients being satisfied with the dentist's attitude and manner, the explanations and advice given, and having to see an unfamiliar dentist. Satisfaction was lower, and differed more across services in relation to service accessibility and delays in getting to see a dentist out-of-hours. The walk-in services were perceived as the least accessible: around 40% said they had problems contacting a dentist when the surgery was closed (compared with 16% and 29% in the other two, telephone-access services). Only 12-14% of telephone-access patients said they would be 'happy with advice plus a reliable appointment when surgeries re-opened', whereas almost half of walk-in patients thought this. CONCLUSIONS: Despite overall satisfaction with the dentist-patient encounter, there was relative dissatisfaction with the accessibility of all services, especially the walk-in services. Out-of-hours dental services should be better designed to reflect patients' needs: the need for telephone advice as well as face-to-face consultations, and greater awareness that theoretically available services may be difficult to access unless public expectations and awareness are raised.

OBJECTIVE: to describe the expectations of walk-in patients seeking emergency dental care out-of-hours. BASIC DESIGN: Consecutive patients attending two emergency dental clinics at weekends were interviewed prior to seeing the dentist. The audio-recorded interview transcripts were analysed using the "framework" method of applied qualitative data analysis. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: Forty-four walk-in emergency dental patients at a community-based dental clinic and a dental hospital emergency clinic at the weekend. RESULTS: in addition to symptom relief, the main desired outcome for emergency dental patients may be informational and psychological--especially reassurance that the problem is not serious, and reduced uncertainty about the cause of the pain. In general, patients' stated expectations for specific treatments (such as antibiotics, or tooth extraction) were not absolute: rather, they implied these expectations were conditional upon the dentist deciding they were necessary. CONCLUSIONS: Emergency dental services, some of which are still dominantly treatment-focused, should reflect that many emergency dental attenders want advice and reassurance as much as relief from symptoms. This reinforces the importance of effective and sympathetic dentist-patient communication within emergency or out-of-hours consultations. It also implies that dentists' skills in listening, explaining and reassuring should be captured in any patient satisfaction or outcome measure designed for this patient group.

OBJECTIVE: to understand from the patient's perspective the types of dental problem which present at weekends, how they affect people, and the care-seeking behaviour of emergency dental patients. BASIC DESIGN: Consecutive patients attending two emergency dental clinics at weekends were interviewed prior to seeing the dentist. The audio-recorded interview transcripts were analysed using the "framework" method of applied qualitative data analysis. SETTING: a community-based and a dental hospital emergency dental clinic. SUBJECTS: 44 emergency dental patients. RESULTS: Pain was the main presenting symptom, a key domain of quality of life and the underlying cause of most other quality of life effects. However, for patients deciding what symptoms mean--crucially whether they mean they need to see a dentist urgently--a wide range of other contextual factors come into play. These go beyond the individual patient's recent and current perception of symptom intensity. They encompass past experience of similar symptoms, past care-seeking experiences, anticipated effects on quality of life, anticipated service availability, joint decision-making and lay information from family and friends, professional opinions from non-dentists, expectations concerning what work dentists should do, and what symptoms distinguish "simple toothache" from more serious problems. CONCLUSIONS: the effects of, and meanings which people attach to, acute dental symptoms are complex. Combined with poor awareness of the existence of emergency dental services it is not surprising that patients' pathways to care are correspondingly complicated. The planning of emergency dental services should be based on a broader, patient-derived understanding of the need for them.