OBJECTIVE: the impact of taking oral glucose-lowering medicines intermittently, rather than as recommended, is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using community-acquired U.K. clinical data (Clinical Practice Research Database [CPRD] and GoDARTS database) to examine the prevalence of nonadherence to treatment for type 2 diabetes and investigate its potential impact on HbA1c reduction stratified by type of glucose-lowering medication. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were extracted for patients treated between 2004 and 2014 who were newly prescribed metformin, sulfonylurea, thiazolidinedione, or dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors and who continued to obtain prescriptions over 1 year. Cohorts were defined by prescribed medication type, and good adherence was defined as a medication possession ratio ≥0.8. Linear regression was used to determine potential associations between adherence and 1-year baseline-adjusted HbA1c reduction. RESULTS: in CPRD and GoDARTS, 13% and 15% of patients, respectively, were nonadherent. Proportions of nonadherent patients varied by the oral glucose-lowering treatment prescribed (range 8.6% [thiazolidinedione] to 18.8% [metformin]). Nonadherent, compared with adherent, patients had a smaller HbA1c reduction (0.4% [4.4 mmol/mol] and 0.46% [5.0 mmol/mol] for CPRD and GoDARTs, respectively). Difference in HbA1c response for adherent compared with nonadherent patients varied by drug (range 0.38% [4.1 mmol/mol] to 0.75% [8.2 mmol/mol] lower in adherent group). Decreasing levels of adherence were consistently associated with a smaller reduction in HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced medication adherence for commonly used glucose-lowering therapies among patients persisting with treatment is associated with smaller HbA1c reductions compared with those taking treatment as recommended. Differences observed in HbA1c responses to glucose-lowering treatments may be explained in part by their intermittent use.

We discuss inference for longitudinal clinical trials subject to possibly informative dropout. A selection of available methods is reviewed for the simple case of trials with two timepoints. Using data from two such clinical trials, each with two treatments, we demonstrate that different analysis methods can at times lead to quite different conclusions from the same data. We investigate properties of complete-case estimators for the type of trials considered, with emphasis on interpretation and meaning of parameters. We contrast longitudinal and crossover designs and argue that for crossover studies there are often good reasons to prefer a complete case analysis. More generally, we suggest that there is merit in an approach in which no untestable assumptions are made. Such an approach would combine a dropout analysis, an analysis of complete-case data only, and a careful statement of justified conclusions.

The UK prevalence of parent-reported autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) were estimated from the Millennium Cohort Study. Case definition was if a doctor or health care professional had ever told parents that their child had ASD and/or ADHD. Data were collected in 2008/2009 for 14,043 children. 1.7 % of children were reported as having ASD (95 % CI 1.4-2.0) at mean age 7.2 years (SD = 0.2; range = 6.3-8.2). 1.4 % reportedly had ADHD (95 % CI 1.2-1.7), and 0.3 % had both ASD and ADHD (95 % CI 0.2-0.5). After adjusting for socio-economic disadvantage, only male sex (p 

Increases in the sensitivity of DNA profiling technology now allow profiles to be obtained from smaller and more degraded DNA samples than was previously possible. The resulting profiles can be highly informative, but the subjective elements in the interpretation make it problematic to achieve the valid and efficient evaluation of evidential strength required in criminal cases. The problems arise from stochastic phenomena such as "dropout" (absence of an allele in the profile that is present in the underlying DNA) and experimental artefacts such as "stutter" that can generate peaks of ambiguous allelic status. Currently in the UK, evidential strength evaluation uses an approach in which the complex signals in the DNA profiles are interpreted in a semi-manual fashion by trained experts aided by a set of guidelines, but also relying substantially on professional judgment. We introduce a statistical model to calculate likelihood ratios for evaluating DNA evidence arising from multiple known and unknown contributors that allows for such stochastic phenomena by incorporating peak heights. Efficient use of peak heights allows for more crime scene profiles to be reported to courts than is currently possible. The model parameters are estimated from experimental data incorporating multiple sources of variability in the profiling system. We report and analyse experimental results from the SGMPlus system, run at 28 amplification cycles with no enhancements, currently used in the UK. Our methods are readily adapted to other DNA profiling systems provided that the experimental data for the parameter estimation is available. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

OBJECTIVE: the impact of taking oral glucose-lowering medicines intermittently, rather than as recommended, is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using community-acquired U.K. clinical data (Clinical Practice Research Database [CPRD] and GoDARTS database) to examine the prevalence of nonadherence to treatment for type 2 diabetes and investigate its potential impact on HbA1c reduction stratified by type of glucose-lowering medication. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were extracted for patients treated between 2004 and 2014 who were newly prescribed metformin, sulfonylurea, thiazolidinedione, or dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors and who continued to obtain prescriptions over 1 year. Cohorts were defined by prescribed medication type, and good adherence was defined as a medication possession ratio ≥0.8. Linear regression was used to determine potential associations between adherence and 1-year baseline-adjusted HbA1c reduction. RESULTS: in CPRD and GoDARTS, 13% and 15% of patients, respectively, were nonadherent. Proportions of nonadherent patients varied by the oral glucose-lowering treatment prescribed (range 8.6% [thiazolidinedione] to 18.8% [metformin]). Nonadherent, compared with adherent, patients had a smaller HbA1c reduction (0.4% [4.4 mmol/mol] and 0.46% [5.0 mmol/mol] for CPRD and GoDARTs, respectively). Difference in HbA1c response for adherent compared with nonadherent patients varied by drug (range 0.38% [4.1 mmol/mol] to 0.75% [8.2 mmol/mol] lower in adherent group). Decreasing levels of adherence were consistently associated with a smaller reduction in HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced medication adherence for commonly used glucose-lowering therapies among patients persisting with treatment is associated with smaller HbA1c reductions compared with those taking treatment as recommended. Differences observed in HbA1c responses to glucose-lowering treatments may be explained in part by their intermittent use.

We discuss inference for longitudinal clinical trials subject to possibly informative dropout. A selection of available methods is reviewed for the simple case of trials with two timepoints. Using data from two such clinical trials, each with two treatments, we demonstrate that different analysis methods can at times lead to quite different conclusions from the same data. We investigate properties of complete-case estimators for the type of trials considered, with emphasis on interpretation and meaning of parameters. We contrast longitudinal and crossover designs and argue that for crossover studies there are often good reasons to prefer a complete case analysis. More generally, we suggest that there is merit in an approach in which no untestable assumptions are made. Such an approach would combine a dropout analysis, an analysis of complete-case data only, and a careful statement of justified conclusions.

Objective: to determine the effectiveness of mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) and mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) on psychological and physical outcomes for people with vascular disease. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Data sources: AMED, CINAHL, EMBASE, British Nursing Index, Medline, Web of Science, PsycINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Central, Social Sciences Citation Index, Social Policy and Practice, and HMIC from inception to January 2013. Review methods: Articles were screened for inclusion independently by two reviewers. Data extraction and quality appraisal were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second with discrepancies resolved by discussion with a third if necessary. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed. Results: Nine articles (from eight original randomised controlled trials) met eligibility criteria and were included in the final review. In total, 578 participants were enrolled across the trials, with participants presenting with prehypertension/hypertension (n. = 3 trials), type 1 or 2 diabetes (n. = 2), heart disease (n. = 2) and stroke (n. = 1). Meta-analyses, using standardised mean differences, showed evidence of reductions in stress (- 0.36; 95% CI - 0.67 to - 0.09; p. = 0.01), depression (- 0.35; 95% CI - 0.53 to - 0.16; p. = 0.003) and anxiety (- 0.50; 95% CI - 0.70 to - 0.29; p. <. 0.001). Effects on physical outcomes (blood pressure, albuminuria, stress hormones) were mixed. Conclusion: Whilst populations with vascular disease appear to derive a range of psychological benefits from MBSR/MBCT intervention, the effects on physical parameters of disease are not yet established. More robust studies, with longer term follow-up, are required to ascertain full effectiveness of such intervention. © 2014.

© 2014 the Authors. Background: the Strengths and Difficulties Added Value Score (SDQ AVS) uses a large epidemiological study to predict follow-up parental SDQ scores for the evaluation of routine outcomes. Method: We tested the prediction of the SDQ AVS derived from a national population survey separately on scores for the waiting list control and intervention groups in a randomised controlled trial. If the SDQ AVS is to be clinically useful, it needs to function as expected across different populations. Results: in the control arm, the SDQ AVS predicted an effect size of 0.15 (95% CI -0.01-0.30) compared to an expected effect size of 0, as the children in this arm received no treatment. In the experimental arm, the SDQ AVS predicted an effect size of 0.62 (95% CI 0.42-0.83) compared to the study effect size of 0.53. Change scores overestimated the effect size in both arms (control 0.50 95% CI 0.34-0.66, intervention 0.85 95% CI 0.66-1.04). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the SDQ AVS adjusts for spontaneous improvement, regression to the mean and attenuation.

The UK prevalence of parent-reported autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) were estimated from the Millennium Cohort Study. Case definition was if a doctor or health care professional had ever told parents that their child had ASD and/or ADHD. Data were collected in 2008/2009 for 14,043 children. 1.7 % of children were reported as having ASD (95 % CI 1.4-2.0) at mean age 7.2 years (SD = 0.2; range = 6.3-8.2). 1.4 % reportedly had ADHD (95 % CI 1.2-1.7), and 0.3 % had both ASD and ADHD (95 % CI 0.2-0.5). After adjusting for socio-economic disadvantage, only male sex (p 

Increases in the sensitivity of DNA profiling technology now allow profiles to be obtained from smaller and more degraded DNA samples than was previously possible. The resulting profiles can be highly informative, but the subjective elements in the interpretation make it problematic to achieve the valid and efficient evaluation of evidential strength required in criminal cases. The problems arise from stochastic phenomena such as "dropout" (absence of an allele in the profile that is present in the underlying DNA) and experimental artefacts such as "stutter" that can generate peaks of ambiguous allelic status. Currently in the UK, evidential strength evaluation uses an approach in which the complex signals in the DNA profiles are interpreted in a semi-manual fashion by trained experts aided by a set of guidelines, but also relying substantially on professional judgment. We introduce a statistical model to calculate likelihood ratios for evaluating DNA evidence arising from multiple known and unknown contributors that allows for such stochastic phenomena by incorporating peak heights. Efficient use of peak heights allows for more crime scene profiles to be reported to courts than is currently possible. The model parameters are estimated from experimental data incorporating multiple sources of variability in the profiling system. We report and analyse experimental results from the SGMPlus system, run at 28 amplification cycles with no enhancements, currently used in the UK. Our methods are readily adapted to other DNA profiling systems provided that the experimental data for the parameter estimation is available. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Missing data arise in crossover trials, as they do in any form of clinical trial. Several papers have addressed the problems that missing data create, although almost all of these assume that the probability that a planned observation is missing does not depend on the value that would have been observed; that is, the data are missing at random (MAR). In many applications, this assumption is likely to be untenable; in which case, the data are missing not at random (MNAR). We investigate the effect on estimates of the treatment effect that assume data are MAR when data are actually MNAR. We also propose using the assumption of no carryover treatment effect, which is usually required for this design, to permit the estimation of a treatment effect when data are MNAR. The results are applied to a trial comparing two treatments for neuropathic pain and show that the estimate of treatment effect is sensitive to the assumption of MAR.

Currently practitioners use a binary approach to DNA profile interpretation. However it is recognised that methods considering peak heights/areas are preferable. In this paper we give an example that shows how peaks in stutter position and preferential amplification can be included in a calculation of likelihood ratios using a model that takes into account peak heights. © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

BACKGROUND: Resurfacing is a popular alternative to a standard hip replacement in young arthritic patients. Despite bone preservation around the femoral component, there is little information regarding the bone quality. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 32 patients underwent consecutive Birmingham hip resurfacing. The bone density of the femoral neck was measured preoperatively and then at 6 weeks, 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years. The femoral neck was divided into regions of interest. Results were available for 27 hips in 26 patients. RESULTS: the overall femoral neck bone density showed a trend towards a decrease at 6 weeks and 3 months but returned to the preoperative level at 1 year, and was maintained at 2 years. The combined superior regions of the neck showed a statistically significant decrease in bone density at 6 weeks and 3 months. This returned to preoperative levels at 1 year and was maintained at 2 years. INTERPRETATION: Bone density appears to decrease at 6 weeks and 3 months, suggesting that care is necessary until bone density begins to recover.