INTRODUCTION: Psychological interventions and antidepressant medication can be effective interventions to prevent depressive relapse for patients currently in remission of depression. Less is known about overall factors that predict or moderate treatment response for patients receiving a psychological intervention for recurrent depression. This is a protocol for an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis which aims to assess predictors and moderators of relapse or recurrence for patients currently in remission from depression. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Searches of PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were completed on 13 October 2019. Study extractions and risk of bias assessments have been completed. Study authors will be asked to contribute IPD. Standard aggregate meta-analysis and IPD analysis will be conducted, and the outcomes will be compared with assess whether results differ between studies supplying data and those that did not. IPD files of individual data will be merged and variables homogenised where possible for consistency. IPD will be analysed via Cox regression and one and two-stage analyses will be conducted. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: the results will be published in peer review journals and shared in a policy briefing as well as accessible formats and shared with a range of stakeholders. The results will inform patients and clinicians and researchers about our current understanding of more personalised ways to prevent a depressive relapse. No local ethics approval was necessary following consultation with the legal department. Guidance on patient data storage and management will be adhered to. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019127844.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model identifying general practices at risk of workforce supply-demand imbalance. DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of routine data on general practice workforce, patient experience and registered populations (2012 to 2016), combined with a census of general practitioners' (GPs') career intentions (2016). SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: a hybrid approach was used to develop a model to predict workforce supply-demand imbalance based on practice factors using historical data (2012-2016) on all general practices in England (with over 1000 registered patients n=6398). The model was applied to current data (2016) to explore future risk for practices in South West England (n=368). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: the primary outcome was a practice being in a state of workforce supply-demand imbalance operationally defined as being in the lowest third nationally of access scores according to the General Practice Patient Survey and the highest third nationally according to list size per full-time equivalent GP (weighted to the demographic distribution of registered patients and adjusted for deprivation). RESULTS: Based on historical data, the predictive model had fair to good discriminatory ability to predict which practices faced supply-demand imbalance (area under receiver operating characteristic curve=0.755). Predictions using current data suggested that, on average, practices at highest risk of future supply-demand imbalance are currently characterised by having larger patient lists, employing more nurses, serving more deprived and younger populations, and having considerably worse patient experience ratings when compared with other practices. Incorporating findings from a survey of GP's career intentions made little difference to predictions of future supply-demand risk status when compared with expected future workforce projections based only on routinely available data on GPs' gender and age. CONCLUSIONS: it is possible to make reasonable predictions of an individual general practice's future risk of undersupply of GP workforce with respect to its patient population. However, the predictions are inherently limited by the data available.

INTRODUCTION: Paediatric acquired brain injury is a leading cause of mortality in children in the UK. Improved treatment during the acute phase has led to increased survival rates, although with life-long morbidity in terms of social and emotional functioning. This is the protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial with an embedded qualitative study and feasibility economic evaluation. If feasible, a later definitive trial will test the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an online intervention to enhance problem solving ability versus treatment as usual. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Twenty-five adolescents and their families identified by primary or secondary care clinicians at participating UK National Health Service Trusts will be recruited and individually randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive the online intervention or treatment as usual. Participants will be followed up by online questionnaires 17 weeks after randomisation to capture acceptability of the study and intervention and resource use data. Qualitative interviews will capture participants' and clinicians' experiences of the study. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been granted ethical approval by the South West-Exeter Research Ethics Committee (ref 17/SW/0083). Results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications and will inform the design of a larger trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN10906069.

© 2019 Background: Previous systematic reviews have indicated that exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (ExCR) for patients with heart failure (HF) has a beneficial effect on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and exercise capacity. However, there is uncertainty regarding potential differential effects of ExCR across HF patient subgroups. Objectives: the authors sought to undertake an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to: 1) assess the impact of ExCR on HRQoL and exercise capacity in patients with HF; and 2) investigate differential effects of ExCR according to a range of patient characteristics: age, sex, ethnicity, New York Heart Association functional class, ischemic etiology, ejection fraction, and exercise capacity. Methods: a single dataset was produced, comprising randomized trials where ExCR (delivered for 3 weeks or more) was compared with a no exercise control group. Each trial provided IPD on HRQoL or exercise capacity (or both), with follow-up of 6 months or more. One- and 2-stage meta-analysis models were used to investigate the effect of ExCR overall and the interactions between ExCR and participant characteristics. Results: IPD was obtained from 13 trials for 3,990 patients, predominantly (97%) with reduced ejection fraction HF. Compared with the control group, there was a statistically significant difference in favor of ExCR for HRQoL and exercise capacity. At 12-month follow-up, improvements were seen in 6-min walk test (mean 21.0 m; 95% confidence interval: 1.57 to 40.4 m; p = 0.034) and Minnesota Living with HF score (mean improvement 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 1.0 to 10.9; p = 0.018). No consistent evidence was found of differential intervention effects across patient subgroups. Conclusions: These results, based on an IPD meta-analysis of randomized trials, confirm the benefit of ExCR on HRQoL and exercise capacity and support the Class I recommendation of current international clinical guidelines that ExCR should be offered to all HF patients. (Exercise Training for Chronic Heart Failure [ExTraMATCH II]: protocol for an individual participant data meta-analysis; PROSPERO: international database of systematic reviews CRD42014007170)

It is common to undertake qualitative research alongside randomised controlled trials (RCTs) when evaluating complex interventions. Researchers tend to analyse these datasets one by one and then consider their findings separately within the discussion section of the final report, rarely integrating quantitative and qualitative data or findings, and missing opportunities to combine data in order to add rigour, enabling thorough and more complete analysis, provide credibility to results, and generate further important insights about the intervention under evaluation. This paper reports on a 2 day expert meeting funded by the United Kingdom Medical Research Council Hubs for Trials Methodology Research with the aims to identify current strengths and weaknesses in the integration of quantitative and qualitative methods in clinical trials, establish the next steps required to provide the trials community with guidance on the integration of mixed methods in RCTs and set-up a network of individuals, groups and organisations willing to collaborate on related methodological activity. We summarise integration techniques and go beyond previous publications by highlighting the potential value of integration using three examples that are specific to RCTs. We suggest that applying mixed methods integration techniques to data or findings from studies involving both RCTs and qualitative research can yield insights that might be useful for understanding variation in outcomes, the mechanism by which interventions have an impact, and identifying ways of tailoring therapy to patient preference and type. Given a general lack of examples and knowledge of these techniques, researchers and funders will need future guidance on how to undertake and appraise them.

BackgroundUK general practice faces a workforce crisis, with general practitioner (GP) shortages, organisational change, substantial pressures across the whole health-care system and an ageing population with increasingly complex health needs. GPs require lengthy training, so retaining the existing workforce is urgent and important.Objectives(1) to identify the key policies and strategies that might (i) facilitate the retention of experienced GPs in direct patient care or (ii) support the return of GPs following a career break. (2) to consider the feasibility of potentially implementing those policies and strategies.DesignThis was a comprehensive, mixed-methods study.SettingThis study took place in primary care in England.ParticipantsGeneral practitioners registered in south-west England were surveyed. Interviews were with purposively selected GPs and primary care stakeholders. A RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method (RAM) panel comprised GP partners and GPs working in national stakeholder organisations. Stakeholder consultations included representatives from regional and national groups.Main outcome measuresSystematic review – factors affecting GPs’ decisions to quit and to take career breaks. Survey – proportion of GPs likely to quit, to take career breaks or to reduce hours spent in patient care within 5 years of being surveyed. Interviews – themes relating to GPs’ decision-making. RAM – a set of policies and strategies to support retention, assessed as ‘appropriate’ and ‘feasible’. Predictive risk modelling – predictive model to identify practices in south-west England at risk of workforce undersupply within 5 years. Stakeholder consultation – comments and key actions regarding implementing emergent policies and strategies from the research.ResultsPast research identified four job-related ‘push’ factors associated with leaving general practice: (1) workload, (2) job dissatisfaction, (3) work-related stress and (4) work–life balance. The survey, returned by 2248 out of 3370 GPs (67%) in the south-west of England, identified a high likelihood of quitting (37%), taking a career break (36%) or reducing hours (57%) within 5 years. Interviews highlighted three drivers of leaving general practice: (1) professional identity and value of the GP role, (2) fear and risk associated with service delivery and (3) career choices. The RAM panel deemed 24 out of 54 retention policies and strategies to be ‘appropriate’, with most also considered ‘feasible’, including identification of and targeted support for practices ‘at risk’ of workforce undersupply and the provision of formal career options for GPs wishing to undertake portfolio roles. Practices at highest risk of workforce undersupply within 5 years are those that have larger patient list sizes, employ more nurses, serve more deprived and younger populations, or have poor patient experience ratings. Actions for national organisations with an interest in workforce planning were identified. These included collection of data on the current scope of GPs’ portfolio roles, and the need for formal career pathways for key primary care professionals, such as practice managers.LimitationsThe survey, qualitative research and modelling were conducted in one UK region. The research took place within a rapidly changing policy environment, providing a challenge in informing emergent policy and practice.ConclusionsThis research identifies the basis for current concerns regarding UK GP workforce capacity, drawing on experiences in south-west England. Policies and strategies identified by expert stakeholders after considering these findings are likely to be of relevance in addressing GP retention in the UK. Collaborative, multidisciplinary research partnerships should investigate the effects of rolling out some of the policies and strategies described in this report.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016033876 and UKCRN ID number 20700.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

BACKGROUND: Around 17% of people attending UK cardiac rehabilitation programmes have depression. Optimising psychological wellbeing is a rehabilitation goal, but provision of psychological care is limited. We developed and piloted an Enhanced Psychological Care (EPC) intervention embedded within cardiac rehabilitation, aiming to test key areas of uncertainty to inform the design of a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) and economic evaluation. METHODS: an external pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) randomised eight cardiac rehabilitation teams (clusters) to either usual care of cardiac rehabilitation provision (UC), or EPC in addition to UC. EPC comprised mental health care coordination and patient-led behavioural activation with nurse support. Adults eligible for cardiac rehabilitation following an acute coronary syndrome and identified with new-onset depressive symptoms during an initial nurse assessment were eligible. Measures were performed at baseline and 5- and 8-month follow-ups and compared between EPC and UC. Team and participant recruitment and retention rates, and participant outcomes (clinical events, depression, anxiety, health-related quality of life, patient experiences, and resource use) were assessed. RESULTS: Eight out of twenty teams were recruited and randomised. of 614 patients screened, 55 were eligible and 29 took part (5%, 95% CI 3 to 7% of those screened), with 15 patient participants cluster randomised to EPC and 14 to UC. Nurse records revealed that 8/15 participants received the maximum number of EPC sessions offered; and 4/15 received no sessions. Seven out of fifteen EPC participants were referred to another NHS psychological service compared to none in UC. We followed up 27/29 participants at 5 months and 17/21 at 8 months. The mean difference (EPC minus UC) in depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory) at follow-up (adjusting for baseline score) was 1.7 (95% CI - 3.8 to 7.3; N = 26) at 5 months and 4.4 (95% CI - 1.4 to 10.2; N = 17) at 8 months. DISCUSSION: While valued by patients and nurses, organisational and workload constraints are significant barriers to EPC implementation. There remains a need to develop and test new models of psychological care within cardiac rehabilitation. Our study offers important data to inform the design of future trials of similar interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN34701576. Registered on 29 May 2014. Funding details: UK NIHR HTA Programme (project 12/189/09).

© 2018, Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature. Page 41, Column 1, Section 3.1, paragraph 2, 1st sentence which Previously read: “In patients who had no prior lines of therapy for advanced disease, an investigator-assessed improvement in median progression-free survival (PFS) was 2.5 months (6.6 months, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.1–8.3) in the OlaDox arm versus 4.1 months (95% CI 2.8–5.4) in the doxorubicin arm (hazard ratio [HR] 0.672; p = 0.0615) [8].” Should read: “In patients who had no prior lines of therapy for advanced disease, an investigator-assessed improvement in median progression-free survival (PFS) for OlaDox was 2.5 months [6.6 months (95% CI 3.1–9.3) in the OlaDox arm versus 4.1 months (95% CI 2.8–6.2) in the doxorubicin arm (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.771; p = 0.2842)] [7].”.

BACKGROUND: Around 19% of people screened by UK cardiac rehabilitation programmes report having moderate or severe symptoms of depression. These individuals are at an increased risk of cardiac mortality and morbidity, reduced quality of life and increased use of health resources compared with their non-depressed counterparts. Maximising psychological health is a goal of cardiac rehabilitation, but psychological care is patchy. OBJECTIVE(S): to examine the feasibility and acceptability of embedding enhanced psychological care (EPC) within cardiac rehabilitation, we tested the feasibility of developing/implementing EPC and documented the key uncertainties associated with undertaking a definitive evaluation. DESIGN: a two-stage multimethods study; a feasibility study and a qualitative evaluation, followed by an external pilot cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a nested qualitative study. SETTING: UK comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation teams. PARTICIPANTS: Adults eligible for cardiac rehabilitation following an acute coronary syndrome with new-onset depressive symptoms on initial nurse assessment. Patients who had received treatment for depression in the preceding 6 months were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: the EPC intervention comprised nurse-led mental health-care co-ordination and behavioural activation within cardiac rehabilitation. The comparator was usual cardiac rehabilitation care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Measures at baseline, and at the 5- (feasibility and pilot) and 8-month follow-ups (pilot only). Process measures related to cardiac team and patient recruitment, and participant retention. Outcomes included depressive symptoms, cardiac mortality and morbidity, anxiety, health-related quality of life and service resource use. Interviews explored participant and nurses' views and experiences. RESULTS: Between September 2014 and May 2015, five nurses from four teams recruited participants into the feasibility study. of the 203 patients screened, 30 were eligible and nine took part (the target was 20 participants). At interview, participants and nurses gave valuable insights into the EPC intervention design and delivery. Although acceptable, the EPC delivery was challenging for nurses (e.g. the ability to allocate sufficient time within existing workloads) and the intervention was modified accordingly. Between December 2014 and February 2015, 8 out of 20 teams approached agreed to participate in the pilot RCT [five were randomised to the EPC arm and three were randomised to the usual-care (UC) arm]. of the 614 patients screened, 55 were eligible and 29 took part (the target was 43 participants). At baseline, the trial arms were well matched for sex and ethnicity, although the EPC arm participants were younger, from more deprived areas and had higher depression scores than the UC participants. A total of 27 out of 29 participants were followed up at 5 months. Interviews with 18 participants (12 in the EPC arm and six in the UC arm) and seven nurses who delivered EPC identified that both groups acknowledged the importance of receiving psychological support embedded within routine cardiac rehabilitation. For those experiencing/delivering EPC, the intervention was broadly acceptable, albeit challenging to deliver within existing care. LIMITATIONS: Both the feasibility and the pilot studies encountered significant challenges in recruiting patients, which limited the power of the pilot study analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac rehabilitation nurses can be trained to deliver EPC. Although valued by both patients and nurses, organisational and workload constraints were significant barriers to implementation in participating teams, suggesting that future research may require a modified approach to intervention delivery within current service arrangements. We obtained important data informing definitive research regarding participant recruitment and retention, and optimal methods of data collection. FUTURE RESEARCH: Consideration should be given to the delivery of EPC by dedicated mental health practitioners, working closely with cardiac rehabilitation services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN34701576. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability and effectiveness of webGP as piloted by six general practices. METHODS: Mixed-methods evaluation, including data extraction from practice databases, general practitioner (GP) completion of case reports, patient questionnaires and staff interviews. SETTING: General practices in NHS Northern, Eastern and Western Devon Clinical Commissioning Group's area approximately 6 months after implementing webGP (February-July 2016). PARTICIPANTS: Six practices provided consultations data; 20 GPs completed case reports (regarding 61 e-consults); 81 patients completed questionnaires; 5 GPs and 5 administrators were interviewed. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attitudes and experiences of practice staff and patients regarding webGP. RESULTS: WebGP uptake during the evaluation was small, showing no discernible impact on practice workload. The completeness of cross-sectional data on consultation workload varied between practices.GPs judged 41/61 (72%) of webGP requests to require a face-to-face or telephone consultation. Introducing webGP appeared to be associated with shifts in responsibility and workload between practice staff and between practices and patients.81/231 patients completed a postal survey (35.1% response rate). E-Consulters were somewhat younger and more likely to be employed than face-to-face respondents. WebGP appeared broadly acceptable to patients regarding timeliness and quality/experience of care provided. Similar problems were presented by all respondents. Both groups appeared equally familiar with other practice online services; e-consulters were somewhat more likely to have used them.From semistructured staff interviews, it appeared that, while largely acceptable within practice, introducing e-consults had potential for adverse interactions with pre-existing practice systems. CONCLUSIONS: There is potential to assess the impact of new systems on consultation patterns by extracting routine data from practice databases. Staff and patients noticed subtle changes to responsibilities associated with online options. Greater uptake requires good communication between practice and patients, and organisation of systems to avoid conflicts and misuse. Further research is required to evaluate the full potential of webGP in managing practice workload.

AIMS: to undertake an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess the impact of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (ExCR) in patients with heart failure (HF) on mortality and hospitalisation, and differential effects of ExCR according to patient characteristics: age, sex, ethnicity, New York Heart Association functional class, ischaemic aetiology, ejection fraction, and exercise capacity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Randomised trials of exercise training for at least 3 weeks compared with no exercise control with 6-month follow-up or longer, providing IPD time to event on mortality or hospitalisation (all-cause or HF-specific). IPD were combined into a single dataset. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the effect of ExCR and the interactions between ExCR and participant characteristics. We used both two-stage random effects and one-stage fixed effect models. IPD were obtained from 18 trials including 3912 patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction. Compared to control, there was no statistically significant difference in pooled time to event estimates in favour of ExCR although confidence intervals (CIs) were wide [all-cause mortality: hazard ratio (HR) 0.83, 95% CI 0.67-1.04; HF-specific mortality: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.49-1.46; all-cause hospitalisation: HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.76-1.06; and HF-specific hospitalisation: HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.72-1.35]. No strong evidence was found of differential intervention effects across patient characteristics. CONCLUSION: Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation did not have a significant effect on the risk of mortality and hospitalisation in HF with reduced ejection fraction. However, uncertainty around effect estimates precludes drawing definitive conclusions.

BACKGROUND: in bipolar spectrum disorder, some individuals experience ongoing, frequent fluctuations in mood outside of affective episodes. There are currently no evidence-based psychological interventions designed to address this. This feasibility study is a phase II evaluation of a dialectical behavioural therapy-informed approach (Therapy for Inter-episode mood Variability in Bipolar [ThrIVe-B]). It seeks to examine the feasibility and acceptability of a future definitive trial evaluating the clinical and cost effectiveness of the ThrIVe-B programme. METHODS/DESIGN: Patients will be randomised 1:1 to either treatment as usual only (control arm) or the ThrIVe-B intervention plus treatment as usual (intervention arm). Follow-up points will be at 3, 6, 9 and 15 months after baseline, with 9 months as the primary end point for the candidate primary outcome measures. We aim to recruit 48 individuals meeting diagnostic criteria for a bipolar spectrum disorder and reporting frequent mood swings outside of acute episodes, through primary and secondary care services and self-referral. To evaluate feasibility and acceptability, we will examine recruitment and retention rates, completion rates for study measures and feedback from participants on their experience of study participation and therapy. DISCUSSION: Proceeding to a definitive trial will be indicated if the following criteria are met: (1) trial participation does not lead to serious negative consequences for our participants; (2) any serious concerns about the acceptability and feasibility of the trial procedures can be rectified prior to a definitive trial; (3) follow-up data at 9 months are available for at least 60% of participants; (4) at least 60% of patients in the ThrIVe-B arm complete treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN54234300. Registered on 20 July 2017.

© 2018 Objectives: This study sought to validate exercise capacity (EC) as a surrogate for mortality, hospitalization, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Background: EC is often used as a primary outcome in exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) trials of heart failure (HF) via direct cardiorespiratory assessment of maximum oxygen uptake (VO2peak) or through submaximal tests, such as the 6-min walk test (6MWT). Methods: After a systematic review, 31 randomized trials of exercise-based CR compared with no exercise control (4,784 HF patients) were included. Outcomes were pooled using random effects meta-analyses, and inverse variance weighted linear regression equations were fitted to estimate the relationship between the CR on EC and all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and HRQOL. Spearman correlation coefficient (ρ), R2 at trial level, and surrogate threshold effect (STE) were calculated. STE represents the intercept of the prediction band of the regression line with null effect on the final outcome. Results: Exercise-based CR is associated with positive effects on EC measured through VO2peak (+3.10 ml/kg/min; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.01 to 4.20) or 6MWT (+41.15 m; 95% CI: 16.68 to 65.63) compared to control. The analyses showed a low level of association between improvements in EC (VO2peak or 6MWT) and mortality and hospitalization. Moderate levels of correlation between EC with HRQOL were seen (e.g. R2

INTRODUCTION: Individual cohort studies in various populations and study-level meta-analyses have shown interarm differences (IAD) in blood pressure to be associated with increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. However, key questions remain, such as follows: (1) What is the additional contribution of IAD to prognostic risk estimation for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality? (2) What is the minimum cut-off value for IAD that defines elevated risk? (3) is there a prognostic value of IAD and do different methods of IAD measurement impact on the prognostic value of IAD? We aim to address these questions by conducting an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will identify prospective cohort studies that measured blood pressure in both arms during recruitment, and invite authors to contribute IPD datasets to this collaboration. All patient data received will be combined into a single dataset. Using one-stage meta-analysis, we will undertake multivariable time-to-event regression modelling, with the aim of developing a new prognostic model for cardiovascular risk estimation that includes IAD. We will explore variations in risk contribution of IAD across predefined population subgroups (eg, hypertensives, diabetics), establish the lower limit of IAD that is associated with additional cardiovascular risk and assess the impact of different methods of IAD measurement on risk prediction. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study will not include any patient identifiable data. Included datasets will already have ethical approval and consent from their sponsors. Findings will be presented to international conferences and published in peer reviewed journals, and we have a comprehensive dissemination strategy in place with integrated patient and public involvement. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42015031227.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a common, debilitating and costly disorder. The best-evidenced psychological therapy - cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) - is complex and costly. A simpler therapy, behavioural activation (BA), may be an effective alternative. OBJECTIVES: to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of BA compared with CBT for depressed adults at 12 and 18 months' follow-up, and to investigate the processes of treatments. DESIGN: Randomised controlled, non-inferiority trial stratified by depression severity, antidepressant use and recruitment site, with embedded process evaluation; and randomisation by remote computer-generated allocation. SETTING: Three community mental health services in England. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥ 18 years with major depressive disorder (MDD) recruited from primary care and psychological therapy services. INTERVENTIONS: BA delivered by NHS junior mental health workers (MHWs); CBT by NHS psychological therapists. OUTCOMES: Primary: depression severity (as measured via the Patient Health Questionnaire-9; PHQ-9) at 12 months. Secondary: MDD status; number of depression-free days; anxiety (as measured via the Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7); health-related quality of life (as measured via the Short Form questionnaire-36 items) at 6, 12 and 18 months; and PHQ-9 at 6 and 18 months, all collected by assessors blinded to treatment allocation. Non-inferiority margin was 1.9 PHQ-9 points. We undertook intention-to-treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) analyses. We explored cost-effectiveness by collecting direct treatment and other health- and social-care costs and calculating quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, three-level version, at 18 months. RESULTS: We recruited 440 participants (BA, n = 221; CBT, n = 219); 175 (79%) BA and 189 (86%) CBT participants provided ITT data and 135 (61%) BA and 151 (69%) CBT participants provided PP data. At 12 months we found that BA was non-inferior to CBT {ITT: CBT 8.4 PHQ-9 points [standard deviation (SD) 7.5 PHQ-9 points], BA 8.4 PHQ-9 points (SD 7.0 PHQ-9 points), mean difference 0.1 PHQ-9 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.3 to 1.5 PHQ-9 points, p = 0.89; PP: CBT 7.9 PHQ-9 points (SD 7.3 PHQ-9 points), BA 7.8 PHQ-9 points (SD 6.5 PHQ-9 points), mean difference 0.0 PHQ-9 points, 95% CI -1.5 to 1.6 PHQ-9 points, p = 0.99}. We found no differences in secondary outcomes. We found a significant difference in mean intervention costs (BA, £975; CBT, £1235; p 

OBJECTIVE: Given recent concerns regarding general practitioner (GP) workforce capacity, we aimed to describe GPs' career intentions, especially those which might impact on GP workforce availability over the next 5 years. DESIGN: Census survey, conducted between April and June 2016 using postal and online responses , of all GPs on the National Health Service performers list and eligible to practise in primary care. Two reminders were used as necessary. SETTING: South West England (population 3.5  million), a region with low overall socioeconomic deprivation. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible GPs were 2248 out of 3370 (67 % response rate). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reported likelihood of permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care or of taking a career break within the next 5 years and present morale weighted for non-response. RESULTS: Responders included 217 7 GPs engaged in patient care. of these, 863 (37% weighted, 95%  CI 35 % to 39 %) reported a high likelihood of quitting direct patient care within the next 5 years. Overall, 1535 (70% weighted, 95%  CI 68 % to 72 %) respondents reported a career intention that would negatively impact GP workforce capacity over the next 5 years, through permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care, or through taking a career break. GP age was an important predictor of career intentions; sharp increases in the proportion of GPs intending to quit patient care were evident from 52 years. Only 305 (14% weighted, 95%  CI 13 % to 16 %) reported high morale, while 1195 ( 54 % weighted, 95%  CI 52 % to 56 %) reported low morale. Low morale was particularly common among GP partners. Current morale strongly predicted GPs' career intentions; those with very low morale were particularly likely to report intentions to quit patient care or to take a career break. CONCLUSIONS: a substantial majority of GPs in South West England report low morale. Many are considering career intentions which, if implemented, would adversely impact GP workforce capacity within a short time period. STUDY REGISTRATION: NIHR HS&DR - 14/196/02, UKCRN ID 20700.

INTRODUCTION: Economically disadvantaged smokers not intending to stop may benefit from interventions aimed at reducing their smoking. This study assessed the effects of a behavioral intervention promoting an increase in physical activity versus usual care in a pilot randomized controlled trial. METHODS: Disadvantaged smokers who wanted to reduce but not quit were randomized to either a counseling intervention of up to 12 weeks to support smoking reduction and increased physical activity (n = 49) or usual care (n = 50). Data at 16 weeks were collected for various smoking and physical activity outcomes. Primary analyses consisted of an intention to treat analysis based on complete case data. Secondary analyses explored the impact of handling missing data. RESULTS: Compared with controls, intervention smokers were more likely to initiate a quit attempt (36 vs. 10%; odds ratio 5.05, [95% CI: 1.10; 23.15]), and a greater proportion achieved at least 50% reduction in cigarettes smoked (63 vs. 32%; 4.21 [1.32; 13.39]). Postquit abstinence measured by exhaled carbon monoxide at 4-week follow-up showed promising differences between groups (23% vs. 6%; 4.91 [0.80; 30.24]). No benefit of intervention on physical activity was found. Secondary analyses suggested that the standard missing data assumption of "missing" being equivalent to "smoking" may be conservative resulting in a reduced intervention effect. CONCLUSIONS: a smoking reduction intervention for economically disadvantaged smokers which involved personal support to increase physical activity appears to be more effective than usual care in achieving reduction and may promote cessation. The effect does not appear to be influenced by an increase in physical activity.

BACKGROUND: Around 17% of people eligible for UK cardiac rehabilitation programmes following an acute coronary syndrome report moderate or severe depressive symptoms. While maximising psychological health is a core goal of cardiac rehabilitation, psychological care can be fragmented and patchy. This study tests the feasibility and acceptability of embedding enhanced psychological care, composed of two management strategies of proven effectiveness in other settings (nurse-led mental health care coordination and behavioural activation), within the cardiac rehabilitation care pathway. METHODS/DESIGN: This study tests the uncertainties associated with a large-scale evaluation by conducting an external pilot trial with a nested qualitative study. We aim to recruit and randomise eight comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation teams (clusters) to intervention (embedding enhanced psychological care into routine cardiac rehabilitation programmes) or control (routine cardiac rehabilitation programmes alone) arms. Up to 64 patients (eight per team) identified with depressive symptoms upon initial assessment by the cardiac rehabilitation team will be recruited, and study measures will be administered at baseline (before starting rehabilitation) and at 5 months and 8 months post baseline. Outcomes include depressive symptoms, cardiac mortality and morbidity, anxiety, health-related quality of life and service resource use. Trial data on cardiac team and patient recruitment, and the retention and flow of patients through treatment will be used to assess intervention feasibility and acceptability. Qualitative interviews will be undertaken to explore trial participants' and cardiac rehabilitation nurses' views and experiences of the trial methods and intervention, and to identify reasons why patients declined to take part in the trial. Outcome data will inform a sample size calculation for a definitive trial. DISCUSSION: the pilot trial and qualitative study will inform the design of a fully powered cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the provision of enhanced psychological care within cardiac rehabilitation programmes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN34701576 (Registered 29 May 2014).

BACKGROUND: Study attrition has the potential to compromise a trial's internal and external validity. The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with participant attrition in a pilot trial of the effectiveness of a novel behavioural support intervention focused on increasing physical activity to reduce smoking, to inform the methods to reduce attrition in a definitive trial. METHODS: Disadvantaged smokers who wanted to reduce but not quit were randomised (N = 99), of whom 61 (62 %) completed follow-up assessments at 16 weeks. Univariable logistic regression was conducted to determine the effects of intervention arm, method of recruitment, and participant characteristics (sociodemographic factors, and lifestyle, behavioural and attitudinal characteristics) on attrition, followed by multivariable logistic regression on those factors found to be related to attrition. RESULTS: Participants with low confidence to quit, and who were undertaking less than 150 mins of moderate and vigorous physical activity per week at baseline were less likely to complete the 16-week follow-up assessment. Exploratory analysis revealed that those who were lost to follow-up early in the trial (i.e. by 4 weeks), compared with those completing the study, were younger, had smoked for fewer years and had lower confidence to quit in the next 6 months. Participants who recorded a higher expired air carbon monoxide reading at baseline were more likely to drop out late in the study, as were those recruited via follow-up telephone calls. Multivariable analyses showed that only completing less than 150 mins of physical activity retained any confidence in predicting attrition in the presence of other variables. CONCLUSIONS: the findings indicate that those who take more effort to be recruited, are younger, are heavier smokers, have less confidence to quit, and are less physically active are more likely to withdraw or be lost to follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests acupuncture may be effective for treating the symptoms of knee osteoarthritis. Offering this in a group setting may offer cost savings. The aim of this study was to establish the feasibility of a definitive trial to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of Western medical acupuncture given in groups, or given individually, for adults with severe knee pain attributable to osteoarthritis. METHODS: a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) was conducted. Participants were recruited from seven general practices in Plymouth, Devon. Acupuncture was provided, at a dosage that increased up to and including electroacupuncture if no pain relief was reported, by one experienced acupuncturist in a community clinic. Potentially eligible adults aged at least 45 years with knee osteoarthritis were identified from practice registers, screened and randomised to either: (1) standardised advice and exercise booklet alone ('standard'); (2) booklet plus group acupuncture ('group'); and (3) booklet plus individual acupuncture ('individual'). Both acupuncture arms received up to ten treatments over 12 weeks. Recruitment, retention and data completion rates were recorded, and participants completed questionnaires on acceptability. We collected pain, stiffness and function data (using the Western Ontario McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index; WOMAC) and general health (EQ-5D) and economic measures at baseline and 14 weeks post-randomisation. RESULTS: We screened 149 people and randomised 60 (40 %), 20 per arm. The overall 14 week follow-up rate was 77 %, but only 70 % in the 'standard' group; 4.1 % of data points were missing. The study was acceptable to participants. Changes in WOMAC pain score (intention to treat complete case analysis) from baseline to 14 week follow-up were: 'standard', 0.4 (95 % confidence interval (CI) -1.4, 2.2, n = 14); 'group' -3.2 (95 % CI -5.1, -1.4, n = 17); 'individual' -2.4 (95 % CI -4.1, -0.7, n = 15). CONCLUSIONS: a definitive three-arm trial is feasible. Further follow-up reminders, minimum data collection and incentives should be considered to improve participant retention in the follow-up processes in the standardised advice and exercise booklet arm. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN05305406.

OBJECTIVE: over three million people aged over 65 fall each year in the UK. Postural hypotension (PH) is a risk factor for falls. It is associated with excess mortality, and may affect cognition. PH is not routinely checked for in UK clinical practice. We studied the InCHIANTI dataset to derive and validate a simple prediction tool designed to facilitate identification of subjects to be checked for PH. DESIGN AND METHOD: InCHIANTI is a population-based study of ageing. It recruited subjects from population registries in Chianti, Italy in 1998 and they were followed up triennially. Blood pressure (BP) at recruitment was measured after resting supine, and one and three minutes after standing, using a mercury sphygmomanometer. Systolic PH was defined as a > = 20 mmHg fall in supine BP on standing. Subjects were randomised to derivation or validation cohorts; allocation was undertaken blinded to PH status and medical history. Candidate predictor variables identified from literature searches were tested for univariable cross sectional associations with PH using χ2 tests. Those with significant associations were entered into multivariable linear regression models, and used to derive simple and weighted prediction scores (DROP scores). DROP scores were tested in the validation cohort for prediction of PH, future falls, cognitive decline and mortality rates. RESULTS: PH was present in 56/726 (7.7%) of the derivation cohort and 45/727 (6.2%) of the validation cohort (p = 0.25). PH was associated with age > = 65, falls in the preceding year, diabetes, previous stroke, hypertension and Parkinson's disease. A simple score summing numbers of these variables performed equally well as weighted scores (AUROC 0.67 (0.59 to 0.74); p 

OBJECTIVE: to investigate the experience of users of out of hours general practitioner services in England, UK. DESIGN: Population based cross sectional postal questionnaire survey. SETTING: General Practice Patient Survey 2012-13. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Potential associations between sociodemographic factors (including ethnicity and ability to take time away from work during working hours to attend a healthcare consultation) and provider organisation type (not for profit, NHS, or commercial) and service users' experience of out of hours care (timeliness, confidence and trust in the out of hours clinician, and overall experience of the service), rated on a scale of 0-100. Which sociodemographic/provider characteristics were associated with service users' experience, the extent to which any observed differences could be because of clustering of service users of a particular sociodemographic group within poorer scoring providers, and the extent to which observed differences in experience varied across types of provider. RESULTS: the overall response rate was 35%; 971,232/2,750,000 patients returned surveys. Data from 902,170 individual service users were mapped through their registered practice to one of 86 providers of out of hours GP care with known organisation type. Commercial providers of out of hours GP care were associated with poorer reports of overall experience of care, with a mean difference of -3.13 (95% confidence interval -4.96 to -1.30) compared with not for profit providers. Asian service users reported lower scores for all three experience outcomes than white service users (mean difference for overall experience of care -3.62, -4.36 to -2.89), as did service users who were unable to take time away from work compared with service users who did not work (mean difference for overall experience of care -4.73, -5.29 to -4.17). CONCLUSIONS: Commercial providers of out of hours GP care were associated with poorer experience of care. Targeted interventions aimed at improving experience for patients from ethnic minorities and patients who are unable to take time away from work might be warranted.

INTRODUCTION: the Rehabilitation EnAblement in CHronic Heart Failure (REACH-HF) trial is part of a research programme designed to develop and evaluate a health professional facilitated, home-based, self-help rehabilitation intervention to improve self-care and health-related quality of life in people with heart failure and their caregivers. The trial will assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the REACH-HF intervention in patients with systolic heart failure and impact on the outcomes of their caregivers. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: a parallel two group randomised controlled trial with 1:1 individual allocation to the REACH-HF intervention plus usual care (intervention group) or usual care alone (control group) in 216 patients with systolic heart failure (ejection fraction

Background
Depression is associated with physical inactivity, which may mediate the relationship between depression and a range of chronic physical health conditions. However, few interventions have combined a psychological intervention for depression with behaviour change techniques, such as behavioural activation (BA), to promote increased physical activity.

Methods
To determine procedural and clinical uncertainties to inform a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT), a pilot parallel-group RCT was undertaken within two Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services in South West England. We aimed to recruit 80 adults with depression and randomise them to a supported, written self-help programme based on either BA or BA plus physical activity promotion (BAcPAc). Data were collected at baseline and 4 months post-randomisation to evaluate trial retention, intervention uptake and variance in outcomes to inform a sample size calculation. Qualitative data were collected from participants and psychological wellbeing practitioners (PWPs) to assess the acceptability and feasibility of the trial methods and the intervention. Routine data were collected to evaluate resource use and cost.

Results
Sixty people with depression were recruited, and a 73 % follow-up rate was achieved. Accelerometer physical activity data were collected for 64 % of those followed. Twenty participants (33 %) attended at least one treatment appointment. Interview data were analysed for 15 participants and 9 study PWPs. The study highlighted the challenges of conducting an RCT within existing IAPT services with high staff turnover and absences, participant scheduling issues, PWP and participant preferences for cognitive focussed treatment, and deviations from BA delivery protocols. The BAcPAc intervention was generally acceptable to patients and PWPs.

Conclusions
Although recruitment procedures and data collection were challenging, participants generally engaged with the BAcPAc self-help booklets and reported willingness to increase their physical activity. A number of feasibility issues were identified, in particular the under-use of BA as a treatment for depression, the difficulty that PWPs had in adapting their existing procedures for study purposes and the instability of the IAPT PWP workforce. These problems would need to be better understood and resolved before proceeding to a full-scale RCT.

The ESTEEM trial was a randomised-controlled trial of telephone triage consultations in general practice. We conducted exploratory analyses on data from 9154 patients from 42 UK general practices who returned a questionnaire containing self-reported ratings of satisfaction with care following a request for a same-day consultation. Mode of care was identified through case notes review. There were seven main types: a GP face-to-face consultation, GP or nurse telephone triage consultation with no subsequent same day care, or a GP or nurse telephone triage consultation with a subsequent face-to-face consultation with a GP or a nurse. We investigated the contribution of mode of care to patient satisfaction and distance between the patient’s home and the practice as a potential moderating factor. There was no overall association between patient satisfaction and distance from practice. However, patients managed by a nurse telephone consultation showed lowest levels of satisfaction, and satisfaction for this group of patients increased the further they lived from the practice. There was no association between any of the other modes of management and distance from practice.

INTRODUCTION: it is believed that some patients are more likely to use out-of-hours primary care services because of difficulties in accessing in-hours care, but substantial evidence about any such association is missing. METHODS: We analysed data from 567,049 respondents to the 2011/2012 English General Practice Patient Survey who reported at least one in-hours primary care consultation in the preceding 6â€
months. of those respondents, 7% also reported using out-of-hours primary care. We used logistic regression to explore associations between use of out-of-hours primary care and five measures of in-hours access (ease of getting through on the telephone, ability to see a preferred general practitioner, ability to get an urgent or routine appointment and convenience of opening hours). We illustrated the potential for reduction in use of out-of-hours primary care in a model where access to in-hours care was made optimal. RESULTS: Worse in-hours access was associated with greater use of out-of-hours primary care for each access factor. In multivariable analysis adjusting for access and patient characteristic variables, worse access was independently associated with increased out-of-hours use for all measures except ease of telephone access. Assuming these associations were causal, we estimated that an 11% relative reduction in use of out-of-hours primary care services in England could be achievable if access to in-hours care were optimal. CONCLUSIONS: This secondary quantitative analysis provides evidence for an association between difficulty in accessing in-hours care and use of out-of-hours primary care services. The findings can motivate the development of interventions to improve in-hour access.

BACKGROUND: the ESTEEM trial was a cluster randomised controlled trial that compared two telephone triage management systems (general practitioner (GP) or a nurse supported by computer decision support software) with usual care, in response to a request for same-day consultation in general practice. AIM: to investigate associations between trial patients' demographic, health, and lifestyle characteristics, and their reported experiences of care. SETTING: Recruitment of 20â€
990 patients occurred between May 2011 and December 2012 in 42 GP practices in England (13 GP triage, 15 nurse triage, 14 usual care). METHOD: Patients reported their experiences via a postal questionnaire issued 4â€
weeks after their initial request for a same-day consultation. Overall satisfaction, ease of accessing medical help/advice, and convenience of care were analysed using linear hierarchical modelling. RESULTS: Questionnaires were returned by 12â€
132 patients (58%). Older patients reported increased overall satisfaction compared with patients aged 25-59â€
years, but patients aged 16-24â€
years reported lower satisfaction. Compared with white patients, patients from ethnic minorities reported lower satisfaction in all three arms, although to a lesser degree in the GP triage arm. Patients from ethnic minorities reported higher satisfaction in the GP triage than in usual care, whereas white patients reported higher satisfaction with usual care. Patients unable to take time away from work or who could only do so with difficulty reported lower satisfaction across all three trial arms. CONCLUSIONS: Patient characteristics, such as age, ethnicity and ability to attend their practice during work hours, were associated with their experiences of care following a same-day consultation request in general practice. Telephone triage did not increase satisfaction among patients who were unable to attend their practice during working hours. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISCRTN20687662.

BACKGROUND: Telephone triage is proposed as a method of managing increasing demand for primary care. Previous studies have involved small samples in limited settings, and focused on nurse roles. Evidence is limited regarding the impact on primary care workload, costs, and patient safety and experience when triage is used to manage patients requesting same-day consultations in general practice. OBJECTIVES: in comparison with usual care (UC), to assess the impact of GP-led telephone triage (GPT) and nurse-led computer-supported telephone triage (NT) on primary care workload and cost, patient experience of care, and patient safety and health status for patients requesting same-day consultations in general practice. DESIGN: Pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial, incorporating economic evaluation and qualitative process evaluation. SETTING: General practices (n = 42) in four regions of England, UK (Devon, Bristol/Somerset, Warwickshire/Coventry, Norfolk/Suffolk). PARTICIPANTS: Patients requesting same-day consultations. INTERVENTIONS: Practices were randomised to GPT, NT or UC. Data collection was not blinded; however, analysis was conducted by a statistician blinded to practice allocation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary - primary care contacts [general practice, out-of-hours primary care, accident and emergency (A&E) and walk-in centre attendances] in the 28 days following the index consultation request. Secondary - resource use and costs, patient safety (deaths and emergency hospital admissions within 7 days of index request, and A&E attendance within 28 days), health status and experience of care. RESULTS: of 20,990 eligible randomised patients (UC n = 7283; GPT n = 6695; NT n = 7012), primary outcome data were analysed for 16,211 patients (UC n = 5572; GPT n = 5171; NT n = 5468). Compared with UC, GPT and NT increased primary outcome contacts (over 28-day follow-up) by 33% [rate ratio (RR) 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30 to 1.36] and 48% (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.52), respectively. Compared with GPT, NT was associated with a marginal increase in primary outcome contacts by 4% (RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.08). Triage was associated with a redistribution of primary care contacts. Although GPT, compared with UC, increased the rate of overall GP contacts (face to face and telephone) over the 28 days by 38% (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.50), GP face-to-face contacts were reduced by 39% (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.69). NT reduced the rate of overall GP contacts by 16% (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.91) and GP face-to-face contacts by 20% (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.90), whereas nurse contacts increased. The increased rate of primary care contacts in triage arms is largely attributable to increased telephone contacts. Estimated overall patient-clinician contact time on the index day increased in triage (GPT = 10.3 minutes; NT = 14.8 minutes; UC = 9.6 minutes), although patterns of clinician use varied between arms. Taking account of both the pattern and duration of primary outcome contacts, overall costs over the 28-day follow-up were similar in all three arms (approximately £75 per patient). Triage appeared safe, and no differences in patient health status were observed. NT was somewhat less acceptable to patients than GPT or UC. The process evaluation identified the complexity associated with introducing triage but found no consistency across practices about what works and what does not work when implementing it. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing GPT or NT was associated with a redistribution of primary care workload for patients requesting same-day consultations, and at similar cost to UC. Although triage seemed to be safe, investigation of the circumstances of a larger number of deaths or admissions after triage might be warranted, and monitoring of these events is necessary as triage is implemented. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN20687662. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 13. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BACKGROUND: There have been few rigorous studies on the effects of behavioural support for helping smokers to reduce who do not immediately wish to quit. While reduction may not have the health benefits of quitting, it may lead smokers to want to quit. Physical activity (PA) helps to reduce cravings and withdrawal symptoms, and also reduces weight gain after quitting, but smokers may be less inclined to exercise. There is scope to develop and determine the effectiveness of interventions to support smoking reduction and increase physical activity, for those not ready to quit. OBJECTIVE: to conduct a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) [Exercise Assisted Reduction then Stop (EARS) smoking study] to (1) design and evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of a PA and smoking-reduction counselling intervention [for disadvantaged smokers who do not wish to quit but do want to reduce their smoking (to increase the likelihood of quitting)], and (2) to inform the design of a large RCT to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. DESIGN: a single-centre, pragmatic, pilot trial with follow-up up to 16 weeks. A mixed methods approach assessed the acceptability and feasibility of the intervention and trial methods. Smokers were individually randomised to intervention or control arms. SETTING: General practices, NHS buildings, community venues, and the Stop Smoking Service (SSS) within Plymouth, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Aged > 18 years, smoking ≥ 10 cigarettes per day (for ≥ 2 years) who wished to cut down. We excluded individuals who were contraindicated for moderate PA, posed a safety risk to the research team, wished to quit immediately or use Nicotine Replacement Therapy, not registered with a general practitioner, or did not converse in English. INTERVENTION: We designed a client-centred, counselling-based intervention designed to support smoking reduction and increases in PA. Support sessions were delivered by trained counsellors either face to face or by telephone. Both intervention and control arms were given information at baseline on specialist SSS support available should they have wished to quit. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the primary outcome was 4-week post-quit expired air carbon monoxide (CO)-confirmed abstinence from smoking. Secondary outcomes included validated behavioural, cognitive and emotional/affective and health-related quality of life measures and treatment costs. RESULTS: the study randomised 99 participants, 49 to the intervention arm and 50 to the control arm, with a 62% follow-up rate at 16 weeks. In the intervention and control arms, 14% versus 4%, respectively [relative risk = 3.57; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 16.35], had expired CO-confirmed abstinence at least 4 and up to 8 weeks after quit day; 22% versus 6% (relative risk = 3.74; 95% CI 1.11 to 12.60) made a quit attempt; 10% versus 4% (relative risk = 92.55; 95% CI 0.52 to 12.53) achieved point-prevalent abstinence at 16 weeks; and 39% versus 20% (relative risk = 1.94; 95% CI 1.01 to 3.74) achieved at least a 50% reduction in the number of cigarettes smoked daily. The percentage reporting using PA for controlling smoking in the intervention versus control arms was 55% versus 22%, respectively at 8 weeks and 37% versus 16%, respectively, at 16 weeks. The counsellors generally delivered the intervention as planned and participants responded with a variety of smoking reduction strategies, sometimes supported by changes in PA. The intervention costs were approximately £192 per participant. Exploratory cost-effectiveness modelling indicates that the intervention may be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: the study provided valuable information on the resources needed to improve study recruitment and retention. Offering support for smoking reduction and PA appears to have value in promoting reduction and cessation in disadvantaged smokers not currently motivated to quit. A large RCT is needed to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the intervention in this population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 13837944. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment, Vol. 18, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: Challenges remain to find ways to support patients with depression who have low levels of physical activity (PA) to overcome perceived barriers and enhance the perceived value of PA for preventing future relapse. There is an evidence-base for behavioural activation (BA) for depression, which focuses on supporting patients to restore activities that have been avoided, but practitioners have no specific training in promoting PA. We aimed to design and evaluate an integrated BA and PA (BAcPAc) practitioner-led, written, self-help intervention to enhance both physical and mental health.Methods/design: This study is informed by the Medical Research Council Complex Intervention Framework and describes a protocol for a pilot phase II randomised controlled trial (RCT) to test the feasibility and acceptability of the trial methods to inform a definitive phase III RCT. Following development of the augmented written self-help intervention (BAcPAc) incorporating behavioural activation with physical activity promotion, depressed adults are randomised to receive up to 12 sessions over a maximum of 4 months of either BAcPAc or behavioural activation alone within a written self-help format, which represents treatment as usual. The study is located within two 'Improving Access to Psychological Therapies' services in South West England, with both written self-help interventions supported by mental health paraprofessionals. Measures assessed at 4, 9, and 12 month follow-up include the following: CIS-R, PHQ-9, accelerometer recorded (4 months only) and self-reported PA, body mass index, blood pressure, Insomnia Severity Index, quality of life, and health and social care service use. Process evaluation will include analysis of recorded support sessions and patient and practitioner interviews. At the time of writing the study has recruited 60 patients.Discussion: the feasibility outcomes will inform a definitive RCT to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the augmented BAcPAc written self-help intervention to reduce depression and depressive relapse, and bring about improvements across a range of physical health outcomes.Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN74390532, 26.03.2013. © 2014 Farrand et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

BACKGROUND: Challenges remain to find ways to support patients with depression who have low levels of physical activity (PA) to overcome perceived barriers and enhance the perceived value of PA for preventing future relapse. There is an evidence-base for behavioural activation (BA) for depression, which focuses on supporting patients to restore activities that have been avoided, but practitioners have no specific training in promoting PA. We aimed to design and evaluate an integrated BA and PA (BAcPAc) practitioner-led, written, self-help intervention to enhance both physical and mental health. METHODS/DESIGN: This study is informed by the Medical Research Council Complex Intervention Framework and describes a protocol for a pilot phase II randomised controlled trial (RCT) to test the feasibility and acceptability of the trial methods to inform a definitive phase III RCT. Following development of the augmented written self-help intervention (BAcPAc) incorporating behavioural activation with physical activity promotion, depressed adults are randomised to receive up to 12 sessions over a maximum of 4 months of either BAcPAc or behavioural activation alone within a written self-help format, which represents treatment as usual. The study is located within two 'Improving Access to Psychological Therapies' services in South West England, with both written self-help interventions supported by mental health paraprofessionals. Measures assessed at 4, 9, and 12 month follow-up include the following: CIS-R, PHQ-9, accelerometer recorded (4 months only) and self-reported PA, body mass index, blood pressure, Insomnia Severity Index, quality of life, and health and social care service use. Process evaluation will include analysis of recorded support sessions and patient and practitioner interviews. At the time of writing the study has recruited 60 patients. DISCUSSION: the feasibility outcomes will inform a definitive RCT to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the augmented BAcPAc written self-help intervention to reduce depression and depressive relapse, and bring about improvements across a range of physical health outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN74390532, 26.03.2013.

Background: Interventions promoting physical activity by General Practitioners (GPs) lack a strong evidence base. Recruiting participants to trials in primary care is challenging. We investigated the feasibility of (i) delivering three interventions to promote physical activity in inactive participants and (ii) different methods of participant recruitment and randomised allocation.Methods: We recruited general practices from Devon, Bristol and Coventry. We used a 2-by-2 factorial design for participant recruitment and randomisation. Recruitment strategies were either opportunistic (approaching patients attending their GP surgery) or systematic (selecting patients from practice lists and approaching them by letter). Randomisation strategies were either individual or by practice cluster. Feasibility outcomes included time taken to recruit the target number of participants within each practice. Participants were randomly allocated to one of three interventions: (i) written advice (control); (ii) brief GP advice (written advice plus GP advice on physical activity), and (iii) brief GP advice plus a pedometer to self-monitor physical activity during the trial. Participants allocated to written advice or brief advice each received a sealed pedometer to record their physical activity, and were instructed not to unseal the pedometer before the scheduled day of data collection. Participant level outcomes were reported descriptively and included the mean number of pedometer steps over a 7-day period, and European Quality of Life (EuroQoL)-5 dimensions (EQ-5D) scores, recorded at 12 weeks' follow-up.Results: We recruited 24 practices (12 using each recruitment method; 18 randomising by cluster, 6 randomising by individual participant), encompassing 131 participants. Opportunistic recruitment was associated with less time to target recruitment compared with systematic (mean difference (days) -54.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) -103.6; -6.2) but with greater loss to follow up (28.8% versus. 6.9%; mean difference 21.9% (95% CI 9.6%; 34.1%)). There were differences in the socio-demographic characteristics of participants according to recruitment method. There was no clear pattern of change in participant level outcomes from baseline to 12 weeks across the three arms.Conclusions: Delivering and trialling GP-led interventions to promote physical activity is feasible, but trial design influences time to participant recruitment, participant withdrawal, and possibly, the socio-demographic characteristics of participants.Trial registration number: ISRCTN73725618. © 2014 Warren et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Background Patients with chronic heart failure (HF) experience a marked reduction in their exercise capacity, health-related quality of life, and life expectancy. Despite substantive evidence supporting exercise training in HF, uncertainties remain in the interpretation and understanding of this evidence base. Clinicians and healthcare providers seek definitive estimates of impact on mortality, hospitalisation and health-related quality of life, and which HF patient subgroups are likely to most benefit. The original Exercise Training Meta-Analysis for Chronic Heart Failure (ExTraMATCH) individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis conducted in 2004 will be updated by the current collaboration (ExTraMATCH II), to investigate the effects of exercise training in HF. Methods Randomised controlled trials have been identified from the updated 2014 Cochrane systematic review and the original ExTraMATCH IPD meta-analysis with exercise training of 3 weeks' duration or more compared with a non-exercise control and a minimum follow-up of 6 months. Particular outcomes of interest are mortality, hospitalisation and health-related quality of life plus key baseline patient demographic and clinical data. Original IPD will be requested from the authors of all eligible trials; we will check original data and compile a master dataset. IPD meta-analyses will be conducted using a one-step approach where the IPD from all studies are modelled simultaneously whilst accounting for the clustering of participants with studies. Discussion the information from ExTraMATCH II will help inform future national and international clinical and policy decision-making on the use of exercise-based interventions in HF and improve the quality, design and reporting of future trials in this field. © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic heart failure (HF) experience a marked reduction in their exercise capacity, health-related quality of life, and life expectancy. Despite substantive evidence supporting exercise training in HF, uncertainties remain in the interpretation and understanding of this evidence base. Clinicians and healthcare providers seek definitive estimates of impact on mortality, hospitalisation and health-related quality of life, and which HF patient subgroups are likely to most benefit. The original Exercise Training Meta-Analysis for Chronic Heart Failure (ExTraMATCH) individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis conducted in 2004 will be updated by the current collaboration (ExTraMATCH II), to investigate the effects of exercise training in HF. METHODS: Randomised controlled trials have been identified from the updated 2014 Cochrane systematic review and the original ExTraMATCH IPD meta-analysis with exercise training of 3 weeks' duration or more compared with a non-exercise control and a minimum follow-up of 6 months. Particular outcomes of interest are mortality, hospitalisation and health-related quality of life plus key baseline patient demographic and clinical data. Original IPD will be requested from the authors of all eligible trials; we will check original data and compile a master dataset. IPD meta-analyses will be conducted using a one-step approach where the IPD from all studies are modelled simultaneously whilst accounting for the clustering of participants with studies. DISCUSSION: the information from ExTraMATCH II will help inform future national and international clinical and policy decision-making on the use of exercise-based interventions in HF and improve the quality, design and reporting of future trials in this field.

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley. &. Sons, Ltd. Meta-analysis for adverse events resulting from medical interventions has many challenges, in part due to small numbers of such events within primary studies. Furthermore, variability in drug dose, potential differences between drugs within the same pharmaceutical class and multiple indications for a specific treatment can all add to the complexity of the evidence base. This paper explores the use of synthesis methods, incorporating mixed treatment comparisons, to estimate the risk of adverse events for a medical intervention, while acknowledging and modelling the complexity of the structure of the evidence base. The motivating example was the effect on malignancy of three anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drugs (etanercept, adalimumab and infliximab) indicated to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Using data derived from 13 primary studies, a series of meta-analysis models of increasing complexity were applied. Models ranged from a straightforward comparison of anti-TNF against non-anti-TNF controls, to more complex models in which a treatment was defined by individual drug and its dose. Hierarchical models to allow 'borrowing strength' across treatment classes and dose levels, and models involving constraints on the impact of dose level, are described. These models provide a flexible approach to estimating sparse, often adverse, outcomes associated with interventions. Each model makes its own set of assumptions, and approaches to assessing goodness of fit of the various models will usually be extremely limited in their effectiveness, due to the sparse nature of the data. Both methodological and clinical considerations are required to fit realistically complex models in this area and to evaluate their appropriateness.

Meta-analysis for adverse events resulting from medical interventions has many challenges, in part due to small numbers of such events within primary studies. Furthermore, variability in drug dose, potential differences between drugs within the same pharmaceutical class and multiple indications for a specific treatment can all add to the complexity of the evidence base. This paper explores the use of synthesis methods, incorporating mixed treatment comparisons, to estimate the risk of adverse events for a medical intervention, while acknowledging and modelling the complexity of the structure of the evidence base. The motivating example was the effect on malignancy of three anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drugs (etanercept, adalimumab and infliximab) indicated to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Using data derived from 13 primary studies, a series of meta-analysis models of increasing complexity were applied. Models ranged from a straightforward comparison of anti-TNF against non-anti-TNF controls, to more complex models in which a treatment was defined by individual drug and its dose. Hierarchical models to allow 'borrowing strength' across treatment classes and dose levels, and models involving constraints on the impact of dose level, are described. These models provide a flexible approach to estimating sparse, often adverse, outcomes associated with interventions. Each model makes its own set of assumptions, and approaches to assessing goodness of fit of the various models will usually be extremely limited in their effectiveness, due to the sparse nature of the data. Both methodological and clinical considerations are required to fit realistically complex models in this area and to evaluate their appropriateness.

Background. Despite the high prevalence of postnatal depression (PND), few women seek help. Internet interventions
may overcome many of the barriers to PND treatment use. We report a phase II evaluation of a 12-session, modular,
guided Internet behavioural activation (BA) treatment modified to address postnatal-specific concerns [Netmums
Helping with Depression (NetmumsHWD)].
Method. To assess feasibility, we measured recruitment and attrition to the trial and examined telephone session support
and treatment adherence. We investigated sociodemographic and psychological predictors of treatment adherence.
Effectiveness outcomes were estimated with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), Generalized Anxiety
Disorder-7, Work and Social Adjustment Scale, Postnatal Bonding Questionnaire, and Social Provisions Scale.
Results. A total of 249 women were recruited via a UK parenting site, Netmums.com. A total of 83 women meeting
DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder were randomized to NetmumsHWD (n=41) or treatment-as-usual
(TAU; n=42). of the 83 women, 71 (86%) completed the EPDS at post-treatment, and 71% (59/83) at the 6-month
follow-up. Women completed an average of eight out of 12 telephone support sessions and five out of 12 modules.
Working women and those with less support completed fewer modules. There was a large effect size favouring
women who received NetmumsHWD on depression, work and social impairment, and anxiety scores at post-treatment
compared with women in the TAU group, and a large effect size on depression at 6 months post-treatment. There were
small effect sizes for postnatal bonding and perceived social support.
Conclusions. A supported, modular, Internet BA programme can be feasibly delivered to postpartum women, offering
promise to improve depression, anxiety and functioning.

BACKGROUND: Western industrialised nations face a large increase in the number of older people. People over the age of 60 years account for almost half of the 16.8 million hospital admissions in England from 2009 to 2010. During 2009-10, respiratory infections accounted for approximately 1 in 30 hospital admissions and 1 in 20 of the 51.5 million bed-days. OBJECTIVE: to determine the diagnostic accuracy and clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rapid molecular and near-patient diagnostic tests for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and Streptococcus pneumoniae infections in comparison with traditional laboratory culture. METHODS: We carried out a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate impact on prescribing and clinical outcomes of point-of-care tests (POCTs) for influenza a and B and pneumococcal infection, reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for influenza a and B and RSV a and B, and conventional culture for these pathogens. We evaluated diagnostic accuracy of POCTs for influenza and pneumococcal infection, RT-PCR for influenza and sputum culture for S. pneumoniae using samples collected during the RCT. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of POCTs for influenza a and B. We evaluated ease and speed of use of each test, process outcomes and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: There was no evidence of association between diagnostic group and prescribing or clinical outcomes. Using PCR as 'gold standard', Quidel Influenza A + B POCT detected 24.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 16.0% to 34.6%] of influenza infections (specificity 99.7%, 95% CI 99.2% to 99.9%); viral culture detected 21.6% (95% CI 13.5% to 31.6%; specificity 99.8%, 95% CI 99.4% to 100%). Using blood culture as 'gold standard', BinaxNOW pneumococcal POCT detected 57.1% (95% CI 18.4% to 90.1%) of pneumococcal infections (specificity 92.5%; 95% CI 90.6% to 94.1%); sputum culture detected 100% (95% CI 2.5% to 100%; specificity 97.2%, 95% CI 94.3% to 98.9%). Overall, pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity of POCTs for influenza from the literature were 74% (95% CI 67% to 80%) and 99% (95% CI 98% to 99%), respectively. Median intervals from specimen collection to test result were 15 minutes [interquartile range (IQR) 10-23 minutes) for Quidel Influenza A + B POCT, 20 minutes (IQR 15-30 minutes) for BinaxNOW pneumococcal POCT, 50.8 hours (IQR 44.3-92.6 hours) for semi-nested conventional PCR, 29.2 hours (IQR 26-46.9 hours) for real-time PCR, 629.6 hours (IQR 262.5-846.7 hours) for culture of influenza and 84.4 hours (IQR 70.7-137.8 hours) and 71.4 hours (IQR 69.15-84.0 hours) for culture of S. pneumoniae in blood and sputum, respectively. Both POCTs were rated straightforward and undemanding; blood culture was moderately complex and all other tests were complex. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of each diagnostic strategy were similar. Incrementally, PCR was most cost-effective (78.3% probability at a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY). Few patients were admitted within a timescale conducive to treatment with a neuraminidase inhibitor according to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance. LIMITATIONS: the accuracy study was limited by inadequate gold standards. CONCLUSIONS: all tests had limitations. We found no evidence that POCTs for influenza or S. pneumoniae, or PCR for influenza or RSV influenced antimicrobial prescribing or clinical outcomes. The total costs and QALYs of each diagnostic strategy were similar, although, incrementally, PCR was the most cost-effective strategy. The analysis does not support routine use of POCTs for either influenza or pneumococcal antigen for adults presenting with acute cardiopulmonary conditions, but suggests that conventional viral culture for clinical diagnosis should be replaced by PCR. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN21521552. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 18, No. 36. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Rationale: the effects of acute bouts of physical activity (PA) on Strength of Desire (SoD) and Desire to Smoke (DtS) using individual participant data (IPD) from 19 acute randomised controlled studies were quantified. However, there is a need to identify factors influencing this relationship. Objectives: to understand who most benefits from PA, whether changes in affect mediate these effects and whether any specific attributes of PA are associated with cigarette cravings. Methods: IPD (n = 930) contributed to one-stage IPD meta-analyses. Participants engaging in PA were compared against controls, using post-intervention DtS and SoD (when DtS is not available) with baseline adjustments. The craving scales were linearly rescaled to 0-100 % (a mean difference between groups of -10 would indicate that post-intervention cravings were 10 % lower in the PA compared with the control group). Demographic, smoking and other characteristics were examined as predictors and potential moderators, whereas change in affect was considered as a mediator. PA was categorised according to type, duration and intensity, to determine PA attributes associated with cravings reduction. Results: None of the included covariates were shown to moderate or mediate the effects of PA. Intensity of PA was significantly associated with a reduction in cravings; moderate and vigorous intensity PA offered the most benefits. A one-stage IPD meta-analysis yielded effect sizes of -9.22 (-15.24; -3.20) for light, -34.57 (-42.64; -26.50) for moderate and -31.29 (-38.00; -24.57) for vigorous intensity in comparison with controls. Conclusions: Moderate intensity PA could be recommended to all smokers regardless of demographic, smoking and other characteristics. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Background: Despite the high prevalence of postnatal depression (PND), few women seek help. The internet may increase timely access to treatment. We report a randomized controlled trial of a minimal intervention internet Behavioral Activation (iBA) treatment modified to address postnatal specific concerns (Postnatal-iBA). Methods: Women (n=910) recruited via a popular UK parenting site, Netmums.com, scoring above 12 on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) were randomly assigned to receive either Postnatal-iBA delivered or treatment-as-usual (TAU). We investigated the feasibility (recruitment, trial and treatment adherence) and effectiveness (depression status EPDS > 12) of the intervention. Results: Recruitment was excellent; 1261 women, 961 of whom met inclusion criteria, signed up to the trial within two 2-week recruitment periods. Thirty-eight percent (343/910) of women completed the 15-week outcome assessment. of those who completed 15-week assessment, fewer exceeded the depression cutoff in the Postnatal-iBA group (n = 66/181) compared to TAU (n=91/162). Assuming all non-respondents remained depressed, the Postnatal-iBA effect was reduced. Limitations: the study suffered from high attrition and future trials need to consider strategies for improving outcome completion. Some women reported struggles "keeping up" with the treatment. Conclusions: a minimal support, widely accessible internet Behavioral Activation program for PND is feasible to deliver to community populations when embedded within popular parenting sites. For women who provide outcome data, postnatal-iBA offers promise as an effective treatment for PND. The addition of support may reduce women's struggles to keep pace with the treatment. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The study aims to compare anti-obesity interventions in a single evidence synthesis framework. Electronic databases were searched for randomized controlled trials of orlistat, rimonabant or sibutramine reporting weight or body mass index (BMI) change from baseline at 3, 6 or 12 months. A mixed treatment comparison was used to combine direct and indirect trial evidence. Ninety-four studies involving 24,808 individuals were included; 83 trials included data on weight change and 41 on BMI change. All results are in comparison with placebo. The active drugs were all effective at reducing weight and BMI. At 3 months, orlistat reduced weight by -2.65 kg (95% credibility interval -4.00 kg, -1.31 kg). For sibutramine, 15 mg gave a greater reduction than 10 mg at 12 months, -6.35 kg versus -5.42 kg, respectively. Rimonabant reduced weight by -11.23 kg at 3 months and -4.55 kg at 12 months. Lifestyle advice alone also reduced weight at 6 and 12 months, but was less effective than the pharmacological interventions. In conclusion, modest weight reductions were seen for all pharmacological interventions. Those interventions which have now been withdrawn from use (sibutramine and rimonabant) seem to be the most effective, implying that there may be a place in clinical practice for similar drugs if side effects could be avoided.

Background: Obesity [defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2] represents a considerable public health problem and is associated with a significant range of comorbidities and an increased mortality risk. The primary aim of the management of obesity is to achieve weight reduction in the interests of health. For obese patients who cannot achieve or maintain a healthy weight by non-pharmacological means, drug therapy is recommended in combination with non-pharmacological interventions such as dietary modifications and exercise. Objective: to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three pharmacological interventions in obese patients. Data sources: Clinical effectiveness data used in the meta-analysis were sourced from articles identified in a systematic review of the literature. Data used to inform transitions to obesity-related comorbidities were derived from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). The results of the meta-analysis and GPRD analyses informed the economic model supplemented by data from the Health Survey for England and other UK-specific data sourced from the literature. Review methods: a systematic literature review was conducted of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of orlistat, sibutramine and rimonabant within their licensed indications for the treatment of obese patients. Electronic bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library databases and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) were searched in January 2009, and the reference lists of relevant articles were checked. Studies were included if they compared orlistat, sibutramine or rimonabant with lifestyle and/or exercise advice (standard care), placebo or metformin. Results: Overall, 94 studies involving 24,808 individuals were included in the clinical metaanalysis. Eighty-three trials included data on weight change, 41 included data on BMI change and 45 and 36 studies reported on 5% and 10% body weight loss, respectively. Overall, the results show that the active drug interventions are all effective at reducing weight and BMI compared with placebo. In the case of sibutramine, the higher dose (15 mg) resulted in a greater reduction than the lower dose (10 mg). Generally, the data quality of the trials included was low with poor reporting of standard errors and standard deviations. Results from the BMI risk models derived from the GPRD showed consistent increases in risk with increasing BMI. Adjustments for key confounders, such as age, sex and smoking status, were found to be statistically significant at the 5% level, in all risk models. Applying linear models to estimate BMI trajectories, for the diabetic cohort, an average increase in BMI of 0.040 per year for both men and women was observed. The non-diabetic cohort model showed an increase in BMI of 0.175 per year for women and 0.145 per year for men. The results of the cost-effectiveness analyses suggest that sibutramine 15 mg dominates the other three active interventions and the net benefit analyses show that sibutramine 15 mg is the most cost-effective alternative for thresholds > £2000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). However, both sibutramine and rimonabant have been withdrawn because of safety concerns relating to potential treatment-induced fatal adverse events. If the proportion of patients who experienced a fatal adverse event was > 1.8% (1.5%, 1.0%) for sibutramine 15 mg (sibutramine 10 mg, rimonabant) the treatment would not be considered cost-effective when using a threshold of £20,000 per QALY. Limitations: the clinical review did not include all possible lifestyle comparators, with the inclusion limited to only those trials included one of the active drug interventions. We also excluded all studies not reported in English. Although the clinical review included data from 94 studies, the quality of data was generally low, particularly in terms of the reporting of standard deviation. There was also inconsistency between the results of the mixedtreatment comparison (MTC) and the pair-wise analyses. Conclusion: the MTC of anti-obesity treatments shows that all the active treatments are effective at reducing weight and BMI. The economic results show that, compared with placebo, the treatments are all cost-effective when using a threshold of £20,000 per QALY, and, within the limitations of the data available, sibutramine 15 mg dominates the other three interventions. This work has highlighted many areas of methodological research that could be explored, including assessing inconsistencies within a network to determine differences between the results of pair-wise and MTC analyses; the use of meta-regression methods to look for effect modifiers; exploring the effect of local publication bias; and the use of joint models to analyse the repeated measures of BMI and the time-to-event processes simultaneously. Funding: the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2012.

BACKGROUND: Effective antigen-sparing vaccines are needed to confront pandemic influenza. Whole-virion and oil-in-water adjuvanted vaccines are the most effective formulations against H5N1 avian influenza. We assessed the safety and immunogenicity in adults in the UK of pandemic H1N1 whole-virion vaccine and oil-in-water adjuvanted vaccine purchased by the UK government in 2009. METHODS: in our randomised, observer-blind, parallel-group, controlled trial, healthy adults aged 18-44 years, 45-64 years, and 65 years and older (from Oct 19, to Nov 12, 2009) received two doses of vaccine given 21 days apart: either 7·5 μg of haemagglutinin formulated as whole-virion vaccine, or 3·75 μg of haemagglutinin formulated as split-virion vaccine with AS03(A) oil-in-water adjuvant. Assignment was by a computer-generated code, with random permuted blocks of two, four, and six. All participants and investigators were unaware of vaccine assignments. The trial was done at three hospitals in the UK. We measured antibody titres with a haemagglutination-inhibition assay at baseline; 7, 14, and 21 days after each vaccination; and at 6 months after the first dose. Primary outcome was vaccine immunogenicity of the full analysis set by the EU Committee of Human Medicinal Products licensing criteria. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN92328241. FINDINGS: at day 0, baseline antibody (titre ≥1/8) was detected in 44 (13%) of 347 participants. Sera from 95% to 98% of participants were assessed for immunogenicity on days 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, and 42, and at 6 months. On day 21 after one dose of adjuvanted AS03(A) or whole-virion vaccine, 63 (94%, 95 CI 85·4-98·4) of 67 and 50 (71%, 59·4-81·6) of 70 participants aged 18-44 years, 51 (77%, 65·3-86·7) of 66 and 26 (39%, 27·1-51·5) of 67 aged 45-64 years, and 19 (51%, 34·4-68·1) of 37 and 11 (32%, 17·4-50·5) of 34 aged 65 years or older had titres of 1:40 or greater. On day 42 (21 days after the second dose), 64 (100%, 94·4-100) of 64 and 49 (73%, 60·9-83·2) of 67 participants aged 18-44 years, 59 (91%, 81·0-96·5) of 65 and 29 (43·9%, 31·7-56·7) of 66 aged 45-64 years, and 28 (76%, 58·8-88·2) of 37 and 12 (36%, 20·4-54·9) of 33 aged 65 years or older had titres of 1/40 or greater. At 6 months, 62 (98%, 91·5-100) of 63 and 54 (78%, 66·7-87·3) of 69 participants aged 18-44 years, 54 (82%, 70·4-90·2) of 66 and 37 (55%, 42·6-67·4) of 67 aged 45-64 years, and 21 (57%, 39·5-72·9) of 37 and 10 (29%, 15·1-47·5) of 34 aged 65 years or older had titres of 1/40 or greater. There were no vaccine-related serious adverse events. Whole-virion vaccine was associated with fewer local and systemic reactions than adjuvanted vaccine. INTERPRETATION: AS03(A)-adjuvanted vaccine was more immunogenic against pandemic influenza a H1N1 virus than whole-virion vaccine and offers greater antigen-sparing capacity. A two-dose strategy should be considered for older people. FUNDING: Department of Health, National Institute for Health Research Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre.

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the immunogenicity of a two-dose schedule of Baxter cell-cultured, non-adjuvanted, whole-virion H1N1 vaccine, and GlaxoSmithKline AS03(A)-adjuvanted split-virion H1N1 vaccine with respect to the EU Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensing criteria. DESIGN: an age-stratified, randomised, observer-blind, parallel-group, multicentre controlled trial was carried out in volunteers aged ≥ 18-44, ≥ 45-64 and ≥ 65 years. SETTING: Three teaching hospitals in the UK (Leicester Royal Infirmary, Leicester; Nottingham City Hospital, Nottingham; and Royal Hallamshire Hospital, Sheffield). PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred and forty-seven subjects were identified and randomised to AS03(A)-adjuvanted split-virion H1N1 vaccine or whole-virion (WV) vaccine in age groups [≥ 18-44 years (n = 140), ≥ 45-64 years (n = 136) and ≥ 65 years (n = 71)]. INTERVENTIONS: Vaccine was administered by intramuscular injection into the deltoid muscle of the non-dominant arm. One hundred and seventy-five randomised subjects were allocated AS03(A)-adjuvanted split H1N1 vaccine; one hundred and sixty-nine subjects had a second dose of the same vaccine 21 days later. One hundred and seventy-two subjects were allocated WV vaccine; one hundred and seventy-one subjects had a second dose of the same vaccine 21 days later. Serum samples for antibody measurements were collected on days 0 (before the first vaccination), 7, 14, 21 (before the second vaccination), 28, 35, 42 and 180. Subjects were observed for local and systemic reactions for 30 minutes after each injection, and for the next 7 days they recorded, in self-completed diaries, the severity of solicited local (pain, bruising, erythema and swelling) and systemic symptoms (chills, malaise, muscle aches, nausea and headache), oral temperature and use of analgesic medications. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Vaccine immunogenicity using the CHMP and the FDA licensing criteria. Antibody titres were measured using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) and microneutralisation (MN) assays at baseline and 7, 14 and 21 days after each vaccination and at day 180. The three immunogenicity criteria end points were the seroprotection rate, the seroconversion rate and the mean-fold titre elevation. RESULTS: Both vaccine doses were given in 340 subjects (98%). Data from 680 (99%) of 687 issued diary cards were returned. Sera were obtained from 340 (98.0%), 333 (96.0%), 341 (98.3%), 331 (95.4%), 329 (94.8%) and 332 (95.7%) subjects on days 7, 14, 21, 28, 35 and 42, respectively. Three hundred and forty-six and 345 subjects were included in the safety and immunogenicity analyses, respectively. Prevaccination antibody was detected by HI (titre ≥ 1 : 8) and MN (titre ≥ 1 : 10) in 14% and 31% of subjects, respectively. Among the 298 (85.9%) subjects without baseline antibody on HI assay, a titre of ≥ 1 : 40 (seroprotection) was achieved after a single dose of AS03(A)-adjuvanted vaccine and WV vaccine by day 21 in 93.0% and 65.5%, respectively, of subjects between 18 and 44 years, 76.4% and 36.1% of subjects between 45 and 64 years, and 53.1% and 30.0% of subjects ≥ 65 years. Among all 347 subjects, a titre of ≥ 1 : 40 was achieved after a single dose of AS03(A)-adjuvanted vaccine and WV vaccine by day 21 in 94.0% and 71.4%, respectively, of subjects between 18 and 44 years, 77.3% and 38.8% of subjects between 45 and 64 years, and 51.4% and 32.4% of subjects ≥ 65 years. The age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for adjuvanted compared with WV vaccine, in terms of seroprotection, was 4.42 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.63 to 7.44, p < 0.001]. On day 42, among subjects without baseline antibody on HI assay, a titre of ≥ 1 : 40 was achieved after the second dose of AS03(A)-adjuvanted vaccine and WV vaccine by 100% and 67.9%, respectively, of subjects between 18 and 44 years, 89.3% and 41% of subjects between 45 and 64 years, and 76.5% and 34.5% of subjects ≥ 65 years. Among all 347 subjects, a titre of ≥ 1 : 40 was achieved on day 42 after the second dose of AS03(A)-adjuvanted vaccine and WV vaccine in 100% and 73.1%, respectively, of subjects between 18 and 44 years, 90.8% and 43.9% of subjects between 45 and 64 years, and 75.7% and 36.4% of subjects ≥ 65 years. The age-adjusted OR for adjuvanted vaccine compared with WV vaccine, in terms of seroprotection, was 11.21 (95% CI 5.80 to 21.64, p < 0.001). Age-related decline in antibody response occurred after both doses of both vaccines. WV vaccine was associated with fewer local and systemic reactions and lower immune responses than was AS03(A)-adjuvanted vaccine. The most frequent solicited local event was pain, reported by 28% and 76% of subjects after either dose of WV or adjuvanted vaccine, respectively (OR 7.71, 95% CI 4.48 to 13.24, p < 0.0001). The most common systemic event was myalgia, reported by 24% and 49% of subjects after either dose of WV or adjuvanted vaccine (OR 2.99, 95% CI 1.86 to 4.80, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: AS03(A)-adjuvanted 2009 H1N1 vaccine is more immunogenic and provides greater antigen-sparing capacity than WV 2009 H1N1 vaccine. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN92328241. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 14, No. 55. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Production of synthetic rubber involves exposure to several potentially harmful chemicals. The authors carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of workers in the rubber-producing industry. Data were obtained from computerized literature searches of several databases from their inception through December 2003. The reference lists of identified articles were inspected for further relevant articles. The authors conducted random-effects meta-analyses of log standardized mortality ratios (SMRs)/standardized incidence ratios. Heterogeneity between study results was explored through subgroup analyses and meta-regression on cohort demographic factors and study quality indicators. The authors identified 36 published articles reporting information on 31 different cohort groups. The meta-SMR was 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.82, 0.91) for all-cause mortality (28 cohorts) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.01) for all malignant neoplasms (27 cohorts). Heterogeneity was observed for these endpoints and for the majority of disease-specific outcomes. Statistically significant excesses were observed for diabetes (meta-SMR=1.36, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.59) (five cohorts) and leukemia (meta-SMR=1.21, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.43) (16 cohorts), the latter particularly for persons working exclusively in nontire manufacturing (meta-SMR=1.70, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.54) (four cohorts). Excesses highlighted in previous narrative reviews were not substantiated. Interpretation of these results is complicated by substantial unexplainable heterogeneity; small excesses in specific mortality outcomes may have been disguised by the healthy worker effect.